COVER STORY VERDICT 2012

By M.J. Akbar

fall from grace is par for the course. A slide into humiliation is another discourse. Defeat is the familiar price of failure in democ- racy. Humiliation is retribution for WILLUPASURVIVE a more dangerous sin, arrogance. Parties often blossom after an Aelection victory, as Congress did after 2004; very few retain any relationship with reality after re-election. The trap of 2012 was set in 2009. sought to win his electoral spurs in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh on the road to the Prime Minister’s office. After two years of effort THIS SUMMER? and expense, he has just discovered that he has A battered Congress stares at an ominous future as belligerent allies are likely to strike at the UPA Government’s weakest moment neither horse nor direction along the Gangetic belt. Family, in these egalitarian times, is an PARKASH (LEFT) AND SUKHBIR SINGH inadequate rationale for office. BADAL ATTHE GOLDEN TEMPLE, AMRITSAR Dynasties are loath to admit mistakes, since they damage their principal claim to power, mystique. Even a punctured prince must be praised, therefore, if for nothing else than hard work, as if hard work is perfectly understandable for mortals like Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati but a labour of love for a prince. Everyone works hard in an election. Defeat cannot be a prince’s fault: Candidates were wrong, or the party was to blame and not a whisper about who chose the candidates, or who was in charge of building the party. A curtain of ali- bis becomes a tattered cloak. Rahul Gandhi is not young. At his age, 41, his great grandfather Jawaharlal presided over the historic 1929 Lahore session and pushed through, despite the scepticism of his mentor Mahatma Gandhi, the swaraj resolution which formally committed the Congress to complete independence from the British. Jawaharlal soared ahead in national esteem on the wing of ideas, not slogans undercooked by trainee chefs who do not know the difference between hot air and nourishment. Jawaharlal was an intellectual who bridged a formidable library with the poverty of a village, and was at home in both environments. He learnt his poli- tics from peasant and Mahatma, as well as from the pre-

www.indiatodayimages.com scriptions of an ancient sage he so admired, Chanakya. When in 321 BC Chandragupta sought to overthrow Mahapadma Nanda [‘the son of a barber’], Chanakya offered some sensible advice: Remember how your mother

MANEESH AGNIHOTRI/ PRABHJOT GILL taught you to eat a hot chapatti—begin from the edges. AKHILESH (LEFT) AND MULAYAM YADAV ATTHE RAJ BHAVAN IN LUCKNOW MARCH 19, 2012 ◆ TODAY 27 COVER STORY VERDICT 2012 SOMITRA GHOSH

THE DOWN STAIRCASE when the next President of India is elected. If the Congress Congress got a mere 28 seats, much lower than even its own fails to get its candidate through, the party might not be over, ADDRESSES THE most modest estimation in Uttar Pradesh but the Government will be. MEDIA ON MARCH 7 ASSEMBLY GENERAL ASSEMBLY During its first term, when Pranab Mukherjee was in POLLS 2012 ELECTIONS UP 2009 POLLS 2007* charge of UPA’s security, he played off friend, foe and the PARTY SEATS VOTE%** SEATS VOTE% SEATSVOTE% large grey mass in the middle with finesse and dexterity; he postponed any budding problem till the point where the BSP 80 25.9 20 27.4 206 30.4 advantage tipped in the Congress’s favour. After 2009, the Congress has done everything to alienate its allies, and snub SP 224 30 23 23.4 97 25.4 those it might have reached out to. Others have, as a BJP 47 15 10 17 51 16.9 consequence, created space in the middle, where even parties within the ruling alliance can occasionally rest when CONG 28 11 21 18.2 22 8.6 tired of being nice to Congress. Those who do not dare step out, like DMK, are as sullen as scapegoats. Congress has RLD 9 35 2103.7 used tax authorities to blackmail partners into good behav- iour, not the best way to bond. Those without any option but OTHERS 15 15 1 11.38 17 15 silence, become good at waiting for their moment. That * Before delimitation * * estimates moment could be this summer. In straight political mathematics, association with NUMBERS CRUNCH CONGRESS PUNJAB 117 MANIPUR 60 Congress is slowly turning into a liability. Congress leaders SP in Uttar Pradesh, Akali Dal-BJP in 2012 2007 2012 2007 like spokesman Manish Tewari are beginning to admit that Punjab and BJP in Goa were clear SAD 56 48 Cong 42 30 there is sweeping urban resentment against the party. This winners.Congress swept only Manipur. Cong 46 44 TMC 7 0 is, once again, a reversal from UPA 1, when Congress added BJP 12 19 NCP 1 5 value to an ally’s vote base. But the decisive impetus will come UTTAR PRADESH 403 Others 3 6 Others 10 25 2012 2007 from the Agatha Christie question: Who benefits from death SP 224 97 in the drawing room, or, in a more straightforward simile, the UTTARAKHAND 70 GOA 40 YASBANT NEGI/ www.indiatodayimages.com BSP 80 206 2012 2007 2012 2007 BJP 47 51 Cong 32 22 BJP 21 14 Cong 28 22 BJP 31 34 Cong 9 16 Others 24 27 Others 7 14 Others 10 10

