Weather & Climate
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2019 20 Winter Quarter
Weather for the Winter Quarter 2019/20 For the most part December’s weather followed the rather damp pattern of the preceding quarter. By the end of the month we had had 91 mm of rain against a ten-year average of 59.4 mm. In fact September, October, November and December were all significantly wetter than we would have expected - 336mm against 232mm, or 145% of the expected rainfall. The middle two weeks of the December were the wettest when we had 13 consecutive rain days. It is interesting to note that despite this the Environment Agency reported that there had not been sufficient First Snowdrop Autumn rain to make up for the deficit resulting from the st 31 December 2019 previous four dry years. The average temperature for December was a little lower than expected and there were 9 nights below 0℃. However there were some good sunny days in amongst the gloom - in the first week, then the three days up to Christmas (23rd-25th) and two leading up to New Year (30th-31st). The new year started rather dull, but the first two weeks were surprisingly warm with generally southerly winds bringing heat from much further south. Not until the 13th-17th did we get the first winter storm with gusts locally of 50 mph (and much more in other parts of the country). There was also quite a lot of rain, 18.3 mm, but most of it fell in the hours of darkness. Then on Saturday 18th the pressure rose, the sun shone and we had not just one but two clear days - and consequently cold nights. -
The Impacts of Storms
THE IMPACTS OF STORMS It is important to think more about storms, how they are formed, their potentially devastating impacts and whether you are resilient to them. Planning in advance is essential, especially if you live in areas that may be more vulnerable than others, for example, those located next to rivers or on the coast. Winter storms can bring some of the most severe and extreme weather events, including lower temperatures, gale-force winds and heavy rain, which can lead to flooding in some areas or sleet and snow if the temperature is cold enough. Storms occur at mid-latitudes where cold polar air meets warmer tropical air and the point where these two meet is known as the jet stream. Rising air from the Atlantic is removed and replaced by the strong winds of the jet stream a lot quicker than the air at lower levels and this reduction in pressure produces the strong winds of winter storms. Storms tend to form in the winter months when the temperature between the air masses is at its greatest. It is important to keep as safe and resilient as you can against the potential impact of storms. On the 5th and 6th December 2015, Storm Desmond brought strong winds of up to 81 mph and heavy rainfall, with 341.4mm of rain falling in Cumbria by 6pm on the 5th (24 hours) – a new UK record! Many people across Cumbria and Lancashire were severely affected: 5200 homes were flooded. 61,000 homes in Lancaster lost power when an electrical substation was flooded. -
Whole Day Download the Hansard
Wednesday Volume 672 26 February 2020 No. 30 HOUSE OF COMMONS OFFICIAL REPORT PARLIAMENTARY DEBATES (HANSARD) Wednesday 26 February 2020 © Parliamentary Copyright House of Commons 2020 This publication may be reproduced under the terms of the Open Parliament licence, which is published at www.parliament.uk/site-information/copyright/. 299 26 FEBRUARY 2020 300 Stephen Crabb: As we prepare to celebrate St David’s House of Commons Day, now is a good moment to celebrate the enormous and excellent progress that has been made in reducing unemployment in Wales. Does my right hon. Friend Wednesday 26 February 2020 agree that what is really encouraging is the fact that the long-term lag between Welsh employment levels and the The House met at half-past Eleven o’clock UK average has now closed, with more people in Wales going out to work than ever before? PRAYERS Simon Hart: I am grateful to my right hon. Friend and constituency neighbour for raising this issue. He will be as pleased as I am that the figures in his own [MR SPEAKER in the Chair] constituency, when compared with 2010, are as good as they are. It is absolutely right that the Government’s job, in collaboration with the Welsh Government if that is necessary, is to ensure we create the circumstances Oral Answers to Questions where that trend continues. He has my absolute assurance that that will be the case. Christina Rees (Neath) (Lab/Co-op): Will the Secretary WALES of State provide the House with specific details on how many people have been affected by the catastrophic flood damage to residential properties and businesses The Secretary of State was asked— across Wales, and exactly how much has been lost to the Universal Credit Welsh economy so far? Simon Hart: I should start by saying that, during the 1. -
Kielder Reservoir, Northumberland
