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AC Vol 42 No 15

AC Vol 42 No 15

www.africa-confidential.com 27 July 2001 Vol 42 No 15 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL 2 NIGERIA I Politics dead or alive The ruling PDP joins the electoral 2003 starts here race with a commanding lead. The The coming elections are about the survival of Nigeria’s federation most exciting development is the as much as President Obasanjo’s career formation of the National Democratic Party, partly funded Two years before the next national elections, decision-making comes a poor second to political by General Babangida, which is manoeuvring – and that threatens the few recent successes in reforming the mismanaged and corrupt tipped as his vehicle for a campaign economy. Worse, electioneering may jeopardise the sensitive negotiations over Nigeria’s federation against Obasanjo. of states. In the south, the clamour is growing for a national conference about devolving power to the regions and states; in the north, there are fears the region would lose out economically if the NIGERIA 4 federation were weaker. President is cautious about all this. He was known to oppose a national Murder, pillage, constitutional conference, preferring to give the job to the wayward National Assembly. His allies scandal now say he is willing to consider a conference, both to help the ruling People’s Democratic Party’s electoral position and to slow down the centrifugal forces pushing for radical constitutional change, Questions are being asked about if not for breaking up the federation. The limits of the federation are being tested even without a President Obasanjo’s relations with Generals Babangida and national conference. Abubakar, who have been excoriated by witnesses to the Federal strains human rights tribunal chaired by ● Twelve oil producing states want the 13 per cent of oil earnings to which they are constitutionally Justice Oputa – and have themselves been summoned. But entitled to cover offshore as well as onshore oil production, yet the federal government wants to might the portrayal at the tribunal quash this in the Supreme Court. The suit, which is to be heard in September, will be the most of army officers as clowns, thieves important test of the Court’s independence under the Obasanjo government. Government lawyers and psychopaths provoke a military will insist that the derivation or revenue-sharing formula (13 per cent of state oil revenues) applies response? only to onshore oil production, which is a fast diminishing share of total production. ● Most of the north’s 19 states have adopted a code of criminal law based on Sharia (Islamic law), FRANCE/AFRICA 6 which may be unconstitutional and is clearly against the wishes of the federal government. The state governments protest that this doesn’t infringe on the rights of dissenters or non-Muslims but Hunting lobby Christian associations strongly oppose the move. Violent confrontations on the issue left more than Efforts by Premier Lionel Jospin’s 2,000 people dead in last year, hundreds more in other states. Many supporters of Sharia centre-left government to reform complain about the inability of the police and judicial system to deal with rising crime. France’s Africa policy have been ● Armed robbery and instability in southern states has given rise to vigilante gangs and militant spurred by a raft of scandals such ethnic associations such as the Bakassi Boys in eastern Nigeria and the Oodua People’s Congress in as Angolagate. Spearheading the the south-west, which often victimise other ethnic groups and have sparked dangerous clashes. financial reform is Jean-Michel Severino, the new head of the There have been alarming press reports that Hausa traders are storing weapons in for ‘security French aid agency who is reasons’ but wilder stories about northern vigilantes receiving military training in neighbouring determined to depoliticise aid and states have been dismissed. Others worry that incumbent state governors may use the vigilantes as open up agricultural markets. political thugs during election campaigning. ● State governments are trying to run their economies autonomously. Several are borrowing on ZAMBIA 7 capital markets; government wants to float a 25 billion naira (US$254 million) bond to fund capital projects. The federal government is losing control of macro-economic policy and the Post-summit blues central bank wants to bar state governments from contracting major domestic liabilities without consultation. Proceeds from the latest mobile telephone licensing round are being divided between President Chiluba’s hosting of the OAU has been followed by a series feds and states, as are oil windfall payments. This gives extra funds to state governors who are more of political crises: the loss of a key concerned with re-election than with the long-term effects of public spending on the naira’s stability by-election, the beating of a former or on interest rates aide and an embarrassing The main concern for most politicians is whether Obasanjo will seek a second term in 2003. His defamation case. advisors offer contrary views but most believe he will run – leaving an official announcement as late as possible, to keep his rivals guessing. He would then have to jump once more through the PDP’s POINTERS 8 nomination hoops. Some loyalists have already started campaigning in their home regions for his re-election. Eastern ministers (Transport) and Kema Chikwe (Aviation) started at Sudan/Kenya, the beginning of July. The Yoruba Council of Elders endorsed Obasanjo despite scepticism from Somalia & Eritrea sundry Yoruba nationalists. 27 July 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 15 Politics dead or alive The ruling People’s Democratic Party, with 209 of the 348 seats in the his prime. Some claim that , until recently Secretary National Assembly and 59 of the 103 seats in the Senate, enters the electoral General of the Commonwealth, is presidential material but he would not be race with a commanding lead and all the advantages of incumbency in the ready by 2003. Of the upcoming governors and senators, Governor presidency and several state governorships. The All People’s Party, with 74 Chimaroke Nnamani of Enugu State is taken seriously. The more populist seats in the Assembly and 24 in the Senate, and the Alliance for Democracy Orji Kalu of has ambitions but also a past that might not stand with 68 and 20 seats respectively, are deeply fragmented and demoralised. up to investigation. Nigerians want a reordering of the political landscape. Yet even if the new The politics of the southern oil-producing states – the south-south – will electoral law is passed in September and it permits new parties to be formed, be affected by the Supreme Court battle over off-shore oil revenues. If the the PDP’s opponents have not got much time to put together cohesive Court decision goes in their favour and Obasanjo’s federal government national parties. gives the south-south states 13 per cent of oil revenue from the offshore sea- The PDP, whose backbone is the People’s Democratic Movement of the bed, influential Delta members will probably stay in the PDP. If they lose, late Shehu Musa Yar ’Adua, will be hard to stop, in spite of its own internal many prominent south-south politicians will walk out of the party. Whether divisions. There was a row last year when PDM candidate Barnabas they can coalesce into a united movement against is another matter. Gemade won the party chair over , candidate for the more In the south-south states, some of whose peoples are bitter rivals, it would conservative north. Amid allegations of rigging, Awoniyi was expelled, be hard to present a common front or a common candidate. Peter Odili of along with party stalwarts including Bamanga Tukur from Adamawa has aspirations beyond his state; Donald Duke of Cross Rivers State, a founding member of the PDP and also a former state governor and is said to want to be Atiku’s Vice-President. minister. Awoniyi now leads National Frontiers (NF), an association that In the south-west, the PDP has recently secured defections from the AD has renamed itself National Democratic Party in the hope of being registered by three senators and representatives. In Lagos and Ogun states, where the in September. PDP did badly last time, Obasanjo’s increased popularity could give it a few The PDP’s main parliamentary challenger in 1999 was the APP, an odd senatorial seats and governorships against incumbent governors who are amalgam of Abacha-era politicians and radical opponents of President determined and well equipped to stave them off. Olusegun Obasanjo. The Alliance for Democracy is so divided that it has Vigilantism is the big new danger. Governor Bola Tinubu of Lagos State two executive councils, one backed by the mainstream Yoruba cultural has suggested that the Oodua People’s Congress, a Yoruba association association, Afenifere, and one closer to President Obasanjo’s camp. Bola banned by Obasanjo for inciting ethnic violence, could be deployed in Ige, the Attorney General, has a foot in both camps as deputy head of Lagos to fight crime; Tinubu could then employ it for political purposes. Afenifere but also the President’s leading AD ally. The Bakassi Boys, deployed to fight crime in Abia and Anambra states, The NF/NDP hopes to bite off disaffected factions from the AD and PDP could turn into private militias at the service of Governors Orji Kalu and and swallow the APP whole. The NF/NDP has also been courting cultural Chinwoke Mbadinuju. Members of the Assembly drew and ethnic associations – Afenifere; Ohaneze, its Igbo counterpart in the pistols during a debate on law and order. Mbadinuju, the original champion east; the , its newer equivalent in the north; and of the Bakassi Boys, faces a group of wealthy inhabitants determined to the Union of the Niger Delta, a loose association of southern oil-producing unseat him. A bomb exploded in the Bayelsa State Assembly last month, minorities led by Chief Albert Horsfall. The NF/NDP has also had after a dispute between Governor Diepreye Alamieyeseigha and the meetings with members of the National Solidarity Association, which has impeached house Speaker, Heineken October Lopkobori. In , championed General and hopes to become a broad- Governor is becoming too popular and independent for based national party. Much of the debate is about the federal system and the liking of the old Kwara kingmaker, Olusola Saraki. some of those negotiating political alliances propose a national conference There are fears that a lethal cocktail of rising criminality, a failing on the constitution. economy and political and religious militancy could prompt widespread Of the three dominant ethnic groups – Yoruba, Hausa, Igbo – the Igbo violence at the polls. When elections were mismanaged by incumbents in have the strongest grievance, claiming that they have been marginalised for 1983 and 1965, the army stepped in within months. When Obasanjo took 30 years. Igbo moderates say it is their turn to be president; extremists talk over, the army was discredited and it has since been sufficiently shaken up of separatism. There is no common Igbo position and no credible national to stave off any imminent threat. Yet electoral chaos along with fears that figurehead. The one-time separatist commander, Chief Chukwuemeka the federation could fall apart and jeopardise hundreds of millions of dollars Ojukwu, has almost no support elsewhere. Alex Ekwueme, the former of oil investment might see support for the generals’ return from the Vice-President whom Obasanjo beat to the PDP candidacy in 1999, is past boardrooms of some of the bigger oil corporations.

The most obvious alternative to Obasanjo would be the Vice- refinery, handled by Sahara Energy Resources Ltd., of which his President, . In early July, posters supporting his son, Tonye Patrick Cole, is a director. Cole had made enemies in candidacy for 2003 were displayed in Abuja. Atiku quickly disowned Obasanjo’s kitchen cabinet, led by Otunba Fasewe, an unofficial them; his allies say the posters had been distributed by political resident at the presidency who handles business affairs requiring foes, to sow dissension in the presidency and the PDP. the utmost discretion. The dismissal last month of former diplomat Patrick Dele Cole President Obasanjo’s many political foes include disappointed as International Affairs Advisor may weaken Obasanjo. Cole was PDP chieftains, the increasingly assertive governors of several of one of the few advisors willing to tell Obasanjo unpleasant truths the 36 states, most leaders of the fragmented opposition Alliance and would ‘take a bullet’ for him. He was behind some important for Democracy and the All People’s Party, and the numerous decisions: the low-key response to Sharia in the north and the political and ethnic associations that demand the right to form new parallel attempts to stem rising demand in the southern states for political parties. control of resources. He was unceremoniously sacked on his return to Nigeria from a party in London attended by 15 southern state Obasanjo and IBB governors, which Obasanjo had criticised. Cole’s friends say he Nigeria’s best resourced politician refuses to show his hand. was there to watch events for the President, as some of the governors Multi-millionaire and former military leader General Ibrahim wanted to stop Obasanjo standing in 2003. Cole’s sacking was Badamasi Babangida has been asking his Nigerian and foreign hastened by a controversy about crude oil for ’s Tema friends whether he should challenge Obasanjo for the presidency. 2 27 July 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 15

