Running head: HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD

How Bald Eagle flies on the New Silk Road

How China’s new strategy (One Belt and One Road) affect the U. S’s policy and economy

Zhange Li

California Maritime Academy

HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 2

Abstract

China’s One Belt One Road strategy is establishing a new cooperation framework; it allows China to participate and even dominate some countries’ economic development.

Central Asia, an area that left behind the world-economically and politically, recently became a hot spot of China’s new outlook. However, Central Asia has not received enough attention from the US. Central Asia plays a significant role in international energy security, human rights issues and terroristic threats. This thesis addresses China’s influences in Central Asia, what’s the role The US plays in this region, and how The US should react to China’s new strategy in Central Asia.

Keywords: One Belt One Road, Central Asia, Maritime disputes

HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 3

Since China’s Reform and Opening up policy (改革开放政策) implemented in the late

1970s, China went through a significant transformation from a government-dominated economy to a market-oriented economy. Thanks to the Deng Xiaoping’s （Former

President/Chairman of China）and his policy, China has surpassed the US and became the largest economy in the world in 2014 (CIA, 2018).

Today, China is facing a different situation from the 1970s. China is the biggest exporter and the largest trading nation in the world and is undergoing one of the fastest economic growth in the world. However, the Chinese government is still facing many economic challenges. Pressures from the domestic economy and the international market are slowing

China down on its way to a renaissance. The United States and China, as the biggest trading partner and rival, their economic and political policy deeply interact with each other. On one hand, China is seeking solutions for its issues by strengthening cooperation with the US; on another, China is facing charges from the US for controlling the exchange rates and the

Chinese government also accuses the US to starting a Trade War (Lu, 2018).

According to one of the Chinese government’s white paper, “Trade and economic relations between China and the United States are of great significance for the two countries as well as for the stability and development of the world economy” (State Council, 2018, 1).

Indeed, China and the United States’ interactions are not only the matters of two countries, but they also have wider influences on a global level.

In 2013, President Xi visited Kazakhstan and Indonesia respectively and proposed to build the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road (B&R). Later that year, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC (Communist Party of China) Central HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 4

Committee announced turning the B&R to a national strategy. For people who are familiar with the modern history of China, the Reform and the Opening up policy that changed

China’s economic development in the recent forty years was also mentioned in Chairman

Deng’s speech first, then became a national strategy in the CPC Central Committee. As almost forty years ago China’s Opening up policy brought them to the global trading community, the US stood as a mentor and partner. Today, the B&R shows the ambitions of

China to become a geopolitical leader. That has brought China to a competitive position with the US.

What are the challenges that US is facing from China’s B&R? How are US policy- makers addressing these challenges? Are there any opportunities for the US to catch? This thesis will discuss how bald eagle (the US) flies (US imposes their influence) on the New

Silk Road.

To address the questions of how China’s B&R affects the US and how the US policymakers should react, this thesis will break the question into multiple parts. The thesis will discuss different countries’ political influences on this policy by their geographical locations. This thesis will use case studies and analysis how B&R will impact, or benefit the

US in this region. Finally, it will come up with one or multiple possible policy recommendations.

One Belt and One Road Initiative

The Belt and Road Initiative (一带一路) is the name for the “Silk Road Economic Belt” on the land and the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” on the Ocean. China acclaim that is the B&R has become the “most popular global product” and the “most promising HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 5

international cooperation platform” (Zhao & An, 2018,1). The Chinese government will always follow the regulations of the United Nations charters, keeps opening for cooperation, accommodates harmony together with partners to keeps market operation, to achieve a Win-

Win situation.

China aims to build a new type of international system with cooperation and a “win-win” system as the core, building a partnership that is not confrontational and non-aligned. States should respect each other’s sovereignty, dignity, territorial integrity, respect each other’s development paths and social systems, and respect each other’s core interests and major concerns (Xi, 2018).

(SciVal & Scopus, 2017)

The B&R includes “Five Main Depictions”; the Silk Road Economic Belt includes three: first, from northwest China, northeast Asia, Russia, Europe, and the Baltic Sea; the second is from northwest China through Central Asia, West Asia to the Persian Gulf, and the

Mediterranean; the third is from southwest China through the Indo-China Peninsula to the

Indian Ocean. The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road includes two: the first is to cross the HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 6

South China Sea from China's coastal ports to the Indian Ocean through the Straits of

Malacca, and to Europe. The second is to cross the South China Sea from China's coastal ports and extend to the South Pacific (Office of B&R, 2017).

The B&R’s main framework includes six major international economic cooperation corridors: New Asia-Europe Continental Bridge, China-Mongolia-Russia, China-Central

Asia-West Asia, China-Indochina Peninsula, China-Pakistan, Bangladesh-China-India-

Myanmar. Within all the regions above, China will establish a multimodal transportation and connection network, includes roads, railways, shipping, aviation, pipelines, and space. The

B&R will start with a small group of partner countries first, depends on the outcomes of the cooperation, China will decide how the next stage will be. China is also planning to build some important ports and node cities to prosper maritime cooperation (Office of B&R, 2017).

Even though Western scholars started questioning the B&R’s true intention since the first day China published it, it is undeniable that the B&R is getting more attention from the international society. From May 14 to 15, 2017, China held the “One Belt, One Road”

International Cooperation Summit in Beijing. This summit forum was the highest-profile international event under the framework of “One Belt, One Road.” It was also the highest- level and largest multilateral diplomatic activity sponsored and hosted by the country since the founding of the People's Republic of China. It was an important symbol of China's remarkable international status and influence. Heads of state and government from 29 countries attended the conference, consisting of more than 1,500 delegates from more than

130 countries, and more than 70 international organizations, covering all major regions of the five continents. HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 7

During the forum, China signed agreements on cooperation with more than 20 countries and international organizations on the Belt and Road. China has signed agreements with

Cambodia, Turkey, Pakistan, and other countries to strengthen infrastructure construction and promote transportation cooperation and signed intergovernmental economic and trade cooperation agreements with 30 countries. President Xi Jinping announced that China would hold the second "One Belt, One Road" international cooperation summit forum in 2019, and a follow-up liaison mechanism for the summit forum will be set up to lay a solid foundation for the long-term development of the Belt and Road. China proposed to increase the capital of the Silk Road Fund by 100 billion RMB to encourage financial institutions to carry out RMB overseas fund businesses, with a scale of about 300 billion RMB (Ya, 2017)

Background of the B&R

Both the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Maritime Silk Road were named after the

“Silk Road,” a trading route that connected China and Europe thousands of years ago.

Understanding the significance of the Ancient Silk Road to Chinese culture will help readers to have a better understanding of B&R. This section will discuss the background of the the current B&R, including the historical context, the current social background, and the international background.

Historical Contexts

The Silk Road refers to the commercial trade route that originated in ancient China and connected to Asia, Africa, and Europe. In a narrow sense, the Silk Road generally refers to the Silk Road on the land. In a broad sense, it is divided into the Silk Road on both the Land and Maritime realm. HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 8

The Ancient Silk Road on land formed between 2nd and 1st B.C. during the Han Dynasty of China. The iconic-event was when the Emperor Wu sent Zhang Qian to visit the Western regions, taking the capital Chang’an (now Xi'an) as the starting point, through Gansu,

Xinjiang, to Central Asia, West Asia, and connecting the land passages of the Mediterranean countries. Its original role was to transport Silk from ancient China. Therefore, when the

German geographer Ferdinand Freiherr von Richthofen first named it "Silk Road" in the

1870s, it was widely accepted (Richthofen, 1877).

