Age and Ethnic Structure NIDEA Demographic Snapshot No. 3 Northland Region, June 2014 With 16.4 per cent aged 65+ years in 2013, the population graphs also show how each population has aged of the Northland Region is New Zealand’s second-oldest structurally since 2001 (unshaded bars), due to the (of 16 regions; nationally 14.2 per cent is aged 65+ years). declining birth rates, increasing longevity, and net However age structures differ markedly by ethnic group. migration loss at the key reproductive ages already Fig 7 compares the age structures of the Northland discussed. The Northland Region is somewhat less multi- Region’s European and Ma ori populations*, which account ethnic than is the case nationally, with just 2.6 per cent for just on 62 and 26 per cent of the total (compared with Pacific Island, 2.3 per cent Asian, 0.3 per cent Middle NORTHLAND REGION AND ITS TERRITORIAL 65 and 13 per cent nationally). In 2013 the median age for Eastern/Latin American/African, and 7.4 per cent ‘not AUTHORITIES - KEY DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS the region’s Ma ori population was 26 years (that is, one- identified’, compared with 6.3, 10.1, 1.0 and 4.9 per cent half of the Ma ori population was aged less than 26 years), respectively at national level. Natalie Jackson Inside this issue: compared with 46 years for those of European origin. The Components of 2 Figure 7: Age structure: Northland Region, European and Māori 2001 (unshaded bars) and 2013 (shaded bars) Northland Region Population Size and Growth Change by European Mäori Component Flow Northland has New 85+ 85+ The population of the Northland Region has grown slowly but steadily over the past 27 80-84 80-84 Components of 2 Zealand’s second- 75-79 75-79 years, from 127,656 in 1986 to around 158,700 in 2013 (+23.4 per cent) (Figure 1). The oldest regional pop- 70-74 70-74 Change by Age 65-69 65-69 population is projected to grow slowly over the next two decades with the Statistics New ulation; but, as else- 60-64 60-64 55-59 55-59 Zealand medium case projections (2006-base) indicating a population of 173,490 by 2031. where, the popula- 50-54 50-54 Northland’s Movers 3 45-49 45-49 However numbers could range as high as 192,280 (high series) or as low as 154,830 (low Males 40-44 40-44 Males and Stayers Females tion of European Females 35-39 35-39 series). Age Group(years) Age origin is relatively 30-34 (years)GroupAge 30-34 25-29 25-29 old and the popula- 20-24 20-24 Figure 1: Population of Northland Region 1986-2011 and projected to 2031 Population Ageing 3 15-19 15-19 tion of Māori origin 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 Observed (ERP) High Medium Low is relatively young. 0-4 0-4 200,000 192,280 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 Age and Ethnic 4 180,000 Percentage at each age group Percentage at each age group 158,200 173,490 Structure 160,000 Source: Statistics New Zealand, Area of Usual Residence (2001, 2006 and 2013) and Ethnic Group (Total Responses) by Age (Five Year Groups) and Sex For the Census Usually 154,830 140,000 Resident Population Count 127,656 Notes: *Statistics New Zealand's 'multiple count' method of ethnic enumeration means that people may be counted in more than one ethnic group 120,000 Summary 4 100,000 The population of Northland Region has grown time to reduce the primary reproductive age group Number 80,000 slowly but steadily over the past 27 years, from (20-39 years), and thus the number of children. The 60,000 127,656 in 1986 to 158,700 in 2013 (+23.4 per trends have resulted in the Northland Region 40,000 cent). Under the medium case assumptions, the having the second-oldest population of the 16 20,000 population is projected to grow slowly to regions. The Far North District has a slightly 0 approximately 173,490 by 2031 (+9.6 per cent), younger population than the regional average, and 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (October 2012 update) most of the growth accounted for by those aged 65+ the Whangarei and Kaipara Districts, slightly older. years. Mover and Stayer data from 2013 Census indicate The major cause of the region’s growth and that of that around two-thirds of those enumerated as Components of Change its TAs is natural increase, net migration, living in the Northland Region on census night had National Institute of Summary The major component of the Northland Region’s growth has long been natural increase (the Demographic and contributing significantly between 2001 and 2006 been living there in 2008; almost identical to the difference between births and deaths), augmented on occasions by spurts of net migration Economic Analysis and 2009-2010 only. Increasingly, natural increase proportion at each of the previous three censuses. (NIDEA) gain. Significant net will be driven by growth at 65+ years, as the baby Auckland typically accounts for Northland Region’s Figure 2: Components of change: Northland Region migration gain Faculty of Arts & Social boomer cohorts (born 1946-65) move into these largest gains and losses of internal migrants, Natural Increase Estimated Net Migration Net Change occurred between Sciences, age groups and numbers rise due to increasing followed by Waikato and the Bay of Plenty. 