www.africa-confidential.com 27 July 2001 Vol 42 No 15 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL NIGERIA 2 NIGERIA I Politics dead or alive The ruling PDP joins the electoral 2003 starts here race with a commanding lead. The The coming elections are about the survival of Nigeria’s federation most exciting development is the as much as President Obasanjo’s career formation of the National Democratic Party, partly funded Two years before the next national elections, decision-making comes a poor second to political by General Babangida, which is manoeuvring – and that threatens the few recent successes in reforming the mismanaged and corrupt tipped as his vehicle for a campaign economy. Worse, electioneering may jeopardise the sensitive negotiations over Nigeria’s federation against Obasanjo. of states. In the south, the clamour is growing for a national conference about devolving power to the regions and states; in the north, there are fears the region would lose out economically if the NIGERIA 4 federation were weaker. President Olusegun Obasanjo is cautious about all this. He was known to oppose a national Murder, pillage, constitutional conference, preferring to give the job to the wayward National Assembly. His allies scandal now say he is willing to consider a conference, both to help the ruling People’s Democratic Party’s electoral position and to slow down the centrifugal forces pushing for radical constitutional change, Questions are being asked about if not for breaking up the federation. The limits of the federation are being tested even without a President Obasanjo’s relations with Generals Babangida and national conference. Abubakar, who have been excoriated by witnesses to the Federal strains human rights tribunal chaired by ● Twelve oil producing states want the 13 per cent of oil earnings to which they are constitutionally Justice Oputa – and have themselves been summoned. But entitled to cover offshore as well as onshore oil production, yet the federal government wants to might the portrayal at the tribunal quash this in the Supreme Court. The suit, which is to be heard in September, will be the most of army officers as clowns, thieves important test of the Court’s independence under the Obasanjo government. Government lawyers and psychopaths provoke a military will insist that the derivation or revenue-sharing formula (13 per cent of state oil revenues) applies response? only to onshore oil production, which is a fast diminishing share of total production. ● Most of the north’s 19 states have adopted a code of criminal law based on Sharia (Islamic law), FRANCE/AFRICA 6 which may be unconstitutional and is clearly against the wishes of the federal government. The state governments protest that this doesn’t infringe on the rights of dissenters or non-Muslims but Hunting lobby Christian associations strongly oppose the move. Violent confrontations on the issue left more than Efforts by Premier Lionel Jospin’s 2,000 people dead in Kaduna last year, hundreds more in other states. Many supporters of Sharia centre-left government to reform complain about the inability of the police and judicial system to deal with rising crime. France’s Africa policy have been ● Armed robbery and instability in southern states has given rise to vigilante gangs and militant spurred by a raft of scandals such ethnic associations such as the Bakassi Boys in eastern Nigeria and the Oodua People’s Congress in as Angolagate. Spearheading the the south-west, which often victimise other ethnic groups and have sparked dangerous clashes. financial reform is Jean-Michel Severino, the new head of the There have been alarming press reports that Hausa traders are storing weapons in Lagos for ‘security French aid agency who is reasons’ but wilder stories about northern vigilantes receiving military training in neighbouring determined to depoliticise aid and states have been dismissed. Others worry that incumbent state governors may use the vigilantes as open up agricultural markets. political thugs during election campaigning. ● State governments are trying to run their economies autonomously. Several are borrowing on ZAMBIA 7 capital markets; Lagos State government wants to float a 25 billion naira (US$254 million) bond to fund capital projects. The federal government is losing control of macro-economic policy and the Post-summit blues central bank wants to bar state governments from contracting major domestic liabilities without consultation. Proceeds from the latest mobile telephone licensing round are being divided between President Chiluba’s hosting of the OAU has been followed by a series feds and states, as are oil windfall payments. This gives extra funds to state governors who are more of political crises: the loss of a key concerned with re-election than with the long-term effects of public spending on the naira’s stability by-election, the beating of a former or on interest rates aide and an embarrassing The main concern for most politicians is whether Obasanjo will seek a second term in 2003. His defamation case. advisors offer contrary views but most believe he will run – leaving an official announcement as late as possible, to keep his rivals guessing. He would then have to jump once more through the PDP’s POINTERS 8 nomination hoops. Some loyalists have already started campaigning in their home regions for his re-election. Eastern ministers Ojo Maduekwe (Transport) and Kema Chikwe (Aviation) started at Sudan/Kenya, the beginning of July. The Yoruba Council of Elders endorsed Obasanjo despite scepticism from Somalia & Eritrea sundry Yoruba nationalists. 