USAID/BURMA MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT January 2020

Contract Number: 72048218C00004 Myanmar Analytical Activity

Acknowledgement

This report has been written by Kimetrica LLC (www.kimetrica.com) and Mekong Economics (www.mekongeconomics.com) as part of the Myanmar Analytical Activity, and is therefore the exclusive property of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Melissa Earl (Kimetrica) is the author of this report and reachable at [email protected] or at Kimetrica LLC, 80 Garden Center, Suite A-368, Broomfield, CO 80020. The author’s views in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

USAID.GOV DECEMBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 1 JANUARY 2020 AT A GLANCE

Myanmar’s ICOE Finds Insufficient Evidence of Genocide. The ICOE admits there is evidence that Tatmadaw soldiers committed individual war crimes, but rules there is no evidence of a systematic effort to destroy the Rohingya people. (Page 1)

The ICJ Rules Myanmar Must Take Measures to Protect the Rohingya From Acts of Genocide. International observers laud the ruling as a major step toward fighting genocide globally, but reactions to the ruling in Myanmar are mixed. (Page 2)

Fortify Rights Documents Five Cases of Rohingya IDPs Forced to Accept NVCs. The international community and the Rohingya condemned the cards, saying they are a means to keep the Rohingya from obtaining full citizenship rights by identifying them as “Bengali,” not Rohingya. (Page 3)

During the Chinese President’s State Visit to Myanmar, the Two Countries Signed Multiple MoUs. The 33 MoUs that President Xi Jinping cosigned are related to infrastructure, trade, media, and urban development. (Page 4)

NCA Signatories, the Government, and the Tatmadaw Agree to Hold a Fourth Union Peace Conference by April. The JICM agreed to eight points related to continuing negotiations regarding how the National Ceasefire Agreement is implemented. (Page 7)

The Government Announces Reforms to Ease Access to Micro Loans. The Government of Myanmar is merging four state-owned banks to increase the banks’ ability to make small but risky loans, which will benefit micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and farmers. It is also setting up a formal credit market to give MSMEs and farmers increased access to credit. (Page 11)

Fighting Continues Between the Tatmadaw and the AA. While the Tatmadaw and AA continue fighting in Rakhine and Chin States, the ceasefire between the Tatmadaw, the TNLA, and the MNDAA in Shan State appears to be holding. (Page 14)

The Tatmadaw and the KNLA Clash in Hpapun Township, Kayin State. The two have not fought since January 2019. (Page 18)

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 1

SOCIAL ISSUES Local and international human rights groups are calling for the release of the full report in both ● Myanmar’s ICOE released a report stating Burmese and English for review by the global “insufficient evidence” of genocide against community, to better understand how the ICOE the Rohingya. conducted its investigation and reached its ● The ICJ rules that Myanmar must take conclusion. Some are withholding judgement measures to protect the Rohingya from until the report’s release, while others are clearly genocidal acts. skeptical of the findings. For instance, the ● The Government is in the process of report’s executive summary reads “although resettling Rohingya that were detained off some interviewees mentioned rape cases, these the Tanintharyi coast last December. were all [based on] second-hand information ● A Fortify Rights report finds Rohingya heard from someone else” and therefore “there refugees were recently forced into were no credible statements” proving that accepting NVCs. security forces committed rape.iii ● Myanmar’s Anti-Trafficking Police Force recorded more than 200 human trafficking As Cheery Zahau, a human rights activist, cases in Myanmar in 2019. pointed out, however, it is questionable how those supporting the Rohingya could speak openly about the abuses. She noted “people are THE ROHINGYA afraid to tell the truth… How can you be open and honest with a person who is constantly iv INDEPENDENT COMMISSION OF ENQUIRY denying you?” Others, such as the Burmese REPORT RELEASED Rohingya Organization UK, claim the ICOE On January 20, the Independent Commission of investigation was “deeply flawed” and yet Enquiry (ICOE), which was tasked with another attempt by authorities to hide the v investigating accusations of war crimes in Rohingya genocide. Brad Adams, Asia Director Myanmar, provided its report to President Win for Human Rights Watch, stated that the ICOE, Myint and Aung San Suu Kyi, days before the in its finding on war crimes, is admitting “just International Court of Justice (ICJ) announced its enough to try to placate international opinion” first ruling on the genocide charge for the lawsuit while protecting those senior officers who vi brought by The Gambia.i Though the ICOE ordered the atrocities. In an editorial for Asia determined that the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Times, peace and human rights consultant David Army (ARSA), the Tatmadaw, and civilians all Mathieson addresses each of the six crimes committed war crimes in the Rakhine State acknowledged in the report and argues that by conflict, it noted that “there is insufficient acknowledging some wrongdoing, the report, evidence to argue, much less conclude, that the just like Aung San Suu Kyi’s defense at the ICJ, crimes committed were undertaken with the absolves the Tatmadaw of its war crimes.vii intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group,” and that there The Myanmar leadership’s response to the was, therefore, no genocidal intent.ii The full report was mixed. In a press release on January ICOE report – reportedly 461 pages that 21, Myanmar’s president agreed with the ICOE’s includes 31 annexes of case files and nearly 1,500 recommendation for further criminal interviews–- has yet to be released to the public. investigations and prosecutions.viii He forwarded the report to the Union Attorney General to

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 1 investigate and prosecute civilian perpetrators, move, a group of 103 domestic civil society and to the military chief to use in investigating organizations (CSOs), including Athan, Shan military personnel.ix The Attorney General’s Women Development Network, and Yangon Office agreed to do so, according to the Watch, released a joint statement that welcomed recommendations in the ICOE report, but the ICJ’s decision: “We understand very clearly military officials said further study is needed that the ICJ case against Myanmar is directed before any sort of tribunals can take place.x toward those responsible for using political power and military might, and not to the people Senior General Min Aung Hlaing announced that of Myanmar.”xv if military personnel should be prosecuted, it will be done in military courts and those accused of Meanwhile, the Government reacted by issuing a human rights abuses will have the right to defend statement insisting that the ICJ still needs to themselves.xi Despite claims that all reach a “factually correct” conclusion on investigations will be announced to the media, whether genocide took place in Rakhine State, Myanmar’s military justice system is opaque and with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs claiming the holds secret tribunals. General Min’s ICJ gave a “distorted picture of the situation.”xvi announcement brought criticism, including from In an op-ed for the Financial Times, Aung San Suu Thar Aye, a Rohingya activist and politician, who Kyi reiterated the Government’s position that believes soldiers should be tried in civil courts to the FFM’s findings of genocide were because it allow for a more transparent process that would relied too much on testimony from refugees, ensure justice for civilian victims.xii stating that international courts can be "attached to specific testimonies of victimisation".xvii ICJ RULES MYANMAR MUST TAKE MEASURES TO PROTECT ROHINGYA FROM GENOCIDE Ethnic CSOs and EAOs in the country remained On January 23, the ICJ ruled that Myanmar pessimistic, believing that the ICJ findings had no should take measures to protect the Rohingya teeth. One organization told MAA researchers, from genocidal acts. In the ruling, the ICJ handed “Many civil society organizations in Burma down four mandates: i) that Myanmar prevent believe the UN ICJ hearings are for politics. Of further killing or serious injury of the Rohingya; course, we hope but we don’t see anything ii) that the Tatmadaw neither harm nor conspire changing that will help ethnics [sic] anywhere… to commit genocide against the Rohingya; iii) that Our guess is that the world will applaud the evidence is preserved; and iv) that Myanmar rulings as a step to democracy. We see this is not report on compliance to these measures until a a good thing because the world will mistakenly final decision is passed.xiii The ICJ decision think our situation is improving but it is not.” emphasized that the court was not making a decision on whether Myanmar committed The Government of Myanmar has yet to issue a genocide, only on whether these provisional statement on whether it plans to comply with the measures were to be imposed. imposed measures. If it refuses, The Gambia, who brought the case to the ICJ, can refer the Some domestic and international human rights case to the UN Security Council. It is expected, organizations lauded the ruling, calling it a however, that China would block such any “landmark” decision, while the Government of implementation.xviii The UN Special Rapporteur Myanmar rejected it, claiming it was based on on Human Rights in Myanmar urged both China subjective reporting.xiv In a bold and intrepid and Russia, who have supported Myanmar in the

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 2 Rohingya crisis, to join other nations in calling for towns in which they have friends or family to Government accountability.xix receive them.xxv