Graphics by SAURABH SINGH/www.indiatodayimages.com Rahul Gandhi’s strategy, literally and metaphorically, was the Singh Yadav to office, and in constituencies where reverse. He operated from the centre. From the comfort of strategic voting made more sense, he elected fellow a power perch in Delhi, he converted the chapatti into a Muslims across labels. This UP Assembly will see the high- jigsaw puzzle. His advisers thought each geographical or est number of Muslim MLAs, 69. Every major party—SP, BSP demographic piece could be adjusted by money, legislative and Congress—will have the same percentage of Muslim illusion or emotional patronage. MLAs, between 20 to 30 per cent. After all the From this emerged a campaign of smoke and mirrors. huff and puff, Congress has four Muslims in its total of 28. A cash award was assigned to Bundelkhand. The Dalit heart The Peace Party has three out of its four. There should be was meant to melt at the sight of a prince dropping in for a a lesson in this somewhere. meal. Rahul Gandhi’s problem is not that he is young, but Congress President Sonia Gandhi thought the crisis that he continued to play with toy soldiers in his electoral was serious enough to merit that rare indulgence called a war room. Gestures became a substitute for substance. He press conference. She let slip a thought that should trouble rolled up his sleeves. He toyed with the length of his beard. her colleagues, that the problem was too many leaders I trust that Rahul Gandhi is not going to tear up any rather than lack of leadership. But we shall let the party opponent’s manifesto for a long time. worry about that. Her more substantive comment was that The biggest play was made for the Muslim vote, with UPA still had time to correct its mistakes, since the next promises that were tainted with compromise. The dust of General Elections were in 2014. reservations was thrown into the eye and pantomime It is possible that news from Kolkata had not reached paraded as drama. Second rank Congress leaders began to her. Her ally, Mamata Banerjee, publicly celebrated compete for awards in histrionics. Those with literary Mulayam Singh Yadav’s victory in Uttar Pradesh. This does fantasies offered little drops of blood to fertilise seeds of not quite sound like a ringing endorsement of UPA as it future glory. The only astute player in this game was presently exists. Long before the General Elections of 2014, the Muslim voter: On a bulk level, he drove Mulayam there will be an electoral test for UPA, in July this year,

28 INDIA TODAY ◆ MARCH 19, 2012 COVER STORY VERDICT 2012 collapse of Dr Manmohan Singh’s creased its vote: among Hindu second Government? FUTURE SHOCK Dalits, Hindu OBCs, Sikh OBCs and Just as the Congress, as Mrs All MPs and MLAs constitute the elec- Sikh Dalits. It was always Gandhi pointed out, needs time, toral college for presidential elections. pompous to believe that Anna others need to be in a hurry. Held in accordance with the system of Hazare’s campaign would have Mamata Banerjee, J. Jayalalithaa, proportional representation by means no impact, a view cooked up at Nitish Kumar, N. Jaganmohan of a single transferable vote, each mem- Congress headquarters and dis- Reddy, Chandrababu Naidu, Naveen ber has a certain value depending upon seminated with alarming ease by Patnaik, Prakash Karat, Nitin the population of the state they repre- sections of the media. Gadkari, Mulayam Singh Yadav, sent. The value of SP votes has jumped Some facts will linger like a Mayawati, Parkash Singh Badal and from 38,531 to 69,651 following the UP terrible, toxic cold. Dr Singh, the Om Prakash Chautala may have results and will be decisive in the elec- first Sikh Prime Minister, has lost enough contradictions between tion of the next President in July. Punjab twice to the Akalis. The them to confuse a doctorate in logic, first time could have been care- but they want an election when the MINIMUM VOTES NEEDED 5,48,507 lessness; the second time is pun- Congress is at its weakest. Through- ishment. Mrs Gandhi has lost all out 2012, Congress will remain PARTY VALUE OF Assembly seats in Rae Bareli, shaken by the UP-Punjab earth- VOTES despite the continual presence of quake. By 2013, Congress could Priyanka Gandhi, internally begin to recover. Why wait? UPA 4,50,555 touted as a bigger campaign star If these leaders can find a com- NDA 3,03,912 than brother Rahul. Earlier this mon candidate for President, UPA 2 is year Home Minister P. Chidam- toast. Even without April’s Rajya LEFT 51,574 baram was in Tamil Nadu, and Sabha elections, where Congress will cannot be sure of re-election in slip further, the numbers are dicey for BSP 43,723 his own seat. S.M. Krishna, the the UPA. Once a body starts to bleed, external affairs minister, is at a unsuspected pores begin to gush. SP 69,651 dead-end in Karnataka. A.K. This is the weakest that Congress AIADMK 36,216 Antony, the defence minister, is at has been since Narasimha Rao lost a tipping edge in Kerala. Finance the elections in 1996. UP, where the BJD 30,215 Minister Mukherjee may look Congress vote dropped by 7 per cent, happier, but not if he glances is not the only tale in town. Equally OTHERS 1,11,166 towards his mercurial ally in lacerating is Punjab, where Congress Bengal, Mamata. Rahul Gandhi began to celebrate long before the TOTAL 10,97,012 has blamed the party infrastruc- votes were cast. The Akali master- Source: PRS Legislative Research ture for the UP defeat, but has he mind, Sukhbir Badal, read ground reality brilliantly. He looked at the structure at the top? Not a single Congress turned his cousin Manpreet Badal’s defection into an asset. heavyweight is heavy enough to lift his own state, or even a He protected his base while Manpreet divided the anti- part thereof. Why blame the worker at the base? Congress establishment vote. And so in a crucial segment like might claim it has jailed a corrupt minister, but it quite women, while Akalis lost 5 per cent from their vote in 2007, forgot to arrest its chief minister in Goa, who has been they still led Congress by 43 to 39 per cent. In a string of sentenced by voters to long exile. other demographics, the Akali-BJP alliance actually in- The Congress can revive, of course. But it must return

NAVEEN PATNAIK MAMATA BANERJEE NITISH KUMAR J. JAYALALITHAA

MARCH 19, 2012 ◆ INDIA TODAY 31 Share of RURAL-URBAN DIVIDE Muslims and RETURN OFTHE LOYALISTS Dalits in Muslim voters returned to SP after deserting the party in 2009 SP gained in both rural and urban areas. BSP HOWUTTAR PRADESH VOTED population lost appeal in both cities and villages. Parties/ 2002 2007 2009 2012 Muslim vote Assembly Assembly Lok Sabha Assembly Area SP BSP BJP Congress Muslims moved en masse towards SP, while Dalit Jatavs turned away from Mayawati WESTERN UP Muslims 29.4% SP 53% 46% 30% 43% Rural 33% (+7) 27% (-5) 14% (-4) 11% Dalits 17.6% BSP 10% 21% 18% 20% Urban 29% (+6) 18% (-3) 17% (-4) 22% (+5)

