MAS8306 Topics in Statistics: Environmental Extremes
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The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones
Current Climate Change Reports https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00149-4 MID-LATITUDE PROCESSES AND CLIMATE CHANGE (I SIMPSON, SECTION EDITOR) The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones Jennifer L. Catto1 & Duncan Ackerley2 & James F. Booth3 & Adrian J. Champion1 & Brian A. Colle4 & Stephan Pfahl5 & Joaquim G. Pinto6 & Julian F. Quinting6 & Christian Seiler7 # The Author(s) 2019 Abstract Purpose of Review This review brings together recent research on the structure, characteristics, dynamics, and impacts of extratropical cyclones in the future. It draws on research using idealized models and complex climate simulations, to evaluate what is known and unknown about these future changes. Recent Findings There are interacting processes that contribute to the uncertainties in future extratropical cyclone changes, e.g., changes in the horizontal and vertical structure of the atmosphere and increasing moisture content due to rising temperatures. Summary While precipitation intensity will most likely increase, along with associated increased latent heating, it is unclear to what extent and for which particular climate conditions this will feedback to increase the intensity of the cyclones. Future research could focus on bridging the gap between idealized models and complex climate models, as well as better understanding of the regional impacts of future changes in extratropical cyclones. Keywords Extratropical cyclones . Climate change . Windstorms . Idealized model . CMIP models Introduction These features are a vital part of the global circulation and bring a large proportion of precipitation to the midlatitudes, The way in which most people will experience climate change including very heavy precipitation events [1–5], which can is via changes to the weather where they live. -
The East Coast Tidal Surge of 5 December 2013 Lincolnshire
OFFICIAL Lincolnshire’s Tidal Surge Response & Recovery ‘After Action’ Report The East Coast Tidal Surge of 5th December 2013 Lincolnshire Resilience Forum’s Response & Recovery ‘After Action’ Report 20th March 2014 1 OFFICIAL Lincolnshire’s Tidal Surge Response & Recovery ‘After Action’ Report Foreword On Thursday 5th December 2013 a deepening pressure system combined with high astronomical tides and strong to gale force ‘north westerly’ winds to generate a coastal surge along the whole of the east coast of England, the largest surge since the ‘great storm’ of 1953. Due to advances in surge forecasting, flood prediction and contingency planning at national, sub-national and local levels we were able to ‘get ahead’ of the storm. From Tuesday 3rd December partners began deploying one of the largest multi-agency emergency response and recovery operations ever conducted in Lincolnshire. This included the most significant evacuation operation in recent memory, the rescue of a number of people who became isolated by floodwaters, and work to ensure critical services were maintained and damaged infrastructure quickly repaired. Thankfully there were only 3 (relatively minor) casualties as a result of the surge, but more than 720 residential and commercial properties were inundated from the resultant overtopping and breach of defences. I would like to pass on my sympathy and support to those whose households and businesses flooded. We continue to work to support a full community recovery, and I commend the work of colleagues at Boston Borough Council who have led this work. In the circumstances this was a very good, forecast-led response and recovery effort. -
The Impacts of Storms
THE IMPACTS OF STORMS It is important to think more about storms, how they are formed, their potentially devastating impacts and whether you are resilient to them. Planning in advance is essential, especially if you live in areas that may be more vulnerable than others, for example, those located next to rivers or on the coast. Winter storms can bring some of the most severe and extreme weather events, including lower temperatures, gale-force winds and heavy rain, which can lead to flooding in some areas or sleet and snow if the temperature is cold enough. Storms occur at mid-latitudes where cold polar air meets warmer tropical air and the point where these two meet is known as the jet stream. Rising air from the Atlantic is removed and replaced by the strong winds of the jet stream a lot quicker than the air at lower levels and this reduction in pressure produces the strong winds of winter storms. Storms tend to form in the winter months when the temperature between the air masses is at its greatest. It is important to keep as safe and resilient as you can against the potential impact of storms. On the 5th and 6th December 2015, Storm Desmond brought strong winds of up to 81 mph and heavy rainfall, with 341.4mm of rain falling in Cumbria by 6pm on the 5th (24 hours) – a new UK record! Many people across Cumbria and Lancashire were severely affected: 5200 homes were flooded. 61,000 homes in Lancaster lost power when an electrical substation was flooded. -