Human rights advocates are now calling for the ROHINGYA FORCED TO ACCEPT international community to apply more pressure NATIONAL VERIFICATION CARDS on Myanmar to comply with the ruling. The The human rights organization Fortify Rights International Campaign for the Rohingya claimed it has recently documented five cases of released a statement saying “We urge Rohingya IDPs who were either forced or governments to impose tough sanctions on the coerced into accepting the highly contentious Myanmar military and its business empire… We National Verification Card (NVC).xxvi The NVC further call on corporations to end any business scheme is criticized as a means to keep the relationships with companies owned or Rohingya from having full citizenship rights by controlled by the Burmese army. There can no identifying them on the card as “Bengali,” thus longer be ‘business as usual’ with the not acknowledging them as ethnic Rohingya xx perpetrators of genocide.” On January 14, the native to Myanmar, but rather as immigrants.xxvii Burma Campaign UK, a human rights organization known for its “Dirty List” of The press release by Fortify Rights states international companies working with the individuals were required to sign the NVC form Tatmadaw, published a “Boycott List.” In it, despite not understanding Burmese, the language Burma Campaign provides a comprehensive list the form uses, or immigration officers filled out of military-owned companies’ products and the form for them.xxviii One Rohingya man was brands so that people can avoid purchasing quoted as saying, “There is no value in the NVC. xxi goods and services from the Tatmadaw. Here, in Rakhine State, it’s very difficult. I can’t travel or work. The government is restricting us 172 ROHINGYA CAUGHT OFF all the time,” reinforcing doubts that had been TANINTHARYI COAST NOW BEING expressed about the NVC program as a solution RESETTLED IN RAKHINE to the citizenship issue, which is the main sticking On December 15, 2019, Myanmar’s navy point with the Rohingya population.xxix detained 172 Rohingya off the coast of Tanintharyi Region, likely traveling from the MORE THAN 200 HUMAN refugee camps in Bangladesh.xxii One of the TRAFFICKING CASES RECORDED detainees said “We are afraid of coming to IN 2019 Myanmar. It is not okay to live in Bangladesh either. That’s why we were going to Malaysia to Figures released this month by the Anti- work.”xxiii Roughly 17 were taken to Thae Trafficking Police Force state that Myanmar Chaung camp while the rest were taken to recorded a total of 239 human trafficking cases Ngakhuya camp, a processing site for returning in 2019, involving 358 victims and charges filed refugees in Rakhine State.xxiv against732 perpetrators.xxx Of the 239 trafficking

cases, 196 involved China as a destination, and As of January 20, 29 refugees were accepted for 188 of them were cases of forced marriage.xxxi re-entry into Burma under the Union Enterprise Most originated in either Yangon Region or Shan for Humanitarian Assistance, Resettlement, and State, including a recent incident where two Development program, and returned to the ethnic Kachin girls were trafficked to China from villages where they previously resided, or to

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 3 northern Shan State.xxxii Poverty, a lack of POLITICS employment opportunities, and hardship tend to be the primary drivers of trafficking in Myanmar, ● During Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state but in northern states, conflict exacerbates visit, Myanmar and China signed 33 MoUs. xxxiii people’s vulnerability. ● The USDP used nationalist, pro-Buddhist rhetoric in a series of statements criticizing IDPS ACROSS RAKHINE TOP the NLD-led Government. 100,000 AND FACE SHORTAGES ● At the JICM of the NCA-signatory EAOs, the Government, and the Tatmadaw As of January 20, more than 100,000 people committed to holding a fourth Union Peace were living in IDP camps in Rakhine State, and Conference by mid-2020. are facing shortages of basic commodities and ● The Yangon Regional Government faced services like healthcare and schooling.xxxiv The criticism from MPs, government watchdogs, Tainnyo camp in Mrauk-U Township, which and the Auditor-General over a number of houses 3,000 displaced persons, has been financial irregularities in its 2017-18 expense experiencing a water shortage since report. December.xxxv As the dry season continues, ● Two charter amendment bills drafted by the wetlands and ponds are drying up, forcing the Charter Amendment Committee received displaced to ask for water from host villages or backing from MPs to be debated and voted use dirty water collected elsewhere.xxxvi Children on during the current session of the national in several IDP camps are suffering from acute legislature. malnutrition and malnutrition-related

xxxvii illnesses. According to Rakhine State MP FOREIGN RELATIONS Htoot May, more than 300 villagers seeking refuge in the town of Ann are living in “desperate XI JINPING VISIT TO MYANMAR conditions;” the Government has yet to build a Amid much national and international fanfare, temporary camp and people are forced to sleep China’s President Xi Jinping visited Myanmar on on the ground in makeshift shelters.xxxviii January 17-18, coinciding with 70 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries. It was the first state visit by a Chinese leader to Myanmar since 2001.xxxix

During a meeting held between Xi Jinping and Aung Sang Suu Kyi on January 18, China and Myanmar agreed to 33 Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) on issues related to infrastructure, trade, and urban development.xl

Some of the more notable MoUs include: shareholder and concession agreements on the development of the Kyaukphyu deep sea-port; an agreement for accelerated negotiations on the China-Myanmar Border Economic Zone, including a railway connecting border-town Muse

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 4 to Kyaukphyu; and the development of the New was instrumental in making the deal when he was Yangon City project.xli Other MoUs related to Vice President. xlvii the planned US$2.6 billion Integrated LNG power project in Mee Laung Gyaing, In an interview with The Irrawaddy, Dr. Sean Ayeyarwady, a feasibility study for the Bagan- Turnell, Economic Advisor to Aung San Suu Kyi, Mandalay railway and a cooperation agreement dismissed the idea of reviving the Myitsone Dam. between National Radio and Television In a strongly-worded statement, Turnell claimed Administration of China and Ministry of the dam was now “redundant” and called it a Information of Myanmar.xlii project “of another time and place.”xlviii While Turnell’s view does not represent Government Xi Jinping’s visit strengthened the relationship policy, it is unusual for a figure close to the between Myanmar and China, and underscored Government to publicly denounce the project. Myanmar’s continued commitment to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It is notable, however, CHINA’S MIXED RELATIONSHIPS WITH that no new projects were announced. Since EAOS AND ETHNIC POLITICAL LEADERS MoUs are not legally binding and many of the China’s relationship with Myanmar’s EAOs was details of the Myanmar-based BRI projects are also in the spotlight during President Xi Jinping’s yet to be agreed upon, the purpose of the visit visit. China has maneuvered to take on a key role was largely symbolic.xliii in the peace process and thus maintains relations with many of the EAOs, negotiating with the MYITSONE DAM Government and the Tatmadaw and often acting The future of the highly controversial Myitsone as a broker between the different sides.xlix Dam project was of particular interest during Xi Jinping’s visit. The project was suspended in 2011 Several EAOs based near the Myanmar-Chinese due to widespread concerns over its impact on border issued statements welcoming the the environment and on local communities.xliv Chinese leader. The KIO, the National National and local protests against the dam took Democratic Alliance Arm (NDAA), and the place in the wake of Beijing’s efforts to revive its United Wa State Army (UWSA) all expressed development.xlv Since taking power, the NLD has hope that China’s visit would contribute to been largely silent on the issue, refusing to either stability in the region and move the peace l terminate the project or announce its process forward. Reportedly, all three groups resumption. have strong links with China which provide li weapons, ammunition, and technical support. On January 15, close to 40 CSOs issued an open During a meeting with the Tatmadaw’s letter to Xi Jinping, urging the permanent Commander-in-Chief, General Min Aung Hlaing, suspension of the development of the dam.xlvi In on January 18, Xi Jinping denied that China lii the statement, the CSOs claimed that Chinese supplies any weapons to EAOs. Former MP Ye liii projects are threatening the livelihoods of local Htun and political analysts dispute the claim. communities and causing significant environmental and social problems. The letter Other ethnic groups called for a more cautious warned that relations between Myanmar and approach to relations between Myanmar and China would be damaged if the Myitsone Dam China, highlighting the potential negative impact project went ahead. Xi Jinping is believed to be of Chinese investment on local communities. For particularly wedded to the project, because he example, ahead of Xi Jinping’s visit, the Shan

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 5 Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) country. A Rakhine political activist with called for stronger local consultation on the expertise on national politics interviewed by implementation of BRI projects.liv MAA researchers that the USDP is using a variety of methods such as speeches, interviews, Similarly, the Kachin State People’s Party (KSPP) and talk show panels to draw attention to Aung declared that it would not meet with Chinese San Suu Kyi’s poor performance on the global officials during President Xi Jinping’s visit, stage. The activist claims that the USDP is trying claiming that to do so would harm the party’s to convince people to vote for nationalists, “to image among Kachin communities due to their counteract the challenges of the country.” opposition to the Myitsone Dam.lv On January 5, former President Thein Sein re- MYANMAR AND JAPAN AGREE ON entered the public arena to deliver a speech at DEVELOPMENT LOANS the USDP headquarters in Nay Pyi Taw, warning On January 21, Japanese Ambassador Maruyama of the dangers of “neo-colonialism” in Ichiro and the Myanmar Deputy Minister for Myanmar.lix Thein Sein called for voters to elect Planning, Finance and Industry, Maung Maung the party which best protects race, religion, and Win, signed four Official Development the military in the upcoming election. The former Assistance (ODA) loans totaling $1.4 billion.lvi USDP leader claimed that the country is being The largest loan of 45.9 billion yen ($419 million) “devoured” by outside interests under the guise will renew and upgrade Yangon’s sewer of protecting human rights and democracy.lx network.lvii A loan of 39 billion yen ($356 million) will improve nationwide regional infrastructure Subsequently, on January 14, Khin Yi, a member development such as roads, bridges, and water of the USDP’s central executive committee, and power supply facilities, with a particular accused the Government of internationalizing focus on Rakhine, Kayin, Mon, and Chin States the Rakhine crisis and of allowing foreign groups and Tanintharyi Region.lviii The other two loans to intervene in Rakhine State due to its focus on will fund urban development in Yangon city and human rights, whereas the USDP’s approach was power distribution. All four projects are on the rule of law and security when it was in expected to be completed by the end of the Government.lxi In response, spokesperson for decade. the NLD Myo Nyunt said that it was inevitable that the international community would become Although the timing of the agreement between involved in the Rakhine crisis and that it had set Japan and Myanmar may be coincidental, coming up the Kofi Annan commission to address the on the heels of President Xi Jinping’s visit to Nay issue. Pyi Taw, the provision of substantial loans from one of China’s geo-strategic rivals suggests that The NLD faced further nationalist criticism when the Government is trying to diversify its strategic USDP politicians called out Yangon Chief regional alliances. Minister Phyo Min Thein for his use of the term “Rohingya,” a controversial term in Myanmar.lxii ELECTION 2020 UPDATE The NLD’s chief minister used it when responding to reports that Rohingya people used USDP TARGETS NLD the Yangon Bus Service to enter the Ayeyarwady In January, several USDP members attacked the Region. In a statement, the USDP censured the NLD-led Government over the state of the chief minister’s usage of the word and claimed