There is much speculation about the relationship between the pair. wasted. Above all, Nepa needs fast government investment. The understanding they had before the 1999 elections looks battered Nepa, or part of it, is meant to be sold to private operators. Before but Obasanjo still fends off demands for Babangida to be that poisoned chalice goes on offer, the government wants to sell a investigated and prosecuted for corruption (see Nigeria II). It is majority stake in the state telephone company, Nitel. Obasanjo mysteriously claimed that Babangida met the United States hopes to push the privatisations through this year, to avoid the Secretary of State Colin Powell in Washington in June, just as election run-up. At least 16 companies claim some interest; most Obasanjo was meeting President George W. Bush. Babangida still have Nigerian money, about six look serious. These include Telekom has many fans among US corporations interested in Africa. Malaysia, Korea Telekom, Orascom (Egypt) and France-Télécom. Most of all, Obasanjo has worries about his own two years at the Officials claim that privatising Nitel will raise at least US$2 bn. but head of a fire-fighting, rather than a reforming, government. After markets are moving against telecommunications sales and industry being sworn in on 29 May 1999 (AC Vol 40 No 12), he was knocked experts are talking about only $500 mn. Anything under $1 bn. off course by the violent sectional frustrations built up under 20 would be trouble for the government and a gift to the Nigerian years of military rule – militant attacks on federal government and Labour Congress, which opposes privatisation. oil company officials in the Niger Delta; growing calls for secession among Obasanjo’s own as well as from Igbos The final frontier and other items (whose previous attempts at secession precipitated the 1966-69 Beyond the telephones and electricity are wider matters of economic civil war); and the adoption of Sharia criminal codes in northern management: making the reforms work, speeding growth, reducing states. inflation and interest rates. Spending the earnings from the recent Obasanjo is feted abroad but his stock is falling fast with the rise in oil prices has caused problems. The 2001 budget pushed country’s notoriously fickle voters. Trying to drum up foreign public spending up to N2,200 bn. ($18.3 bn.) or 56 per cent of gross capital, he travels obsessively, at the expense of pressing domestic domestic product for all three tiers of government. It looked as if the problems. In the last three weeks, he has been in Lusaka, Brussels, government was trying to buy its way out of trouble. Last year, Genoa, Zanzibar and Beijing. Back home, the basics are stubbornly money supply grew by 43 per cent and by 27 per cent in the first five unchanged – no water in the taps, light in the light-bulbs, tone on months of this year; official figures from the end of May put inflation the telephone lines. Nigerians face long queues for fuel, corruption at 23 per cent. With the naira falling sharply and the International is rampant. Nor has the government consolidated the necessary Monetary Fund complaining, Obasanjo put the brakes on spending democratic institutions. The three political parties are torn nationally in all contract awards. by ethnic and regional in-fighting and locally by personal rivalries. The government wants to extend its standby agreement with the Money, not performance in office, will determine electoral IMF till next February, winning time to fulfil conditions it has so far success at all levels of government. Charges against local failed to meet. The Fund insists on publication of a value-for-money government leaders account for well over half the 40 or so cases audit of the budget and on monetary reforms to close the gap awaiting attention from Mustapha Akanbi, Chairman of the anti- (running at 20 per cent) between the parallel and official rates of corruption commission. The Independent Electoral Commission exchange. It also wants to push capital spending well below the chaired by career diplomat Abel Guobadia looks ill-prepared to N480 bn. budgeted for this year. Yet if Obasanjo continues to hold tackle the usual skullduggery, rigging and intimidation. There are up spending (which includes $93 mn. for Nigeria’s space programme still none of the independent national radio stations or functioning and a N148 bn. supplementary budget for ‘other items’) opposition mobile phone networks that can report electoral fraud which in the Assembly will increase again. If he lets spending rip, the naira helped Senegal and Ghana to run much fairer elections last year could collapse and inflation soar in the run-up to the elections. (AC Vol 41 No 5 and Vol 42 No 1). The economic pressures are building. Food prices are rocketing: the price of gari (cassava) has doubled this year. Deliveries are held Re-election strategy up by transport bottlenecks and regional shortages. Consumer Obasanjo’s re-election strategists, headed by the omnipresent Works imports are delayed by the worst congestion in the ports since the and Housing Minister and State House insider Tony Anenih, are 1970s. The rising cost of living prompts strikes in the energy said to have a plan of which the priorities are: reforming the reviled industry and beyond. Slow growth and unemployment boost crime and ridiculed state-owned Nigerian Electric Power Authority and sustain the vicious circle: instability and low growth because (Nepa); a new deal over oil revenue and state resources with the there’s no investment, while investors will not risk capital in what south-eastern states; reshuffling more effective ministers into they see as an unstable, low-growth economy. senior positions; ensuring the PDP’s national and state committees Much will depend on Obasanjo’s opponents. If Babangida stands, renominate Obasanjo unanimously; and countering opposition the contest could be close. In the absence of other strong candidates, from ethnic and political associations such as Afenifere (Yoruba), Babangida’s supporters think he could take most of the north and Ohaneze Ndigbo (Igbo), Arewa Consultative Forum (northern) and most of the Igbo vote in the east, if he picks an Igbo running mate. the younger (under 50) state governors. He might even do well in the oil-producing Delta states, if he can Obasanjo has staked his reputation on electricity. Nepa’s work with the more savvy local politicians and afford lavish performance has if anything got worse since Obasanjo’s election. ‘expenses’. Schemes intended to improve supply by next year include a Vice-President Atiku’s followers say he would be stronger against controversial independent power project in Lagos by Enron of the Babangida than Obasanjo. He would divide the north and win votes USA, upcoming contracts with Shell and AES for Nepa’s thermal in the south-east and south, while much of the south-west is unlikely generating plants in Delta and Rivers states, and an independent ever to vote for Babangida after the annulled 1993 election. In turn, 500 megawatt project with Italy’s Agip. Meanwhile, hundreds of Babangida might run in 2003, if he fears that Atiku (who owes millions of dollars of state expenditure on Nepa’s rickety Babangida few favours and whose wealth is growing fast) would be transmission networks should ensure that less of the extra power is unstoppable by 2007. 3 27 July 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 15

