Issues & Options April - 2012 Issue: I No: IV Constitutional Promises - Still a Dream Betrayal of Trusteeship Indo – Pak Back Channel Uncalled For Sri Lanka: An Area of Vital Interest and many more …. Published By : Vivekananda International Foundation 3, San Martin Marg, Chanakyapuri, New Delhi – 110021, [email protected], www.vifindia.org Contents Articles Worrisome Trends For National Parties An Insider’s Perspective 51 3 - A. Surya Prakash - Kanwal Sibal Need To Review The Constitution Voting Against Sri Lanka 60 11 - RNP Singh - PP Shukla Trusteeship And Trust Better Government To Government 20 Efforts Needed To Rejuvenate - Dr. M.N. Buch Nepal-India Relations 65 Indian Maoists: The Extent Of Their - Hari Bansh Jha External Linkages 30 Recent Political Turmoil Inside The - Dr. N. Manoharan Communist Party Of China 75 Analysing India’s budget For 2012-13 - Dr. Binod Singh 36 - Dr. V. Anantha Nageswaran Chinese Chequers 79 Balochistan On The Boil, Pakistan In - Vice Admiral (retd) Barry Barathan Denial 40 - Sushant Sareen Events 84 Resumption Of India Pakistan Back Interaction with Mr. Michel Channel Talks: An Uncalled For Move Miraillet, Director Strategic Affair, Govt. Of France - Satish Chandra 47 Vimarsha: A Talk On ‘Functioning Of Parliamentary Democracy In India’ 87 VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 2 Worrisome Trends For National Parties - A. Surya Prakash he two main national of 56.50 per cent in Uttar Pradesh. parties – the Congress and In 2012, their share of the votes is T the Bharatiya Janata Party down by about 3 per cent. This (BJP) - are going to take a long still looks like a decent figure time to digest the bitter medicine because the BSP is classified as a that has been administered to national party. If not, the share of them by the electorate in the national parties would be just 28 recent assembly elections held in per cent. Similarly, there is a five states. Apart from the fact marginal drop of about 2 per cent that these election results have in the vote share of national once again shown the declining parties in Punjab as compared to popularity of national parties, they 2007. have also shown that these parties are no big attraction for the youth It was clear during the run up to and women, especially in Uttar the election in Uttar Pradesh that Pradesh. the Congress and the BJP were fighting for the third and fourth The Election Commission positions. The two parties have classifies the Congress, BJP, the lived up to the general assessment two prominent communist parties, of their electoral strengths. But the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) what should be disquieting for and the Nationalist Congress both the parties is that out of the Party as national parties. These 403 assembly constituencies in are parties which cross a this state, the contest was mainly minimum threshold of votes in at between these two parties only in least four states. In the Lok Sabha 11 seats namely Mathura, election held in 2009, national Bilaspur, Govindnagar,Tamkuhi parties secured 63.58 per cent of Raj, Suar, Varanasi Cantt, the vote, with a good chunk of the Varanasi South, Kidwai Nagar, remaining 36 per cent going to Lucknow Cantt, Pharenda and state parties. In the assembly Saharanpur Nagar. In most of the elections held in 2007, the assembly segments, the fight was national parties had a vote share mainly between the Samajwadi * A. Surya Prakash - Senior Fellow, VIF VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 3 Party and the BSP and this left than before, the Samajwadi Party the two main national parties in stormed into the urban citadels of dire straits. A high percentage of these two parties. candidates (around 60 per cent) belonging to these two parties In 2012, 13.70 million new voters have forfeited their deposits and were registered in Uttar Pradesh, several of them have suffered as compared to 2007. Secondly, humiliating defeats. For example, since the voting percentage shot in Bah constituency, out of the up this time, 23.90 million more 1.83 lakh votes polled, the votes were cast in this election Congress secured 2411 votes and compared to 2007. In Punjab and the BJP, 2131. This means each Uttarakhand also, the number of party got just over 1 per cent of voters went up by 11 lakhs and the total votes polled! There are 3.80 lakhs respectively. But the many such examples. In Aliganj, most interesting and intriguing bit the BJP has polled less than 1 per of statistic which should interest cent of the 1.96 lakh votes polled. political pundits is that in all the The Congress