Congress 10% 7% 24% 17% Figures in brackets indicate loss or gain compared to 2007 ROHILKHAND Muslims 34.3% UP UP Dalits 16.3% KEEPING THE FAITH POOR REJECT MAYAWATI The uneducated relied on SP, but the party also The champion of disadvantaged, BSP, lost its AVADH attracted more graduates than in 2007 touch with the poor. SP and Congress did better. 2007 2012 Muslims 16.2% Economic ASSEMBLYSEATS ASSEMBLYSEATS Dalits 26.6% Level of education SP BSP BJP Congress Class SP BSP BJP Congress SP 97 SP 224 BSP 206 BSP 80 NORTH-EASTERN UP Uneducated 33% (+8) 32% (-5) 10% (-13) 9% Poor 31% (+8) 31% (-10) 12% 13% (+4) CONGRESS 22 CONGRESS 28 Muslims 19.8% Graduates 28% (+5) 17% (-5) 21% (-6) 20% (+9) Rich 29% (+4) 21% (-7) 17% (-13) 19% (+2) BJP 51 BJP 47 Dalits 18.2% OTHERS 27 OTHERS 24 Figures in brackets indicate loss or gain compared to 2007 Figures in brackets indicate loss or gain compared to 2007 TOTAL 403 TOTAL 403 EASTERN UP Map not to scale Muslims 12% CASTE IN A SP gained among Brahmins and A MARGINALTHUMBS UP MAYAWATI SURVIVES A SPLIT CORE Dalits 23.1% NEW MOULD Rajputs who did not see BJP as a viable alternative this time Congress attracted some young voters, not enough Jatavs, 25 per cent of the Dalit base, moved away SP moved into Mayawati’s non-Jatav Dalit turf too, to make a difference. BJP lost among young and old. from BSP and voted for Samajwadi Party going from 9% to 21% vote share among them DOAB Caste/Community SPvote Age SP BSP BJP Congress Parties/ 2002 2007 2009 2012 Parties/ 2002 2007 2009 2012 Muslims 11.7% Dalits 20.5% Kurmi+Koeri 38% (+21) Jatavvote Assembly Assembly Lok Sabha Assembly Non-Jatavvote Assembly Assembly Lok Sabha Assembly Up to 25 years 33% (+7) 22% (-6) 15% (-4) 16% (+4) Lower OBC 31% (+11) BSP 79% 85% 85% 60% BSP 55% 55% 62% 44% 56 years or more 35% (+9) 25% (-5) 15% (-3) 12% BUNDELKHAND Rajput 30% (+9) Figures in brackets indicate loss or gain compared to 2007 SP 2% 4% 5% 19% SP 2% 13% 9% 21% Muslims 7. 1% Brahmins 21% (+11) Congress 4% 2% 4% 7% Congress 9% 5% 20% 17% Dalits 25.1% Source: CSDS Data Unit Figures in brackets indicate BJP 2% 3% 4% 5% BJP 11% 13% 8% 9% loss or gain compared to 2007 Compiled by Sanjay Kumar GRAPHICS: MADHUMANGAL SINGH, SAURABH SINGH AKHILESH Fellow at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies /www.indiatodayimages.com YADAV

to what it used to be, liberal in spirit and democratic in This is the reason why he was not projected as the chief min- a Manmohan Singh-Sonia Gandhi kind of arrangement. ethos. It can either be a national trust or family property, not isterial candidate in the state despite the demand from many Already SMS jokes are doing the rounds claiming that the both. The fact that other parties are run by families is The Crown candidates. “We were told that Rahul Gandhi was a national Uttar Pradesh defeat has given Manmohan a fresh lease of irrelevant. There were many turning points in the UP elec- leader who could not be limited to one state,” says a party political tenure. Interestingly, when asked on March 7 who tion. One of them was the arrival of Priyanka Gandhi’s Prince Cracks candidate from Allahabad who lost his seat. The shame of would be Congress’s prime ministerial candidate in 2014, husband Robert Vadra and her still young children to Rae Shamed in his battlefield, Rahul has to wait till 2019 Uttar Pradesh has put Rahul’s national ambitions on hold. Sonia Gandhi was evasive, saying, “This is 2012.” Bareli. The electorate was being given advance notice for Rahul has already shifted his war room to Gujarat. The “Rahul could easily have helicoptered into the prime By Priya Sahgal 2030. I don’t know what voters will do in 2030, but we know elections in that state are due early next year, along with minister’s position. Instead, he chose to work from the now what they did in 2012. Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka. All three states are ruled ground and chose the most difficult terrain of all,” Congress In 1739, the Persian butcher-marauder Nadir Shah The day the Congress lost Uttar Pradesh, Rahul Gandhi un- by the BJP but it is Gujarat that will be the trophy win. If Rahul veteran Mani Shankar Aiyar told the media. He recalled shrugged aside token military resistance outside Delhi, derwent yet another makeover. It was not the angry young manages to wrest this state away from Narendra Modi then how the Congress had lost Karnataka and Andhra occupied the Mughal capital and ordered that the khutba at man but a sheepish youth who met the media on the after- he will regain much of the glory he lost in Uttar Pradesh. Pradesh in 1983 under the late ’s leadership. the Friday prayers be read in his name, acknowledgement noon of March 6. Still sporting a beard, he said, “I led the Given the Congress’s dependence on dynasty, Rahul will Yet Rajiv’s position within the Congress remained unassail- that he was overlord of the wretched Mughal emperor, campaign so it (the defeat) is my responsibility.” And then remain the party’s star campaigner for 2014. But whether able. Similarly, no one has blamed Rahul for the current de- Muhammad Shah Alam Rangila. Persian nobles laughed added on a surprisingly mature note, “the result is a good he is projected as the party’s prime ministerial candidate will bacle. Instead, sundry Congress leaders are falling over and coined a doggerel: Hukumat-e Shah Alam, Az Dilli ta lesson for me”. With a pat on the back for one journalist and depend on how the Congress fares in these elections as well themselves to take the blame. Palam. The translation is not inspiring: The rule of Shah a wave for another, he walked back to 10 Janpath where as the next round of polls in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan Rahul has tripped before. He led the party’s disastrous Alam stretches from Delhi to Palam. Priyanka consoled her beaten brother with a hug. which are due at the end of 2013. If there is a repeat of the Bihar campaign in 2010. He is still to promote a state-level If Congress loses Rajasthan, that will be the extent of its A Congress revival in Uttar Pradesh was supposed to be current scorecard, then it is likely that Rahul will postpone leadership there. But Uttar Pradesh was a bigger shock than realm in north India. the first step towards Rahul’s coronation as prime minister. his prime ministerial ambitions to 2019 and instead opt for Bihar. This is a state that he had made into his karmbhoomi.

