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Bay Area Economics Draft Report – Study Of

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Bay Area Economics Draft Report – Study Of DRAFT REPORT Study of Alternatives to Housing For the Funding of Brooklyn Bridge Park Operations Presented by: BAE Urban Economics Presented to: Brooklyn Bridge Park Committee on Alternatives to Housing (CAH) February 22, 2011 Table of Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................... i Introduction and Approach ........................................................................................... 1 Committee on Alternatives to Housing (CAH) Process ............................................................ 1 Report Purpose and Organization ............................................................................................. 2 Topics Outside the Scope of the CAH and this Report ............................................................. 3 Report Methodology ................................................................................................................. 4 Limiting Conditions .................................................................................................................. 4 Park Overview and the Current Plan ............................................................................ 5 The Park Setting and Plan ......................................................................................................... 5 Park Governance ....................................................................................................................... 6 The Current Financing Plan ...................................................................................................... 6 Comparison with Other Park Plans ............................................................................ 18 Identification of Alternatives and the Framework for Analysis ................................ 20 Public Listening Sessions and Testimony ............................................................................... 20 Potential Categories for Funding Alternatives ........................................................................ 20 Evaluative Framework: Threshold and Evaluative Parameters ............................................... 21 Alternatives Excluded After Consideration ............................................................................ 22 Development of Detailed Alternatives for Analysis ............................................................... 23 Analysis of Alternatives .............................................................................................. 24 Park Improvement District (PID) ............................................................................................ 25 Fee-Based Recreational Facilities ........................................................................................... 30 Event Facilities ........................................................................................................................ 35 Concessions (all types, including food and fine dining) ......................................................... 40 Commercial Real Estate Development ................................................................................... 46 Sponsorships ........................................................................................................................... 49 Fundraising/Grants .................................................................................................................. 51 Leveraging Opportunities Related to the Expected Disposition of the Watchtower Properties53 Increased Parking Revenues.................................................................................................... 59 Next Steps .................................................................................................................... 62 The CAH Process and Public Comment ................................................................................. 62 Appendix A: Sources .................................................................................................. 63 DRAFT REPORT – 2/22/2011 i Appendix B: History of Park Development/Timeline ................................................. 66 Appendix C: Demographic, Economic and Market Overview .................................. 70 Demographic Trends ............................................................................................................... 70 Employment Base ................................................................................................................... 74 Real Estate Market Overview ................................................................................................. 76 Appendix D: Best Practice Case Studies ................................................................... 82 Bryant Park, New York City ................................................................................................... 82 Discovery Green, Houston ...................................................................................................... 87 Civic Park, Los Angeles .......................................................................................................... 90 Riverfront Park, Cincinnati ..................................................................................................... 92 Balboa Park, San Diego .......................................................................................................... 94 Orange County Great Park, Irvine ........................................................................................... 96 South Bank, Brisbane, Australia ............................................................................................. 99 Appendix E: Public Testimony ................................................................................. 101 Appendix F: Alternatives Background Data Tables ................................................ 103 DRAFT REPORT – 2/22/2011 ii List of Figures and Tables Figure 1: Brooklyn Bridge Park .................................................................................................... 5 Figure 2: Brooklyn Bridge Park Construction Phasing Plan ...................................................... 8 Table 1: Capital Budget and Phasing Plan .................................................................................. 9 Table 2: Stabilized Park Operating Expenditures ..................................................................... 11 Table 3: Brooklyn Bridge Park Development Program ............................................................ 12 Figure 3: Brooklyn Bridge Park Development Stes .................................................................. 13 Table 4: Stabilized Ongoing Park Revenues ............................................................................. 14 Table 5: Recurring and One time Revenues from John Street and Pier 6 Sites.................. 15 Table 6: New BBP Housing Units vs. Projected Demand, 2016-2020 .................................. 16 Figure 4: Conceptual Brooklyn Bridge Park PID Boundaries .................................................. 26 Table 7: Proposed PID Properties by Type, Assessed Value................................................. 27 Table 8: Assessment Rates for PID Revenue Scenarios ........................................................ 28 Table 9: Revenue Potential for Planned Recreational Uses ................................................... 32 Table 10: Indoor Recreational Center Financial Feasibility Summary ................................... 33 Table 11: Outdoors and Special Events Revenues, 2011-2017............................................. 37 Table 12: Indoor Event Center Financial Feasibility Summary ............................................... 38 Table 16: Estimated Office and Retail Revenues ..................................................................... 47 Table 18: On-Site Metered Parking Revenues .......................................................................... 59 Table 19: Net Revenues from Indoor Parking Garage ............................................................. 60 Table C-1: Population and Household Trends, 2000-2015 .................................................... 71 Table C-2: Household Income Distribution, 2000-2015 .......................................................... 72 Table C-3: Housing Tenure by Age of Householder, 2010 .................................................... 73 Table C-4: Household Projections in Brooklyn and New York City (in 000s), 2010-2030 .. 73 Figure C-1: Total Employment, 2000-2009 ................................................................................ 74 Figure C-2: Unemployment Rate in Brooklyn and New York City, 2000-2010 ..................... 75 Table C-5: Projected Total Employment in Brooklyn and New York City (in thousands) ... 75 Table C-6: Selected Condominium Projects Currently Selling In or Near Brooklyn Community Districts 2 and 6 ................................................................................................ 77 Figure C-3: Net Office Space Absorption in Downtown Brooklyn, 2010 ............................... 79 Table C-7: Rents per Square Foot in Selected Brooklyn Commercial Corridors ................. 80 Table C-8: Retail Leakage in Community Districts 2 and 6, 2010 .......................................... 81 Figure D-1: Operating Income by Source, Bryant Park, FY 2008 and 2009 ........................ 83 Figure D-2: Operating Income by Source, Millennium Park, 2009 ........................................
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