USAID/BURMA MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT March 2020 Contract Number: 72048218C00004 Myanmar Analytical Activity Acknowledgement This report is made possible by the support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this report are the sole responsibility of Kimetrica and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. This report was written by Kimetrica LLC (www.kimetrica.com) and Mekong Economics (www.mekongeconomics.com) as part of the Myanmar Analytical Activity (MAA) and is therefore the exclusive property of USAID. Melissa Earl (Kimetrica) is the author of this report and is reachable at [email protected] or at Kimetrica LLC, 80 Garden Center, Suite A-368, Broomfield, CO 80020. The author’s views in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. The author would like to thank Harry Ellis, Callum Furness, Steve Hedden, Amber Moffett, and Sophie Turnbull, for their analysis, writing, and visualization contributions. The author would also like to thank Selma Kalousek and Alea Tebbe for their insights and editorial support. MARCH 2020 AT A GLANCE First Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 Reported in Myanmar. After two months of insisting that the COVID-19 virus had not reached Myanmar, the Government announced its first cases this month. As of April 2, there are 20 confirmed cases in the country, but only 534 people have been tested. The Government has resisted a nationwide lockdown, but some townships with confirmed cases have implemented local lockdowns. (Page 1) Government Orders Mandatory Quarantine or Surveillance for Anyone Entering the Country. Due to concerns over the influx of migrant workers from Thailand, on March 16, the Government ordered all returning migrant workers to self- quarantine at home. (Page 2) Thousands of Factory Workers Laid Off as Factories Forced to Suspend Operations or Close. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted supply chains from China and depressed demand in Europe. The Central Bank of Myanmar and the Government announced expansionary monetary and stimulus plans to help ease the economic impact of the pandemic. (Page 4) The Government of Myanmar Declares the Arakan Army (AA) a Terrorist Organization. The designation will have implications for the peace process, NGOs, journalists, and civilians as the Tatmadaw can detain on suspicion of links to the AA. (Page 6) The Internet Blackout in Parts of Northern Rakhine and Chin States Remains in Effect. In March, fighting between the Tatmadaw and the AA increased, as did violence against civilians. Suspicions abound that the Tatmadaw is using the internet blackout to intensify fighting and commit human rights abuses with impunity. (Page 8) Parliament Fails to Pass Constitutional Amendments. Only four out of the 135 proposed constitutional amendments passed. The military’s power, enshrined in the 2008 constitution, remains intact. (Page 11) The United Wa State Army Announces Plans to Work with the Government’s Union Election Commission (UEC) to Hold Elections in Townships Under its Control. Townships known as Special Region No. 2 did not hold elections in 2010 or 2015 because the UEC could not be sure that the elections would be free and fair. (Page 12) The Ministry of Transport and Communications Orders Mobile Companies to Block Websites. The Government blocked 221 websites, including several ethnic news sites, claiming they contribute to misinformation and/or carry content that is explicit or considered sexually explicit content using children. News and human rights organizations argue that the Government is censoring websites it cannot control. (Page 14) The Controversial Namjim Economic Zone in Kachin State Put on Hold. The Chinese-funded project, which is to be the largest economic zone in Myanmar, is opposed by locals and the Kachin State parliament. They accuse the Union Government of not being transparent and failing to report plans for the project to the State Parliament. (Page 16) USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 1 COVID-19 UPDATE a medical certificate to show they have no symptoms of acute respiratory illness before entry and quarantine in a government facility.vi From March 30 until April 13, the Government of Myanmar will not allow international commercial passenger flights into Myanmar. Foreign nationals have been suspended from entering or exiting Myanmar through land borders since March 19. Precautions are being taken across the country. The Health Ministry plans to test anyone with symptoms (not just those who have recently traveled); Keptal Village in Tedim, where the man who was confirmed positive for coronavirus had stayed previously, Figure 1. Illustration of the Coronavirus is on lockdown; travel restrictions are being ALISSA ECKERT & DAN HIGGINS/CDC imposed on Kale, a town in Sagaing on the SOURCE: NEW YORK TIMES border of Chin, where residents of Tedim fled before the village went into lockdown; in FIRST CASE OF CORONAVIRUS Mandalay, restaurants, bars, tea shops, and CONFIRMED IN MYANMAR food shops were ordered shut except for On