32 INDIA TODAY ◆ MARCH 19, 2012 MARCH 19, 2012 ◆ INDIA TODAY 33 COVER STORY VERDICT 2012

PTI A Congress general secretary points out that he will soon be visiting Uttar Pradesh again and is keen to prop up a line of local leadership. According to him, Rahul is considering projecting one of the three Union ministers—RPN Singh, Jitin Prasada or Pradeep Jain—as the state Congress chief. One of the lessons Rahul has learnt from Uttar Pradesh is the importance of a credible state leader. The current state leadership, such as it is, comprises of Congress Legislature Party leader Pramod Tewari and Pradesh Congress Committee chief Rita Bahuguna Joshi. Both cannot win a seat outside their own constituency. Explains a local Congress leader, “Ritaji knows how her father (H.N. Bahuguna) was cut to size by Indiraji. She knows how dangerous it is to be a tall leader in the Congress.” Rahul had revelled in his self-appointed role as the great saviour of the cow belt. He now knows that his hit-and-run visits to the state have not worked. What the Congress needs is a strong local leadership if it wants to make a comeback. Rahul’s patronising brand of politics—promising a package for one section of Uttar Pradesh, engineering reservations for another and propping up a caste icon for a third—has clearly been rejected by the state. The problem with Rahul is that he thinks in English and then translates his thoughts into Hindi. This is what led to the faux pas when he referred to the people of Uttar Pradesh as beggars during his November 14 rally in Phulpur. “What he meant was that Uttar Pradesh should provide enough employment opportunities so that its residents don’t have to look for work outside,” explains a Lucknow-based Congressman. Unfortunately, this is not quite how it sounded. Because of this communication gap, instead of creating an emotional connect with the voter, Rahul’s speeches often have the air of a patronising sermon. Sonia Gandhi has said that the problem in Uttar Pradesh was that there were “too many leaders”. If Rahul wants to RAHUL AND PRIYANKA GANDHI IN DELHI ON MARCH 7 COSTLY BLUNDERS How the Congress made every effort to defeat itself in Uttar Pradesh

November 14, 2011 Rahul penter).This exposed Congress ated the myth of a dynastic right Gandhi kicked off the Congress as being a casteist party. to rule. Congress won only two of campaign with a faux pas.At February 6, 2012 At a press 10 seats from Amethi-Rae Bareli. a rally in Phulpur,he asked the conference in Varanasi, Rahul February 16, 2012 youth how long they would go stated that his party would not At a rally in Lucknow, on begging for jobs in Punjab support either SP or BSP. Rahul tore up a piece and Maharashtra.This RAHUL ON Digvijaya Singh and Sriprakash of paper.What he boomeranged. FEBRUARY 16 Jaiswal raised the spectre of wanted to November 2011 Rahul Governor’s Rule.This only added convey was mocked the BJP’s India Shining December 18, 2011 From votes to the SP kitty. anger at tall slogan. Not only was this an old development, Rahul suddenly February 6, 2012 Robert poll prom- slogan dating back to 2004 Lok began to talk caste.At a rally for Vadra announced his desire to ises.What he Sabha polls, but the BJP was not MBCs (Most Backwards), he told contest elections.That, along did convey was even a key player in UP.This the crowd that tech icon Sam with the sight of his two children disrespect for totally confused the voters. Pitroda was a Vishwakarma (car- on the campaign trail, perpetu- his rivals.

MARCH 19, 2012 ◆ INDIA TODAY 35 COVER STORY VERDICT 2012

succeed as a party leader, he needs to re-evaluate his team man appealed to an earlier generation. Today’s youth is dif- of advisers. After the elections, Rahul told a select section of ferent and has a wider perpective,” says Kesri Nath Tripathi, the media that he had wanted to be projected as the chief a BJP leader from Allahabad. Considering that this look was ministerial candidate but his party leaders advised him the brainchild of Raj Babbar, another actor from the against it. Rahul should have just gone with his instincts in- Amitabh generation, it is not surprising he got it so wrong. stead of allowing himself to be misled. Moreover, Mayawati Although Sonia had kept in the background allowing her has pointed out that the Congress party’s politics of quota son to lead the party in the recent round of Assembly only succeeded in pushing the Muslim vote firmly towards elections, the debacle has forced her to emerge from the the Samajwadi Party (SP). It was Cabinet minister Salman shadows. She reprimanded Congressmen to “pull up their Khurshid and senior leader Digvijaya Singh who were the socks”. She could have added a footnote to this sartorial proponents of this quota politics. “We only talked about 4.5 advice: And stop rolling up your sleeves! T. NARAYAN/www.indiatodayimages.com Close to Nervous Breakdown Shock of Punjab makes Congress future bleaker By Asit Jolly and Priya Sahgal

