Verdict 2012
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COVER STORY VERDICT 2012 By M.J. Akbar fall from grace is par for the course. A slide into humiliation is another discourse. Defeat is the familiar price of failure in democ- racy. Humiliation is retribution for WILLUPASURVIVE a more dangerous sin, arrogance. Parties often blossom after an Aelection victory, as Congress did after 2004; very few retain any relationship with reality after re-election. The trap of 2012 was set in 2009. Rahul Gandhi sought to win his electoral spurs in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh on the road to the Prime Minister’s office. After two years of effort THIS SUMMER? and expense, he has just discovered that he has A battered Congress stares at an ominous future as belligerent allies are likely to strike at the UPA Government’s weakest moment neither horse nor direction along the Gangetic belt. Family, in these egalitarian times, is an PARKASH (LEFT) AND SUKHBIR SINGH inadequate rationale for office. BADAL ATTHE GOLDEN TEMPLE, AMRITSAR Dynasties are loath to admit mistakes, since they damage their principal claim to power, mystique. Even a punctured prince must be praised, therefore, if for nothing else than hard work, as if hard work is perfectly understandable for mortals like Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati but a labour of love for a prince. Everyone works hard in an election. Defeat cannot be a prince’s fault: Candidates were wrong, or the party was to blame and not a whisper about who chose the candidates, or who was in charge of building the party. A curtain of ali- bis becomes a tattered cloak. Rahul Gandhi is not young. At his age, 41, his great grandfather Jawaharlal presided over the historic 1929 Lahore session and pushed through, despite the scepticism of his mentor Mahatma Gandhi, the swaraj resolution which formally committed the Congress to complete independence from the British. Jawaharlal soared ahead in national esteem on the wing of ideas, not slogans undercooked by trainee chefs who do not know the difference between hot air and nourishment. Jawaharlal was an intellectual who bridged a formidable library with the poverty of a village, and was at home in both environments. He learnt his poli- tics from peasant and Mahatma, as well as from the pre- www.indiatodayimages.com scriptions of an ancient sage he so admired, Chanakya. When in 321 BC Chandragupta sought to overthrow Mahapadma Nanda [‘the son of a barber’], Chanakya offered some sensible advice: Remember how your mother MANEESH AGNIHOTRI/ PRABHJOT GILL taught you to eat a hot chapatti—begin from the edges. AKHILESH (LEFT) AND MULAYAM YADAV ATTHE RAJ BHAVAN IN LUCKNOW MARCH 19, 2012 ◆ INDIA TODAY 27 COVER STORY VERDICT 2012 SOMITRA GHOSH THE DOWN STAIRCASE when the next President of India is elected. If the Congress SONIA GANDHI Congress got a mere 28 seats, much lower than even its own fails to get its candidate through, the party might not be over, ADDRESSES THE most modest estimation in Uttar Pradesh but the Government will be. MEDIA ON MARCH 7 ASSEMBLY GENERAL ASSEMBLY During its first term, when Pranab Mukherjee was in POLLS 2012 ELECTIONS UP 2009 POLLS 2007* charge of UPA’s security, he played off friend, foe and the PARTY SEATS VOTE%** SEATS VOTE% SEATSVOTE% large grey mass in the middle with finesse and dexterity; he postponed any budding problem till the point where the BSP 80 25.9 20 27.4 206 30.4 advantage tipped in the Congress’s favour. After 2009, the Congress has done everything to alienate its allies, and snub SP 224 30 23 23.4 97 25.4 those it might have reached out to. Others have, as a BJP 47 15 10 17 51 16.9 consequence, created space in the middle, where even parties within the ruling alliance can occasionally rest when CONG 28 11 21 18.2 22 8.6 tired of being nice to Congress. Those who do not dare step out, like DMK, are as sullen as scapegoats. Congress has RLD 9 35 2103.7 used tax authorities to blackmail partners into good behav- iour, not the best way to bond. Those without any option but OTHERS 15 15 1 11.38 17 15 silence, become good at waiting for their moment. That * Before delimitation * * estimates moment could be this summer. In straight political mathematics, association with NUMBERS CRUNCH CONGRESS PUNJAB 117 MANIPUR 60 Congress is slowly turning into a liability. Congress leaders SP in Uttar Pradesh, Akali Dal-BJP in 2012 2007 2012 2007 like spokesman Manish Tewari are beginning to admit that Punjab and BJP in Goa were clear SAD 56 48 Cong 42 30 there is sweeping urban resentment against the party. This winners.Congress swept only Manipur. Cong 46 44 TMC 7 0 is, once again, a reversal from