The Maritime Silk Road is a sea passage between ancient China and foreign countries for transportation and cultural exchanges. The road was mainly centered on the South China Sea, so it is also known as the South China Sea Silk Road. The Maritime Silk Road was formed during the Qin and Han Dynasties and developed in the Three Kingdoms Era (220-280 A.D.)

It flourished during the Tang and Song Dynasties During the Ming and Qing Dynasties, though, it was closed due to the seclusion policy that Chinese governor took, It is the oldest known sea route today (Wu, 2004).

The eastern section of the Silk Road, in the broad sense, has reached North Korea, Japan, and the western section to France and the Netherlands. Through the sea, it can also branch out to reach Italy and Egypt and become a road of friendship for economic and cultural exchanges between Asia, Europe, and Africa (Xi, 2018).

The significance of the Silk Road has deeply influenced China since that time. According to a Chinese History textbook, many significances of the Silk Road were mentioned. First, after the opening of the Silk Road, China's cast iron, smelting, drilling, and other technologies were introduced into the Western Region, which promoted the social HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 9

productivities in the Western Region and promoted economic development. Secondly, various varieties of crops and animals in the Western Region have flowed into Central China, enriching people's living conditions and expanding the source of food. Third, it promoted the cultural exchange between China and the Western Regions, greatly promoted the integration of the Han Chinese and other ethnicities. It played a huge role in the unification of the

Chinese nation. Fourth, after the opening of the Silk Road, the various countries in the

Western Region sent envoys to the Han Dynasty and closed the political ties between China and the Western Regions. The Silk Road laid the foundation for the implementation of the administrative management of the Western Regions in the later Han and Tang Dynasties (Wu,

2004).

Social background

Other than the historical significances, the Ancient Silk Road plays a role far more than just a trading route. The Silk Road is more like a totem of the Chinese nationalism and represents the time of Chinese hegemony. At the time that the Silk Road took place, China was not only a wealthy nation; its technologies, political influence, and cultural developments were also ahead of the rest of the world.

Today, the B&R is considered as the extension of the Chinese Dream and the Great

Rejuvenation of China. In another word, the B&R can seem as the implementation plan of the

Great Rejuvenation. More than that, B&R also plays an important role in Xi’s administration.

For Chinese domestic politics, B&R has become the top national strategy. The success of it determines China’s economic growth in the future. According to President Xi, the B&R is the key to the international economic development and growth of China. HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 10

The Chinese Dream and the Great Rejuvenation of China were first mentioned by

President Xi in 2012. After Xi took office, the Chinese Dream became the guiding ideology and ruling philosophy of Xi’s administration. Xi belives that the Chinese Dream is the key of achieving the Great Rejuvenation. The Chinese dream can be summarized as “Two One- hunderd Anniversaries Goal.” To be specific, at the time of 2021, which is the CCP’s one hunderedth anniversary; and 2049, which is the People’s Republic of China’s one hunderedth anniversary, China will achieve the Great Rejuvenation. The circumscription of the Great

Rejuvention includes the domestic economy is highly developed, China stands as the major power of the international society, and the people of China are highly satisfied with their life.

To achieve the Chinese Dream and the Great Rejuvenation, the Chinese government has to follow the socialist road with Chinese characteristics, adhere to the theoretical system of socialism with Chinese characteristics (Xinhua Net, 2017).

However, the Chinese Dream also has its unique significance to Xi’s administration.

Like many other policy and projects that the Chinese government promulagted, the Chinese

Dream over emphasizes its economic function. It uses economic development as the suger coat, to achieve the goal of the centralization. The Chinese Dream is “a little dream of Xi,” it will not only focus on the economic growth but also the political influence and and armed forces (The Economist, 2013).

B&R also has its realistic meanings. Nowadays, China is facing many challenges from inside and outside of the nation. China has a relatively high domestic saving rate. However, the average domestic household consumption is low. The corporate debt is threatening

Chinese business’ financial safety. Local governments often stimulate the local economy by HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 11

encouraging infrastructure building, but that also causes off-balance debt for local government. The Chinese government is also facing increased demands of job opportunities from new urban residents and college graduates. The overwhelmed property market needs the central government’s attention; the Chinese government needs to restrict the property purchases to deflate the real estate market bubble without slowing down economic growth.

The Chinese government also is facing problems like industry overcapacity and low efficient capital management (CIA, 2018).

B&R is one approach for solving the problems, especially for the industrial overcapacity and uneven wealth distribution. By investing in underdeveloped regions and countries,

Chinese industries can find a bigger market for their products. Ding Yifan, the researcher of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said in an interview that: even though now B&R is facing some of the questioning voices, he still insists that B&R will help China’s economic growth become more even. Different from the “Opening up” policy forty years ago, the B&R is more focused on western regions of China, which are less developed areas.

Western China will have more opportunities in international trading under the framework of the B&R. The preferential policy toward western China attracted a good amount of investments because of the lower tax policy and financial subsidy, including the filmmaking companies and manufacturing industry choosing to register and run their business in western

China (Ding, 2015).

Since 2013, the overflow effect of China’s economy became more and more noticeable.

China wants to play the leading role in regional economic development, by investing and supporting surrounding countries to achieve the win-win strategy. China also can expand its HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 12

current economic size with the help of the internet; and China can accelerate the Eurasian economy even the world’s economic development by intensifying its commercial activities within the Eurasian continent (Chen & Tian, 2017).

To utilize and manage this overflow effect, and maximize its benefits, China needs a plan. B&R is the most successful approach so far. B&R transferred the industrial overcapacity from an economic burden to an advantage. Therefore, B&R is not only a political tool that serves Xi’s administration, but also it is undertaking the task of upgrading

China’s current industrial structure.

Political needs

Other than its economic needs, China also needs an effective mean to authenticate, even to manage its claims in certain region. China claims the sovereignty of the South China

Sea based on historical reasons but not on the UNCLOS regulations. One of the critical evidences that the Chinese government holds, is its historical ownership of the South China

Sea. China’s control over the South China Sea, according to Chinese government, can be traced back to the time of the Ancient Maritime Silk Road. Naming the new maritime trading route after the old Silk Road has a symbolic meaning behind it. China is delivering a clear message that the ownership of the South China Sea has, should, and will, always belong to

China, since china’s ownership of this region has consisted of hundreds of years of history

(As China is emphasizing its ownership by reminding the world of the Maritime Silk Road).

China is building ports and other infrastructures at some locations which have no economic values. One possible reason for this is China is not having these ports for commercial purposes, as these ports may serve as potential military bases in the future. HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 13

International background

In 2008, the breakout of the international financial crisis pushed the Chinese economy to a turning point. The developed economies generally received heavy impact from the crisis.

The relationship between China and the world has undergone great changes since then.