Return Periods of Losses Associated with European Windstorm Series in a Changing Climate
Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate J.G. Pinto (a,b) M.K. Karremann (b) M. Reyers (b) M. Klawa (c) (a) Univ. Reading, UK (b) Univ. Cologne, Germany (c) Deutsche Rück, Germany Contact: [email protected] 1 Joaquim G. Pinto Bern 01 Sept. 2015 Motivation - European Storm Climatology, Top 15 Events Storm Storm Economic Damage Storm Name Fatalities rank Year Actual (USD) 1 1999 Lothar 137 11,350,000,000 2 2007 Kyrill 47 10,000,000,000 1990 season 3 1990 Daria 97 7,000,000,000 1999 season 4 2010 Xynthia 64 6,100,000,000 5 1999 Martin 90 6,000,000,000 6 2009 Klaus 28 6,000,000,000 7 2005 Erwin 18 5,505,000,000 8 1976 Capella 0 5,000,000,000 9 1987 Great Storm of 1987 23 4,000,000,000 10 1990 Vivian 50 3,500,000,000 11 1999 Anatol 27 3,000,000,000 12 2002 Jeanett 38 2,531,000,000 13 1995 Thalia 28 2,310,000,000 Multiple occurrences per year may be critical 14 1990 Wiebke 67 2,260,000,000 for contractual reasons 15 1990 Herta 30 1,960,000,000 Source: Perils 2 Joaquim G. Pinto Bern 01 Sept. 2015 Serial clustering of cyclones over North Atlantic / Europe Physical processes: a) Steering by large-scale patterns b) Secondary cyclogenesis (cyclone families) Jet stream, NAO++ Dispersion Dispersion statistics Ψ <0: serial regularity All P95 Ψ =0: serial randomness Ψ >0: serial clustering Sources: Pinto et al., 2009, Clim. -
I Don't Think I Need to Remind Anyone Here What a Catastrophic Event The
I don’t think I need to remind anyone here what a catastrophic event The Great Storm of 1987 was. In the build-up to its 30th anniversary last month we were treated to almost round the clock coverage in the media – on its meteorological back story - its violent trajectory across the southern half of the country - and everything from well-publicised and embarrassing forecasting failures - to the exponential loss of trees. I have a very personal reason for writing this book and this evening, I’d like to tell you how I came to write it, and where it all began; what I learned about storms and what this one, in particular, taught us and also how the themes of the title, Landscape, Legacy and Loss - came to define my own unique perspective - in the reframing and retelling of this powerful, collective national memory - 30 years on. 1 But let’s start with the weather… As our lifestyles change - as fewer of us work outdoors or have our livelihoods influenced by the weather – we’re much less affected by it than we used to be. This gradual disconnection from the outside world, means that weather events need to be truly exceptional before they stick in our minds - and that we quickly forget all but the most extreme, the most outrageous. If you were to ask a cross section of the population to give you their most vivid weather memories - each generation would be able to tell you about their own exceptionally hot or wet summer or their coldest, most severe winter. -
Pension News Dec 14.Pdf
Pearl Group Staff Pension Scheme December 2014 PENSION news INSIDE: • Club updates pages 4-6 • Lunch at High Holborn page 7 2 Pension news It is our sad duty to tell you that Lynne Coniff, who edited Pension News for the last 13 years, passed Hello… and welcome to away on 22 November 2014. As Lynne had already prepared this the December 2014 issue of Pension News. latest edition we thought it was It seems like no time at all since I The Editor, Pearl Pension News, fitting that it should be published as introduced you to the Summer issue! First Actuarial LLP, First House, Lynne had intended. Lynne will be I’m glad to report that you’re still Minerva Business Park, Lynch Wood, missed by everyone who had the enjoying stirring up old memories Peterborough PE2 6FT. privilege of working with her and of your time with the Pearl – we’ve our thoughts are with Mike, Lynne’s Wishing you a wonderful Christmas had a couple of replies to the ‘mighty husband, and the rest of her family and a happy New Year. oaks’ article in the last issue, which at this difficult time. Lynne Coniff celebrated the 150th birthday of Pearl, Editor and the 65th birthday of the Pearl 2015 pension pay dates Pension Scheme. We also have two more ‘add the name’ challenges – one The pension pay dates for 2015 in the form of a sketch, which should are as follows: prove interesting! 23 Jan 22 May 25 Sept 25 Feb 25 June 23 Oct As always, please keep your 25 March 24 July 25 Nov contributions coming: 24 April 25 Aug 22 Dec Pension news 3 Stirring up memories Mr Alan F Lankshear Allan G Cook from Halstead, Essex wrote: “I recognised several Following the article ‘From little acorns, mighty names but one in particular prompted memories of my early oaks grow’ in the last issue, we received two days at Pearl and that is of Mr Alan F Lankshear. -
ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005
