Issues & Options April - 2012

Issue: I No: IV

Constitutional Promises - Still a Dream Betrayal of Trusteeship

Indo – Pak Back Channel Uncalled For Sri Lanka: An Area of Vital Interest

and many more ….

Published By : Vivekananda International Foundation 3, San Martin Marg, Chanakyapuri, New Delhi – 110021, [email protected], www.vifindia.org

Contents

Articles

Worrisome Trends For National Parties An Insider’s Perspective 51 3 - A. Surya Prakash - Kanwal Sibal

Need To Review The Constitution Voting Against Sri Lanka 60 11 - RNP Singh - PP Shukla

Trusteeship And Trust Better Government To Government 20 Efforts Needed To Rejuvenate - Dr. M.N. Buch Nepal- Relations 65

Indian Maoists: The Extent Of Their - Hari Bansh Jha External Linkages 30 Recent Political Turmoil Inside The - Dr. N. Manoharan Communist Party Of China 75 Analysing India’s budget For 2012-13 - Dr. Binod Singh 36 - Dr. V. Anantha Nageswaran Chinese Chequers 79 Balochistan On The Boil, Pakistan In - Vice Admiral (retd) Barry Barathan Denial 40 - Sushant Sareen Events

84 Resumption Of India Pakistan Back Interaction with Mr. Michel Channel Talks: An Uncalled For Move Miraillet, Director Strategic Affair, Govt. Of France - Satish Chandra 47

Vimarsha: A Talk On ‘Functioning Of Parliamentary Democracy In India’ 87

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 2

Worrisome Trends For National Parties - A. Surya Prakash

he two main national of 56.50 per cent in Uttar Pradesh. parties – the Congress and In 2012, their share of the votes is T the Bharatiya Janata Party down by about 3 per cent. This (BJP) - are going to take a long still looks like a decent figure time to digest the bitter medicine because the BSP is classified as a that has been administered to national party. If not, the share of them by the electorate in the national parties would be just 28 recent assembly elections held in per cent. Similarly, there is a five states. Apart from the fact marginal drop of about 2 per cent that these election results have in the vote share of national once again shown the declining parties in Punjab as compared to popularity of national parties, they 2007. have also shown that these parties are no big attraction for the youth It was clear during the run up to and women, especially in Uttar the election in Uttar Pradesh that Pradesh. the Congress and the BJP were fighting for the third and fourth The Election Commission positions. The two parties have classifies the Congress, BJP, the lived up to the general assessment two prominent communist parties, of their electoral strengths. But the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) what should be disquieting for and the Nationalist Congress both the parties is that out of the Party as national parties. These 403 assembly constituencies in are parties which cross a this state, the contest was mainly minimum threshold of votes in at between these two parties only in least four states. In the Lok Sabha 11 seats namely Mathura, election held in 2009, national Bilaspur, Govindnagar,Tamkuhi parties secured 63.58 per cent of Raj, Suar, Varanasi Cantt, the vote, with a good chunk of the Varanasi South, Kidwai Nagar, remaining 36 per cent going to Lucknow Cantt, Pharenda and state parties. In the assembly Saharanpur Nagar. In most of the elections held in 2007, the assembly segments, the fight was national parties had a vote share mainly between the Samajwadi * A. Surya Prakash - Senior Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 3 Party and the BSP and this left than before, the Samajwadi Party the two main national parties in stormed into the urban citadels of dire straits. A high percentage of these two parties. candidates (around 60 per cent) belonging to these two parties In 2012, 13.70 million new voters have forfeited their deposits and were registered in Uttar Pradesh, several of them have suffered as compared to 2007. Secondly, humiliating defeats. For example, since the voting percentage shot in Bah constituency, out of the up this time, 23.90 million more 1.83 lakh votes polled, the votes were cast in this election Congress secured 2411 votes and compared to 2007. In Punjab and the BJP, 2131. This means each Uttarakhand also, the number of party got just over 1 per cent of voters went up by 11 lakhs and the total votes polled! There are 3.80 lakhs respectively. But the many such examples. In Aliganj, most interesting and intriguing bit the BJP has polled less than 1 per of statistic which should interest cent of the 1.96 lakh votes polled. political pundits is that in all the The Congress has done marginally five states which went to the polls better with 4 per cent of the votes. – Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Again, in Akbarpur, the Congress Punjab, Goa, and Manipur - the managed just 4 per cent and the percentage of women who voted BJP less than 2 per cent of the this time was higher than that of 1.72 lakh votes polled. There are men by 2 to 3 per cent. The dozens of such examples, which difference was the highest in Goa. show how irrelevant the two In that state while 79.67 per cent parties had become in this of male voters exercised their election. The BJP also lost franchise, the turnout of women Ayodhya, a seat held by the party voters was 85.97. This means that continuously for 20 years. both first time voters and women found the Congress and the BJP The disappointment is certain to not worthy of support in Uttar be much more when these parties Pradesh. The BJP can feel good take into account the following that the new voters and women factors: This election saw a huge have given it and its ally the jump in first time voters; a higher thumbs up in Goa and Punjab. percentage of women voted in The Congress can similarly see these elections; and although Manipur, which witnessed a there are more urban seats now similar trend, as a consolation

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 4 prize. But the truth is that none of made inroads into many other this can obliterate the disturbing urban constituencies. message from Uttar Pradesh for these two parties. Yet another phenomenon that is certain to disturb the electoral Following the delimitation of base of the two main national assembly and Lok Sabha parties is the emergence of the constituencies in 2008, much of Peace Party of India (PPI). This the imbalance in the spread of party, launched by Muslims, made constituencies and total electors its debut only in 2009 and is now was corrected because the slowly but surely creeping up the Delimitation electoral ladder. In Commission this election it has decided to redraw Yet another phenomenon that bagged four Vidhan the boundaries is certain to disturb the Sabha seats and based on electoral base of the two main secured 2.35 per population. This national parties is the cent of the votes. also meant a jump emergence of the Peace Party But, the vote share in urban of India (PPI). This party, could be misleading constituencies in launched by Muslims, made its because of the all states. After debut only in 2009 and is now impact of its this Commission slowly but surely creeping up presence in 10-15 completed its task, the electoral ladder. In this per cent of the the BJP was happy election it has bagged four constituencies. The because there were Vidhan Sabha seats and data put out by the more urban secured 2.35 per cent of the party in its website constituencies now votes. is interesting. It than before. The won 4 seats, stood Congress too was pleased because second in three, third in 8 and it felt the Rahul spell would work fourth in 25 seats. In other words, in the urban areas and bring in the Peace Party has influenced the more seats. But the recent election outcome in this election in at least in Uttar Pradesh has changed all 40 seats. The website says the that. The Samajwadi Party has party over 50,000 votes in three made a confident entry into urban constituencies. It secured 20,000- pockets. For example, in Lucknow, 50,000 votes in 15 seats and 8000- it has edged out these parties in 25,000 votes in 52 seats. This is three of the five seats. It has also how the BSP started out in the

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 5 late 1980s and if this trend that together these two parties continues, the Peace Party will obtained 30.10 per cent of the make elections in Uttar Pradesh a popular vote. As against this, the five-cornered affair some years BJP secured 33.10 and the from now. The party’s website also Congress 14.40 per cent votes. In made the following observation other words, the two national which could be of value to political parties commanded 47.50 per cent analysts – “ Besides winning four of the vote in that state. In 2012 seats and securing second position one sees a neat reversal of this at three places PPI has influenced situation. The BSP (25.91) and the results of at least SP (29.15) together 61 other garnered 55 per constituencies Apart from the poor cent of the vote, where it secured performance of the Congress whereas the BJP ( more votes than Party, the 2012 results also 15.00 ) and the winning point to the declining influence Congress ( 11.63) margin”. It also of the party’s first family. In managed just 27 claimed that it had particular, the outcome in the per cent, which is “broken the myth” Amethi-Rae Bareli-Sultanpur much less than the that voting PPI belt in Uttar Pradesh should share of the BSP would benefit the be a matter of concern for the and SP in 1993. It BJP, “because the Nehru-Gandhis. The results will be an uphill BJP won only 8 show that the family’s vote task for these two seats out of the 61 bank has suffered considerable parties to regain constituencies depletion in this belt, which their pre-1993 mentioned above”. was considered its bastion for influence and to many decades. dislodge the SP and How the two BSP from their pre- national parties have grievously eminent perch. erred in their politics in the Hindi heartland is best explained by the Can the Nehru-Gandhis Bounce electoral performance of these two Back? parties vis-à-vis the BSP and SP over the last two decades. In the Apart from the poor performance Uttar Pradesh Vidhan Sabha of the Congress Party, the 2012 election held in 1993, the BSP results also point to the declining secured 11.50 and the SP 18.60 influence of the party’s first per cent of the vote, which meant family. In particular, the outcome

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 6 in the Amethi-Rae Bareli- – hardly anything to crow about. Sultanpur belt in Uttar Pradesh However, the little hope that one should be a matter of concern for sees in Amethi, is well and truly the Nehru-Gandhis. The results extinguished when one steps into show that the family’s vote bank Rae Bareli represented by has suffered considerable Ms. and Sultanpur, depletion in this belt, which was which returned Mr.Sanjay Singh considered its bastion for many in 2009. In Rae Bareli, of the 9.12 decades. Yet, given the distinct lakh votes polled, Congress electoral advantage that the candidates secured just 1.97 lakh family has over others, can we votes (22 per cent). The party lost presume that its charisma has all the five assembly seats. Enter evaporated altogether? A detailed Sultanpur, and you see the analysis of the results and their family’s electoral fortunes implications may be in order. virtually nose dive. Here, of the 8.84 lakh votes polled, the When the assembly results came Congress candidates secured just in on March 6, most analysts were 59817 votes amounting to a shocked to see that the Congress miserable 7 per cent of the votes Party won just 2 of the 15 polled. All of them lost their assembly segments - Amethi (SP), deposits. Jagdishpur (Cong), Gauriganj (SP), Tiloi (Cong), Salon (SP), Rae The macro picture of the Amethi- Bareli (Peace Party), Sareni (SP), Rae Bareli-Sultanpur belt is as Bachhrawan (SP), Harchandpur follows: Of the 26.70 lakh votes (SP), Unchahar (SP), Sultanpur polled in these constituencies in (SP), Sadar (SP), Lambhua (SP), 2012, the family could swing just Kadipur (SP), Isauli (SP) - falling 5.16 lakh votes in its favour, which within the Lok Sabha amounts to 19 per cent. But if one constituencies of Amethi, Rae sees it as a percentage of the total Bareli and Sultanpur. electors in these constituencies (44 lakhs approx), it is less than 12 As against 8.74 lakh votes polled per cent. This amounts to virtually in the five assembly segments in scraping the bottom of the ballot Amethi represented by Rahul box because the Nehru-Gandhis Gandhi, Congress candidates were out in full strength during bagged 2.59 lakh votes the campaign. Apart from Sonia constituting just under 30 per cent and , Priyanka and

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 7 Son-in-Law Robert Vadra also who stood tainted. He made no stepped out with their children to promise to fight corruption and campaign for the party. The therefore failed to connect with the contrast is even sharper when people and ride the crest of the seen against the party’s anti-corruption wave. Thereby he performance in the 2009 Lok let go the most “secular” issue Sabha election. In that election, of which troubled voters across the 20.21 lakh votes polled, the religions, castes and states. This party garnered 12.46 lakh votes was the prime reason for his (60 percent). In 2012, though the disastrous votes polled went performance in up to 26.70 lakhs, The other issue that repulsed U.P. the Congress voters was the crass attempt Party’s share made by the family and the The other issue slumped to just Congress Party to woo the that repulsed 5.16 lakh votes. Muslims. The results show voters was the that all the drama about crass attempt made From here on, reservations before the by the family and much depends on announcement of elections and the Congress Party how the Nehru- during the campaign failed to to woo the Gandhis view the impress this community. On Muslims. The results. Being one the other hand, the relentless results show that of the younger and often self-congratulatory all the drama about politicians in the proclamations regarding the reservations before country who has party’s commitment to the announcement not held any public reservation for Muslims of elections and office (and is alienated several sections of during the therefore the Hindus. campaign failed to untainted) and who impress this appeared to be sincere, Rahul community. On the other hand, Gandhi was perceived as a natural the relentless and often self- ally by millions of citizens who congratulatory proclamations supported the anti-corruption regarding the party’s commitment movement. However, their to reservation for Muslims expectations were belied when alienated several sections of the Mr.Gandhi virtually became a Hindus. The results show that the spokesman for the union Muslims lent massive support to government and the politicians the Samajwadi Party and even

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 8 gave a leg up to the fledgling predilections to get the better of Peace Party, promoted by their judgement. Even today, Muslims. The Peace Party even though their hold over the won the Rae Bareli assembly seat electorate has declined, the in Sonia Gandhi’s Lok Sabha Nehru-Gandhis remain the constituency by a huge margin country’s best vote pullers at the and pushed the Congress to third national level. That is why Indira place. Clearly, the Muslims gave Gandhi could win comfortably the Congress the thumbs down. from Chickmagalur in Karnataka Significantly, the Peace Party got in 1978 and Sonia Gandhi from its share of the Muslim vote and Bellary in 1999. The fascination of determined the outcome in at least the electorate for members of this 40 seats in the state. family extends to the Sanjay- Maneka branch – as well. Will the Congress Party persist Ms.Maneka Gandhi has won with its policy of chasing this comfortably from Pilibhit in five chimera called the Muslim Vote? elections, two of which she Since its arch rival – the contested as an independent. Her Bharatiya Janata Party – is losing son, Mr. has now out on Hindu support, will the stepped in and taken her place as Congress Party re-work its the MP from Pilibhit, while relations with large sections of the Ms.Gandhi has shifted to Aonla. Hindus? Why did Rahul Gandhi fail in Uttar Pradesh? Is it because That members of this family have the family’s charisma is on the a distinct advantage over others in wane or is it because he espoused electoral contests in many parts of all the wrong causes? From here the country should now be beyond on, much will depend on the dispute. It is also a fact that the answers that the Congress Party Rajiv-Sonia branch has a far and the Nehru-Gandhis come up greater sway over the electorate. with for all these questions. However, this does not necessarily guarantee success at the hustings. Those who are predicting the end Members of this family can of the charisma of the Nehru- leverage this advantage only if Gandhis and writing their political they have their finger on the pulse obituary after seeing the U.P of the people, be on the side of results are acting in haste or good governance, have a allowing their political nationalist approach and shun

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 9 denominational politics. Whenever The image of the Manmohan they score low on these four counts Singh government has taken such as they did in 1977, 1989 and 1999 a beating over the last 18 months and 2012, the Nehru-Gandhi that the Congress Party’s lineage turns into a distinct campaign against other political disadvantage. We must therefore parties failed to carry conviction in wait and see whether they wish to four states. The anti-incumbency regain their sentiment against charisma or see it the union Finally, a word about anti- slowly but surely government was so incumbency. Whenever there is ebb away. strong that this talk of an anti-incumbency eventually wave, everyone presumes there Finally, a word prevailed in all the about anti- is only one incumbent – the party in power in the state. states except incumbency. They seem to forget that there Manipur. If this be Whenever there is is another incumbent – the so in elections to talk of an anti- party that runs the union state assemblies, incumbency wave, government – which is also a one can well everyone presumes contender for power in the imagine what there is only one state. The image of the awaits the incumbent – the government Congress Party in a party in power in has taken such a beating over Lok Sabha election! the state. They the last 18 months that the In any case, both seem to forget that Congress Party’s campaign the national parties there is another against other political parties need to go back to incumbent – the failed to carry conviction in the drawing board. party that runs the four states. union government back to content – which is also a contender for power in the state.

