The Challenge of Grand Strategy: the Great Powers and the Broken Balance Between the World Wars Edited by Jeffrey W

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Cambridge University Press 978-1-107-02252-2 - The Challenge of Grand Strategy: The Great Powers and the Broken Balance between the World Wars Edited by Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, Norrin M. Ripsman and Steven E. Lobell Index More information

Index

ABC. See American-British Conversations rethinking logic of, 333–334 Abe Nobuyuki, 263–265 as strategy, by Britain, 17–18, 188–189, Acheson, Dean, 194, 215–216 310–311 Act to Expedite the Strengthening of Arab Spring, 5 National Defense, 210 Arita Hachiro,¯ 232–236, 265 alignment consistency, system effects and, armaments, League of Nations and 199–200 national expenditure, freeze on, alignment inconsistencies, 246–248, 110–111 276–278 private manufacture of, 109–110 from Anti-Comintern Pact to 1939, Armaments Yearbook (League of Nations), 251–253 111 Anti-Fascist alliance, 253–263 arms control consequences of, 248–250 League of Nations, 93 explanation of, 250–251 terminology of, 118 Japanese-Soviet Neutrality Pact, arms limitation agreements 263–276 Britain and Germany, 167–168, 170 Nazi-Soviet Pact, 253–263 Britain and Japan, 168–169, 170 America First Committee 1940, 210 Atlantic Charter, 209 American-British Conversations (ABC), Austrian Crisis 1933, 179 208, 211 Austro-Hungarian empire, 4 Anglo-Boer War 1898–1902, 3 Axis plot, 196 Anglo-Franco-Soviet alliance, 249, 253–263 balance of power theory Anglo-German Naval Agreement 1935, arguments challenging, 27–29 152, 167–168, 170, 189, 302 Britain, grand strategy 1930s, 148 Anglo-Japanese Alliance 1902, 168 balance of threat theory Anti-Comintern Pact 1936, 251–253 arguments challenging, 27–29 “back door” to World War II, 196 Britain, grand strategy 1930s, 148 Berlin and Moscow violation of, 233 Baldwin, Stanley, 10, 91 enemies of Germany, 232 Locarno, support of, 77–78 Japanese-German military cooperation, Te n Ye a r R ul e, 158 231, 234–235 Balfour, Lord, 75 Roosevelt and, 212 Balfour Declaration 1917, 4 anti-fascist alliance, 253–256 bandwagoning, 226 alliance bargaining, mid-1939, 256–258 jackal, 227 Britain, grand alliance and, 258 Japan and, 227–228 Germany and, 259–260 waves-of-the-future, 227 Molotov and, 260–263 Barbieri, Katherine, 121 Stalin and, 260–263 Barthou, Louis, 52 appeasement Benes,ˆ Edvard, 179 Blair, Tony, 6 Bernanke, Benjamin, 7 Bush, George W., 6 Berthelot, Philippe, 48–49

337

© in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-107-02252-2 - The Challenge of Grand Strategy: The Great Powers and the Broken Balance between the World Wars Edited by Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, Norrin M. Ripsman and Steven E. Lobell Index More information

