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M&A in the Confectionery Industry

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M&A in the Confectionery Industry M&A IN THE CONFECTIONERY INDUSTRY: THE EVALUATION OF A PROPOSED COMBINATION BETWEEN HERSHEY’S & FERRERO Liliana Fiúza dos Santos Project submitted as partial requirement for the conferral of Master in Finance Supervisor: Professor Pedro Leite Inácio, Assistant Professor, ISCTE Business School, Department of Finance October 2016 The evaluation of a proposed combination between Hershey’s and Ferrero i The evaluation of a proposed combination between Hershey’s and Ferrero Acknowledgments To my parents and siblings for their unconditional support. To Pedro, my haven. To my friends for the encouragement. To Professor Pedro Inácio for his patience. To my colleagues from CaixaBI, particularly Pedro Carneiro, for their knowledge sharing. ii The evaluation of a proposed combination between Hershey’s and Ferrero Resumo A indústria de confeitaria tem ostentado uma considerável consolidação através das atividades de M&A, especulando-se a sua continuidade, atentando a atual inércia dos mercados desenvolvidos – e principais responsáveis pelo desenvolvimento da indústria -, bem como a inexistência de uma posição global verdadeiramente preponderante. Duas empresas particularmente embutidas neste paradigma são a cotada americana Hershey's – com a atividade centralizada nos EUA - e a empresa familiar italiana Ferrero – a atuar fundamentalmente na Europa. Com efeito, reconhecendo ambas as posições de liderança nos respetivos mercados de atuação e, simultaneamente, a necessidade de diversificação geográfica, cujo sucesso depende da experiência e conhecimentos regionais, é absolutamente percetível a complementaridade existente entre ambas. Adicionalmente, uma possível combinação permitiria a contestação da liderança global e, consequentemente, uma maior apropriação das oportunidades existentes. O presente projeto visa, portanto, deliberar e quantificar o potencial de criação de valor de uma eventual combinação entre as empresas Hershey's e Ferrero. A expurgação de resultados e conclusões relevantes baseia-se numa estrutura metodológica caracterizada pela valorização dos ativos stand-alone e da empresa resultante, seguindo uma abordagem DCF, bem como a estimativa das sinergias esperadas, recorrendo à prefiguração das atividades numa ótica de stand-alone. No caso vertente, conjetura-se uma criação de valor de c. € 7 mil milhões, respeitante a uma apreciação de 20%, maioritariamente justificada por ganhos operacionais. Embora o racional económico subjacente favoreça a realização da transação, existem outros fatores que poderão obstrui-la, nomeadamente a possível recusa dos atuais proprietários na partilha ou perda do controlo sobre o ativo atualmente detido. Palavras-chave: avaliação de empresas, criação de valor, indústria de confeitaria e sinergias iii The evaluation of a proposed combination between Hershey’s and Ferrero Abstract The confectionery industry has been subject to a notable consolidation through M&A activities. Such tendency is expected to persist, regarding industry maturity in developed markets – the main responsible for industry status –, along with the absence of a global player with a truly dominant market position. Two confectionery companies that fulfil these criteria are Hershey’s – a listed American player with centralized operations in the US – and Ferrero – an Italian family-owned business essentially focused in Europe. In effect, the existing leadership positions of both players in their respective markets, along with their geographical diversification need – where the knowledge about regional markets is crucial – leads to a possible complementary strategy amongst both. Moreover, a business combination between them would allow to challenge the market leader, taking advantage of greater market opportunities. Therefore, the current project discusses and quantifies the value-creation potential associated with an M&A deal between Hershey’s and Ferrero. In order to achieve consistent results and relevant conclusions, is it applied a methodology framework characterized by the stand-alone and combined companies valuations, considering income and market methodologies, as well synergies estimation, concerning stand-alone business performance forecasting. In accordance, the current business proposal is intended to create an economic value of about 7 billion euro, i.e. an appreciation of 20%, mostly due to operating gains through a combined performance improvement. Despite the economic rational supports the deal’s attainment, there are other issues that could prevent it, namely the disallowance of the current shareholders to share, or even waste, the power controlled hitherto. Keywords: confectionery industry, synergies, companies’ valuation and value-creation iv The evaluation of a proposed combination between Hershey’s and Ferrero Index Sumário Executivo ..................................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 4 2. Literature review ................................................................................................................. 7 2.1. Mergers and Acquisitions: the context ....................................................................... 7 2.2. M&A Activities Reasons ........................................................................................... 8 2.3. Cross-border M&A .................................................................................................. 11 2.4. Value Creation .......................................................................................................... 12 2.4.1. Cross-border Value Creation .......................................................................... 13 2.5. Valuation and its Alternative Methodologies ........................................................... 13 2.5.1. Comparable Companies Approach ................................................................. 13 2.5.2. Comparable Transactions Approach .............................................................. 14 2.5.3. The DCF Spreadsheet Methodology .............................................................. 14 2.5.3.1. Enterprise DCF Model ................................................................................ 14 2.5.3.1.1. Value the Company’s Operations .......................................................... 15 2.5.3.1.2. Discount Cash Flows ............................................................................. 17 2.5.3.2. Non-operating Assets and Non-equity Claims ........................................... 21 2.5.3.3. Adjusted Present Value ............................................................................... 21 2.5.3.4. Free Cash Flow to the Equity ...................................................................... 22 2.6. Synergies Valuation – Value Created and Added .................................................... 22 2.6.1. Operating Synergies ....................................................................................... 23 2.6.2. Financial Synergies......................................................................................... 23 2.6.3. Costs Incurred ................................................................................................. 24 2.6.4. Common Errors in the Synergies Valuation ................................................... 24 2.7. Cross-border Valuation ............................................................................................ 25 2.7.1. Forecasting Cash-flows .................................................................................. 25 2.7.2. DiscountRrate ................................................................................................. 26 v The evaluation of a proposed combination between Hershey’s and Ferrero 2.8. Other M&A Determinants ........................................................................................ 26 3. Industry Landscape ........................................................................................................... 29 3.1. Confectionery Industry Overview ............................................................................ 29 3.2. Industry Macro and Consumer Drivers .................................................................... 30 3.3. Industry Trends and Market Prospective ................................................................. 32 3.4. Competition .............................................................................................................. 34 3.4.1. Confectionery Transactions ............................................................................ 37 4. Companies’ Overview ...................................................................................................... 38 4.1. The Hershey Company ............................................................................................. 38 4.1.1. Main Business Areas ...................................................................................... 38 4.1.2. Products and Services ..................................................................................... 39 4.1.3. Strategy ........................................................................................................... 39 4.1.4. Share Analysis ................................................................................................ 40 4.2. Ferrero Group ..........................................................................................................
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