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 10 Need To Review The Constitution - RNP Singh

fter over sixty years of administration has reduced and Parliamentary democracy limited the sovereignty of the A in India, people have people to a mere right to exercise started losing faith in it as it has their franchise at elections. become synonymous with elections Gloomy, harsh, unimaginative and only. The victim of democracy is indifferent administration has the politics. If in India, people are affected the poor to their core. asked to vote for an institution Corruption, inefficiency and that has maintained some level of insensitivity, particularly in the integrity – they would vote for the distribution of goods have given Supreme Court, Election rise to extra-legal systems. The Commission or to the Comptroller people in India today stand more and Auditor General of India. divided amongst themselves than Their last preference would be at the time of the country’s either Parliament or State independence. Common national Assemblies. In the parliamentary purpose is seldom seen pursued by democracy till the leaders become the national political parties and responsible, conscious of their noble purposes of public life have duties and responsive to the public degenerated into opportunistic opinion, democracy itself will not and self seeking politics of be stable. If they start ignoring the competitive personal gains. will of the people, the government will become dictatorial. In India, Corruption, it seems, has been politicians are looked upon with legalized, particularly in political disdain. There is reason for this. life. Electoral reforms and Politicians whom people elect with reforming of the political parties much fanfare tend to become the and their internal democracy are arbiters and abusers of power. essential parts of reform.The politician- bureaucrat nexus have The realization of social and eroded administrative credibility. economic justice, as promised by Unprincipled, opportunistic the Constitution still remains a political re-alignments and dream, and the system of defections and re-defections * RNP Singh - Senior Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 11 minimize the scope of the stability discharge their civic duty honestly. of the governments. The The alarming increase of violence instability of the governments and money influence in the gave rise to maladministration electoral process is a matter of which has paralyzed the creative grave concern which threatens the energies of the people. The very survival of the democratic opportunistic and self seeking system. Besides the frustration politics and politicians and an from political and administrative increasing scenario of politician, side, there has been a picture of criminal and the bureaucratic near collapse of the judicial trial nexus has resulted into enormous system. The delays and mounting corruption in electoral, political costs of the cases have kept the and bureaucratic general people spheres. There is away from justice, There has been increasing pervasive thereby causing disillusionment about the degeneration of frustration and fairness of electoral process. values. blocking of their Corruption and criminalization aspirations. The has over-shadowed its In view of the percentage of cases processes. The enormity of the prevailing that go through the costs of elections has kept the atmosphere, the whole processes in suitable persons away from foremost courts is quite this exercise and has led to the requirement is the large which restoration of degradation of political processes to detriment of urgently need confidence in the exploration of some common good. institutions of other means. democracy. This needs strong and enlightened There has been increasing leadership to address the disillusionment about the fairness emergent problems of divergent of electoral process. Corruption nature dealing with the and criminalization has over- aspirations of the people and shadowed its processes. The requirements of the country. enormity of the costs of elections Besides the politicians, has kept the suitable persons bureaucrats and criminals, the away from this exercise and has voters are also responsible, to led to the degradation of political some extent, for the prevailing processes to detriment of common situation because they do not good. Political parties collect

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 12 enormous funds from criminals Kamath had said “Now, what is and capitalists for meeting state for? The utility of state has electoral expenditure, thereby to be judged from its effect on the causing pervasive degeneration of common man’s welfare. The standards in public life. This is ultimate conflict that has to be also reflected in the quality of resolved is this: Whether the governments and of the governing individual is for the state or the process. state is for the individual”.

The above mentioned systematic Carrying forward the debate and constitutional failures were Naziruddin Ahmad (West Bengal) foreseen by some members of the had commented “Coming to the Constituent Assembly and they Directive Principles of the State had raised their doubts in the policy, articles 28 to 48, I think discussion of the Constituent that these are pious expressions. Assembly. Damodar Swaroop They have no binding force. These Seth, a member of the CA had cannot be enforced in a court of raised similar views in the law and really, as the Honourable discussion held on 5th November the Law Minister himself candidly 1948. He had said “this admitted they are pious Constitution as a whole, instead of superfluities. That is the being evolved from our life and criticism.” reared from the bottom upwards is being imported from outside and Even after over sixty years of built from above downwards. A independence the country is still Constitution which is not based on reeling under the heat of minority units and in the making of which and reservation. While they have no voice, in which there participating in debate in is not even a mention of thousands Constituent Assembly Krishna and lakhs of villages of India and Chandra Sharma (United in framing which they have had no Province: General) had said” I do hand, well you can give such a not think our minorities are Constitution to the Country but I minorities in the real sense of the very much doubt whether you of term or classes or groups would be able to keep it long”. accepted by the League of Nations. We all lived in this Country for Participating in the debate on the centuries, for thousands of years. same day (5th November, 1948) HV We have imbibed a common

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 13 culture, a common way of living, During six decades the country common way of thinking. Thus, I has grown from 10 states to 28 do not understand the meaning of states with seven Union giving these special privileges in Territories. The population has chapter XIV. It creates statutory grown from 36 crores to 1.2 billion; minorities and to say that the it has become sixth largest thing will last for ten years only is economy in the world; the literacy to forget the lesson of the rate has grown; and the country is past……But the result was the today a nuclear power. Inspite of partition of the Country”. He this progress, country's track suggested” if there record to fight are any safeguards against poverty, or any During six decades the country illiteracy and encouragement has grown from 10 states to 28 corruption are necessary for the states with seven Union shockingly by backward classes Territories. The population has below the poverty or certain other grown from 36 crores to 1.2 line. The largest classes, there billion; it has become sixth democracy in the might be other largest economy in the world; world has moved in means namely, the literacy rate has grown; the direction of giving scholarship and the country is today a instability and to deserving nuclear power. Inspite of this crisis of students, giving progress, country's track governability. The other financial record to fight against poverty, gradual decline in help, opening illiteracy and corruption are value system, institutions and shockingly by below the erosion in political other facilities poverty line. order and a which are deepening of social necessary for their amelioration and economic crisis have brought and lifting up; but to perpetuate the Indian political system to cross division in body politic, to roads. Now the time is ripe for the perpetuate division in the nation, people and its leaders to take a would be detrimental to the decision about the future course of healthy growth of the nation and action. would do an incalculable harm to us and our prosperity”. It is no denying a fact that despite all those shortcomings, the people of India have reposed their faith in

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 14 the democratic process, they translate noble principles into maintained the democratic practical instruments? Its glaring system. But democracy gets strong inadequacy is seen in the roots where its plantation dispensation of justice, protection proceeds from social to economic of basic liberties enforcement of and then to political. In India, bureaucratic accountability and instead of social democracy taking appointments of constitutional strong roots ahead, the economic functionaries. and political democracy arrived earlier. As long as equality and The nature of the Constitution of social justice are India is not Indian. The Constitutions not visibly present, The need for Constitutional of USA and Britain only voting rights review has been a topic widely has been copied. can not bring about debated across the Country. change in the The founding fathers of the Some articles have profile of a society Indian Constitution who been borrowed which was under granted more rights to the from the alien control for people without balancing them Constitutions of centuries. with their duties, perhaps did Ireland, Australia not foresee the emergence of and Canada st Today, in the 21 present political environment, besides being Century can we say wherein the political players of dependent upon that the real power the various segments in the the Government of to govern this country are more interested in India Act 1935. country is vested in fulfilling their individual Thus, the very its people? Often aspirations than the nature of the question arises aspirations of the people. Indian that does the Constitution is a Constitution in slavish imitation of true terms express the will of the the Constitution of these people or it has just become a tool Countries. Due to the mismatch in in the hands of some hungry the nature of the Constitution, it politicians? Are the people of India has been amended more than 110 in real terms assured of justice, times during last sixty years. On liberty, equality and fraternity? Is the other hand when we see the the common man receiving justice? Constitution of United States Does equality really prevail? Has which was presented on 17th the Constitution not failed to September 1787 with only eleven

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 15 articles has so far, been amended fourth General Election there was only twenty seven times. This wide spread concern over the comparison speaks volume of the phenomenon of unprincipled mismatch of the Constitution with defections. The problem came up the Indian condition. for discussion in the Lok Sabha on 8 December in 1967. The The need for Constitutional review Parliament adopted a resolution has been a topic widely debated which said” The House is of across the Country. The founding opinion that a high level fathers of the Indian Constitution committee consisting of who granted more rights to the representatives of political parties people without balancing them and Constitutional experts be with their duties, perhaps did not setup immediately by Government foresee the emergence of present to consider the problem of political environment, wherein the legislators changing their political players of the various allegiance from one party to segments in the country are more another and their frequent interested in fulfilling their crossing of the floor in all its individual aspirations than the aspects, and make aspirations of the people. The recommendations in this regard”. debate to review the Constitution Following Parliament resolution, started right from the first decade Y B Chavan (Home Minister) of the enforcement Constitution committee was formed which and within two years of its coming addressed variety of issues into force, it was required to be including the problem of amended vide first amendment defections. Bill 1951. Subsequently the Congress During the period from 1950 to president D. K Barooah appointed 1967, the Parliament and most of a committee on 26 Feb 1976 to the state assemblies were under study the question of amendment the rule of the Congress Party. of the Constitution. The 12 But after 1967 non-congress member committee headed by coalitions took over the reign of Sardar Swarn Singh submitted its power in several northern states. report to the Congress President During this period several issues in April 1976. The committee in its pertaining to union-state relations recommendation touched upon cropped up. In the period following wide range of issues including the

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 16 Preamble, Directive Principles, In 1983, a committee was Power of Parliament to amend constituted under the Constitution, Election matters, chairmanship of justice R S disqualification of membership of Sarkaria with fairly wide ranging House or State legislature etc. terms of reference.

On 27- October 1976 the 42nd The NDA in its National Agenda Amendment Bill was presented in for Governance issued as its the Lok Sabha. The Prime Election Manifesto had pledged to Minister Mrs. in appoint a commission to review her speech said that the purpose of the Constitution. The pledge was the Bill was “To remedy the affirmed in the President’s address anomalies that have long been to the Parliament on 22 February noticed and to overcome obstacles 2000. Accordingly on 23rd put up by economic and political February 2000 the President of vested interest”. She said “the Bill India appointed II- member was responsive to the aspirations Commission headed by Justice M of the people and reflects the N Venkatachaliah, Former Chief realities of the present time and Justice of India. The Commission the future”. The Bill was passed in was named as “The National the Lok Sabha with 4 against it Commission to review the working and 366 in favour and in Rajya of the Constitution“. The terms of Sabha passed by 190 Votes in its reference of the Commission favour and none against it. The stated - The commission shall amendment led to imposition of examine, in the light of the Emergency in the country which is experiences of the past 50 years, a dark period of the Indian as to how best the Constitution democracy. can respond to the changing needs of efficient, smooth and effective After change of the Government in system of governance and socio- 1977, the then Prime Minster economic development of modern Morarji Desai appointed a India within the framework of committee of the Members of Parliamentary democracy and to Parliament and subsequently set recommend changes, if any, that up a sub-committee of the cabinet are required in the provisions of mainly to correct imbalance in the the Constitution without Constitution caused by some interfering with its basic structure provisions of the 42nd amendment. or features.” The Drafting and

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 17 Editorial Committee of the Pandit while commission submitted the speaking on the Draft Constitution complete Draft Report to the on November 8, 1948 said “The chairperson on 15 February, 2002. Constitution is after all some kind It is not known as to what action of legal body given to the ways of was taken thereafter. Government and the life of the people. A Constitution if it is out of During last two decades there touch with the people’s life, aims have been persistent demands and aspirations becomes rather from the civil society, some NGOs, empty, if it falls behind those academics, Constitutional scholars aims, it drags the people down. It and others to have a should be something ahead to keep comprehensive review of the people’s eyes and Constitution. It is now high time that minds made up to a Several books and instead of amending one clause certain high large number of or the other of the mark... Remember articles and Constitution, we must gather this that while we research papers are courage to review the want this published, and suitability of this Constitution Constitution to be numbers of to the people, culture and civilisation of this country. It as solid and as seminars have must be emphasised that a permanent a been organized on Constitution of the country has structure as we can this topic. There is to be deeply rooted to the make it... there a general feeling cultural and civilisational should be certain that a review of the ethos of the country. flexibility. If you Constitution will make anything have a positive impact on the rigid and permanent you stop a system which will neutralize the nation’s growth, the growth of a hurdles in governance. A living, vital, organic people”. Constitution is meant to facilitate Pandit Nehru reiterated this view the working of the government over and over again on different and administration and also to occasions. guide other structures of the country. The static form of the It is now high time that instead of Constitution will not be able to amending one clause or the other meet the challenges of the of the Constitution, we must situations and requirement of the gather courage to review the changing world. suitability of this Constitution to

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 18 the people, culture and civilisation emphasised that a Constitution of of this country. It must be the country has to be deeply rooted to the cultural and civilisational ethos of the country.

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VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 19 Trusteeship And Trust - Dr. M.N. Buch

n any democratic society there adequate provisions for dealing is a social compact to which with any present or future I every member of society is a emergency, contingency, signatory and which is binding on breakdown of the constitutional everyone because it contains the arrangement of government and social order which will govern that for dealing with any unknown society. The opposite of a social kind of situation which has to be compact is anarchy and the rule of dealt with urgently. In many ways the jungle. In India the social this is one of the most compact is contained in the comprehensive social compacts Constitution, which lays down ever drafted and for the last sixty- what the nation stands for in clear two years it has withstood the terms in the Preamble, it stress and tension of war, national enshrines the principle of equality emergency, changing political of all, specially before the law, it scenarios and combinations, gives the fundamental rights of judicial crises, public agitations citizens and their fundamental and even movements which are duties, it gives a policy framework aimed at breaking the Indian to the State for the establishment Union. From every crisis we have of a just social order in the chapter emerged stronger, thanks largely on the Directive Principles of State to the Constitution. Policy and it provides for the institutional arrangement of the One of the strengths of the Indian State into the Executive, the Constitution that it creates a Legislature and the Judiciary. The trusteeship in which those who are Constitution also ensures that the placed in a position of authority structure of the Indian State will are there as trustees of the Indian be federal with a strong nation, whose owners are the centripetal bias to hold the nation people of India collectively. A together, it divides the powers person who is in authority is, to between the Federal and State quote the Chambers Twenty-first Legislatures and it also contains Century Dictionary “in the state of being responsible for the * Dr. M.N. Buch - Visiting Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 20 conscientious performance of some Judiciary. The sum total of task”. Because conscientious governance, therefore, is the performance is the hallmark of function of the individual trusteeship accountability for such members or authorities within performance is also a part of these three pillars of the State and trusteeship. The people of India harmony is ensured only if each of are the trustees in the matter of the actors performs his functions exercising their franchise and conscientiously and in a deciding to whom the reins of responsible manner. There is a power will be handed over. To this Head of State, the President extent the very nationally and the people who are the Governor in each owners of this One of the strengths of the State. This nation are also Indian Constitution that it functionary is collectively the creates a trusteeship in which entrusted with the trustees and must those who are placed in a job of ensuring that exercise their position of authority are there the government of franchise in as trustees of the Indian the country and of discharge of their nation, whose owners are the the state conducts responsibility. people of India collectively. A itself in accordance Failure to vote is a person who is in authority is, with the betrayal of the to quote the Chambers Constitution and trust reposed in the Twenty-first Century the law, which the citizen by the Dictionary “in the state of Head of the State is Constitution as the being responsible for the bound by solemn arbiters of the conscientious performance of oath to preserve, question of who some task”. protect and defend. will govern the The President or a state, the city or the village. Governor who forgets his oath and acts on the advice of his Council of Whereas deciding who will govern Ministers to do something which is a collective responsibility, goes against the letter and the governance cannot be done spirit of the Constitution, has collectively but has to be done by failed to live up to the persons empowered to govern. In responsibilities of trusteeship. the matter of governance there are This is a very delicate area and three equal wings of the State, the one must tread carefully because Executive, the Legislature and the the Constitution itself in Articles

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 21 74 and 163 requires the President was not satisfied that such a grave or the Governor, as the case may emergency existed which be, to act in accordance with the jeopardised the security of India aid and advice of the Council of either by war, external aggression Ministers. However, if the Council or armed rebellion (then ‘internal of Ministers advises the President disturbance’), perhaps there would or Governor to do something which have been no declaration of is clearly in conflict with the emergency and our democracy Constitution, it is the duty of the would have taken a very different Head of the State path in which to advise the Prime politics would not Minister or Chief The concept of trusteeship have been vitiated Minister about the applies at all levels. The Prime as it was post 1975. constitutional Minister is a trustee, his impropriety of Council of Ministers is both The concept of what has been collectively and individually in trusteeship applies proposed and to try a position of trusteeship, the at all levels. The and deter him from Supreme Court of India is a Prime Minister is a following an trustee in all matters judicial trustee, his Council unconstitutional and every civil servant is a of Ministers is both path. Where the trustee because he is assigned collectively and advice is patently a task and must individually in a unconstitutional, conscientiously perform it. position of for example telling Both Parliament and the State trusteeship, the the President to Legislatures are placed in a Supreme Court of ignore an order of position of trusteeship because India is a trustee in court, the people have elected their all matters judicial President or representatives and sent them and every civil Governor, must servant is a trustee make it clear that this runs because he is assigned a task and contrary to his oath of office and must conscientiously perform it. he will not go along with the Both Parliament and the State advice of the Council of Ministers. Legislatures are placed in a Had Fakruddin Ali Ahmed at least position of trusteeship because advised Mrs. Indira Gandhi to people have elected their reconsider the proclamation of representatives and sent them to emergency under Article 352 in the Legislature to perform their 1975 and had he told her that he legislative functions with honesty