According to purchasing power parity, the proportion of G7 in the world economy has dropped from 51% to 33% in 2012; even taking the exchange rate into the consideration, it has fallen from 62% to about 47%. As a large developing country, China made up 15% of the world output under the context of purchasing power parity (International Monetary Fund,

2016).

Ding Yifan believes that the B&R offered China a new opportunity to participate global affairs, and the B&R is also an approach to address the instability of some regions. According to Ding, the success of the B&R will give many war-torn countries, including Afghanistan, a hope for peace. China’s investments will stimulate the capital operation and cooperation in the Central Asia. The stability of the region will become an economic security concern of

China. Therefore, China will dominate the regional reforming for its own interests (Ding,

2015).

China is seeking the promotion of its international status. The Chinese government has been implementing a comprehensive long-term economic policy to maintain and improve its dominating position in the world. The Chinese government hopes that all the Chinese industries can design and manufacture, not just rely on foreign companies. The Chinese government wants to transfer Made in China to designed by China (U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2017). HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 14

At the same time as China wants to maintain its dominance in the world economy, the world economy also needs China’s contribution. In today's world, economic globalization and regional integration have stimulated strong production potential, and scientific and technological progress has greatly improved productivities and living conditions. At the same time, with the rapid development of the economy and society, the interests of countries became more relevant, and the common challenges are also increasing: the world economic growth has slowed down in recent years, the traditional industries are weakening the economy; globalization is facing new difficulties. The global economic governance system fails to react to the new challenges, and the reform of institutional mechanisms is slow; the developed economies have entered the post-industrialization stage, and some developing countries have yet to reach the modernization; The investment system needs to be improved.

A considerable number of national infrastructures are insufficient, and regional development faces bottlenecks. In the face of difficult challenges, only strengthening cooperation is the fundamental way out. Based on this, China proposed the cooperative initiative to build a

“Belt and Road” (Office of B&R, 2017).

According to a survey that the Chinese government made in 2017, B&R is getting increasing attention from the global society. The top five countries that pay most attention to

B&R are The United States of America, United Kingdom, India, South Korea, and Russia.

Chinese government divided the related countries into three categories. First, the close countries along the New Silk Road, such as Russia and Kazakhstan. Due to friendly relations with these countries, there is less uncertainty for China. Chinese policymakers should enforce the information exchanges with these countries to reduce, and even avoid unnecessary costs. HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 15

Second, are the rival countries along the B&R, like the US and Japan. These countries hold a mostly hostile attitude toward the B&R. China should carefully explore the possibility of cooperation with these countries. Third, the countries that are not on the current B&R but have great potential in the future, such as Germany, the UK, France, Australia, China will expand communication with them, as well as look for the potential opportunities of cooperation (Cheng & Yuan, 2017).

By the end of 2016, more than one hundred countries had expressed their willingness to support and participate in the B&R. Almost half of these countries have achieved at least forty agreements with China. China will work on production capacity, investment, economy, trade, finance, science and technology, society, humanities, people's livelihood and ocean exploitation with all these countries together, under the framework of the B&R.

China’s intentions are not just to build an economic framework for its economic development; under today’s international circumstance, B&R has a bigger significance for

China’s energy security, territorial sea disputation, even oversea military infrastructures.

Energy security needs

China’s hesitations of its energy security are embodied in many ways: The pipeline built across the Middle East and Central Asia; Channels and ports are built along the Indian Ocean;

China’s close relationship with Iran etc. All these above show China’s concerns for its energy security. China is one of the biggest crude oil importers in the world. Plus, its rapid economic development and industrial growth are requiring more resources than ever before. The new energy transportation infrastructures will significantly reduce the shipping risks. The ports HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 16

along the Indian Ocean not only cut the costs of the transaction but also the insurance for

China’s energy safety.

Silk Road Economic Belt

Overview

The Silk Road Economic Belt (the Belt) references the “one Belt” part of the B&R. It is the land trading routes that connect China to Central Asia, West Asia, Europe, the Middle

East, and Northern Africa. Under the Framework of the B&R, the Belt creates six corridors; these corridors start at China and extend to six different directions, connecting China with countries that participate in the Belt.

The US is facing a big challenge from China’s new Eurasian strategy. The relationships between China, Russia, and European countries are standing on a pivotal point of history. The opportunities of economic cooperation and cultural exchanges that are brought by the B&R may have changed (or are going to change the current situation).

As for some Central Asian countries and West Asian Countries, these countries voices are barely heard in today’s international realm. However, by participating in the B&R, these countries are now having many opportunities to have conversations with the major powers, all while expecting a significant economic growth shortly due to all the investments that

China made. It is divinable that Central Asian countries’ status will improve in the future.

If the Central Asian countries will play more significant roles in the future, China no doubt will be the country they rely on the most. These countries are most likely to become the devoted allies of China, and China will take advantages from this situation to achieve its HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 17

political goals. This hypothesis is backed up by a precedent of the US’s economic influence in Europe after WWII, known as the “Marshall Plan”.

Marshall Plan, or European Recovery Program, was the economic assistance program that the US made economic assistance and assisted reconstruction in the war-torn Western

European countries, which has had a profound impact on the development of European countries and the world political structure (Office of the Historian, 2018). Today, the B&R is essentially the Chinese version of Marshall Plan; it is accused of buying political influences.

Instead of economic assistance, China is making investments to these countries that potentially will become to the major powers within the region.

The similarity between the B&R and the Marshall Plan brought much attention to

China’s true political intent. Even though the Chinese government has officially denied that

B&R is the Chinese version of the Marshall Plan. China has strained relations with some

Asian countries over many problems; for example, the island dispute with Japan, and the territorial seas conflicts with numerous of the Southeastern Asian countries. Plus, the presence of the US’s influences in the Eastern and Southeastern Asia is a big concern for the

Chinese government. The B&R can be seen as the attempt of China looking for allies to balance the US (and its allies’) existence in this region.

China’s outlook in Central Asia

Before the twenty-first century, Central Asia’s strategic priority in China’s foreign relations was not as high as it is today. Central Asian countries only became significant actors of China’s strategy recently (Ghiasy & Zhou, 2017). Over a sixth of the land corridors are connected to Central Asian countries in China’s B&R program. Central Asia has essential HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 18

meanings for China today, as the New Eurasian Land Bridge is the trading route that connects

China and Kazakhstan (past Western Russia), going all the way to Eastern Europe (also reaching Belarus, Poland, and Germany). The China-Central Asia-West Asia corridor connects China and Turkey, and the Belt is helping China to form a sizeable economic system that covers China, Russia, and Central Asia. The land bridge and corridor have a unique position in the vision of China. By 2015, China had invested 27 billion US dollars in building the railroad in Kazakhstan (Tiezzi, 2016). Central Asia is a pivotal part of China’s big picture, especially to China’s national security concerns.

There are approximately 66 million people living in the Central Asian countries of

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan (CIA, 2018). Most of the

Central Asian States are landlocked. However, their abundant natural resources somehow offset the disadvantages of lacking in the maritime industry and consequently in their economic growth. Including oil, natural gas, mineral, and water resources are widely distributed in this region.