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 6 that the NLD could not protect the country framework for NCA implementation, the against the ostensible threat of increasing formation of a working group to interpret terms Islamification. used in the NCA, and a commitment to hold a Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) The USDP’s criticism of NLD politicians and its and JMC (Joint Monitoring Committee) meetings focus on nationalism seems to be the party’s within the next two months.lxvii campaign strategy ahead of the November general election. According to an editorial in Most significantly, the JICM agreed to hold a Frontier, by attempting to portray the NLD as fourth 21st Century Panglong/Union Peace weak on protecting national interests, the USDP Conference (UPC) by the middle of the year.lxviii is trying to “harness fierce nationalism as a way The UPC is the chief formal political dialogue back into power.” lxiii mechanism to advance a Union accord. The Government would like progress on the formal PEACE PROCESS peace talks before the upcoming general election in November but the EAOs have been JOINT IMPLEMENTATION COORDINATION withholding participation until process concerns MEETING are resolved. A member of the Karen National The Joint Implementation Coordination Meeting Union (KNU) expressed concern to MAA (JICM), a deadlock-breaking body of the highest researchers that this month’s peace talks were levels, convened on January 8.lxiv The 10 EAO held simply to keep the process alive and that the signatories to the NCA, representatives from EAO leadership is “stuck again in the old peace the Government, and the Tatmadaw discussed process trap.” steps that may lead to a resumption of the formal peace process negotiations after being on pause NORTHERN ALLIANCE for nearly 18 months. The JICM decisions can be While progress was made on talks with NCA- summarized as agreement to discuss the signatories, further discussions with the problems with the NCA implementation but did Northern Alliance were delayed until February not resolve any of said problems. due to the Chinese New Year celebrations.lxix According to Lamai Gum Ja, spokesperson for At the JICM, Aung San Suu Kyi called on all NCA the Peace-talk Creation Group, the members of signatories to take responsibility for the Northern Alliance are ready to sign bilateral implementing its principles, and warned against ceasefires with the Government if it agrees to EAOs only “implementing what [they] prefer.”lxv three demands: to create a conflict resolution The leader of the Peace Process Steering Team committee that includes Chinese representation, (PPST), which comprises the ten NCA-signatory to release all people under government and EAOs, stated that the peace process must move ethnic group detention, and to stop arresting forward in 2020, and called for non-NCA people who make contact with the EAOs under signatory EAOs to also partake in talks.lxvi the Unlawful Associations Act.lxx

JICM attendees agreed to eight points aimed at The January meetings between stakeholders resuming peace negotiations, including a involved in the peace process are outlined below.

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 7 PEACE PROCESS-RELATED MEETINGS - JANUARY 2020

DATE WHO WHERE OUTCOMES

1/4/20 The Tatmadaw Nay Pyi Taw ● Senior General Min Aung Hlaing accused some EAOs of not being sufficiently committed to peacelxxi

1/7/20 PPST Nay Pyi Taw ● The ten NCA-signatory EAOs committed to holding the fourth Union Panglong Peace Conference by the middle of the year as part of their negotiation strategy for the JICM meeting later in the monthlxxii

1/7/20 RCSS, Aung San Suu Nay Pyi Taw ● Informal discussions with no reported major outcomeslxxiii Kyi, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

1/7/20 China’s special envoy Mongla, Shan State ● Meeting held ahead of President Xi Jinping’s visit to for Asia affairs and Myanmarlxxiv the NDAA

1/8/20 JICM Nay Pyi Taw ● Agreement on eight points aimed at resuming peace negotiations ● Commitment to hold the fourth Union Panglong Peace Conference by the middle of the year, and to hold a UPDJC and Joint Monitoring Committee within two monthslxxv

1/8/20 NMSP NMSP Headquarters, ● NMSP accused the Government and the Tatmadaw of lacking Ye Township, Mon the political will to cooperate with ethnic parties and to build State a federal unionlxxvi

1/10/20 China’s special envoy KIA headquarters, ● Chinese representatives urged the KIO to engage in further for Asia affairs, the Laiza, Kachin State talks with the Government and to ensure stability along the KIA/KIO and the AA border with Chinalxxvii

1/17/20 PPST Chiang Mai, Thailand ● KNU confirmed its willingness to re-enter into formal peace talks, pending expected changes to the NCA.lxxviii ● National political dialogue between all stakeholders should be held ahead of the next Union Peace Conferencelxxix ● NCA non-signatory EAOs will be invited to the upcoming framework preparation meeting in an attempt to increase inclusivitylxxx

CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM On January 27, the Union Parliament Speaker presented and distributed two charter The Union Parliament is likely to vote on amendment bills to all MPs; 351 MPs out of 660 constitutional reform during the current session voted to forward the bills to Parliament, well of the national legislature. above the required threshold of 20 percent.lxxxi During the current national legislative session, MPs are scheduled to debate and vote on the

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 8 two bills.lxxxii Upon submission of the bills, a The Yangon Government distributed only brief committee of MPs was set-up to study the summaries to lawmakers ahead of the Auditor- amendments and report back to Parliament by General’s address to Parliament. Yangon Watch mid-February.lxxxiii alleged that the actions of the Yangon Government were “undemocratic,.” and The bills primarily focus on reducing the role of demanded the full report be presented to all the military in the Government by gradually lawmakers, as required by the 2018 Union decreasing its share of seats in Parliament and by Auditor-General Law. lxxxviii changing the threshold for passing of constitutional amendments to two thirds of all In her address, the Auditor-General highlighted MPs. One of the bills also proposes to remove several irregularities in regional government Article 59(f), which bars a person whose spouse spending, including agreeing to deals with and children are foreign nationals from becoming favorable terms for “privileged” contractors and President.lxxxiv A constitutional expert who failing to collect penalties from several spoke to MAA researchers said that although the companies.lxxxix The Government did not collect amendments are unlikely to pass, they will a 10 percent late fee from Anawmar Group for provide a platform for the NLD to argue it was a three-month delay in payment for the annual thwarted by the military ahead of the November lease of the Secretariat, the historic colonial general election.lxxxvlxxxvi building in downtown Yangon. The Auditor- Social media analysis conducted by MAA General also claimed that the Yangon researchers between June and September 2019, Government leased public land to private suggests that while people support a reduction companies well below market rates and vastly of military involvement in the legislature, online overspent on several urban projects.xc critics of the NLD point to the bill to remove Article 59(f) as proof that constitutional reform In parliamentary debates following the Auditor- is just a political tool and a ploy by the NLD to General’s report, the Finance, Planning and give Aung San Suu Kyi more power. Economy Committee noted that the Yangon Government’s spending had breached financial CORRUPTION WATCH regulations and may have violated the Anti- Corruption Law,xci which states that the loss of YANGON GOVERNMENT ACCUSED OF public funds can be prosecuted under corruption FISCAL IRREGULARITIES charges. Lawmakers demanded an explanation The Yangon Regional Government was accused from the Government, accusing it of offering of misappropriating public funds and lack of privileged access to Anawmar Group. The transparency pertaining to the Auditor-General’s committee chair Daw Sandar Min claimed that in financial report for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. doing so, the Government may be in breach of Speaking to the Regional Parliament on January Article 3 of the Anti-Corruption Law. The USDP 8, the Auditor-General Khin Than Hla presented originally gave Anawmar, whose owners the findings of her report and admonished the allegedly have connections to the Tatmadaw, a Yangon Government for limiting access to the 50-year lease for the Secretariat building.xcii full report to just Yangon Chief Minister Phyo Min Thein and Yangon Parliament Speaker Tin Muang Tun.lxxxvii

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 9 EX-TANINTHARYI CHIEF MINISTER FACES for FY 2018/19, marginally higher than the 6.2 CORRUPTION CHARGES percent in FY 2017/18.xciv In FY 2019/20, GDP is The former Chief Minister of Tanintharyi Region, expected to increase slightly to 6.4 percent.xcv It Lei Lei Maw, will appear in court in February to is anticipated that GDP growth will remain face charges of bribery and corruption after a positive and steady despite the downside risks as regional court accepted all charges filed against regional and global growth slows. In addition, her by the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) uncertainty linked to the continuing crisis in in March 2019.xciii The ACC claims that while she Rakhine State and the 2020 general election may was Chief Minister, Lei Lei Maw significantly hinder foreign investment.xcvi The World Bank overpaid the private company Global Grand also warns that the economy has yet to reach its Service (GGS ) for public services, and awarded full potential, as low wages and inadequate GSS a number of contracts on privileged terms. education and training depress labor If found guilty, Lei Lei Maw could face up to 15 productivity. years in prison. The boom in the service sector and the more ECONOMY traditional manufacturing sector are the driving forces behind GDP growth. Services expanded

by 8.4 percent in FY 2018/19, while ● The World Bank’s Myanmar Economic manufacturing continues to boost the industry Monitor highlights GDP growth of 6 sector, which increased by 6.4 percent.xcvii The percent, driven by an increase in tourism sector is slowly improving as the manufacturing, tourism, and the service Government continues to ease visa restrictions, sector. Impediments include an economic but tourists tend to be from neighboring slowdown in China and a tense political countries rather than from the more affluent situation. West, so tourism is not expanding as quickly as ● The Government is trying to encourage the other sectors. lending by merging state-run banks and setting up a formal credit market. The Government is cracking down on “zero- ● KBZ Bank takes the owner of Myanmar’s budget tours” – where Chinese companies Industrial Port in Yangon to court for organize and charge for tourist packages before nonpayment of a loan totaling more than travel, which means all money flows to China $221.4 million. It is thought to be the without benefitting Myanmar’s economy.xcviii This highest-ever loan default in Myanmar. means the government is ensuring tax is paid on ● A new law was introduced to curb imports all activities organized through these tours and aimed at supporting domestic production. things are paid for in cash instead of Chinese digital currency apps and prepaid vouchers.