Some of Babangida’s allies believe he is increasingly determined the presidency as political currents turn against Obasanjo. Certainly, to run; campaigning by his followers is now more than symbolic. evidence before the Oputa Panel may strain political alliances between Others believe he is keeping the country guessing, to influence the Obasanjo and wealthy members of the Association of Retired Military outcome even if he is not the candidate. A possible deal with Officers who, many believe, helped catapult Obasanjo from gaol into Obasanjo might involve his dropping Atiku as his running mate. State House in May 1999. Above all, Babangida wants to avoid harassment and prosecution Television addicts were entertained by the Commission’s early in the post-Obasanjo era. sittings, featuring the rambling pronouncements of Gen. ’s For now, the political arena is in disarray. Obasanjo’s PDP is the former head of security, Major Hamza Al-Mustapha. Widely blamed only coherent party but many associations are seeking registration for the worst atrocities under Abacha’s regime, Al-Mustapha is said to as political parties. To qualify, they must win at least 10 per cent have triggered a crisis for Gen. when interrogating him of the vote in local government elections in 24 of the 36 states. An about his alleged involvement in a coup against Abacha in December electoral bill drawn in consultation with the Independent National 1997 (AC Vol 39 No 2). Mustapha told Diya that he had incontrovertible Electoral Commission is to be tabled in the National Assembly in evidence of his involvement in the plot. He added that he had been September. A front-runner in the registration race is National taught in North Korea to ‘administer death in instalments’ and that he Frontiers, one of the many associations said to be backed by regarded death by firing squad (the usual punishment for coup plotting) Babangida, together with his military and political network. On 24 as ‘mercy killing’. Diya then lost control of his digestive system and July, NF announced it was changing its name to the National the interrogation was adjourned. Democratic Party and had incorporated a wing of the Yoruba Such detailed allegations about the absurdities and atrocities nationalist Afenifere into its ranks. Eight years ago, Moshood involving senior officers have further damaged the military’s reputation. Abiola ran for the President on the ticket of the Social Democratic Officers have been repeatedly characterised as ‘clowns’, ‘thieves’ and Party in a political race policed by Babangida as military head of ‘psychopaths’ in media reports on the Panel. A former Chief of Naval state. The annulment by Babangida’s regime of Abiola’s victory Staff, Vice-Admiral , said that if true, the allegations in the 1993 elections tipped the country into prolonged crisis. Only to the Panel were a disgrace to the military. Yet he added that those in Nigeria could a candidate such as Babangida now be regarded as giving evidence should be ‘more guarded’ as they raised questions of a leading contender in a presidential election. national security and the image of the military. Indeed, some fear that public ridicule of the military could prompt a counter move, even from serving officers not directly connected with the events investigated. NIGERIA II Operation Bang still free The current Chief of Army Staff, Maj. Gen. Alex Ogomudia, has Murder, pillage, scandal repeatedly ignored summonses from Justice Oputa to present Colonel Hashim Abubakar to the panel for questioning about the shooting of Military men are portrayed as clowns, thieves a civilian in 1998. The civilian was allegedly shot dead by a army- and psychopaths in a human rights tribunal police patrol known as ‘Operation Bang’. A police investigation Mountains of facts, many of them highly inconvenient to present and connected Abubakar to the killing but lack of cooperation by Abubakar’s past governments, are emerging from Nigeria’s Human Rights senior officers has blocked efforts to interrogate him. Violations Investigation Commission, the home-grown copy of South The major political cases before the Panel are the sensational deaths Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission. It was set up by of three notables, , Ken Saro-Wiwa and . President Olusegun Obasanjo’s government to investigate human A further question is how Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves, rights abuses by past military regimes, under the chairmanship of a estimated at US$9.7 billion when Abacha died in June 1998, were former Supreme Court Judge, Justice Chukwudifu Oputa, and is reported as just over $7 bn. when Abubakar took over the presidency inevitably known as the Oputa Panel. From 10,000 petitions received, – and how the Abubakar regime, in 11 months of power, spent over $3 it has selected 200 cases of alleged human-rights abuses; the Judge bn. of that $7 bn. (AC Vol 40 No 8). says he will make his report to the President by the end of this year. Chief Abiola, the Yoruba candidate, won the presidential election Obasanjo is likely to run for a second term in 2003. The big political in June 1993, was imprisoned by Abacha in June 1994 and stayed in question is whether two of his predecessors – General Ibrahim gaol until a month after Abacha’s death in June 1998, when he Babangida (1985-1993) and Gen. (from suddenly died (AC Vol 39 No 14). Dele Giwa, a popular journalist and June 1998 till he handed over to Obasanjo in May 1999) – will answer co-founder of magazine, was murdered by a parcel bomb the Commission’s summons to give evidence. Obasanjo emerged in October 1986. The Police Commissioner who investigated the financially and physically damaged from prison in 1998 and arrived death wanted to interview two senior security officials, Brigadier quickly in the top job. Many, especially in Lagos, where hostility to , Director of Military Intelligence, and Col. A.K. Togun, the northern military regimes was outright, believe that Babangida second-in-command of the State Security Services. The policeman supported Obasanjo for the 1999 election with the expectation of was promptly transferred and the case was closed. As for the Ogoni future favours. martyr, Ken Saro-Wiwa, the Commission will seek to establish That suspicion was reinforced this month when Obasanjo said he whether the Anglo-Dutch Shell Petroleum company played any part ‘would not be blackmailed into probing Babangida’. Sceptics think in his arrest, detention and hanging in November 1995, along with Obasanjo more likely to be pressured into not probing Babangida and eight other Ogoni activists (AC Vol 36 No 23). Shell officials are to wonder how, on a general’s salary, Babangida could have built the testify before the Oputa panel. grand edifice where he lives at Minna in , let alone financed The most damaging testimony about Abubakar has come from Brig. a high-technology printing plant in Abuja and other multi-million Ibrahim Sabo, Abacha’s Director of Military Intelligence. He dollar investments. Now it seems Babangida may be a contender for claimed that, on taking power after Abacha’s sudden death, Abubakar 4 27 July 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 15 Who’s who in the military plots The following dramatis personae have key roles in events scrutinised ● Major Gen Patrick Aziza (Delta) by the Oputa Panel: Former General Officer Commanding of 2nd Division, Ibadan, and ● General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (Niger State) Commander of Lagos Garrison, Aziza was a trusted aide of Abacha’s. Nicknamed ‘Maradona’ for his political survival skills, Babangida He chaired the military tribunal that sentenced Obasanjo and Shehu was