338 Index

Blair, Tony, appeasement and, 6 remilitarization of Rhineland 1936, Bloc national 66–69 German treaty compliance and, 46–54 Rhineland demilitarization pledge, mood of France in 1919 and, 43–44 81–85 Blum, Leon, 295 security conceptions, post World War I, Bosnia-Herzegovina, ethno-nationalist civil 45 cars, 4 state, balance and components of power Bourgeois, Leon,´ 107 and, 153–158, 169–170 Brawley, Mark, 157 trade concessions and inducements, to Brest-Litovsk treaty, 177 rival states, 152–153 Bretton Woods institutions, 6 British Army, 163, 165–167 Briand, Aristide Brooks, Stephen, 156, 197 Franco-British security alliance, Bush, George H. W., appeasement and, 48–51 5 Geneva Protocol, 114 Bush, George W., appeasement and, 6 Locarno Treaty, 61, 77, 78, 81 Butterfield, Herbert, 40 Britain Byman, Daniel, Anglo-Franco-Soviet alliance, 258 appeasement as strategy, 17–18, Cadogan, Alexander, 283 188–189, 310–311 Cannes Conference 1922, 51 arms limitation agreements, 152, Carnegie Endowment for International 167–169, 170 Peace (CEIP), 96 balance of power and, 153–158, Carr,E.H.,1, 281 169–170 Cartel des gauches Chamberlain’s threat identification, election of 1924, 53–54 161–163 security policy, Geneva protocol and, communist regime in Germany and, 54–57 186–187 Case Weiss, 257 D.R.C., three reports, grand strategy Causes of War (Van Evera), 20 and, 158 Cecil, Robert, 43, 100–101 economy, as power component, 167 CEIP. See Carnegie Endowment for German rearmament 1933–36, response International Peace to, 176–188 Chamberlain, Austen, 60, 91 grand strategy 1930s, 16–17, 188–192 French effort to suppress German power high security competition, 150, and, 74–75 156–157, 159 Locarno, 77, 81 inaction against Germany, mid- to late Rhineland crisis 1936, 90–91 1930s, 173–176 Rhineland demilitarization pledge and, League of Nations, grand strategy and, 82–83 93 Chamberlain, Joseph, 3 low security competition, 150, 157–158, Chamberlain, Neville, 9–18 159 alternative rearmament program, military plans in 1935, Japan and, 163–167 185–186 D.R.C.’s rearmament program, New Standard, Royal Navy and, 160 161–163 power, balance and components of German power, rise in, 179 1930s, 153–158, 169–170 German rearmament, 183 preventive war against Germany, lessons learned 1920s and 1930s, 26 173–176, 180–188, 189–192 power, balance and components of public pacifism, post World War I, 184, 1930s, 147–153 191 Soviet Union foreign policies and, rearmament program, Chamberlain’s 279–280, 283 alternative, 163–167 Charter of the United Nations 1945, rearmament program, D.R.C. reports 118 1934–35, 158–161 Chiang Kai-shek, China, 263–267

Index 339

China refuting, 309–318 economic interdependence and, 146 Rhineland crisis, 66 Japanese proposal to Hull and, 219 Soviet Union, foreign policies, interwar Japanese-Soviet Neutrality pact and, years, 280–284 263–267 Soviet Union foreign policies, new military power, 5 approaches vs., 287–299 Christensen, Thomas, 154, 201 United States entry into World War II, Churchill, Winston S., 18, 91 193–195 Britain’s balance of power, 147 Cooper, Duff, 90 political debate in U.S. 2008, 16 Corfu, Italian seizure of, League of Rhineland crisis, 66 Nations and, 103 Roosevelt, World War II and, 194, Coulondre, Robert, 295 208–209 Covenant, League of Nations, 60, 99–100 Ruhr War, origins of, 75–76 Croatia, ethno-nationalist civil cars, 4 Soviet Union foreign policies and, Curzon, Lord, 70–71 279–280 Czechoslovakia Ciano, Galeazzo, 212 alliance to France 1924, 47 CID. See Committee of Imperial Defence preventive war, Britain and France and, Clemenceau, Georges, 9–46 175 coercion Bloc National, German treaty D’Abernon, Lord, 85 compliance and, 46–47 Daladier, Eduard, 9 French national security policy and, Dallek, Robert, 194 37–41, 45–46, 63–64 Dawes Plan, 6 Poincare´ and, 51–52 Defense Requirements Sub-Committee Cold War, 4 (D.R.C.), 158–161 disarmament, League of Nations and, DEI. See Dutch East Indies 106 Demilitarized Zones, Committee of inﬂuence on scholarship on interwar Imperial Defence, 82 period, 19–21 deterrence theory League of Nations, 97–98 Bloc National, German treaty collective security compliance and, 47 League of Nations, 102, 103 French national security policy and, Soviet Union and, 284, 300–305 37–41, 45–46, 63–64 Comintern, 282, 294, 300 Deutscher, Isaac, 281 Committee of Imperial Defence (CID), Dimitrov, Georgi, 289 82, 180 disarmament conditional constraints, power shifts and, conferences, Germany and Britain and, 197–199 177, 187–188 Conference for the Supervision of the League of Nations and, 103–106, 118 International Trade in Arms and Dodge Plan, 6 Ammunition and in Implements of D.R.C. See Defense Requirements War, 109 Sub-Committee constraints Druze, civil war 1975–90, 4 conditional, anticipated power shifts Dutch East Indies (DEI), Japan and, 137, and, 197–199 139–141, 234 systemic, 197 conventional wisdom economic interdependence British balance of power and, 147–148, China and, 146 171–172 Germany, grand strategy 1925–1941 entry into World War II, Roosevelt and, and, 120–123, 145–146 193–195 Germany, World War II and, start of, grand strategy, interwar period, 12–13, 128–135 26, 308 Japan, grand strategy 1925–1941 and, League of Nations, role of, 317–318 120–122, 145–146