THE WORLD BANK MYANMAR Despite the importance of agriculture, growth in ECONOMIC MONITOR 2019 the sector continues to be sluggish, increasing by

1.6 percent in FY 2018/19. This figure is expected The World Bank’s Myanmar Economic Monitor to remain stable as product and export for 2019, released in January, presents an diversification improves.xcix optimistic view of the economy, with GDP growth estimated at approximately 6.3 percent

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 10 Other macroeconomic indicators remain mixed. one-year loans to farmers at reduced interest The trade balance briefly went positive in Q2, rates so they can grow crops of their choice but slipped back into a deficit in Q3 as exports beyond just rice; loans will then be based on the declined and imports rose. Most imports are crops that they cultivate.ciii Details about consumer goods, industrial raw materials, and implementation, especially the loss-making investment products, which indicates a growth in component, are not clear. A similar loan system consumer demand. Inflation peaked at 11 has been very successful in Thailand, and percent in July, as rising food and energy costs Myanmar is expected to closely adhere to that drove prices up.c Interviews with KIs about the model. election across Myanmar indicate that rising prices could factor into people’s voting decisions. In the second phase, the Central Bank of Myanmar will create a credit guarantee The World Bank report argues that Myanmar’s corporation (CGC) to spread the risk of farmers and business owners who cannot afford current economic outlook remains positive as the loan collateral requirements. The aim is for the country continues to develop and consumer CGC to take on 80 percent of the risk associated demand increases. Investment is expected to with a loan, and the bank will cover the remaining keep rising, especially in telecommunications and 20 percent.civ The exact details have yet to be transport infrastructure. Business is also worked out, and it is expected that forming the expected to expand as foreign investment CGC will take two to three years. continues, and regulations surrounding the banking sector are progressively loosened. The Economist Sean Turnell hailed the reform as economic slowdown in China and the continuing “transformative” and a “signature reform,” fallout from the tense political situation in saying that farmers and the poorest segments of Myanmar will likely have an effect on the the population will benefit most.cv Roman economy and should still be watched.ci Vakulchuk, Research Associate at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, was more BANKING UPDATE reserved, telling MAA researchers that reducing the role of the state in Myanmar’s economy GOVERNMENT PLANS TO MERGE STATE- would take decades of institutional change.cvi RUN BANKS Union Minister of Planning, Finance and Industry, NEW LAW WILL HELP INTRODUCE A Soe Win, recently announced plans to merge FORMAL CREDIT MARKET four government-backed banks -- Myanmar The Ministry of Finance, Planning and Industry is Economic Bank, Myanmar Foreign Trade Bank, currently working, with the help of the Myanmar Foreign Investment Bank, and International Finance Corporation (IFC), on the Myanmar Agricultural Development Bankcii-- Secured Transactions Law. The goal is to which all facilitate loans to micro, small, and introduce a formal credit market that would give medium sized enterprises (MSMEs), and to borrowers and MSMEs better access to loans farmers. using a broad range of ‘movable’ assets -- as opposed to immovable assets, like real estate and The first phase will merge the Myanmar land -- as collateral.cvii The law requires Economic Bank and the Myanmar Agricultural registration of movable collateral to allow for Development Bank, to create a loss-making recourse in the event of disputes and lending scheme that will involve providing flexible nonpayment of loans. The new law would benefit

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 11 borrowers who do not own land or property to least five times. KBZ initiated legal proceedings use as collateral. Banks are reluctant to lend to in June 2018 but withdrew them when the such borrowers, making access to finance defendant promised to pay. Having failed to do difficult, especially for women who are often not so, the KBZ demanded repayment once more in registered owners of land or property. December 2018. The accounts were officially closed in January 2019.cx The World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index underscored the difficulty in accessing credit as a This case highlights a much wider problem: the hurdle. In its 2019 report, the World Bank noted country is experiencing high rates of non- that the number of loans in Myanmar during 2019 performing loans and businesses and banks are had actually declined.cviii The new law points to struggling to comply with the Central Bank of the Myanmar Government’s efforts to make Myanmar’s new prudential rules introduced in access to loans easier. 2017. The new law required banks to reduce overdraft loans to a maximum of 50 percent of KBZ BANK SUES YANGON PORT their portfolio by July 2018, 30 percent by July OPERATOR OVER MAJOR DEBTS 2019 and 20 percent by July 2020, primarily by KBZ Bank is suing businessman Ko Ko Htoo and converting them to term loans with a maximum Myanmar Annawa Swan A Shin Company Limited maturity of three years. The regulations also (MAS), the owners of Myanmar Industrial Port in require banks do not lend to a single client an Yangon, over an alleged MMK 326 billion ($221.4 amount that would exceed 20 percent of the million) in unpaid debts and interest, in what is bank’s core capital.cxi thought to be Myanmar’s largest ever loan default.cix MAS owns and operates the Myanmar IMPORTS Industrial Port in Yangon, one of the country’s busiest ports, and the company is thought to be On December 24, Parliament passed the Law to the largest private sector debtor in Myanmar. Prevent an Increased Quantity of Imports, which aims to increase the competitiveness of the Court proceedings began in December 2019, domestic manufacturing sector by controlling the with KBZ’s lawyers detailing how in 2010 Ko Ko quantity of imports.cxii The law defines an Htoo and MAS overdrafted MMK7.2 billion and “increased quantity of imports” as “a quantity of MMK140 billion ($5 million and $96.3 million), any kind of imports into Myanmar significantly respectively, at an interest rate of 17 percent, higher than the amount of domestically produced which was reduced to 13 percent in 2017. By the goods that are similar or directly time KBZ called in the debt in 2017, Ko Ko Htoo competitive.”cxiii The Government hopes to had increased the overdraft on more than 20 reduce the trade deficit from $1.1 billion to $500 occasions, and MAS had raised its overdraft at million per year.cxiv

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 12 DOCUMENT OF THE MONTH

The World Bank recently published its Enabling the Business of Agriculture (EBA) 2019 report, which ranked Myanmar 91 out of 101 countries.cxv The EBA score assesses the extent to which government regulations and policies facilitate a country’s agriculture, and consider eight quantitative indicators across the agriculture value chain.cxvi The report showcases a link between a sound regulatory environment and improvements in yields and reductions in poverty levels.

The report showed a strong link between a high EBA score, higher yields, and lower poverty levels. The correlation between yield, poverty and the EBA score can have significant repercussions for Myanmar, since agriculture is the backbone of the economy, contributing to roughly 38 percent of GDP and employing 70 percent of the labor force.cxvii However, compared to other countries in the region, Myanmar’s agricultural yield remains low and its dependence on labor high, due to a lack of certified seeds, insufficient agricultural research and extension services, and poor infrastructure and low irrigation.cxviii

The findings of the EBA report are partly contradicted by other evidence. According to Ben Belton, a lead researcher at Michigan State University, agricultural diversity, wages, and machination have rapidly grown in recent years in several regions of the country.cxix A local agricultural expert who spoke to MAA researchers said that the increase in rural productivity in some sectors is likely the result of global market fluctuations rather than a deliberate result of government policy. This underlies the conclusions of the EBA report, which calls for a stronger regulatory environment.

The EBA score fails to capture vital indicators that impact yield because the score is focused on government regulations and policies, limiting the analysis, and not painting a comprehensive picture of the agriculture sector. There is, therefore, no guarantee that any change made to the regulatory environment would translate into higher yield or reduce poverty.

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 13 CONFLICT On January 1, the Arakan Army (AA), Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Myanmar ● Continues between the Tatmadaw and the National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) AA, TNLA and MNDAA, despite a ceasefire extended their unilateral ceasefire until the end extension. of February. Nonetheless, fighting in Rakhine, Shan and Kayin States continues. ● The Tatmadaw is accused of using combat drones against the AA in Rakhine State. Both sides are accused of threatening ARAKAN ARMY-TATMADAW civilians. Clashes between the AA and the Tatmadaw ● The AA releases Chin politician Hawi Tin mainly took place in Minbya, Rathedaung, and 17 other detainees. Paletwa, Mrauk-U, and Ann Townships. Conflict ● The Tatmadaw and KNLA fight in Hpapun was also reported in the towns of Buthidaung, Township where, despite the NCA, Kyauktaw, Myebon, and Ponnagyun.cxx ACLED sporadic low-intensity conflict has been reported the AA’s claim that Tatmadaw used simmering for years. aerial warfare in much of the state and suffered ● The Tatmadaw withdraws from the Hinthar many casualties, including the loss of more than Dine checkpoint, its base since fighting with 15 soldiers in a single battle in Minbya Township the NMSP in December 2019. in January 2020.

Figure 1 maps conflict events in Myanmar The AA accused the Tatmadaw of using combat between December 14, 2019 and January 25, drones in skirmishes in Buthidaung, Rathedaung, 2020 as reported by the Armed Conflict and and Paletwa Townships.cxxi On January 21, the Location Event Data (ACLED) project. Karen National Union (KNU) also accused the Tatmadaw of using drones since 2018 to conduct aerial reconnaissance over KNU-controlled areas. The KNU claims using drones goes against the NCA.cxxii The Tatmadaw counters that the drones do not possess combat technology and are used only for surveillance on military outposts and troops.

