Scenario of a Renewable Energy System in 2030 for Turku Finland
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Scenario of a renewable energy system in 2030 for Turku Finland Kimmo Stenberg Master Thesis 13 June 2016 Scenario of a renewable energy system in 2030 for Turku Finland Author: Kimmo Stenberg Student number: 4324978 Master: Industrial Ecology, Delft University of technology, Leiden University Course code: 4413TRP30Y Graduation Committee: Dr. ir. J.N. Quist, Section of Energy and Industry, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology Ir. S. Broersma, Section Climate Design & Sustainability, Faculty of Architecture, Delft University of Technology Prof. dr. ir. A.A.J.F. van den Dobbelsteen, Section Climate Design & Sustainability, Faculty of Architecture, Delft University of Technology II Preface This thesis was done in order to complete my Master’s degree in Industrial Ecology at the Leiden University and at the Delft University of Technology. The subject of this thesis is about achieving a fully renewable energy system in Turku Finland. I am interested in this topic, because Turku is my home town and because I have been following the progress of implementing renewable energy systems in Finland for several years now. I am also interested in general about renewable energy technology and what solutions it can bring for the future energy systems and what kind of constraints it has. This study is seen as a highly useful source of information for the build up of the future renewable energy system in Turku and offers a roadmap towards a renewable energy system for the stakeholders in Turku. Although this thesis was an individual project I would like to say thank you to some people who supported me during this thesis. First, many thanks to my supervisors Jaco Quist and Siebe Broersma for supporting me and adding value to my thesis through their experience and feedback. I would also like to say thank you to the people who I interviewed for this thesis and to other people who provided me important information. A special thank you to my contact in the Turku municipality Risto Veivo who enabled my research start up in Turku and who provided me important information during my research. Finally, I want to say a very special thank you to my family for supporting me during the whole course of my studies. Without their support I could not have achieved this. III Summary This research determines how the change towards a completely renewable energy system inside Turku could be realised and what are the potentials, barriers and possibilities of the transition to this system. The methodological basis for my thesis comes from the Master’s thesis “Scenarios for Sustainable Energy on Texel” by Ricken (2012), which researches how to develop and implement locally a sustainable and self-sufficient energy system. The Ricken methodology combined the participatory backcasting and sustainable energy landscape methods in order to explore the subject. However, Ricken (2012) explored the Wadden island Texel in the Netherlands, which cannot be considered as an urban area like the city of Turku in Finland. Therefore, the literature review of my thesis will offer insight to the research that is currently taking place in an urban environment and which bears immediate relevance to my thesis. Furthermore, the literature review will present developments concerning the methods of backcasting and sustainable energy landscape in order to elaborate the Ricken methodology and show shortcomings to these methods. Hence, the methodology will be strengthened and guided towards an exploration of a more populous area. The objective of this Master’s thesis is to find out the potentials, barriers and possibilities for developing and implementing a renewable energy system that can make the city of Turku energy independent by 2030 and to give recommendations concerning the steps that need to be taken in order to develop and implement this renewable energy system. The research will be done by gaining insight to the technological, economic, cultural, institutional and spatial aspects of the case study and by finding recommendations from other case studies already conducted for this subject. The municipality of Turku will be the research area and only the energy demand of Turku’s premises and technical structure (public lighting) will be taken into account. This study encompasses the energy production, distribution, storage and the energy efficiency of the RES. The main research question of this research is: What are the potentials, barriers and possibilities for developing and implementing a renewable energy system that can make the municipality of Turku energy independent by 2030 and what steps need to be taken to achieve this? In the research part of this thesis, first the present conditions in the municipality of Turku were identified. This included aspects like landscape characteristics, climate conditions, employment and economical situation, education, present energy system and renewable energy potentials in Turku. The landscape characteristics indicated that Turku has a very diverse landscape and many protected areas and protected buildings. The present energy system analysis showed that the transition towards renewable energy production is well on its way due to the large investments made in the municipality, but due to Turku’s high energy demand there is still considerable amount of further actions to be taken. Furthermore, the energy potentials evaluation revealed that solar and biomass energy have a big potential in Turku but also potentials of other forms of renewable energy production should be still studied. Moreover, energy saving potential of premises in Turku was found to be moderate. IV Also the current developments related to the renewable energy system in Turku were presented. This included political, economic, social, technological and regulatory developments. Also the motives for developing a renewable energy system were indicated. One important motive was found out to be positive economical effect that building a renewable energy system would give to Turku. Finally, this part presented the initiatives and projects related to the renewable energy system in Turku. One very important project is the Skanssi project, where it is studied how a two way low temperature district heating network can be built for the area of Skanssi in Turku. Furthermore, the most important stakeholders and their power interest grid were presented in order to find out which actors are most crucial in reaching the objective of this thesis. This part revealed that the municipality of Turku, Turku Energia and Turun Seudun Energiantuotanto are the key players in the build up of a renewable energy system in Turku. Next, the energy demand in Turku in 2030 and the exogenous variables were determined. This study assumed that the energy demand will be the same in 2030 as currently. Then, based on the present conditions, developments and exogenous variables, a vision and scenario was built that presents the different aspects of Turku in 2030 related to its renewable energy system. Only one scenario was built, because it was seen that several different actions are together needed in order to build energy independence in Turku. In this scenario there are centralized and decentralized renewable energy production, moderate energy savings and high importance is put to energy storage, smart grid and heating network. Furthermore, important in this scenario is that the residents of Turku have a positive attitude towards the renewable energy system and that they are willing to pay a higher energy price. Based on the built scenario the spatial interventions, needed changes for the vision and drivers and barriers of the vision were determined. The spatial interventions part showed suitable areas of renewable energy technologies in Turku. The changes, drivers and barriers were divided into political, economic, socio-cultural, organizational, technological, regulatory and spatial aspects. Many needed changes, drivers and barriers of the formed vision were indentified and presented in this thesis. Finally, the pathway and follow up agenda towards reaching the formed vision were presented. Important aspects of these sections are the need to create clearer governance of energy matters in the municipality, orient policies towards energy conservation and centralized and decentralized energy production, improve and increase the cooperation among the stakeholders, increase investments and the implementation of renewable energy technologies. This thesis also highlights the shortcomings and weaknesses of this study and the subjects for future study. One important subject for future study is to thoroughly evaluate the possibilities of energy storage and smart grid in Turku and the evaluation of the energy storage potential. To conclude this research it can be said that the energy independence with renewable energy sources in Turku was not able to be achieved in this study. The electricity demand of the city can be supplied fully from renewable sources, but this includes some external sources. This means that if the renewable electricity independence in Turku is wanted to be achieved, additional renewable electricity production technologies need to be implemented inside of the municipal boundaries. Furthermore, the heat demand cannot be fully supplied with renewable sources. This means that if the renewable heat independence is wanted to be achieved, additional renewable heat production V technologies need to be implemented inside of the municipal boundaries. Indications for additional