Celebrations broke out in Parkash Singh Badal’s village on the afternoon of March 6 as poll results announced a sur- prising comeback for the octogenarian Chief Minister. He climbed onto an open jeep and did a 30-minute victory lap around Badal, the village where he started his political life as a sarpanch in 1947. He was accompanied by a crowd beating drums—the sound of victory. In contrast, the sounds of celebration that had resounded around the house of Amarinder Singh, the Congress’s chief ministerial candidate, ever since polling day on January 30, abruptly fell silent after the first 15 minutes of counting on March 6. The first leads broadcast on TV showed the Congress in front with 11 versus Shiromani Akali Dal- Bharatiya Janata Party’s (SAD-BJP) two. But it progressed rap- AMARINDER SINGH ATA idly into early indications of a big win for the ruling combine. PRESS CONFERENCE IN For the last 40 years, Punjab had been switching between CHANDIGARH ON MARCH 6 Akali and Congress governments. Amarinder had been so sure it was now his turn that he even scheduled a victory per cent reservation, the SP talked of 18 per cent. So how can press conference at noon. Instead, he offered his resignation you say it harmed us?” asks Digvijaya. But his trigger-happy as state party chief “if Sonia Gandhi so advises”. At the statements made a serious dent in the Congress campaign. beginning of the campaign, he had declared this would be his If it was not Digvijaya talking about imposing Governor’s last election. “I’m turning 70 this year, I don’t see myself fight- Rule, it was Khurshid claiming that Sonia had wept when ing another election,” he had said. Amarinder’s defeat has she saw pictures of the Batla House encounter. Eager to already set opportunist Congressmen lobbying to become jump onto this bandwagon, another Cabinet minister, next chief-minister-in-waiting, come elections in 2017. Sriprakash Jaiswal, claimed that “Rahul could become The Punjab defeat has shocked the Congress out of its prime minister at midnight if he so desired”. born-to-rule stupor. It had hoped to wipe out an indifferent It is this kind of arrogance that the voter of Uttar performance in Uttar Pradesh with a win in Punjab and Pradesh, Punjab, Goa and even to a great extent Uttarakhand. Acknowledging that despite being in the Uttarakhand, has rejected. The Gandhis no longer have the Opposition, the state unit was burdened by an anti-incum- dynastic right to rule, not even in the pocket-boroughs of bency targeted at the Congress-ruled Government at the Amethi and Rae Bareli. Moreover, Rahul’s angry young man Centre, Ludhiana’s “deeply disappointed” MP and AICC persona, complete with the bearded look and rolled up spokesperson Manish Tewari conceded: “There is a sullen kurta sleeves, puzzled the Uttar Pradesh electorate instead anti-Congress mood across urban India.” Privately, most of galvanising them. “Amitabh Bachchan’s angry young Congress leaders agree with him. What is also worrying is

36 INDIA TODAY ◆ MARCH 19, 2012 COVER STORY VERDICT 2012

PTI FACES OF CHANGE Sukhbir and Akhilesh stand for development

Akhilesh Yadav, 38 His red cap at a jaunty angle announcing socialist pedigree,Yadav junior charmed voters with promises of free laptops and Muslim reservations.Akhilesh taught his Luddite father how to perfect the winning strategy on an Apple laptop. Musclemen were rejected. He struck a fine balance between modernity and tradition.

Sukhbir Badal, 49 From healthcare to tax breaks, Sukhbir Badal’s stump talk introduced a new grammar in the Akali rhetoric. Steering the party away from its divisive panthic identity, Badal junior focused on development and governance. His social engineering worked: All but three of the 12 Hindu candidates won.

the cocoon which the party leadership has wrapped itself in. BJP’S MANOHAR PARRIKAR, WHO WILL BE GOA’S NEW CHIEF MINISTER Sonia has said that the current results will have no impact them and a promise to “teach the Akalis a lesson”. But they on the stability of UPA 2. Maybe not in numbers, as Mulayam failed to show people their own futuristic vision in the state. Singh Yadav has stated that he continues to support the The party’s manifesto, a watered down version of SAD’s no- Congress at the Centre to stave off BJP. But the recent poll holds-barred populism, too fell short of building a credible defeat will certainly affect the quality of governance. and proactive alternative to Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir With the Congress having little hope of bettering its fig- Badal’s development agenda. ure of 209 MPs in the current Lok Sabha, the party will need Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, too, is closely identi- to tone down its big brotherly attitude towards regional lead- fied with Punjab. Such was the anger against UPA that there ers if it wants their help to stay in power after the next were few demands for him to campaign in his home state. General Elections. What is worrying Congressmen is that Sonia has admitted the price hike could be one of the rea- unlike Sonia, her son has little rapport with regional lead- sons for the defeat. Other ministers from the state like ers. The only regional ally Rahul has an equation with is Pawan Bansal, Ambika Soni, Ashwani Kumar—and even Omar Abdullah, whose own popularity is on the wane. Kapil Sibal’s Punjabi credentials—failed to sway the voter. Sonia Gandhi understated the loss to the media, saying, “We had better hope for Punjab.” Instead of introspection, she preferred to blame Manpreet Badal’s People’s Party of Punjab (PPP). “PPP damaged us in 23 seats,” she said. To an Fallen But Intact extent she is right. Despite Manpreet’s attempts to forge a vi- Mayawati manages to preserve her social core able third alternative, all he managed to do was draw the By S. Prasannarajan anti-incumbency votes away from Congress. But, as in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress campaign in Defeat shatters the illusion. On the day after the mandate Punjab was flawed. Unlike the Samajwadi Party and the that brought her down from the make-believe of invincibil- Akali Dal, the party failed to reinvent with the times. The tri- ity to the harsh reality of rejection and humiliation, Mayawati umph of SAD-BJP, says Pramod Kumar, director of looked more human, unlike her inanimate marble doubles. Chandigarh’s Institute for Development & Communication, When she walked in to face the media in Lucknow, the im- comes amid “a significant reinvention of the Akali Dal’s tra- perial gait was missing, and when she spoke, the words were ditional agenda”. Finally seeking closure with its post- not disembodied commandments meant for the consump- Operation Bluestar politics, the party steered clear of divisive tion of a servile gaggle of reporters. She answered the ques- panthic slogans and instead opted for populism and develop- tions, rather suffered them, with the kind of modesty that ment. SAD also socially re-engineered itself to co-opt urban was not associated with yesterday’s Empress of Awadh. And Hindus. Significantly, nine of the 12 Hindus, who for the first in deconstructing her own fall, she was more clinical than time found a place in SAD’s candidates list, won their elections. emotional: “Across the state, the Dalits have voted for the In contrast, Amarinder and his men promised their BSP. That is why the BSP is Number 2. Otherwise my position supporters retribution for the repression unleashed upon would have been like Lalu’s in Bihar.” She is right. She has