The Government continued to pressure AA- owned businesses in Yangon. A restaurant in Tamwe Township, reportedly co-owned by Aung Myat Kyaw, the AA commander-in-chief’s brother, was raided by the police and Anti- Money Laundering Board officials on January 9.cxxiii Aung Myat Kyaw was one of six Rakhine people deported from Singapore in July 2019 and currently in prison, charged under the Anti- Terrorism Law. In Okkalapa Township, a second Figure 1. Conflict Hot Spot Map restaurant with alleged links to the AA was also (December 14, 2019 – January 25, 2020) KIMETRICA LLC, DATA SOURCE: ACLED temporarily shut down.

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 14 In January, civilians continued to be threatened controlled by the Tatmadaw and that the by the Tatmadaw and the AA, mostly occurring Tatmadaw committed the crime while in Minbya and Myebon Townships in Rakhine pretending to be AA soldiers to sow divisions State and Paletwa Township in Chin State. Village between the Chin and Rakhine people ahead of administrators from Minbya Township continue Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to to demand justice for the killings of two village Myanmar.cxxvii The Tatmadaw dismissed the administrators and a civilian woman by the allegations as “baseless.”cxxviii Tatmadaw in Sittaya in December 2019. Sixty- eight village chiefs from Minbya sent a written The increase in violent incidents led the Paletwa appeal to State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, and Township General Administration Department threatened to resign if the deaths were not to extend the nightly curfew, imposed in investigated.cxxiv November 2019, for an additional two In Paletwa Township, the AA and the Tatmadaw months.cxxix Given the increase in abductions by blamed each other for the deaths of three the AA in Rakhine State in early January, the civilians. On January 10, the bodies of a school Myanmar Border Affairs Minister announced that principal and two other civilians who went government employees will now need official missing three days earlier were found in the permission to travel in the state and will have to jungle, bound and stabbed.cxxv The Khumi Affairs report to Rakhine State security forces when Coordination Council, a local CSO, accused the there.cxxx AA of abducting and killing them.cxxvi The AA denied the accusation, claiming that the area is

Table 1. Civilians displaced, injured, and killed by AA-Tatmadaw, January 2020cxxxi Location Number of Civilians Details of Civilians Affected Affected District Township

Kyaukpyu Ann 1 injured January 4: Tatmadaw soldiers tortured a woman, including pouring hot water on her and cutting her legs with a knife. The military was searching for her husband suspected of links to the AA.

Maungdaw Buthidaung 6 killed, 16 January 7: Four Rohingya children were killed and six injured by an injured explosion while looking for wood. It is unclear whether the explosion was caused by a landmine or artillery. January 20: A Muslim girl was injured by a bullet. Her family claims it was fired by the Tatmadaw battalion near the village. January 25: Two Rohingya women were killed and seven others injured by an artillery shell that landed in a house in Kin Taung village.

Mindat Paletwa 3 killed, at January 7: A woman was injured by a landmine explosion in Nga Shar least 2 village. injured January 10: The AA abducted and interrogated 130 villagers from Kyee Lay to work as guides, and admitted that some of the villagers were beaten during the interrogation.

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 15 January 10: A primary school headmaster and two other men were found bound and stabbed to death in the jungle between An Kho Wa and Sein Sin villages. January 17: A woman was injured after stepping on a landmine while working on her land.

Mrauk-U Kyauktaw 4 injured January 5: A woman was injured after shells and bullets were fired into a village following a landmine explosion. Villagers claimed they were fired by a Tatmadaw contingent that had arrived in the village a day earlier. January 11: Two children and a woman were injured by an explosion in Yoke Thar village. The Tatmadaw had stayed in the village before the explosion. January 20: Stray bullets from fighting between the Tatmadaw and the AA on the Kaladan river killed a villager.

Minbya 8 injured, 5 Between January 15 - 18: The bodies of five civilians were found close killed to May Lun village, the site of fierce clashes between the AA and the Tatmadaw, on January 11. January 19: eight people, including five children, were injured by a landmine explosion while gathering firewood in a forest.

Mrauk-U 7 injured, 1 January 9: Four people, including a one-year-old child, were injured by killed an artillery shell fired by the Tatmadaw in Oke Hpoke Kan village. January 10: A landmine exploded as a Tatmadaw column was entering Oke Hpoke Kan village. In response, the soldiers fired gunshots, injuring three civilians, including a child. January 19: The Tatmadaw killed one of two men riding on a motorbike as they passed a Tatmadaw battalion base. The other man was arrested.

Myebon 1 killed January 11: A 10-month-old baby was killed by bullets when the Tatmadaw fired on a family returning to their village by boat.

Sittwe Ponnagyun 2 injured January 19: Two villagers were injured by two separate landmines while looking for firewood near Buddhaw village.

Rathedaung Unknown January 9: Most Nyaung Pin Hla villagers fled when the AA and number Tatmadaw began fighting in the village. Thirty-three had been trapped displaced and rescued on January 15.

AA RELEASES CAPTIVES, INCLUDING HAWI Tatmadaw to arrest ethnic Rakhines in TING Paletwa.cxxxiii This month, the AA also reportedly On January 21, the AA released Paletwa released a schoolteacher, 16 Ministry of Township Member of Parliament Hawi Tin, Transport staff, two employees of Tatmadaw- despite indicating earlier in the month that no owned telecom company Mytel, and two of 13 release was planned.cxxxii Hawi Tin was detained Tatmadaw soldiers currently being detained due on November 3 on suspicion of working with the to ill health.cxxxiv

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 16 The AA claims it let Hawi Tin go to “build mutual Tatmadaw detained two RCSS soldiers attending trust and understanding” and “strengthen a public meeting in Nansang Township on January brotherly relationships and friendships” between 8.cxxxvi Rakhine people and other ethnic groups in Rakhine State.cxxxv The NLD and Chin Human Conflict between the Tatmadaw and the Rights Organization praised his release. MNDAA continues to simmer. On January 17, in Muse Township, the Tatmadaw and the MNDAA SHAN STATE fought in what was allegedly a surprise attack by the Tatmadaw.cxxxvii A military observer, speaking TA’ANG NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY to the Kachin News Group, noted that the attack The ceasefire called by the AA, the TNLA, and occurred despite a Government announcement the MNDAA appears to be largely holding in that conflict must cease during President Xi TNLA areas of Shan State, with little reported Jinping’s visit.cxxxviii fighting between the TNLA and the Tatmadaw. The two sides fought once each in Kutkai, The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) also Kyaukme, and Namhsan, on January 8, 20, and fought with the Tatmadaw twice in January. On 21, respectively, and twice in Namhkan, on January 1, the KIA and the Tatmadaw fought in January 2 and 20. Kutkai, and on January 8, the two forces exchanged gunfire after the Tatmadaw No active fighting between the RCSS and the reportedly fired artillery shells at a KIA training Tatmadaw was reported in January. But the camp in Hseni.cxxxix

Table 2. Civilians displaced, injured, and killed by conflict in Shan State, January 2020 Location Number of Civilians Details of Civilians Affected District Township Affected

Kyaukme Kyaukme 5 injured January 6: Two men stepped on a landmine and one was seriously injured near Mong Ngawt sub-Township. January 21: A woman was injured after stepping on a landmine in Taung Po Lo village. January 23: Three villagers on a motorbike drove over a landmine near Ahyr Pyaung village and were injured.

Namhsan 1 killed, 2 January 9: A man was killed in a landmine explosion. injured January 19: A monk was injured, and some houses, schools, and a monastery were damaged when the Tatmadaw opened fire on Ho Lat village. January 20: A villager was injured after stepping on a landmine in Pang Nin Village.

Muse Kutkai 1 killed January 9: A TNLA soldier shot and killed a man riding a motorbike in Maw Han Village, after he did not follow the soldier’s orders to stop.

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 17 KAYIN STATE sophisticated long-term strategy to increase control over northern Kayin. The Tatmadaw KAREN NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY strategy relies on less visible pressure such as: Between January 2 and January 5, the Karen displacing civilians, corrupting KNU leaders, and National Liberation Army (KNLA) and the “currying favour” with the Thai authorities, Tatmadaw fought near War Tho Kho Village, whom the Karen rely on for sanctuary. Hpapun Township.cxl Two villagers were injured According to the advisor, by employing largely and one Tatmadaw soldier was allegedly killed on “off camera… steady, grinding” tactics, the the first day of fighting. Each side claims the other Tatmadaw’s expansion over many years has been instigated the fighting. According to an official going unnoticed by the international community. from the state-level Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee, the two forces reached a settlement MON NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY following negotiations.cxli On January 13, the Tatmadaw withdrew from the Hinthar Dine checkpoint, Kyainseikgyi Township, Although the KNLA is an NCA signatory, the after meeting with the New Mon State Party two forces have clashed sporadically over the last (NMSP).cxliii The military had established a camp few years. According to The Armed Conflict there last month following clashes with the Mon Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), the last National Liberation Army near Japan Yae Twin notable battle occurred in January 2019, also in village. One Tatmadaw soldier was killed. There Hpapun.cxlii A former KNLA commander said have been sporadic flare-ups over recent that Hpapun is of interest to the Tatmadaw months, frequently between the NMSP’s armed because of the hydro-power sites on the Salween force, the Mon National Liberation Army, and River and the presence of gold and other the KNLA. minerals. Figure 2 shows all the conflict actors and the A foreign advisor on pro-democracy and human number of violent interactions from December rights movements in Myanmar cautioned that the 14, 2019 to January 25, 2020, as reported by Tatmadaw’s restraint in fighting reflects a more ACLED.