UPA 1, when Congress added BJP 12 19 NCP 1 5 value to an ally’s vote base. But the decisive impetus will come UTTAR PRADESH 403 Others 3 6 Others 10 25 2012 2007 from the Agatha Christie question: Who benefits from death SP 224 97 in the drawing room, or, in a more straightforward simile, the UTTARAKHAND 70 GOA 40 YASBANT NEGI/ www.indiatodayimages.com BSP 80 206 2012 2007 2012 2007 BJP 47 51 Cong 32 22 BJP 21 14 Cong 28 22 BJP 31 34 Cong 9 16 Others 24 27 Others 7 14 Others 10 10 Graphics by SAURABH SINGH/www.indiatodayimages.com Rahul Gandhi’s strategy, literally and metaphorically, was the Singh Yadav to office, and in constituencies where reverse. He operated from the centre. From the comfort of strategic voting made more sense, he elected fellow a power perch in Delhi, he converted the chapatti into a Muslims across labels. This UP Assembly will see the high- jigsaw puzzle. His advisers thought each geographical or est number of Muslim MLAs, 69. Every major party—SP, BSP demographic piece could be adjusted by money, legislative and Congress—will have the same percentage of Muslim illusion or emotional patronage. MLAs, between 20 to 30 per cent. After all the From this emerged a campaign of smoke and mirrors. huff and puff, Congress has four Muslims in its total of 28. A cash award was assigned to Bundelkhand. The Dalit heart The Peace Party has three out of its four. There should be was meant to melt at the sight of a prince dropping in for a a lesson in this somewhere. meal. Rahul Gandhi’s problem is not that he is young, but Congress President Sonia Gandhi thought the crisis that he continued to play with toy soldiers in his electoral was serious enough to merit that rare indulgence called a war room. Gestures became a substitute for substance. He press conference. She let slip a thought that should trouble rolled up his sleeves. He toyed with the length of his beard. her colleagues, that the problem was too many leaders I trust that Rahul Gandhi is not going to tear up any rather than lack of leadership. But we shall let the party opponent’s manifesto for a long time. worry about that. Her more substantive comment was that The biggest play was made for the Muslim vote, with UPA still had time to correct its mistakes, since the next promises that were tainted with compromise. The dust of General Elections were in 2014. reservations was thrown into the eye and pantomime It is possible that news from Kolkata had not reached paraded as drama. Second rank Congress leaders began to her. Her ally, Mamata Banerjee, publicly celebrated compete for awards in histrionics. Those with literary Mulayam Singh Yadav’s victory in Uttar Pradesh. This does fantasies offered little drops of blood to fertilise seeds of not quite sound like a ringing endorsement of UPA as it future glory. The only astute player in this game was presently exists. Long before the General Elections of 2014, the Muslim voter: On a bulk level, he drove Mulayam there will be an electoral test for UPA, in July this year, 28 INDIA TODAY ◆ MARCH 19, 2012 COVER STORY VERDICT 2012 collapse of Dr Manmohan Singh’s creased its vote: among Hindu second Government? FUTURE SHOCK Dalits, Hindu OBCs, Sikh OBCs and Just as the Congress, as Mrs All MPs and MLAs constitute the elec- Sikh Dalits. It was always Gandhi pointed out, needs time, toral college for presidential elections. pompous to believe that Anna others need to be in a hurry. Held in accordance with the system of Hazare’s campaign would have Mamata Banerjee, J. Jayalalithaa, proportional representation by means no impact, a view cooked up at Nitish Kumar, N. Jaganmohan of a single transferable vote, each mem- Congress headquarters and dis- Reddy, Chandrababu Naidu, Naveen ber has a certain value depending upon seminated with alarming ease by Patnaik, Prakash Karat, Nitin the population of the state they repre- sections of the media. Gadkari, Mulayam Singh Yadav, sent. The value of SP votes has jumped Some facts will linger like a Mayawati, Parkash Singh Badal and from 38,531 to 69,651 following the UP terrible, toxic cold. Dr Singh, the Om Prakash Chautala may have results and will be decisive in the elec- first Sikh Prime Minister, has lost enough contradictions between tion of the next President in July. Punjab twice to the Akalis. The them to confuse a doctorate in logic, first time could have been care- but they want an election when the MINIMUM VOTES NEEDED 5,48,507 lessness; the second time is pun- Congress is at its weakest. Through- ishment. Mrs Gandhi has lost all out 2012, Congress will remain PARTY VALUE OF Assembly seats in Rae Bareli, shaken by the UP-Punjab earth- VOTES despite the continual presence of quake.