USAID/BURMA MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT March 2020

Contract Number: 72048218C00004 Myanmar Analytical Activity

Acknowledgement

This report is made possible by the support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this report are the sole responsibility of Kimetrica and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. This report was written by Kimetrica LLC (www.kimetrica.com) and Mekong Economics (www.mekongeconomics.com) as part of the Myanmar Analytical Activity (MAA) and is therefore the exclusive property of USAID. Melissa Earl (Kimetrica) is the author of this report and is reachable at [email protected] or at Kimetrica LLC, 80 Garden Center, Suite A-368, Broomfield, CO 80020. The author’s views in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. The author would like to thank Harry Ellis, Callum Furness, Steve Hedden, Amber Moffett, and Sophie Turnbull, for their analysis, writing, and visualization contributions. The author would also like to thank Selma Kalousek and Alea Tebbe for their insights and editorial support.

MARCH 2020 AT A GLANCE

First Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 Reported in Myanmar. After two months of insisting that the COVID-19 virus had not reached Myanmar, the Government announced its first cases this month. As of April 2, there are 20 confirmed cases in the country, but only 534 people have been tested. The Government has resisted a nationwide lockdown, but some townships with confirmed cases have implemented local lockdowns. (Page 1)

Government Orders Mandatory Quarantine or Surveillance for Anyone Entering the Country. Due to concerns over the influx of migrant workers from Thailand, on March 16, the Government ordered all returning migrant workers to self- quarantine at home. (Page 2)

Thousands of Factory Workers Laid Off as Factories Forced to Suspend Operations or Close. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted supply chains from China and depressed demand in Europe. The Central Bank of Myanmar and the Government announced expansionary monetary and stimulus plans to help ease the economic impact of the pandemic. (Page 4)

The Government of Myanmar Declares the Arakan Army (AA) a Terrorist Organization. The designation will have implications for the peace process, NGOs, journalists, and civilians as the Tatmadaw can detain on suspicion of links to the AA. (Page 6)

The Internet Blackout in Parts of Northern Rakhine and Chin States Remains in Effect. In March, fighting between the Tatmadaw and the AA increased, as did violence against civilians. Suspicions abound that the Tatmadaw is using the internet blackout to intensify fighting and commit human rights abuses with impunity. (Page 8)

Parliament Fails to Pass Constitutional Amendments. Only four out of the 135 proposed constitutional amendments passed. The military’s power, enshrined in the 2008 constitution, remains intact. (Page 11)

The United Wa State Army Announces Plans to Work with the Government’s Union Election Commission (UEC) to Hold Elections in Townships Under its Control. Townships known as Special Region No. 2 did not hold elections in 2010 or 2015 because the UEC could not be sure that the elections would be free and fair. (Page 12)

The Ministry of Transport and Communications Orders Mobile Companies to Block Websites. The Government blocked 221 websites, including several ethnic news sites, claiming they contribute to misinformation and/or carry content that is explicit or considered sexually explicit content using children. News and human rights organizations argue that the Government is censoring websites it cannot control. (Page 14)

The Controversial Namjim Economic Zone in Kachin State Put on Hold. The Chinese-funded project, which is to be the largest economic zone in Myanmar, is opposed by locals and the Kachin State parliament. They accuse the Union Government of not being transparent and failing to report plans for the project to the State Parliament. (Page 16)

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 1

COVID-19 UPDATE a medical certificate to show they have no symptoms of acute respiratory illness before entry and quarantine in a government facility.vi From March 30 until April 13, the Government of Myanmar will not allow international commercial passenger flights into Myanmar. Foreign nationals have been suspended from entering or exiting Myanmar through land borders since March 19.

Precautions are being taken across the country. The Health Ministry plans to test anyone with symptoms (not just those who have recently traveled); Keptal Village in Tedim, where the man who was confirmed positive for coronavirus had stayed previously,

Figure 1. Illustration of the Coronavirus is on lockdown; travel restrictions are being ALISSA ECKERT & DAN HIGGINS/CDC imposed on Kale, a town in Sagaing on the SOURCE: NEW YORK TIMES border of Chin, where residents of Tedim fled before the village went into lockdown; in FIRST CASE OF CORONAVIRUS Mandalay, restaurants, bars, tea shops, and CONFIRMED IN MYANMAR food shops were ordered shut except for On March 23, the first two cases of the takeaway, and the number of health coronavirus were confirmed in Tedim checkpoints, where temperatures are taken, Township, Chin State and in Yangon.i Both are are increasing; and the Government ordered male, one recently traveled to the US and the ministries that half of their employees work other to the UK.ii Since then, other cases from home.vii among patients who recently returned from Australia and Singapore have been reported, The shutdown in Tedim Township resulted in increasing suspicions that the Government of a spike in the prices of basic necessities, and Myanmar’s previous claims that the country is news of the first confirmed cases has driven virus-free were false and that the virus had consumers in Yangon and other parts of the simply remained undetected due to a lack of country to panic shop.viii testing.iii Investigations are underway to identify individuals who have been in recent With such a drastic shift in the country’s contact with those who tested positive.iv response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many expatriate workers and volunteers left the In response, Tedim Township was shut down, country as flights became more sparse.ix and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is requiring Embassies, NGOs, and foreign companies are anyone traveling to Myanmar from high-risk recalling all non-essential international staff. areas to spend 14 days in a government Those staying are being instructed to work quarantine facility; Myanmar nationals, from home.x Expatriates remaining in the diplomats, and UN employees must provide lab country are reporting a rise in xenophobic results proving the absence of COVID-19 tendencies and suspicion of foreigners. MAA infection within the three days prior to their researchers received reports of agitators using arrival to the country and are subject to a 14- loudspeakers, both in Yangon and in rural parts day home quarantine.v Myanmar nationals need of the country, to encourage people to report

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 1 illegal foreigners to local authorities, landlords to require additional documentation, and some reports of refusing foreigners access to everyday services like public transportation.

BORDER CROSSINGS FORCED OPEN AS THOUSANDS OF MIGRANT WORKERS RETURN Thousands of migrant workers returned to Myanmar from Thailand, forcing the previously closed border crossings to reopen. After the number of confirmed COVID-19 infections Figure 2. Migrant Workers Crossing the Myanmar-Thai more than doubled, a Thai Interior Ministry Friendship Bridge THANT ZIN AUNG, REUTERS official announced that land border crossings would stay open until late Monday, March 23, to allow migrants to return home before all of GOVERNMENT HANDLING OF THE CRISIS Thailand’s 91 border crossings (with Myanmar, As the Government attempts to contain public Laos, Cambodia, and Malaysia) close to contain panic over the outbreak of COVID-19, health the spread of the virus.xi experts and political analysts have widely criticized its response. In particular, the Because of the flood of incoming migrant Government’s repeated claim that, up until workers, Thailand and Myanmar were also March 23, Myanmar had no confirmed cases, forced to reopen the second Mae Sot- drew derision from international political Myawaddy Friendship Bridge on Tuesday, pundits.xvi Figure 3 shows the COVID-19 cases March 24, which had just been shut the in Myanmar’s neighboring countries as well as previous day. Nearly 2,000 workers crossed Myanmar’s official cases as of April 5. the border on March 24, according to a politician who was at the border control On March 16, State Counsellor Aung San Suu checkpoint.xii Since March 20, more than Kyi addressed the nation on television and 20,000 migrants have returned to Myanmar claimed that “No one in our country is infected through the Myawaddy Township checkpoint with COVID-19.”xvii Furthermore, in a press alone, and more are still heading toward the conference, government spokesperson Zaw border.xiii Figure 2 is a photograph taken from Htay claimed that the virus had yet to spread social media of the exodus through the in Myanmar due to the lifestyle and diet of its Myawaddy Township checkpoint. The population, and the predominant use of paper Government is calling on all returnees to self- money rather than credit cards.xviii The quarantine at home for two weeks, concerned statements were criticized by observers; Phil that state facilities would not be able to handle Robertson, Deputy Director of the Asia the influx.xiv But according to Aung Kyaw Hein, Division of Human Rights Watch, called the a Tanintharyi Region member of Parliament claims irresponsible as they defied reality and (MP), there are still many illegal frontier gave people in Myanmar a false sense of crossings that may further put the country in security over the outbreak.xix danger, despite the shutting of the borders and the presence of checkpoints.xv

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 2 Figure 3. COVID-19 Cases in Southeast Asia as of April 5 KIMETRICA

In addition, the Government faces intense medical staff in townships across the scrutiny over the extremely limited number of country.xxiv tests that have been conducted. Figures released by the Ministry of Health and Sports Whether the preparations are sufficient to reveal that, as of April 1, only 561 people have relieve the strain off Myanmar’s inadequate been tested.xx With only one laboratory in healthcare system and provide treatment is Myanmar capable of conducting tests for questionable. While Phyo Min Thein said that COVID-19, the country’s health system lacks 50 to 100 ventilators were necessary for a the capacity to scale up testing and detection hospital with 300 patients, figures collected by of the disease. The lack of testing raises fears Democratic Voice of Burma suggest a severe that the disease is far more prevalent in shortage of ventilators.xxv According to the Myanmar than official figures show.xxi estimates, there are only four ventilators per 200 beds available at Yangon General Hospital, By late March and in anticipation of an Insein Hospital, North Okalapa Hospital, and outbreak, the Government has been ramping Hlaing Thayar Hospital. up its preparations, setting up a number of quarantine facilities across the country, the The Government has not yet put the whole majority in Yangon City. According to Yangon country on lockdown. In Yangon, for instance, Chief Minister Phyo Min Thein, 500 apartment bars and restaurants continue to offer units and two 300-bed hospital units have been takeaway service, and shops and other public set up to quarantine patients.xxii Five stadiums venues are still operating normally, with only a in Yangon have also been prepared as potential few completely closed down.xxvi A source close quarantine areas.xxiii A senior spokesperson for to the Ministry of Health and Sports told MAA the military said that 17 military hospitals were researchers that the Government is being adapted to help treat patients and assist considering imposing community quarantines

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 3 in all of Yangon’s townships in the coming it could spread to others in the camp in a weeks. In response to public fears over a matter of days, and possibly to the rest of the countrywide lockdown, Aung San Suu Kyi region, causing mass deaths.xxxii According to issued a public address on March 31, reassuring Berhan Taye, a policy analyst for Access Now, the country that the Government would only in a time where education is a primary tool in impose community quarantines where fighting the spread of the disease, "If there is a necessary, and that the newly-formed COVID- population in your specific country that is not 19 response committee would ensure having access to this credible information [...] quarantined areas would still receive food and all the efforts [... will] be multiplied by medical supplies.xxvii zero.”xxxiii