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 22 and a desire to further the public realised that they could command good. Defection by taking bribes, a price to put people in positions of pulling down governments because power. The scheme of the whims and fancies are not catered, Constitution is that at the time of for interfering in executive general elections the voter will functions whilst neglecting the have a choice between parties and legislative ones are all betrayal of between candidates and will select trust and, therefore, of the party or the candidate who, in trusteeship. From Prime Minister the opinion of the voter, will give to chaparasi, from Chief of Army the best government. This choice Staff down to the last sepoy, all could be dictated by party ideology are trustees and none more so or by the character of the than those in whose hands the candidate. The person so elected reins of power are given. If the was expected to live by the trustees discharge their functions promises that he had given at the with integrity and diligence the time of election and to promote the social compact will live and be ideology which had the backing of strengthened, the people, which is why he was elected. Breaking away from the What happens when there is party through defection, failure in discharge of trusteeship? abandoning the ideology or the Let us begin at the top and go programme on which he was back to what I consider a post elected, taking a bribe in order to independence watershed year, defect and helping to bring to 1967. This is a year in which a power a group which was not spate of defections took place, favoured as the majority during engineered by bribes, for the the poll all amount to a betrayal of purpose of bringing down the duly trust and of trusteeship. The elected government and Tenth Schedule of the substitutes it by a government Constitution framed under consisting of a splinter group Articles 102 (2) and 191 (2) was supported by defectors. Madhya designed to stop defections, but Pradesh and Haryana were the because it is flawed in drafting lead actors in this drama, but and substance and is only other States followed suit. Once selectively applied it has failed to defections were engineered it gave stop defections. Every Member of the members of the legislature a Parliament or State Legislature feeling of power in which they who deviates from the platform on

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 23 which he was elected betrays his makes corruption a penal offence trusteeship and has no business to and a Minister cannot be a be in the august House. Ideally he criminal and continue to be a should be dismissed and even Minister. Corruption, therefore, is denied his franchise, but because a direct violation of the oath of we do not live in an ideal world office and the Prevention of such a person should be removed Corruption Act apart, the Minister from the Legislature and debarred is liable to instantaneous from standing for election for at dismissal on any hint of least six years. corruption. The discharge of trusteeship here by a Minister Every Minister, in means that he will effect, has one leg be personally in the Legislature Every Minister, in effect, has honest, he will and the other in one leg in the Legislature and render to the the Executive. He the other in the Executive. He President or the is required to is required to swear an oath at Governor advice swear an oath at the time of taking office in which in his the time of taking which he is required to uphold judgement is office in which he is the sovereignty and integrity appropriate and required to uphold of India, faithfully and best designed to the sovereignty and conscientiously discharge his further the welfare integrity of India, duties as a Minister and do of the people, faithfully and right to all manner of people in scrupulously follow conscientiously accordance with the the Rules of discharge his Constitution and the law. Business framed duties as a under Articles 77 Minister and do right to all and 166 of the Constitution, listen manner of people in accordance to the advice rendered by the civil with the Constitution and the law. servants but take firm decisions in The Constitution prohibits the which the programme and policies arbitrary exercise of authority. of the party he represents may be Conscientious and faithful reflected but which apply discharge of duties automatically evenhandedly to all people implies that the Minister will be regardless of political affiliations. honest both intellectually and The Minister will discharge his financially. In any case the responsibility to the Legislature Prevention of Corruption Act for the manner his department

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 24 functions, while emphasising to of the government is concerned, the civil servants that effective this is done as per the rules and prompt implementation of framed under Articles 77 and 166, government policy is their which distribute work amongst responsibility and will be insisted different ministries and upon. If the Minister is personally departments, lay down the powers honest, does his duty and functions of the ministers and conscientiously, suitably guides also state how Secretaries to and leads his civil servants and Government are to function and discharges his responsibility what powers they will exercise. towards the Legislature there When we read this in the context would be no corruption in of Part XIV of the Constitution, government and deliverance of that is, Articles 308 to 314 (Article government services to the people 314 now repealed) one would find would be efficient and smooth. In that this is the only Constitution other words, if the Minister in the world which has carved a discharges his trusteeship niche for the Civil Services, honestly corruption will be rooted prescribed their powers and out and there will be no need for a functions, ensured that there is no Lokpal. nepotism in the appointment of civil servants and given them What applies to ministers and special protection under Article legislators applies equally and, 311. What is more, under Article perhaps, more forcefully to the 312 All India Services are created civil servants, including the police. which hold senior posts in both the Articles 53 and 154 of the Union and the State Governments, Constitution vest the executive but whose appointing authority is power of the Union in the the President and the ultimate President and of the State in the cadre controlling authority is the Governor and this power is to be Central Government. In other exercised through officers words, a trusteeship is created in subordinate to the President or which the Civil Services are also the Governor. In the exercise of partners. Civil servants, therefore, his power the President or the have a very special role to play in Governor will act strictly which they are required to render according to the aid and advice of advice to ministers which is well- his Council of Ministers, but so far informed, properly researched, as actual conduct of the business impartial, fearless and objective.

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 25 Thereafter every lawful order of a failure or shortcoming. From the minister has to be faithfully highest to the lowest in the Civil implemented by the civil servant Service hierarchy this interlocking concerned, but evenhandedly so accountability must prevail. That that there is no complaint of bias. is how the responsibilities of trusteeship are discharged. During implementation the civil servant has to ensure efficiency, If there is trusteeship then there total integrity and an attitude of has to be trust in those who are sympathy with the persons who the trustees. Governance is are affected by the implementation basically a function of taking of policy. Because ultimately the decisions, implementing them and citizen is supreme, the civil standing by one’s actions. Where servant must be acutely sensitive there are mala fides wrong to how people react and, where decisions will deliberately be necessary, he must go back to the taken and such decisions naturally minister and apprise him of what constitute what is called is happening during corruption. Mala fide is what leads implementation. If midcourse to corrupt practices. A trustee who corrections are needed he should takes mala fide decisions has to so advise and then take necessary suffer the consequences of his steps to make such corrections. wrongdoing and for him there can be no mercy. However, all The civil servant has another decisions are not mala fide. In fact equally important role to play, the majority of decisions are either which is to ensure that his bona fide or taken without due subordinates perform their diligence and, therefore, wrong but functions properly and call them not mala fide. Decisions in to account when they are at fault. framing policy and decisions He, in turn, has to discharge his during implementation can, with accountability to his own the best of intentions, be proved on superiors, thus establishing a hindsight to be either wrong or not chain of interlocking the best option which could have accountability in which at each been adopted. However, the level the civil servant concerned decision maker has to take a view knows his duties and in the context of what is here and responsibilities, acts accordingly now because no one has the gift of and then is held to account for any advanced hindsight. The

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 26 circumstances may be such that a beneficial because it gave quality second or third best option has to work within the prescribed time be adopted because the best is limit. What we need to build into either not available or cannot give the system is trust for the officer the desired results at a particular taking the decision, judging him in moment of time. Let me elaborate. the context of when the decision There is a limited time frame in was taken and not applying which a particular work has to be hindsight and arriving at a wrong completed. The contractor who judgement on the officer gives the lowest bid may not be concerned. the person who is fast enough to complete the work in time. The Moving away from contracts, in next lowest bidder may have the the course of a day an officer may speed but is not known for the have to face different quality of his work. The third contingencies and situations, each lowest bidder may have both the of which calls for an speed and the quality. Supposing administrative decision. If the the decision maker opts for the officer knows that he would be third contractor. The work will rewarded for quick decision- cost a little more, but it will be making and punished for undue completed in time and will be of delay he will not hesitate in the requisite quality. If the case if deciding. If, on the other hand, he reviewed a few years later an feels that any decision he takes objection could be raised that the will be subjected to entertainment work was not completed as of complaints and ex post facto economically as would be done by enquiry which would cause him the lowest bidder. What would be harassment, that officer may take forgotten or not properly the path of pushing files around appreciated is the urgency of the but ensuring that no matter comes work felt at the time that it was to a stage of finality. If he takes no undertaken. If the time schedule decision, if there is no action, then factor is removed then the officer there is nothing which could be could be indicted for accepting the inquired into because nothing has third lowest tender. That is what actually happened. The officer generally happens now. There may save his own skin, but were only bona fides in the case imagine the fate of citizens who and the concerned officer actually are dependent upon quick disposal took a decision which was of a case. Should we not give

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 27 protection to a civil servant so that that because weapon purchases his decisiveness benefits people at are of the magnitude of thousands large? Our armed forces do face of crores of rupees, the vendor who real enemies with whom right does not get an order will try and from independence we have been delay the purchase, even abort it, in a state of active belligerency, if if his rival is likely to get the not actual war. The armed forces order. That is why complaints of need the weaponry and the corruption are floated and this preparedness level which could causes the government, which is enable them to neutralise any still in a post Bofors trauma, to threat. The Navy needs surface immediately put and underwater things on hold. fighting vessels, The guidelines of purchase The Chiefs of our the Army needs must be laid down by armed forces have guns for the government in very clear terms reached the apex of artillery and the and the concerned Chief must their career after a Air Force needs constitute a purchase aircraft which are committee in which there long period of weapons of war. would be representation from service in which at The process of the Defence Ministry and the every stage their procuring these Finance Ministry also. This suitability for the weapons is committee should be fully next higher prolonged over empowered to finalise the deal command is tested. years, sometimes and the Chief concerned should If we cannot trust for so long that the be authorised to issue a the three Chiefs proposed weapon ‘sanction of purchase’ order. why were they ever system becomes selected for the obsolete before it is post? It is purchased. This is a prime submitted that the three Services example of paralysis of decision have to convince government both making because we just cannot about the need of a weapon system decide lest there be complaints of and the preference for a particular corruption. Meanwhile the armed system based on rigorous field forces remain without these trials. If government is convinced weapons and are vulnerable to then it must authorise the enemy attack. This is because we purchase and make the entire trust no one to be honest in budgetary allocation available to purchasing weapons. We forget the Service concerned. The

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 28 guidelines of purchase must be Trusteeship demands trust laid down by government in very because trusteeship is an enabling clear terms and the concerned environment in which the benefits Chief must constitute a purchase of governance can be delivered to committee in which there would be the people. The process of decision representation from the Defence making from the lowest to the Ministry and the Finance Ministry highest level must be open and also. This committee should be transparent, but it must not brook fully empowered to finalise the delay. Trust must be reposed on deal and the Chief concerned the functionaries who are required should be authorised to issue a to take decisions, bona fides ‘sanction of purchase’ order. If should be presumed and provided delay is controlled not only would that every order, every decision is the armed forces get the weapons backed up by recorded reasons for they need but possible corruption taking it, then no further obviated because there would be questions should be asked. Those no delay. Thereafter if complaints who commit a breach of trust must are received there should be a be virtually obliterated, but the preliminary enquiry, without rest must be protected. Where stopping the flow of equipment there is no criminality and only if the enquiry indicates investigating agencies which have mala fides or criminal conspiracy coercive powers should not be should action be taken. Otherwise given entry. If we want good the complaints should be thrown government then we cannot have into the nearest waste paper the kind of witch-hunting which basket. Anna Hazare has suggested and his followers fine-tuned.

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VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 29 Indian Maoists: The Extent Of Their External Linkages - Dr. N. Manoharan

t is untrue to consider Left- section/group/persons from enemy wing Extremism as purely classes) using the contradictions I local and self-sustaining. The among the enemy. [Maoist] Party extent of external linkages of the has to do that. This scope is there Indian Maoists is vast. The actors to some extent on some issues. We with which Naxals have linkages call it the indirect reserves of the include Maoists of Nepal, militant revolution which can be used groups operating in the northeast carefully. If we have clear India, anti-Indian actors – state understanding that they are not and non-state – based in Pakistan, our class allies, then we would not and umbrella organisations at have right opportunist deviations. regional and global levels. The We need united fronts of this kind motives for the linkages are wide- for the success of the revolution. ranging: to procure different varieties of arms, obtain training The Indian Maoists have of late assistance, strengthen finances, been found more than suitable for trade drugs, ideological affinities, its agenda by the Inter-Services and to forge a broad front against Intelligence (ISI), in its attempts the “common enemy” – India – in to rope-in India-based militant achieving the overall objective of groups. The overall intention of capturing state power. the ISI is to give an impression to Contextualising and justifying the outside world that all terror external linkages within the attacks in India are home-grown. Maoist thought, the Naxals hold Indo-Nepal and Indo-Bangladesh that borders are used extensively by the Pakistan-based Islamic groups There are two different kinds of as transit routes to reach out to United Fronts. One, between Naxals. At the same time, Naxals people, and the other between are somewhat cautious in their people and enemy (a liaison with jihadist groups

* Dr. N. Manoharan - Senior Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 30 because of long-term production for pharmaceutical consequences. Therefore, the preparations, India is also Naxal leadership is said to be in sandwiched between ‘Golden favour of “specific and need-based Crescent’ and ‘Golden Triangle’, exchanges’’ with these groups that the two major drug producing and could be restricted to trafficking regions of the world. “consequential solidarity”. The This geo-economic factor has not Maoists are aware of the fact that only helped Maoists to collect if the LeT-Maoists alliance is protection money from drug comprehensive and deep, it would cultivators, traders and be easier for the Indian state to traffickers, but also to involve club LWE also under anti- themselves directly in drug- terrorism and respond accordingly. trafficking. This is evident in Naxals would not wish such a seizure of large contrabands of state response that could be more marijuana that was being brought ruthless than the present “holistic” from states and specifically areas one. At the end of the day, ideology which are Naxal-infested. They and objectives of these groups are are the latest entrants in this quite different. However, even trade to fund their activities. limited cooperation is a cause for Drugs like marijuana from Naxal concern, as Naxals are desperately areas are found for street sale looking outwards to enhance their even in remote areas of southern military potential vis-à-vis the states like Kerala. The marijuana Indian state’s ongoing military cultivated in the Naxalite- push. dominated forests bordering Orissa and Andhra Pradesh Naxal dominated areas are not (called “Sheelavathi” in local only rich in minerals, but also name) is said to have higher popular drug cultivating tracts tetrahydrocannabinol content, a (cannabis and poppy in particular) psychoactive compound, than that in the states of Madhya Pradesh, of locally produced drugs (called Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, locally as “Neelachadayan”). These Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa and drugs are peddled by Naxal-linked Andhra Pradesh. Apart from being middlemen in large quantities by world's largest producer of licit rail and road, including on buses opium and the only authorised conducting inter-State services. user of the gum method of opium

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 31 Despite in ceasefire mode and Till recently, Naxals had working under UN monitoring, the Nepali relations with the Liberation Maoists have been extending “full Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) support and cooperation” to their especially on training. When the counterparts of India not only on LTTE was active and fighting for ideological basis but also for arms Eelam in the northeast of Sri procurement, drugs trade, training Lanka, it regularly supplied arms and resource mobilisation. The and ammunition to Naxal groups Maoists on both sides of borders delivered mostly at the coasts of have also formed the Indo-Nepal Andhra Pradesh. Naxals came to Border Region know of the LTTE Committee to through the Tamil coordinate their Despite in ceasefire mode and Nadu Communist activities in North under UN monitoring, the Party-Marxist- Bihar and along Nepali Maoists have been Leninist (TNCP- the India-Nepal extending “full support and ML) that was cooperation” to their border. Porous formed in 1984-85 counterparts of India not only open border after a split on ideological basis but also for between India and between arms procurement, drugs Nepal has Communist Party trade, training and resource facilitated smooth of India – Marxist mobilisation. The Maoists on coordination Leninist (CPI-ML) both sides of borders have also between the and its Tamil Nadu formed the Indo-Nepal Border groups. The unit. Region Committee to People’s Liberation coordinate their activities in Army, the military The Indian Maoists North Bihar and along the wing of the have good network India-Nepal border. Communist Party with several key of Nepal (Maoists), has been militant groups of involved in providing military the northeast India. In fact, with training and bomb making to some groups, the exact modalities sections of Naxalites. The of working – formal, semi-formal Lashkar-e-Toiba operatives are and informal – are spelled out also said to be involved in the through “memoranda of training, especially in the use of understanding”. The Naxals get IEDs, in Maoists-run camps of arms and training from the Nepal. northeast militant groups like National Socialist Council of

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 32 Nagaland (NSCN-IM), United have good access to militant Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), groups of Myanmar. There are People’s Liberation Army (PLA), also attempts by the Naxals to set People’s Revolutionary Party of up support bases in tea garden Kangleipak (Prepak), areas in upper Assam and some of Revolutionary People’s Front the tribal areas in the hilly (RPF), Kamtapur Liberation interiors. Presently, the Krishak Organisation (KLO), Gorkha Mukti Sangram Samiti of Assam Liberation Tiger Force (GLTF), is working as a front of Maoists in Gurkha Liberation Organisation Assam. (GLO), Adibasi National According to Maoists “it is According to important for the success of Maoists “it is Liberation Army the Indian revolution as an and National inseparable part of great world important for the Democratic Front socialist revolution to actively success of the of Bodoland defend Maoism, fight Indian revolution (NDFB). Chinese imperialism and support the as an inseparable small arms find class struggle throughout the part of great world world and also take the socialist revolution their way to the support of the International ‘Red Corridor’ MaoistParties/Organizations/ to actively defend mainly through the Forces, proletariat and people.” Maoism, fight northeast militant It is for this purpose they imperialism and groups. The mutual maintain fraternal relations support the class support between with Maoist and “anti- struggle imperialist forces” through throughout the Naxals and several umbrella organisations northeast militant that exist at regional and world and also take groups is not just global levels. the support of the restricted to International material, but Maoist extends to moral aspects as well. Parties/Organizations/Forces, While Naxals have strongly proletariat and people.” It is for supported “people’s movements” of this purpose they maintain the northeast, the northeast fraternal relations with Maoist militant groups have stood by and “anti-imperialist forces” “revolutionaries”. “Enemy’s enemy through several umbrella is a friend” is the guiding maxim organisations that exist at in this case as well. It is through regional and global levels. the northeast groups the Maoists