Head of State from August 1995 to August 1993. He annulled Musa Yar’Adua to life imprisonment for plotting against Gen.Sani the June 1993 election after Yoruba candidate Moshood K.O. Abiola Abacha. had won it. Babangida promised to end corruption and human rights ● Maj. Gen. Abdulkarim Adisa (Kwara) abuses but his regime is accused of some of the worst abuses. A Minister for Works and Housing and Governor under multi-millionaire, he has been sounding out opinion about a Abacha, Adisa volunteered to campaign for Abacha’s election as presidential campaign. civilian president. After he was sacked as Minister, he turned against ● Gen. Sani Abacha () Abacha and was arrested for coup plotting with Diya. Took power in a bloodless coup in November 1993 and died suddenly ● Lt. Gen. (Kebbi) on 7 June 1998. His regime is regarded as even more corrupt and Chief of Army Staff under Abacha and Abubakar, he is said to have brutal than Babangida’s and is blamed for undermining the military lured Diya and others into a coup plot and then betrayed them to and the economy. Abacha. He is also alleged to have ordered a military intelligence ● Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar (Niger) agent to torture Diya for being ‘indiscreet’ and is also alleged to have Head of State after Abacha’s death; handed over to elected President personally tried to kill another of Abacha’s aides. Olusegun Obasanjo on 29 May 1999. Previously regarded as a ● Lt. Gen. (Abia) relatively ascetic Muslim and professional officer but now faces Chief of Army Staff under Obasanjo (AC Vol 42 No 9) and former allegations of grand corruption and incompetence at the Oputa Panel. Commander of West African peace-keeping force in , he told ● Lieutenant Gen. Oladipo Donaldson Diya (Ogun) the Oputa Panel he was proud to wear a badge with Abacha’s image on Chief of General Staff in Abacha’s regime, he unsuccessfully it. He chaired the tribunal that sentenced Diya and Adisa for plotting campaigned for its acceptance by his fellow Yoruba. He was arrested against Abacha. Obasanjo told Malu to resign after the two clashed in December 1997 for plotting against Abacha then released by the over policy. Abubakar regime. ● Maj. Hamza Al-Mustapha (Kano) ● Brigadier Ibrahim Sabo (Kaduna) The much-feared chief security officer of Gen. Sani Abacha is standing Director of Military Intelligence under Abacha, Sabo played a key trial for torturing oppositionists and for plotting the assassination of role in detecting and (some say) inventing plots against his boss. His Chief M.K.O. Abiola’s wife, Kudirat Abiola. Hamza Al-Mustapha evidence to Oputa drags the reputation of some senior officers played a key role in unravelling alleged coup plots by Gens. Obasanjo, through the mud. Yar’Adua and Diya. ‘exhibited an accumulated and accentuated thirst for money’ and before he died and that Abiola also choked, jerked, foamed and died. promptly ordered Buba Galadima, Director of the Nigerian Maritime Assistant Superintendent Iheodore Sadaun, popularly known as Authority (the most important source of government revenue after the ‘Zadok’, who was Abiola’s chief security man and food taster, told the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation) to release 5 bn. naira ($49 Commission that, on the day of Abiola’s death, he was ordered by million) to named officials. Galadima said it was beyond his power to radio to go and see the Chief of General Staff, Admiral . do so. That same afternoon, soldiers took him to an unknown On his return, the Chief Security Officer, Maj. A.S. Aliyu, told him destination and told him to resign; he refused and Abubakar fired him. that ‘Chief M.K.O. Abiola was not feeling fine...’ Abiola had been in Sabo alleges that Abubakar was to be given $18 mn. of the money and a meeting with United States’ officials, the Under-Secretary of State he tendered documents which, he claimed, proved it. Thomas Pickering and the Assistant Secretary of State for African Sabo told intricate stories about how Abubakar was to profit from Affairs, Susan Rice, when he collapsed (AC Vol 39 No 14). Zadok the printing of New Naira notes and from a scam on the contract for continued: ‘I quickly went inside and I saw Chief M.K.O. Abiola lying feeding Nigerian troops on service with the peace-keeping force of the on the floor, face down. I called him. The first time he answered, and Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group I lifted him up and turned him upside and called him again. But the (Ecomog). He claimed that ‘parting gifts’ worth N1 mn. ($0.5 mn. at second time he did not answer.’ He was soon pronounced dead. the time) were decided upon for each member of the governing Former Police Commissioner for Lagos State Abubakar Tsav gave Military Council. Yet when Sabo joked about it with two of them, they evidence about Dele Giwa’s death on 19 July 2001. He complained said they had received only $50,000. He explained how more than that throughout his investigation, he was unable to interrogate Akilu $2.5 bn. in foreign reserves under Abacha had been abstracted by or Togun, though Akilu had talked by phone to Giwa’s wife on 18 Abubakar by raising the contract price for renovating Eagle Square in October 1986 and to Dele himself the day after, just before the parcel- Abuja from N230 mn. to N2.3 bn. and siphoning off the extra cash. bomb was delivered. Akilu is alleged to have asked Mrs. Giwa for their Other vast fiddles involved the purchase and renovation of a house Lagos home address as he had been planning to call in on his way to Kano. in London, the maintenance of military aircraft bought from Germany Tsav said: ‘The sophistication with which the letter parcel was and other items of military procurement. After Sabo had finished his prepared and the use of a sticker with Nigerian Coat of Arms coupled allegations, Obasanjo called in Oputa for consultations. Abubakar’s with the inscription ‘From the Office of the C-in-C’ suggested that the relations with Obasanjo are critical; it was Abubakar who released government was involved or even sponsored this devilish scheme.’ Obasanjo from custody and encouraged him to run for the presidency. He added details of circumstantial evidence, claiming that all his Sabo claimed that the former Chief of Army Staff, Maj. Gen. Ishaya attempts to investigate had been frustrated. He concluded: ‘It is Bamaiyi, had suggested, after Abacha’s death, that ‘Chief Abiola therefore safe to conclude that the case was suppressed in order to should be similarly killed to balance the equation.’ Bamaiyi was shield the perpetrators of this evil from prosecution. This would not alleged to have made the same point to Mustapha. Sabo told the have been possible if the Federal Military Government of Gen. I. B. Commission that Abacha choked, jerked and foamed [at the mouth] Babangida did not know about the callous killing of Dele Giwa.’ 5 27 July 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 15

on Maghreb and Islamist questions) under investigation and President FRANCE/AFRICA Jacques Chirac’s family facing interrogation by magistrates, everybody agrees that, whoever wins next year’s presidential and parliamentary elections, the reform process will continue.

