Kyrgyz Republic Program Evaluation Evolving Transition to a Market Economy
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Country Assistance Kyrgyz Republic Program Evaluation Evolving Transition to a Market Economy Independent Evaluation Country Assistance Program Evaluation August 2012 Kyrgyz Republic Country Assistance Program Evaluation: Evolving Transition to a Market Economy Reference Number: CAP: KGZ 2012-09 Independent Evaluation Department, CE-27 Director General V. Thomas, Independent Evaluation Department (IED) Director W. Kolkma, Independent Evaluation Division 1, IED Team leader S. Hutaserani, Lead Evaluation Specialist, IED Team members L. Ocenar, Evaluation Officer, IED G. Castillo, Senior Evaluation Assistant, IED Preparatory work in 2011: David Dole, Team Leader, now in Central and West Asia Department Henrike Feig, Principal Evaluation Specialist, IED Toshiyuki Yokota, Senior Evaluation Specialist, IED Rajesh Vasudevan, Evaluation Specialist, IED Raikhan Sabirova, Evaluation Specialist, IED Alvin Morales, Evaluation Officer, IED Barbara Palacios, Senior Evaluation Officer (retired), IED Irene Garganta, Senior Evaluation Assistant, IED The guidelines formally adopted by the Independent Evaluation Department on avoiding conflict of interest in its independent evaluations were observed in the preparation of this report. To the knowledge of the management of Independent Evaluation Department, there were no conflicts of interest of the persons preparing, reviewing, or approving this report. In preparing any evaluation report, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Independent Evaluation Department does not intend to make any judgment as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Notes: (i) The fiscal year (FY) of the Government ends on 31 December. (ii) In this report, “$” refers to US dollars Abbreviations ADB – Asian Development Bank ADF – Asian Development Fund ANR – agriculture and natural resources CAPE – country assistance program evaluation CAREC – Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation CBA – cross-border agreement CDF – Comprehensive Development Framework CDS – Country Development Strategy CIS – Commonwealth of Independent States COBP – country operations business plan COS – country operational strategy CPS – country partnership strategy CSP – country strategy and program DFID – Department for International Development DMF – design and monitoring framework EA – executing agency EBRD – European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ECE – early childhood education EIRR – economic internal rate of return EMIS – education management information system FSU – former Soviet Union GDP – gross domestic product IED – Independent Evaluation Department IFC – International Finance Corporation IMF – International Monetary Fund IsDB – Islamic Development Bank JCSS – Joint Country Support Strategy JEA – Joint Economic Assessment JFPR – Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction JICA – Japan International Cooperation Agency KfW – Kreditanstalt fuer Wiederaufbau (German Development Bank) MDG – Millennium Development Goal MOH – Ministry of Health MOTC – Ministry of Transport and Communication MTBF – medium-term budget framework NPRS – National Poverty Reduction Strategy O&M – operation and maintenance OAI – Office of Anti-Corruption and Integrity PCR – project/program completion report PIP – public investment program PIU – project implementation unit PMU – project management unit PPP – public–private partnership PRC – People’s Republic of China PSD – private sector development PSM – public sector management SAADP – Southern Area Agriculture Development Project SME – small and medium enterprises SOE – state-owned enterprise TA – technical assistance UN – United Nations UNDP – United Nations Development Programme WSS – water supply and sanitation Contents Acknowledgments v Preface vii Executive Summary ix Map Chapter 1: Introduction 1 A. Objectives 1 B. Scope and Coverage 1 C. Organization of the Report 1 Chapter 2: Country Context, Government Strategies, and ADB Support 3 A. Analysis of the Country Context and Major Constraints 3 B. Government Development Strategies and Plans in Relation to the Country Context 10 C. ADB’s Country Strategies and Support Programs 11 D. Roles of and Coordination Among Key Development Partners 12 Chapter 3: Methodology 14 A. Evaluation Framework 14 B. Evaluation Approach: Key Evaluation Questions 14 C. Evaluation Method and Limitations 15 Chapter 4: Performance of ADB Support in Achieving the Country Strategy Objectives 16 A. CAPE’s Overall Coverage (1994–2010) 16 B. First Country Strategy Period (1996–2003) 18 C. Second Country Strategy Period (2004–2006) 20 D. Third Country Strategy Period (2007–2010) 20 E. Three Periods Combined (1994–2010) 21 Chapter 5: Performance of ADB