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 33 Prominent among them is Conferences are held from time-to- CCOMPOSA (Coordination time to take stock of the situation Committee of Maoist Parties and and plan responses. So far, only Organisations of South Asia), five such conferences have been formed in July 2001, with a held since the formation of the purpose to unify and coordinate body – once in two years on an the activities of “genuine” Maoist average. However, CCOMPOSA parties and organisations in South received a setback with the Nepali Asia. The present constituent Maoists joining political parties of CCOMPOSA are, apart mainstream renouncing violence. from CPI (Maoists), Purbo Banglar Movement (Bangladesh), At the global level, FOIR is an Communist Party of Ceylon (Sri important umbrella organisation Lanka), United Communist Party whose representatives abroad seek of Nepal (Maoist), Poorba to raise finances in several Bangladesh Sarvahara Party (CC), countries, especially that of the Communist Party of East Bengal West, for the “cause” of the Indian (ML), Red Flag Communist Party “revolution”. Then there are bodies of Bhutan(MLM), Communist like International Conference of Party of India (MLM), and Marxist-Leninist Parties and Communist Party of India (ML) Organisations (ICMLPO), (Naxalbari). The CCOMPOSA Revolutionary Internationalist members have agreed to share Movement (RIM), World People’s each others’ experiences and Resistance Movement (WPRM) strengthen one another in and International Communist “fighting back the enemies in the Movement (ICM) that link LWE respective countries” and “making groups located all over the world South Asia a blazing center of stretching from Peru in the West world revolution.” The aim of the to Philippines in the East. They organisation was identified to sustain fraternal ties and jointly “develop mass movements against conduct programmes that are the common enemy, i.e. Indian mutually beneficial. This does not Expansionism, the world mean that the Maoists are imperialist system, particularly unanimous in their opinion on US imperialism, the No. 1 enemy linkages with international of the world people; and to communist movements. For overthrow the existing system in instance, before the merger of the countries of South Asia.” Maoists Communist Center (MCC)

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 34 and People’s War Group (PWG) to RIM as per the decision of the new form CPI (Maoists), the MCC had Party. The RIM went out of action joined RIM in 2002, but the PWG anyway. opposed the idea. After the merger, the MCC pulled out of

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VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 35 Analysing India’s Budget For 2012-13 - Dr. V. Anantha Nageswaran

ndia’s budget deficit is government service on 16 March. hardcoded into its left-liberal He promised to cut the deficit from I intellectual discourse. Most 5.9% of GDP (estimated for the intelligent Indians comfortably year ending March 2012) to straddle the views that around 5.1% of GDP. The fact that government is corrupt, venal and the government had projected a inefficient and that more deficit of 4.6% of GDP for 2011-12 government spending is the (versus 4.9% in 2010-11) puts both answer to all development issues. the revised estimate and the This is convenient fodder for target for 2012-13 in perspective. politicians who see themselves, for The government’s budget the most part, as feudal overlords. framework document conceded Launching government projects that much of the deficit reduction named after politicians (preferably is sought to be achieved through family members) of yesteryears revenue mobilisation. Naturally, inflates their ego and sense of that raises questions on the power. There will not be an end to impact on private sector profits, this unless the public discourse on investment and growth, ironically government spending undergoes a feeding back into lower tax total transformation of emphasis revenues. from entitlement to empowerment. That might well be a long wait. More worryingly, more discretion is being given to the taxman. In the meantime, the humdrum Where there is bureaucratic and the painstaking task of discretion, there is corruption and managing the deficit and the there is harassment. This is true media fall on the hapless Finance worldwide and nowhere more so Ministers in the Indian than in India. While the near government. Mr. Pranab restoration of the peak excise duty Mukherjee, the current Finance to pre-crisis levels and the hike in Minister, is a veteran. He the service tax rate along with a presented his seventh budget in negative list of services are his long and distinguished reasonable revenue generating

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 36 measures, retrospective means to cut the deficit. India’s amendment of tax laws is not. government expenditure, even if Even if they are not used, they well-intended in most cases, is send a worrying signal to honest largely wasteful and lines taxpayers and to foreign investors. individual pockets more than it serves the targeted beneficiaries. Further, in the few days that have Hence, the failure to take the axe passed since the budget was to government expenditure is not presented to the Parliament, just disappointing but deeply worrying details have emerged on worrying. how some of the measures might be Further, in the few days that The big elephant in wholly have passed since the budget the room of budget counterproductive, was presented to the deficit is the even if unintended. Parliament, worrying details subsidy burden. In have emerged on how some of For example, recent years, the measures might be wholly monies raised by counterproductive, even if India’s subsidy start-up ventures unintended. For example, burden has grown by individuals and monies raised by start-up faster than GDP to institutions other ventures by individuals and stand at 2.4% of than venture institutions other than venture GDP. Projected capital funds, might be treated capital funds, expenditure on as ‘income from other sources’! might be treated as This will be a blow to start-ups government ‘income from other that have to, mostly, rely on subsidies is less sources’! This will angel-investor funding. This is unrealistic (it is not be a blow to start- not the recipe to boost the same as being ups that have to, entrepreneurship and ‘more realistic’) investment in the economy. mostly, rely on than in the 2011-12 angel-investor budget. The funding. This is not the recipe to government intends to cap the boost entrepreneurship and overall subsidy burden at less investment in the economy. than 2% of GDP. This is based on brave estimates for the major Besides the tax revenues and items of subsidy expenditure. For expected sale of government instance, the risk of the actual stakes in public sector enterprises, subsidy burden overshooting the there is little by way of reining in budget allocation for petroleum government expenditure as a products is quite high.

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 37 The biggest subsidy burden is on that ought to be charged based on cooking gas which is cornered by the international price of crude oil. the middle and upper income These calculations can be found groups, in the name of the poor. for petrol, high-speed diesel and From the website of the Indian Oil cooking gas. This gap will, of Corporation (Indian Oil ), it is course, change, based on changes possible to find the extent of in the imported price of crude oil ‘under-recovery’ – the difference for India. At 52%, the under- between the price charged by the recovery for oil companies is in oil company for petroleum cooking gas is the highest in rupee products to traders and the price and in percentage terms.

High Speed Petrol Cooking Gas Diesel (INR per (INR per (INR per cylinder litre) litre) of 14.2 kgs) Under-recovery 13.1 4.12 439.64 Economic Price 54.01 69.76 838.64 Under-recovery as a % 24.3% 5.9% 52.4% Economic Price Calculation as of 3/16/2012 3/16/2012 3/7/2012

Prices are based on New Delhi retail prices. Source: Indian Oil Corporation.

Yet, there is considerable needs to be funded. In the intellectual resistance to removing meantime, prices must reflect the subsidies on energy products. The domestic scarcity of the resource. arguments are based on wrong Second, hydrocarbon products and misleading comparisons with cause pollution. The user has to the developed world. India relies pay. All countries levy taxes. substantially on imported oil. Further, most products attract Besides being a big part of our excise duty. Petroleum products import bill, it is a security risk too. are not exceptional in this regard. If India has to diversify its energy Of course, other countries adjust sources, it has to invest. That the tax burden when prices get too

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 38 high. India is unable to do that The Finance Minister understands because of, you guessed it right, its the gravity of the situation. But, fiscal deficit. The poor can and the political will and support - not should be given an income top-up just from within the Congress instead of introducing and Party but from the entire political retaining distortions in the market spectrum - needed to deliver on prices of various products and this promise is suspect. The sordid services. drama of the rollback of the fare increases announced in the Another consequence of the under- Railway budget is a painful recovery in petroleum products is reminder of how politicians hurt their contribution to the the nation enormously, rather persistence of high inflation casually. However, the Congress is expectations. Put differently, particularly guilty because it has households know that there is appointed an economist as the always the likelihood that the Prime Minister and yet has turned prices of petroleum products - the discourse on public spending diesel, petrol and cooking gas – away from sustainability and will be raised, to ease the burden efficacy and towards entitlement. on the government. The sooner the prices reflect international trends To meet its budget deficit target, and adjust automatically, the the government has to rely on luck expectation of an administered and guts. Unfortunately, it has a price hike luring around the big deficit on both of them too. corner will fade. Therefore, with its subsidies, the government is not only adding to its deficit burden but also keeps inflation back to content expectations high.

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 39 Balochistan On The Boil, Pakistan In Denial - Sushant Sareen

he insurgency mounted by incidents of violence and unrest – Baloch freedom fighters has targeted killings, ambushes of T been variously described as security personnel, ‘missing ‘Pakistan’s Other War’, ‘The Silent persons’ and the discovery of their War’, ‘The Dirty War’ etc. by the mutilated bodies, the daily international media. One of the humiliated visited on the ordinary main reasons why this ‘war’ has Baloch who is insulted by being until now not made the front forced to shout slogans in favour of pages of newspapers is the Pakistan, the fleeting references to conspiracy of silence hatched, the ban imposed by Baloch dictated and enforced by the ‘deep freedom fighters on raising the state’ which had muzzled Pakistani flag or singing the Pakistan’s ‘independent’ media Pakistani national anthem from any detailed reportage about anywhere in the province etc. – the turmoil in Pakistan’s largest are enough to inform about the and poorest province – great tumult that is building up in Balochistan. Let alone foreign the province. journalists, even Pakistani media personnel are not allowed free It took a maverick US access to most parts of Balochistan Congressman, Dana Rohrabacher, which have become virtual ‘no-go’ to bring Balochistan on to the areas. Local journalists are centre-stage of Pakistan's political intimidated – around half a dozen discourse. The Congressional have been killed and many more hearing organised by have gone into exile – and Rohrabacher, followed by the forbidden from any bold reporting. resolution moved by him in the US Big media houses follow an Congress calling for the right to undeclared policy of not covering self-determination in Balochistan the inconvenient reality of shook and shocked the Pakistani Balochistan in any great detail. establishment – military, media, But even the sketchy reports of politicians and judiciary, all * Sushant Sareen - Senior Fellow,VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 40 together – out of their callous regulator, and partly it was the reverie about Balochistan. result of a realisation that the Suddenly, Balochistan became the heavens were still some distance flavour of the season and away from falling down and all saturation coverage was given to was still not lost in the province. the dismal state of affairs in the Notwithstanding the degree of province. Parallels were drawn equanimity that has come into the with the follies committed by the public discourse on Balochistan, it Pakistani state in the erstwhile is quite clear that Pakistan is at East Pakistan, its wits end on how doomsday to address the scenarios were Notwithstanding the degree of sweeping anti- floated, conspiracy equanimity that has come into Pakistan and pro- theories were the public discourse on independence conjured up and Balochistan, it is quite clear sentiment in verbal self- that Pakistan is at its wits end Balochistan. Other flagellation about on how to address the than resorting to the sins of omission sweeping anti-Pakistan and Gestapo-like tactics and commission pro-independence sentiment in to bludgeon the committed by the Balochistan. Other than freedom seeking Pakistani state, resorting to Gestapo-like Baloch into particularly the tactics to bludgeon the freedom submission, the security seeking Baloch into Pakistani establishment submission, the Pakistani establishment is (Army, FC, establishment is pretty pretty clueless on intelligence clueless on what it can do to what it can do to agencies and their woo the Baloch and end their woo the Baloch and jihadist proxies) alienation and disaffection end their became the order of with Pakistan. alienation and the day for over two weeks. disaffection with Pakistan. Until now, Pakistan has been following Then, just as suddenly as a 3 C’s policy: (1)coercion (illegal Balochistan erupted on air waves confinement and targeted killings and newsprint as a panic word, it by death squads run by the disappeared. This was partly the Pakistani intelligence agencies result of the cracking of the whip and paramilitary forces like the by the ‘deep state’ and a muzzle Frontier Corps), (2)corruption order issued by the media (buying off support of the local

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 41 politicians and every Pakistani Kohlu, Khuzdar and Turbat. But party recruiting their own set of the incongruity of this narrative is Quislings, collaborators and what borne out by the sheer mismatch Baloch freedom fighters call between the scale of the ‘Sarkari’ Baloch like the Lt. Gen. insurgency and panic in (retd) Abdul Qadir Baloch, Chief Islamabad. After all, if the Minister Aslam Raisani, Sardar problem in Balochistan was so Sanaullah Zehri etc.), and (3) small, then why was so much cajoling and cooption (grandiose newsprint and airtime expended gestures like the Aaghaz-e- on discussing the problem? Huqooq-e-Balochistan package of Perhaps the answer to this lies in economic initiatives and political what Sardar Akhtar Mengal called reforms, cosmetic gestures like a panic created by the fact that the making the port city Gwadar ‘overlord’ (read US) had suddenly second capital, increasing taken notice of the rampant and recruitment of Baloch into army brazen violation of human rights and paramilitary forces, some in Balochistan by the ‘underling’ development work, and tons of (read Pakistani establishment)! propaganda) – to woo the Baloch The Pakistani spin about the or at least sow divisions in their fringe nature of insurgency has ranks. But there is little by way of also been blunted by the gauntlet success that this policy has thrown by the leaders of the achieved. Baloch freedom movement who have challenged Pakistan to test Another tack adopted by the the popularity of the demand for Pakistani establishment was to independence by holding a use the ‘embedded’ media to churn referendum under international out a counter narrative which was supervision to ascertain whether a combination of an Ostrich-like the Baloch wanted to stay in approach to the problem and a Pakistan or wanted their freedom. deliberate attempt to play down the severity of the issue. According A clumsy effort was also made to to this narrative, the problem in sow ethnic and linguistic divisions Balochistan was only of three out by pitting the Baloch against the of around seventy odd Sardars – Pashtuns and the Balochi Bugti, Mengal and Marri – and speaking against the Brahvi was limited to around four to five speaking people, but it did not districts, including Dera Bugti, receive much traction because the

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 42 protagonists of Baloch of where it came from. One of the independence have made it very icons of the Baloch freedom clear that they hold no claim over movement, Brahmdagh Bugti, Pashtun lands – North even said that they would accept Balochistan – and are not the assistance from Satan himself demanding independence for to rid themselves of the yoke of Balochistan province but for only Pakistan. Indeed, many of the the Baloch areas of the province Baloch activists are hoping that along with Baloch areas of Punjab the propaganda about foreign and Sindh. The assistance becomes Pakistani ‘deep A clumsy effort was also made a self-fulfilling state’ and its to sow ethnic and linguistic prophecy, clients in the media divisions by pitting the Baloch something that and political against the Pashtuns and the cannot be ruled out establishment also Balochi speaking against the if the Pakistani tried to discredit Brahvi speaking people, but it paranoia gets a life the Baloch freedom did not receive much traction of its own and movement by because the protagonists of ultimately forces coming up with Baloch independence have the international conspiracy theories made it very clear that they community to and launching a hold no claim over Pashtun intervene to propaganda lands – North Balochistan – prevent the campaign about and are not demanding atrocities being how an independence for Balochistan committed against international province but for only the the Baloch. In a conspiracy Baloch areas of the province sense, the masterminded by along with Baloch areas of seriousness of the the perfidious Punjab and Sindh. situation in Americans and Balochistan can be fully supported by gauged by the fact the Israelis and Indians was being that until now there has been hatched to dismember Pakistan. practically no assistance given by any foreign power to the Baloch, Far from being fazed by this something that the Pakistan canard, leaders of the Baloch military and intelligence freedom movement openly establishment know very well. welcomed any assistance that What is scaring them is how much would come their way regardless the situation can actually