38 INDIA TODAY ◆ MARCH 19, 2012 COVER STORY VERDICT HOWPUNJAB VOTED 2012 Dalits and backwards turned away from Congress, the uneducated voted for SAD-BJP but some urban voters switched to PPP MANEESH AGNIHOTRI/www.indiatodayimages.com PUNJAB PUNJAB MAJHA 2007 2012 The region has a large percentage of ASSEMBLYSEATS ASSEMBLYSEATS devout Sikhs, yet CONGRESS 44 CONGRESS 46 Akalis lost seats. SAD+BJP 67 SAD+BJP 68 Total Seats 25 OTHERS 56 OTHERS 3 Congress 9 (+6) SAD-BJP 16 (-8) TOTAL 117 TOTAL 117 Others 0

DOABA Congress’s traditional bastion, where it didn’t gain much because the cities voted against the UPA. Total Seats 23 Map not to scale Congress 6 (+2) GRAPHICS: MADHUMANGAL SINGH, SAURABH SINGH/www.indiatodayimages.com SAD-BJP 16 (-4) Others 1 CONGRESS VOTE % SAD+BJP VOTE % MALWA TRIPLE BLOW Congress was expected to MAJHA 41.2 (-1.3) 47.2 (-2.3) MAYAWATI COMES OUT Congress lost 6 of its 2007 tally do better because of Dera FROM RAJ BHAVAN IN of 37 in Punjab’s biggest battle- Sacha Sauda support. But DOABA 37.1 (-1.2) 41.3 (-5.4) LUCKNOW ON MARCH 7 field, the Malwa region. Central Jat farmers played spoiler. Doaba too left the party gasping MALWA 40.6 (-1.4) 40.3 (-3.3) Total Seats 69 with barely 6 of its 23 seats. Congress 31 (-6) Majha went the SAD-BJP way. SAD-BJP 36 (+12) Figures in brackets lost Uttar Pradesh but more or less retained her base. matched by the happiness index, a far more powerful vote TOTAL 40.1 (-0.8) 41.92 (-3.6) represent change Statistics vindicate her. The difference in vote share be- gatherer. She has none to blame but her own imperial self. Others 2 since 2007 Figures in brackets represent change since 2007 tween the SP and the BSP is just 3.3 per cent, though Mayawati’s The more she retreated into the fortress of 5 Kalidas current tally of 25.9 per cent is 4.5 per cent less than her share Marg in Lucknow, the more she distanced herself from the in the 2007 Assembly elections. Then, 2007 was as much a hearts of the voters who celebrated her in 2007. No leader CASTE OUT READ IT RIGHT WOMEN DON’T landslide for her as 2012 is for Mulayam. Otherwise, in the steeped in the kitsch of social justice can take the people for Congress lost Hindu Dalits, Hindu OBCs, The educated supported Congress and WANT CONGRESS last two General Elections and in the latest poll, Mayawati’s granted—ask J. Jayalalithaa, or Lalu Prasad. The only glim- OBC Sikhs and Dalit Sikhs to Akalis Manpreet’s PPP at the cost of Akalis The women’s vote for Congress has vote has not fluctuated drastically; it has varied between 24 mer in the debris for Mayawati is that Dalits have not entirely Communities SAD+BJP Congress Category SAD+BJP Congress been declining since 2007 and 27 per cent. The imperishable—and effortlessly transfer- abandoned her, and she, still one of India’s most powerful Gender SAD+BJP Congress able—social vote is something unique in politics, but Dalits politicians, has five years to arm herself for the next fight. Hindu Dalits 32% (+3) 39% (-14) Uneducated 42% (-2) 42% (-3) alone cannot win the state for her. And she should know that Powerlessness may even humanise her further. Hindu OBCs 43% (+7) 34% (-17) Graduates 41% (-9) 40% (+2) Men 40% (-4) 41% by the magnitude of her victory in 2007 and the velocity of her fall five years later. Here too, Mayawati is her party’s best pun- OBC Sikhs 46% (+4) 43% (-1) Figures in brackets represent change since 2007 Women 43% (-5) 39% (-2) dit: “Finding the Congress weak and the OBC and upper castes Eternal Wait Dalit Sikhs 34% (+4) 48% (-2) Figures in brackets represent change since 2007 pro-BJP, Muslims en masse voted for the SP. Seventy per cent Figures in brackets represent change since 2007 of the Muslims voted for the SP.” THE YOUNG HAND The mathematics of caste, though, doesn’t tell the entire for a Leader The young were not swayed by story. It also doesn’t explain why Mayawati, whose every day Mixed fortune brings out BJP’s crisis of leadership CITIES ARE NOT SAD SUKHBIR the Akali Dal.The Congress gained in office in the last five years was a preparation for March 6, By Bhavna Vij-Aurora Akali Dal-BJP lost in the urban areas, BADAL among youth marginally. failed to sway the rural poor. This failure only magnifies the which turned to Manpreet Badal Among SAD+BJP Congress limits of the singular leader of a party built on the aspirations Jubilant leaders rushed to BJP President Nitin Gadkari’s Among SAD+BJP Congress and empowerment of the dispossessed. The development home as early trends in Uttar Pradesh indicated that the Up to 25 years 44% (-3) 41% (+2) index of Uttar Pradesh defies the stereotype of the misgov- party was in the second spot, behind Samajwadi Party (SP). Rural 44% (-1) 39% (-2) 56 years or more 43% (-5) 37% erned badlands. During Mayawati’s reign, the state registered RSS leader Ram Lal and party General Secretary Ananth Urban 35% (-11) 43% (+2) a growth rate of 7.28 per cent, just below the national aver- Kumar were among the first ones to arrive at Gadkari’s 13, Figures in brackets represent change since 2007 age of 8.15 per cent; and remember, in the previous 10 years, Teen Murti Lane on March 6. Gadkari asked them to wait. It Figures in brackets represent change since 2007 Compiled by Sanjay Kumar, Fellow at when India grew at a rate of 7.4 per cent, the Uttar Pradesh was too early to be in a self-congratulatory mood. He was Source: CSDS Data Unit Centre for the Study of Developing Societies average was a dismal 4.4 per cent. The growth index was not working the phones in his study-cum-office, inquiring how