Myanmar government officials are reluctant to THE ECONOMIC FALLOUT impose a full lockdown considering the likely catastrophic economic impact on communities FACTORIES CLOSE AND UNEMPLOYMENT in Myanmar. According to local political analyst RISES Thant Myint-U, millions of people across the Thousands of workers are being laid off from country are only able to survive on their daily factories, either temporarily or permanently, income.xxviii Stockpiling of food is therefore not as they are being forced to suspend or close an option for much of Myanmar’s population, their operations.xxxiv Supply chains from China and the Government lacks the fiscal and have been disrupted by the pandemic, and institutional capacity to supplement people’s demand for garments has slumped in Europe incomes. In a country where a third of the and in the US, which means garment factories population is highly vulnerable to falling into have been especially impacted.xxxv poverty, the Government is most likely weighing the economic and social impact of a Soe Myint, chair of the Myanmar Garment lockdown against the public health threat Entrepreneurs Association, said 20 Chinese- posed by COVID-19.xxix owned factories have closed since the outbreak, leaving 10,000 people unemployed. INTERNET BAN COULD WORSEN COVID Paid overtime at other factories has been cut- EFFECTS back, which means those still with a job are Human rights and humanitarian groups, such as likely to see a decrease in their salary; overtime the Rakhine Ethnic Congress (REC), are calling can often account for up to a third of monthly on the Government to lift the internet ban to pay.xxxvi Some estimates suggest another 30 allow for the dissemination of vital information factories could close due to a shortage of raw about COVID-19 and how to deal with it.xxx materials or dwindling demand, leaving around David Kaye, a UN special rapporteur on the 15,000 additional factory workers jobless, right to freedom of opinion and expression, many of whom are the breadwinners for stated, "Internet access is critical at a time of families.xxxvii On March 13, the Government crisis. Especially at a time of emergency, broad agreed to form a committee to support those restrictions on access to the internet cannot who have lost their jobs. be justified on public order or national security grounds."xxxi Unemployed workers are struggling to find work as many surrounding factories also shut The REC Secretary, Zaw Zaw Tun, said that down and the upcoming Thingyan Water given the crowded conditions in internally Festival is delaying new work and hiring. Lack displaced persons (IDP) camps and ignorance of work has led to many workers to travel about the virus, if one IDP contracts the virus, home to regions outside of Yangon and

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 4 Mandalay. More than 460 workers at the began in January. On March 18, the Chinese-owned Royal Apollo Co Ltd were left Government also announced an initial stimulus without compensation as the factory declared package that includes an MMK 100 billion ($70 bankruptcy. Some employers have given their million) loan fund, and has eased deadlines for workers severance pay as required by the tax payments and granted tax exemptions for labor law.xxxviii locally-owned businesses affected by the pandemic.xliii The loans – at a one percent A few labor organizations are cynical about the interest rate for one year – are intended mainly reasons behind factory shutdowns, claiming to prop up the tourism and garment industries some are doing it to avoid workplace disputes. and to help local small and medium-sized A labor rights group in Yangon formed a enterprises (SMEs). committee that is demanding the Government check factories to ensure their reasons for While the business community welcomed closing or suspending operations are these steps, concerns remain that this does not genuine.xxxix Khine Zar, a labor representative address the immediate impact of COVID-19 or on the National Committee for Setting the support low-income workers who rely on daily Minimum Wage, called for an investigation of wages or remittances. Fitch Solutions criticized the factories, most of which had labor disputes the measures, saying they are likely to benefit prior to the pandemic, after Hwashin Time larger businesses but not smaller SMEs, which garment factory and Lucky Sky bag factory both often struggle to access financing and therefore closed allegedly due to a shortage of raw will not qualify for the low-interest loans. Fitch materials, even as both were having labor Solutions cut Myanmar’s annual growth problems.xl The newly formed committee is forecast down from 6.3 percent to 3.6 percent, also putting pressure on the Government to a similar proportional cut to world growth give laid-off workers financial support. forecasts, which are down from 2.5 percent to 1.3 percent.xliv ECONOMIC RESPONSES In March, the Central Bank implemented Thang Tun, Union Minister for Investment and expansionary monetary policy measures to Foreign Economic Relations (MIFER) and chair stimulate business activity and to stabilize the of the Working Committee to Address volatile Kyat.xli On March 12, the UMFCCI Possible Impacts of COVID-19, met with called for the creation of a national-level World Bank and the Asian Development Bank committee, including representatives from the (ADB) representatives to discuss responses to private sector, to address the economic and the impact of COVID-19. MIFER said the social impact of the outbreak and discuss World Bank has made $50 million available to measures such as procuring business loans, Myanmar through a credit facility and is ensuring workers receive full compensation, working on an assessment of COVID-19’s and speeding up customs clearance for raw impact on Myanmar's economy. The ADB materials. announced a $6.5 billion loans and grants package for developing member countries of On March 10, Aung San Suu Kyi announced the ADB, including Myanmar.xlv that the Government planned in advance on how to cushion the economic repercussions of the outbreak but stopped short of providing specific details.xlii A government committee was formed under the Ministry for International Cooperation when the outbreak

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 5 CONFLICT ARAKAN ARMY-TATMADAW

● The Government of Myanmar declares ARAKAN ARMY DECLARED TERRORIST the AA a terrorist group. ORGANIZATION ● Heavy fighting between the AA and the On March 23, under the Unlawful Association Tatmadaw continues unabated in Rakhine Law, the Government of Myanmar declared State and Paletwa Township in Chin State, the Arakan Army (AA) and its affiliates unlawful with high numbers of civilians killed, organizations and terrorist groups.xlvi injured, and displaced. According to the AA and the Rakhine political ● A Chin political party, the Chin National party the Arakan National Party (ANP), the Front (CNF,) released a statement declaration shows the Government’s desire to demanding the AA and Tatmadaw cease use military force instead of engaging in peace fighting in Paletwa Township. negotiations to resolve conflict in Rakhine.xlvii ● Fighting broke out in March between the On March 26, the Northern Alliance, which Tatmadaw and the TNLA in Mongmit and includes the AA, the Myanmar National Namhkan Townships, and the Tatmadaw Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta’ang and RCSS in Mongmit Township, forcing National Liberation Army (TNLA) released a hundreds of civilians to flee. statement, calling the designation unlawful and ● Landmines exploded in Ye Township, maintaining that it would continue to work Mon State, and Yebyu Township, with and support the AA,xlviii adding that the Tanintharyi Region. It is unclear who is designation would further alienate ethnic responsible. minorities and ethnic armed organizations

(EAOs) in Myanmar.

Figure 4 maps conflict events in Myanmar Tatmadaw Brigadier General Zaw Min Tun between February 23 and March 28, 2020 as condoned the declaration, saying that the AA reported by the Armed Conflict and Location “has shown it does not want peace.” He added, Event Data (ACLED) project. “Now that they have been declared a terrorist group, in legal sense, they have very little chance of participating in the peace process.”xlix ANP’s Whei Tin, an NLD lawmaker from Chin State, and Min Zaw Oo, founder of the Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security, believe the declaration will only lead to more conflict. At a meeting on March 20, the Tatmadaw told the Kachin Independence Organization that it would target AA troops in Kachin Independence Organization headquarters, and warned them not to accept the presence of AA troops in their territory.l According to a foreign advisor to pro- democracy and human rights movements in Myanmar, the AA has a base in Laiza, where the KIO is headquartered, and, in the past, many AA leaders gained combat experience fighting the Tatmadaw in Kachin alongside the KIO’s Figure 4. Conflict Hot Spot Map (February 23 to March 28, 2020) KIMETRICA LLC, DATA SOURCE: ACLED armed-wing, the Kachin Independence Army.

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 6 The two EAOs support one another strongly, March 11, the two sides fought again, with the and the foreign advisor predicted that the KIO AA capturing another 10 Tatmadaw soldiers, would continue to support the AA, “no matter including two captains. An AA spokesperson what its claims diplomatically.” announced that the captives would be treated in accordance with international laws for The declaration could also have implications prisoners of war, and on March 12 the AA for local civilians and on how the Government requested medical assistance for two of the defends the conflict internationally. A captive soldiers with serious injuries.liv The AA Tatmadaw spokesman suggested that legally also said it would welcome negotiations with designating the AA as a terrorist group could the NLD or the Tatmadaw to discuss allow the Government to take a stronger treatment for the injured captives, but the stance on the Rakhine conflict on the world Rakhine State Minister for Security and Border stage.li Domestically, the declaration also Affairs denied that the AA made direct contact targets anyone in contact with the AA; this with them.lv means that journalists, CSOs, and civilians can The fighting has profoundly impacted civilians, be legally charged for association, or appearing with large numbers killed, injured, detained, to associate, with the AA, allowing the and displaced throughout the conflict-affected Tatmadaw to detain civilians with impunity on townships. This month, the Tatmadaw suspicion of having links to the AA. lii A number detained two women from Yan Thit Chay of journalists have already been arrested for Village in Ramree Township, and more than publishing works that discuss the AA (see 100 civilians from various villages in Kyauktaw Social Section). Township.lvi The detainees were frequently beaten. In one incident, on March 16, the INCREASE IN FIGHTING AND CIVILIAN Tatmadaw took 50 villagers from Tin Ma CASUALTIES Village to a military station. Forty villagers were The AA and Tatmadaw clashed fiercely this soon released, but, the next day, the body of month. Fighting largely took place in Kyauktaw, one of the ten remaining detainees was found Mrauk-U, and Rathedaung Townships in in the Kaladan River. The fate of the remaining Rakhine State, and Paletwa Township in Chin nine detainees is unknown. State. Conflict also occurred in Myebon, Ponnagyun, Ann, Kyaukpyu, Maungdaw, and Table 1 summarizes the number of civilians Ramree Townships. killed, injured, and displaced in the conflict between the AA and the Tatmadaw this month. One of the fiercest battles took place early- The United Nations High Commissioner for morning on March 10, between the AA and the Refugees (UNHCR) has expressed concern Tatmadaw, on the boundary between Paletwa over the numbers of civilian casualties, which and Kyauktaw Townships near Mon Than Pyin have increased sharply since February 2020.lvii Village.liii The fighting claimed casualties on For more information on these incidents, refer both sides, and the AA captured 20 Tatmadaw to the Armed Conflict Location and Event soldiers, including a Battalion commander. On Data’s (ACLED) database.