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 43 deteriorate if some foreign power withdrawal of cases against them did start providing 'diplomatic, and declaring an intention to hold political and moral support'. a sincere and serious dialogue with the Baloch leadership to The attempt to push things under address their grievances. But the carpet, deflect attention from instead of placating the Baloch, the real issue, and downplay the the withdrawal of cases has been unrest and greeted with alienation in derision. As for a Balochistan doesn’t The attempt to push things dialogue, the mean that things under the carpet, deflect Baloch leaders are looking up for attention from the real issue, have declared that Pakistan and that and downplay the unrest and they will be willing they are not as bad alienation in Balochistan to talk to the as was being doesn’t mean that things are Pakistani projected. In fact, looking up for Pakistan and establishment only the situation is that they are not as bad as was if the talks are probably a lot being projected. In fact, the centred on worse and could situation is probably a lot discussing deteriorate further, worse and could deteriorate Balochistan’s both because the further, both because the independence. Baloch freedom Baloch freedom fighters are fighters are already already feeling enthused by The Baloch leaders feeling enthused by their cause coming on to the – both pro- their cause coming radar screen of the independence and on to the radar international community and pro-federation – screen of the also because the Pakistani have also rejected international crackdown is likely to get a lot the All Parties community and more brutal, albeit after a bit Conference also because the of a lull to let things cool down. proposed by Prime Pakistani Minister Yusuf crackdown is likely to get a lot Raza Gilani. While the Baloch more brutal, albeit after a bit of a have labelled the APC as a lull to let things cool down. In the pointless exercise, even meantime, the Pakistani political mainstream political parties in establishment has pretended to Pakistan, in particular the main reach out to the disgruntled opposition party PMLN, have Baloch leaders by announcing a dismissed the APC proposal. In

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 44 fact, the PMLN has attached movement. None other than the almost impossible to meet pre- doyen of Baloch nationalists, conditions – arresting and trying Sardar Attaullah Mengal, the murderers of Nawab Akbar admitted this to PMLN chief Bugti (read former military Nawaz Sharif. According to dictator Gen Pervez Musharraf), Mengal, things were no longer in recovering and releasing all the control of the old leadership as ‘missing persons’ (believed to have a new generation of leaders were been picked up by the security now calling the shots. The man agencies), and brining to justice all who is believed to have become the officials involved in extra-judicial icon of the Baloch freedom fighters killings. Actually, the PMLN is is the Balochistan Liberation more interested in grinding its Front (BLF) chief, Dr Allah Nazar. own political axe rather than Others like the Balochistan seriously address the Balochistan Republican Party (BRP) chief, issue. Given such an attitude and Nawabzada Brahmdagh Bugti approach, it is no surprise that the (grandson of the slain Baloch APC is a stillborn proposal in leader Nawab Akbar Bugti), which no one is interested, Hyrbyair Marri (son of Nawab certainly not the ruling PPP which Khair Bux Marri), and is chary of doing anything that Balochistan National Party (BNP) ruffles the feathers of the military chief Sardar Akhtar Mengal (son establishment. of Sardar Attaullah Mengal) are also in the vanguard of the Time however could be running nationalist movement. But while out for the Pakistani state in Dr Allah Nazar is fighting against Balochistan. Things have reached Pakistan from inside Balochistan, such a pass that pro-federation the other pro-independence politicians who act as toadies of leaders are in exile and hence the government are finding it their effectiveness is somewhat difficult to defend, much less reduced. justify, the actions of the Pakistani state. In any case, the traditional At the political level, moves are political elite has been steadily afoot to bring all the pro- losing ground to a new crop of independence elements together middle-class youth leaders who and forge a united national cutting across tribal lines are movement. The first step in this forging a potent national direction has been taken with

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 45 efforts underway agree on a recede into a shell to lick its ‘Freedom Charter’ which will serve wounds and leave the Baloch to as the vision statement of a future their own devices. In case of the Balochistan state. But a lot will former, chances of an independent depend on how much support the Balochistan which also acts as a international community gives to bulwark against Islamic the Baloch. It is entirely possible fanaticism and terrorism will be that with tectonic changes taking very bright. But in the latter case, place in the region, especially in with no help coming for the relation to Afghanistan and Iran, Baloch, chances are that the the international community Baloch independence movement might discover that an being smothered yet again. independent Baloch state could well be the strategic answer to all their problems. But it is equally back to content possible that a tired and defeated international community might

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 46 Resumption Of India Pakistan Back Channel Talks: An Uncalled For Move - Satish Chandra

t is understood that the India- the aforesaid Mumbai attack, but Pakistan back channel talks it was also under his aegis that I have been reactivated and are the infamous Sharm el Sheikh underway. It may be recalled that India Pakistan joint statement of this back channel was initiated at July 16th 2009 was issued which the beginning of the UPA regime asserted that “Action on terrorism in 2004 and was in operation all should not be linked to the along until its disruption following composite dialogue process and the Mumbai attack of November these should not be bracketed.” 2008. The main focus of the back Furthermore, he allowed this joint channel dialogue, initially statement to contain a reference to conducted by Mr. J.N. Dixit and terrorist threats faced by Pakistan Mr. Tariq Aziz and later by Mr. in Baluchistan---- a first for any S.K. Lambah and Riaz India-Pakistan document !! Mohammad Khan, was the settlement of the Kashmir issue Resumption of the India-Pakistan and accordingly Musharraf’s four back channel dialogue is point proposal in this regard unfortunate for a variety of occupied centre stage. reasons some of which may be enumerated as follows: The resumption of the India- Pakistan back channel at this 1. Firstly, it eases the pressure stage though quite uncalled for is on Pakistan to shut down the not surprising as Dr Manmohan infrastructure of terror Singh is known to be notoriously directed against India as it soft on Pakistan. Not only did he suggests that relations refrain from taking any penal between the two countries action against Pakistan for its have achieved a measure of involvement in several terrorist normalcy. Regrettably, this actions against India, including is not so since Pakistan has given India no satisfaction * Satish Chandra- Distinguished Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 47 on the issue of terrorism and perpetrators of the Mumbai since it misses no attack to book. Indeed, the opportunity to try and do Prime Minister himself India down in every asserted in Parliament on conceivable way. In this July 29, 2009 that “Pakistan context, one need only refer has to act and act effectively to the fact that it continues on terrorism before there can in its export of terrorism and be a comprehensive dialogue fake currency to India, its covering all areas of pursuit of an India centric disagreement or concerns of nuclear weapon development the two countries”. As programme, its opposition to regards the back channel India’s quest for a dialogue, the External permanent seat in the UN Affairs Minister, Mr. Security Council, and its Krishna, following his military and political meeting with his Pakistani linkages with China which counterpart on the margins are clearly directed against of the UN General Assembly India. In these in September 2009 asserted circumstances, it is grave that “When we have a front error to send out signals that channel, there’s no need for a there has been a back channel,” adding that normalization of ties with India would want more Pakistan, particularly at a “concrete” actions against time when the rest of the the Mumbai terror suspects world, more than ever before, before agreeing to resume has begun to accept that the dialogue. Accordingly, Pakistan is the fount of the resumption of the back terror. channel dialogue with 2. Secondly, it goes against the Pakistan following our grain of repeated assertions resumption of a made by the government comprehensive dialogue on that a resumption of the the “front channel” in clear dialogue process with contravention of our Pakistan would only take categorical statements to the place after the latter gave us contrary in the matter will satisfaction on terrorism and convince leaders in that in particular brought the country that India is a soft

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 48 state and will, therefore, only embolden them to continue to use terror against us in a 3. Thirdly, this move will give business as usual mode. As the Kashmir issue a much Mumtaz Khan, a migrant higher profile as the back from PoK, who runs the channel is primarily International Centre for concerned with it. This is Peace and Democracy in obviously not in our interest Toronto, is reported to have as the Kashmir issue which stated recently “I don’t know is currently dormant will be when India is revived. Pakistan’s going to It is sometimes argued that meddling in the learn. Kashmir is the core issue in matter will receive India-Pakistani differences a fillip and Pakistan is and it is, therefore, imperative smart…it has that it be resolved in order to secessionists will initiated wars normalize relations between up the ante in and terrorist the countries. This is respect of their attacks. But fallacious. Even if the Kashmir demands. Indeed, New Delhi issue is somehow resolved with the revival of India-Pakistan relations will the back channel still wants to not be normalized and other talk with differences on issues such as dialogue Pakistan them.” In a water will be manufactured by has been quick to similar vein the Pakistani military invite the Hurriyat Senge Sering leadership which has a vested leaders to visit who heads interest in maintaining an Pakistan and to inimical relationship with announce that the the Institute India in order to perpetuate of Gilgit- itself in power. Kashmir issue Baltistan should be resolved Studies in in accordance with Washington is reported to relevant UN resolutions and have stated that “Pakistan is that Pakistan would only buying time. India has continue to extend moral, the memory of a goldfish, political and diplomatic which lasts only seven support to Kashmir’s seconds. New Delhi should struggle for self realize that they are dealing determination. It is for this with a State which is not reason that India has always trustworthy.” avoided, and Pakistan has

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 49 always sought, to give a high which envisages soft borders, profile to the Kashmir issue. demilitarization, devolution, and It is sometimes argued that joint control/joint management, is Kashmir is the core issue in something that we should never India-Pakistani differences have encouraged as it flies in the and it is, therefore, face of the unanimously adopted imperative that it be February 1994 Parliament resolved in order to resolution on Kashmir. This normalize relations between resolution categorically called for the countries. This is the vacation of aggression by fallacious. Even if the Pakistan in Kashmir and an end Kashmir issue is somehow to its use of terror against us. The resolved India-Pakistan logic behind the resolution was relations will not be that Kashmir is an integral part of normalized and other India and Pakistan has no locus differences on issues such as standi in the matter. Any water will be manufactured understanding with Pakistan by by the Pakistani military India on the basis of the leadership which has a Musharraf proposal is, therefore, vested interest in unlikely to be accepted by the maintaining an inimical nation. relationship with India in order to perpetuate itself in power.

Finally, the back channel dialogue with Pakistan on the Kashmir back to content issue centering around Musharraf’s four point proposal

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 50 An Insider’s Perspective - Kanwal Sibal

iaz Mohammed Khan’s 2008, offers an insider’s book “Afghanistan and perspective on the subject. His R Pakistan” adds to the book is not a work of scholarship already numerous books based on “rigorous or extensive” available on the shelves on the research, as the author avows in linked Afghanistan-Pakistan the introduction. He offers, as he situation. The Taliban-takeover says, a “broad-brush treatment of Afghanistan, the of events”, weaving 9/11 terror attack “personal The Taliban-takeover of that provoked US experiences, Afghanistan, the 9/11 terror military attack that provoked US perspectives, and intervention military intervention leading evaluation into the leading to Taliban’s to Taliban’s ouster from power, larger narrative”, ouster from power, US failure to consoildate its derived from his US failure to success because of the various consoildate its distraction of the Iraq war, the assignments in the success because of resurgence of the Taliban and Pakistani Foreign the distraction of Pakistan’s collusion in this, Office. the Iraq war, the have all been analysed by A former Pakistani resurgence of the diverse authors from different diplomat who has Taliban and perspectives. Pakistan’s officially handled collusion in this, have all been Afghanistan related issues, analysed by diverse authors from analysed them on file and in different perspectives. So when a internal discussions, and new book appears it has to offer contributed in some measure to more than a pastiche of facts, policy making, can be expected to views and analyses that the adhere largely to the standard reader is already familiar with. Pakistani view that we know. While this undercurrent in not The author, who was Pakistan’s absent from the book, the Foreign Secretary from 2005 to sobriety with which the author

* Kanwal Sibal - Member Advisory Board, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 51 expounds his views and the counter-insurgency strategy is penetrating reflections he makes examined, recommendations are on many aspects of Pakistani made for an Afghnistan-Pakistan thinking and policies is striking. modus vivendi, the conundrum of US-Pakistan relations is The first part of the book covers looked at, with a glance at the the post-Soviet withdrawal expectations of Pakistan whose phase of the Afghanistan conflict dearth of political and from 1989 to 1995, the advent of intellectual leadership is the Taliban from 1996 to 2001, highlighted. the developments in Afghanistan post-9/11, with the interests and The author does not believe that concerns of the external powers Pakistan bears the major examined in a separate chapter. responsibility for the mess in The second part deals with the Afghanistan, though he does Pakistan context of the Afghan expose the disruptive aspects of situation, with focus on the its policies and actions. The grave challenge of religious Pakistan Army and the ISI, he militancy and extremism that acknowledges, have supported the country faces. The the Afghan insurgents at the intellectual crisis and weak highest levels, and at the middle governance in Pakistan is levels have admired their piety examined with great acuity in and intransigence. He rejects, chapter 6 of the book. The book however, the idea that the ISI ends with the author’s created the Taliban, arguing “Conclusions” that pinpoint the that they were a phenomenon mistakes made and waiting to happen after 10 years opportunities missed by western of Soviet occupation and 5 years powers in dealing with the of internecine conflict, with developments in Afghanistan at President Zia’s islamization critical moments. This section policies, the mushrooming of assesses the exit strategy, the madrassahs and muslim prospects of stabilizing charities from the Gulf under the Aghanistan, the reconciliation influence of Wahhabi and and reconstruction agenda and Deobandi ideology acting as the challenge of rebuilding of the catalysts. He concedes that in Afghan National Army. The the 1990s the Pakistanis did December 10 review of the US believe that the Taliban offered

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 52 the best hope for stabilization as 9/11 resurgence of the Taliban. they drew strength from ethnic They had been routed but not Pashtuns straddling the border, destroyed. Later developments, and that once settled in power according to the author, they would become more including America’s war on Iraq moderate. Hence, Pakistan which strengthened the Al Qaida favoured engaging the Taliban and deflected US attention away before and after 9/11, but the from Afghanistan, lack of international community economic support for isolated them in the 1990s Afghanistan after Bonn and the because of their human rights meagre results of the Tokyo record, treatment of women, the Donors Conference that only bombing of the US embassies in helped to foster the opium Kenya and Tanzania embassies economy, the ineffectiveness of and the Al Qaida connection, aid programmes, poor pushing the Taliban therefore governance, the absence of towards greater dependence on government at local levels, the foreign elements. neglect of agriculture as a result, the non-Pashtun character of the After 9/11 Pakistan’s earlier Afghan National Army, the policy of supporting the Taliban perception that the Taliban were was of course in shambles, with fighting for Pashtun rights, the the Northern Alliance in Kabul overweening US and UN and Al Qaida and Taliban presence that hurt President elements moving into FATA. Karzai’s image and no accretion President Musharraf pressed the to his authority after the 2004 US not to allow a government in Presidential election, all Kabul unfriendly to Pakistan contributed to the steady and pleaded for the inclusion of resurgence of the Taliban. some moderate Taliban elements in it, but the Bonn Agreement Afghanistan holds Pakistan excluded the Taliban and all responsible for this development hardline Mujaheddin groups, as the insurgents operate from which, for the author, was a Pakistani territory. Pakistan, mistake. however, believes it is a victim of the unsettled situation in The author argues that Pakistan Afghanistan. The author refutes is not responsible for the post the widely made charge that

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 53 because Pakistan views the the Pakistani Taliban and that Taliban as a long term asset for apart from Pakistani empathy recovering political influence in with the Taliban, Pakistan has Kabul, it is reluctant to act limited capacity to interdict and against the group. Pakistan, in control them. According to him, his view, can be blamed for half- Pakistan has been soft on the hearted cooperation but not such Haqqanis and Mullah Nazir with calculation. He sees the conflict a view to squeezing Baitullah as fundamentally an Afghan Masud. However, even as suicide issue. However, with US bombings in Pakistan are rising, counter-insurgency the US asks efforts failing to Pakistan to do produce wanted Afghanistan holds Pakistan more. The author results, Pakistan responsible for this denies any double has come under development as the insurgents dealing by greater pressure, operate from Pakistani Pakistan; even pro- with the drone territory. Pakistan, however, US elements in attacks believes it is a victim of the Pakistan, according exacerbating US- unsettled situation in to him, are Pakistan tensions. Afghanistan. The author disappointed that Lack of trust now refutes the widely made charge the US does not see marks the military that because Pakistan views the complexity of relations between the Taliban as a long term the problem facing the two countries, asset for recovering political Pakistan. The with a growing influence in Kabul, it is general feeling in disconnect between reluctant to act against the Pakistan is that the US and group. the war on terror is Pakistan not that of perceptions and approaches at Pakistan and that Pakistan is the operational level. being used as hired help. The author tries to persuade but fails The author makes the familiar to convince. argument that Pakistan does not target the Afghan Taliban as Looking ahead at prospects of they do not fight Pakistani stability in Afghanistan, the troops or carry on acts of violence author sees the US military within the country, that presence in Afghanistan a Pakistan’s primary concern is problem as well as a solution.