has done marginally five states which went to the polls better with 4 per cent of the votes. – Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Again, in Akbarpur, the Congress Punjab, Goa, and Manipur - the managed just 4 per cent and the percentage of women who voted BJP less than 2 per cent of the this time was higher than that of 1.72 lakh votes polled. There are men by 2 to 3 per cent. The dozens of such examples, which difference was the highest in Goa. show how irrelevant the two In that state while 79.67 per cent parties had become in this of male voters exercised their election. The BJP also lost franchise, the turnout of women Ayodhya, a seat held by the party voters was 85.97. This means that continuously for 20 years. both first time voters and women found the Congress and the BJP The disappointment is certain to not worthy of support in Uttar be much more when these parties Pradesh. The BJP can feel good take into account the following that the new voters and women factors: This election saw a huge have given it and its ally the jump in first time voters; a higher thumbs up in Goa and Punjab. percentage of women voted in The Congress can similarly see these elections; and although Manipur, which witnessed a there are more urban seats now similar trend, as a consolation VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 4 prize. But the truth is that none of made inroads into many other this can obliterate the disturbing urban constituencies. message from Uttar Pradesh for these two parties. Yet another phenomenon that is certain to disturb the electoral Following the delimitation of base of the two main national assembly and Lok Sabha parties is the emergence of the constituencies in 2008, much of Peace Party of India (PPI). This the imbalance in the spread of party, launched by Muslims, made constituencies and total electors its debut only in 2009 and is now was corrected because the slowly but surely creeping up the Delimitation electoral ladder. In Commission this election it has decided to redraw Yet another phenomenon that bagged four Vidhan the boundaries is certain to disturb the Sabha seats and based on electoral base of the two main secured 2.35 per population. This national parties is the cent of the votes. also meant a jump emergence of the Peace Party But, the vote share in urban of India (PPI). This party, could be misleading constituencies in launched by Muslims, made its because of the all states. After debut only in 2009 and is now impact of its this Commission slowly but surely creeping up presence in 10-15 completed its task, the electoral ladder. In this per cent of the the BJP was happy election it has bagged four constituencies. The because there were Vidhan Sabha seats and data put out by the more urban secured 2.35 per cent of the party in its website constituencies now votes. is interesting. It than before. The won 4 seats, stood Congress too was pleased because second in three, third in 8 and it felt the Rahul spell would work fourth in 25 seats. In other words, in the urban areas and bring in the Peace Party has influenced the more seats. But the recent election outcome in this election in at least in Uttar Pradesh has changed all 40 seats. The website says the that. The Samajwadi Party has party over 50,000 votes in three made a confident entry into urban constituencies. It secured 20,000- pockets. For example, in Lucknow, 50,000 votes in 15 seats and 8000- it has edged out these parties in 25,000 votes in 52 seats. This is three of the five seats. It has also how the BSP started out in the VIVEK : Issues and Options April – 2012 Issue: I No: IV 5 late 1980s and if this trend that together these two parties continues, the Peace Party will obtained 30.10 per cent of the make elections in Uttar Pradesh a popular vote. As against this, the five-cornered affair some years BJP secured 33.10 and the from now. The party’s website also Congress 14.40 per cent votes. In made the following observation other words, the two national which could be of value to political parties commanded 47.50 per cent analysts – “ Besides winning four of the vote in that state. In 2012 seats and securing second position one sees a neat reversal of this at three places PPI has influenced situation. The BSP (25.91) and the results of at least SP (29.15) together 61 other garnered 55 per constituencies Apart from the poor cent of the vote, where it secured performance of the Congress whereas the BJP ( more votes than Party, the 2012 results also 15.00 ) and the winning point to the declining influence Congress ( 11.63) margin”.