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 7 Table 1. Civilians killed, injured, or displaced by conflict between the AA and the Tatmadaw, March 2020 Location Number of Civilians Affected

District Township

Kyaukpyu Ann 1 injured, unknown number displaced

Kyaukpyu 1 injured

Maungdaw Maungdaw 2 killed, 1 injured

Mrauk-U Kyauktaw 7 killed, at least 40 injured, at least 300 displaced, 8 missing

Minbya 1 killed, 23 injured, at least 1,000 displaced

Mrauk-U 5 killed, 34 injured, unknown number displaced

Sittwe Ponnagyun 1 killed, 7 injured, at least 600 displaced

Rathedaung I killed, 3 injured

Sittwe 3 injured

Mindat Paletwa 25 killed, 29 injured, around 1,200 displaced

INTERNET BLACKOUT CONTINUES CHIN NATIONAL FRONT DEMANDS AA Eight townships in Rakhine State and Paletwa AND TATMADAW CEASE PALETWA Township, Chin State, remain under an FIGHTING internet blackout with no sign of connectivity The conflict continues to create tensions being restored anytime soon, despite calls from between the Tatmadaw, the AA, and Chin within and outside Myanmar.lviii The internet communities. Transport routes into Paletwa blackout has affected peoples’ ability to Township have been cut off by fighting since conduct business and denied them access to early February, leaving over 100,000 people in information about conflict developments, as Paletwa facing food shortages.lxii On March 29, well as the spread of COVID-19.lix A teacher the AA looted part of a shipment of 100 sacks in Rathedaung Township told Radio Free Asia of rice intended for more than 1,700 displaced that due to the blackout, “as many as 95 villagers, organized by a Paletwa community- percent of the people here never heard of the based committee, and paid for by the Chin coronavirus.”lx In addition to being heavily State Government.lxiii After verifying with the criticized for violating people’s rights to community committee that the rice was for information, the UN, journalists, and rights civilians, the AA returned all but 20 bags, groups suspect the internet blackout is used by claiming it would pay for it later. the Tatmadaw to intensify its fighting against On March 19, the Chin National Front, an the AA and to perpetuate human rights abuses NCA-signatory EAO, issued a press release with impunity.lxi demanding that the Tatmadaw and AA stop fighting and pull their troops out of Paletwa

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 8 Township, claiming both groups had negotiations with either the AA and the committed war crimes against the Chin Tatmadaw. people.lxiv The AA responded by saying it would not withdraw troops from Paletwa SHAN while conflict with the Tatmadaw continued, due to the township’s strategic importance.lxv TA’ANG NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY In another statement in late March, the AA After a quiet February, fighting flared again added that both Chin and Rakhine people are between the Ta’ang National Liberation Army suffering from Tatmadaw oppression, and the (TNLA) and the Tatmadaw on March 10 and Chin people should therefore understand the 11, near Shwe Nyaung Pin Village, Mongmit AA’s strategy in Paletwa.lxvi The statement was Township,lxix causing more than 200 villagers to rebuffed by the Khumi Affairs Coordination flee to Loi Hser, where they are sheltering in a Council, a Chin CSO, which said, “We will monastery and being looked after by locals and decide our own fate,” and argued that the AA CSOs.lxx should have negotiated with Chin leaders before engaging in military activities in Chin On March 15, the TNLA also fought a State. combined force of Tatmadaw and Pang Say People’s Militia troops, an auxiliary group of Tensions between the AA and the Chin people the Tatmadaw, in five villages in Namhkan are exacerbated by the fact that the AA, like Township.lxxi The fighting was allegedly sparked many other Rakhine nationalists, consider because the TNLA was destroying opium Paletwa to be historically part of Rakhine poppy fields in an area controlled by the Pay national territory, and regard the Khumi Say People’s Militia. The TNLA claims it killed people to be a Rakhine rather than a Chin one militia soldier, arrested eight more, and ethnic group.lxvii Khumi leaders reject these lost three TNLA soldiers. Two male civilians assertions, and suspect that the AA is acting on from Marn Mai village were killed by falling behalf of China’s geostrategic interests in shells.lxxii Rakhine State by blocking India’s attempts to make progress with the Kaladan Multimodal RESTORATION COUNCIL OF SHAN STATE Transit Transport Project, an India-funded Continuing events that began in February, the $484 million infrastructure project to link Tatmadaw and the Restoration Council of Shan India’s northeastern states with the Bay in State (RCSS) fought at least 18 times in Bengal, that will pass through AA-controlled Mongkaing Township between March 1 and areas in Chin and Rakhine States. March 3.lxxiii The fighting occurred despite a Though tensions appear to be rising, political meeting between the two forces on March 1, analysts Maung Soe and Dr Min Zaw Oo, and the RCSS’s withdrawal of troops from its speaking to Mizzima, claim it is unlikely that camp in Mongkaing on the same day, in an active fighting will break out between the CNF attempt to stop the fighting.lxxiv On March 1, and the AA, because the CNF is mostly based the Tatmadaw allegedly used fighter jets in a in northern Chin State, far from Paletwa.lxviii battle in Ham Ngaing Village. The fighting While unlikely the CNF will join in fighting, due between the two armies led to injuries on both to the lack of roads connecting northern and sides, and, according to the RCSS, at least four southern Chin, the situation must be Tatmadaw casualties. monitored to rule out developments in the possibility of Chin people’s militias or the CNF Fighting also occurred on March 25 near Mong becoming more involved in the conflict or Eis Village, Mongton Township.lxxv After the fight, the Tatmadaw arrested the village

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 9 headman and his son. Although the headman’s groups to solve their issues peacefully through son was released a few days later, the headman the political system. In response to the March is still being held. 11 incidents, the New Mon State Party (NMSP) released a statement on March 16, saying that Hundreds of civilians were forced to flee their both the NMSP and Karen National Union homes because of the fighting. While the 300 (KNU) have a responsibility and the desire to civilians who fled Ham Ngaing were able to create a safe environment for civilians, and return to their homes soon after the fighting requested the Government’s help to remove ended, a regional lawmaker for neighboring landmines in Yebyu. Keysi Township, speaking to the Irrawaddy, said that around 200 IDPs are sheltering in Mong It is unclear which group is responsible for Kai and another 160 in Keysi town, mostly in planting the landmines.lxxx The NMSP and the monasteries.lxxvi Many villagers who had KNU, both Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement returned to their villages reported their homes (NCA), signatories, have military camps in had been ransacked and property stolen.lxxvii Yebyu and Ye Townships, and the two forces have fought over territory in the area in the MON past.lxxxi The two EAOs met once last year to discuss how they could cooperate to end This month, two landmines exploded in Ye planting landmines in Yebyu but have not met Township on March 18 and March 19.lxxviii One since.lxxxii It is possible the landmines were man was killed and another injured by the meant to target NMSP vehicles, since they explosion on March 18, and one man was killed were planted near NMSP headquarters and by the explosion on March 19. Two landmines near roads frequently used by NMSP vehicles. also exploded and injured civilians in the The KNU, speaking to the Irrawaddy, denies neighboring township of Yebyu, Tanintharyi responsibility. Region, both on March 11. Both civilians had their legs amputated.lxxix A landmine also Figure 5 shows all the conflict actors and the exploded in Yebyu last month, on February 29, number of violent interactions from January 26 injuring a civilian. The Mon State Parliament to February 22, 2020, as reported by ACLED. condemned the landmine incidents, and urged

Figure 5. Conflict Actors (February 23 to March 28, 2020) KIMETRICA LLC, DATA SOURCE: ACLED

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 10 POLITICS National Defense and Security Council; and the threshold required for constitutional ● The Parliament voted on the NLD’s amendments.lxxxvi As a result, the votes leave proposals to amend the constitution and the constitution almost completely unchanged, limit the power of the military. Only four and the military’s constitutionally-granted of the 135 proposed amendments passed powers unchecked.lxxxvii ● The United Wa State Army (UWSA) stated its willingness to work with the Elsewhere, amendments to other areas of the Government to try and carry out voting constitution also failed to pass. Although in its self-administered zones in the constitutional experts who spoke to MAA upcoming general election researchers had previously hoped that the ● Formal peace talks between the proposals would result in greater Government and EAOs were postponed decentralization, amendments seeking to until May or June due to the COVID-19 enhance the powers of state and regions were pandemic also rejected. In particular, a joint proposal by the USDP and the military to amend Section 261 of the constitution and allow state and CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM regional chief ministers to be appointed by local legislatures rather than appointed by the The NLD’s year-long attempt to amend the President was voted down. The proposal constitution came to a head this month, with received the back of only 37 percent of MPs, Parliament voting on the proposed with the military and USDP holding 31 percent amendments. In nine consecutive days of of the seats in parliament.lxxxviii marathon voting between March 10 and 20, almost all of the proposals failed to garner the In opposition to the amendment, the NLD 75 percent of MP votes needed to amend the claimed that the proposal would enhance the constitution.lxxxiii Out of 135 proposed powers of the military as it would give the amendments, only four passed. The approved chance for military and USDP lawmakers to amendments consisted of minor changes to the elect chief ministers in certain military wording used to describe the disabled and strongholds. The proposal was also mostly elderly in the constitution.lxxxiv Of the failed rejected by ethnic MPs, who likely perceived amendments, a proposal which called for the the proposal as an attempt by the military to removal of the military veto over constitutional extend its own power rather than a genuine amendments by reducing the threshold to two attempt to pursue decentralization thirds of MPs came closest to passing, with 64 reforms.lxxxix In response to the vote, Arakan percent of MPs voting in favor.lxxxv National Party MP, Pe Than, one of the few lawmakers from an ethnic party who The NLD’s failure to amend the 2008 supported the amendment, accused the NLD Constitution leaves the military with authority of betraying ethnic parties and opposing over Myanmar’s governing institutions. The federalism.xc According to political analyst Sai amendments that were rejected sought to Wansai, ethnic parties gained nothing by revoke many of the military’s privileges over supporting several of the NLD’s proposed the judicial, legislative, and administrative amendments and worsened their relationship branches of the Government including: the with the NLD and the Tatmadaw by opposing military’s share of seats in Parliament; the other amendments. As a result, the outcome commander-in-chief’s right to take power in an for the ethnic parties was “lose-lose.”xci emergency; the military’s dominance of the

