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Market-Update-Q1-2019.Pdf Commercial & Residential Market Update Q1 2019 Market Update Q1 2019 | Contents 01 The Economy 02 West End Letting Market 03 West End Investment Market 04 City and City Fringe Letting Market 05 City and City Fringe Investment Market 06 National Investment Market 07 Commercial Auction Market 08 Business Rates 09 Residential Development Market 10 Residential Investment Market 11 The Build to Rent Market 12 Residential Auction Market Market Update Q1 2019 | Economic Overview The political stalemate continues over Brexit, Goldilocks zone, not too hot to create inflation and with the withdrawal date now extended warranting a rate rise, and not too cold risking to 31 October 2019 this could leave us with a a recession. Summer in limbo as the uncertainty remains. Parliament has so far failed to find an answer In terms of the real estate markets, both and as we approach the 3rd anniversary of the residential and commercial, these remain Brexit vote there is little clarity over the way active but thinner on the whole with many forward and the nature of our future relationship participants on the sidelines watching and with the EU. It is however possible that a softer waiting for the uncertainty to pass. The political consensus will emerge. residential market is tight and despite the most recent ONS statistics for February Meanwhile despite these challenges and a showing house price growth of 0.6% in global slowdown the UK economy paces February, the lowest since September 2012 onward. The economy is growing and, despite and a fall in London, there is a growing the cautious forecasting, economic progress forward view amongst the investment is being made. The Government expects community that we are at, or near, the growth of 1.2% for 2019 and 1.4% for 2020 bottom. which is fairly uninspiring but with the possibility of perhaps a slight bounce if a consensus is In general terms, there are many transactions reached and a Brexit deal is finally done. occurring, often underpinned by sturdy occupational markets or discounted pricing Whilst economic growth is on the low for opportunity and risk (particularly in the side other indicators in early 2019 are retail sector) and life carries on. The Allsop mildly positive. According to the ONS, teams, across the board, remain very busy. unemployment fell to 1.34 million, or 3.9%, in the 3 months to February which is the lowest rate since 1975. Wage growth continues at an estimated 3.4% and inflation has fallen again to 1.9% in March easing the income squeeze. The upshot for interest rates is benign with expectations for no change to the current rate Whilst economic growth is on the low of 0.75% for now and a stable outlook. So in general terms, Brexit aside, UK plc is faring ok, and in reality the economy is not far from the side other indicators in early 2019 are mildly positive | Market Update Q1 2019 Market Update Q1 2019 | West End Letting Market The opening quarter of 2019 has undoubtedly combined total of 150,000 sq ft of new felt like a more restrained West End leasing commitments at 25 Wilton Road and 127 market, with many small and medium sized Kensington High Street. businesses notably exhibiting more trepidation about committing to new, traditionally leased The vacancy rate in the West End remains office spaces. As such, the number of stable at 4% of total stock. Whilst we are not transactions completed this quarter has been anticipating any rental growth this year it is amongst the lowest we have seen for the clear that current and impending supply will last five years. However, this continues to sit not be able to keep pace with existing demand contrary to the statistics for the amount of levels and as such a shortage of supply of space let, with larger space takes continuing to Grade A office space should result in rental dominate the market. The trend for larger Tech/ increases moving forward into 2020 and 2021. Media organisations and Serviced Office space providers to secure new leases has continued. These occupiers are seemingly undeterred by the current political uncertainties having taken over 50% of space taken in Q1 (30% and Overall take up 20% respectively). The remaining 50% has been evenly spread amongst the Financial, for the quarter Government and Energy sectors. Overall take up for the quarter totalled c 1.1M sq ft totalled c 1.1M and the amount of space under offer remains substantially above the long term average. As such it is reasonable to assume that leasing sq ft and the activity should continue apace into the second quarter of the year and in the event of more amount of confidence returning to smaller occupiers as a result of Brexit certainty, take up figures could space under improve dramatically. Examples of these larger transactions