340 Index

economic interdependence (cont.) cartel security policy, Geneva protocol Japan, Paciﬁc War and, start of, and, 54–57 135–145 deterrence, coercion and enmeshment, economic interdependence, war and 37–41, 63–64 liberal theory and, 123–128 German power and, 44–46 realist theory and, 123–128 inaction against Germany, mid- to late trade expectations theory, 121–123, 1930s, 173–176 126–128 internationalism, 43–44 economic nationalism, 5 League of Nations, grand strategy and, Eden, Anthony 93 Rhineland crisis 1936, 86, 89–90 Locarno Accords, enmeshment of Suez Crisis, 5 Germany and, 57–63 Embrick, Stanley D., 201 policy making, political and cultural enmeshment context of, 41–46 Briand and, 51 power over Germany 1920s, 70–74 French security policy and, 37–41, remilitarization of Rhineland 1936, 58–59, 63–64 66–67 of Germany, Locarno Accords and, Fromageot, Henri, 58 57–63 “Fundamentals of Our National Policy” environment, international (Japan), 140 conditional constraints, power shifts and, 197–199 Gaddis, John Lewis, 14 permissive, 23–25, 70–71, 150, The Gathering Storm (Churchill), 18, 197–200 147 restrictive, 70–71, 150, 197–200 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade system effects, alignment consistency (GATT), 6 and, 199–200 General Assembly, United Nations, 118 European Recovery Program, 6 Geneva Protocol, 113–114 European security, Rhineland and, 70–74 Cartel des gauches security policy and, 54–57 Federal Reserve, 7 George, Alexander, 39–40 FFCC. See Foreign Funds Control Germany Committee aborted anti-Fascist alliance, 253–263 Finland, Soviet attack of 1939, 295–296 alliance bargaining 1939, 259–260 Foch, Ferdinand, 42, 52 from Anti-Comintern Pact to 1939, Foreign Funds Control Committee 251–253 (FFCC), 215 Britain, arms limitation agreements and, foreign policy 167–168, 170 American, early stages of Cold War, 149 economic interdependence, grand ideologies and, 284–286 strategy 1925–1941 and, 120–123 Japan, Tripartite Pact and, 242 French power and 1920s, misperception literature, 286–287 inaction, by Britain and France, foreign policy executive (FPE), Britain, 173–176 153–156 living space (Lebensraum), 129, 130 high security competition, 150, navy, 151 156–157 Nazi-Soviet pact, 253–263 low security competition, 150, 157–158 power of, post World War I, French Four Power Declaration, 256–257 grand strategy and, 37–39 Four Power Treaty, 168 raw material dependence, 132–133 Fourteen Points speech, January 1918, 107 rearmament 1933–36, British response Four-Year Plan of 1936, 131 to, 176–188 FPE. See foreign policy executive reparations, 6 France Rhineland. See Rhineland Bloc national and German treaty slow reaction to, 309–312 compliance, 46–54 Soviet Union and, 251–253, 259–260

