USAID/BURMA MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT January 2020 Contract Number: 72048218C00004 Myanmar Analytical Activity Acknowledgement This report has been written by Kimetrica LLC (www.kimetrica.com) and Mekong Economics (www.mekongeconomics.com) as part of the Myanmar Analytical Activity, and is therefore the exclusive property of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Melissa Earl (Kimetrica) is the author of this report and reachable at [email protected] or at Kimetrica LLC, 80 Garden Center, Suite A-368, Broomfield, CO 80020. The author’s views in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. USAID.GOV DECEMBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 1 JANUARY 2020 AT A GLANCE Myanmar’s ICOE Finds Insufficient Evidence of Genocide. The ICOE admits there is evidence that Tatmadaw soldiers committed individual war crimes, but rules there is no evidence of a systematic effort to destroy the Rohingya people. (Page 1) The ICJ Rules Myanmar Must Take Measures to Protect the Rohingya From Acts of Genocide. International observers laud the ruling as a major step toward fighting genocide globally, but reactions to the ruling in Myanmar are mixed. (Page 2) Fortify Rights Documents Five Cases of Rohingya IDPs Forced to Accept NVCs. The international community and the Rohingya condemned the cards, saying they are a means to keep the Rohingya from obtaining full citizenship rights by identifying them as “Bengali,” not Rohingya. (Page 3) During the Chinese President’s State Visit to Myanmar, the Two Countries Signed Multiple MoUs. The 33 MoUs that President Xi Jinping cosigned are related to infrastructure, trade, media, and urban development. (Page 4) NCA Signatories, the Government, and the Tatmadaw Agree to Hold a Fourth Union Peace Conference by April. The JICM agreed to eight points related to continuing negotiations regarding how the National Ceasefire Agreement is implemented. (Page 7) The Government Announces Reforms to Ease Access to Micro Loans. The Government of Myanmar is merging four state-owned banks to increase the banks’ ability to make small but risky loans, which will benefit micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and farmers. It is also setting up a formal credit market to give MSMEs and farmers increased access to credit. (Page 11) Fighting Continues Between the Tatmadaw and the AA. While the Tatmadaw and AA continue fighting in Rakhine and Chin States, the ceasefire between the Tatmadaw, the TNLA, and the MNDAA in Shan State appears to be holding. (Page 14) The Tatmadaw and the KNLA Clash in Hpapun Township, Kayin State. The two have not fought since January 2019. (Page 18) USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 1 SOCIAL ISSUES Local and international human rights groups are calling for the release of the full report in both ● Myanmar’s ICOE released a report stating Burmese and English for review by the global “insufficient evidence” of genocide against community, to better understand how the ICOE the Rohingya. conducted its investigation and reached its ● The ICJ rules that Myanmar must take conclusion. Some are withholding judgement measures to protect the Rohingya from until the report’s release, while others are clearly genocidal acts. skeptical of the findings. For instance, the ● The Government is in the process of report’s executive summary reads “although resettling Rohingya that were detained off some interviewees mentioned rape cases, these the Tanintharyi coast last December. were all [based on] second-hand information ● A Fortify Rights report finds Rohingya heard from someone else” and therefore “there refugees were recently forced into were no credible statements” proving that accepting NVCs. security forces committed rape.iii ● Myanmar’s Anti-Trafficking Police Force recorded more than 200 human trafficking As Cheery Zahau, a human rights activist, cases in Myanmar in 2019. pointed out, however, it is questionable how those supporting the Rohingya could speak openly about the abuses. She noted “people are THE ROHINGYA afraid to tell the truth… How can you be open and honest with a person who is constantly iv INDEPENDENT COMMISSION OF ENQUIRY denying you?” Others, such as the Burmese REPORT RELEASED Rohingya Organization UK, claim the ICOE On January 20, the Independent Commission of investigation was “deeply flawed” and yet Enquiry (ICOE), which was tasked with another attempt by authorities to hide the v investigating accusations of war crimes in Rohingya genocide. Brad Adams, Asia Director Myanmar, provided its report to President Win for Human Rights Watch, stated that the ICOE, Myint and Aung San Suu Kyi, days before the in its finding on war crimes, is admitting “just International Court of Justice (ICJ) announced