Rainwise Working with communities to manage rainwater Kielder Reservoir, Northumberland Kielder Water is the largest man-made lake in northern Europe and is capable of holding 200 billion litres of water, it is located on the River North Tyne in North West Northumberland. Figure 1: Location of Kielder Figure 2: Kielder Area Figure 3: Kielder Water The Kielder Water Scheme was to provide additional flood storage capacity at Kielder Reservoir. At the same time the Environment Agency completed in 1982 and was one of the (EA) were keen to pursue the idea of variable releases largest and most forward looking projects to the river and the hydropower operator at Kielder of its time. It was the first example in (Innogy) wished to review operations in order to maximum generation ahead of plans to refurbish the main turbine the UK of a regional water grid, it was in 2017. designed to meet the demands of the north east well into the future. The scheme CHALLENGES is a regional transfer system designed to Kielder reservoir has many important roles including river allow water from Kielder Reservoir to be regulation for water supply, hydropower generation and released into the Rivers Tyne, Derwent, as a tourist attraction. As such any amendments to the operation of the reservoir could not impact on Kielder’s Wear and Tees. This water is used to ability to support these activities. Operating the reservoir maintain minimum flow levels at times of at 85 percent of its capacity would make up to 30 billion low natural rainfall and allows additional litres of storage available. -
Flooding After Storm Desmond PERC UK 2015 Flooding in Cumbria After Storm Desmond PERC UK 2015
Flooding after Storm Desmond PERC UK 2015 Flooding in Cumbria after Storm Desmond PERC UK 2015 The storms that battered the north of England and parts of Scotland at the end of 2015 and early 2016 caused significant damage and disruption to families and businesses across tight knit rural communities and larger towns and cities. This came just two years after Storm Xaver inflicted significant damage to the east coast of England. Flooding is not a new threat to the residents of the Lake District, but the severity of the events in December 2015 certainly appears to have been regarded as surprising. While the immediate priority is always to ensure that defence measures are overwhelmed. We have also these communities and businesses are back up on their looked at the role of community flood action groups feet as quickly and effectively as possible, it is also in the response and recovery from severe flooding. important that all those involved in the response take Our main recommendations revolve around three key the opportunity to review their own procedures and themes. The first is around flood risk communication, actions. It is often the case that when our response is including the need for better communication of hazard, put to the test in a ‘real world’ scenario that we risk and what actions to take when providing early discover things that could have been done better, or warning services to communities. The second centres differently, and can make changes to ensure continuous around residual risk when the first line of flood improvement. This is true of insurers as much as it is of defences, typically the large, constructed schemes central and local government and the emergency protecting entire cities or areas, are either breached services, because events like these demand a truly or over-topped. -
Orkantief Sabine Löst Am 09./10. Februar 2020 Eine Schwere Sturmlage Über Europa Aus
Abteilung Klimaüberwachung Orkantief Sabine löst am 09./10. Februar 2020 eine schwere Sturmlage über Europa aus Autor(inn)en: Susanne Haeseler, Peter Bissolli, Jan Dassler, Volker Zins, Andrea Kreis Stand: 13.02.2020 Zusammenfassung Orkantief SABINE (in Westeuropa CIARA und in Norwegen ELSA benannt) löste am 9./10. Februar 2020 deutschlandweit Sturmböen bis Orkanstärke (12 Bft) aus. Die höchste Böe meldete der Feldberg im Schwarzwald am 10. Januar mit 49,1 m/s bzw. 177 km/h. Der Kern des Orkantiefs zog vom Atlantik kommend über Schottland nach Norwegen, wobei der Kerndruck zeitweise unter 945 hPa lag. Zwischen Nord- und Südeuropa bestanden Luftdruckunterschiede von etwa 80 hPa. Das dadurch generierte Sturmfeld erfasste weite Teile West-, Mittel- und Nordeuropas. In Deutschland war der Sturm, der sich von der Nordsee in Richtung Alpen ausweitete, von teils kräftigen Schauern und Gewittern begleitet. An der Nordsee gab es vom 10. bis 12. Januar mehrere teils schwere Sturmfluten (Abb. 1 und 4). Die extreme Sturmlage war schon Tage vorher angekündigt und es wurde von Tätigkeiten im Freien sowie Reisen während dieser Zeit abgeraten. Sport- und Musikveranstaltungen wurden vorsichtshalber abgesagt. Am 9./10. Februar stellte die Bahn in Deutschland den Verkehr zeitweise ein. Flüge und Fährverbindungen fielen aus. Viele Schulen und Kindergärten blieben am 10. Februar geschlossen. Der Sturm ließ in den betroffenen Ländern Bäume umstürzen und deckte Hausdächer ab. Auf den Britischen Inseln kam es zu Überschwemmungen. In einigen Regionen (auch in Deutschland) gab es Stromausfälle. Abbildung 1: Sturmflut am Weststrand von Norderney. Die Wellen laufen bis auf die Promenade, die als Küstenschutz dient, herauf. -
How LV= Delivered a Human Response to the Floods in Cumbria
