compared with 46 years for those of European origin. The The origin. European of those for years 46 with compared years), 26 than less aged was population ori Ma the of half one is, (that years 26 was population ori Ma region’s the for age median the 2013 In nationally). cent per 13 and 65 Northland with (compared total the the of cent per 26 and 62 on of just for structures age account which populations*, ori Ma and European the Region’s compares 7 Fig group. ethnic by markedly differ structures age However years). 65+ aged is cent per 14.2 nationally regions; second 16 (of Zealand’s New is Region Northland the of population the 2013, in years 65+ aged cent per 16.4 With Age and Ethnic Structure Ethnic Age and oldestregional pop- u tion of tion theand popula- old Northland has Newhas Northland is relatively young. relatively is where, the popula-where, origin is origin relatively Zealand’ssecond l tion of Europeanof tion a t i o n ; Māori
b
Summary u t ,
a sustained loss at young adult ages compounds over over compounds ages adult young substitutes at loss sustained perfect not are but loss, that offset partially ages older and younger most at 15 at loss migration net of an terms in experience problem ongoing TAs its and Region Northland The births. by replaced be not will increase and will deaths as growth, natural of cohorts end the drive same will increasing the to however, due Eventually rise longevity. numbers and groups age 1946 (born cohorts boomer baby the migration, as years, 65+ at growth by driven net be will increase, 2009 and natural 2006 and 2001 between is significantly contributing TAs its of that and growth region’s the of cause major The to slowly years. grow cent), per 65+ aged those by for accounted growth the of most (+9.6 to 2031 by projected 173,490 approximately the is assumptions, case population medium per the (+23.4 2013 Under in cent). 158,700 to from 1986 years, 27 in past 127,656 the grown over has steadily but Region slowly Northland of population The origin s Economic Analysis,University of Waikato,Hamilton. Impactsof Demographic andEconomic Change Jackson, N.O. and PawarS. , (2013). Demographic A Accounting Model for NewZealand. Hamilton. RegionalDemographic Profiles 1986 References:
e - l 19 and 20 and 19 s e- -
- Figure7: Agestructure: Northland Region, Europeanand Māori (unshaded 2001 bars)and 2013 (shaded 2010 only. Increasingly, Increasingly, only. 2010
Jackson, N.O. (2014) Northland Region and itsTerritorial Authorities:Demographic Profile 1986
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Area of Usual Residence (2001, 2006 and 2013) and Ethnic Age (TotalGroup by and (FiveResponses) 2013) and Usually Sex Year AreaFor Statistics Groups) the 2006 Census and Source: New Residence of Zealand, (2001, Usual Resident Population Count Count Population Resident Notes: *Statistics New Zealand's 'multiple count' method of ethnic enumeration means that people may be counted in more than one ethnic one group in than more be counted may people that *Statistics means ofNotes: 'multipleNew ethnic method enumeration Zealand's count' - 24 years of age. Net migration gains gains migration Net age. of years 24 Age Group (years)
80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
85+
7.0
European
Males
5.0 -
Percentage at each age groupage each at Percentage - 65) move into these these into move 65) 2013.No.13.
3.0 naturalincrease
1.0 -
– oldest oldest
because the the because 2013 National InstituteNational of Demographic and Economic Analysis, Universityof Waikato,
1.0
- - 2014. MBIE
3.0 identified’, compared with 6.3, 10.1, 1.0 and 4.9 per cent level. cent at national respectively per 4.9 and ‘not 1.0 10.1, 6.3, cent with Middle compared per identified’, cent 7.4 per and 0.3 American/African, Asian, Eastern/Latin cent per 2.3 cent per Island, 2.6 Pacific just with nationally, already case the is ages than ethnic net reproductive multi less somewhat and key is Region Northland the The discussed. longevity, at aged the increasing loss to has migration rates, due population birth bars), (unshaded each declining 2001 how since show structurally also graphs
5.0 - funded project. National Institute of Demographic and disproportionately enters retirement, and the the and population retirement, declines. entrants force labour of number European ori Ma enters older large disproportionately the region’s as advantage, the The of economic an bestow to potential origin. the has population youth American/African Island, Latin relative Pacific or of those Asian, of proportion smaller a and average, greater national the double ori, Ma significantly proportion a has Region migrants, Northland The internal of losses of Bay Plenty. and the Waikato by followed and gains largest Region’s Northland for accounts typically Auckland censuses. three previous the of each at proportion 2008; in there living been had night census on Region Northland the in living two around that indicate Census 2013 from data Stayer and Mover older. Districts, slightly Kaipara and Whangarei the and average, regional the than population younger Region regions. Northland second the the in having resulted have trends (20 group age reproductive primary the reduce to time
7.0 Females - 39 years), and thus the number of children. The The children. of number the thus and years), 39
Age Group (years)
80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 The Far North District has a slightly slightly a has District North Far The
5-9 0-4
85+
7.0
Mäori
Nga Tangata Mairangi: Regional Oho Males
5.0 - thirds of those enumerated as as enumerated those of thirds -
Percentage at each age group age each at Percentage let ouain f h 16 the of population oldest
3.0
1.0 almost identical to the the to identical almost
1.0 - 2031.
