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RHS Gardening in a Changing Climate Report

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RHS Gardening in a Changing Climate Report Gardening in a Changing Climate Acknowledgements The RHS and University of Reading would like to acknowledge the support provided by Innovate UK through the short Knowledge Transfer Partnership KTP 1000769 from November 2012 to September 2013. The RHS is grateful to the Trustees of Spencer Horticultural Trust, who supported the project to revise the Gardening in the Global Greenhouse report. The RHS would also like to thank: The authors of the 2002 report, Richard Bisgrove and Professor Paul Hadley, for building the foundations for this updated report. The contributors of this report: Dr John David (RHS), Dr Ross Cameron (University of Sheffield), Dr Alastair Culham (University of Reading), Kathy Maskell (Walker Institute, University of Reading) and Dr Claudia Bernardini (KTP Research Associate). Dr Mark McCarthy (Met Office) and Professor Tim Sparks (Coventry University) for their expert consultation on the climate projections and phenology chapters, respectively. This document is available to download as a free PDF at: Gardening in a www.rhs.org.uk/climate-change Citation Changing Climate Webster E, Cameron RWF and Culham A (2017) Gardening in a Changing Climate, Royal Horticultural Society, UK. Eleanor Webster, About the authors Ross Cameron and Dr Eleanor Webster is a Climate Scientist at the Royal Horticultural Alastair Culham Society Dr Ross Cameron is a Senior Lecturer in Landscape Management, Ecology & Design at the University of Sheffield Dr Alastair Culham is an Associate Professor of Botany at the University of Reading Gardening in a Changing Climate RHS 2 3 Contents Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2 3.4 The UK’s variable weather and its implications for projections of future climate ........................................................ 31 Contents page ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 3.4.1 The effect of year to year variability......................................................................................................................................................... 31 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................... 8 3.4.2 The influence of the Gulf Stream............................................................................................................................................................... 32 A summary of climate projections .............................................................................................................................................. 8 3.4.3 The Jet Stream ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32 Implications for gardeners .............................................................................................................................................................. 8 3.5 Recent extreme weather events and seasons............................................................................................................................... 33 What can you do? ............................................................................................................................................................................... 9 3.6 Summary and discussion ...................................................................................................................................................................... 35 Preface ..................................................................................................................................................................................................10 3.6.1 Current and near term (present to the 2040s) ..................................................................................................................................... 35 1. INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................................................................................11 3.6.2 Medium and longer term (2050 to 2100) ............................................................................................................................................. 35 2. CLIMATE CHANGE: THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE ...............................................................................................................13 3.6.3 What does this mean for gardening? ....................................................................................................................................................... 35 2.1 Changes in the global climate system ............................................................................................................................................. 15 4. THE SURVEY ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 36 2.1.1 The interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean ............................................................................................................... 15 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 36 2.2 Causes of climate change ..................................................................................................................................................................... 17 4.2 Knowledge: general beliefs and understanding of climate change .................................................................................... 37 2.3 Projections of future climate ............................................................................................................................................................... 19 4.3 Concerns: perceived sense of vulnerability and associated risks .......................................................................................... 37 2.3.1 Simulating the global climate system ...................................................................................................................................................... 19 4.4 Experience: the effects of climate change on gardening and adaptation ....................................................................... 42 2.3.2 Future climate change .................................................................................................................................................................................... 19 4.5 Willingness: the effectiveness of adaptive behaviour ............................................................................................................... 44 2.4 Global action to address human–induced climate change .................................................................................................... 21 4.6 Summary of key findings ...................................................................................................................................................................... 46 2.5 Summary ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22 5. THE INTeracTION BETWEEN THE GARDEN AND THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT ...........................................47 3. THE FUTURE CLIMATE OF THE UK ........................................................................................................................................23 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 47 3.1 Characteristics of UK climate .............................................................................................................................................................. 23 5.2 A brief history of species introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 48 3.2 How is UK climate changing? .............................................................................................................................................................. 23 5.3 Niche modelling ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 48 3.2.1 Temperature ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 23 5.4 Invasive non–native plant species .................................................................................................................................................... 49 3.2.2 Rainfall ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................
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