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Shopping Centre and High Street Spotlight

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Shopping Centre and High Street Spotlight UK Commercial – Q1 2019 Shopping Centre and SPOTLIGHT Savills Research High Street Spotlight Retail environment remains mixed Interest amongst opportunistic investors grows Shopping Centre and High Street Spotlight 6.6% 6.6% UK retail sales growth rate in March 2019 on a year-on-year basis UK retail consumer and Estimated year-on-year UK store sales growth in March 2019, on a rolling occupational trends 3-month basis Retail sales are holding up but it’s the rising costs of servicing online platforms that’s really shaping occupational demand Consumer confidence is clearly feeling the effects of online and has been reflected in retailer trading Brexit uncertainty having reached its lowest level in statements. E-commerce retail sales, on a value 2.7% five years in December, albeit February did see a one basis, reported a 12.4% growth in March year-on-year point improvement. However, the read through to whereas store sales growth was estimated to have retail sales has been minimal. Retail sales volumes grown 2.7%. The positive is that this is growth off a increased 6.6% in March year-on-year, its highest much higher base and does point to an upward trend increase in 28 months, reflecting an upward trend on a rolling 3-month basis. that first materialised in November which places There is no doubt that migrating spend online, current growth well ahead of that seen in the 12 plus structural shifts in spending habits towards months immediately after the EU Referendum. more leisure and experiences, will reduce store An acceleration in real wage growth, supported requirements with the fashion sector more exposed by slowing inflation, has been key to this as well as than others. But, the biggest immediate challenge is Year-on-year real wage a certain degree of consumer ambivalence to Brexit its impact on costs and margins. In their latest annual growth in February 2019, mirrored in the consumer confidence measure statement Next noted that for every £1 that migrates on a rolling 3-month holding at the same level for the last three months. to their online platform there is an additional cost basis How long real wage growth, and in turn retail sales of six pence. Yet, at the same time they noted the growth, can be sustained will be dependent on wider important role their store network plays in servicing economic conditions in a post-Brexit scenario, which their online business and mitigating these additional at this point is hard to call. costs. These increasing costs were reflected in a small softening in Next’s operating profit with a It’s cost, not growth, of online that is similar trend seen across a number of other fashion shaping occupational demand retailers that have expanded their online platforms. 1.5% While the overall retail sales data paints a positive In contrast, Primark, who have no online presence picture much of this growth can be attributed to reported a 25% growth in Group operating profit. Despite weak consumer confidence, Q1 UK retail sales continue to improve reaching 4.8% YoY in March 2019, on a rolling 3-month basis, in terms of volume of sales Retail Sales Vol 3mnth ave yr/yr Retail Sales Vol LT average Real Wages 3 mnth ave yr/yr Retail Sales Val 3mnth ave yr/yr Consumer Confidence (excl. internet) 10 8% ) 5 6% ave 0 4% -5 2% -10 -15 0% rolling (3mnth yr -20 / -2% yr -25 Consumer confidence Consumer -4% -30 -6% -35 Retail sales Retail -40 -8% Jul 11 Jul 17 Jul 12 Jul 15 Jul 13 Jul 18 Jul 16 Jul 14 Jul 10 Mar 11 Mar Nov 11 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 06 Jul 09 Mar 17 Mar Mar 12 Mar Mar 15 Mar Mar 13 Mar Mar 18 Mar Mar 16 Mar Mar 19 Mar Mar 14 Mar Mar 10 Mar Nov 17 Nov 12 Nov 15 Nov 13 Nov 18 Nov 16 Nov 14 Nov 10 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar 06 Mar 09 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 06 Nov 09 Source Savills Research; ONS; GfK savills.com/research 2 Shopping Centre and High Street Spotlight Shopping centre landlords are pursuing more flexible terms in order to minimise vacancy. Weaker shopping centre rents under the Average lease length (years) LOOKING AHEAD The biggest challenge most significant downward pressure 2018 Q1 2019 These rising costs and weaker margins are reflected 10 occupationally going in recent leasing activity. Utilising Savills retail 9 forward is not the deal activity across the UK, including new lettings, 8 consumer environment extensions and assignments, we have examined 7 but rather the expected leasing and rental trends. What this analysis 6 increase in CVA activity. 