42 INDIA TODAY ◆ MARCH 19, 2012 MARCH 19, 2012 ◆ INDIA TODAY 43 COVER STORY VERDICT 2012 the key candidates were performing, even as he flipped Arun Jaitley admitted on February 27 that there were dif- channels on the 40 inch LCD television. ferences within the party over Joshi’s re-induction. It was In restrospect, it was a wise move. By noon, it was clear the main reason why party’s star campaigner Narendra that the party would have to settle for the third spot in Uttar Modi stayed away from Uttar Pradesh. Pradesh with 47 seats (four less than the last time) in the 403- Though Gadkari tried to play down Modi’s absence from member Assembly. Gadkari took a call to give the verdict a the state, BJP leader Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi admitted that positive spin: Look at the bigger picture, focus on victories in people missed Modi. “It would have been better if Modi had Punjab and Goa, and the near-victory in Uttarakhand. joined the election campaign in Uttar Pradesh,” he said. In Uttar Pradesh, the strategy was to highlight the poor Even the idea of putting the divisive sanyasin in the state left performance of the Congress. His entry at the party head- most of the local leaders in Uttar Pradesh unhappy. The quarters for a media briefing later in the day was heralded entry of Kushwaha was the most controversial decision as by bursting of crackers and beating of dhols. The message all senior party leaders, including Bharati, felt that it af- was unequivocal. The party was celebrating its victories and fected the BJP’s strong stand against corruption. not wallowing in the Uttar Pradesh defeat. But Gadkari was disappointed with the poor showing of the party in Uttar Pradesh. For him, elections in the state owever, Gadkari remained unfazed by the were a personal project. He was involved in it since August Hcriticism. Even during ticket distribution, he left 2011, when he decided to bring back RSS functionary and many senior Uttar Pradesh leaders unhappy by not former BJP organisational secretary Sanjay Joshi into the accommodating their candidates. “Taking decisions party, and give him the charge of the party’s campaign for based on likes and dislikes of leaders is against the party’s Uttar Pradesh elections. Gadkari personally vetted each and culture and ideology. We sat for 10 entire nights, every candidate before handing out the party ticket. He discussing each and every seat and possible winnable went about the task in a systematic manner after working candidate. Tickets were given only on merit,’’ he asserted out the social profile and caste intricacies of each seat. He at the media briefing on March 6. ensured the return of Uma Bharati with the firm backing of Then what went wrong? “People wanted to get rid of the RSS. Gadkari also welcomed four BSP discards into the the corrupt Mayawati government. They voted for a party party, including NRHM scam-accused Babu Singh Kushwaha. they thought was strong enough to defeat BSP,” Gadkari Both, Bharati and Kushwaha were brought in to woo the explained at a press conference. A senior party leader was OBCs and enlarge the party vote bank. None of them seemed more realistic. “We had Manohar Parrikar in Goa, Parkash to have worked to BJP’s advantage. Singh Badal in Punjab and B.C. Khanduri in Uttarakhand. There was simmering resentment about all these deci- We had nobody in Uttar Pradesh,” he rued. Even Khanduri sions within the party. Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha was brought in too late, barely six months before the elec-

NITIN GADKARI (SECOND FROM LEFT) AND OTHER BJP LEADERS ATA PRESS CONFERENCE ON MARCH 6

CHANDRADEEP KUMAR/ www.indiatodayimages.com

MARCH 19, 2012 ◆ INDIA TODAY 45 COVER STORY VERDICT 2012

PTI Single Party Resurgence UP and Punjab signal the end of the hung verdict By Bhavna Vij-Aurora

Uttar Pradesh has again voted decisively in favour of a sin- gle party. In 2007, it was Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) which got a majority with 206 seats. This time the vot- ers did not want the BSP. They also did not want a hung Assembly with various parties bargaining for post-poll berths. So they voted for a party they thought could deliver. Punjab bucked the trend of anti-incumbency for the first time since 1967. The people assertively ensured the return of SAD-BJP government. The combine got 68 of the total 117 seats. Goa is also a classic example of a state that is known for its fractured mandates. However, this time the UTTARAKHAND CHIEF voters did not want an unstable government run on the MINISTER B.C. KHANDURI whims and fancies of corrupt ministers. The issue of illegal mining, taken up vociferously by BJP leader Manohar tions, after a bitter leadership struggle. The infighting in Parrikar, became the rallying point for the strong anti- Uttarakhand BJP denied the party a victory in the state. Congress sentiment. They voted the BJP in with 21 seats in However, the party got it right in Goa, where the pres- a 40-seat Assembly. In 2007, BJP had 14 seats and Congress ence of a local leader made all the difference. Goa voted for held 16. Goa voters also broke another myth—that the the clean image of Manohar Parrikar, 56. Even the Catholics, Catholics are traditionally Congress voters—as they voted who form 28 per cent of Goa’s population, played a major for a stable development-oriented government. Manipur role in the BJP’s win as the party managed to get 9 per cent too voted for a majority, giving Congress 42 of the 60 seats. votes of the community. BJP fielded five Catholics and all of If Uttarakhand threw up a split verdict—with Congress 32 them won. “Catholics did not have enough representation in seats and BJP 31—it is more because of differences within BJP earlier. This time we convinced them to stand by us to the BJP. Had the BJP installed B.C. Khanduri as the chief min- defeat the corrupt Congress. Our argument that Parrikar’s ister earlier than September 2011, and sorted out the inter- four-and-a-half year regime (between 2000 and 2005) was nal differences, it could have got a clear majority. the best period for Catholics worked in our favour,” BJP The trend of a decisive vote has been seen in other states