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 11 In the wake of the failed constitutional ELECTION 2020 UPDATE amendments, both sides claimed victory. After the majority of the proposals were voted WA WILLING TO PARTICIPATE IN down, USDP MP Thaung Aye claimed that the ELECTION amendment process had made people realize Myanmar’s largest EAO, the United Wa State the role of the Tatmadaw in the country’s Army (UWSA), stated it cooperate with the politics.xcii Similarly, Brigadier General Maung, Government to organize voting in four leader of the military MPs in Parliament, townships under its control. On March 3, a claimed that the NLD’s attempts to amend the spokesperson for the UWSA said it was constitution threatened national reconciliation working with the UEC to hold elections in and smeared the military.xciii Pangsang, Mongmao, Pangwaun, and Namphan Townships, which are located in the Wa’s self- Although the NLD’s proposed changes were administered zone, known as Special Region overwhelmingly rejected, several within the 2.xcviii The UEC has yet to make an official party claimed political victory nonetheless. The announcement on the Wa’s participation in the secretary of the NLD information committee, general election, and details related to voter Monywa Aung Shin, claimed that the “outcome registration and voting stations are yet to be was good” and demonstrated the NLD’s finalized. commitment to amending the constitution.xciv Ahead of the general election in November, In 2010 and 2015, the Union Election the proposed charter changes were seen by Commission (UEC) said that it was unable to some in the party as a way to build up political hold free and fair elections in the Wa- capital and demonstrate to voters that it had controlled townships. Although in 2015, voting tried to keep its promise to amend the was held in the two government-controlled constitution, only to be thwarted by the townships in the Wa Region, residents of the military.xcv other four Wa-controlled townships were not able to vote out of security concerns.xcix The NLD also faced criticism over its year-long pursuit to amend the constitution, which some The UWSA’s announcement follows analysts and opposition MPs derided as a waste discussions between Hla Thein, chairman of of time. In a blistering editorial on its website, the UEC, government representatives, and Human Rights Watch criticized the NLD for Xiao Mingliang, Vice President of the UWSA wasting more than a year of legislative time, and its political wing the United Wa State Party effort, and capital on constitutional (UWSP), which took place in February. amendments that it knew were doomed to fail. According to one UWSP official, there are Instead, the article argued, the party could have many issues still to be negotiated before the leveraged its majority in Parliament to pass elections can be confirmed in the Wa self- genuinely democratic reforms such as administered townships.c expanding freedom of speech and repealing oppressive legislation.xcvi Political analyst Maung Soe told The Irrawaddy that the Wa’s decision to participate in the On Twitter, AFP journalist Sean Gleeson general election was likely aimed at maintaining accused the NLD of “shameless vanity” for good relations with the Government while focusing on amendments that the military was retaining its status as an autonomous ethnic always highly likely to veto rather than state.ci legislation that would benefit the country’s population at large.xcvii

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 12 NLD TO CHOOSE ELECTION meetings were currently on hold.cvi A CANDIDATES IN APRIL government representative also confirmed that May Win Myint, a member of the Central the fourth session of the Panglong Union Peace Executive Committee, announced on March 9 Conference (UPC) would not take place in that the NLD is set to pick candidates for the April as planned.cvii general elections in late April, following a party meeting to discuss the strategy for the Nevertheless, several low-profile meetings did upcoming election.cii take place. On March 6 and 7, NCA signatories met with government officials at the National In an attempt to boost support with local Reconciliation and Peace Centre to discuss the communities across the country, May Win implementation of the Joint Implementation Myint said that the candidates would be Coordination Meeting for the NCA. According selected based on the recommendation of to Colonel Sai Ngern, leader of the NCA- town elders described as long-term party signatories negotiating team, the meeting supporters within each township.ciii The new resulted in progress on an implementation policy is an attempt by the NLD to improve strategy for the peace process beyond 2020.cviii trust with local people, following declining levels of confidence in the NLD’s performance. On March 12, a meeting of the Union Peace Just 33 percent of respondents in a recent Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) was held national poll conducted by election NGO in Nay Pyi Taw.cix The UDPJC is responsible PACE cited the NLD as the party which best for holding national political dialogue and represented their interests.civ coordinating the 21st UPC. At the meeting, the Tatmadaw reportedly backed an EAO’s The announcement was made before proposal to draft their own state and regional widespread attention focused on COVID-19 in constitutions, expected to be formally agreed Myanmar. Thus, it is not clear if the pandemic upon at the next UPC.cx The right to draft their will affect the timing of the general election, own state constitutions signaling self- scheduled for November, though the UEC has determination has been one of the EAOs’ key yet to confirm a date. One interviewee who demands, and has been on the negotiating table works closely with the UEC told MAA since Aung San Suu Kyi restated, at the fourth researchers there was no indication that the anniversary of the NCA in October 2019, her general election would be postponed. The promise to grant states and regions the right to source also stated, however, that it was their own constitution.cxi unusual for the UEC not to have announced the election date yet. In 2015, the UEC On March 15, the RCSS met with announced the date of the November general representatives from the Tatmadaw in Nay Pyi election eleven months ahead of time.cv Taw to discuss the ongoing fighting between them.cxii At the meeting, the two sides agreed PEACE PROCESS to clearly demarcate their territories to avoid future clashes, as the Tatmadaw claimed that Momentum behind the formal peace process the RCSS had encroached on military- stalled in March, as fears over the spread of controlled areas.cxiii COVID-19 disrupted meetings and stakeholders’ attention shifted to the pandemic. On March 24, it was announced that the Government and ethnic groups agreed to delay all talks until May or June and that all

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 13 SOCIAL ISSUES Burma News International released a statement on March 29 urging the Government to allow ● The Ministry of Transport and access to these sites, particularly at a time Communications orders mobile when the public needs reliable and timely companies to block 221 websites, access to information on how to protect itself including select news sites from the COVID-19 virus.cxvii ● The Tatmadaw drops lawsuits against Irrawaddy and Reuters JOURNALISTS ARRESTED ● An environmental activist in Hpa-an is After the declaration of the AA and the ULA charged for defamation against the state as terrorist groups, the Tatmadaw detained ● Students arrested for staging a protest news staff from multiple news outlets, including against the internet ban in Rakhine and the DMG, Khit Thit Media, Voice of Myanmar and Chin Townships were charged under the Narinjara, for articles and online broadcasts Peaceful Assembly and Peaceful that included interviews with an AA cxviii Procession Law in a Yangon court. spokesman. Citing Myanmar’s Anti- ● Gun violence persists in refugee camps in Terrorism Act, arrests were made from March Cox’s Bazar 27 to March 31. The Facebook pages of these ● The UN launches the 2020 Joint Response news outlets remain up. One of those arrested Plan, asking for nearly $900 million in aid was Chief Editor of Khit Thit Media, Thar Lon for the Rohingya crisis. Zaung Htet, who was detained at his house at 10 p.m. on March 31 by approximately 10 police in plainclothes.cxix His wife immediately FREE SPEECH WATCH reported the incident to the Myanmar Press Council (MPC).cxx Police also raided news WEBSITES BLOCKED UNDER MINISTRY OF outlet offices, confiscating computers.cxxi TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONS ORDER Under the Media Law, violations of media As of March 30, the Myanmar Ministry of ethics would first be reported to the MPC, but Transport and Communications (MoTC), in this latest round of arrests, the Secretary and citing Section 77 of the Telecommunications another member of the MPC – Khine Mrat Law, ordered 221 different websites to be Kyaw, who is also a reporter for the British blocked by all mobile operators in Myanmar.cxiv Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) – were The list includes Karen News (blocked on charged, contradicting procedures laid out by March 26), which has been reporting on Shwe the law.cxxii Denouncing this crackdown on Kokko and published the Karen Women journalists, the MPC is now urging authorities Organization’s statement calling for the to adhere to the Media Law so that the MPC boycott of military goods; the Development can determine if further action is necessary Media Group (blocked on March 23), which has before filing formal criminal charges.cxxiii The been under significant pressure since last year MPC put out an official announcement and will and whose founder is still in hiding from be reportedly sending a letter to the Home Myanmar special force police; and Narinjara Affairs Minister.cxxiv Likewise, BNI Multimedia (blocked on March 24), which reports on Group sent out their Open Letter to the State fighting in Rakhine.cxv Authorities claim these Counsellor and President requesting the websites contribute to misinformation and/or arrests and charges are dismissed.cxxv provide content that is explicit or considered “child sex abuse.”cxvi