2,500 2001 and 2006 and University of Waikato longevity. Eventually however, the same cohorts 2,000 The Northland Region has a significantly greater 2009-2010. Private Bag 3105 will drive the end of natural growth, as deaths will Hamilton 3240, proportion Ma ori, double the national average, and 1,500 Net migration loss New Zealand increase and will not be replaced by births. a smaller proportion of those of Pacific Island, almost completely 1,000 The Northland Region and its TAs experience an Asian, or Latin American/African origin. The offset natural Phone: ongoing problem in terms of net migration loss at relative youth of the region’s large Ma ori 500 07 838 4040 increase around 15-19 and 20-24 years of age. Net migration gains population has the potential to bestow an economic Number 2000-2001, and - E-mail: at most younger and older ages partially offset that advantage, as the older European population this situation -500 [email protected] loss, but are not perfect substitutes because the disproportionately enters retirement, and the threatened again March Years June Years sustained loss at young adult ages compounds over number of labour force entrants declines. -1,000 ISSN 2382-039X over the last two (Print) years. 1992 ISSN 2382-0403 2001-02 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 References: Jackson, N.O. (2014) Northland Region and its Territorial Authorities: Demographic Profile 1986-2031. New Zealand 1992-93 (Online) Regional Demographic Profiles 1986-2013. No. 13. National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, University of Waikato, 1999-2000 Hamilton. Northland REGION Jackson, N.O. and Pawar , S. (2013). A Demographic Accounting Model for New Zealand. Nga Tangata Oho Mairangi: Regional Source: Compiled from Statistics New Zealand, Infoshare Impacts of Demographic and Economic Change – 2013-2014. MBIE-funded project . National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, University of Waikato, Hamilton. NIDEA Demographic Snapshot No. 3 P a g e 2 P a g e 3 NIDEANORTHLAND Demographic REGION Snapshot AND No. ITS 3 Northland Region, June 2014 TERRITORIALNorthland Region, AUTHORITIES June 2014 - Components of Change by Component Flow Northland’s Movers and Stayers Using New Zealand’s first ‘demographic accounting This leaves an unaccounted for component of migration, Data from the 2013 Census indicate that almost 67 per 2013 Census show marked similarity to the main regions model’ (Jackson & Pawar 2013), the broad components of which we call the ‘residual’ component (+3,208 people cent of those enumerated as living in the Northland Region of origin of Northland’s arrivals, the single-largest Northland’s population change can be broken down into enumerated as moving to the region between 2008 and on census night 2013 (March 5th) had been living there in proportion of leavers having gone to Auckland (6.0 per their underlying flows. Figure 3 shows that between 2008 2013, but some of their 2008 origin is unknown). The 2008, almost identical to the proportion at each of the cent), followed by Waikato (2.0 per cent), Bay of Plenty and 2013, the Northland Region grew by approximately model further disaggregates each known net migration previous three censuses. At the 2013 Census, those who (0.9 per cent) and Wellington (0.7 per cent). Perhaps the 4,000 persons. Natural increase (births minus deaths) component into its respective inflows and outflows had been living elsewhere in New Zealand but not further most interesting point is that the patterns have been accounted for 4,748 persons, slightly reduced by an (14,841 internal immigrants and 14,523 internal estimated net migration loss of 748 persons. The emigrants; 7,326 PLT international immigrants and 11,600 defined in 2008 accounted for the single largest remarkably consistent over the past four censuses, the natural increase component was in turn comprised of PLT international emigrants).