Plus, Central Asia is essentially located between the European and Chinese border, in the

Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, which is one of the unstable regions under the CPC’s governing. Back in 2009, a series of violent riots took place in the capital city of the Xinjiang

Uygur Autonomous Region. It was the breakpoint of the conflict between Han Chinese and

Uygur Chinese. The riots lasted more than five days, causing more than 190 deaths (mostly

Han Chinese), and it was suppressed by troops (BBC, 2009). The 2009 Xinjiang Unrest was not the first time that conflicts erupted within two ethnic groups; there were Ghulja Incident and Kashgar attack which respectively occurred in 1997 and 2008. Both two incidents are HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 19

caused by the conflicts between Uygur Chinese and the local governments, and two incidents all caused several deaths and risen the tension between two ethnic group.

The differences in nationalities, religions, cultures, are the catalysis of the clashing of forces at home and abroad, causing contradictions between the two ethnic groups, leading to violent incidents in recent years. Additionally, the uneven wealth distribution plays a vital role in the instability of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Compared to other regions of China, especially the east coastal areas, Northwestern China is definitively more underdeveloped. The Belt is turning XingJiang into an inland port region, and with the influx of domestic and foreign capital in this area, the Belt will stimulate Northwestern China’s economic growth, relieving the tensions that are brought by the massive gap of wealth.

Moreover, because the Belt connects Central China and XingJiang, it also carries the task of national security. In a predictable future, there will be an increase in communication between Xinjiang and central China. The Cultural exchange and economic cooperation might have positive effects in improving the relations between Xinjiang and the Chinese government.

The Belt is the attempt that China made to maximize its economic and security interests in the Central Asia. However, to achieve its ambition in this area China needs more than just the support from the local governments, it also needs to consider other major actors’ influences in this region: Russia and the US.

Security is one of the biggest concerns that China has in Central Asia. In recent years, the increasing of the security threats has drawn much attention from the Chinese government.

As mentioned previously, the instabilities in the political situation in Xinjiang were instigated HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 20

by overseas terrorist organizations and ethnic separatist forces (only according to the Chinese

Government). Chinese government pointed out that the World Uyghur Congress (WUC) was the wire-puller of series of the violent incidents happened in Xinjiang. The Chinese government considers that the WUC as a terrorist organization, moreover, the Chinese government believes that one of the biggest obstacles to undermine or even wipe out the influences of the WUC is that China does not have the full access to the Central Asia (where the most of the WUC’s activities take places). The Belt as an approach, essentially allows

China to work closely with the Central Asian states (Huanqiu, 2014).

Therefore, the peace and stability of Central Asia comes down to China’s core national interests. From the standpoint of the economic return and national security concerns, China has the motivation to work with all five Central Asian states together, to address the security threats within this region. Both the Chinese government and official scholars have mentioned that cooperating with China may lead the Central Asian state and China to a “Win-Win”

(Ding, 2015; Ghiasy & Zhou, 2017; Swaine, 2015).

Today, Central Asian states are facing many problems among nations, such as resource sharing disputes and border security issues. Due to the weakness of the central governments, the Central Asian states are commonly facing more domestic threats; for example, corruption, unfriendly business environment, bad reputation, and organized crime. Indeed, compared to other locations in the world, the Central Asian states have a natural disadvantage, they do not have coasts. According to the World Bank, the landlocked states have slower economic growth due to the higher logistic costs and uncertainty of the supply chain(Arvis, Raballand,

& Marteau, 2007). The underdevelopment, on the one hand, could be the results of all the HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 21

unsecured elements; moreover, the underdevelopment also could be the cause of the security threats.

The investment from China is an excellent opportunity for the Central Asian states. Plus, for its national interests, China tends to cooperate with the local government to establish a safe environment for its investment. The Belt offers a framework for cooperation, a good chance for Central Asian states to kickstart their economy, as the economic growth may also be able to address some of the security threats and fundamentally improve the current situation. A friendlier business environment will attract further cooperation. The Belt is playing a significant role in bringing the Central Asian economic system to a virtuous cycle.

Potential benefits

The Belt also plays a decisive role in releasing the interstate tensions. The disputes among in the Central Asian states are mainly concentrated upon border security and resource disputes. Among these disputes, water and energy disputes are the major causes of the conflicts between the states.

One example of water conflict is between Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and the rest of the

Central Asian States. As a scarce resource in the region, water issues have triggered tensions between Central Asian countries. Since the independence of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan,

Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, countries along the cross-border rivers in Central

Asia have been plagued by water use, and water crises and disputes caused by water resources have affected the security of the region. Surface water in Central Asia is extremely unevenly distributed, and the primary water sources are in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 22

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have surface water in the upper reaches (accounting for 43.4% and 25.1%) which take up more than two-thirds of the entire Central Asian region. Only in

Tajikistan does 55.49% of the water flow, while more than 60% of the glaciers in Central

Asia are concentrated. The Amu Darya River, formed in Tajikistan, and the Syr River, formed in Kyrgyzstan, are the main stream of the Aral Sea Basin. The three countries, Uzbekistan,

Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, accounted one-third of the sum for the surface water resources in Central Asia.

In Kazakhstan, the average annual amount of river water was only twenty thousand cubic meters, coming in second to last place in the CIS countries. Water resources in

Kazakhstan are unevenly distributed, and water resources in the central and southern irrigated areas are particularly scarce. In Turkmenistan, which is rich in oil, there has been a saying,

"water is more expensive than oil." The country's per capita water resources are only 217 cubic meters. Its neighbor, Uzbekistan, is 702 cubic meters. The per capita water resources of these two countries are far below the critical line of the UN water crisis - the per capita annual water resource of 1,000 cubic meters (which is a serious water shortage for the country). The water disputes in this region have the potential to became “wars” (Lopour,

2015). However, the water problem in Central Asia is a double-edged sword that can induce conflicts and provide an opportunity to promote cooperation; the key is to look at it from a different perspective. Besides the water disputes, the border issue is another significant threat to Central Asian States’ security. “none of the five states has fully demarcated borders”

(Ghiasy & Zhou, 2017). Central Asia has a long history of external power dominated cooperation. HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 23

Will China’s involvement lead the Central Asian states to reach a more peaceful and sustainable agreement? The optimistic analysis that China can improve the relations between countries in this region. However, to address all the issues under the Belt framework is extremely difficult. How will the Belt improve the current situation of Central Asia? In the predictable future, a more powerful central government is required in the cooperation with

China, and with other nations. Once again, the weakness of the governance in all the Central

Asian states creates conditions for corruption and organized crime. China is looking forward to helping Central Asian Countries to strengthen reign.

Another potential benefit that the Belt is bringing to Central Asia is: a new domestic order may be formed under China’s Belt framework. The central Asian States are not only facing these international problems but also suffering from their domestic issues. A few of common challenges include corruption, weak institution and poor governance.

Challenges in Central Asia

It is difficult to say what are the causes of the current situation in Central Asia. The corruption, on the one hand, leads to poor governance. On another hand, the corruption is caused by the government's weakness. Corruption and poor governmental performance are two elements of a vicious circle, undermining the political environment of the region.