Index 341

treaty compliance, Bloc national and, insistence on “Open Door” in China, 46–54 194 World War II and, start of, economic Nomura talks and, 213, 217, 221 interdependence and, 128–135 Tog¯ o¯ proposals and, 219 Gerow, Leonard T., 218 Tripartite Pact, reaction to, 212 Gilpin, Robert, 199, 246 Hull-Nomura talks, 213, 217, 221 Giscard d’Estaing, Valery,´ 6–7 Goring,¨ Hermann, 214, 259 Ickes, Harold, 215 Gorodetski, Gabriel, 288 ideological distance, foreign policy and, grand strategy, deﬁnition of, 14–16 284–286, 306–307 grand strategy, interwar period ideologies, 334 conventional wisdom, 308 foreign policy and, 284–286 refuting conventional wisdom, 309–318 Soviet Union, foreign policies and, Great Britain. See Britain 279–280, 282–283, 287–299 Great Depression, 3 IGHQ. See Imperial General Headquarters British military spending and, 158 IMF. See International Monetary Fund British recovery and, 149, 162 Imperial Conference 1940 effect on German and Japanese Imperial General Headquarters (IGHQ), behavior, 122 212 trade restrictions, Japan and, 138 Imperial Headquarters-Cabinet Liaison Grew, Joseph, 211 Conference, 235 Group of Eight (G-8) forum, 6–7 Indochina, Japanese occupation, U.S. Guilty Men (Cato), 18, 148, 169, 171 embargo and, 214–216 Inoue Shigeyoshi, 229 Hailsham, Viscount, 179 Inter-allied war debts, 6 Hara Yoshimichi, 143 Inter-Ministerial Committee for the Ruhr, Harris, James, 287–288, 290–291 73 Hartmann, Frederick, 276 international environment Haslam, Jonathan, 247, 295 conditional constraints, power shifts Haushofer, Karl, 129 and, 197–199 Hay-Paunceforte Treaty, 17 permissive, 23–25, 70–71, 150, Heinrichs, Waldo, 216 197–200 Herriot, Edouard, 53–54, 59, 60–61 restrictive, 23–25, 70–71, 150, 197–200 high security competition, 156–157, system effects, alignment consistency 159 and, 199–200 Hiranuma Kiichiro,¯ 232 international history, approaches to, Hitler, Adolf, 2, 91–92 21–25 economic interdependence of Germany, International Monetary Fund (IMF), 6 startofWorldWarIIand,128–135 international politics, study of export of goods, problem of, 131–132 Soviet foreign policies interwar years, leader-centrism, World War II and, relevance of, 299–305 9–11 international relations theory, 32–36 Rhineland crisis 1936, 9–11, 88 implications for, 332–333 Ribbentrop, Matsouka talks, 213–214 international history and, 21–25 Russia, destruction of, 129 internationalism, France, post World War Simon, John and, 177–179 I, 43–44 war-council meeting 1937, 133–134 interwar period Hoare, Samuel, 104 approaches to understanding, 26–31 Hobbesian fear, 40 contemporary period and, 4–5 Hoffmann, Stanley, 7–8 deﬁning, 13–14 Holy Alliance at the Treaty of Aachen evidence for new approaches to 1818, 50 understanding, 31–32 hostility, presumption of, ideologies and, lessons from, 5–7 285–286 perceptions of threat in, 326–331 Hull, Cordell political science and, 7–9