A case study... How LV= delivered a human response to the floods in Cumbria BROKER LVbroker.co.uk LV= Insurance Highway Insurance ABC Insurance @LV_Broker LV= Broker Contents LV= in Kendal Storm Desmond LV= attended the scene Storm Eva Case Studies Storm Frank What next? 2 A case study... And the rain came... When Storm Desmond hit on 4 December 2015, nobody anticipated another two Background of Storm Desmond storms would follow. Storm Desmond was 4–6 December the start of intense rainfall and high winds Storm Desmond brought extreme rainfall and concentrated over Cumbria in the last part storm force winds with a few rain gauges reported of 2015. Storm Desmond was quickly to have recorded in excess of 300mm in a 24 hour period. followed by Storm Eva, proving more Thursday 3 December Friday 4 December misery over the festive period before Storm Frank put an end to the wet and windy weather on 31 December. Whilst many of the areas had been affected by flooding in the past, the immediate reaction was that this event was the worst in living memory. Many areas already had some form of flood defence in place and others were in the process of improving existing defences. Unfortunately Saturday 5 December Sunday 6 December the defences were unable to cope with the record river levels and in many instances were overtopped. LV= popped-up in Kendal Kendal was the first badly hit area and within hours of the news breaking on the 7 December, we sent two senior members of our claims team 300 miles up to Kendal (1). -
Defining the Hundred Year Flood
Journal of Hydrology 540 (2016) 1189–1208 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Hydrology journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jhydrol Research papers Defining the hundred year flood: A Bayesian approach for using historic data to reduce uncertainty in flood frequency estimates ⇑ Dr. Brandon Parkes , David Demeritt, Professor King’s College London, Department of Geography, Strand, London WC2R 2LS, United Kingdom article info abstract Article history: This paper describes a Bayesian statistical model for estimating flood frequency by combining uncertain Received 26 April 2016 annual maximum (AMAX) data from a river gauge with estimates of flood peak discharge from various Received in revised form 5 July 2016 historic sources that predate the period of instrument records. Such historic flood records promise to Accepted 14 July 2016 expand the time series data needed for reducing the uncertainty in return period estimates for extreme Available online 19 July 2016 events, but the heterogeneity and uncertainty of historic records make them difficult to use alongside This manuscript was handled by A. Bardossy, Editor-in-Chief, with the Flood Estimation Handbook and other standard methods for generating flood frequency curves from assistance of Saman Razavi, Associate Editor gauge data. Using the flow of the River Eden in Carlisle, Cumbria, UK as a case study, this paper develops a Bayesian model for combining historic flood estimates since 1800 with gauge data since 1967 to Keywords: estimate the probability of low frequency flood events for the area taking account of uncertainty in Flood frequency analysis the discharge estimates. Results show a reduction in 95% confidence intervals of roughly 50% for annual Bayesian model exceedance probabilities of less than 0.0133 (return periods over 75 years) compared to standard flood Historical flood estimates frequency estimation methods using solely systematic data. -
MAS8306 Topics in Statistics: Environmental Extremes
MAS8306 Topics in Statistics: Environmental Extremes Dr. Lee Fawcett Semester 2 2017/18 1 Background and motivation 1.1 Introduction Finally, there is almost1 a global consensus amongst scientists that our planet’s climate is changing. Evidence for climatic change has been collected from a variety of sources, some of which can be used to reconstruct the earth’s changing climates over tens of thousands of years. Reasonably complete global records of the earth’s surface tempera- ture since the early 1800’s indicate a positive trend in the average annual temperature, and maximum annual temperature, most noticeable at the earth’s poles. Glaciers are considered amongst the most sensitive indicators of climate change. As the earth warms, glaciers retreat and ice sheets melt, which – over the last 30 years or so – has resulted in a gradual increase in sea and ocean levels. Apart from the consequences on ocean ecosystems, rising sea levels pose a direct threat to low–lying inhabited areas of land. Less direct, but certainly noticeable in the last fiteen years or so, is the effect of rising sea levels on the earth’s weather systems. A larger amount of warmer water in the Atlantic Ocean, for example, has certainly resulted in stronger, and more frequent, 1Almost... — 3 — 1 Background and motivation tropical storms and hurricanes; unless you’ve been living under a rock over the last few years, you would have noticed this in the media (e.g. Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Superstorm Sandy in 2012). Most recently, and as reported in the New York Times in January 2018, the 2017 hurricane season was “.. -
Community Sustainability in the Dales • a Tale of Four Bridges • Saving a Dales Icon • an Unbroken Dales Record • Upland Hay Meadows