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 54 The Afghan population is tired of a conventional military threat to violence and conflict. If the US Pakistan. forces begin withdrawing and other improvements on the Backing the Taliban is no longer ground occur, the rationale for a viable option for Pakistan fighting would weaken. Hearts today, he says, as that would and minds cannot be won by give the Pakistani Taliban more intensification of military efforts. strength. The author realistically But then, until the Afghan notes that the Taliban had National Security Forces(ANSF) earlier risen to power in are built, the militancy cannot be Afghanistan because of unique pacified. developments, but today opposition to them is strong, The chapter on the role of Afghanistan is not the war torn external powers provides some country of the mid-1990s and the useful insights into the thinking non-Pashtuns are not willing to of China and Iran as shared with accept Taliban rule. Pakistan the Pakistanis. The author sees can at best exert local influence the rivalry between India, Iran in a fragmented Afghanistan. and Pakistan as a source of problems. While recognizing that It is difficult to believe that, as Pakistan and Afghanistan the author claims, Pakistan will cannot be detached because of not pursue factional politics in intense informal linkages Afghanistan to balance Indian between the two countries, he influence. General Musharraf, sees Pakistan’s posture of who no doubt reflects sentiments treating Aghanistan as its prevailing in the Pakistani backyard as being deeply military, still proclaims at all offensive to the Afghans. He is forums that India is in close scornful of the concept of alliance with the erstwhile strategic depth that has Northern Alliance groups and animated the thinking of the that the Afghan intelligence Pakistani military towards cooperates with R&AW in Afghanistan and finds Pakistani Pakistani frontier areas and pleas for a friendly government Balochistan. The author is even in Kabul politically unwarranted less persuasive when he argues as Afghanistan has never posed that in Pakistan’s soft environment(!) contacts between

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 55 the Afghan Taliban and retired issue in Pakistan-Iran bilateral military officials do exist but the relations. The author considers latter are not acting in the Iranian policy pragmatic and accordance with official policy. circumspect. According to him, a stable Afghanistan would require a The author is critical of Saudi balance between different groups Arabia’s role in financing and not domination by any madrassahs in Pakistan and particular one. Afghanistan with salafist ideology and making no effort to India’s interest in Afghanistan is reverse this policy. The Russians not presented by the author with cannot overlook the fact that the the usual Pakistani distortions. Taliban were the only He sees India maintaining good government to recognize relations with the Northern Chechenya. The author has Alliance and building goodwill detected no concern in Russia among the Pashtuns. He about US bases in Afghanistan. believes, rightly, that some China has expressed no adverse understanding between India reaction to US military and Pakistan could have a intervention in Afghanistan positive impact on Afghanistan, either. However, beyond curbing recalling that in 2006 India had terrorism and religious approached Pakistan to help extremism, China would not Afghanistan settle down but want a consolidation of US Pakistan took it as a bid to raise presence in Afghanistan. China the transit issue and did not has shown no anxiety in bilateral respond. discussions with Pakistan about Nato presence in Afghanistan or For Iran the Taliban are, the its use of Pakistani faciities. In author recognizes, a challenge the author’s view tension because of their salafist ideology between US and Pakistan is a The Iranians recall the killing of liability for China, but he does their personnel by Pakistani not explain why. anti-shia elements amongst the Taliban. Iran has concern about back to content US support for Iranian dissident groups. They haven’t made Pak- US military co-operation an

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 56 The chapter on Pakistan in the military, while the Nawaz Sharif book is possibly the most government, whose supporters in revealing as the author is clinical the business community who in dissecting Pakistan’s believe in Islamization, saw shortcomings and failings. An jihadi groups with equanimity. Indian observer making similar Benazir Bhutto did not take on assessment of the state of affairs the religious constituency, in Pakistan would have been Musharraf was cautious not to accused of a deep anti Pakistan touch the army’s sensitivities on bias. The author confirms all the Kashmir and ruffle orthodoxy. negative Indian perceptions of Pakistan. For him, There is ambiguity the challenge in In the 90s sectarian violence in Pakistan Pakistan is a was seen as a bane, but jihadi towards the threat combination of groups despite their sectarian of religious religious affiliations were cossetted by extremism, he motivation, the military, while the Nawaz notes. A lot of Sharif government, whose ground has been madrassah supporters in the business education, community who believe in ceded to Afghanistan and Islamization, saw jihadi groups conservative Kashmir related with equanimity. Benazir islamic thinking rhetoric and official Bhutto did not take on the and to religious patronage for religious constituency, parties. Musharraf was cautious not to Musharraf’s religious militancy. touch the army’s sensitivities The Pakistani on Kashmir and ruffle concept of sunni groups have orthodoxy. enlightened participated in moderation was simplistic. He failed to achieve Taliban campaigns. The LeT has been involved in the Kashmir madrassah and mosque reforms insurgency, but while the group and the banning militant has avoided violence in Pakistan sectarian groups. The attempt to it has fostered an environment of revise the blasphemy laws intolerance in Pakistan. created some anxiety amongst the ranks, which points to the In the 90s sectarian violence was spread of extremist thinking in seen as a bane, but jihadi groups the lower echelons of the despite their sectarian military. affiliations were cossetted by the

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 57 Pakistan shows a strong trans- which can be softened but not national impulse rooted in the changed. Ummah, with jihadi groups showing no respect for national The ideas of security, religiosity boundaries, including in and patriotism suit the military. Afghanistan says the author. There is aggressive patriotism at The Tableeghi Jamat has retired mid level military and created a dense religious civilian official level. Jihad, piety emvironment. The influence of and faith is the motto of army, the jamaat e islami, religious The ranks of the armed forces vigilantism, politicisation of are not immune to extremism. education has Hawkish views on stifled culture. Zia The ideas of security, security and ul Haque policy of religiosity and patriotism suit foreign relations islamisation and the military. There is assosciated with aggressive patriotism at ISI are quite the Saudi inspired retired mid level military and common in the salafist thinking civilian official level. Jihad, has taken root. piety and faith is the motto of Foreign offfice and army, The ranks of the armed the civilan The author is forces are not immune to establishment candid about the extremism. Hawkish views on because of many backing the jihadi security and foreign relations bouts of military assosciated with ISI are quite rule in Pakistan. groups have common in the Foreign offfice received from the and the civilan establishment Pakistani military because of many bouts of The author with a view to military rule in Pakistan. confirms the many compelling india to syndromes his country suffers negotiate on Kashmir. The Pakistani military from. Pakistan has a beseiged has believed that the liberation mentality, with conspiracy struggle in Kashmir could be theories rampant. It externalizes successfully supported. The ISI blame, blaming India and the US was deeply involved with for supporting the Taliban, even Kashmir groups. Pakistan is in Mahsud, as well as suicide permanent confrontation with bombings. Pakistan resorts to India. Mistrust of india, he says denial with facility, saying the ominously, is part of Pakistan Kashmir struggle is indigenous, army’s institutional culture denying the presence of Mullah

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 58 Omar or the Al Qaida in his recommendations for the Pakistan. There is a streak of future are eminently sensible, anti- modernity in popular even if his analysis of the past thinking, an antipathy towards can be questioned in parts. secularism, modernization and liberalism, a tendency to condone the Al Qaida and Taliban’s excesses as a consequence of the back to content US presence in Afghanistan.

The author’s conclusions cover the past and the future. Many of

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 59 Voting Against Sri Lanka - PP Shukla

ighting an insurgency is support the condemnation of any dirty business. We in India country by name. In large F know that. In the west, this measure, this is because we all is understood with the cold- know that such resolutions are blooded acceptance that is typical really political in nature, and the of them. And they have never human rights issue is just a thin hesitated to draw blood when their veneer to make the adoption of interests required it. It is only such resolutions more palatable in when their plans are thwarted by multilateral settings. It is, for the other side successfully example, highly unlikely that we applying force that we hear the cry shall see any resolution naming of human rights and war crimes. Bahrain for human rights These are obvious points, and we violations – or Pakistan, where have been – still are in some areas Hindus and other minorities - at the receiving of the double literally live in terror. standards. It would be reasonable to expect that the Government In addition, Sri Lanka is an area would appreciate this reality and of vital interest to us, and one of frame its policies accordingly. the better bilateral relationships Evidently not, as the recent vote among our South Asian on Sri Lanka at the UN Human neighbours. Not just that, the Rights Council shows. LTTE – as distinct from the Tamil population of Sri Lanka – has On the draft Resolution naming given us nothing but grief since Sri Lanka, we began with the the days of the IPKF. In short, eminently sensible assertion that there were many reasons for GOI we have never supported country- to adhere the time-tested policy of specific resolutions on human not supporting country-specific rights. The logic is that we have resolutions. ourselves been the target of such attempts in the past, and have But the Prime Minister reversed drawn the right lesson – never that stand under pressure from

* PP Shukla - Joint Director, VIF th

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 60 e Dravida parties, even though it matter that it is couched in polite is difficult to understand what language. kind of pressure these two parties were able to bring; one is weak The proceedings themselves are and needs the Congress, rather also revealing: China and Cuba than the other way around; the spoke in defence of the Sri Lankan other is not a supporter at all and position. The Americans, is not likely to be one any time supported by the EU countries, soon. expressed support for the Draft Resolution. Sri Lanka thanked The Resolution itself is China and Cuba for their support. straightforward enough. Its Many countries gave explanations demands are, of vote, including however, such that There is a Tamil problem in the above we would not Sri Lanka. And India alone has countries, as well countenance any the knowledge, the standing, as Russia. India such demand being and the commitment to both did not speak in placed on us. It the Sri Lankans and the the debate, or requests the Tamils to play a fair and provide an Government of Sri effective role in righting this explanation of vote. Lanka, inter alia, situation. But not for the first Russia, China, “to present, as time, we are flunking our role Bangladesh, expeditiously as and our destiny. This is a pity, Maldives all voted possible, a for we have covered the hard against the comprehensive yards over the last three Resolution. action plan decades. Malaysia was detailing the steps among the eight that the Government has taken countries that abstained. India and will take to implement the voted in favour, and was also the recommendations made in the only Asian country that did so. [Lessons Learned and Reconciliation] Commission’s There is a Tamil problem in Sri report, and also to address alleged Lanka. And India alone has the violations of international law”. knowledge, the standing, and the Not many Governments in the commitment to both the Sri world would like to be at the Lankans and the Tamils to play a receiving end of such a demand, no fair and effective role in righting this situation. But not for the first

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 61 time, we are flunking our role and mistake we made in the 1980’s, our destiny. This is a pity, for we when the LTTE physically have covered the hard yards over eliminated all rival groups, and we the last three decades. The acquiesced in this. The bitter framework for a solution has been experience of the later years, worked out, largely under Indian including the assassination of prodding. It only needs to be , should serve as a implemented in good faith now. reminder against allowing the India is in a position to contribute LTTE – and its western to this process too, supporters, lay and and ensure a Further, we have serious ecclesiastical – to positive outcome. challenges emerging afresh in become the sole We have made the neighbourhood. China is voice of Tamil some efforts, but making steady progress in Sri aspirations again. obviously not Lanka. Some of it is a result of Their agenda is not serious enough to our incompetence, some of it is in our interest. make the critical the Sri Lankan attitude of Eelam is not in our difference. Events trying to outsmart us – a interest in today’s such as the vote common affliction in South circumstances. will only Asia. But we have vital stakes complicate our in the country, and cannot Further, we have task; fortunately, fashion our responses out of serious challenges the Prime Minister pique, or because of pressure emerging afresh in is reported to have from within and without. the neighbourhood. written to the Sri Pakistan is similarly fishing in China is making Lankan President the troubled waters. If steady progress in after the vote, so it standing up to domestic and Sri Lanka. Some of is to be hoped that external pressure was needed, it is a result of our that will smooth it was here, not over Iran. incompetence, things over. It some of it is the Sri would also be wise for Sri Lanka Lankan attitude of trying to also not to make a long-term outsmart us – a common affliction grievance of this matter, and agree in South Asia. But we have vital to put it behind us. stakes in the country, and cannot fashion our responses out of pique, However, the Tamil problem or because of pressure from within should not be allowed to become and without. Pakistan is similarly an LTTE problem. This was the fishing in the troubled waters. If

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 62 standing up to domestic and worth remembering that the external pressure was needed, it regime itself is unpopular and was here, not over Iran. devoid of legitimacy.

And that is the second point worth Equally important, it is far from making. Just as we should have clear that India has the will to resisted all kinds of pressures over pursue any serious interest or the Sri Lanka vote, we need to be stake in this region. There are more pragmatic, and less perverse, legitimate grounds to doubt over Iran. There are important whether we have the stamina for interests in Iran, no doubt, but any long-term commitment even to there is less substance to them Afghanistan. The test of all this is than our current to be found in the policy would seem willingness - or to suggest. Oil Moreover, the investigations otherwise – of GOI imports are by the Delhi Police into the to stand up to undoubtedly bombing of the Israeli Pakistan’s bare- important, but that diplomat’s car make it clear knuckles policies in about sums it all that there was Iranian Afghanistan. For up. All the rest, involvement. This is a serious instance, Pakistan particularly the breach of all diplomatic norms will not allow route to and even by the standards of Indian goods to Afghanistan and the special agencies, this is an transit to beyond to Central unfriendly act. Iran must be Afghanistan; and Asia, is a very called to account for this. yet, we have remote possibility. unilaterally given This is because Pakistani goods Iran is itself not quite clear where MFN treatment, when they have it stands – with the Taliban and not done so for Indian goods, as Pakistan, or against this alliance. they are required to do under the It is an active participant in all WTO rules. We are also now the regional summits hosted by planning, if press reports are to be Pakistan. This is because it is believed, to allow for easier driven basically by a visceral Pakistani investments – opposition to America, even investments from Pakistan! – in though it is far from clear that this India even though they have not represents the popular view of yet finalised their position on America within Iran. It is also MFN status for India.

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 63 Moreover, the investigations by As against this, we have real, the Delhi Police into the bombing immediate, and substantive of the Israeli diplomat’s car make interests in the west and Israel it clear that there was Iranian and the west, as has been set out involvement. This is a serious in an earlier piece in this space. breach of all diplomatic norms and For far too long, we have neglected even by the standards of the our national interests while special agencies, this is an pursuing mistaken policies. High unfriendly act. Iran must be called time to set things right. to account for this. We have approached the country for help in bringing the accused to justice; their willingness to cooperate will be the litmus test of their true back to content intent vis-à-vis India.

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 64 Better Government To Government Efforts Needed To Rejuvenate Nepal-India Relations - Hari Bansh Jha

Background for developing better understanding at the government- eople-to-people relations are to-government level. Such an always pivotal for understanding might not only P maintaining long-term prove potential in opening new bilateral relations between two vistas of economic cooperation, but countries. But such a relation gets it might also remove distrust, if new lease of life if it is backed by any, in the relations between the due understanding at the level of two countries. It is all the more heads of government of two necessary to develop due countries. This is true anywhere in understanding at the government- the world, but it is more so with to-government level between the context to Nepal and India. two countries as Nepal is constrained by political logjam and Relations at people-to-people level there is growing influence of between the two countries have foreign forces in the country. remained harmonious since time immemorial. But at times jerks Unique relation have been experienced at the government-to-government level No two countries in the world is in the relations between the two bound as much by cultural, countries to the great religious, geo-economic, political disadvantage of the people of the and strategic ties as Nepal and two countries. India. Therefore, people in India regard the Nepalese as closest to In view of the proximity between them and so is the attitude of Nepal and India, any development people of Nepal towards the in Nepal would have far reaching Indian people. Such people-to- implications in India and vice people relation is unique, which is versa. Hence, it bestows greater also made possible through the responsibility to the heads of open border system for the people governments of Nepal and India of one country to the other. * Hari Bansh Jha – Senior ICCR Fellow, IDAS

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 65 Thousands of Nepalese and that the Nepalese value India so Indians marry each other taking high when the Western countries advantage of the open border and multilateral institutions pour regime. Millions of Nepalese so much money in Nepal in the benefit from employment form of foreign aid?” In his reply, opportunities across the border in Singh asked, “Why is it that Sita, India. Many Indians also work in the daughter of Nepal, had none Nepal. Each day, the Nepalese go else than Ram, son of India, to for shopping in India and the marry? Why is it that Ram had no Indians come to Nepal. This one else other than Sita to marry?” uniqueness in relations between the two countries has really made For the purity of one’s household the Nepal-India border as chores or religious activities in borderless. Nepal, it is unavoidable to sprinkle Gangajal i.e. the holy It is this unique relation between water of the Ganga river flowing Nepal and India that gave way to through the Indian territory. No 1950 Treaty of Peace and ritual is possible from birth to the Friendship. Security interests of death in this country without the two countries were locked gangajal. Even the ashes of dead through this Treaty. Each country bodies in Nepal have to be made commitment for taking joint emerged into the Ganga. Souls of initiative in case there was the ancestors in this country rest external threat to any of them. in peace until certain rituals are Perhaps, this bound of common performed in Gaya in India. security made the Nepalese Prime People in Nepal have as much Minister Martika Prasad Koirala faith in Kashi, Ayodhya, Mathura, to publicly announce in 1950s that Vrindavan, Balaju or Rameshwar the defence of India was the in India as the people in India defence of Nepal. Equally, true is have in Janakpur (the birthplace the fact that the defence of Nepal of Sita), Pashupatinath and is the defence of India. Muktinath in Nepal.

No less remarkable are the views Long Gap in Visit by Indian Prime expressed by the Nepalese Prime Minister Minister K.I. Singh on Nepal- India relations. A foreign However, it is a pity that there has journalist asked him, “Why is it been a long gap in high-level visit of Indian Prime Minister to Nepal.