Figure 2. Conflict Actors (December 14, 2019 – January 25, 2020) KIMETRICA LLC, DATA SOURCE: ACLED

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 18 ENDNOTES i Press Release, ICOE, https://www.icoe-myanmar.org/icoe-pr-final- report?fbclid=IwAR1dcmk52UZOk7CRMLjuIuANQ09Ro4bUoUadEurtwZr4vouGXlOFnoRjSy4 ii RFA’s Myanmar Service, translated by Kyaw Kyaw Aung, written in English by Richard Finney, “‘No Genocidal Intent’ Found in Rohingya Crackdown, Myanmar Commission Says,” Radio Free Asia, January 20,2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/genocide-01202020165044.html iii ICOE, Executive Summary, https://www.facebook.com/myanmarpresidentoffice.gov.mm/photos/pcb.2632138836833836/2632137840167269/?t ype=3&theater iv Sit Htet Aung, “Human rights groups reserve judgment on Rakhine panel report,” Myanmar Times, January 21, 2020, https://www.mmtimes.com/news/human-rights-groups-reserve-judgment-rakhine-panel-report.html v Thant Zin Oo and Roseanne Gerin, Translated by Ye Kaung Myint Maung, “Myanmar President Says Military Courts Must Investigate, Prosecute Soldiers Responsible For Rights Violations Against Rohingya,” Radio Free Asia, January 21, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/myanmar-president-says-military-courts-must- investigate-01212020164338.html vi Kyaw Lwin Oo and Roseanne Gerin, Translated by Khet Mar, “Myanmar’s Army to Take Legal Action Against Soldiers Accused of Rights Violations in Rakhine,” Radio Free Asia, January 22, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/myanmars-army-to-take-legal-action-01222020163238.html vii David Scott Mathieson, “Myanmar’s Get Out of Jail Free Card,” Asia Times (Yangon, Myanmar), January 31, 2020, https://www.asiatimes.com/2020/01/article/myanmars-get-out-of-jail-free-card/ viii Republic of the Union of Myanmar Office of the President Press Release, January 21, 2020, https://www.globalnewlightofmyanmar.com/republic-of-the-union-of-myanmar-office-of-the-president-press- release/ ix Kyaw Phyo Tha, “Myanmar President Sends Report on Massacres of Rohingya by Security Forces to Military Chief for More Prosecutions,” Irrawaddy, January 21, 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-president- sends-report-massacres-rohingya-security-forces-military-chief-prosecutions.html; Thant Zin Oo and Roseanne Gerin, Translated by Ye Kaung Myint Maung, “Myanmar President Says Military Courts Must Investigate, Prosecute Soldiers Responsible For Rights Violations Against Rohingya,” Radio Free Asia, January 21, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/myanmar-president-says-military-courts-must-investigate- 01212020164338.html; Nyein Nyein, “Myanmar Attorney General Vows to Prosecute Civilian Perpetrators of Crimes Against Rohingya in Rakhine State,” Irrawaddy, January 22, 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-attorney-general-vows-prosecute-civilian-perpetrators-crimes- rohingya-rakhine-state.html x Nyein Nyein, “Myanmar Military Says It Needs to Study ICOE Report Before Investigating Rakhine Crimes,” Irrawaddy, January 23, 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-military-says-needs-study-icoe- report-investigating-rakhine-crimes.html; Nyein Nyein, “Myanmar Attorney General Vows to Prosecute Civilian Perpetrators of Crimes Against Rohingya in Rakhine State,” Irrawaddy, January 22, 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-attorney-general-vows-prosecute-civilian-perpetrators-crimes- rohingya-rakhine-state.html xi Kyaw Lwin Oo and Roseanne Gerin, Translated by Khet Mar, “Myanmar’s Army to Take Legal Action Against Soldiers Accused of Rights Violations in Rakhine,” Radio Free Asia, January 22, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/myanmars-army-to-take-legal-action-01222020163238.html xii Kyaw Lwin Oo and Roseanne Gerin, Translated by Khet Mar, “Myanmar’s Army to Take Legal Action Against Soldiers Accused of Rights Violations in Rakhine,” Radio Free Asia, January 22, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/myanmars-army-to-take-legal-action-01222020163238.html xiii RFA’s Myanmar Service et al, “UN Top Court Issues Ruling on Provisional Measures to Protect Myanmar’s Rohingya,” Radio Free Asia, January 23, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/un-top-court-issues-ruling- 01232020112353.html; “The International Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, “Court of Justice today ordered Myanmar to take immediate action to prevent genocide,” ReliefWeb, January 23, 2020, https://reliefweb.int/report/myanmar/international-court-justice-today-ordered-myanmar-take-immediate-action- prevent

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 19 xiv RFA’s Myanmar Service et al, “UN Top Court Issues Ruling on Provisional Measures to Protect Myanmar’s Rohingya,” Radio Free Asia, January 23, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/un-top-court-issues-ruling- 01232020112353.html xvAndrew Nachemson and Lun Min Mang, “ICJ rules to impose provisional measures in Rohingya genocide trial,” Frontier Myanmar, January 23, 2020, https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/icj-rules-to-impose-provisional-measures-in- rohingya-genocide-trial xvi Kyaw Lwin Oo and Eugene Whong, Translated by Ye Kaung Myint Maung, “Myanmar’s Ruling Party Says No Special Measures Required After ICJ Ruling,” Radio Free Asia, January 24, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/myanmar-icj-nld-reaction-01242020161650.html; BBC, “Myanmar Rohingya: Government rejects ICJ ruling,” BBC News, January 23, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia- 51229796 xvii Aung San Suu Kyi, “Give Myanmar Time to Deliver Justice on War Crimes,” Financial Times (Yangon, Myanmar), January 23, 2020. https://www.ft.com/content/dcc9bee6-3d03-11ea-b84f-a62c46f39bc2; Andrew Nachemson and Lun Min Mang, “ICJ rules to impose provisional measures in Rohingya genocide trial,” Frontier Myanmar, January 23, 2020, https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/icj-rules-to-impose-provisional-measures-in-rohingya-genocide-trial xviii Ibid xix Muktadir Rashid, “UN Special Rapporteur for Myanmar Urges China, Russia to Join Calls for Accountability on Rohingya,” The Irrawaddy, January 23, 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/un-special-rapporteur-for- myanmar-urges-china-russia-to-join-calls-for-accountability-on-rohingya.html; Mizzima, “Chinese President Xi seen as standing with Myanmar over ICJ case,” Mizzima, January 18, 2020, http://mizzima.com/article/chinese-president- xi-seen-standing-myanmar-over-icj-case xx RFA’s Myanmar Service et al, “UN Top Court Issues Ruling on Provisional Measures to Protect Myanmar’s Rohingya,” Radio Free Asia, January 23, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/un-top-court-issues-ruling- 01232020112353.html xxi The Boycott List: Burmese military companies: products and brands, (London, UK: Burma Campaign UK, January 14, 2020). https://burmacampaign.org.uk/take-action/the-boycott-list/ xxii Zaw Moe Oo, “Myanmar sends 172 Bengalis caught in its sea territory to Sittwe,” Eleven Myanmar, January 9, 2020, https://elevenmyanmar.com/news/myanmar-sends-172-bengalis-caught-in-its-sea-territory-to-sittwe xxiii Development Media Group, “Resettlement begins for Muslims detained off Tanintharyi coast,” BNI Online, January 20, 2020, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/resettlement-begins-muslims-detained-tanintharyi- coast xxiv AFP, “Myanmar sends nearly 200 Rohingya captured at sea to Rakhine camps,” Frontier Myanmar, January 14, 2020, https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/myanmar-sends-nearly-200-rohingya-captured-at-sea-to-rakhine-camps xxv Development Media Group, “Resettlement begins for Muslims detained off Tanintharyi coast,” BNI Online, January 20, 2020, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/resettlement-begins-muslims-detained-tanintharyi-coast; Nay Myo Htun and Eugene Whong, “Myanmar Continues to Investigate Detained Rohingya Boat People,” Radio Free Asia, January 16, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/myanmar-boat-people-17- resettled-01162020172324.html xxvi Fortify Rights, “Myanmar: New Evidence of Denial of Rohingya Citizenship,” Fortify Rights, January 16, 2020, https://www.fortifyrights.org/mya-inv-2020-01-16/ xxvii Riyaz Khaliq, “Rights group: Myanmar continues to deny Rohingya rights,” Andalou Agency, January 16, 2020, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/rights-group-myanmar-continues-to-deny-rohingya-rights/1704862 xxviii Fortify Rights, “Myanmar: New Evidence of Denial of Rohingya Citizenship,” Fortify Rights, January 16, 2020, https://www.fortifyrights.org/mya-inv-2020-01-16/ xxix Ibid xxx Xinua, “Myanmar records over 200 human trafficking in 2019,” Xinhua, January 3, 2020, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/03/c_138675920.htm xxxi Toe Wai Aung, “China top destination for Myanmar trafficking victims,” Myanmar Times, January 9, 2020, https://www.mmtimes.com/news/china-top-destination-myanmar-trafficking-victims.html xxxii Zaw Zaw Htwe, “Most Myanmar Trafficking Cases Involve Forced Marriage in China: Police,” Irrawaddy, January 3, 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-trafficking-cases-involve-forced-marriage-china- police.html; Lawi Weng, “Myanmar Girls Trafficked to China from Shan, Militia Detains Suspects,” Irrawaddy, January 24, 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-girls-trafficked-china-shan-militia-detains-suspects.html