Drug trade plays a vital role in weakening the governmental capacities in Central Asia. A big portion of the influx of capital that has been used to erode corrupt politicians are from drug trafficking. According to the data from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

(UNODC), by 2015, Afghanistan still be considered the largest monopolist of the worldwide opium market. These drugs are carried, through the Central and West Asian states, and HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 24

finally arrive in Europe and other markets. The tremendous economic interests are the motivation of the drug industry. On the "Balkan Route (the drug trafficking route from

Central Asia to Europe)," approximately USD 28 billion's wealth is created every year. This number is three times larger than Afghanistan’s GDP (United Nations Office on Drugs and,

2018).

That only concludes Afghanistan's one drug trafficking route. However, the demands of other drug markets are increasing. The "Southern Route," that connects Africa, and the

"Northern Route," which connects Central Asia, are carrying more drugs than ever before.

The drug trafficking creates a condition for corruption. According to the UN report, although the customs inspection system has been improved and the border guards have carried out extensive inspections, most of the opium transported along the northern route has flowed into Tajikistan as before. Although the economy of Tajikistan is developing, it has not yet reached the level that can form the current domestic construction boom. Observers believe that the income of the drug trade generates the abnormally high prices of real estate in

Dushanbe and other areas. Observers have also found an increase in living standards, also along with other signs, such as expensive homes and cars, are something that their owners, government officials, cannot afford.

Uzbekistan has grave doubts about its neighbors, and it protects the border between the country and Afghanistan best. Uzbekistan is the only country in Central Asia that has seen an increase in the number of drugs seized in 2010 (an increase of 25%). All opium from

Tajikistan entering Uzbekistan is transported by rail and road. Uzbekistan, like all other HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 25

countries in Central Asia, has the problem of law enforcement and security staff accepting bribes to turn a blind eye to drug trafficking (De Danieli, 2014 P1239).

There are indications that some senior government officials are acting as “protective umbrellas” for the illegal drug trade or otherwise involving with the drug trade. Since the independence of Central Asia in 1991, no drug traffic leader has been arrested. This shows the power and influence of the criminal network. The corruption has become a significant threat of border security, state capacity and the favorable economic development of the region.

Scruples and concerns of China’s investment

China claims that its involvement will undoubtedly improve the current situation (Ding,

2015). However, it is still questionable that China’s investments will address Central Asian nations’ problem or make it worse.

What needs to be noticed is, some of the agreements that China has made with the

Central Asian States, are not all aboveboard. Many back-room deals are made in several informal occasions. Bribing senior officers in the government is widely used in China's negotiations. For example, in a state oil assets purchase, which took place in Kazakhstan, the

China National Petroleum Corporation was accused of bribing Kazakh elite (Chazan, 2010).

Several shreds of evidence show that: instead of putting all the money in the operational projects, part of China's investments ended up in the pockets of some Central Asian

Countries' senior officers. Even without considering the bribe that made by China investor itself, the local governments do not seem to handle these investments appropriately. HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 26

Quote from Kemel Toktomush, a research fellow in the University of Central Asia,

"Central Asia is the region predominantly characterized by corrupt, autocratic, family, or clan-based governance, where the perennial dilemma of the ruling regimes becomes the goal of achieving short-term regime security at the expense of long-term state-building objectives.

(Kemel, 2015)" Indeed, in some of the cases, the investments from China have become the new source of the gray income of some government officers. The president of Tajikistan was accused of taking advantages from a highway construction project that sponsored by China.

China claims that Central Asian Nations’ attitudes toward The Belt project are positive and welcoming. To China, The Central Asian countries are important partners in building the

“Belt and Road” initiative. In China’s reports, they (Central Asia Countries) strongly agree with the "Belt and Road Initiative" and believe that this is a rare opportunity to take the

"China Express." At present, the enthusiasm of the five Central Asian countries to participate in the construction of the "Belt and Road" has been continuously improved, and cooperation with China has been incorporated into their respective national strategic frameworks (Xu,

2018). However, even China itself also mentioned: As Central Asian countries actively participate in the construction of the "Belt and Road," economic and trade cooperation between Central Asian countries and China continues to heat up, and their dependence on

China's trade and the market continues to rise.

China’s profligate spending in Central Asia has caused doubts from the inside of these countries. China is Kyrgyzstan's largest trading partner, the largest source of imports and the largest source of investment. In 2017, the total bilateral trade in goods between China and

Kyrgyzstan was about 5.6 billion US dollars, accounting for 27% of the total import and HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 27

export of Kyrgyzstan. Chinese companies invest in Kyrgyzstan mainly in the fields of energy, rubber, plastics manufacturing, and non-metallic mineral production, geological exploration and mining of mineral products (the observatory of economic complexity, 2018). In 2016,

China Road & Bridge Corporation signed a contract with Kyrgyz National Railway Company to participate in railway, highway, tunnel, airport construction and other infrastructure construction.

Kyrgyzstan’s debt owed to China has risen sharply, and the loans provided by China are closely linked to local corruption. These issues are becoming the focus of recent attention of the Central Asian countries. Many members of the Kyrgyz parliament have called for an investigation into all investment loan projects offered by China in the Kyrgyz infrastructure construction sector. China has now become the biggest creditor of Kyrgyzstan. In the external debt of Kyrgyzstan, China’s debt has reached 44%. China provided Kyrgyz with more than

$380 million in loans in 2017 to help rebuild the Bishkek central heating center. The loan was provided with conditions that include the construction of a project by a Chinese company.

However, after the completion of this project, the central heating center suddenly broke down in the cold of minus 30 degrees in January in next year, causing the indoor temperature of many residential houses in the capital Bishkek to drop to freezing point. The Kyrgyz parliament and the cabinet respectively formed two committees to investigate the incident, and the heads of several energy companies were also arrested. For all the breakdown occurred in the old unit of the central heating center that was commissioned in the 1960s, and the new unit built by the Chinese company still operated as usual, the Chinese loan was found to be involved in corruption during the investigation (Putz, 2018). HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 28

Under the specific circumstance, China's loans are not to rebuild energy projects, but for the corrupt officials to make a fortune, and this will undoubtedly aggravate the burden of the people. If these issues cannot be addressed shortly, Kyrgyzstan will be one of the most intense Central Asian countries with an anti-China sentiment. Although some Kyrgyz officials are corrupt and lack moral conscience, China's investment and loans in the Kyrgyz infrastructure sector are also very short-sighted. Not only can it not win the hearts of the people, but it also aggravates the local society's resentment against China. China's future investment in order to change its image in the local society may be more.

The most frightening thing is that Kyrgyz may not be able to pay its debts to China after a few years. Moreover, a big concern about that is: Kyrgyzstan may also lose its independence. Dissidents are worrying about that Kyrgyzstan may be the next one walk into

China’s “debt-trap."

In a BBC article titled “Sri Lanka: A country trapped in debt” posted in 2017, pointed that Sri Lanka was giving out its territory to pay off the debt (Limaye, 2017). In another article that posted by AsiaTimes, the author called Sri Lanka “the latest victim of China’s

Debt-trap Diplomacy” (Chellaney, 2017). In 2017, due to lack of ability to pay off the debt,

Sri Lanka had no choices but offers its Hambantota port-one strategically location-to China.