offer remains undertaken this quarter include Sony securing a substantial pre-let in Kings Cross at S1, 4 substantially Handyside Street of 125,000 sq ft, Facebook securing an additional 175,000 sq ft in Regents above the long Place, NW1 and Spaces (Regus) taking a term average | Market Update Q1 2019 Market Update Q1 2019 | West End Investment Market For the first quarter 2019, the West End team to investing, domestic and European investors recorded a total of £1.0Bn either exchanged or have sought to capitalise on the absence of this exchanged and completed in 19 transactions. overseas competition in the market and this quarter This is broadly in line with Q1 last year, and 2018 accounted for 14 of the 20 transactions. Investors have significant finished with a relatively strong investment volume of £7.6Bn across 130 transactions, significantly In terms of supply, there were over 20 sales capital allocations ahead of the £6.8Bn 10 year average we have launched during the first quarter, amounting to just recorded. However, 2018 was some way behind under £1.0Bn of supply. We interpret there being at for London, but are the peak 2013 - 2015 years (2015 saw a record least a further £3Bn of stock either already available £9.3Bn) perhaps suggesting that, coupled with or technically withdrawn but where the vendor the Brexit investment slowdown, we are reaching would still sell. largely waiting for a a natural end to the investment cycle as, globally, a general slowing of the economy is experienced. We highlighted in our last market report the trend resolution on Brexit for a higher than usual proportion of buildings Despite this, similarly to the City market, momentum built towards the end of the quarter in being freehold or virtual and this has continued into before committing to the West End with March transacting the highest 2019 – virtually all the buildings launched this year figures of the quarter in terms of both number of have been freehold - symptomatic of much of the transactions transactions and transaction volume, suggesting investment demand coming from overseas and that irrespective of the Brexit uncertainty, and private investors. its eventual outcome, London remains high on an investor’s wish-list due to the market’s At this point, it is impossible to predict whether transparency and liquidity fundamentals. 2019 will see strong volumes particularly in light of the Brexit ‘flextension’ failing to be a real game The dominance of large transactions has changer to the current uncertainty. Certainly there is continued with two transactions making up nearly investment stock available to buy, and through our half the Q1 volume: Allsop represented Columbia relationships with Citi Private Bank largely targeting Threadneedle in the c £200M sale to Ashby Middle East capital, plus Millennium Group in Hong Capital of 127 Kensington High Street and The Kong focused on Asia capital, we are aware of a Kensington Arcade, and M&G purchased North large number of investors with capital allocations Wharf Gardens (Hotel) in Paddington for c £205M. for London, and the wider UK. London investment returns look relatively attractive compared to Whilst the market does feel relatively quiet in many key global “gateway cities” but the Brexit terms of demand from overseas investors, who uncertainty does continue to constrain buyers. are largely adopting a “wait and see” attitude | Market Update Q1 2019 Market Update Q1 2019 | City and City Fringe Letting Market Whilst there has been continued uncertainty Liverpool Street. We Work also continued its over the economy with Brexit now extended to expansion in the City Core for its HQ concept 31st October 2019, City office demand remains taking 34,000 sqft at Dixon House, 1 Lloyds strong for both the City core and City fringes. Avenue (Allsop advised MAPFRE), together with 12 Moorgate, Minster Court and 40 Mitre Employment remains high although growth Square, all in the last month. is likely to reduce over the next few years with reduced corporate expansions Total take up for the quarter was 1.2M sq ft, and consolidation. Outside of London down on Q4 2018 which stood at 1.8M sq ft In the run up to Britain’s manufacturing and retail employment has been and the long term average of 1.4M sq ft. 39% hit hard in recent months. of take up was for new Grade A stock. ‘divorce;’ with Europe, now The global drive to develop ‘Artificial Take up in the second quarter is expected Intelligence’ a skillset routed in the emerging to increase due to the significant number of extended to 31st October companies based in the City fringes continues occupational enquiries, demand and under to lead to further demand from the technical offers. These include Quilter, 100,000 sq ft 2019, City office demand and media industries.
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