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 66 For nearly 15 years, no Indian collapsed in 2008. But even after Prime Minister visited Nepal. I.K. six years of signing of the Peace Gujral was the last Prime Accord, the Maoist combatants are Minister of India to visit Nepal. Of only partially laid off under the course, voluntary retirement scheme. The visited Nepal in January 2002, but law and order situation in the the purpose of his visit to Nepal at country is still in fragile state. that time was merely to Armed groups have proliferated, participate in 11th SAARC particularly in the Terai region of summit. Nepal. Most of the industries are closed on account of Turbulence in Following the historical Peace growing labour Nepal Accord between the militancy, political instability, strikes, Coincidently, the government and the Maoists in 2006, the 239-year old bandh, inadequate last 15 years has supply of power been the most monarchical institution collapsed in 2008. But even and raw materials. turbulent period in Forced donations Nepal’s history. after six years of signing of the Peace Accord, the Maoist and abductions Official records combatants are only partially have plagued the show that 17,828 laid off under the voluntary entire society. people were killed retirement scheme. The law Because of the lack during the and order situation in the of employment Communist Party country is still in fragile state. opportunities at of Nepal (Maoist) Armed groups have home, the number lead People’s war proliferated, particularly in the of youth fleeing the between 1996 and Terai region of Nepal. country for 2006.There was overseas colossal loss of employment property and widespread (countries other than India) destruction of government schools, formed 600 per day until 2010, offices, roads and other which more than doubled to 1,500 infrastructural facilities in the in 2011-12. country during that time. Nepal’s Challenges Following the historical Peace Accord between the government The greatest challenge that Nepal and the Maoists in 2006, the 239- is facing today is the failure of the year old monarchical institution

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 67 Constituent Assembly to draft the Nepal recorded economic growth constitution. As it is well known, rate of 2.7 per cent in 2009-10; the elections for 601-member whereas during that period India’s Constituent Assembly were held rate of economic growth was 8.3 in 2008 to make constitution per cent and China’s rate of within two years. Yet the there is economic growth was 9.9 per cent. no substantial progress in constitution making despite the Though many of the schools, fact that the tenure of the colleges and universities have Constituent Assembly was been opened in Nepal, the quality extended several times in last two of the academic institutions is years. If the often questioned. They do not meet the expectations of Constituent Though many of the schools, Assembly is not colleges and universities have the students. So able to make been opened in Nepal, the there is a tendency constitution until quality of the academic on the part of many May 27, 2012 when institutions is often of the students to perhaps its final questioned. They do not meet pursue education the expectations of the in countries outside tenure expires, it students. So there is a would be a great tendency on the part of many Nepal. However, set back to political of the students to pursue certain stability in Nepal. education in countries outside country/countries Nepal. However, certain admit Nepalese According to World country/countries admit students not for Development Nepalese students not for imparting quality imparting quality education Report 2012, but for other political interests. education but for Nepal’s per capita other political income is as low as $490. Even in interests. Nepal's neighborhood, the per capita income in India is $1,340 – Issues of Concern between Nepal almost three times more than and India what Nepal does have. In 2010, Bangladesh’s per capita income Even after more than one-and-half was $640, Pakistan’s per capita decade of the signing of 6000 MW income was $1,050 and Sri Mahakali Treaty between Nepal Lanka’s per capita income was and India in 1996, it has not been $2,290. implemented. So much so that even the hydropower projects with Indian investments, including the

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 68 GMR Group working on 900 MW amounting to Rs. 73.4 billion. 4 Upper Karnali and Upper Furthermore, Nepal Rastra Bank Marshyangdi has been targeted sold $2.7 million in 2010-11 to buy despite the fact that the nation is IC worth Rs. 123.8 billion. In view finding acute load shedding of 14 of the shortage of IC, the Nepalese hours a day. At the moment, bankers have asked Nepal Rastra Nepal produces power to the Bank, the central bank of Nepal, extent of 692 MW in the summer to allow them to purchase IC season against the demand for 860 either directly from the market in MW. In the winter, the country Nepal or from across the border in produces only 393 MW of power India. The IC is in short supply in when the demand is 588 MW. Nepal partly due to the trade deficit with India and partly for its Some other joint venture projects demand to finance illegal imports between Nepal and India, mainly in the form of gold. Nepal including Dabur Nepal and Surya Rastra Bank directive allows Nepal have also been targeted. For banks to exchange IC up to IRs. last several years, no new joint 25,000 in a day or up to IRs. venture project has come from 200,000 in a month. But it hardly India to Nepal. Even those joint complies this directive. ventures which are in operation in Nepal increasingly feel insecure. Nepal’s trade deficit with India Unfortunately, the investment almost doubled from Rs. 121 climate in Nepal could not improve billion in 2008-09 to Rs. 218 billion despite the fact that Bilateral in 2010-11. The country imports Investment Promotion and goods worth Rs. 261 billion from Protection Agreement (BIPPA) India against its exports of Rs. 43 aimed at protecting investment billion to that country. was duly signed between Nepal and India on October 21, 2011 Of particular concern are the growing cases of duplication of The shortage of Indian currency popular Indian trademarks by (IC) has seriously affected trade some unscrupulous elements in and increased hardships to the Nepal. This not only harmed common people, travelers and Indian interest but also harmed consumers all along the Nepalese- the interests of Nepalese Indian border. In 2008-09, Nepal consumers. The Nepalese sold $1.5 million to buy IC consumers have had to

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 69 compromise with the quality of currency is smuggled through the such products, which is Nepalese territory to India each detrimental to their health. Cases year. of duplication of popular trademarks of India by the local Development of Nepal-India Nepalese companies are found in border region is neglected all all such areas as the soap, through the history, though it is of detergent, shampoo, adhesive, crucial interest to the growth of T.V. sets, hair oil, cosmetics, the two countries. Because of the powder, stationery, toilet paper, British legacy to keep this region furniture, textile and garment, underdeveloped, very little could footwear, vegetable be done by the ghee, oil, razor, Development of Nepal-India Indian government incense, medicines, border region is neglected all even after its toothbrush, through the history, though it independence for battery, fan, is of crucial interest to the the growth of the growth of the two countries. region. In Nepal, electric bulb, Because of the British legacy pressure cooker, to keep this region too, the rulers have tobacco, chocolate, underdeveloped, very little been reluctant in saving cream, could be done by the Indian developing the alcohol, Gutkha, government even after its peripheral border spices, Pan Masala, independence for the growth of region of the Terai the region. In Nepal, too, the for their own biscuits, rice, atta, rulers have been reluctant in etc. Such activities developing the peripheral vested interests. also create border region of the Terai for negative their own vested interests. In the pretext of environment for launching investment in Nepal. development work, there are NGOs, INGOs and Quite often, the cases of smuggling foreign missionaries that have of fake Indian Currency Notes been luring mostly the weaker through the Nepalese territory to sections of the population in Nepal India are published in the media, for religious conversion. If they are which by all accounts is counter- not tamed, it is likely that more productive and against the than half of Nepal’s total interests of both the countries. population would be converted There are reports that about Rs. into alien faith in next 20 years. 20 crore worth of fake Indian Such activities could have far

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 70 reaching implications on Nepal- new era of economic cooperation India relations in the long-term between the two countries. perspective. What is that India should do? Besides, certain groups of people in Nepal suffer from the notion of India could establish a few Delhi ‘small country’ syndrome vis-à-vis Public Schools in Nepal. Besides, India. They do not want to have academic institutions like that of any positive deal with India – be it Jawaharlal Nehru University, in water resources Indian Institute of Technology and or other sectors. Indian Institute of These are the India could establish a few Management could people who target Delhi Public Schools in Nepal. be established in infrastructural Besides, academic institutions Nepal. Even India facilities, including like that of Jawaharlal Nehru could establish hydro-power University, Indian Institute of medical colleges of projects in Nepal, Technology and Indian same standard as even at the cost of Institute of Management could the one established plunging the be established in Nepal. Even by this country at country in dark. India could establish medical Dharan. Besides, The government colleges of same standard as India might think has no control on the one established by this of opening elements who want country at Dharan. Besides, standard to make the India might think of opening journalism courses country hostage of standard journalism courses as as there is no any perpetual poverty. there is no any such institution such institution Even on the Indian throughout the Terai region of throughout the part, many of the Nepal. Terai region of bureaucrats Nepal. With the dealing Nepal suffer from ‘big opening of such country syndrome’ mentality. They world class academic institutions, take it for granted that Nepal much of the resources that are should do all at their command. In spent by Nepal on the education of fact, both the ‘small country the students in third countries will syndrome’ and ‘big country be saved. syndrome’ mentality among certain elite groups in Nepal and Since India has made outstanding India are detrimental to initiating performance in Information Technology (IT) sector, it could

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 71 establish its unit/units in Nepal. Goods thus produced in Nepal In 1996-97, India exported could be exported to India. software to the tune of $1 billion, Besides, the consumers in Nepal which increased spectacularly to would be getting products at the $23.4 billion in 2005-67 and $63 same price as it is available to the billion as of March 31, 2008. Indian consumers.

Prospects are also quite high for Nepal’s rate of economic growth the development Export largely depends on the growth of Processing Zones along the Terai infrastructural facilities. India, region of Nepal to take the therefore, should speed up the advantage of proximity factor with construction of its projects in India. Such zones, if established Nepal, which include along the dry port region and Postal/Hulaqi highway, Broad having backing of all the Gauze Railway line connecting infrastructural facilities as road, Jaynagar (India) to Bardibas rail and air connectivity, apart (Nepal) via Janakpur and Mechi- from the availability of electricity, Mahakali railway line, and raw materials and cheap labour, Kamala diversion project. India could accelerate the pace of could also speed up construction of industrialization and generate link roads connecting the Terai huge employment opportunities in region of Nepal with India along the country. Prospects are also such points as Janakpur-Pipraun- high for the growth of such Darbhanga, Japakpur-Bhitamore- industries in Nepal as Sitamadhi and Birgunj-Raxaul- pharmaceuticals, water resource Motihari. Besides, Indian based ventures like water supply government could complete the and sanitation, fruit and vegetable work of Brihattar Janakpur processing, textiles, carpet, Parikrama Sadak (Larger garment and local handicrafts. Janakpur Circumbulation Road) that covers part of Nepalese In order to help Nepal reduce its territory and part of Indian balance of trade with India, there territory. India might also think of could be provision of free trade developing such religious cum with common tariff with India. historical regions of Nepalese With this development, many of Terai as Birat, Baraha, Salhesh, the Indian industries would make Simraungadh and Lumbini and further investment in Nepal. try to link them with the other

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 72 religious spots in Bihar and Uttar been trying to erode, if not Pradesh for the growth of religious eliminate, the age-old special tourism in both parts of Nepal and relations existing between Nepal India. and India.

India could talk to the Nepalese A Way Forward authorities for setting up a high level umbrella organization of the There is a tremendous scope for two countries improving government-to- “Nepal-India government level Border Authority” There is a tremendous scope cooperation with a view to for improving government-to- between Nepal and addressing such government level cooperation India at various problems as flood, between Nepal and India at levels. Considering drought, crimes, various levels. Considering India’s growing counterfeit India’s growing strength in strength in currency, economic front, the country economic front, the smuggling and needs to share part of its country needs to other such resources for the establishment share part of its activities along the of academic institutions of resources for the border region. excellence at all the levels from establishment of There should also school, college to the university academic be increased levels in Nepal. Both Nepal institutions of cooperation and India should see to it that excellence at all the between the the bottlenecks in levels from school, security agencies of implementation of hydro-power college to the the two countries projects, including in university levels in to address some of Pancheshwor project and Nepal. Both Nepal these problems. Upper Karnali are removed. and India should see to it that the Both Nepal and bottlenecks in India should see to it that political implementation of hydro-power instability and weak socio- projects, including in Pancheshwor economic structure in Nepal project and Upper Karnali are should not give room to certain removed. Free trade area with external power/powers to have free provision of common tariff regime play in the country. Such foreign is established to address the powers in their game plan have problem of growing trade deficit

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 73 between the two countries. Work order to bring the war-torn and in the Indian aided projects in underdeveloped Nepal on the roads, rail and other sector is forefront of economic growth of speeded up. Focus is given to the South Asian countries through development of Nepal-India border cooperation at all the levels. Peace region by establishing high level and prosperity of Nepal is in best body such as “Nepal-India Border interest of India and therefore Authority.” However, the road India should extend all possible map for Nepal-India cooperation support to Nepal even if certain does not appear to be that smooth cost is involved in it. given the turmoil in Nepalese polity. Yet the Indian Prime back to content Minister Manmohan Singh should use his diplomatic acumen in

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 74 Recent Political Turmoil inside The Communist Party Of China - Dr. Binod Singh

The Downfall of Bo Xilai Before shifting to Chongqing, Bo Xilai was the commerce minister While the world is busy in finding of China (2002-2007). Earlier he a peaceful solution for Syrian has been at the helm of affairs in crisis, and saving the Euro Zone, the province of Liaoning. Mr. the world’s largest Communist Wang Dejinag, currently a vice Party of China (CPC) is currently premier has been assigned to look undergoing a power struggle after the Chongqing Municipality. where one of the most ambitious party leaders of Chongqing, Mr. The story unfolded when one of Bo Xilai was removed last week. the Vice Mayor of the Chongqing The outgoing Hu-Wen city, Mr. Wang Lijun was denied administration seems determined asylum when he entered the to clean the house before handing American consulate in Chengdu. 1 over the power to new generation Wang was the head of Chongqing of Chinese leaders in the late public security bureau and autumn this year. instrumental in cleaning the city from 3000 brothels and 100 of city This incident has generated a gangs. He was especially shifted huge debate behind the fire walls from Liaoning province (the den of on the Chinese internet. The all the major gangs in northern demise of Bo Xilai has been China) to the Chongqing termed as one of the most municipality by the leader Bo significant event after the Xilai, when the latter joined as the downfall of reform minded party secretary in 2007. Currently Chinese Premier Zhao Ziyang in Mr. Wang is under surveillance 1989. After all, Bo Xilai was seen and was not allowed to take part as the rising star of the princeling in the recently concluded NPC and group in China. He was the son of CPPCC sessions. He had applied Bo Yibo, another reformist leader for asylum fearing threat to his during the time of Deng Xiaoping. life by making him political * Dr. Binod Singh

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 75 scapegoat by certain leaders in the the city benefit facilities. He party. But why the United States, organized Red-Singing campaigns the only champion of human which had been popular during rights in the world, has denied the cultural revolution of Mao’s him asylum is yet not clear. time. What has evolved as Perhaps Vice President Xi Jinping Chongqing model in the recent was expected to travel to the media reports was bitten to dust United States on the invitation of in a fort night. The indication was Joe Biden. Giving asylum to Wang very clear in the Premier Wen’s would have given a quite wrong press conference on 15th March signal to the China’s president in- after the end of NPC session. In waiting. response to a question from AFP What will be the Currently Mr. Wang is under journalist, Wen fate of Wang Lijun surveillance and was not indicated very is very obvious to allowed to take part in the clearly that a any observer of recently concluded NPC and proper Chinese CPPCC sessions. He had investigation will Communist party applied for asylum fearing take place and law Politics. If not threat to his life by making will take its own executed, he will be him political scapegoat by course. charged with certain leaders in the party. serious crime of But why the United States, the Political Reform sedition and only champion of human rights not on the Cards conspiracy and in the world, has denied him may spend rest of asylum is yet not clear. On the issue of his life behind bars. democracy and But during his trial what all the popular elections in revelations he will make will China, Mr. Li Zhao Xing, the certainly decide the fate of many spokesperson for the 12th NPC & small or big party leaders. Mr. Bo CPPCC, made it very clear that it Xilai always liked the media lime is too early for China to go for light and since he shifted to direct election of its leaders, with Chongqing, he has been credited universal suffrage. China is the with major economic and social largest nation in the world and reform. He attempted to bridge the geographically it is very diverse. rural urban poverty gap by There are hundreds of villages still including the rural dwellers into not connected by any transport

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 76 communication. Currently the prevalent from the very beginning, Chinese society is also very as it is the nature of any political imbalanced economically; hence it party in the world. Some time it is is early for China to go for popular less visible, but some time it is voting. more when heads roll.