342 Index

interwar period (cont.) Japanese Imperial Navy, 151 time horizons in, 322–325 Japanese-Soviet Neutrality Pact, 263–267 World War I and, 9–12 alignment inconsistencies, consequences Iran, poisonous gas use violations, 111 of, 248–250 Iraq bargaining with Soviets, 267–271 poisonous gas use violations, 111 reason for deal, 271–273 violence among Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds reason for endurance through war, 2006–2007, 4 273–276 Israel, Palestinians and, origin of conflict, Jervis, Robert, 22, 199, 246–247 4 Italy Kennan, George, 21, 283 alliances 1939, 259 Kenya, 5 poisonous gas use violations, 111 Kershaw, Ian, 12 Tripartite Pact, 243–244 Kissinger, Henry, 249 Knox, Frank, 207, 215 jackal bandwagoning Konoe Fumimaro, 9 definition of, 227 efforts for settlement to avoid Pacific Japan and, 227–228 War, 195 Japan, 249 expansion into Southeast Asia, 212 from Anti-Comintern Pact to 1939, new Cabinet 1940, 267 251–253 Pacific war, start of, 142 Britain, arms limitation agreements and, southern advance, into Indochina and 168–169, 170 Dutch East Indies, 214 Britain military plans 1935 and, Tripartite Pact, 225, 229, 236–237, 241, 185–186 244–245 “Draft Policy for Negotiating a Military Kosovo, ethno-nationalist civil cars, 4 Alliance,” 238, 242 Kreps, Sarah, 156 Dutch East Indies and, 140–141 Kuomintang (KMT) regime, U.S. economic interdependence, grand recognition of, 210 strategy 1925–1941 and, 120–122 Kurds, violence in Iraq 2006–2007, 4 economic interdependence, Pacific War Kurusu Saburo,¯ 212 and, start of, 135–145 expansion in Southeast Asia, risk of war Lange, Christian, 108 with Britain and U.S., 216 Laroche, Jules, 58 “Foreign Policy Outline for the Empire,” Laue, Theodore Van, 281 242 Lausanne treaty, 4 freeze of assets, by Roosevelt leader-centrism, 9–11 administration, 194 League of Nations Indochina occupation, U.S. embargo Covenant, 99–100 and, 214–216 disarmament and, 103–118 jackal bandwagoning and, 227–228 Geneva Protocol and, 55–56, 93 lessons learned 1920s and 1930s, 26 grand strategy and, 99–103 Liaison Conferences, 137, 144–145 in historiography, 93–99 Manchuria takeover and, 138 mandate over Palestine to Britain, 4 motives of, interwar period, 313–315 role of, 317–318 negotiations with U.S. prior to World Wilson and, 43 War II, 218–221 League of Nations Union (LNU), 101 Soviet Union and, 230–231, 249, Lebanon, civil war 1975–90, 4 251–253 Lend-Lease Act, 209 Tripartite Pact, 216, 224–226, 228–231, Lenin, Vladimir 236–243 ideological distance and, 289, 293, 300 U.S. relations 1920–1941, 136 leader-centrism and, 9 U.S. sanctions against, Roosevelt Lensen, George, 247 administration, 210 lessons, interwar period, 5–7, 26 Japanese Imperial Army, 151 dangers from applying, 16–21

