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Tallinna-Tartu-Riia Ja Tallinna-Peterburi Rongiliikluse Avamise Tasuvusanalüüs

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Tallinna-Tartu-Riia Ja Tallinna-Peterburi Rongiliikluse Avamise Tasuvusanalüüs OÜ Positium LBS, Õpetaja 9, 51003 Tartu, Eesti Reg. nr. 10883762, Swedbank 221020601776 Tel +372 734 1144 [email protected] www.positium.ee Tallinna-Tartu-Riia ja Tallinna-Peterburi rongiliikluse avamise tasuvusanalüüs Tellija: Majandus- ja Kommunikatsiooniministeerium Koostaja: OÜ Positium LBS Erki Saluveer, Rein Riisalu, Marek Rannala, Liis Murov Tartu 2012 Lühikokkuvõte „Tallinna-Tartu-Riia ja Tallinna-Peterburi rongiliikluse avamise tasuvusanalüüs” koostati Majandus- ja Kommunikatsiooniministeeriumi tellimusel. 2012. aasta alguses oli Eestil ainult üks rahvusvaheline rongiliin – Tallinna-Moskva, kuid lähiregioonis on veel kaks teist olulist keskust – Riia ja Peterburi, millesuunaline nõudlus võiks olla piisav rongiliinide avamiseks Eesti suuremate keskustega. Töö käigus hinnati reisijate loenduste, mobiilpositsioneerimise, piiristatistika ja teiste allikate abil olemasolevat reisinõudlust linnade vahel, prognoositi nõudluse muutust aastani 2030 ja koostati nõudlusele vastav rongide sõiduplaan. Seejuures arvestati nii infrastruktuuri tänast seisukorda kui ka kavandatavate investeeringute mõju kiiruste suurendamiseks infrastruktuuril, võimalikke veeremi mudeleid ja rongkoosseisude alternatiive ning nendest sõltuvaid sõiduaegu. Tasuvusanalüüsi perioodiks oli 2015-2030, diskontomääraks 5% ning kõik summad esitati 2011. aasta püsihindades. Tasuvusanalüüsiga jõuti järgmistele järeldusele: 1. „Uue ja moodsa“ veeremi kasutamine on läbivalt parema tasuvusega kui „vana ja äraproovitud“ veeremi kasutamine. „Uue ja moodsa“ veeremi soetushinnaks arvestati 10,5 miljonit € koosseis, milles 220 istekohta reisijatele ja restoranvagun; 2. Tallinna-Tartu-Riia rongiliin, millel päevas 3 väljumist Tallinnast ja 3 Riiast, ning peatused Tallinnas, Tapal, Tartus ja Riias, tingimusel, et kogu raudtee infrastruktuur on rekonstrueeritud tasemele, mis lubab reisirongidel sõita kuni 120 km/h Eestis ja Lätis ning rongideks on „uut ja moodsat“ tüüpi veerem, oli mittetasuv nii finantsiliselt kui ka sotsiaal- majanduslikult (FNPV=-26,6 miljonit €, ENPV=-10,2 miljonit €). 16 aasta jooksul sõidaks sellel liinil kokku 4,7 miljonit reisijat. Liin oleks finantsiliselt tasuv siis, kui reisijate arv igal aastal või piletihind oleks vähemalt 42% võrra suurem või veokulud ilma rongide amortisatsioonita oleksid vähemalt 40% võrra madalamad (st <3,59 €/rong-km) kui käesolevas töös arvestatud. Liin ei oleks finantsiliselt tasuv ka siis, kui operaator saaks kõik rongid tasuta. Juhul kui riik soovib liini avada, tuleks arvestada dotatsiooniga 2,4 miljonit € aastas (2011. aasta hindades) eeldusel, et operaator peab liini 15 aastast tasuvusaega mõistlikuks. Selline dotatsioon kataks ka operaatori investeeringud veeremi soetamiseks. 3. Tallinna-Peterburi rongiliin, millel päevas 2 väljumist Tallinnast ja 2 Peterburist ning peatused Tallinnas, Tapal, Jõhvis, Narvas, Ivangorodis, Kingiseppas, Gatšinas ja Peterburis, tingimusel, et kogu raudtee infrastruktuur on rekonstrueeritud tasemele, mis lubab reisirongidel sõita kuni 120 km/h Eestis ja Venemaal ning rongideks on „uut ja moodsat“ tüüpi veerem, oli finantsiliselt ja sotsiaal-majanduslikult tasuv (FNPV=8,6 2 miljonit €, FIRR=8,2%, ENPV=42,9 miljonit €, EIRR=19,2%). 16 aasta jooksul sõidaks sellel liinil kokku 3,6 miljonit reisijat. Tasuv oli sama liin ka „vana ja äraproovitud“ veeremiga. Liin oleks „uue ja moodsa“ veeremiga finantsiliselt tasuv veel ka siis, kui reisijate arv igal aastal või piletihind oleks kuni 11% võrra väiksem või veokulud ilma rongide amortisatsioonita oleksid mitte rohkem kui 20% võrra kõrgemad (st mitte rohkem kui 7,81 €/rong-km) kui käesolevas töös arvestatud või üks rongkoosseis maksaks mitte rohkem kui 14,4 miljonit €. Tasuvusanalüüsi koostajad soovitavad täiendavalt panustada Tallinna-Narva raudtee seisukorra parandamisse, et see võimaldaks reisirongidel maksimaalses ulatuses sõita kiirusel 120 km/h (st likvideerida tuleb vahepealsed madalama kiiruspiiranguga lõigud jaamade läbimisel), otsida võimalusi piiriületuse kiirendamiseks ning julgustada eraettevõtjaid avama rongiliiklust Tallinna ja Peterburi vahel. Riia suunal tuleks kaaluda koostööd Läti ja Vene poolega ning täiendavalt uurida Riia-Tartu-Tapa-Peterburi rongikoridori potentsiaali ning võimalust teenindada Tallinna-Tartu-Riia rongiliiniga ka siseriiklikku nõudlust (eelkõige Tallinna ja Tartu vahel). Konkurentsivõimeliste Tallinna-Tartu-Riia ja ümberistumisega Riia-Tartu-Tapa-Peterburi rongiliinide avamine eeldab raudteeinfrastruktuuri rekonstrueerimist ja reisirongide piirkiiruste tõstmist vähemalt 120 km/h-ni kogu Tapa-Riia lõigul (vajadus rekonstrueerimistööde järele on eelkõige Läti raudteelõikudel). 