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 14 TATMADAW DROPS LAWSUIT AGAINST STUDENTS CHARGED FOR INTERNET IRRAWADDY AND REUTERS BLACKOUT DEMONSTRATION Two days after Yangon courts accepted the Six students arrested in February for leading a Tatmadaw’s lawsuit against an Irrawaddy editor, demonstration protesting the internet the Tatmadaw dropped it along with another blackout have recently been charged under the lawsuit, against Reuters news agency, owing to Peaceful Assembly and Peaceful Procession an intervention by the Myanmar Press Council Law in the Kamayut Township court in (MPC). The Tatmadaw filed the lawsuit against Yangon.cxxxiii The indictment is now raising Irrawaddy’s editor, Ye Ni, last year, under questions among university students about Article 66(d) of the Telecommunications Law, how much the Government really cares about for what it claimed was misleading reporting on education, considering exams were scheduled civilians killed in clashes between the AA and to take place less than two weeks after the the Tatmadaw.cxxvi The Tatmadaw’s lawsuit students were charged.cxxxiv against Reuters was related to coverage, this past January, of shelling in Rakhine State where THE ROHINGYA two Rohingya were killed.cxxvii The Tatmadaw dropped legal action due to the MPC’s GUNFIRE IN COX’S BAZAR intervention and mediation.cxxviii Cox’s Bazar continues to experience gun violence as Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion Though Ye Ni and human rights organizations (RAB) and Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) welcome the Tatmadaw’s decision, Shawn struggle with reported lawlessness near the Crispin of the Committee to Protect refugee camps. On March 2, two different gun Journalists stated that “If Myanmar wants to be fights broke out just hours apart, between taken seriously as a functioning democracy, this security forces and suspected criminals. Eight type of military harassment of independent people were killed, reportedly members of a journalists must stop now.”cxxix local gang called the Zoki Group, said the Senior Assistant Director of Rab ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIVIST CHARGED Headquarters, Shujoy Sarkar.cxxxv One refugee FOR DEFAMATION AGAINST STATE who lives inside the Salbon Rohingya camp The Hpa-an Township court issued a warrant nearby said he woke up to gunshots at 3 a.m. for Saw Thar Baw, a local environmental that continued until 9 a.m.cxxxvi A week later, a activist and member of the Karen Rivers suspected Rohingya drug dealer was killed in a Watch Network. He was charged for gunfight with the BGB; over 200,000 yaba defamation against the state under Section (methamphetamine) pills and a locally made 505(b) of the Myanmar Penal Code, likely gun were recovered from the scene of the because of his participation in a prayer meeting crime.cxxxvii A few days later, on March 12, where the group accused a cement factory of another gunfight broke out between a gang of water pollution or for his participation in robbers and the RAB. Two Rohingya were protests against dam construction and coal killed and three RAB members injured.cxxxviii mining projects in the area.cxxx Since Saw Thar This month’s violence brings the total Rohingya Baw was away on a business trip, however, he gunned down by law enforcement since the did not know exactly what the charges brought beginning of 2019 to 79.cxxxix Though it is against him were, hearing about them through widely recognized that gangs of robbers, drug family and colleagues.cxxxi Only two days later, traffickers, and human smugglers operate in the 335 CSOs released a statement opposing the area, Nur Khan, a rights activist, insisted that case and denouncing the arrest warrant the RAB should avoid killing them, saying issued.cxxxii “Arrests, rather than killings of robber gang

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 15 members, are more effective for law and 5,000 acres, the planned economic zone would justice enforcement in the long run.”cxl be one of the biggest in Myanmar.

UN APPEALS FOR NEARLY $900 MILLION The Kachin State Government signed a FOR ROHINGYA RESPONSE memorandum of understanding (MoU) with a On March 3, the UN and its partners launched Chinese company in May 2018 without the 2020 Joint Response Plan, asking for $877 obtaining consent from locals who would be million in aid for the Rohingya crisis.cxli Funding affected by the project. Furthermore, the MoU will be used for food, shelter, water, education, was never reported to the state parliament and and healthcare.cxlii “Support of the 2020 Joint was implemented by Kachin State Minister Response Plan is essential to safeguarding the Khet Aung under a directive from the Union well-being of Rohingya refugees – both now in Government.cxlv Bangladesh and once it is safe and sustainable for them to return home to Myanmar,” said Although no official reason was given for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo suspension, the project has been mired in Grandi.cxliii controversy since its inception due to the lack of transparency with both the local populations ECONOMY and the Kachin State Parliament. Locals only learned about the project after the MoU had already been signed when officials came to ● Controversial Namjim economic zone in Kachin State suspended, no official reason measure the plots where people live and cxlvi given work. The satellite image below (Figure 6) was taken in March 2019, and shows the ● China provides additional $22 million for peace and social and economic planned site for Namjim. Figures 7a and 7b development initiatives in Myanmar show the progress in construction since 2017. Analysis of the latest satellite imagery indicates ● Several new power plants are on track to that construction is underway but is still in its be completed to satisfy power demand as early stages. According to Irrawaddy journalists, the hot season approaches Chinese construction workers have been in ● Yangon Stock Exchange partially opens to the area since January 2019.cxlvii Figure 7a foreigners to inject much needed capital shows what appears to be a housing ● The Central Bank cuts interest rates to development, possibly to house laborers, and stimulate business, buys dollars to Figure 7b shows more construction, including stabilize, volatile local currency a golf course.

INFRASTRUCTURE AND POWER WATCH

CONSTRUCTION OF NAMJIM ECONOMIC ZONE SUSPENDED Plans for the controversial Nam Jim economic zone on the outskirts or Myitkyina Township, Kachin State, are for now officially suspended, the Kachin State Parliament’s Finance Committee informed the Kachin State Public Land and Monitoring Committee, a CSO, during a meeting on March 16.cxliv At almost

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 16 Figure 6. Satellite Imagery of Namjim, March 2019 Figure 7a. (TOP) Namjim Structure A KIMETRICA, SOURCE: DIGITAL GLOBE Figure 7b. (BOTTOM) Namjim Structure B KIMETRICA, SOURCE: DIGITAL GLOBE

CHINA PROVIDES $6.8 MILLION FOR 22 under construction are in Magway, Magway INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS Region; Shwetaung, Yangon; Kyunchaung, On March 23, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Sagaing; Ahlone, Yangon; Kyaukphyu, Rakhine announced an additional $6.78 million (MMK State; Thanlyin, Yangon; and Thaketa, Yangon. 9.45 billion) investment from China for 22 They are expected to generate more than projects under the Mekong-Lancang 1,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity. Cooperation Initiative.cxlviii China established the Mekong-Lancang Cooperation Special Fund The plants in Alhone and Kyunchaung being for several Southeast Asian nations in 2016 to built by Chinese companies will be powered by promote political, security, economic, and natural gas provided by the Myanmar social development projects through Government. The other projects will generate investment in agriculture, water resources, electricity with imported liquified natural gas.clii education, society and culture, research, Hong Kong-based V-Power Co. says its work information and technology, as well as rule of for the power projects is on schedule. law, human resources, and investment.cxlix However, the China Energy Engineering Corp, From the new funding, $5 million will be spent working on the project in Alhone, is facing on 12 projects chosen by Myanmar’s Ministry some supplier and travel setbacks as a result of of Agriculture, Livestock, and Irrigation to the COVID-19 outbreak.cliii improve connectivity, production capacity Estimates suggest that the country’s power cooperation, cross-border economic needs are growing by 15 to 17 percent every cooperation, water resources, agriculture, and year. Production currently totals 3,566 MW a poverty reduction.cl Details of the other 10 year and demand is expected to increase by projects have not been made public yet. 1,500 MW in 2020, as industry increases and MINISTRY OF ELECTRICITY AND ENERGY more households have access to electricity.cliv CLAIMS POWER PROJECTS ON TRACK As the height of the dry season -- or power cut season as it is colloquially known – approaches, seven new power plants need to be completed to meet increased demand.cli The seven plants

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 17 MYANMAR STOCK EXCHANGE required to follow the foreign exchange OPENS TO FOREIGNERS management regulations and directives of the Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM).clix Myanmar announced that its stock exchange will open to foreigners in the hope that it will CENTRAL BANK CUTS INTEREST attract foreign capital and modernize the RATES economy.clv The Securities and Exchange Commission of Myanmar (SECM) announced Due to the financial and economic impact of that share trading by foreign national residents COVID-19, the CBM reduced interest rates by and non-residents will launch on March 20. 0.5 percent from 8 to 7.5 percent, on March Currently, just five companies are listed on the 16 instead of April 1 as originally planned.clx YSX, and only three are open to international The maximum lending rate for collateralized investors. Among the three, First Private Bank loans and non-collateralized loans will also be only sells shares to foreign financial institutions. lowered by 0.5 percent, from 15.5 percent to The other two are open to retail investors, but 12.5 percent and 15.5 percent.clxi one of them, First Myanmar Investment, carries a foreign investment cap of two percent. The Than Lwin, senior consultant for Kanbawza other, special-economic zone operator Bank, praised the move and said the CBM Myanmar Thilawa SEZ Holdings, has a five needs to be more responsive to the needs of percent limit. This means that, between the the economy to encourage business activity as two, shares available for purchase by foreign is commonly the case in more developed retail investors total around $9 million.clvi economies.clxii Although the CBM’s actions are unlikely to impact people’s lives in any Hideki Matsushita, a Japanese national who noticeable way, it could help banks and heads a local investment company, said the businesses operating in the uncertainty created opening "will be the spark for Myanmar to gain by COVID-19. notice from international investors".clvii Furthermore, an inflow of international capital In another attempt to stabilize the economy, is likely to boost corporate transparency and the CBM has been buying dollars to curb corporate governance as foreign investors inflation rates. The kyat has been appreciating often look for a “well-run and transparent rapidly against the dollar in recent months, company” according to Vicky Bowmen, currently at MMK 1,335 per USD. The director of the Myanmar Centre for exchange rate was MMK 1,537 per USD in Responsible Business.clviii October last year.clxiii

The new rules allow both foreign national In response to the surging kyat and the negative residents and non-residents to open domestic effect this has on foreign trade and investment brokerage accounts at a bank that specializes in and tourism, the CBM bought $9 million on the investment funds. To control foreign domestic market on March10. This involves ownership, the Yangon Stock Exchange (YSX) selling kyat which devalues it and then buying will report monthly to the SECM on gross dollars which raises the dollar value against the amounts of shares bought and sold by resident kyat. The dollar increased by approximately foreign nationals and total outstanding value of MMK 55 on March 10, and has stabilized at shares held by non-resident foreign nationals. around MMK 1,400 for the rest of March.clxiv In terms of capital brought in or out of the country for daily share trading, investors are