March 23, the first two cases of the takeaway, and the number of health coronavirus were confirmed in Tedim checkpoints, where temperatures are taken, Township, Chin State and in Yangon.i Both are are increasing; and the Government ordered male, one recently traveled to the US and the ministries that half of their employees work other to the UK.ii Since then, other cases from home.vii among patients who recently returned from Australia and Singapore have been reported, The shutdown in Tedim Township resulted in increasing suspicions that the Government of a spike in the prices of basic necessities, and Myanmar’s previous claims that the country is news of the first confirmed cases has driven virus-free were false and that the virus had consumers in Yangon and other parts of the simply remained undetected due to a lack of country to panic shop.viii testing.iii Investigations are underway to identify individuals who have been in recent With such a drastic shift in the country’s contact with those who tested positive.iv response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many expatriate workers and volunteers left the In response, Tedim Township was shut down, country as flights became more sparse.ix and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is requiring Embassies, NGOs, and foreign companies are anyone traveling to Myanmar from high-risk recalling all non-essential international staff. areas to spend 14 days in a government Those staying are being instructed to work quarantine facility; Myanmar nationals, from home.x Expatriates remaining in the diplomats, and UN employees must provide lab country are reporting a rise in xenophobic results proving the absence of COVID-19 tendencies and suspicion of foreigners. MAA infection within the three days prior to their researchers received reports of agitators using arrival to the country and are subject to a 14- loudspeakers, both in Yangon and in rural parts day home quarantine.v Myanmar nationals need of the country, to encourage people to report USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 1 illegal foreigners to local authorities, landlords to require additional documentation, and some reports of refusing foreigners access to everyday services like public transportation. BORDER CROSSINGS FORCED OPEN AS THOUSANDS OF MIGRANT WORKERS RETURN Thousands of migrant workers returned to Myanmar from Thailand, forcing the previously closed border crossings to reopen. After the number of confirmed COVID-19 infections Figure 2. Migrant Workers Crossing the Myanmar-Thai more than doubled, a Thai Interior Ministry Friendship Bridge THANT ZIN AUNG, REUTERS official announced that land border crossings would stay open until late Monday, March 23, to allow migrants to return home before all of GOVERNMENT HANDLING OF THE CRISIS Thailand’s 91 border crossings (with Myanmar, As the Government attempts to contain public Laos, Cambodia, and Malaysia) close to contain panic over the outbreak of COVID-19, health the spread of the virus.xi experts and political analysts have widely criticized its response. In particular, the Because of the flood of incoming migrant Government’s repeated claim that, up until workers, Thailand and Myanmar were also March 23, Myanmar had no confirmed cases, forced to reopen the second Mae Sot- drew derision from international political Myawaddy Friendship Bridge on Tuesday, pundits.xvi Figure 3 shows the COVID-19 cases March 24, which had just been shut the in Myanmar’s neighboring countries as well as previous day. Nearly 2,000 workers crossed Myanmar’s official cases as of April 5. the border on March 24, according to a politician who was at the border control On March 16, State Counsellor Aung San Suu checkpoint.xii Since March 20, more than Kyi addressed the nation on television and 20,000 migrants have returned to Myanmar claimed that “No one in our country is infected through the Myawaddy Township checkpoint with COVID-19.”xvii Furthermore, in a press alone, and more are still heading toward the conference, government spokesperson Zaw border.xiii Figure 2 is a photograph taken from Htay claimed that the virus had yet to spread social media of the exodus through the in Myanmar due to the lifestyle and diet of its Myawaddy Township checkpoint. The population, and the predominant use of paper Government is calling on all returnees to self- money rather than credit cards.xviii The quarantine at home for two weeks, concerned statements were criticized by observers; Phil that state facilities would not be able to handle Robertson, Deputy Director of the Asia the influx.xiv But according to Aung Kyaw Hein, Division of Human Rights Watch, called the a Tanintharyi Region member of Parliament claims irresponsible as they defied reality and (MP), there are still many illegal frontier gave people in Myanmar a false sense of crossings that may further put the country in security over the outbreak.xix danger, despite the shutting of the borders and the presence of checkpoints.xv USAID.GOV MARCH 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 2 Figure 3.