MARCH 2008 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1109 ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005 JOHN L. BEVEN II, LIXION A. AVILA,ERIC S. BLAKE,DANIEL P. BROWN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN, RICHARD D. KNABB,RICHARD J. PASCH,JAMIE R. RHOME, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 2 November 2006, in final form 30 April 2007) ABSTRACT The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active of record. Twenty-eight storms occurred, includ- ing 27 tropical storms and one subtropical storm. Fifteen of the storms became hurricanes, and seven of these became major hurricanes. Additionally, there were two tropical depressions and one subtropical depression. Numerous records for single-season activity were set, including most storms, most hurricanes, and highest accumulated cyclone energy index. Five hurricanes and two tropical storms made landfall in the United States, including four major hurricanes. Eight other cyclones made landfall elsewhere in the basin, and five systems that did not make landfall nonetheless impacted land areas. The 2005 storms directly caused nearly 1700 deaths. This includes approximately 1500 in the United States from Hurricane Katrina— the deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1928. The storms also caused well over $100 billion in damages in the United States alone, making 2005 the costliest hurricane season of record. 1. Introduction intervals for all tropical and subtropical cyclones with intensities of 34 kt or greater; Bell et al. 2000), the 2005 By almost all standards of measure, the 2005 Atlantic season had a record value of about 256% of the long- hurricane season was the most active of record. -
BHS Circulation Contents
BHS Circulation contents 11th NCCR climate summer school Jonathan Eden 2012, 115, 10 1988-92 Drought: a hydrological review anon 1993, 40, 9 1989-1990: A period of constrasts Hilary Smithers 1991, 29, 7 32nd International school of hydraulics Steve Wallis 2012, 115, 16 64th EAGE Conference and technical exhibition Aaron Lockwood 2002, 74, 10 A fishy tale David Archer 2008, 96, 6 A groundwater taster for Scotland David Martin 2010, 105, 13 A hydrological mystery? Ron Manley 1995, 48, 6 A method for estimating discharge in torrential wadis Brain Watts 2001, 70, 5 A national flood emergency framework Anon 2009, 100, 16 A risky business: hydrological risk and uncertainty under climate change Paul Bates & Ian Cluckie 2003, 78, 12 A source of bias in regionalisation equations Ian Littlewood 2002, 72,9 About Drought Stephen Turner 2018, 137, 16 Acid rain: the use of models in impact assessment on surface waters Neil Weatherly 1994, 44, 11 Advances in spatial rainfall representation Helen Proctor 2004, 81, 12 Aotearoa – hydrometry in New Zealand John Adams 1994, 42, 1 AGU conference – hydrology sessions 2003 Hamish Moir 2003, 77, 3 AGU Fall meeting 2011 Simon Parry 2012, 112, 20 AGU Fall meeting 2006 Jim Freer 2007, 93, 7 AGU Fall meeting 2007 David Lavers 2008, 96, 9 AGU Fall meeting 2008 Christian Birkel, Markus 2009, 101, Hrachowitz, Mark Speed, 11 Doerthe Tetzlaff AGU Fall meeting 2009 Tobias Krueger 2010, 104, 19 AGU Fall meeting 2010 Caroline Ballard; Cécile 2011, 108, 6 Ménard AGU Fall meeting 2011 Nick Barber 2012, 113, 9 AGU Fall meeting -
The Great Storm of 1987: 20-Year Retrospective
THE GREAT STORM OF 1987: 20-YEAR RETROSPECTIVE RMS Special Report EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Great Storm of October 15–16, 1987 hit northern France and southern England with unexpected ferocity. Poorly forecast, unusually strong, and occurring early in the winter windstorm season, this storm — known in the insurance industry as “87J” — has been ascribed negative consequences beyond its direct effects, including severe loss amplification, and according to one theory, the precipitation of a major global stock market downturn. Together with other catastrophic events of the late 1980s and early 1990s, the storm brought some companies to financial ruin, while at the same time creating new business opportunities for others. The global reinsurance industry in particular was forced to adapt to survive. In this climate, the way was clear for new capital to enter the market, and for the development of innovative ways to assess and transfer the financial risk from natural hazards and other perils. Twenty years following the 1987 event, this report chronicles the unique features of the storm and the potential impact of the event should it occur in 2007, in the context of RMS’ current understanding of the windstorm risk throughout Europe. The possible consequences of a storm with similar properties taking a subtly different path are also considered. In 1987, losses from the storm totalled £1.4 billion (US$2.3 billion) in the U.K. alone. RMS estimates that if the Great Storm of 1987 were to recur in 2007, it would cause between £4 billion and £7 billion (between US$8 billion and US$14.5 billion) in insured loss Europe-wide. -
Kielder Reservoir, Northumberland