Now, what would the next course The Rise of Fifth Generation of political reforms in the country Leaders is not yet clear. But one thing is very clear that the Chinese In the fall of 2012, China will Communist Party is intolerant of undergo a major transition in any disciplinary leadership. Xi Jinping, China’s misbehavior by current vice whosoever it may China’s current vice president, president, is be. It is premature is expected to replace Hu expected to replace to conclude that Jintao as general secretary of Hu Jintao as the downfall of Bo the Chinese Communist Party general secretary of Xilai has already and as president of Chi¬na. the Chinese exposed the With this change comes a new Communist Party factional struggle generation of Chinese leaders, and as president of inside the party. the rise of “fifth generation”. Chi¬na. With this Earlier the false Seven out of nine members of change comes a news of Jiang the Standing Committee— new generation of Zemin (ex Chinese China’s most pow¬erful Chinese leaders, President) had decision-making body—will the rise of “fifth created similar also be replaced. generation”. Seven controversies but out of nine the party managed to get hold of members of the the editor of Hong Kong Based Standing Committee—China’s magazine, who is currently facing most pow¬erful decision-making trial. Bo many not find any body—will also be replaced. It is sympathizer in the top leadership yet too early to write an obituary who can openly come in his for the demise of Mr. Bo Xilai as support, but his demise will make he still continues to be a member sure that the party is united and of the politbureau. But it is clear still far from disintegrating as that he is out of the race for the some observers have predicted. nine-member standing committee Factionalism inside the party is members of the politbureau. Only

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 77 two members, Mr. Xi Jinping and As of now it seems that the Li Keqiang are confirmed, as they leadership transition in China will are all set to take over as be peaceful and will take place president and prime minister of later this year. But what kind of the country later next year. For governance this fifth generation of the rest seven members of the leadership will undertake and how standing committee, the they will keep the party intact is competition is still open. It is yet unclear. believed that the downfall of Mr. Bo Xilai will only make the case of back to content Wang Yang, party secretary of Guangdong province stronger.

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 78 Chinese Chequers - Vice Admiral (retd) Barry Barathan

hi lang, the latest addition to director of the opponent’s fate” - the PLA Navy has triggered Sun Tzu S speculation, concern, and some anxiety about what next by English Penetration of China China as America the lone super power and the supposed to be The first opium war of 1839 saw guardian of the Free World seems the subjugation of China in being to crawl into a fetal position into forced to award concessions to an embryo of self inflicted Great Britain. Hong Kong was economic woes. History teaches ceded, with ports of Shanghai and those who want to learn and hence Ghuangzou opened up to trade. it may be worth our while to seek The second Opium war in 1858 to look at China first and then its also resulted in Chinese defeat. Navy next More ports were opened up along with rights for foreigners to travel Historical Realities into interior China. To date the Chinese remember this with a China is an ancient civilization quiet but intense outrage. with a history of an occupation by Japan and, also subjugation by the Japanese Occupation English. China is also fairly insular despite various dynastic The rape of Nanking, Japanese divisions and sectarian influences. occupation of China in early 20th Its memory is long and never century during the Second World fleeting. Sun Tzu’s has been the War, was perhaps the darkest guiding light of the Chinese period in East Asian history. The leadership. Chinese claim to have lost around 25 million people in this conflict. It “Be extremely subtle to the point is replete with stories of of being formless. Be extremely unimaginable atrocities by the mysterious to the point of being occupying Japanese military. soundless. Thereby you can be the China is still quietly licking its

* Vice Admiral (retd) Barry Barathan - Distinguished Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 79 wounds. People’s Republican Country or in English; the People’s Republic of Communist China –Emerging China). It believes itself and in its Definiteness destiny with a resolve never to allow history to repeat the October 1949 is the watershed for aberration of occupation in its land the Chinese with the advent of that was after all between Communism. Whatever happened “Heaven and Earth” or did not happen, an emerging definiteness became the start The World did not take any point of Chinese rise in the 20th serious notice; The West flush century. In six decades the Middle with success in kingdom has World War II was arrived on the October 1949 is the watershed pre occupied with International for the Chinese with the the Soviet and arena. Its advent of Communism. Warsaw pact. Post leadership is Whatever happened or did not collapse of the consistent with a happen, an emerging Soviet Union, the constancy of definiteness became the start war on terrorism purpose. Mostly point of Chinese rise in the kept it on its toes. phlegmatic in style, 20th century. In six decades The East on an the Chinese polity the Middle kingdom has economic high, has osmotic ally arrived on the International though conscious of optimized its arena. Its leadership is China, was position in the consistent with a constancy of confident that the World’s stage. The purpose. West would guard World may not like its backwaters. It its posturing or its also believed that a backward new wealth but can no longer China would not pose any discount its positioning! Therein immediate threat. The South led remains the denouement of the by India and Nehru felt that red dragon. Panchsheel was the answer to Asia. The sixties changed all that The Middle Kingdom Response with the PRC carving out an independent path for itself away When the communists took power, from the Soviet style of the official name for China has communism and economic been “ZHONGHNA RENMIN strategy. The brief Indo-China GONGHEGUO” (Middle Glorious

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 80 1962 conflict changed the statics of wherever and whenever necessary, South Asia. India and Russia on is remarkable. China’s leadership one side with China Pakistan places the highest priority on aligned against them. The stability post the turmoil of the admittance of China in the UN Cultural Revolution of the 1970’s. Security Council, its military It internally uses an iron hand nuclear stature, growing global with an iron gauntlet. economic clout and de-recognition of Taiwan were all part of a well Sustained Strategy directed, and orchestrated Chinese strategy. China for now, seems China has framed its macro well suited to its objectives in the oligarchic China has framed its macro context of five-year leadership style of objectives in the context of five- plans, with clearly combining, osmosis year plans, with clearly defined targets and defined targets and policy of patient effort policy initiatives initiatives designed to achieve designed to achieve and optimizing targets with a high degree of targets with a high opportunity across accountability. It is unique, the span of that Communist China follows degree of International liberal economic policies with accountability. It is Relationships. Its flexibility. The recently unique, that enacted 12th Five-Year Plan maritime strategy Communist China that has shifted from the follows liberal is embedded within highly successful producer economic policies this approach. It model of the past 30 years to a believes its flourishing consumer society is with flexibility. The sovereign security an illustrious example. recently enacted lies in the Oceans 12th Five-Year Plan that has of the World. shifted from the highly successful Even a cursory analysis of the producer model of the past 30 Middle kingdom’s performance years to a flourishing consumer today highlights continuity and society is an illustrious example. constancy in: Aligned Policies A National Commitment to Stability Despite vastness of geography and immensity, all its policies are Its commitment to internal aligned with its strategy of stability even by use of force, sustaining itself in the long term

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 81 Liberal Economics impact on accelerated infrastructural growth. In six decades, it has displayed a strong economic dynamism with Education sound regulation and market reforms. Willingness to learn from China is well on its way to a, within and outside is a key knowledge- and industry based characteristic of its regimes economy. English, mathematics, openness to change. sciences, computer learning and history are part of Chinese schools Domestic Thrift and colleges. Literacy rates are growing rapidly. A domestic saving China is well on its way to a, knowledge- and industry based Chinese rate in excess of economy. English, universities now 50% has shielded mathematics, sciences, graduate more China from computer learning and history than 1.5 million external shocks. It are part of Chinese schools and engineers and has swelled the colleges. Literacy rates are scientists annually. foreign-exchange growing rapidly. Chinese universities now graduate The country reserves that has more than 1.5 million regularly sends its served China well engineers and scientists PLA officer in the and aided economic annually. The country guise of students to development. The regularly sends its PLA officer America, the West, Country now in the guise of students to Europe and Russia. stands ready to America, the West, Europe and Russia. Interestingly, more Interestingly, more absorb some of that PLA officers know Hindi than PLA officers know surplus saving to what India realizes. Hindi than what focus on internal India realizes. demand. Foreign Direct Investment Domestic Servicing and Consumption PRC attracts FDI. In 2010 the foreign direct investment in China Robust plans are afoot to increase was estimated to be around 106 both service and consumption billion US dollars and rising. In percentages of China with a stark comparison India’s FDI is salutary impact on its overall about 4.5 billion dollars. This GDP. Rural to urban migration is Huge FDI is the catalyst to its also on the increase with a positive accelerated growth.

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 82 Innovation and Cloning comprehensive National Power. It encompasses a maritime vision in China innovates and clones both the short and long term. The unmindful of IPR violations. Chinese understanding of short, China is fourth and rising in terms being around 30/40 years and long of international patent about 100 years. Embedded in this applications. Its research-and- is a resolve never to be occupied as development share of GDP is happened twice in their long projected to be 2.5 % by 2015, history. Its increasing Global twice of what was in 2002. It is reach is complimentary to this focusing on innovation-based idea. “strategic emerging industries” – energy conservation, new- It is subtly adopting a strategy of generation information influence and hold through, arms technology, biotechnology, high- transfer, military assistance, and end equipment manufacturing, aid in direct defiance of American renewable energy, alternative Global interests. It knows that its materials, and autos running on trade surplus with the latter alternative fuels. Its consciousness provides it a position of strength resource management strategy is and power to play then game and equally sound as evident in its guard its interests. R&D investment. A grand master in International An Evolving Military Strategy relationships the red dragon skillfully uses its ancient cultural “China is a riddle, wrapped in an instinct, its potent economic enigma and encircled, (as the strength, it’s rising military Internet gurus inform us) by The potential, nuclear weapons Great Firewall of China” Joel capability to let the World know Bowman that the China can no longer be taken lightly less alone ignored. This is integral in China’s mind set and its continuum of

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VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 83

Interaction with Mr. Michel Miraillet, Director Strategic Affair, Govt. Of France

s part of what could be Lt Gen Ravi Sawhney, a former described as an exercise in DG Military Intelligence and, A Track 1.5 diplomacy, Mr. General VN Sharma and General Michel Miraillet, Director NC Vij, both former chiefs of the Strategic Affairs in France’s Indian Army. Ministry of Defence, held wide- ranging and intense interaction Welcoming Mr. Miraillet to the with the VIF’s foundation, Mr. battery of policy Doval said that experts on March India’s strategic 1, 2012. The visit partnership with by Mr. Miraillet France was based ostensibly aimed at on a solid finding ways to foundation, broaden further the appreciating, in scope for strategic particular, the convergence between the two position adopted by countries. The panel of Indian France after the nuclear tests discussants was led by Mr. Ajit were conducted by India in 1998 Doval KC, Director VIF and and its support for India’s included, among others, permanent membership at the UN Ambassador PP Shukla, Joint Security Council. Painting India’s Director VIF, Mr. Vijai Kapoor, security scenario with a broad former Lieutenant Governor brush, he said that India lived in a Delhi, Ambassador Satish dangerous neighbourhood where Chandra, formerly Deputy terrorism, ethnic strife, drug National Security Advisor, trafficking, sea piracy and Admiral KK Nyaar, a former Vice proliferation of weapons of mass Chief of the Indian Navy, Shri CD destruction (WMD) etc. were Sahay, a former Secretary R&AW, posing grave threats to nation states. The ensuing interaction

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 84 which followed after a detailed The Indian side emphasized the presentation by Mr. Miraillet need for Europe to maintain its focused on the regional security arms embargo on supplies to situation including the broader China. West Asia region. The importance of close Indo-French Complexities in the present geo- understanding and partnership in strategic environment arising the face of new emerging mostly from Iran’s nuclear situations was the backdrop to a programme, unrest in the Middle substantive and detailed East, China’s aggressive posture exchange. in the Asia-Pacific region, Pakistan’s growing radicalization, Mr. Miraillet opined that while the eastward expansion of NATO, defence and civil-nuclear the European missile defence, and agreements as also technology a resurgent Russia were discussed transfers formed the base for both and debated extensively during the countries to work together in the interaction. The Indian the future, they also needed to interlocutors were of the view that share a common vision of the NATO’s apprehensions as regards world. He, however, underlined Russia needed to be re-assessed, the fact that unlike in the past as they stemmed from a mindset when the French perception of which existed during the Cold India was largely shaped by its War. In their opinion, Russia commercial and business could be leveraged effectively to interests, India is now become an important partner in increasingly viewed as one of the the Eurasian region. China, on the important stakeholders in other hand, could end up being a security. Mr. Miraillet also big winner in Afghanistan should outlined the Franco-British efforts the drawdown lead to a situation to consolidate their respective of a strategic vacuum there, a defence capabilities against the prospect fraught with serious background of growing implications not only for the US uncertainties in the global but also for the region as a whole. economy. Both sides agreed that asymmetries in the defence While agreeing to the fact that spending in the region could have there existed perceptional consequences that they would differences in certain areas, both need to work together to address. Mr Miraillet and the Indian

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 85 panelists evinced their keen desire perceptional differences, where to move forward in the they exist, between the two relationship. With investment in countries is to carry out sustained the Scorpene submarines for the dialogues at both the levels of Indian Navy and Rafale fighter diplomacy - Track I & II. Mr. jets for the Indian Air Force Doval appreciated Mr. Miraillet amounting to approximately USD for articulating his government’s 25-30 billion and another USD 2 perceptions on several key issues billion a year in maintenance for in a forthright manner. both over the next twenty years, India certainly is committed to a Report prepared by Mr. Sanjay Kumar strategic partnership with France on a long term basis. One of the best ways to narrow down the back to content

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 86 Vimarsha: A Talk On ‘Functioning Of Parliamentary Democracy In India’

he focus of VIF’s Vimarsha journalist, and also a Senior (a series in monthly talks Fellow at the foundation sharing T on subjects of national the platform. Dr. Subhash C. importance with contemporary Kashyap, well-known constitution relevance) for the month of March expert and the former Secretary- 2012 was ‘Functioning of General of Lok Sabha, Mr. AK Parliamentary Democracy in Verma, Ex-Chief RAW, Mr. Ved India’, a subject Prakash which has Marwah, former agitated minds Governor of of a large section Manipur, of the people in Mizoram and our country in Jharkhand, and recent times. Mr. Vijai The talk by Mr. Kapoor, former Purno A. Lieutenant Sangma, a Governor Delhi veteran politician from India’s were among few important northeast and an erstwhile luminaries who attended Mr. Speaker of the Eleventh Lok Sangma’s talk at the VIF. Sabha was attended by a group of Mr. Doval’s incisive remarks, well-informed citizenry which parts of his welcome speech, set comprised, among others, the tone for the evening’s members of academia, former discussion. The quality of a nation high-ranking civil-military is largely determined by the type officials, and media personnel. The of discourses which usually take evening session was chaired by place in that nation, Mr. Doval Mr. Ajit Doval KC, Director VIF said. He remarked rather ruefully with Mr. A Suryaprakash, a noted

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 87 that some of the recent discourses trend for India’s democracy. He in the public domains of India also supported the proposals for were often a poignant reminder to the Right to recall and the Right to the crumbling of India’s vital reject as being necessary for the institutions. The erosion of sustenance of parliamentary people’s faith in these institutions, democracy in India. It is especially the Parliament, does not unfortunate that parliamentarians bode well for the future of our resort to disturbing the country. He also felt strongly that proceedings in the Parliament it was imperative to restore the often to address their own narrow people’s faith in the Parliament of constituencies. Unlike in the past India or else our significant when the financing and achievements as a vibrant functioning of all the important democracy would be lost. ministries were discussed in the Budget Session of the Parliament, Known for his genial persona and a new trend has emerged over the a smile that never deserts him, past ten-fifteen years. The federal Mr. Purno A. Sangma was clearly budgets of India are being passed visibly perturbed at the growing by the Parliament without any political instability in India. A ministry being discussed at all. Member of Parliament for nine times, Mr. Sangma first entered Mr. Sangma expressed serious the Lok Sabha in 1977 when the concern that the biggest challenge rule of a single party ended. facing India today is the crisis of Ideally, Mr. Sangma should have national leadership. Even worse, contested five general elections the elected members of Lok Sabha during the phase from 1977 to the can’t even reach a consensus to present. Instead he had faced nine choose a Prime Minister who is a general elections. member of the Lok Sabha. Failures in reaching a consensus Mr. Sangma felt that the higher among the elected representatives frequency of general elections in has often led to a situation where India, besides being a burden on the Prime Minister had to be the exchequer, was a worrying chosen either from the Rajya

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 88 Sabha or from among the Chief Confidence Motion which is Ministers of the states, a trend always backed the naming of an which began with Mr. Deve Gowda alternative candidate for the post and continues to the present of Chancellor. He remained Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan equally upset with the growing Singh. A veteran parliamentarian, levels of corruption, particularly at Mr. Sangma insisted that electing high places. While he favoured the a Prime Minister from the Lower idea of an anti-corruption House of the Parliament remains watchdog Lokpal, he said that the one of the key responsibilities of Prime Minister should be kept out the elected MPs. of its purview. However, corruption needed to be tackled In so far as the current state of with a firm hand as it was political instability in India is destroying the vitals of our concerned, Mr. Sangma went on to system. suggest the idea of a national government with both Congress That Mr. Sangma’s talk generated and the BJP sharing power for the lively interest among the audience sake of stability. Although Mr. was clear from the barrage of Sangma did not support the idea questions thrown at him. He of Presidential form of answered all the questions with government, he said that direct his usual calm and deftness. The election of the Prime Minister Vote of Thanks was proposed by could be a better option. Not Mr. A. Suryaprakash. happy with No Confidence Report prepared by Mr. Sanjay Kumar Motions which could create further instability, Mr. Sangma suggested back to content the German model of a No

VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 89