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Dealers Prepared for Multi-Year Sales Downturn Claas Sourcing Tractors from SDF, Planning Entry to U.S. Market

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Dealers Prepared for Multi-Year Sales Downturn Claas Sourcing Tractors from SDF, Planning Entry to U.S. Market August 15, 2014 Vol. 20, Issue 8 • Machinery Loans Slow • Kubota Stays in Black • Mtron Making Waves Dealers Prepared for Multi-Year Sales Downturn Farm equipment dealers see the 2014 normal degree of farmers delayed to the declining business conditions. slowdown in sales as probably the purchases this year in the hope that “On a scale of 0-10, dealers responded beginning of a period of softer farm commodity prices would recover, with an average of 6.24, indicating a equipment sales, particularly in high potentially exacerbating the effect Continued on page 8 horsepower machines, that in all likeli- on equipment demand as prices have hood will stretch into 2015. As a result, continued to deteriorate. Deere deal- Dealers’ Expectations for more than half of the dealers surveyed ers indicated a greater degree of pes- Equipment Sales in 2014 by UBS Investment Research in June simism on each of these topics than say they’re “less willing” to trade for AGCO or CNHI dealer networks.” Up more high horsepower equipment. He adds, “Dealers [are] braced for a than 5% Down more Summarizing the results of the 34th multi-year downturn.” 13% than 10% 19% UBS Agricultural Dealer Survey that Sales Slowdown. Overall, 56% of Up less included nearly 250 responses, analyst dealers polled expect sales in 2014 than 5% 16% Steve Fisher said in a note to inves- to be lower than they were in 2013, Down 5% tors, that he expects stiff headwinds while 29% expect improved sales. Flat 25% to equipment purchases coming from For 2015, 48% anticipate lower sales 15% Down shrinking demand in both 2014 and and 17% expect sales to increase. The less 2015, as well as dealers’ unwillingness remainder, 35%, project machinery than 5% 12% to accept high horsepower trade-ins, sales next year to be flat. falling corn prices needed to buoy Despite their less than optimistic More than half (56%) of farm equipment dealers surveyed see sales declining for demand, and declining used equip- outlook, Fisher said the UBS survey the remainder of 2014. ment pricing and high inventories. found dealers don’t appear to have “Also, dealers noted a higher than been caught off guard when it comes Source: UBS Agricultural Dealer Survey #34 Claas Sourcing Tractors from SDF, Planning Entry to U.S. Market It’s not uncommon for tractor man- almost 22% of €3.82 billion ($5.2 where they plummeted by three- ufacturers to strike co-production billion) revenues were generated in quarters to just 25% of what they and marketing agreements, but a deal Germany, 23% in neighboring France. had been before import tariffs hit between Claas and Same Deutz-Fahr An additional18% comes from the sales of imported models. They also for tractors in the 70-110 horsepower rest of Western Europe, 21.5% from dropped by a similar amount across range appears to have greater strate- Central and Eastern Europe and 15% other Eastern Europe markets. gic significance than usual. from the rest of the world combined. The Krasnodar project will not only Claas has embarked on an intensive Two strategic actions are being ease the sales price impact of tariffs investment and expansion program undertaken in markets with strong but will also meet growing demand in aimed at significant growth over the growth potential. First, the €85 mil- Eastern Europe for bigger combines. The next 5 years. It plans to increase rev- lion ($113 million) acquisition of expansion will allow the plant to start enues by 6-16% across major regions Chinese combine maker Jinyee pro- building Lexion high-capacity combines of the world, and by as much as 30% vides two production plants and alongside the mid-capacity Tucano mod- in Asia/Pacific. access to that huge market. els already assembled there. The German group’s overriding Second, Claas is almost tripling The plant will also step up assem- objective is to become a truly global the size of its Krasnodar factory in bly of large tractors for the Russian player. In its 2012-13 financial year, Russia to bolster combine sales there, Continued on page 3 The contents of this report represent our interpretation and analysis of information generally available to the public or released by responsible individuals in the subject companies, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. It does not contain material provided to us in confidence by our clients. Individual companies reported on and analyzed by Lessiter Publications Inc., may be clients of this and other Lessiter Publications Inc. services. This information is not furnished in connection with a sale or offer to sell securities or in connection with the solicitation of an offer to buy securities. Farm Lending