3.0 New Zealand Zealand New
5.0
bars)
7.0 Females
- However numbers could range as high as 192,280 (high series) or as low as 154,830 (low series). (low 154,830 as low as or series) (high 192,280 as high as range could numbers However (2006 Newprojections case Statistics medium Zealand the with decades two next the over The slowly 1). grow (Figure to cent) projected per is population (+23.4 2013 27 in 158,700 past around the to over 1986 steadily in 127,656 but from slowly years, grown has Region Northland the of population The Natalie Jackson Natalie years. two last over the again threatened this situation 2000 increase around offset natural completely almost Net loss migration 2009 and 2006 2001 and between occurred gain migration net gain. Significant net migration of spurts by occasions on augmented deaths), and births between difference (the increase natural long been has growth Region’s Northland the of component major The Size Growth and Population Region Northland L A I R O T I R R E T S T I D N A N O S I E G I E T R I R D O N H A T L U H A T R O N Components of Change Components
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (October 2012 update) (October 2012 Sex, Age2006(base)-2031 by Projections and Population Subnational Statistics Source: New Zealand,
Number Figure1: Population of NorthlandRegion 1986 - -
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000 2001, and 2001, and 2010.
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
127,656
1986
1991
Source: Compiled from Compiled Infoshare Statistics Source: New Zealand,
Number Observed (ERP)
-1,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000 Figure2: Components of change: NorthlandRegion
-500
500
-
1996
1992 -
March Years
1992-93 S D N E R T C I H P A R G O M E D Y E K
2001
Natural Increase 1993-94
1994-95
High -
2006 1995-96 2031. by 173,490 of population a indicating base) - 1996-97 2011 andprojected to 2031
JuneYears
158,200
1997-98 2011
Medium 1998-99
Estimated Net Migration
1999-2000 2016
Northland REGION 2000-01
2001-02
2021 2002-03 Low
2003-04
2026
2004-05
2005-06
2031
2006-07 No.3 NIDEA Demographic Snapshot
154,830
192,280
173,490
2007-08 NetChange
2008-09
2009-10 Region,Northland June 2014
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13 Inside Inside this issue: Summary Structure Ethnicand Age Ageing Population Stayersand Movers Northland’s Age byChange Componentsof Flow Component byChange Componentsof (Online) 2382 ISSN (Print) 2382 ISSN [email protected] E 07838 4040 Phone: NewZealand Hamilton3240, PrivateBag 3105 University of Waikato Sciences, Faculty of &Arts Social (NIDEA) EconomicAnalysis Demographicand NationalInstitute of - mail:
- - 0403 039X
4 4 3 3 2 2
NIDEA Demographic Snapshot No. 3 P a g e 2 P a g e 3 NIDEANORTHLAND Demographic REGION Snapshot AND No. ITS 3 Northland Region, June 2014 TERRITORIALNorthland Region, AUTHORITIES June 2014 -
Components of Change by Component Flow Northland’s Movers and Stayers Using New Zealand’s first ‘demographic accounting This leaves an unaccounted for component of migration, Data from the 2013 Census indicate that almost 67 per 2013 Census show marked similarity to the main regions model’ (Jackson & Pawar 2013), the broad components of which we call the ‘residual’ component (+3,208 people cent of those enumerated as living in the Northland Region of origin of Northland’s arrivals, the single-largest Northland’s population change can be broken down into enumerated as moving to the region between 2008 and on census night 2013 (March 5th) had been living there in proportion of leavers having gone to Auckland (6.0 per their underlying flows. Figure 3 shows that between 2008 2013, but some of their 2008 origin is unknown). The 2008, almost identical to the proportion at each of the cent), followed by Waikato (2.0 per cent), Bay of Plenty and 2013, the Northland Region grew by approximately model further disaggregates each known net migration previous three censuses. At the 2013 Census, those who (0.9 per cent) and Wellington (0.7 per cent). Perhaps the 4,000 persons. Natural increase (births minus deaths) component into its respective inflows and outflows had been living elsewhere in New Zealand but not further most interesting point is that the patterns have been