its enough to try to placate international opinion” first ruling on the genocide charge for the lawsuit while protecting those senior officers who vi brought by The Gambia.i Though the ICOE ordered the atrocities. In an editorial for Asia determined that the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Times, peace and human rights consultant David Army (ARSA), the Tatmadaw, and civilians all Mathieson addresses each of the six crimes committed war crimes in the Rakhine State acknowledged in the report and argues that by conflict, it noted that “there is insufficient acknowledging some wrongdoing, the report, evidence to argue, much less conclude, that the just like Aung San Suu Kyi’s defense at the ICJ, crimes committed were undertaken with the absolves the Tatmadaw of its war crimes.vii intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group,” and that there The Myanmar leadership’s response to the was, therefore, no genocidal intent.ii The full report was mixed. In a press release on January ICOE report – reportedly 461 pages that 21, Myanmar’s president agreed with the ICOE’s includes 31 annexes of case files and nearly 1,500 recommendation for further criminal interviews–- has yet to be released to the public. investigations and prosecutions.viii He forwarded the report to the Union Attorney General to USAID.GOV JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 1 investigate and prosecute civilian perpetrators, move, a group of 103 domestic civil society and to the military chief to use in investigating organizations (CSOs), including Athan, Shan military personnel.ix The Attorney General’s Women Development Network, and Yangon Office agreed to do so, according to the Watch, released a joint statement that welcomed recommendations in the ICOE report, but the ICJ’s decision: “We understand very clearly military officials said further study is needed that the ICJ case against Myanmar is directed before any sort of tribunals can take place.x toward those responsible for using political power and military might, and not to the people Senior General Min Aung Hlaing announced that of Myanmar.”xv if military personnel should be prosecuted, it will be done in military courts and those accused of Meanwhile, the Government reacted by issuing a human rights abuses will have the right to defend statement insisting that the ICJ still needs to themselves.xi Despite claims that all reach a “factually correct” conclusion on investigations will be announced to the media, whether genocide took place in Rakhine State, Myanmar’s military justice system is opaque and with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs claiming the holds secret tribunals. General Min’s ICJ gave a “distorted picture of the situation.”xvi announcement brought criticism, including from In an op-ed for the Financial Times, Aung San Suu Thar Aye, a Rohingya activist and politician, who Kyi reiterated the Government’s position that believes soldiers should be tried in civil courts to the FFM’s findings of genocide were because it allow for a more transparent process that would relied too much on testimony from refugees, ensure justice for civilian victims.xii stating that international courts can be "attached to specific testimonies of victimisation".xvii ICJ RULES MYANMAR MUST TAKE MEASURES TO PROTECT ROHINGYA FROM GENOCIDE Ethnic CSOs and EAOs in the country remained On January 23, the ICJ ruled that Myanmar pessimistic, believing that the ICJ findings had no should take measures to protect the Rohingya teeth. One organization told MAA researchers, from genocidal acts. In the ruling, the ICJ handed “Many civil society organizations in Burma down four mandates: i) that Myanmar prevent believe the UN ICJ hearings are for politics. Of further killing or serious injury of the Rohingya; course, we hope but we don’t see anything ii) that the Tatmadaw neither harm nor conspire changing that will help ethnics [sic] anywhere… to commit genocide against the Rohingya; iii) that Our guess is that the world will applaud the evidence is preserved; and iv) that Myanmar rulings as a step to democracy. We see this is not report on compliance to these measures until a a good thing because the world will mistakenly final decision is passed.xiii The ICJ decision think our situation is improving but it is not.” emphasized that the court was not making a decision on whether Myanmar committed The Government of Myanmar has yet to issue a genocide, only on whether these provisional statement on whether it plans to comply with the measures were to be imposed. imposed measures. If it refuses, The Gambia, who brought the case to the ICJ, can refer the Some domestic and international human rights case to the UN Security Council. It is expected, organizations lauded