5 highlighted is that it is shopping centres, in particular For some retailers 4 secondary weaker centres, that are currently more struggling with declining 3 exposed with landlords pursuing more flexible terms margins as a result of a 2 poor offer and/or rising with larger incentives in order to minimise vacancy. length lease (yrs) Average 1 While UK shopping centres reported a small costs linked to online 0 increase in average lease lengths to 6.3 years in Q1 Shopping Centre High Street UK average platforms, entering into 2019 on its 2018 average, rent free periods increased a CVA can be key to by two months to 7.5 months. This is in line with the survival. For the more cynical in the industry, average rent free’s secured on high street lettings, Average rent free (months) but has resulted in a more significant impact on net CVA’s are a quick way effective rents. Average shopping centre net effective 8 to reduce costs. rents agreed in Q1 2019 declined by 33.2% compared 7 Whatever your viewpoint, with more with the 2018 average. In contrast high street net 6 effective rents largely held with only a 0.1% decline on CVA’s expected to come 5 its 2018 average, albeit we expect rental declines were to the market in 2019 largely factored in prior to 2018. 4 there will be further However, this decline in shopping centre net 3 downward pressure on effective rents masks the disparity that exists 2 rents. This year is forecast to be the nadir between the weaker and stronger centres. At the 1 weaker end, on a like-for-like basis, some centres have (months) free rent Average for rental value declines 0 with the All UK retail seen declines of between 40-60% in Q1 2019 versus Shopping Centre High Street UK Average the 2018 average. In contrast stronger centres have forecast from RealFor seen net effective rents increase by an average of suggesting that positive rental growth will not 3.9%. Net effective rental trends return to the market (Q1 2019 vs 2018) Who’s been acquisitive in 2019? until 2022. In terms of deal count over Q1 2019 the top five 20% As seen with recent retailer subcategories, as outlined below, remain leasing activity it will be 10% largely unchanged to 2018. Fashion (including weaker retail locations specialist menswear and womenswear stores) has 0% that will be more -0.1% overtaken F&B to account for the majority of new exposed with strong lettings in the first quarter of 2019. -10% retail markets/centres likely to outperform the Where we have seen a shift is the entrance of -20% charity stores into the top five, on very short terms, All UK average no doubt reflecting the challenges facing occupational -30% supported by stronger demand and landlords preference to reduce vacancy. 2018) 2019 change vs % (Q1 occupational demand. -40% However, this demand Unsurprisingly there are no stand out retailers who Shopping Centre High Street UK Average are being particularly acquisitive nationally. That will become more mixed being said Lidl, B&M and Oliver Bonas are rumoured with the dominance by Source Savills Research to be looking to add to their UK portfolios in 2019. Note: Based on Savills UK retail deals, excluding London & SE fashion retailers to wane as the growth in online penetration is forecast to be the strongest in Top five retail subcategories by deal count (Q1 2019) this part of the market (35% of fashion spend to be online by 2023). Considering that returns are more of an issue for 14.4% 12.4% 8.2% 7.2% 7.2% fashion retailers there will still be a strong case for brands to maintain a physical presence, what Fashion Stores Food & Drugs & Hairdressers & Charity Stores this will look like may be Beverage Toiletry Beauty Salons where we see the most Source Savills Research significant change. 3 Shopping Centre and High Street Spotlight Opportunistic investor interest in retail is rising. High street shop investment was 9.6% down YoY but central London was 134% Investment Overview up on Q1 2018 Investor sentiment towards retail property in the UK 8,000 remained firmly negative in the first quarter of 2019, with 7,000 the average prime yield on 6,000 retail property rising from 5.35% at the end of 2018 to 5,000 Q4 5.40% at the end of Q1 2019. 4,000 Q3 This means that the prime £m retail yield has risen nearly 3,000 Q2 100 basis points from its 2,000 Q1 most recent low point in Q1 2015. 1,000 While the yield softening 0 in some retail subsectors has been even more significant than this, prime shop yields Source Savills Research are only 2bps higher than their long-run average, and prime shopping centre UK retail investment market yields are still 20bps lower than their average.
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