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 20 xxxiii Zaw Zaw Htwe, “Most Myanmar Trafficking Cases Involve Forced Marriage in China: Police,” Irrawaddy, January 3, 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-trafficking-cases-involve-forced-marriage-china- police.html; Sai Wansai, “BRIDE TRAFFICKING - Sourcing vulnerable women from the Kachin and Shan states,” BNI Online, January 23, 2020, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/bride-trafficking-sourcing-vulnerable-women-kachin- and-shan-states xxxiv Development Media Group, “IDPs in Ann town need government help: lawmaker,” BNI Online, January 20, 2020, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/idps-ann-town-need-government-help-lawmaker xxxv Narinjara, “Scarcity of water puts displaced people’s camp in trouble,” BNI Online, January 13, 2020, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/scarcity-water-puts-displaced-peoples-camp-trouble xxxvi Ibid xxxvii Narinjara, “Children in Arakan IDP camps face acute malnutrition,” BNI Online, January 24, 2020, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/children-arakan-idp-camps-face-acute-malnutrition xxxviii Development Media Group, “IDPs in Ann town need government help: lawmaker,” BNI Online, January 20, 2020, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/idps-ann-town-need-government-help-lawmaker xxxix Nan Lwin, “Myanmar, China to Sign Agreements on SEZ, Border Economic Cooperation During President Xi’s Visit”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) January 10 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar- china-sign-agreements-sez-border-economic-cooperation-president-xis-visit.html xl AFP, “China and Myanmar ink dozens of infrastructure and trade deals”, Frontier Myanmar (Yangon, Myanmar) January 18 2020. https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/china-and-myanmar-ink-dozens-of-infrastructure-and-trade-deals xli Thu Thu Aung and Poppy McPherson, “Myanmar, China ink deals to accelerate Belt and Road as Xi courts an isolated Suu Kyi” Reuters, January 18 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-china/myanmar-china-ink- deals-to-accelerate-belt-and-road-as-xi-courts-an-isolated-suu-kyi-idUSKBN1ZH054 xlii Kang Wan Chern, “Myanmar, China sign agreements on Kyaukphyu, no mention of Myitsone, peace talks”, Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) January 18 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-china-sign- agreements-kyaukphyu-no-mention-myitsone-peace-talks.html;Myanmar Ministry of Information, Press Release on the State Visit of H.E. Mr. Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China to The Republic of the Union of Myanmar, January 19, 2020. Accessed online: https://www.moi.gov.mm/moi:eng/?q=announcement/19/01/2020/id- 20537 xliii Thompson Chau, “China, Myanmar tighten their Belt and Road ties” Asia Times, January 21 2020. https://www.asiatimes.com/2020/01/article/china-myanmar-tighten-their-belt-and-road-ties/ xliv Nan Lwin, “Gov’t Working on Final Decision for Myitsone Dam, Minister Says”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) January 29 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/govt-working-final-decision-myitsone-dam- minister-says.html xlv Nan Lwin, “Myanmar CSOs Urge Xi Jinping to Terminate Myitsone Dam Project”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) January 16 2020 https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-csos-urge-xi-jinping-to-terminate-myitsone-dam-project.html xlviNan Lwin, “Myanmar CSOs Urge Xi Jinping to Terminate Myitsone Dam Project”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) January 16 2020 https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-csos-urge-xi-jinping-to-terminate-myitsone-dam-project.html xlvii Mizzima, “Uncertainty hangs over Myitsone dam project as Chinese leader visits” Mizzima News (Yangon, Myanmar) January 18 2020. http://mizzima.com/article/uncertainty-hangs-over-myitsone-dam-project-chinese- leader-xi-visits xlviii Nan Lwin, “Suu Kyi Economic Adviser: National Interest Must Come First When Deciding Large Chinese Investments in Myanmar” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) January 20 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/in- person/suu-kyi-economic-adviser-national-interest-must-come-first-when-deciding-large-chinese-investments-in- myanmar.html xlixMonish Tourangbam and Pawan Amin, “China’s Dynamic Grip on Myanmar” The Diplomat May 7 2019. https://thediplomat.com/2019/05/chinas-dynamic-grip-on-myanmar/ l Nyein Nyein, “Ethnic Armed Groups Based on Myanmar’s Border With China Welcome Xi Jinping” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) January 16 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/ethnic-armed-groups-based- myanmars-border-china-welcome-xi-jinping.html li Ibid

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 21 lii Soe Thu Aung, “Chinese President denies supplying arms to ethnic groups” Mizzima News (Yangon, Myanmar) January 19 2020. http://mizzima.com/article/chinese-president-denies-supplying-arms-ethnic-armed-groups liii Htet Naing Zaw, “Chinese President’s Claim That Beijing Not Arming EAOs Met With Skepticism in Myanmar” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) January 20 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/chinese-presidents- claim-beijing-not-arming-eaos-met-skepticism-myanmar.html liv Nan Lwin, “Popular Shan Party Warns Chinese Projects Without Local Consent Risk More Conflicts” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) January 17 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/popular-shan-party-warns- chinese-projects-without-local-consent-risk-conflicts.html lv Andrew Nachemson and Lun Min Mang, “Minor league meetings” Frontier Daily Briefing (email newsletter) January 14 2020 lvi Nan Lwin, “Japan to Provide Over $1 Billion in Loans to Myanmar for Development Projects” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) January 22 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/japan-provide-1-billion-loans- myanmar-development-projects.html lvii JICA, “Press Releases: Signing of Japanese ODA Loan Agreements with Myanmar: Comprehensive Support for Economic and Social Development” JICA, January 21 2020 https://www.jica.go.jp/english/news/press/2019/20200121_10_en.html lviii JICA, “Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan) Regional Infrastructure Improvement Project” JICA, January 21 2020 https://www.jica.go.jp/english/our_work/evaluation/oda_loan/economic_cooperation/c8h0vm000001rdjt- att/myanmar_200121_04.pdf lix Nayrein Kyaw, “Myanmar Ex-President’s Call to Defend Army From Human Rights ‘Neocolonialism’ Draws Scorn”, Radio Free Asia, January 9 2020. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/myanmar-ex-presidents-call-01092020170622.html lx San Yamin Aung, “Myanmar’s Ex-President Tells Voters to Protect Race, Religion, Military in 2020 Election”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) January 7 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-ex-president- tells-voters-protect-race-religion-military-2020-election.html lxi Thet Zin Soe, “Opposition leader says ‘internationalising’ Rakhine crisis wrong”, Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) January 14 2020 https://www.mmtimes.com/news/opposition-leader-says-internationalising-rakhine- crisis-wrong.html lxii Andrew Nachemson and Lun Min Mang, “Nationalism Fervour”, Frontier Daily Briefing (email newsletter) January 21 lxiii Ibid lxiv Myat Thura and Sit Htet Aung, “Myanmar government, military and ethnic leaders agree to hasten talks”, Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) January 8 2020 https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-government- military-and-ethnic-leaders-agree-hasten-talks.html lxv Nyein Nyein, “At Myanmar Peace Talks, State Counselor Urges All Parties to Put Country First” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) January 8 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-peace-talks-state-counselor- urges-parties-put-country-first.html lxvi Ibid lxvii Sai Wansai, “JICM: Eight-point agenda agreement a positive restart of stalled peace process?” Burma News International (Yangon, Myanmar) January 11 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/jicm-eight-point-agenda- agreement-positive-restart-stalled-peace-process lxviii Nyein Nyein, “At Myanmar Peace Talks, State Counselor Urges All Parties to Put Country First” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) January 8 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-peace-talks-state-counselor- urges-parties-put-country-first.html lxix EMG, “Meeting between govt and northern allies postponed to Feb” Eleven Media Group (Yangon, Myanmar) January 16 2020. https://elevenmyanmar.com/news/meeting-between-govt-and-northern-allies-postponed-to-feb lxx Frontier Myanmar Media Monitoring, “Northern Alliance plays the China card” Frontier Myanmar, (email newsletter) January 21 2019. Note: The Tatmadaw arrests people suspected of talking to EAOs under the Unlawful Associations Act to try and prevent people cooperating with armed groups

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 22 lxxi Development Media Group, “Senior General says some armed groups’ leaders lack enthusiasm for peace” Burma News International, January 7 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/senior-general-says-some-armed-groups- leaders-lack-enthusiasm-peace lxxii Aung Myat Thu, “Fourth 21st Century Panglong Peace Conference could be mid-year - PPST” Mizzima News (Yangon, Myanmar) January 8 2020. http://mizzima.com/article/fourth-21st-century-panglong-peace-conference- could-be-mid-year-ppst lxxiii Swe Lei Mon, “Ethnic armed group leader to meet State Counsellor, Senior General” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) January 5 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/ethnic-armed-group-leader-meet-state-counsellor-senior-general.html lxxiv Andrew Nachemson and Lun Min Mang, “China’s war tour” Frontier Daily Briefing (email newsletter) January 13 2020 lxxv Sai Wansai, “JICM: Eight-point agenda agreement a positive restart of stalled peace process?” Burma News International (Yangon, Myanmar) January 11 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/jicm-eight-point-agenda- agreement-positive-restart-stalled-peace-process lxxvi Lawi Weng, “Mon Ethnic Party: Myanmar Gov’t, Military Lack Political Will for Federalism, Equality” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) January 8 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/mon-ethnic-party-myanmar- govt-military-lack-political-will-for-federalism-equality.html lxxvii Network Media Group, “China Urges KIO to Engage Further with Burmese Govt” Burma News International (Yangon, Myanmar) January 14 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/china-urges-kio-engage-further-burmese- govt lxxviii Nyein Nyein, “Rebel Groups Told to Unite to Save Myanmar’s Peace Process” The Irrawaddy (Yangon Myanmar) January 17 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/rebel-groups-told-unite-save-myanmars-peace- process.html lxxix Nyein Nyein, “Myanmar's National Dialogue Must Be for All NCA Signatories Ahead of Peace Summit, EAOs Say”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) January 20 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars- national-dialogue-must-nca-signatories-ahead-peace-summit-eaos-say.html lxxx Network Media Group, “NCA-Signatory EAOs to Invite Non-Signatory EAOs to Peace Process Meeting”, Burma News International (Yangon, Myanmar) January 21 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/nca-signatory-eaos- invite-non-signatory-eaos-peace-process-meeting lxxxi San Yamin Aung, “Charter Amendment Committee Submits Two Bills to Myanmar Parliament Calling For Reduced Role for Military”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) January 27 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/charter-amendment-committee-submits-two-bills-to-myanmar- parliament-calling-for-reduced-role-for-military.html lxxxii Lun Min Mang, “Deadlock likely on the way to charter reform” Frontier Myanmar (Yangon, Myanmar) January 24 2020. https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/deadlock-likely-on-the-way-to-charter-reform lxxxiii Myat Thura, “Parliament forms committee to study charter amendment bills”, Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) January 28 2020 https://www.mmtimes.com/news/parliament-forms-committee-study-charter- amendment-bills.html lxxxiv Ibid lxxxv Private correspondence with MAA researchers lxxxvi The first amendment requires backing of 75 percent of MPs and half of all voters in a national referendum to pass. The second bill requires only the approval of 75 percent of MPs in parliament. lxxxvii Kyaw Phyo Tha, “Auditor-General Raises Concerns That Yangon MPs Can’t Properly Debate Govt Spending Without Her Full Report” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) January 1213 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/auditor-general-raises-concerns-that-yangon-mps-cant-properly-debate- govt-spending-without-her-full-report.html lxxxviii Andrew Nachemson and Lun Min Mang, “Transparency watchdog takes PMT to task” Frontier Daily Briefing (email newsletter) January 7 2020 lxxxix Phyo Thiha Cho, “Yangon govt making sweetheart deals, says auditor general”, Myanmar Now (Yangon, Myanmar) January 14 2020. https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/yangon-govt-making-sweetheart-deals-says-auditor- general