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 18 ENDNOTES i Waiyan Moe Myint, Khayamani Win, and Roseanne Gerin, “Myanmar Boosts Travel Restrictions, Locks Down Village, After First COVID-19 Cases,” Radio Free Asia, March 24, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/travel-restrictions-03242020181853.html; Zarni Mann, “Myanmar Imposes Community Quarantines After COVID-19 Patient Visit,” Irrawaddy, March 24, 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-imposes-community-quarantines-covid-19-patient-visit.html ii Reuters, “Myanmar reports first cases of coronavirus,” Reuters, March 23, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-myanmar/myanmar-reports-first-cases-of-coronavirus- idUSKBN21B0HB iii Andrew Nachemson, “Myanmar claimed to be coronavirus-free. Now cases are showing up,” Los Angeles Times, March 26, 2020, https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-26/myanmar-claimed-coronavirus-free-cases- showing-up iv Reuters, “Myanmar reports first cases of coronavirus,” Reuters, March 23, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-myanmar/myanmar-reports-first-cases-of-coronavirus- idUSKBN21B0HB; Waiyan Moe Myint, Khayamani Win, and Roseanne Gerin, “Myanmar Boosts Travel Restrictions, Locks Down Village, After First COVID-19 Cases,” Radio Free Asia, March 24, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/travel-restrictions-03242020181853.html v Waiyan Moe Myint, Khayamani Win, and Roseanne Gerin, “Myanmar Boosts Travel Restrictions, Locks Down Village, After First COVID-19 Cases,” Radio Free Asia, March 24, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/travel-restrictions-03242020181853.html vi “COVID-19 Information,” US Embassy in Burma (Yangon, Myanmar) Updated April 1, 2020. https://mm.usembassy.gov/covid-19-information/ vii Zarni Mann, “Myanmar Imposes Community Quarantines After COVID-19 Patient Visit,” Irrawaddy, March 24, 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-imposes-community-quarantines-covid-19-patient- visit.html; Andrew Nachemson, “Myanmar claimed to be coronavirus-free. Now cases are showing up,” Los Angeles Times, March 26, 2020, https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-26/myanmar-claimed-coronavirus- free-cases-showing-up; Kyaw Ye Lynn, “COVID-19: Myanmar’s slow response faces criticism,” Andalou Agency, March 27, 2020, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/covid-19-myanmar-s-slow-response-faces-criticism/1781357 viii Ibid; Zarni Mann, “Myanmar Imposes Community Quarantines After COVID-19 Patient Visit,” Irrawaddy, March 24, 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-imposes-community-quarantines-covid-19-patient- visit.html ix Thomas Kean, “Expat exodus gathers pace in Myanmar as global pandemic worsens,” Frontier Myanmar, March 22, 2020, https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/expat-exodus-gathers-pace-in-myanmar-as-global-pandemic-worsens x Ibid xi RFA’s Lao, Khmer, and Vietnamese Services et al, “Myanmar Confirms First Two Coronavirus Infections as Migrant Workers Pose New Challenge,” Radio Free Asia, March 23, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/infections-03232020173108.html xii The Irrawaddy, “Border Gate Forced to Open as Myanmar Migrant Workers Leave Thailand Amid COVID-19,” Irrawaddy, March 24, 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/border-gate-forced-open-myanmar-migrant- workers-leave-thailand-amid-covid-19.html xiii Ibid; RFA’s Lao, Khmer, and Vietnamese Services et al, “Myanmar Confirms First Two Coronavirus Infections as Migrant Workers Pose New Challenge,” Radio Free Asia, March 23, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/infections-03232020173108.html xiv AFP, “Migrant worker exodus from Thailand over virus lockdown,” Frontier Myanmar, March 23, 2020, https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/migrant-worker-exodus-from-thailand-over-virus-lockdown xv RFA’s Lao, Khmer, and Vietnamese Services et al, “Myanmar Confirms First Two Coronavirus Infections as Migrant Workers Pose New Challenge,” Radio Free Asia, March 23, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/infections-03232020173108.html xvi Amanda Holpuch, “Myanmar has zero coronavirus cases, claims Aung San Suu Kyi”, The Guardian, March 17 2020. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/myanmar-has-zero-coronavirus-cases-claims-leader-suu-kyi xvii Aung Phay Kyi Soe and Kyaw Soe Htet, “State Counsellor says Myanmar still free of COVID-19” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) March 16 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/state-counsellor-says-myanmar-still-free- covid-19.html xviii Andrew Nachemson and Lun Min Mang, “Myanmar expands travel restrictions”, Frontier Daily Briefing, March 16 2020.

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 19 xix Phil Robertson, “Myanmar Denails Define COVID-19 Response” Human Rights Watch, March 17 2020. https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/03/17/myanmar-denials-define-covid-19-response# xxMinistry of Health and Sports, “Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Surveillance Dashboard (Myanmar)” March 25 2020. (Accessed April 1, 2020) http://mohs.gov.mm/Main/content/publication/2019-ncov xxi Hein Thar, “Coronavirus-testing labatory struggles with resource crunch”, Frontier Myanmar (Yangon, Myanmar) March 24 2020. https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/coronavirus-testing-laboratory-struggles-with-resource-crunch xxii Hmue Angel, “Myanmar govt readies facilities for possible quarantine”, Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) March 23 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/govt-readies-facilities-possible-quarantine.html xxiii Nan Lwin, “Myanmar Prepares Quarantine Centres as Official COVID-19 Count Remains at Zero” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) March 23 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-prepares-quarantine- centers-official-covid-19-count-remains-zero.html xxiv Htoo Thant, “Myanmar military readies 17 hospitals in COVID-19 fight” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) March 23 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-military-readies-17-hospitals-covid-19-fight.html xxv Hmue Angel, “Myanmar govt readies facilities for possible quarantine”, Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) March 23 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/govt-readies-facilities-possible-quarantine.html xxvi Frontier Myanmar, “No immediate plan to lockdown Yangon”, Frontier Myanmar Media Monitor, March 30 2020 xxvii Nyein Nyein, “Rather Than Lockdown, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi Says Some Communities in Myanmar May Face Quarantine”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) March 31 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/rather- lockdown-daw-aung-san-suu-kyi-says-communities-myanmar-may-face-quarantine.html xxviii Thant Myint-U, Comment on social media, March 23 2020, 12.53. https://twitter.com/thantmyintu/status/1241973809411846145 xxix World Bank, “Poverty Report - Myanmar Living Conditions Survey 2017” The World Bank, June 26 2019. xxx Waiyan Moe Myint, Min Thein Aung, and Roseanne Gerin, “Lack of COVID-19 Info Under Myanmar’s Internet Ban Could Doom Rakhine Refugees: NGO,” Radio Free Asia, March 19, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/idps-internet-03192020171442.html; Rina Chandran and Emeline Wuilbercq, “Internet shutdowns 'not justified' in coronavirus outbreak,” Jakarta Post, March 21, 2020, https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/03/21/internet-shutdowns-not-justified-in-coronavirus-outbreak.html xxxi Rina Chandran and Emeline Wuilbercq, “Internet shutdowns 'not justified' in coronavirus outbreak,” Jakarta Post, March 21, 2020, https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/03/21/internet-shutdowns-not-justified-in-coronavirus- outbreak.html xxxii Waiyan Moe Myint, Min Thein Aung, and Roseanne Gerin, “Lack of COVID-19 Info Under Myanmar’s Internet Ban Could Doom Rakhine Refugees: NGO,” Radio Free Asia, March 19, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/idps-internet-03192020171442.html xxxiii Rina Chandran and Emeline Wuilbercq, “Internet shutdowns 'not justified' in coronavirus outbreak,” Jakarta Post, March 21, 2020, https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/03/21/internet-shutdowns-not-justified-in-coronavirus- outbreak.html xxxiv Kyaw Lin Htoon, “ Melons rot, factories shutter: Myanmar’s COVID-19 fallout”, Frontier Myanmar, March 14, 2020. https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/melons-rot-factories-shutter-myanmars-covid-19-fallout xxxv Ibid. xxxvi Ibid. xxxvii Ibid. xxxviii Kyaw Lin Htoon, “ Melons rot, factories shutter: Myanmar’s COVID-19 fallout”, Frontier Myanmar, March 14, 2020. https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/melons-rot-factories-shutter-myanmars-covid-19-fallout xxxix Ibid. xl Min Wathon, “Workers say Yangon garment factories using virus outbreak to dodge disputes”, The Myanmar Times, March 02, 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/workers-say-factories-using-virus-outbreak-dodge-disputes.html xli Kyaw Lin Htoon, “ Melons rot, factories shutter: Myanmar’s COVID-19 fallout”, Frontier Myanmar, March 14, 2020. https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/melons-rot-factories-shutter-myanmars-covid-19-fallout xlii Nan Lwin, “Myanmar Prepared to Ease Coronavirus Impact on Economy: Suu Kyi”, The Irrawaddy, March 11, 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-prepared-ease-coronavirus-impact-economy-suu-kyi.html xliii Kyaw Lin Htoon, “Stimulus moves win praise, but will they be enough?”, Frontier Myanmar, March 29, 2020. https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/stimulus-moves-win-praise-but-will-they-be-enough xliv Ibid. xlv Thiha Ko Ko, “World Bank, ADB to assist in Myanmar’s efforts to deal with COVID-19’s effects”, The Myanmar Times, March 25, 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/world-bank-adb-assist-myanmars-efforts-deal-covid-19s- effects.html