accounted for 4,748 persons, slightly reduced by an (14,841 internal immigrants and 14,523 internal estimated net migration loss of 748 persons. The emigrants; 7,326 PLT international immigrants and 11,600 defined in 2008 accounted for the single largest remarkably consistent over the past four censuses, the natural increase component was in turn comprised of PLT international emigrants). The overall picture is one of component of arrivals (7.8 per cent), followed by those regions of origin and destination of internal migrants 11,371 births partially offset by 6,623 deaths. From considerable ‘churn’, generated by large numbers of who had not been born in 2008 (7.0 per cent). The next remaining almost identical over time, with Auckland estimated net migration we then account for ‘known’ net leavers and arrivals relative to the net outcome. Data for largest contingent were internal migrants from the consistently the main region of both origin and migration (-3,956), comprised of net internal migration the 1996-2001 and 2001-2006 periods are available from Auckland Region (5.8 per cent), followed by those who did destination, Waikato second, and the Bay of Plenty third, (+318) and net international permanent/long term (PLT) the full Report (Jackson 2014). not state where they had been living in 2008 (4.6 per with the sole exception of the period 1991-1996 when migration (-4,274). cent), and those who had been overseas in 2008 (3.9 per Wellington fractionally out-performed the Bay of Plenty as Figure 3: Components flows—Northland Region 2008-2013 Between 2008 and 2013, cent). Internally, the next largest contributions came from the main region of origin. the Waikato Region (1.1 per cent), Bay of Northland experienced a small Figure 5: Northland’s Movers and Stayers 2008-2013 net migration loss but consider- Plenty (0.57 per cent), Canterbury able population ‘churn’, gener- (0.53 per cent) and Wellington (0.51 ated by relatively large numbers per cent). of Leavers and Arrivals Leavers: The data for those who had been living in the Northland Region in 2008 but were living elsewhere at the
The past four censuses indicate that just on two-thirds of people enumerated as living in the Northland Region at each census had been living in the Region five years previously.
Components of Change by Age Population Ageing Figure 4: Component flows by age — Northland Region 2008-2013 As elsewhere, declining birth rates, increasing longevity, Figure 4 shows that between 2008 Figure 6: Projected change (numbers) 2011-2031 by broad age and 2013, Northland experienced and—in Northland’s case—net migration loss at young notable net migration loss at 15- adult ages, are causing the population to age structurally. 160 Between 2011 and 2031, numbers at 0-14, 15-24, and 40- 19 and 20-24 years of age (a 0-14 years continuation of the situation 54 years are projected to decline, and those at 65-74, 75-84 120 15-24 years between 1996 and 2001, and 2001 and 85+ years to increase significantly (Fig 6). By 2031, 80 25-39 years and 2006). However with just one 27.7 per cent of the population of the Northland Region is minor exception, small net gains projected to be aged 65+ years, up from 16.4 per cent in 40-54 years 40 were evident at 0-9 and 30-69 2011. The Far North District has a slightly younger Percentage 55-64 years years across all three periods, and population than the regional average, and the Whangarei 65-74 years 0 at 70-89 years between 2008- and Kaipara Districts, slightly older. Figure 6 shows that the 75-84 years 2013, indicating overall the net trends for Northland and its TAs are not that different to -40 85+ years arrival parents, children, and those for total New Zealand, which also experiences minor Far North Whangarei Kaipara Northland Total New increasingly those of retirement decline at 15-24 and 40-54 years. The Far North and District District District REGION Zealand age. All age groups saw both Whangarei Districts can expect to have more elderly than Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (October 2012 update) internal and international (PLT) children by 2021, around five years earlier than for total arrivals and departures. New Zealand, while this will occur for the Kaipara District a little earlier, around 2016.