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Plants and Climate Change in Europe

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Plants and Climate Change in Europe Strasbourg, 2 September 2009 T-PVS/Inf (2009) 9 [Inf09e_2009.doc] CONVENTION ON THE CONSERVATION OF EUROPEAN WILDLIFE AND NATURAL HABITATS Standing Committee 29th meeting Bern, 23-26 November 2009 __________ THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PLANT SPECIES IN EUROPE FINAL VERSION Report prepared by Professor Vernon Heywood School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading With contributions by Dr Alastair Culham This document will not be distributed at the meeting. Please bring this copy. Ce document ne sera plus distribué en réunion. Prière de vous munir de cet exemplaire. T-PVS/Inf (2009) 9 - 2 – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A summary is given of the current state of conservation of plant diversity in Europe and gaps in our baseline knowlege are identified. Published data on the recent effects on climate change on European plants are reviewed, including changes in phenology and altitudinal shifts. All the available evidence points to the high probability that plant diversity, both at the landscape and ecosystem level and at the species and population level will be severely impacted by climate change over the course of this century, interacting with other forms of global change such as population growth and movement and changes in disturbance regimes. The impacts will not be uniform, with some regions such as northern Europe experiencing moderate changes and turnover of species, while others, especially in the Mediterranean region and high mountain ranges may expect serious disruption of existing ecosystems and their replacement with novel assemblages of species and the loss of considerable numbers of currently rare and endangered species in specialized habitats. Many species that are not currently threatened or on national Red Lists may be put at risk by climate change, while others will be at risk of extinction through lack of suitable niches into which to migrate. While we have developed increasingly sophisticated tools and modelling procedures, very considerable uncertainty remains about species migrations and habitat change at the local scale. The advantages and disadvantages of bioclimatic modelling are reviewed. It is very likely that there will be a substantial rise in the number of invasive species as a result of climate and other factors of global change, with serious effects on particular habitats. While recognizing that the Bern Convention, the Habitats Directive and individual countries have made major progress in determining which species required priority action through habitat conservation and the creation of ecological networks, implementation is not yet complete, especially in terms of area management and species-level conservation. Given that baseline data are still far from complete, for example on threatened species, identity and extent of invasions, the number of species for which conservation/management/recovery plans have been implemented, it is difficult to determine appropriate targets for action. The various conservation strategies available, both in situ and ex situ are considered and the need for a critical look at their effectiveness is stressed, as well as detailed consideration of novel approaches such as inter situs conservation, human assisted migration and conservation outside protected areas. An Annex is provided containing all Bern Convention listed species and information on their conservation status, availability of recovery plans and georeferenced points for niche modelling. - 3 - T-PVS/Inf (2009) 9 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. THE CONTEXT AND RECENT DEVELOPMENTS ..................................................................................... 5 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 5 1.2 Global change ............................................................................................................................. 6 2. SUMMARY OF EVIDENCE OF THE RECENT EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON EUROPEAN PLANTS ........................................................................................................................... 7 2.1 Phenology ................................................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Altitudinal shifts ......................................................................................................................... 9 2.3 Plant species as indicators of climate change ............................................................................. 10 3. REGIONAL VARIATION IN IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN EUROPE AND WITHIN COUNTRIES ....................................................................................................... 10 3.1 Regional impacts ......................................................................................................................... 11 3.1.1 The Mediterranean region ................................................................................................. 12 3.1.2 Mountain and alpine zones ................................................................................................ 13 3.1.3 Mediterranean Islands ...................................................................................................... 15 3.2 Coastal zones .............................................................................................................................. 17 3.3 Macaronesian islands ................................................................................................................. 18 3.3.1 Canary Islands .................................................................................................................. 18 3.3.2 Madeira .............................................................................................................................. 19 3.3.3 Azores................................................................................................................................ 19 4. CURRENT STATUS OF PLANT DIVERSITY IN EUROPE: THE BASELINE ...................................... 19 4.1 Threatened species ...................................................................................................................... 20 4.2 Red Listing and climate change .................................................................................................. 21 4.3 Tree species................................................................................................................................. 21 5. PREDICTING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PLANT DIVERSITY IN EUROPE ........... 22 5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 24 5.2 Advantages and limitations of niche modelling .......................................................................... 24 6. INVASIVE POTENTIAL WITH CLIMATIC CHANGE .......................................................................... 25 6.1 Background ................................................................................................................................. 25 6.2 Key issues .................................................................................................................................. 26 6.3 Niche modelling and predicting invasives .................................................................................. 27 6.4 Sources and prediction of invasions ........................................................................................... 27 6.5 Unintentional human-assisted migration .................................................................................... 28 6.6 Codes of conduct ........................................................................................................................ 29 7. PLANNED ADAPTATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR CONSERVATION STRATEGIES AND ACTION ..... 29 7.1 The context ................................................................................................................................. 30 7.2 Protected areas ............................................................................................................................ 30 7.2.1 The situation today ............................................................................................................. 31 7.2.2 Projected impacts of climate change ................................................................................ 31 7.2.3 Implications for management of protected areas ............................................................. 32 7.2.4 Representation of threatened species in protected areas .................................................. 32 7.2.5 Role of habitat networks ................................................................................................... 33 7.3 Plant Microreserves (PMR) ........................................................................................................ 34 7.4 Conservation outside protected areas .......................................................................................... 35 7.5 Species conservation ................................................................................................................... 35 7.5.1 In situ conservation ............................................................................................................ 35 7.5.2 Bern Convention context ................................................................................................... 36 7.5.3 Reintroduction,
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