Continued to Rise in 2Q, But Not for Equipment In the August issue of its “Agricultural Finance Databook,” They also point out that although crop insurance may the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reports that offer a measure of revenue protection in 2014, a prolonged agricultural banks nationally were able to sustain strong period of low crop prices could raise concerns about profits that continue to support favorable loan terms to increased leverage and available working capital. the ag sector. Lending to the livestock sector in the second Future Demand. The bankers surveyed anticipate that quarter, which rose significantly, accounted for most of the future demand for loans will increase, as farmers will need gains during the quarter. to borrow for working capital. “With lower incomes and The report says that total non-real estate farm borrowing increased borrowing, bankers in the Chicago, Kansas City, in the second quarter rose 5% from a year ago, “driven by a Minneapolis and Richmond Districts reported a slight drop sharp rise in the volume of loans to the livestock sector and in loan repayment rates in the first quarter,” say the Fed additional borrowing for current operating expenses. In con- economists. “Loan repayment rates, however, held near trast, declining loan volumes for farm machinery and equip- year-ago levels in the Dallas District and improved in the ment pointed to further slowing in farm capital spending.” San Francisco and St. Louis Districts.” Non-Real Estate Farm Average Effective Interest Rates on New Loan Volumes by Purpose Non-Real Estate Farm Loans by Bank Size Billion Dollars Percent Percent 100 7.0 7.0 90 2012: Q2 6.5 Large Bank 6.5 80 2013: Q2 Small or Midsize Bank 70 6.0 6.0 2014: Q2 60 5.5 5.5 50 40 5.0 5.0 30 4.5 4.5 20 10 4.0 4.0 0 All Non-Real Current Feeder Other Farm Other Non-Real 3.5 3.5 Estate Farm Operating Livestock Livestock Machinery and Estate Farm Loans Expenses Equipment Loans 3.0 3.0 Total non-real estate farm borrowing in the second quarter rose 5%, 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 but loan volumes for farm machinery and equipment declined. Average effective interest rates on non-real estate farm loans have continued to trend down at both large and small-to-midsize banks. Source: Agricultural Finance Databook, Table A.3 Source: Agricultural Finance Databook, Table A.5 Fed economists Nathan Kauffman and Maria Akers, who authored the latest report, say, “Looking forward, the rise The report goes on to say that loans for purchasing farm in new loan volumes captured by the May 2014 Survey of real estate slowed in the second quarter. These accounted Terms of Bank Lending to Farmers suggested that outstand- for nearly 10% of new loan originations in May 2014 vs. ing farm debt could reach another high by the end of the almost 15% in May 2013. “The smaller share of real estate second quarter. Even though high prices for feeder livestock loan originations represented a 33% year-over-year decline may persist, the financial strain on feedlot operators might in the volume of new loans made for farm real estate in the be lessened somewhat by improved profit margins due to second quarter,” say Kauffman and Akers. lower feed costs and high prices for fed cattle and hogs.” Crop Pressures. They add that pressure on the crop sec- AEI Copyright Notice tor is increasing and profitability could be more tenuous if crop prices remain low and production costs stay elevated, Ag Equipment Intelligence is a copyrighted publication of further increasing the need for debt financing for working Lessiter Publications. Copying an entire issue to share with capital. “The recent uptick in the number of loan renewals others, by any means, is illegal. Duplicating of individual items for internal use is permitted only with permission of and extensions and softening of loan repayment rates in the publisher. Licensing agreements that allow distribution of Federal Reserve Districts with strong ties to the crop sector Ag Equipment Intelligence to a specified number of readers will be indicators to watch regarding the environment for are available by contacting Lessiter Publications at 262-782- agricultural financing,” say Kauffman and Akers. 4480, ext. 408. AG EQUIPMENT INTELLIGENCE is published monthly for U.S., Canada and Mexico print subscriptions are $349 the farm equipment industry by Lessiter Publications Inc., 225 per year. Save $50 by receiving Ag Equipment Intelligence Regency Ct., Suite 100, Brookfield, WI 53008-0624. © 2014 by each month via E-mail Internet access at only $299 per year. Lessiter Publications Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction in any International print subscriptions are $449 per year. Send sub- form of this newsletter content is strictly forbidden without the scription orders to: Ag Equipment Intelligence, P.O. Box 624, prior written consent of the publisher.
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