Spring 2018 : Issue 142 • Community Sustainability in the Dales • A Tale of Four Bridges • Saving a Dales Icon • An Unbroken Dales Record • Upland Hay Meadows CAMPAIGN • PROTECT • ENJOY Cover photo: Spring Life in the Dales. Courtesy of Mark Corner Photo, this page: Spring Flowers along the Ribble. Courtesy of Mark Corner CONTENTS Spring 2018 : Issue 142 Editor’s Letter ...............3 Book Review ...............13 Jerry Pearlman MBE ..........3 Upland Hay Meadows The Challenge of Community in the Dales ................14 Sustainability in the Dales .....4 Policy Committee A Tale of Four Bridges ........6 Planning Update ............15 Members’ Letters ...........16 Saving a Dales Icon ..........8 Something for Everyone? ....16 The Family of National Park Societies . 10 The Dales in Spring .........17 DalesBus Update ...........11 News .....................18 An Unbroken Record Events ....................19 in the Dales ................12 Dales Haverbread ...........20 New Business Members ......13 Editor Sasha Heseltine 2 It’s feeling a lot like Spring in the Dales With Our Deepest Condolences It is with great sadness that we make our It’s been a long winter but finally we are seeing glimmers members aware of the death of our trustee of spring cheering our majestic, wild Dales. Over and friend Jerry Pearlman MBE, who the centuries, they’ve been shaped by a remarkable passed away peacefully at home on Friday, combination of nature and human hand, and Dales 9th March, aged 84. Jerry was a founding communities play a vital role in preserving these member of the Yorkshire Dales Society, landscapes. When local residents are forced to leave the its solicitor, a very active trustee and a Dales to seek employment or affordable housing, those wonderful person. -
Living Without Electricity Transcript
Living Without Electricity Transcript Date: Tuesday, 28 February 2017 - 6:00PM Location: Museum of London 28 February 2017 Living without Electricity Professor Roger Kemp Abstract Storm Desmond brought unprecedented floods to Lancaster in December 2015 and electricity supplies were cut off and not fully restored for six days. The disruption revealed how dependent on electricity modern city life has become. What happens when power, communications, and transport are all disrupted, when shops cannot function, and when most people cannot find out what is happening? What lessons have been learnt? Society’s Dependence on Electricity To most people under 40 the World Wide Web and GSM phones are part of life but, in reality, the WWW is only 22 years old. In the 1980s it was considered revolutionary to send electronic messages outside one organisation but, by the mid-1990s, international businesses were using programmes like Lotus Notes to communicate between sites on different continents. Individual email access was through the telephone network and it was usual for people involved in international business to carry round a bag of adaptors so they could unplug the phone in their hotel room and connect a laptop to a remote server – a complicated, slow and expensive connection. It was only in the late 1990s that Wi Fi started to become widely available. Mobile phones first became available in 1985 but their widespread use only took off a decade later and, as it was not unusual to pay £700 for a handset, most purchasers were businesses. It was not until the new millennium that mobile phones and internet coalesced to form the seamless, ubiquitous information network we know today. -
A Review of Media Coverage of Climate Change and Global Warming in 2020 Special Issue 2020
A REVIEW OF MEDIA COVERAGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING IN 2020 SPECIAL ISSUE 2020 MeCCO monitors 120 sources (across newspapers, radio and TV) in 54 countries in seven different regions around the world. MeCCO assembles the data by accessing archives through the Lexis Nexis, Proquest and Factiva databases via the University of Colorado libraries. Media and Climate Change Observatory, University of Colorado Boulder http://mecco.colorado.edu Media and Climate Change Observatory, University of Colorado Boulder 1 MeCCO SPECIAL ISSUE 2020 A Review of Media Coverage of Climate Change and Global Warming in 2020 At the global level, 2020 media attention dropped 23% from 2019. Nonetheless, this level of coverage was still up 34% compared to 2018, 41% higher than 2017, 38% higher than 2016 and still 24% up from 2015. In fact, 2020 ranks second in terms of the amount of coverage of climate change or global warming (behind 2019) since our monitoring began 17 years ago in 2004. Canadian print media coverage – The Toronto Star, National Post and Globe and Mail – and United Kingdom (UK) print media coverage – The Daily Mail & Mail on Sunday, The Guardian & Observer, The Sun & Sunday Sun, The Telegraph & Sunday Telegraph, The Daily Mirror & Sunday Mirror, and The Times & Sunday Times – reached all-time highs in 2020. has been As the year 2020 has drawn to a close, new another vocabularies have pervaded the centers of critical year our consciousness: ‘flattening the curve’, in which systemic racism, ‘pods’, hydroxycholoroquine, 2020climate change and global warming fought ‘social distancing’, quarantines, ‘remote for media attention amid competing interests learning’, essential and front-line workers, in other stories, events and issues around the ‘superspreaders’, P.P.E., ‘doomscrolling’, and globe.