Index 343

deception by leaders, 223 Tripartite Pact, 225, 229–231, 236–243, difﬁculty of grand strategic adjustment, 244–245 223 May, Ernest, 247 from World War I, American people McCain, John, 16 and, 201–202 McMahon-Hussein correspondence Levy, Jack, 39–40 1914–16, 4 Leygues, Georges, 47–48 Mearsheimer, John, 95, 124–125, 281 liberalism Mein Kampf (Hitler), 129 economic interdependence, Military Staff, Charter of the United international relations and, Nations, 118 120–123 Miller, Edward, 215 economic interdependence, war and, Millerand, Alexandre, 43, 46–47 123–128 misperception theories, foreign policy and, The Lights that Failed (Steiner), 99 286–287, 307 Lippmann, Walter, 149 Mitteleuropa, 130 Litvinov, Maxim, 256 Molotov, Vyacheslav M. Soviet position of neutrality, post Pearl aborted anti-Fascist alliance and Harbor, 275–276 Nazi-Soviet Pact, 260–263 Soviet refusal to ally with Britain 1940, Japanese-Soviet Neutrality Pact, 214, 298 231, 267–271 Soviet trilateral pact proposal, Morgenthau, Hans, 94, 215 257–258 Morgenthau, Henry, Jr., 205–206 Lloyd George, David, 9–50, 51, 52 Mueller, John, LNU. See League of Nations Union Munich Conference, 252, 308, 309–310 Lobell, Steven, Mussolini, Benito, 9–259 Locarno Accords, enmeshment of Germany and, 57–63 Nagano Osami, 139–140 Locarno Treaty Narizny, Kevin origins of, Ruhr War and, 74–81 Nasser, Gamal Abel, 5 Rhineland demilitarization pledge, Nazi Party, 2 British reaction to, 81–85 economic policy, “Reformers,” 130 London Naval Agreements 1930, 152 Simon, John and, 177–179 London Naval Conference 1930, 169 Nazi-Soviet Nonaggression Pact 1939, London Naval Treaty, 164–165, 168 34–35 low security competition, 157–158, 159 alliance bargaining mid-1939, 256–258 Luftwaffe, 19, 150–151, 189 Britain, grand alliance and, 258 Lukacs, John, Germany, alliance bargaining and, 259–260 MacDonald, Ramsay, 54 inconsistency of, 248, 253–256 MAGIC intercepts, 213–214, 219, Molotov and, 260–263 220 Soviet views of collective security and, Maginot, Andre,´ 52 291, 300–305 Maginot Line, 63, 151 Stalin and, 260–263 Maisky, Ivan, 257 neoclassical realism, Manchukuo, U.S. recognition of, 210 Neuilly treaty, 4 Manchuria, takeover by Japan, 138, Neutrality Acts, 209 139–140, 252 neutrality laws, U.S. and, 201–202 mandates system, League of Nations, New Plan of 1934, 130–131 101–102 Nine Power Treaty, 168 Maronite Christians, civil war 1975–90, 4 Niou, Emerson, Marshall, George C., 206 Nomura Kichiasaburo,¯ 213, 275 Marshall Plan, 6 Northedge, F. S., 95–96 Massigli, Rene,´ 58 Matsuoka Yosuke, 213–214 Obama, Barack, 16 Soviet Union and, 267–271 Oikawa Koshiro,¯ 139, 238, 274

344 Index

Oneal, John, 121 Protocol for the Pacific Settlement of Operation Barbarossa, 19 International Disputes, 113. See also Orde, C.W., 185 Geneva Protocol Ordeshook, Peter, Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use in Oshima¯ Hiroshi, 214 War of Asphyxiating, Poisonous or Ott, Eugen, 217, 242 Other Gases, 111 Ottoman empire, 4 outcome bias, 18–19, 277 RAF. See Royal Air Force Rapallo Treaty, 294 Painleve,´ Paul, 61 realist theory Palestinians, Israel and, origin of conflict, economic interdependence, 4 international relations and, 120–123 Papen, Franz von, 10 economic interdependence, war and, Paris Peace conference 1919, 11 123–128 Peace Ballot 1935, 101 Soviet Union foreign policies and, Pearl Harbor attack 279–282, 305–306 Roosevelt and, 221 rearmament Soviet Union and Japan, neutrality of Britain 1930s, 161–167 after, 247–248 German 1933–36, British response to, Pedersen, Susan, 98 176–188 Permanent Court of International Justice, Red Army, communist ideology, 100 exportation of, 294–297 permissive international environment, Regular Expeditionary Force, 161 23–25, 70–71, 150 restrictive international environment, conditional constraints, power shifts 23–25, 70–71, 150, 197–200 and, 197–199 conditional constraints, power shifts system effects, alignment consistency and, 197–199 and, 199–200 system effects, alignment consistency Petain,´ Philippe, 42 and, 199–200 Plan Dog memo, 208, 211 Rhineland Poincare,´ Raymond, 51–53, 73 crisis of 1936, continuity in British poison gas, League of Nations and, 111 policy and, 85–91 Poland demilitarization pledge, British doubts alliance to France 1921, 47 on, 81–85 Soviet invasion of 1939, 295 demilitarized zone, 66 political economy approach, interwar European security and, 70–74 period and, 26–27 France, post World War I and, 44 political science, interwar period and, 7–9 preventive war, Britain and France and, Pollack, Kenneth, 175 Pons, Silvio, 287, 301 remilitarization of, in 1936, 65–70, Posen, Barry, 14, 20 310 Potemkin, Vladimir, 289 Ruhr War, origins of Locarno and, power transitions 74–81 preventive war and, 28–29, 190 Rhineland Security Pact, 57–63 power transitions, preventive war and, Ribbentrop, Joachim von, 221, 252, 268, 28–29 269–270 predatory buckpassing, 228 Roberts, Geoffrey, 304–305 Preparatory Commission, League of Roosevelt, Franklin D., 9 Nations, 114–117 “backdoor to war” hypothesis, World preventive war, 189–192 War II and, 195–196 Britain and, 173–176, 180–188 calculated provocation, in Pacific, France and, 173–176 210–222 international relations theory and, 69 deception, American people and, transition in power and, 28–29 223 process tracing, 287 grand strategy 1938–1941, 222–223

