Flooding in Central

Summary

Flooding along China’s Yangtze River has been testing the Three Gorges Dam, the largest dam in the world, topping record levels, displacing over a million of people, and triggering a large-scale government response. Cities along the river are now preparing for the third major flood this summer. Flooding has already affected more than 54.8 million people, leaving 158 dead or missing in 27 prefectural provinces including major cities such as Chongqing, , , and . Private-sector security managers should continue to monitor the situation, although so far it has not had a significant supply-chain impact for U.S. organizations.

Recent Rainfall and Flooding

Rainfall throughout the Yangtze River Basin is at its highest levels since 1961, and has already risen above the average rainfall for the entire rainy season, with several weeks to go. Storm water coming down the Yangtze into the reservoir behind the Three Gorges Dam has maintained the same peak flow rate for ten straight days. Since flooding began in June, 30 Chinese rivers have set record water levels. However, forecasters warn the lag effect of heavy rain upriver could still create new flood risks on the Yangtze. The dam’s operator has put itself on what it calls “wartime footing.” Officials have lifted numerous floodgates to ease the pressure in the dam, forcing riverside cities downstream to evacuate.

China’s National Meteorological Center has predicted continued torrential rain all along the river. China typically experiences a heavy flood season, which is most severe from late July to mid-August, during ’s monsoon season. For the most part, water levels have not risen above embankments, dikes, and dams, but have come close. Local governments continue to monitor the situation and prepare strategically for upcoming rainfall. The direct economic loss from the flooding is over $20 billion. Compared to the average of the past five years during summer floods, the number of people affected has increased by 23% and evacuations by 36%.

Three Gorges Dam

China’s Ministry of Emergency Management and the Yangtze Water Resources Commission have issued strict orders to officials managing mega dams and reservoirs on the upper reach of the Yangtze, particularly in Sichuan province, to control floodwaters going downstream to prevent too much water from collecting at the Three Gorges Dam. While Sichuan anticipates heavy rainfall and flooding, the provincial emergency management and water resources departments have declared that over 8,000 mid-and small-size reservoirs are on standby to further reduce floodwaters going downstream. A July 27 Xinhua report stated that Three Gorges Dam has 13 days left before the reservoir will fill to capacity. In the meantime, cities downstream must prepare for the dam to release more floodwaters.

International media outlets have raised concerns regarding the possibility of a dam collapse due to flooding. Water in the dam’s reservoir has passed warning levels, and officials have already had to blast open two major dams on the Chuhe River in Province to release floodwaters. Chinese officials claim these larger concerns are merely a misinformation campaign to discredit the country, that their counter-flood measures are having success, and the dam is secure.

What areas have experienced flooding so far?

• Sichuan Province: Local forecasts in have warned of another round of heavy rains in Sichuan and Chongqing provinces. Previous bouts of flooding have caused landslides and other disasters in recent months. Sichuan province issued a “Yellow Alert” for geological disasters related to recent flooding. In Chongqing, authorities noted the worst flooding ever recorded.

• Province: The Wuhan city government has ordered the closure of 188 ferry gates, closed river ports, and deployed over 12,000 volunteers to patrol vulnerable spots along the Yangtze and its tributaries. More than 100 workers have stacked sandbags behind the anti-flood wall alongside the Yangtze River, while officials stationed in watch posts along the riverbank monitor rising water levels as part of the government’s emergency measures. Wuhan remains at level flood warning 2, the second- highest on a four-level scale.

• Province: In , Hunan’s capital, the water level has exceeded the “Red Alert” level and previous records set in a massive 1998 flood. Some roads in the city have flooded, but public transportation remained unaffected. Authorities continue to release warnings about high water levels in nearby Donting Lake. • Province: Incessant downpours have pushed Poyang Lake waters to record highs. Jiangxi increased its flood-control response from level 2 to level 1, the highest emergency response level for floods in China. Floods have cut off rural roads, leaving parts of the province accessible only by boat. The government sent in over 3,800 soldiers to reinforce the levees, and evacuated approximately 589,000 people in Poyang.

• Anhui Province: Flooding in Anhui continues to get worse flooding streets and farmland alike and forcing people to evacuate. Officials blasted two dams in Chuzhou City to help hold floodwaters away from Three Gorges Dam. China’s central government reported evacuating 543,000 people from Anhui leading China to issue a red alert for flooding, the highest alert in China’s four tier flood alert system.

• Shanghai: Large cities in eastern China have largely avoided direct flooding. The Shanghai Flood Control Office reported that water levels of each of the rivers in Shanghai are safe and controllable.

Private Sector Impact

PPE distributors and cargo companies have experienced little or no disruption due in their supply chains due to flooding. OSAC has not received any reports of flooding affecting U.S. organizations negatively so far. Based on current forecasts, it seems unlikely that supply chains will experience further disruption. Additionally, flooding has not disrupted airport operations, although localized rain has forced the cancellation of some domestic flights.

The Yangtze River Basin continues to experience heavy rainfalls and flooding. The Three Gorges Dam and other dams along the river remain stable. Despite record-breaking flooding, supply chains have remained stable. Private- sector organizations operating in the area should continue monitoring the situation and socialize flood-related emergency protocols among local personnel as the flooding season usually does not end until mid-August.

Further Resources

For further information on security issues in China and across the region, contact OSAC’s Asia-Pacific team or consider the following resources:

SCMP: China’s Worst Floods in Decades

CNN: China's Three Gorges Dam is one of the largest ever created. Was it worth it? FEMA: Flooding Fact Sheet