Rainwise Working with communities to manage rainwater Kielder Reservoir, Northumberland Kielder Water is the largest man-made lake in northern Europe and is capable of holding 200 billion litres of water, it is located on the River North Tyne in North West Northumberland. Figure 1: Location of Kielder Figure 2: Kielder Area Figure 3: Kielder Water The Kielder Water Scheme was to provide additional flood storage capacity at Kielder Reservoir. At the same time the Environment Agency completed in 1982 and was one of the (EA) were keen to pursue the idea of variable releases largest and most forward looking projects to the river and the hydropower operator at Kielder of its time. It was the first example in (Innogy) wished to review operations in order to maximum generation ahead of plans to refurbish the main turbine the UK of a regional water grid, it was in 2017. designed to meet the demands of the north east well into the future. The scheme CHALLENGES is a regional transfer system designed to Kielder reservoir has many important roles including river allow water from Kielder Reservoir to be regulation for water supply, hydropower generation and released into the Rivers Tyne, Derwent, as a tourist attraction. As such any amendments to the operation of the reservoir could not impact on Kielder’s Wear and Tees. This water is used to ability to support these activities. Operating the reservoir maintain minimum flow levels at times of at 85 percent of its capacity would make up to 30 billion low natural rainfall and allows additional litres of storage available. -
Flooding After Storm Desmond PERC UK 2015 Flooding in Cumbria After Storm Desmond PERC UK 2015
Flooding after Storm Desmond PERC UK 2015 Flooding in Cumbria after Storm Desmond PERC UK 2015 The storms that battered the north of England and parts of Scotland at the end of 2015 and early 2016 caused significant damage and disruption to families and businesses across tight knit rural communities and larger towns and cities. This came just two years after Storm Xaver inflicted significant damage to the east coast of England. Flooding is not a new threat to the residents of the Lake District, but the severity of the events in December 2015 certainly appears to have been regarded as surprising. While the immediate priority is always to ensure that defence measures are overwhelmed. We have also these communities and businesses are back up on their looked at the role of community flood action groups feet as quickly and effectively as possible, it is also in the response and recovery from severe flooding. important that all those involved in the response take Our main recommendations revolve around three key the opportunity to review their own procedures and themes. The first is around flood risk communication, actions. It is often the case that when our response is including the need for better communication of hazard, put to the test in a ‘real world’ scenario that we risk and what actions to take when providing early discover things that could have been done better, or warning services to communities. The second centres differently, and can make changes to ensure continuous around residual risk when the first line of flood improvement. This is true of insurers as much as it is of defences, typically the large, constructed schemes central and local government and the emergency protecting entire cities or areas, are either breached services, because events like these demand a truly or over-topped. -
Supplement of Storm Xaver Over Europe in December 2013: Overview of Energy Impacts and North Sea Events
Supplement of Adv. Geosci., 54, 137–147, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-54-137-2020-supplement © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Supplement of Storm Xaver over Europe in December 2013: Overview of energy impacts and North Sea events Anthony James Kettle Correspondence to: Anthony James Kettle ([email protected]) The copyright of individual parts of the supplement might differ from the CC BY 4.0 License. SECTION I. Supplement figures Figure S1. Wind speed (10 minute average, adjusted to 10 m height) and wind direction on 5 Dec. 2013 at 18:00 GMT for selected station records in the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) database. Figure S2. Maximum significant wave height for the 5–6 Dec. 2013. The data has been compiled from CEFAS-Wavenet (wavenet.cefas.co.uk) for the UK sector, from time series diagrams from the website of the Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrolographie (BSH) for German sites, from time series data from Denmark's Kystdirektoratet website (https://kyst.dk/soeterritoriet/maalinger-og-data/), from RWS (2014) for three Netherlands stations, and from time series diagrams from the MIROS monthly data reports for the Norwegian platforms of Draugen, Ekofisk, Gullfaks, Heidrun, Norne, Ormen Lange, Sleipner, and Troll. Figure S3. Thematic map of energy impacts by Storm Xaver on 5–6 Dec. 2013. The platform identifiers are: BU Buchan Alpha, EK Ekofisk, VA? Valhall, The wind turbine accident letter identifiers are: B blade damage, L lightning strike, T tower collapse, X? 'exploded'. The numbers are the number of customers (households and businesses) without power at some point during the storm.