Support under the Six Evaluation Criteria 22 A. Strategic Positioning 22 B. Program Relevance 27 C. Efficiency 29 D. Effectiveness 32 E. Sustainability 35 F. Development Impacts 39 G. ADB Support in Other Sectors 43 H. ADB and Borrower Performance 44 Chapter 6: Overall Findings 48 A. Performance of ADB Support under the Six Evaluation Criteria (Integrated Sector Assessment) 48 B. Performance of ADB Support in Achieving the Country Strategy Objectives 49 C. Macroeconomic Outlook and Challenges 52 Chapter 7: Lessons and Recommendations 53 A. Lessons 53 B. Recommendations 54 APPENDIXES 1 Key Economic and Social Indicators 57 2 Monitoring the Achievements of the Millennium Development Goals 60 3 Priorities of Government Development Strategies and Plans by 62 Sector/Area 4 Major Thrusts/Priorities of ADB’s Country Strategies and Assistance 65 Programs 5 Cumulative External Assistance by Development Partners 72 6 CAPE Evaluation Framework 82 7 Approved Loans, Grants, and Advisory Technical Assistance by Sector 83 8 Results Chains Linking Contributions of ADB’s Sector Outcomes to the 106 Country’s Achievement of Development Impacts with ADB’s Country Strategy Objectives 9 Assessment of Portfolio Implementation 117 10 Summary of Assessment by Sector and Overall (1994–2010) 123 Acknowledgments This country assistance program evaluation (CAPE) report was prepared in 2012 by a team led by Suganya Hutaserani, Lead Evaluation Specialist, Division 1, Independent Evaluation Department (IED), under the overall guidance of IED Director General, Vinod Thomas and IED Division 1 Director, Walter Kolkma. Team members included Lucille Ocenar and Glennie Castillo. The CAPE report integrates the findings of sector assessments on agriculture and natural resources, finance and private sector development, public sector management, transport, education and health. These were conducted by the following IED staff in 2011: Alvin Morales, Henrike Feig, Rajesh Vasudevan, Toshiyuki Yokota, and Raikhan Sabirova, respectively. A team of international and national consultants assisted in preparing sector background papers and preliminary sector assessments, namely, Mark Birukov, Robert Boumphrey, Leah Castro, Peter Darjes, Azamat Dikambaev, Bahodir Ganiev, Thomas Jones III, Maksat Kabonbaev, Rashel Pardo-Dimaano, Isabe Paula Patron, Brahm Prakash, Raya Osmonolieva, Lindsay Saunders, and Asyl Undeland. Steve Tabor helped prepare a preliminary integrated sector assessment under the six evaluation criteria. We acknowledge the work of former CAPE Team Leader David Dole, who wrote the evaluation approach paper and coordinated the work of most of the consultants and IED staff, but who transferred midway to another department in Asian Development Bank (ADB). We also acknowledge the work of other former team members who helped David: Barbara Palacios and Irene Garganta. Cheolghee Kim, Raikhan Sabirova, and Nils Fostvedt peer reviewed the report from within IED. We gratefully acknowledge the support by the Central and West Asia Regional Department for this evaluation, and the comments received on a draft of this report, provided by relevant departments and offices of the ADB as well as by the Kyrgyz Republic’s Ministry of Finance, Prime Minister’s Office, Ministry of Economy and Antimonopoly Policy, and Ministry of Transport and Communications. IED retains full responsibility for this report. Preface The Kyrgyz Republic proclaimed its independence from the former Soviet Union in 1991 and became a member of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in 1994. Soon after independence, the government adopted a strategy to transform its command economy into a well-functioning market economy. There has been progress overall but it has lagged notably in some important areas. This country assistance program evaluation assesses ADB’s country strategies and programs to support the Kyrgyz Republic from 1994 until 2010, which is the end of the last country strategy. The evaluation rates ADB’s overall performance successful as ADB’s three country strategies during the evaluation period (1994–2010) identified the right objectives consistent with ADB’s corporate strategies and with the government’s priorities in addressing the country’s major constraints. However, resources were spread too thinly across many sectors without sufficient intersector linkages to reinforce the achievement of cross-sectoral outcomes and impacts. ADB’s country programs have contributed positively to addressing the country’s three major constraints and natural disasters: (i) improving infrastructure and connectivity through long-term support in regional road networks and trade facilitation, which contributed to increased economic growth, regional trade, and employment and income among roadside households; however, attention to road maintenance was inadequate;