Hunting lobby No regrets A new generation breaks through in Paris but Even in traditionalist military circles there is little nostalgia for the old the money no longer flows freely ways. The professionals – soldiers, officials, development specialists – resent the way in which corrupt politicians and business people The last relics of colonialism are at last being swept out of Paris. For tarnished France’s image and alienated opinion among younger decades, French-speaking Africa was regarded as the chasse gardée, Francophone Africans (AC Vol 42 No 14), also undermining French the private hunting-ground; now the lead is taken by officials striving public support for development aid. In the 1970s and 1980s, possibly for a more ethical, or at least more modern, foreign policy. France’s as much as a tenth of aid to some African countries found its way back main aid agency, the Agence Française de Développement (AFD), into the coffers of French political parties. Tough new accounting gets a central role in devising new approaches to assistance for poor rules introduced by Prime Minister Alain Juppé (1995-97) and French regions, including Africa, where France is still the largest single judges’ new-found self-confidence, may have ended all that. bilateral donor. The ministries of Finance and Foreign Affairs are Foreign Minister Hubert Védrine is thought to have little interest drafting its mandate for development strategy, in the shape of a formal in Africa, other than as a way of backing his enthusiasm for a defence lettre de mission to Jean-Michel Severino, AFD’s new head. partnership with Britain. Yet when Britain’s Foreign Secretary Jack In September, Guy Azaïs, Ambassador for the French-inspired Straw, appointed in June, could not make a joint visit with Védrine to African peace-keeping scheme called Renforcement des Capacités Mali and Nigeria – a trip planned for his predecessor, Robin Cook – Africaines de Maintien de la Paix (Recamp, ‘Strengthening of Védrine went ahead anyway. He was keen that Nigeria, which at first African Peace-Keeping Capability’, AC Vol 42 No 10) will tour saw the Recamp programme as a threat to its own West African European capitals to bring in France’s European Union allies. predominance, should stop distrusting French motives and join the Modernisers are driving forward both wings of this fresh approach to effort to build up the regional peace-keeping capacity of the Economic Africa policy, demanding a greater focus on practical development Community of West African States (Ecowas). Naturally, too, Paris is and a strong European dimension. The aim is to give teeth to the policy happy to cultivate business goodwill in a country which could become reforms launched in 1997, when Lionel Jospin’s centre-left a big customer for exporters and for service companies such as Saur, government took office and the old Ministry for Development Electricité de France and Vivendi, already active on the continent. Cooperation was abolished – a mainly political move, to break down Europe is central to the new Africa policies. French officials and the often corrupt personal connections between politicians in Paris soldiers recall with dismay the furious international reaction to their and in its former African possessions. Cooperation’s elegant town- Opération Turquoise intervention in Rwanda in 1994. French troops house in the Rue Monsieur ceased to be an independent power centre, intervened after the genocide had started, officially to stabilise the coming under the aegis of the Foreign Ministry on the Quai d’Orsay; situation and provide assistance to civilians. However, this was widely its job was defined as technical: delivering development projects seen as an attempt to protect the génocidaires and ministers and decided at ministerial level. officials were publicly interrogated by a parliamentary committee, a However, the political symbolism was not thoroughly carried into startlingly rare event in France. The challenge is to promote practice. In recent crises, notably in Congo-Brazzaville in 1997-99 democratisation and transparency without provoking resentment and and Côte d’Ivoire in 1999-2000, Paris has sometimes appeared accusations of neo-colonialism. Paris is perfectly prepared to use reluctant to live up to its advertised convictions, especially on Brussels as a shield when it reckons that it cannot conveniently democracy. There has been a reluctance to push Burkina Faso’s promote governance issues itself. Meanwhile, EU countries with less President Blaise Compaoré on human rights abuses or on charges that expertise in matters African often consult France (and Britain) on he has connived in arms-and-diamond dealing with Liberian President policy. The key tool is Article 96 of the Cotonou accord, signed in June Charles Taylor. Some officials privately acknowledge concern 2000 between the EU and the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) about these shortcomings but French policy is to oppose sanctions on states, which set out a clear procedure for suspending cooperation with principle, saying they would mainly hurt the people of Liberia. France governments that fail to meet key conditions of human rights, democratic suspended aid to President Gnassingbé Eyadéma’s regime in Togo principles and the rule of law. Under this agreement, Côte d’Ivoire was in the early 1990s but still provides small-scale training for his recently called to account over human rights abuses and it was the EU soldiers, on the grounds that it may make them less likely to commit presidency, then held by Sweden, that issued the damning public abuses. France joined Britain in formulating the EU’s Common criticism of Chad’s flawed election in May. In both cases, France Position on Africa in 1998; it legally obliged EU member states to take would not have wanted to take the lead. account of human rights and democratic pluralism in policy on sub- The Article 96 framework is also useful at home, as a cushion Saharan countries (though not North African or other Arab ones). between the government machine and politicians with lingering African Recent corruption trials – there are more to come – have given a new connections. For example, Guy Labertit, responsible for Africa in the momentum to reform of Africa policies. Results include convictions governing Parti Socialiste, is a long-time friend of Ivorian President for, among others, former Foreign Minister Roland Dumas, former Laurent Gbagbo. Equally based on European unity is France’s Elf-Aquitaine Chief Executive Loïk le Floch-Prigent and his one- partnership with Britain, in the European Rapid Reaction Force and, time General Affairs Director, Alfred Sirven. This is part of a general increasingly, in Africa (seen, with the Balkans, as a possible theatre of clean-up of French politics and helps to create a climate of opinion in action for the Force). Policy-makers stress the importance of partnership which the old conspiratorial réseaux (networks) cannot survive. With with Britain, where Ambassador Azaïs will make the first call of his such figures as ex-Interior Minister Charles Pasqua (once very active European tour in aid of Recamp. France wants other European 6 27 July 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 15 governments to participate, perhaps by providing or even storing had defected to the FDD, is also damaging the MMD. Tembo’s allies equipment, but London is seen as the natural lead partner. Partly to organised large, embarrassing, protest