strategist Sanjeev Desai told INDIA TODAY. PTI A metallurgical engineer from IIT-Mumbai, Parrikar is known for his simple lifestyle and straight talk. He lost out in the race for BJP’s presidentship in 2009 after his controversial comment on party leader L.K. Advani, com- paring him to “rancid pickle”. The party may have forgiven him the comment but what he said is still an issue that BJP has failed to resolve. Advani, despite being rejected by the voters twice in 2004 and 2009, still remains a contender for the party’s prime ministerial candidate. The absence of a unifying national leader is bound to affect the party’s chances adversely in 2014. The 2012 polls failed to throw up a credible leader that the party could project as their prime ministerial candidate. The names of the same leaders, inimical to one another, keep cropping up—Modi, Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Rajnath Singh and Gadkari himself. It does not seem likely that the party will agree to any one name, probably leaving it to the RSS to MANIPUR CHIEF MINISTER O. IBOBI SINGH (LEFT) WITH STATE thrust another leader upon them. CONGRESS CHIEF GAIKHANGAM IN IMPHAL ON MARCH 7

46 INDIA TODAY ◆ MARCH 19, 2012 COVER STORY VERDICT 2012 too in earlier elections. Voters left no scope for any post-poll permutations and combinations as they brought in Mamata ALL OUT FOR A DUCK Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress and J. Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK Superstar MPs, expected to deliver Assembly seats to power with a clear majority in the 2011 Assembly polls. falling under their constituencies, floundered In 2010, it was the people of Bihar who voted in the Nitish Kumar-led government with BJP winning 91 seats and his NAME OF MP PARTY LOK SABHA ASSEMBLYSEATS party JD(U) getting 115. Maharashtra had sprung a surprise CONSTITUENCY DELIVERED in 2009 as Congress-NCP combine reached the halfway mark Md.Azharuddin Congress Moradabad 0 (out of 5) with 144 of the 288 seats. The state saw a ruling front with Raj Babbar Congress Firozabad 0 (out of 5) a clear majority in the House for the first time since 1990. Jayaprada Rashtriya Lok Manch Rampur 0 (out of 5) Political parties and observers are now waiting for the crucial Assembly elections—Gujarat, Delhi, Rajasthan, Rajnath Singh BJP Ghaziabad 0 (out of 5) Chhattisgarh, Jammu and Kashmir and Tripura next year. Maneka Gandhi BJP Aonla 1 (out of 5) “No leader or party can take the voters for granted anymore. Sonia Gandhi Congress Rae Bareli 0 (out of 5) If they don’t want you, they will throw you out forcefully and Rahul Gandhi Congress Amethi 2 (out of 5) conclusively. Narendra Modi should take heed. His fate is next. If people do not want him, he will lose with a big mar- BJP Pilibhit 1 (out of 5) gin,’’ predicts a BJP leader. The politics of change ensures rich Ajit Singh RLD Baghpat 2 (out of 5) dividends and single-party stability. Jitin Prasada Congress Dhaurahra 0 (out of 5) Salman Khurshid Congress Farrukhabad 0 (out of 5) Who Wants a Sriprakash Jaiswal Congress Kanpur 1 (out of 5) Beni Prasad Verma Congress Gonda 0 (out of 5) Snap Poll? R.P.N.Singh Congress Kushi Nagar 2 (out of 5) Kalyan Singh Independent Etah 0 (out of 5) Regional parties are smelling blood (Jan Kranti Party) By Dhiraj Nayyar Yogi Adityanath BJP Gorakhpur 2 (out of 5) “Mid-term polls are likely,” said Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha Sushma Swaraj soon after a Congress rout in Uttar Trinamool Congress leader, Mamata Banerjee harbours Pradesh and Punjab was apparent on March 6. Swaraj, prime ministerial ambitions in the event that neither the however, ruled out any attempt by BJP to precipitate a fall of Congress nor BJP is in a position to form the next the UPA Government. BJP need not do anything. The real Government. In a 1996-like scenario, she could be a con- threat to the survival of the UPA Government comes from two sensus ‘Gowda’ if she has 25-30 seats in her bag. parties, Trinamool Congress, part of UPA, and Samajwadi Other parties would also gain from an early election, even Party, which supports UPA from the outside. If both parties if they are not in a position to bring down the incumbent. In were to withdraw support to the UPA, the Government would Tamil Nadu, Jayalalitha’s AIADMK, which routed DMK in the almost certainly fall. Both parties stand to gain substantially May 2011 Assembly elections, will be looking at victory in at from a Lok Sabha election in 2012. least 25 seats, almost three times the seats it won in 2009. The SP has 23 MPs in the current Lok Sabha. If the The Shiromani Akali Dal, which won only four seats in 2009, Assembly election results were to be mirrored in a General could double its tally based on its Assembly election perform- Election—that is usually the case when the two are held in ance. Other regional parties which are incumbent in state quick succession—SP would almost double its tally to 45 MPs. governments but pitted against the Congress, like BJD in It would become an even more pivotal player than it already Orissa, would also capitalise on the strong anti-Congress is in the stability of a government at the Centre. With 45 MPs, feeling at the Centre and win at least as many seats (14) as it could conceivably be at the core of a new front of regional it did last time. The Janata Dal (United) in Bihar won 20 seats parties. For now, SP insists it is focused on 2014. Says party in 2009. With its alliance partner BJP, it cornered 32 seats out spokesperson Rajendra Chaudhury, “The party will enforce of 40. There may be some gains at the expense of RJD and LJP all the announcements made in the manifesto. This will help but the Congress is not a player in Bihar. in the coming Parliament elections in 2014.” BJP may yet engineer a fall of the UPA Government in The Trinamool Congress has 19 MPs in the current Lok 2012. It will certainly be a big gainer from the decline of the Sabha. If its crushing victory over the Left Front in the May Congress. The INDIA TODAY Mood of the Nation Poll in January 2011 Assembly elections were to mirror in a General had predicted that BJP would win 140 seats if a Lok Sabha Election, it would win 25 seats, and its alliance partner election were to be held then. The immediate pressure is, Congress would win around six. According to one veteran however, from within. ■

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