3 Sisukord Lühikokkuvõte .................................................................................................................... 2 1. Tasuvusanalüüsi taust ja metoodika ................................................................................ 8 1.1. Uuringu eesmärk ...................................................................................................... 8 1.2. Uuringu ülesehitus .................................................................................................... 9 1.3. Uuringu läbiviimine ................................................................................................. 10 1.3.1. Andmete allikad ............................................................................................... 10 1.3.2. Uuringu koostajad ............................................................................................ 11 2. Sotsiaal-majanduslik taust ............................................................................................ 13 2.1. Uuringu ala ............................................................................................................ 13 2.2. Rahvastik ............................................................................................................... 14 2.2.1. Rahvaarv riigiti ja demograafilised trendid .......................................................... 14 2.2.2. Rahvaarv ja selle muutus piirkondades ning rahvastiku tihedus .......................... 15 2.2.3. Piirkonna suurimad linnad ................................................................................ 17 2.3. Majanduslikud näitajad ........................................................................................... 19 2.4. Turism ................................................................................................................... 21 2.4.1. Eestist väljaminev turism................................................................................... 24 2.4.2. Eestisse sissetulev turism ................................................................................. 29 2.4.3. Summaarsed turismi statistikud ........................................................................ 34 2.5. Olemasolevad transpordiühendused ....................................................................... 35 2.5.1. Ühistranspordi ühendused ............................................................................... 35 2.5.2. Rongiühendus ................................................................................................. 35 2.5.3. Bussiühendus .................................................................................................. 36 2.5.4. Lennuühendus ................................................................................................. 37 2.6. Piiristatistika ........................................................................................................... 37 2.6.1. Piiriületused Iklas .............................................................................................. 38 2.6.2. Piiriületused Valgas .......................................................................................... 40 2.6.3. Piiriületused Narvas .......................................................................................... 41 4 2.7. Vahekokkuvõte peamistest sotsiaal-majanduslikest trendidest ................................. 43 3. Benchmark-liinid ........................................................................................................... 45 4. Raudtee infrastruktuur uuringu alal ................................................................................ 51 4.1. Lähteandmed ja üldiseloomustus ............................................................................ 51 4.2. Piirkiirused ............................................................................................................. 51 4.3. Läbilaskevõime ...................................................................................................... 52 4.4. Tehniline seisukord ................................................................................................. 53 5. Raudteeveeremi valikud reisijateveoks elektrifitseerimata kaugliinidel .............................. 59 5.1. Vedurid .................................................................................................................. 62 5.2. MU-d ..................................................................................................................... 63 5.3. Reisi- ja restoranvagunid ........................................................................................ 66 5.4. Rongkoosseisude maksumus ................................................................................. 68 6. Rongide sõiduajad Tallinna-Tartu-Riia ja Tallinna-Peterburi liinidel .................................. 71 6.1. Lähteandmed ........................................................................................................
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