marches against Chiluba during placate Britain’s pro-American leaders, Paris is anxious to keep the the summit. The Secretary General of the newly formed FDD, General US involved in Africa; it was pleased that Secretary of State Colin Christon Tembo, predicted the murdered Paul Tembo would worry Powell went there soon after his appointment and hopes his interest Chiluba ‘like Banquo’s ghost haunted Macbeth’. Chiluba insists there may outweigh the isolationist influences on President George W. is no evidence linking the MMD to the murder. Scotland Yard has now Bush. The USA may be offered a role in equipping Recamp and, to formally refused to investigate and the FDD is calling for an eminent strengthen the link with the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, it is persons’ group to look into the growing tally of political murders. already arranged that Canada’s Pearson Centre will work with the Another former Chiluba aide and prospective defector, Derrick Zambakro regional Recamp training centre in Côte d’Ivoire. Chitala, was badly beaten on 22 July; if he hadn’t fought back, he On aid and development, France is trying to develop some fresh might have been killed. Police have again made no progress in tracing ideas of its own. The idea is no longer to pour in money. The aid the assailants. And on 25 July, former Labour Minister and now FDD budget is unlikely to increase next year. The AFD’s 2000 aid budget chieftain Edith Nawakwi was arrested for announcing ‘Chiluba is a was 724.4 million Euros (US$632.3 mn.) and its grant element is only thief’ at a rally. She is due in court on 27 July on charges of defaming ¤300 mn. ($261.8 mn.) a year. The AFD may have to concentrate on the President, which carries a three-year gaol term and a mandatory a few target countries. In the Paris quarter of Bercy, the Finance bar from politics. Though it may keep her out of parliamentary Ministry, which takes the lead role on issues such as debt and structural politics, the case will again highlight the accountability of the adjustment, is preparing an overall policy document on aid, the presidency, following a failed opposition attempt to impeach Chiluba Mérieux report. The AFD’s Severino (formerly a Development for grand corruption. Director at the Cooperation Ministry, later East Asia Vice-President Chiluba automatically becomes OAU Chairman for a year. But at the World Bank) will suggest ways in which his department can fit under Zambia’s constitution, he must dissolve parliament by 6 in with the rest of the government machine. He has Socialist Party December and hold parliamentary and presidential elections within connections but insists that he will manage the AFD in a technical and three months. Current rules bar him from a third term but if he gives non-political way, on lines laid down by the Inter-Ministerial Committee up the presidency, he will have to give up the OAU chairmanship. on Cooperation, chaired by the Prime Minister. The AFD (answering To date, no sitting head of state has had to step down as OAU to the Finance and Foreign ministries) will devise strategies to meet Chairman. It will be hugely embarrassing if Chiluba uses the OAU development challenges, such as inequality in poor countries, the argument to support his campaign for a third term. Earlier this year, environment, North-South relations and how to liberalise cash-crop South Africa’s President worked hard to persuade him markets without destroying the support networks set up for peasant that an unconstitutional third term would damage Southern Africa’s farmers. The agency intends to test its policy ideas in small groups of image. Then Chiluba sheepishly appeared at a press conference beside countries; if they work they will be extended elsewhere within the Mbeki stating that he had no interest in a third term – but he has every general French aid system – and, if all goes well, they could be a model interest and has been working tirelessly to win it. Although he flies for other donors. kites about successors, no credible MMD candidates have been allowed to put their names forward. His ambitions have split the ZAMBIA MMD; some estimate that over half its 131 MPs in the 150-seat parliament could defect to the opposition, mainly the FDD. Amid the chaos, Vice-President Enock Kavindele declared he was the ‘right man’ to be MMD flagbearer in the elections. It is unknown Post-summit blues whether the statement was cleared with Chiluba who may wish to Everything is going wrong for President distract attention from his third-term ambitions. However, Kavindele, Chiluba’s renewed bid for a third term a wealthy businessman from western Zambia with a wide political network, would be a serious contender for the presidency. Vice- President Frederick Chiluba must be disappointed that the relatively presidents in Lusaka have had an unhappy history recently: Kavindele’s successful Organisation of African Unity summit in Lusaka has not two immediate predecessors fell out with Chiluba and now head immediately helped his subterranean campaign to win an opposition parties. unconstitutional third term in office. The Chiluba scheme, his allies say, was to present himself to Zambians as the conquering diplomatic Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com hero who would guide the OAU in its historic transition to the African Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at Union, a body modelled on the European Union (AC Vol 42 No 14). 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. But it hasn’t worked. Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. Copyright reserved. Edited by Patrick Smith. Deputy: Gillian Lusk. Chiluba has been afflicted by political crises during and since the Administration: Clare Tauben. OAU summit. Most damning was the defeat of the Movement for Multi-Party Democracy candidate in a by-election at Chawama, Annual subscriptions including postage, cheques payable to Africa Confidential in advance: central Lusaka, last week. Jeffrey Samukonga, a Lusaka businessman Institutions: Africa £289 - UK/Europe £310 - USA $780 - ROW £404 from the newly formed opposition Front for Democracy and Corporates: Africa £354 - UK/Europe £373 - USA $864 - ROW £466 Development, pushed the MMD into second place. Once it was clear Students (with proof): Africa/UK/Europe/ROW £83 or USA $129 he was winning, MMD thugs unsuccessfully tried to disrupt vote All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept counting. Several people in the counting hall were hospitalised. American Express, Diner’s Club, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 805, Oxford OX4 Chiluba later conceded he was upset by the defeat and blamed it on 1FH England. Tel: 44 1865 244083 and Fax: 44 1865 381381 poor party management. Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. The murder of his former campaign manager, Paul Tembo, who ISSN 0044-6483

7 27 July 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 15