Index 345

inadvertent war hypothesis, World War Smoot-Hawley Tariff, 6 II and, 193–195 Smuts, Jan, 43 threat assessments, great power politics Snyder, Glenn, 277 and 1940–1941, 202–207 Somalia, 5 un-neutral neutrality in Atlantic, The Sources of Military Doctrine (Posen), 207–210 20 World War II, recent conventional South African War 1898–1902, 3 wisdom on entry into, 193–195 Soviet Union Rosecrance, Richard, 125 aborted anti-Fascist alliance, Germany Royal Air Force (RAF), 19, 163–167 and, 253–263 Royal Navy, rearmament program, alliance policies, ideological distance 163–167 and, 293–294 Ruhr War from Anti-Comintern Pact to 1939, invasion of 1923, 73–74 251–253 origins of Locarno and, 74–81 Britain, refusal to ally with 1940, Russett, Bruce, 121 230–231 Russia. See Soviet Union collapse of, 4 collective security, 284, 300–305 Saint-Germain treaty, 4 communist ideology, exportation of, Saito Yoshie, 230 294–297, 305 San Remo Convention 1920, 4 domestic events, foreign policies and, Schacht, Hjalmar, 130–131 283–284 Schroeder, Paul, 249 foreign policies, interwar years, Schweller, Randall, conventional wisdoms, 280–284 security foreign policies, new approaches vs. Britain, conceptions of, post World War conventional wisdom, 287–299 I, 45 ideological beliefs, foreign policies and, Cartel des gauches, Geneva protocol 279–280, 282–283, 287–299 and, 54–57 Japan and, 230–231, 249, 251–253 collective, League of Nations and, 102, motives of, interwar period, 315 103 presumptions of enmity, meaning of, collective, Soviet Union and, 284, 299–305 300–305 realist theory, foreign policies and, European, Rhineland and, 70–74 279–282, 305–306 high, competition, 150, 156–157 study of grand strategy, new approaches League of Nations and, 99–103 to, 284–287 low, competition, 150, 157–158 as threat and opportunity to Hitler, 129 Security Council, Charter of the United U.S and, 250 Nations, 118 Spears, E. L., Rhineland demilitarization September 2008 ﬁnancial panic, 3 pledge and, 82–83 Seydoux, Jacques, 48–49, 50–51, 52 Stahlmer, Heinrich, 242 Shiites Stalin, Josef, 9 civil war 1975–90, 4 anti-fascist alliance and Nazi-Soviet violence in Iraq 2006–2007, 4 Pact, 254–256, 260–263 Showa¯ Emperor, 142 domestic power, policies and, 283–284, Signal Intelligence Services (SIS), 214 299 Simon, John, 177–179, 183, 184 ideology of, 289–290 Sino-Japanese War lessons learned 1920s and 1930s, 26 Japan, expansion into Southeast Asia Stalin and the Inevitable War 1936–1941 and, 212 (Pons), 287 Roosevelt, radio address and, 212–213 Stark, Harold R., 207 U.S. Japanese trade and, 140 Steiner, Zara, 99 U.S. sanctions and, 210 Stimson, Henry L., 215, 217–218 SIS. See Signal Intelligence Services Stoler, Mark, 217 Sixty Minutes (television), 7 Stresemann, Gustav, 68, 77, 78–81