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 20 xlvi RFA, “Myanmar Declares the Arakan Army an ‘Unlawful Organization,’” Radio Free Asia, March 23, 2020. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/military-school-03232020131634.html xlvii Thet Naing and Rikar Hussein, “More Violence Feared as Myanmar Names Arakan Army a Terrorist Organization,” Voice of America, , March 24, 2020. https://www.voanews.com/extremism-watch/more-violence- feared-myanmar-names-arakan-army-terrorist-organization xlviii Network Media Group, “Northern Alliance Rejects Burmes Govt’s Branding of Arakan Army as ‘Terrorist’ Group,” BNI News, March 29, 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/northern-alliance-rejects-burmese-govts- branding-arakan-army-terrorist-group xlix RFA, “Myanmar Says ‘Terrorist’ Arakan Army is Losing Chance to Join Peace Process,” Radio Free Asia, March 26, 2020. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/terrorist-aa-03262020172528.html l Network Media Group, “Tatmadaw Pressures KIO to End Alliance with Arakan Army,” BNI News, March 31, 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/tatmadaw-pressures-kio-end-alliance-arakan-army li RFA, March 26, 2020 lii The Associated Press, “Myanmar Officially Brands Rakhine Rebels a Terrorist Group, New York Times, March 24, 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/03/24/world/asia/ap-as-myanmar-ethnic-rebels.html liii Khin Myat Myat Wai, “Myanmar’s Arakan Army Seizes 30 Soldiers in Chin Fighting,” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar), March 11, 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmars-arakan-army-seizes-30-soldiers-chin- fighting.html; Narinjara, “Battalion Commander Amongst 30 Tatmadaw Troops Captured Following Heavy Fighting in Northern Kyauktaw, AA Announces,” BNI News, March 13, 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/battalion- commander-amongst-30-tatmadaw-troops-captured-following-heavy-fighting-northern liv Narinjara, March 13, 2020 lv Khin Myat Myat Wai, “AA Seks Help for Two Seriously Injured Soldiers,” Myanmar Times, March 13, 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/aa-seeks-help-two-seriously-injured-soldiers.html lvi ACLED Data lvii Mizzima, “UNHCR Voices oncern over Mounting Myanmar Casualties,” Mizzima (Yangon, Myanmar), March 29, 2020. http://mizzima.com/article/unhcr-voices-concern-over-mounting-myanmar-casualties lviii Saw Yi Nanda, “No Timetable for Restoration of Internet Access in Rakhine, Chin,” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar), March 5, 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/no-timetable-restoration-internet-access-rakhine- chin.html lix RFA March 23, 2020. lx RFA March 23, 2020. lxi Andrew Nachemson and Lun Min Mang, “Fighting in Rakhine, Chin States Rages as Myanmar Limits Internet,” Al Jazeera, March 5, 2020. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/fighting-rakhine-chin-states-rages-myanmar-limits- internet-200304033937563.html; Global Voices, Jun. 24, 2019; Swe Lei Mon, “AA Accuses Tatmadaw of Trying to Hide Information,” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar), Jun. 25, 2019 https://www.mmtimes.com/news/aa-accuses- tatmadaw-trying-hide-information.html; Tom Miles, “Myanmar Blackout may be Cover for Gross Human Rights Violations: U.N. Investigator,” Reuters, Jun. 24, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-un-idUSKCN1TP20K lxii Sai Wunna, “Arakan Army Allows Rice into Myanmar’s Paletwa,” Myanmar Times, March 8, 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/arakan-army-allows-rice-myanmars-paletwa.html lxiii Nan Lwin Hnin Pwing, “AA Raids Rice Shipment Intended for Displaced Villagers in Myanmar’s Chin State,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), March 30, 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/aa-raids-rice-shipment- intended-displaced-villagers-myanmars-chin-state.html lxiv Development Media Group, “Chin, Arakanese Armed Groups at Odds over Latter’s Troop Presence in Paletwa,” BNI News, March 23, 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/chin-arakanese-armed-groups-odds-over-latters- troop-presence-paletwa lxv Development Media Group, March 23, 2020; https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/civilians-pay-the-price-of-conflict-in- southern-chin; Kyaw Lin Htoon, “Civilians Pay the Price of Conflict in Southern Chin,” Frontier (Yangon, Myanmar), March 10, 2020. https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/civilians-pay-the-price-of-conflict-in-southern-chin lxvi Khonumthung News, “Arakan Army: Chin and Rakhine People Share the Same Oppressor,” BNI News, March 27, 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/arakan-army-chin-and-rakhine-people-share-same-oppressor lxvii Kyaw Lin Htoon, March 10, 2020 lxviii Oak Hmu Zaw, “CNF Warns AA Not to Make Chin State Their Military Base,” Mizzima (Yangon, Myanmar), March 21, 2020. http://mizzima.com/article/cnf-warns-aa-not-make-chin-state-their-military-base lxix ACLED Data lxx ACLED Data; Network Media Group, “Tatmadaw Launches Offensives Against Ta’ang,” BNI News, March 14, 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/tatmadaw-launches-offensives-against-taang

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 21 lxxi ACLED Data; Network Media Group, “TNLA, Militia Clash During Anti-Drug Campaign in Northern Shan State,” BNI News, March 16, 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/tnla-militia-clash-during-anti-drug-campaign-northern- shan-state lxxii ACLED Data; Shan Herald Agency for News, “Fatalities Reported in Clashes Between TNLA, Pansay militia,” BNI News, March 18, 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/fatalities-reported-clashes-between-tnla-pansay-militia lxxiii ACLED Data; Shan Herald Agency for News, “Burmese Army, RCSS Clash Nearly 20 Times - After Peace Meeting,” BNI News, March 8, 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/burma-army-rcss-clash-nearly-20-times- after-peace-meeting lxxiv Lawi Weng, “Fighting Continues in Shan State Between Myanmar Military and RCSS,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), March 3, 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/fighting-continues-shan-state-myanmar-military- rcss.html lxxv Shan Herald Agency for News, “Burma Army Arrests Eastern Shan State Villagers Following Clashes with RCSS,” BNI News, March 31, 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/burma-army-arrests-eastern-shan-state-villagers- following-clashes-rcss lxxvi Shan Herald Agency for News, “RCSS Withdraws from Mong Kung Camp AFter Burma Army Clashes,” BNI News, March 4, 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/rcss-withdraws-mong-kung-camp-after-burma-army- clashes ; Lawi Weng, March 3, 2020 lxxvii Shan Herald Agency for News, “Mong Kung IDPs Return Home,” BNI News, March 10, 2020 https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/mong-kung-idps-return-home lxxviii ACLED Data lxxix Mon News Agency, “Civilian Killed by Landmine Explosion in Ye Chaung Pyar Region,” BNI News, March 21, 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/civilian-killed-landmine-explosion-ye-chaung-pyar-region lxxx Mon News Agency, March 21, 2020. lxxxi Lawi Weng, “Civilians Killed, Wounded by Landmines in Southern Myanmar,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), March 19, 2020; https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/civilians-killed-wounded-landmines-southern- myanmar.html Network Media Group, “Fatal Landmine Blast Occurs Near NMSP Headquarters,” BNI News, March 21, 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/fatal-landmine-blast-occurs-near-nmsp-headquarters lxxxii Lawi Weng, March 19, 2020 lxxxiii San Yaming Aung, “Myanmar’s Military Retains Important Political Role as NLD’s Key Charter Reforms Fail to Pass”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) March 10 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars- military-retains-important-political-role-nlds-key-charter-reforms-fail-pass.html lxxxiv Nyan Hlaing Lin, “‘A waste of time and money’ - NLD’s doomed bid to change charter draws to a close” Myanmar Now (Yangon, Myanmar) March 21 2020. https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/a-waste-of-time-and-money- nlds-doomed-bid-to-change-charter-draws-to-a-close lxxxv San Yamin Aung, “The Untouchable Articles in Myanmar’s Constitution”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) March 23 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/untouchable-articles-myanmars-constitution.html lxxxvi Kyaw Zwa Moe, “NLD Government No Match for Myanmar Military Chief on Charter Change”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) March 20 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/commentary/nld-government-no-match- for-myanmar-military-chief-on-charter-change.html lxxxvii San Yamin Aung, “The Untouchable Articles in Myanmar’s Constitution” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) March 23 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/untouchable-articles-myanmars-constitution.html lxxxviii San Yamin Aung, “NLD, Ethnic Parties Vote Down Myanmar Military’s Charter Amendment Proposals”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) March 17 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/nld-ethnic-parties-vote- myanmar-militarys-charter-amendment-proposals.html lxxxix Ibid xc Thiri Min Htun and Geoffrey Goddard, “NLD amendment vote upsets ethnic lawmaker” Frontier Myanmar Media Monitor, March 18 2020. xci Sai Wansai, “FAILED CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT: Any benefit for the ethnic nationalities?” Burma News International (Yangon, Myanmar) March 24 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/failed-constitutional- amendment-any-benefit-ethnic-nationalities xcii Mizzima, “People realize the role of Tatmadaw because of constitution amendment deliberations”, Mizzima News (Yangon, Myanmar) March 7 2020. http://mizzima.com/article/people-realize-role-tatmadaw-because-constitution- amendment-deliberations-says-usdp-mp xciii Htet Naing Zaw, “NLD Constitutional Amendments Would Disrupt Democratic Transition: Military MPs” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) March 5 2020. xciv Htet Soe Lin, “NLD sees silver lining in charter change failure” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) March 13 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/nld-sees-silver-lining-charter-change-failure.html

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 22 xcv AFP, “Myanmar army blocks bid to slash parliamentary power base”, Frontier Myanmar (Yangon, Myanmar) March 11 2020. https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/myanmar-army-blocks-bid-to-slash-parliamentary-power-base xcvi Shayna Baucher, “In Myanmar, Democracy’s Dead End” Human Rights Watch, March 10 2020. https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/03/10/myanmar-democracys-dead-end xcviiSean Gleeson, comment on social media. March 11, 16.26. https://twitter.com/seanjgleeson/status/1237678780031750145 xcviii Wai Mar Tun, “Myanmar’s Wa Region to Take Part in 2020 Electionis: UWSA”, Radio Free Asia (Yangon, Myanmar) March 3 2020. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/myanmars-wa-region-03032020163535.html xcix Nan Lwin, “Wa Army Says It’s Willing to Work With Myanmar Govt to Hold Voting in Its Territory” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) March 3 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/wa-army-says-willing-work- myanmar-govt-hold-voting-territory.html c Network Media Group, “‘Many Issues to be Negotiated’ Before Elections Will be Considered in Wa Territory”, Burma News International (Yangon, Myanmar) March 6 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/many-issues-be- negotiated-elections-will-be-considered-wa-territory ci Wai Mar Tun, “Myanmar’s Wa Region to Take Part in 2020 Electionis: UWSA”, Radio Free Asia (Yangon, Myanmar) March 3 2020.https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/wa-army-says-willing-work-myanmar-govt-hold-voting- territory.html cii Moe Moe, “Myanamr’s NLD to Pick General Election Candidates in Late April” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) March 10 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-nld-pick-general-election-candidates-late- april.html ciii Swan Ye Htut, “NLD: Town elders to choose candidates”, Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) March 11 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/nld-town-elders-choose-candidates.html civ PACE, “Citizens’ Political Preferences for 2020”, PACE, July 2019. cv Moe Moe, “Myanamr’s NLD to Pick General Election Candidates in Late April” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) March 10 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-nld-pick-general-election-candidates-late- april.html cvi Sai Wunna, “Pandemic delays Myanmar peace talks” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) March 26 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/pandemic-delays-myanmar-peace-talks.html cvii Ibid cviii Mon News Agency, “Implementation of the National Cease Fire agreement makes progress says NCA-S EAO leader” Burma News International (Yangon, Myanmar) March 11 2020 https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/implementation-national-cease-fire-agreement-makes-progress-says-nca-s-eao- leader cix Mizzima, “UPDJC meeting held”, Burma News International (Yangon, Myanmar) March 14 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/updjc-meeting-held cx Swe Lei Mon, “Tatmdaw agrees to let ethnic armed groups draft own charters”, Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) March 13 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/tatmadaw-agrees-let-ethnic-armed-groups-draft-own- charters.html cxi Centre for Development and Ethnic Studies, “Analysis Paper - The Significance of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s Speech at the Fourth Anniversary of the Signing of the NCA”, CESD, November 7 2019. cxii Shan Herald Agency for News, “Burma Army, RCSS Hold Talks in Naypyidaw”, Burma News International (Yangon, Myanmar) March 18 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/burma-army-rcss-hold-talks-naypyidaw cxiii Sai Wunna, “Tatmadaw, RCSS to to mark territories in bid to avoid clashes”, Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) March 17 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/tatmadaw-rcss-mark-territories-bid-avoid-clashes.html cxiv Telenor, “Blocking of 221 websites in Myanmar based on directive from the authorities,” News Release, March 30, 2020, https://business.library.emory.edu/documents/faq-handouts/chicago-citation-guide-papers.pdf cxv Confidential source, in communication with the authors, March 30, 2020 cxvi Telenor, “Blocking of 221 websites in Myanmar based on directive from the authorities,” News Release, March 30, 2020, https://www.telenor.com.mm/en/article/blocking-221-websites-myanmar-based-directive-authorities cxvii BNI Multimedia Group, “Press release on website blockdown of two Rakhine State-based media groups,” March 29, 2020, https://www.bnionline.net/files/uploads/2020/Statements/29-mar-2020-bni-pressrelease-on-member-websites- blockdown-by-mpt_mytel.pdf cxviii BNI Multimedia Group, “BNI Multimedia Group’s Open Letter to the State Counsellor and President,” April 2, 2020; Myanmar Press Council, Myanmar Press Council press release (12/2020), April 1, 2020.

USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 23 cxix Myanmar Press Council, Myanmar Press Council press release (12/2020), April 1, 2020; Khin Myat Myat Wai, “Police charge another journalist for AA interview,” Myanmar Times, April 3, 2020, https://www.mmtimes.com/news/police-charge-another-journalist-aa-interview.html cxx Khin Myat Myat Wai, “Police charge another journalist for AA interview,” Myanmar Times, April 3, 2020, https://www.mmtimes.com/news/police-charge-another-journalist-aa-interview.html cxxi BNI Multimedia Group, “BNI Multimedia Group’s Open Letter to the State Counsellor and President,” April 2, 2020; RFA’s Myanmar Service, and Roseanne Gerin, Translated by Ye Kaung Myint Maung, “Myanmar Journalist Arrested For Interview With Blacklisted Arakan Army,” Radio Free Asia, march 31, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/journalist-arrested-03312020174749.html cxxii BNI Multimedia Group, “BNI Multimedia Group’s Open Letter to the State Counsellor and President,” April 2, 2020; RFA’s Myanmar Service, and Roseanne Gerin, Translated by Ye Kaung Myint Maung, “Myanmar Journalist Arrested For Interview With Blacklisted Arakan Army,” Radio Free Asia, march 31, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/journalist-arrested-03312020174749.html cxxiii San Yamin Aung, “Myanmar Police Continue Arrests, Interrogations of Reporters Over AA Coverage,” Irrawaddy, April, 1, 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-police-continue-arrests-interrogations- reporters-aa-coverage.html cxxiv Myanmar Press Council, Myanmar Press Council press release (12/2020), April 1, 2020; San Yamin Aung, “Myanmar Police Continue Arrests, Interrogations of Reporters Over AA Coverage,” Irrawaddy, April, 1, 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-police-continue-arrests-interrogations-reporters-aa- coverage.html cxxv BNI Multimedia Group, “BNI Multimedia Group’s Open Letter to the State Counsellor and President,” April 2, 2020 cxxvi The Irrawaddy, “Myanmar Military Case Against Irrawaddy Editor to Move Ahead,” Irrawaddy, March 16, 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-military-case-irrawaddy-editor-move-ahead.html; Kyaw Lwin Oo and Roseanne Gerin, Translated by Ye Kaung Myint Maung, “Myanmar Army Drops Defamation Cases Against The Irrawaddy, Reuters,” March 18, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/defamation-cases- 03182020174509.html cxxvii Kyaw Lwin Oo and Roseanne Gerin, Translated by Ye Kaung Myint Maung, “Myanmar Army Drops Defamation Cases Against The Irrawaddy, Reuters,” March 18, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/defamation- cases-03182020174509.html; Zaw Zaw Htwe, “Myanmar’s Military Ditches Irrawaddy and Reuters Lawsuits,” Irrawaddy, March 18, 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-military-ditches-irrawaddy-reuters- lawsuits.html; Reuters, “Myanmar army sues Reuters over report on deaths of Rohingya women,” Guardian, March 9, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/myanmar-army-sues-reuters-over-report-on-deaths-of- rohingya-women cxxviii Kyaw Lwin Oo and Roseanne Gerin, Translated by Ye Kaung Myint Maung, “Myanmar Army Drops Defamation Cases Against The Irrawaddy, Reuters,” March 18, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/defamation- cases-03182020174509.html; Zaw Zaw Htwe, “Myanmar’s Military Ditches Irrawaddy and Reuters Lawsuits,” Irrawaddy, March 18, 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-military-ditches-irrawaddy-reuters- lawsuits.html cxxix The Irrawaddy, “Myanmar Military Case Against Irrawaddy Editor to Move Ahead,” Irawaddy, March 16, 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-military-case-irrawaddy-editor-move-ahead.html; Kyaw Lwin Oo and Roseanne Gerin, Translated by Ye Kaung Myint Maung, “Myanmar Army Drops Defamation Cases Against The Irrawaddy, Reuters,” March 18, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/defamation-cases- 03182020174509.html cxxx Myat Moe Aung, “Myanmar environmental activist faces arrest,” Myanmar Times, March 9, 2020, https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-environmental-activist-faces-arrest.html cxxxi Ibid cxxxii Myat Moe Aung, “We stand behind eco-activist wanted by police, civic groups say,” Myanmar Times, March 11, 2020, https://www.mmtimes.com/news/we-stand-behind-eco-activist-wanted-police-civic-groups-say.html cxxxiii Mizzima, “Authorities arrest students over Rakhine internet shutdown protest,” Mizzima, February 26, 2020, http://mizzima.com/article/authorities-arrest-students-over-rakhine-internet-shutdown-protest; Development Media Group, “Six students charged over demonstration against internet blackout,” BNI Online, March 8, 2020, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/six-students-charged-over-demonstration-against-internet-blackout cxxxiv Development Media Group, “Six students charged over demonstration against internet blackout,” BNI Online, March 8, 2020, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/six-students-charged-over-demonstration-against-internet- blackout cxxxv Benar News, “Bangladeshi Forces Gun Down 8 Rohingya Criminal Suspects near Refugee Camps,” Radio Free Asia, March 2, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/bangladesh-rohingya-03022020211335.html; Star

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Online Report, “7 robbers killed in Cox’s Bazar gunfight: Rab,” Daily Star, March 2, 2020, https://www.thedailystar.net/country/news/7-robbers-killed-coxs-bazar-gunfight-rab-1875259 cxxxvi Benar News, “Bangladeshi Forces Gun Down 8 Rohingya Criminal Suspects near Refugee Camps,” Radio Free Asia, March 2, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/bangladesh-rohingya-03022020211335.html cxxxvii Abdul Aziz, “Rohingya killed in Cox's Bazar 'gunfight',” Dhaka Tribune, March 9, 2020, https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/nation/2020/03/09/rohingya-killed-in-cox-s-bazar-gunfight-2-2 cxxxviii Kaladan Press, “Two Rohingya refugees killed in gunfight with Bangladesh special forces,” BNI Online, March 19, 2020, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/two-rohingya-refugees-killed-gunfight-bangladesh-special-forces cxxxix Ibid cxl Benar News, “Bangladeshi Forces Gun Down 8 Rohingya Criminal Suspects near Refugee Camps,” Radio Free Asia, March 2, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/bangladesh-rohingya-03022020211335.html cxli Independent Online, “UN appeals for $877 mn for Rohingya refugee response in Bangladesh,” Independent, March, 3, 2020, http://m.theindependentbd.com/printversion/details/239373 cxlii Ibid; BenarNews, “UN Seeks Over $800M to Support Rohingya Refugees in Bangladesh,” Radio Free Asia, March 4, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/bangladesh-rohingya-03042020103637.html cxliii BenarNews, “UN Seeks Over $800M to Support Rohingya Refugees in Bangladesh,” Radio Free Asia, March 4, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/bangladesh-rohingya-03042020103637.html cxliv Kachin News Group, “Nam Kim Economic Zone to be Suspended, CSO Says”, BNI Multimedia Group, March 26, 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/nam-jim-economic-zone-be-suspended-cso-says cxlv Ibid. cxlvi Ibid. cxlvii Nan Lwin, “Kachin Locals in the Dark Over China-Backed Industrial Zone Plan,” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) April 9, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/kachin-locals-dark-china- backed-industrial-zone-plan.html cxlviii Chan Mya Htwe, “China provides $6.7m for 22 projects in Myanmar”, The Myanmar Times, March 26, 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/china-provides-us67-million-22-projects-myanmar.html cxlix Ibid. cl Ibid. cli Chan Mya Htwe, “Power projects on track for completion, ministry says”, The Myanmar Times, March 03, 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/power-projects-track-completion-ministry-says.html clii Ibid. cliii Ibid. cliv Ibid. clv Thiha Ko Ko, “Foreign participation in YSX set to start March 20, officials say”, The Myanmar Times, March 09, 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/foreign-participation-ysx-set-start-march-20-officials-say.html clvi Yuichi Nitta, “Myanmar’s stock market cracks open door to foreigners”, Nikkei Asian Review, March 24, 2020. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Myanmar-s-stock-market-cracks-open-door-to-foreigners clvii Yuichi Nitta, “Myanmar’s stock market cracks open door to foreigners”, Nikkei Asian Review, March 24, 2020. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Myanmar-s-stock-market-cracks-open-door-to-foreigners clviii Ibid. clix Thiha Ko Ko, “Foreign participation in YSX set to start March 20, officials say”, The Myanmar Times, March 09, 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/foreign-participation-ysx-set-start-march-20-officials-say.html clx Htin Lynn Aung, “ Central Bank of Myanmar cuts interest rates by 0.5%”, The Myanmar Times, March 12, 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/central-bank-myanmar-cuts-interest-rates-05.html clxi Ibid. clxii Ibid. clxiiiSithu Aung Myint, “The challenges of a surging kyat” Frontier Myanmar, March 18, 2020. https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/the-challenges-of-a-surging-kyat clxiv Ibid.

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