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 23 xc Kyaw Phyo Tha, “Auditor's Report Shows Financial Problems of Yangon Government” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) January 9 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/auditors-report-shows-financial-problems- yangon-government.html xci San Yamn Aung, “Lawmakers Blast Yangon Govt for Misusing Public Funds”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) January 22 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/lawmakers-blast-yangon-govt-misusing-public-funds.html xcii Kyaw Lin Htoon, “Secretariat for sale?” Frontier Myanmar (Yangon, Myanmar) March 26 2019. https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/secretariat-for-sale xciii Zue Zue, “Ex-Tanintharyi Region Chief Minister to Face Corruption Charges”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) January 21 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/ex-tanintharyi-region-chief-minister-face-corruption- charges.html xciv The World Bank, 2020, “Myanmar Economic Monitor: Resilience Amidst Risk, December 2019”, Washington D.C.: The World Bank. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/501141578669463216/pdf/Myanmar-Economic- Monitor-Resilience-Amidst-Risk.pdf xcv The World Bank, 2020, “Myanmar Economic Monitor: Resilience Amidst Risk, December 2019”, Washington D.C.: The World Bank. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/501141578669463216/pdf/Myanmar-Economic- Monitor-Resilience-Amidst-Risk.pdf xcvi Ibid. xcvii Ibid. xcviii Zeyar Hein, “Authorities crack down on zero dollar tourists” The Myanmar Times, December 18, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/authorities-crack-down-zero-dollar-tourists.html xcix Ibid. c Ibid. ci Ibid. cii Thiha Ko Ko, “Government plans to merge state-run banks to facilitate more lending”, The Myanmar Times, January 23, 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/government-plans-merge-state-run-banks-facilitate-more-lending.html ciii Ibid. civ Ibid. cv Sean Turnell, Twitter,, January 23, 2020. https://twitter.com/sean_turnell/status/1220518335428747265 cvi Interview with MAA researchers cvii Thiha Ko Ko, “New law in the works to help set up Myanmar credit market”, The Myanmar Times, January 07, 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/new-law-works-help-set-myanmar-credit-market.html cviii Ibid. cix Thomas Kean and Kyaw Lin Htoon, “KBZ takes Yangon port operator to court over massive debts”, Frontier, January 22, 2020. https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/kbz-takes-yangon-port-operator-to-court-over-massive-debts cx Ibid. cxi Ibid. cxii Thiha Ko Ko, “Legislation seeks to control country’s imports”, The Myanmar Times, January 01, 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/legislation-seeks-control-countrys-imports.html cxiii Ibid. cxiv Ibid. cxv The World Bank, “Enabling the Business of Agriculture”, The World Bank, 2019, November 18 2019. cxvi Supplying seeds, registering fertilisers, registering machinery, sustaining livestock, protecting plant health, trading food, accessing finance and securing water. cxvii World Bank. “Myanmar - Analysis of farm production economics” World Bank Group, 2016 cxviii FAO, “Myanmar overview” FAO, Updated 2019. http://www.fao.org/countryprofiles/index/en/?iso3=MMR cxix Interview with MAA researchers cxx ACLED Data cxxi Thiha Lwin, “Myanmar Military Denes Using Drones to Attack Arakan Army Troops,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), January 24, 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-military-denies-using-drones-attack- arakan-army-troops.html

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 24 cxxii Thiha Lwin, January 24, 2020; Nant Khaing, “Tatmadaw Says Use of Drones is not for Reconnaissance but for Area Security,” Mizzima (Yangon, Myanmar), January 25, 2020. http://mizzima.com/article/tatmadaw-says-use- drones-not-reconnaissance-area-security cxxiii Andrew Nachemson and Lun Min Mang, “Xi Jinping visit confirmed, details emerge” Frontier Daily Briefing (email newsletter), January 10, 2020 cxxiv RFA, “Rakhine Village Chiefs Tell Myanmar Leader they’ll Quit Unless Colleague’s Death is Investigated,” Radio Free Asia, January 13, 2020. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/rakhine-village-chiefs-tell-myanmar-leader- 01132020170329.html; Narinjara, “68 Village Administartors Urge State Counsellor to Investigate Murder of Colleagues,” BNI News, January 15, 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/68-village-administrators-urge-state- counsellor-investigate-murder-colleagues cxxv Nan Lwin Hnin Pwint, “Myanmar Military, AA Swap Blame for Civilian Deaths in Chin State,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), January 14, 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-military-aa-swap-blame-civilian- deaths-chin-state.html; Khonumthung News, “School Principal, Two Villagers Found Dead in Paletwa,” BNI News, January 14, 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/school-principal-two-villagers-found-dead-paletwa cxxvi Nan Lwin Hnin Pwint, January 14, 2020 cxxvii Nan Lwin Hnin Pwint, January 14, 2020; Development Media Group, “Three in Paletwa Found Dead After Abduction by Unidentified Armed Group,” BNI News, January 14, 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/three- paletwa-found-dead-after-abduction-unidentified-armed-group; cxxviii Nan Lwin Hnin Pwint, January 14, 2020 cxxix Sit Htet Aung, “Authorities to Extend Curfew in Paletwa Amid Security Worries,” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar), January 9, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/authorities-extend-curfew-paletwa-amid-security- worries.html; Thazin Hlaing, “Civil Servants Refusing to Work in Chin State’s Paletwa Amid Fighting Between Military, AA,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), January 17, 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/civil-servants- refusing-work-chin-states-paletwa-amid-fighting-military-aa.html cxxx Mizzima, “Government Officials Need Permission to Travel in Rakhine due to Conflict,” Mizzima (Yangon, Myanmar), January 5, 2020. http://mizzima.com/article/government-officials-need-permission-travel-rakhine-due- conflict cxxxi ACLED Data cxxxii Zin Lin Htet, “Detained NLD Lawmaker From Myanmar’s Chin State Won’t be Released Soon: Arakan Army,” Irrwawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), January 10, 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/detained-nld-lawmaker- myanmars-chin-state-wont-released-soon-arakan-army.html; RFA, “Arakan Army Releases Detained Chin Lawmaker Amid Hostilities in Myanmar’s Rakhine,” Radio Free Asia, January 21, 2020. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/arakan-army-releases-detained-chin-lawmaker-01212020170658.html cxxxiii RFA, January 21, 2020 cxxxiv Khin Myat Myat Wai, “Arakan Army Releases Two Ailing Hostages,” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar), January 29, 2020. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/arakan-army-releases-two-ailing-hostages.html; Min Aung Khine, “AA Releases Executive of Myanmar Military-Backed Mytel, Driver,” Irrawaddy (YAngon, Myanmar), January 29, 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/aa-releases-executive-myanmar-military-backed-mytel-driver.html cxxxv RFA, January 21, 2020 cxxxvi Zin Lin Htet, “Myanmar Military Detains 2 Unarmed RCSS Members At Public Event In Shan State,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), January 8, 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-military-detains-2- unarmed-rcss-members-public-event-shan-state.html cxxxvii ACLED Data cxxxviii Kachin News Group, “Burma Army Attacks Kokang Base on Day of Chinese President’s Visit,” BNI News, January 18, 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/burma-army-attacks-kokang-base-day-chinese-presidents-visit cxxxix ACLED Data; Lawi Weng, “Myanmar Army Attacks Kachin Independence Army Base,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), January 10, 2020. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-army-attacks-kachin- independence-army-base.html cxl ACLED Data cxli Andrew Nachemson and Lun Min Mang, “NLD Amendments Heading to Parliament,” Frontier Daily Briefing (email newsletter), January 7, 2020

USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 25 cxlii ACLED Data cxliii Mon News Agency, “Tatmadaw and Karen BGF Withdraw from Hinthar Dine Checkpoint,” BNI News, January 16, 2020. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/tatmadaw-and-karen-bgf-withdraw-hinthar-dine-checkpoint

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