Despite the fact that the port was funded and built by the Chinese company, Sri Lanka is still the owner of the port. Since now the local government is struggling with the money, the

Chinese company may get as high as 80%’s share of the port.

Sri Lankan government’s decision has caused a series of opposition in the country. "We do not like our land being given away to China, not just China, if any country comes and HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 29

takes land from Sri Lanka, we do not like it. The government should protect our land, not sell it." Said by a Sri Lanka fisherman Aruna Roshantha (Limaye, 2017).

Knowing this precedent, Kyrgyzstan’s concern became more intelligible. When China was lending, it was known that Kyrgyz was unable to pay its debts. China may acquire

Kyrgyz minerals, energy and even territory in the future. Another Central Asian country,

Tajikistan, has been unable to repay China's debt and handed over some of the disputed lands in the Badak Mountain area to China. China has already sent troops to station it, and

Kyrgyzstan should be vigilant. China's loans to Central Asian countries usually do not carry any political conditions, and they have low-interest rates and long durations, so they are welcomed by Central Asian countries. However, Chinese loans usually require the use of

Chinese companies' services, equipment and building materials (Dirk, 2017).

Tajikistan's owed to China's debt is more severe than Kyrgyz. China's debt made up half of Tajik’s external debt. China is gradually dragging Tajik into the debt trap. Tajik is unable to pay its debts, and it will probably take mineral resources, strategic enterprises, and even territories to pay debts to China in the future. Since Tajikistan already ceded land to China in

2011 (BBC, 2011).

The beautiful “Win-Win” image that China drew for the Central Asian Countries are more like a sugar-coat. It is clear to say that China’s intention in this region is far more than just economic cooperation. China’s massive lending has not only made local officials more corrupt, but Tajik may even become a Chinese colony or a province. China will not give money in vain, and Tajik’s dependence on China will further deepen. China has also had HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 30

close military cooperation with Tajikistan which has made the military of the two countries closer (Eder, 2018).

The three Central Asian countries of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan are now very dependent on China because of the loans and the investment from China. However,

China’s investment did not promote the economic development in Central Asia and did not create more job opportunities for local people like it claimed. Chinese loans made a minimal number of elites in Central Asia get rich.

China's strategy is to establish a stable cornerstone in Central Asia so that this backyard will not cause trouble for China so that the separatist forces will not enter Xinjiang, and at the same time, Central Asia will serve as a base for energy and raw materials supply.

The strength and influence of the US in Central Asia

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Central Asia became an important emerging geopolitical sector within the US strategy. After the "9/11", the fight against Afghan terrorist forces has become the primary task of US foreign policy, and the strategic significance of

Central Asia has been strengthened.

In the early 1990s, the Soviet Union collapsed, and Central Asia became an emerging geopolitical sector emerging. The US took advantage of it to fill the vacuum of geopolitical power. At that time, the policy goal of the US was to deal with some matters related to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, first of all, to control and destroy weapons of mass destruction. In Central Asia (Mukherji, Kasenov, & Tiku, 1997, P31), this part of the affairs was mainly aimed at the proliferation of nuclear weapons in Kazakhstan and the smuggling of nuclear materials; The second is to control the energy production base and its sales and try HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 31

to get the energy exports of Central Asian countries out of Russia's control. In the Soviet era, because Central Asia was located in the interior of Europe and Asia, away from the European and American international markets, almost all of the export routes of oil and gas resources in

Central Asia led to Moscow (Lopour, 2015,P4).

In order to help Central Asian countries to get rid of their dependence on Russia, the US has planned to build oil and gas pipelines bypassing Russia, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline (BTC). The pipeline managed to transport crude oil from Azerbaijan and parts of

Central Asia to the Mediterranean coast through the Transcaucasian countries and into the

European market. This is the second longest oil and gas pipeline in the former Soviet Union

(Lopour, 2015 P5).

At that time, the US had other goals for Central Asian policy, such as the realization of the separation of powers and democratic constitutional government, the economic transformation of the market economy, and try to get Central Asia out of dependence on

Russia. However, at this time, Central Asia is not the focus of the US foreign strategy, and it has not become a high political area of the US. It is treated as a geopolitical sector in the post-

Soviet space with six countries in eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Azerbaijan,

Georgia, and Armenia.

After the "9.11" incident, the priority of US foreign decision-making started to shift. It later caused the US policy change in Central Asia. The US began a large-scale military operation in Afghanistan, and it was urgent to lease military bases in Central Asia to match the logistics supply of the Afghan military operations. This was the first time that US hard power has entered Russia's sphere of influence. HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 32

In modern times, in addition to the Russian army, Central Asia has entered the army of other countries. Central Asia has also become an open area for militaries. The US policy toward Central Asia is entirely based on Afghanistan. The interests of the US in Central Asia are an extension of its strategy toward Afghanistan (Stronski, 2016, P1). The US does not have a close national interest in Central Asia itself. This is different from China. China's implementation of the "Belt and Road" international cooperation has generated many strategic interests in Central Asia, including overseas security interests because China has many infrastructure construction projects in Central Asia, and the US has no such problems as China. The most important strategic interests of the US in Central Asia are these military bases, which were established to support Afghan military operations. It is in this sense that

Central Asia has changed from a low political sphere to a high political sphere. To this end, the US has made some compromises: It does not require the Central Asian countries to promote the core concepts of American values such as democracy, freedom and human rights, as well as some of the old-fashioned socialism in Central Asian countries, including family rule and high centralization.

The situation has changed since Obama’s administration. An extraordinary commitment made by Obama to take office is to withdraw troops from Afghanistan. However, the situation in Afghanistan cannot allow the US military to get out. The Afghan government has minimal control and the Taliban control most of the area. If the US military withdraws, Afghanistan is likely to be re-controlled by the Taliban. This means that the US is politically defeated, and all of Afghanistan's investment, including expenditures and casualties, has finally vanished.

Obama certainly will not accept this ending willingly, and the withdrawal of troops in HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 33

Afghanistan will be delayed. In 2017, the US military still has about 11,000 people in

Afghanistan. If the US military withdraws now, Afghanistan's national reconstruction and political power maintenance will become a big problem (Helene, 2017).

Overview

The strategic goals of the US in Central Asia are mostly in line with China's strategic interests. In the current policy priorities of the US, the US' opponents in Central Asia are first of all: terrorism, especially the unstable situation in the northern region, which threatens the stability of Central Asia. Russia pays close attention to the US’s operation in Central Asia, which is because of the historical reasons of the Cold War competition. Due to the decline of

Russia's economic strength and the decline in its influence on Central Asia, the US is not very worried, but the existence of the US maintains the openness and balance of Central Asia. The third is the leaders of the Central Asian countries. The values of these leaders deviate from

American values.

Military strength is the most useful trump card, but it will not be easily played. It is mainly used in Afghanistan and for strategic deterrents, mainly aim to terrorism. The US economic approach is also limited, because Central Asia is not a priority area for the US, and the importance of energy supply is also declining. Therefore, the actions of the United States in Central Asia are constrained by many unfavorable conditions, and Central Asia is not strategically important to the United States.