import of Kenyan tea and coffee worth US$150 Osman Ato and Musa Sudi, who dispute control Pointers million a year. Kenyan papers had said its exports of Mogadishu with the TNG. During the latest to Sudan were worth only $5.25 mn. fighting there was an attack by Ato’s militia on The deal is also part of a campaign to woo a food convoy suspected of bringing in more SUDAN/KENYA African governments (this is how the NIF got arms for the TNG. on to the Human Rights Last month Ethiopia, which arms the SRRC, Commission in April) and to demonstrate to US finally persuaded the TNG to accept the principle Zero-rated interests, especially African-Americans and of inclusivity. This opened a way for TNG- others condemning slavery in Sudan, that it is SRRC talks despite objections by Djibouti’s Kenya’s role as Chair of the principle Sudan friends with black African nations. President Ismail Omer, whose Arta conference peace forum is under threat after claims that it Sudan is also courting South Africa, where launched the TNG last year. Despite the clashes was negotiating to import oil from Sudan. Oil Mustafa Osman and a large delegation of and Ato’s denial that he’s prepared to launch a is at the heart of Khartoum’s war against the Sudanese businesspeople are due next week. joint security force with the TNG, prospects for south and the deal triggered conflict within the On 20 July, SA oil parastatal Soekor was forced a deal in Mogadishu are improving. The TNG’s Nairobi government as the threat to the Inter- to issue a statement that it had ‘not decided to business backers, including Abderahman Bori, Governmental Authority on Development mine oil in Sudan’: a furore broke out after talks a Djibouti sugar importer close to Ismail Omer, (IGAD) process became clear. with Khartoum on possible oil exploration. We have given up on a military solution and need a Heading the IGAD Peace Committee hear Pretoria’s Department of Foreign Affairs deal with the SRRC. (Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda) is the opposes involvement on humanitarian grounds, Time is running out. Three of the TNG’s spearhead of regional policy for President and Minister of Foreign Affairs Nkosazana main supporters have been putting up nearly a and his civil service chief, Zuma has strong reservations about Khartoum’s million dollars a month. They want peace – in Sally Kosgei. She met the United States overtures to Pretoria. Khartoum hopes Pretoria Mogadishu, at least – to attract the profits National Security Advisor, Condoleeza Rice, will help persuade Washington to relax sanctions expected from rehabilitation, development and earlier this month. but we hear there’s little chance of Pretoria aid agencies. Part of the price will be recognition Kenya’s oil sector was surprised early in July changing its stance. One of South Africa’s that the warlords have just as much of a role to when Energy Minister Raila Odinga announced President Thabo Mbeki’s favoured think-tanks, play in the TNG as Siad Barre’s old ministers, Kenya would import Sudanese oil cheaply under the Renaissance Institute (backed by British- exploding the UN myth that the TNG would the zero-tariff terms of the Common Market for based Relationships Foundation International) provide a new approach to Somali politics. Eastern and Southern Africa, to which both is attempting to mediate in the Sudan war. countries belong. Heading the effort is the redoubtable Kenyan ERITREA Kenyan law limits imports of refined products Professor Washington Okumu, who made and Mombasa refinery worried that it couldn’t headlines when he persuaded Mangosuthu handle Sudan’s waxy crude. The Kenya Revenue Buthelezi and Inkatha to participate in South Nervy Authority challenged the loss of taxes. Africa’s first free elections in 1994. Speculation about beneficiaries spread. Khartoum regards the wooing of Pretoria as Nerves are jangling in Asmara after the Rumours said the oil was not Sudanese and critical but has peculiarly hired the services of resignation of the Ambassador to Sweden, certificates were forged. Much of the oil had yet another military intelligence Norway and Finland. Hebret Berhe boldly already gone onto the market, said the press, operative to press its case. This time it is criticised the resistance to reform and democracy listing a little known Mombasa company called General Henri van der Westhuizen who runs a of the ruling People’s Front for Democracy and Bahriya (‘sea’ or ‘river’ in Arabic) as sole public affairs company called Executive Justice and President Issayas Aferworki, and importer from Sudan Petroleum (Sudapet, the Research Associates. Among his other tasks denouncing the ‘kangaroo courts’, meaning the Sudan government’s partner in its oil project). for the apartheid regime, Van der Westhuizen Special Military Court (AC Vol 42 No 14). The Then Kenyan Finance Minister Chris Okemu planned the operation that blew up African PFDJ quickly went to work on the internet, announced the deal was still being discussed National Congress activist Albie Sachs in unconvincingly attacking her financial probity with Khartoum. There were reports that the Maputo, Mozambique. We hear that Van der and, bizarrely, accusing her of ‘a lack of USA had blocked the deal. Westhuizen and ERA are working hard to open stamina’. Hebret Berhe resigned rather than Diesel was indeed unloaded, Africa doors for Mustafa Osman’s delegation but are attend a meeting on 11 July of ambassadors in Confidential understands, but whether more is meeting little interest outside the Department Europe, organised by Issayas’s main political expected is unclear. Business sources confirm of Mines and Energy. advisor, Yemane Gebreab, where she would Mombasa refinery cannot process Sudan’s Nile have been ordered back to Asmara to be sacked Crude. This underlines the political aims of the SOMALIA or frozen out. National Islamic Front/National Congress But the Ambassador to Germany, Beraki government. It already signed an agreement Gebreselassi, did go to the meeting and has this year to supply petroleum to Ethiopia – Transition to where? been ordered home; he signed the letter along a road that is far from being built and Though recognised by the Organisation of criticising Issayas’s personal rule which was would be a major undertaking. The deal gives African Unity, Inter-Governmental Authority made public by the ‘G15’ at the end of May. the impression of a normalisation of relations on Development and United Nations, the Gebreselassi apparently intends to obey, though whereas Ethiopia’s prime bilateral concern Transitional National Government (TNG, AC he will lose his job and, like other G15 remains Islamist destabilisation by Khartoum. Vol 42 No 10) controls just a few Mogadishu signatories, may be detained by the Special In Kenya, the oil deal is widely seen as streets. Despite a recent planeload of arms Court. Early this month, Bereket Habte reflecting the policies of President Moi and oil (from Libya via Eritrea), its 2,000-strong police Selassie, who chairs the constitutional drafting supremo Nicholas Biwott. In Sudan, though, it force – a militia in disguise – could do little to committee, made a blistering attack on the looks like another NIF move to sabotage the prevent over 300 casualties in fighting on 12-17 internet on the Special Court, saying it violated IGAD process; just as Khartoum has been using July. Its opponents, grouped in the Ethiopian- constitutional rights to a fair trial with its military the Libyan-Egyptian Initiative. After backed Somali Reconciliation and procedures and lack of a right of appeal. The statements that the deal was not confirmed, Rehabilitation Council (SRRC), include most pressure has been steadily building. Another Sudan’s Foreign Minister Mustafa Osman of the warlords left out of last year’s Djibouti G15 signatory, Hamid Himid, was pulled in for Ismail threatened that Sudan would halt its conference, among them Hussein ‘Aydeed’, questioning on 6 July. 8

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