346 Index

structural determinism, 11–12 Roosevelt and, 217 Suez Crisis 1956, 5 signing of, 212 Sugiyama Gen, 212 “Ten Points,” Sunnis Tsukada Ko, 143 civil war 1975–90, 4 Twenty Years’ Crisis, 1 violence in Iraq 2006–2007, 4 Suzuki Teiichi, 142–143 Ulam, Adam, 280–281 systemic constraints, U.S. domestic politics Uldricks, Teddy, 288, 292 and, 197 United Nations, 119 systemic constructivist theory, 299–300, United States 306 domestic politics, systemic constraints and, 200–202 Tatekawa Yoshitsugo, 268 involvement in World War II, 316–317 Tay l o r , A . J. P. , 11–12 Japanese relations 1920–1941, 136 “Ten Points,” 219 national defense, pre World War II, Ten Year Rule, 158 200–201 Thompson, John A., 207 national security state 1940, 201 Thomsen, Hans, 221 neutrality laws 1935–1937, 201–202 threat, perceptions of, interwar period, permissive international environment, 326–331 198–199 Chamberlain and, 161–163 public opinion, intervention in European Roosevelt administration and, war 1939, 206–207 202–207 public opinion, World War I, 201–202 time horizons Soviet Union and, 250 in international politics, 318–320, strategy of hemispheric defense, 201 334–335 threat assessments, great power politics in interwar period, 322–325 and 1940–1941, 202–207 varying, implications of, 320–322 U.S. Army Plan Red-Orange, 201 Toj¯ o¯ Hideki, 9–10, 195, 218 U.S. Federal Reserve, 7 Tog¯ o¯ Shigenori U.S. Navy Plan Orange, 201 calculated provocation in Paciﬁc, U.S. Smoot-Hawley tariffs, 130 218–221 USSR. See Soviet Union expansion into Southeast Asia, 212, 218–221 Van Evera, Stephen, 20, 155 Soviet Union and, 267 Vansittart, Robert United States proposals and, 143 German rearmament 1933–1936, Toyo da Te i j i ro,¯ 216 178–179 Trachtenberg, Marc, 216 Rhineland crisis, 86–87 trade Versailles Treaty 1919, 2 causes-of-war and, competing theories, German challenges to, 177 123–128 imbalance of power in Europe and, dependency on, war and, 121–123 11–12 trade expectations theory interwar period, starting of, 13–14 deductive logic of, 127–128 United States, failure to ratify, 1 economic interdependence, war and, Victory Program, Army-Navy Joint Board, 121–128 207–208, 211 Treaty of Mutual Assistance, 111–113 Treaty of Mutual Guarantee, 62, 77 Walt, Stephen, 295 Trianon treaty, 4 Walters, Frank, 95–96 Tripartite Pact 1940, 217 Waltz, Kenneth “back door” to European war, 196, economic interdependence, war and, 222–223 124 Italy and, 243–244 international environments, war and, Japan and, 216, 224–226, 228–231, 197 236–243 outbreak of World War II and,

Index 347

permissive international security Wolfers, Arnold, 74, 277 environments, 246 World Bank, 6 restrictive environments, 198 World Disarmament Conference, 103 war World War I causes of, competing theories, 123–128 American people, reaction to, 201–202 economic interdependence and, interwar period, grand strategies of, 123–128 9–12 preventative strategy, 173–176 World War II trade and, 121–123 antagonists, motives of, 312–316 Washington Naval Conference, 168–169 “backdoor to war” hypothesis, 195–196 Washington Naval Treaty, 153, 164–165, conventional wisdom on entry into, 168 193–195 waves-of-the-future bandwagoning, Germany, and start of, economic 227 interdependence and, 128–135 Weinberg, Gerhard, inadvertent war hypothesis, 193–195 Welles, Sumner, 211 U.S. involvement in, 316–317 Wieszacker, Ernst von, 259 Wilson, Woodrow, 9 Yamada Zengo, 229 Fourteen Points speech January 1918, Yamamoto Isoroku, 229 107 Yonai Mitsumasa, 225, 229, 232–236 international relations, 42–43 Yoshida Zengo, 236, 237–238 League of Nations, 100 Young Plan, 6 World War I, 201 Wohlforth, William, 155, 197 Zhdandov, Andrei, 289