Central Asia’s importance to international relation

Central Asia became a hot spot in 2015. Indian Prime Minister Modi (BBC, 2015),

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, 2015) and US HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 34

Secretary of State Kerry have visited Central Asian countries (Weitz, 2015) and established conventional dialogue mechanisms between the five Central Asian countries and Japan, and the five Central Asian countries and the US. Japan is also committed to providing various huge loans and financial assistance to Central Asian countries. Japan, the US, India and other major powers entering the Central Asian region is a response to the expansion of China's influence. Central Asian countries are pursuing diversified diplomacy. The locals are worried about China's expansion and Chinese immigration. They also have a distrust of Russia and believe that Russia is a threat. Coupled with the active presence of extremist Islamist forces and the instability of Afghanistan, these factors provide opportunities for other major powers to expand their influence in Central Asia.

At present, in Central Asia, China and the US have not yet become competitors. China and the US are teammates in balancing the influence of major powers and opposing terrorism. Of course, after the Belt and Road initiative, China has some expansion momentum in Central Asia, but this expansion still needs to be evaluated. The US and China share common interests in the reconstruction of Afghanistan, the fight against terrorism and cross- border crimes such as drug trafficking. China needs to use the influence of the US in Central

Asia to promote the economic interests of Central Asia. The most significant problems in

Central Asia are inadequate development, pre-modernization, and the lack of modernization of economic development, thus providing space for the rise of the threatening forces, especially the religious extremist forces. Once the major powers (the US, Russia， China) lose control of Central Asia, the extremism will surely come back. As Central Asia and the

Transcaucasian, the Middle East, and the Middle East are geopolitically connected, the HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 35

fragility of Central Asia will lead to the excitement of surrounding Islamism. Under this circumstance, the national security of the US, will once again, be exposed to the threating of the terrorism. Most of the effort that the US made sine 2003 will be discarded.

Moreover, the US's strategy may bring unexpected benefit to the US. The role that the

US plays in Central Asia is very peculiar. On the one hand, as stated before, Central Asia is not one of the core interests of the US. There are no close allies of the US in this region.

Unlike the South China Sea disputes, have become the front line of the confrontation between

China and Southern Asian Countries. The US must stand on the opposite side of China. On another hand, there is a potential scenario that China and Russia's interests in this area may clash in the future. This conflict will benefit the US in the Long run. Quote form Rumer,

Sokolsky, and Stronsk:

For the most part, Central Asia will remain an area of general interest for U.S.

nonproliferation efforts rather than a region of particular concern (Rumer et al., 2016,

P1).

China's participates of Central Asian affairs are more cautious. It is limited to formal cooperation and energy and infrastructure construction. It is tied to Russia's policy toward

Central Asia to avoid differences between the two sides. There is not much overlap between

China and the US in Central Asia, and the areas of concern and focus are different

(Cordesman, 2014). The differences between China and the US are mainly in the "color revolution." In this regard, China and Russia hold a critical position toward the US. China and the US have no fundamental conflicts of interest in Central Asia. Russia is worried that

China will weaken its influence. However, the US does not have this concern. Central Asia HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 36

itself is not its strategic core area, and the US does not have many resources for the superpower games.

Even though China try not to touch Russia's sensitive nerve in this region, however,

Russia has felt the pressure from the expansion of China (Marcin, 2015). China only participates Central Asian affairs via economic means, not involve a military operation. The reason behind it is that may dissatisfy Russia. Russia and China are close neighbors of

Central Asia and have geographical advantages. Close contact in the field of economy, trade and security cooperation are the main reasons China and Russia have such big influences in

Central Asia. Japan, the US and other countries cannot be compared with China and Russia’s influences in this region. Therefore, the game on the Central Asian stage is still dominated by

China and Russia today, and it is difficult for foreign forces to change this situation.

However, it also an opportunity for the US to use the complicated relations between China and Russia to maximize its interest.

In summary, three major interests of the US in Central Asia should guide the US's strategy making. First, the weapons of mass destruction that left from the Soviet Union.

Second, Islamic terrorism that still active in this region. Third, the superpowers involved with

Central Asia. Overall, China’s B&R brings more opportunities than Challenges to the US

(Rumer et al., 2016).

China's policy toward Central Asia is considered as follows: First, to ensure the stability of the western border and to resolve the boundary between the Soviet Union and the Central

Asian countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The second is to obtain the Central

Asian energy supply base and enjoy priority in other resource development. This cooperation HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 37

is mainly based on a bilateral framework. The third is to promote Central Asia to become an international gateway and international market for the opening of the west, extending to countries along the "Belt and Road." None of these policies is against the US’s interests in this region (Lopour, 2015 P2).

Policy recommendations

China-Russia relations

Both China and Russia are as low-key as possible and are unwilling to render the two countries' fierce competition in Central Asia. However, more and more voices from Russia are showing worries and dissatisfaction with China's exclusion of Russia in Central Asia

(Marcin, 2015). Russia's various problems are riddled with innocence, and he has provided opportunities for China to expand its influence. Central Asian countries are all raw material exporting countries. The current economic situation has made Central Asian countries in need

Chinese funds, so they all actively want to participate in China's "One Belt, One Road" plan.

On the other hand, the troubles in the security field in Central Asia are lingering. How can China protect its interests in Central Asia without Russia’s help when the security situation deteriorates? It only the matter of time that Chinese military takes a step further in

Central Asia. As China's investment in Central Asia increases, China will also be more involved in Central Asia and must face how to help the local solution to economic, political and security issues.

Both China and Russia are major powers in the world, and what else in common between these two countries is, they both host a hostile attitude toward the US in many scenarios. China is currently having a trade war with the US. Long before the trade war broke HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 38

out, the US has been accusing the Chinese government manipulate the Exchange rates and dumping exports. Other than the disputes than two countries have in the economic aspect, in the political area, two nations seem less likely to be peacefully coexisting. China and the US could not reach the agreement in the South China Sea issues. China is unhappy about the

US’s involvement in the South China Sea matters. As for Russia, the conflicts between the

US and Russia can be traced back to the Cold War era. Even after the collapse of the USSR,

Russia, as the main legacy of the Soviet Union, inherited the enmity tradition.

In some cases, Russia is even harder to be approached than China. For example, the Syria problems and Acritical exploitation. Compare to China, that avoid confronting with the US directly, Russia never grudges its veto to an American proposal.

The Belt brings new changes to Central Asia, and the predominated powers may be reshuffled in this region. Russia’s position has shaken by China’s expansion. Russia is a very capricious partner, compared with Russia, China's diplomatic and economic policies are relatively stable, although China appears to be very practical and greedy in bilateral exchanges with Central Asian countries. The volatility and aggressiveness in Russia's geopolitical field are damaging the interests of Central Asian countries, and Kazakhstan and other countries have felt (Stronski, 2018). Therefore, Russia replaced by China as the dominator may have become true in the future.

The increasingly distrusts between Beijing and Moscow in Central Asia creates greater interests for the US, and these interests are not only limited in Central Asia. By playing the

Central Asia Card rightly, the US can achieve some accomplishments with China or Russia.