27 July 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 15 Politics dead or alive The ruling People’s Democratic Party, with 209 of the 348 seats in the his prime. Some claim that Emeka Anyaoku, until recently Secretary National Assembly and 59 of the 103 seats in the Senate, enters the electoral General of the Commonwealth, is presidential material but he would not be race with a commanding lead and all the advantages of incumbency in the ready by 2003. Of the upcoming governors and senators, Governor presidency and several state governorships. The All People’s Party, with 74 Chimaroke Nnamani of Enugu State is taken seriously. The more populist seats in the Assembly and 24 in the Senate, and the Alliance for Democracy Orji Kalu of Abia State has ambitions but also a past that might not stand with 68 and 20 seats respectively, are deeply fragmented and demoralised. up to investigation. Nigerians want a reordering of the political landscape. Yet even if the new The politics of the southern oil-producing states – the south-south – will electoral law is passed in September and it permits new parties to be formed, be affected by the Supreme Court battle over off-shore oil revenues. If the the PDP’s opponents have not got much time to put together cohesive Court decision goes in their favour and Obasanjo’s federal government national parties. gives the south-south states 13 per cent of oil revenue from the offshore sea- The PDP, whose backbone is the People’s Democratic Movement of the bed, influential Delta members will probably stay in the PDP. If they lose, late Shehu Musa Yar ’Adua, will be hard to stop, in spite of its own internal many prominent south-south politicians will walk out of the party. Whether divisions. There was a row last year when PDM candidate Barnabas they can coalesce into a united movement against Abuja is another matter. Gemade won the party chair over Sunday Awoniyi, candidate for the more In the south-south states, some of whose peoples are bitter rivals, it would conservative north. Amid allegations of rigging, Awoniyi was expelled, be hard to present a common front or a common candidate. Peter Odili of along with party stalwarts including Bamanga Tukur from Adamawa Rivers State has aspirations beyond his state; Donald Duke of Cross Rivers State, a founding member of the PDP and also a former state governor and is said to want to be Atiku’s Vice-President. minister. Awoniyi now leads National Frontiers (NF), an association that In the south-west, the PDP has recently secured defections from the AD has renamed itself National Democratic Party in the hope of being registered by three senators and representatives. In Lagos and Ogun states, where the in September. PDP did badly last time, Obasanjo’s increased popularity could give it a few The PDP’s main parliamentary challenger in 1999 was the APP, an odd senatorial seats and governorships against incumbent governors who are amalgam of Abacha-era politicians and radical opponents of President determined and well equipped to stave them off. Olusegun Obasanjo. The Alliance for Democracy is so divided that it has Vigilantism is the big new danger. Governor Bola Tinubu of Lagos State two executive councils, one backed by the mainstream Yoruba cultural has suggested that the Oodua People’s Congress, a Yoruba association association, Afenifere, and one closer to President Obasanjo’s camp. Bola banned by Obasanjo for inciting ethnic violence, could be deployed in Ige, the Attorney General, has a foot in both camps as deputy head of Lagos to fight crime; Tinubu could then employ it for political purposes. Afenifere but also the President’s leading AD ally. The Bakassi Boys, deployed to fight crime in Abia and Anambra states, The NF/NDP hopes to bite off disaffected factions from the AD and PDP could turn into private militias at the service of Governors Orji Kalu and and swallow the APP whole. The NF/NDP has also been courting cultural Chinwoke Mbadinuju. Members of the Anambra State Assembly drew and ethnic associations – Afenifere; Ohaneze, its Igbo counterpart in the pistols during a debate on law and order. Mbadinuju, the original champion east; the Arewa Consultative Forum, its newer equivalent in the north; and of the Bakassi Boys, faces a group of wealthy inhabitants determined to the Union of the Niger Delta, a loose association of southern oil-producing unseat him.