For example, the US can use Russia to slow down China’s economic expansion; or, align HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 39

with China in some aspect, to check Russia’s invasion. A few of policy options are available for the US policymakers.

First, Pulling Russia, isolated China. Under this policy, the US will relax sanctions and military pressure on Russia to cope with the larger and longer-term strategic threats brought about by China's expansion. The US can increase its pressure on China’s trade and investment (Trade War), strengthen the deployment of military forces around China (South

China Sea, India, Japan, and South Korea). Expressing its opposition to China's expansion of its control over disputed areas and be wary of China's self-centered trade and investment through the "Belt and Road" initiative. At the same time, inform Russia the willingness to negotiate about strengthen the relationship between the US, Russia and those countries in

Asia that resist China's control. The benefit of this policy is that the US and Russia will reach consensus on areas that China may dominate. For Beijing, under the strict policy of the US, on the one hand, it is worried that the US will win over Russia.

On the one hand, it must maintain healthy relations with the US for the sake of profit.

This situation may cause China to adjust its policy toward the US to prevent Russia and the

US. Jointly against with China. The risk of this policy is that the situation will not develop as expected. China-Russian relations may be influential. If the US does not make more concessions, it may not be able to drive a wedge between China and Russia.

Another option is： While strengthening cooperation with China, increasing sanctions against Russia and isolate Russia. The advantage of this policy is that it is consistent with the current US policy toward Russia. At the same time, the US can also privately warn China that cooperation with Russia may damage the common interests of China and the US. The likely HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 40

outcome is that Russia may feel more passive and seek to establish a more cooperative relationship with the US. The optimal results are Russia make a compromise in Syria problems and its military operations in Europe. The risk is that the result may be counterproductive. The relationship between China and Russia is very close. If the US cannot be more tolerant, it may not be able to leave turn Russia against China. At the same time,

Russia may take counter-actions to contain the US by supporting Iran in the Middle East and increasing military pressure and threats in Europe.

The third option may not have many out-of-regions benefits as the previous options, but it has less uncertainty, that will not damage the US’s Bilateral relations with China or Russia.

That is cooperating with two nations in Central Asia. It needs to be emphasized that the US has not core interests’ conflicts with China or Russia in this area, so much so that the US share the common interests with them. Terrorism is one of the primary tasks that the US has in Central Asia; it is in the interest of China and Russia. However, Overemphasizing

American democracy and human rights issues instigating the "color revolution" will cause

Central Asian countries and China and Russia to be highly vigilant against the US.

Uzbekistan issued an order for the US military in Uzbekistan to leave, and Kyrgyzstan also closed the US Air Force Base in 2014, it was against the US’ willing that having air and ground forces in this area (Sha’ban, 2006). Overall, the Central Asian Countries still hold a hostile attitude to the American value system. The ranking of US policy objectives in Central

Asia should be changed. Counter-terrorism should be the main task, and the promotion of political and economic reforms should be reduced to the second place.

Terrorism and weapons of mass destruction HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 41

Discussing terrorism and the weapons of mass destruction together is because that both these two topics are related to the US’s security interests in this region, and both issues cannot be addressed without the cooperation from Russia. In the past two decades, the US has been working hard to non-proliferation of the nuclear weapons that left in this region and fight against the terrorists. The "9.11" incident has dramatically increased the level of US attention to Central Asia. The Central Asian region has quickly become the frontier for the

US to implement the global counter-terrorism strategy. Since then, the US has begun to adjust its Central Asian policy substantially and has intensified its penetration of Central Asia through military strikes against Afghanistan (Jones, 2017, P3). It has successively established military bases in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Before that, there were no American troops in this area. As a result, there has been a situation in which Russian and American military forces coexist for the first time in the same region or even in the same country.

However, Central Asia soon became the mire that the US trapped.

The Belt may bring new chances to the US. Especially China, after all the investment that China has made in this region, there is an urgent demand for security from Beijing. Since

China worries that sending troops to Central Asia will raise the tension between China and

Russia, China still needs to rely on Russia on safekeeping affairs in Central Asia. Once again, as mentioned before, there are a couple of reasons that Russia is not a reliable partner for

China: first, the decline of the economy has reduced the influences of Russia in this region.

Second, the volatility and aggressiveness of Russia’s geopolitical sphere make China needs to rethink the cooperation with Russia. Three, Russia is plagued by various problems and has no regard for Central Asian affairs. HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 42

China is not ready to defend its economic interests and some projects in Central Asia directly by force and military means. In the same time, the US still seeks a certain number of military forces remain in the region. In the post 9/11 era, The US military had signed military cooperation agreements with several countries in Central Asia and rented Manas Airport in

Kyrgyzstan and Hannabad Airport in Uzbekistan to support the US military in Central Asia.

Regional military operations. With the airport and military bases, the US military transport aircraft can take off and land at the airport around the clock. Therefore, due to its geostrategic security considerations, Russia firmly opposes the US military stationed here and has always urged Kyrgyzstan to close the Manas US military base to eliminate this potential threat. In

2009, Kyrgyzstan abolished the agreement of the US military to rent Manas Air Force Base.

However, then Kyrgyzstan leased the renamed Manas International Transit Center to the US.

By June 2013, Kyrgyzstan had once again terminated the US contract to rent the Manas

International Transit Center, requiring the US troops stationed there to leave (Pillalamarri,

2014). The close relationship that China has with the Kyrgyz government may be able to change the current situation. If the US and China achieve an agreement that bases on the security, the US may be able to keep the military existing in Central Asia. However, this may be difficult without the approval of Russia.

Conclusion

The B&R represents the core interests that China has in Central Asia. China is seeking a method to address its internal problems such as the instability of Western China, overcapacity and economic development slows down. At the same time, it also plays an essential role in HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 43

China's international strategies. For example, it provides a historical backup for South China

Sea disputes, and more importantly, it will improve China’s energy security significantly.

China’s Belt policy in Central Asia has no conflict with America's national interests.

China's security needs in the region meet the US's expectation. The US’s concerns in Central

Asia include weapons of mass destruction, terrorism and pushing the economic and political reforming. According to the current situation, The US should slow down its promotion of democratic values and human rights, since it has already caused the vigilance and resentment in Central Asian countries and Russia. Nowadays, the US policy toward Central Asia should be more focus on the cooperation with China and Russia. Three countries play essential roles in the international society, and they all share the same interests in Central Asia, which creates the condition for cooperation.

Considering Central Asia and South Asia as a geopolitical whole, the five Central Asian countries are vulnerable areas that threaten the security of western China at any time.

Therefore, China needs to cooperate with the US, Russia and India to provide a reinforcement bracket for this geopolitical zone through two triangular relationships. After the big countries provide a stable external environment, China and the US can cooperate and use the resources and conditions of both sides to cooperate in some low-political and sub-regional regions of

Central Asia.

The US needs to position itself into the relation between China and Russia carefully.

China and Russia have a close relationship, but China's expansion in Central Asia-used to be the backyard of Russia-has caused distrusts within two countries. How to use these interstices between China and Russia to maximize its benefits will be a big problem need to be solved by the US policymaker. HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 44

HOW BALD EAGLE FLIES ON THE NEW SILK ROAD 45

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