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Use of S2S Forecasts in Applications

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Use of S2S Forecasts in Applications Use of S2S forecasts in applications Andrew W. Robertson ECMWF Workshop on sub-seasonal predictability, Nov 2–4, 2015 Outline • Types of user and application, and entry points for obtaining S2S forecasts - developed and developing country users • Tailored forecast information and verification • Question of most user-relevant formats for forecasts on different time scales (weather-S2S-seasonal) Types of user and application • Hazard early warning - enhancing preparedness to high-impact weather events • Management decisions in weather-sensitive operations • Large range of users from sophisticated to developing country Hydrologic Forecasts of spring flood volumes for Hydropower Short range forecasts, up to 10 days ahead ▪Based on a meteorological forecast ▪Most valuable at high flows (flood warnings), and for short term reservoir planning Long range forecasts, 1 to 6 months ahead ▪Climatological forecast based on historical precipitation and temperature records ▪Most valuable for water resources planning and operation of reservoirs Kean Foster 4 ModelDecision (WEAP), (b) Climate-Agriculture Support Model (CAM), and (Toolsc) Knowledge Sharing for Portal Climateand Maproom (KSPM). Office of Environment, Energy and Climate Change Complementing these technology-based tools is the Seasonal Climate Forecast and Extension Advisory (CLEA), BRIEFER an advisory bulletin that will be issued by municipal agricultural extension offices to farmers. Decision Support Tools for Climate ResilientResilient Agriculture in the Agriculture in the Philippines Bicol Region Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Model Vulnerability to Climate Risks WEAP is a computer-based software tool that provides users with an integrated approach for water resources The Bicol Region, located in the southeastern part of Luzon, Philippines, is vulnerable to climate-related planning and management in a river basin. As a customized tool, WEAP-Bicol uses climate and hydrological data hazards such as typhoons, floods, and dry spells. Such (e.g., rainfall amount, river water flow and irrigation needs) and calculates water supply available to users in the vulnerability translates to large agricultural losses The Bicol Agri-Water Project - a USAID grant implemented by the University of the affecting the economic livelihoods Bicol’s population, Quinali A and Buhi-Barit watersheds. The tool can also be applied at various scales including river basin, sub- 39% of whom work in the agriculture and fisheries watershed, and farm level. Philippines Once in place, Los WEAP Banos-Bicol Foundation, will enable Inc. decision (UPLBFI), makers in suchpartnership as water with level the IRI, and sectors.1 Losses arise from direct damages to crops and irrigation facilities and reduced water availability managers, irrigators associations,the or Philippinesmunicipal agriculture Dept of officers Agriculture to make, and informed Met Service decisions (PAGASA on how best) is workingto to for farmers. For instance, from 2007-2011, Bicol manage and allocate water resourcesdevelop, especially test, and on apply occasions agro-climate where there tools are competingto support demands decisions for water for managing, sustained PhP 5.36 billion (US $122 million) worth of damage in rice farming due to typhoons, floods, and ensuring that water will be availableclimate to farms risks in low at -thelying farm areas. level and water resources at the watershed level. droughts.2 Flooded rice paddies in Nabua, Camarines Sur after a typhoon The predicted occurrence of El Niño in 2014 is expected to result in reduced rainfall and drought conditions, further stressing the region. With long-term climate change Schematic diagram of WEAP Model impacts posing uncertainty in the region’s agriculture sector, there is a need for ‘agro-climate tools’ to improve 3 local capacities to anticipate and respond to climate risks to support Bicol’s long-term food security. INPUT STAKEHOLDER The Bicol Agri-Water Project DECISION The Bicol Agri-Water Project (BAWP), a USAID grant implemented by the University of the Philippines Los Banos Foundation, Inc. (UPLBFI), in partnership with the International Research Institute for ClimateData and Society (IRI) at Columbia University in US, the Department of Agriculture Regional Field Office 5(Streamflow, (DA RFO5), and Rainfall, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) isagriculture working to develop,demand, test, and Release water apply agro-climate tools to support decisions for managing climate risks at thereservoir farm level elevations, and for managing for irrigation water resources at the watershed level. Adopting a user-driven approach, BAWP is customizing state-of-the- etc) art, user-friendly decision support tools for the Bicol region, with watersheds of Buhi-Barit in Camarines Sur and Quinale A in Albay serving as pilot areas. The decision support tools include: (a) Water Evaluation and Planning Conserve water 1CountryStat Philippines, Regional Profile: Bicol, Jun. 2014 <http://countrystat.bas.gov.ph/?cont=16&r=5>.Options/Scenarios for fisheries (Build X or Build Y ; 2Philippine Institute for Development Studies, “Impacts of Natural Disasters on Agriculture,Wetter Season, Climate Water Balance Model Food Security, and Natural Resources and Environment in the Philippines,” Discussion Paper Series No. 2012-36, Oct. Control and 2012, Jun. 2014 <http://dirp4.pids.gov.ph/ris/dps/pidsdps1236.pdf>. Change) Calculates the flow of water in and out of a system (e.g. watershed) to support water management and allocation decisions manage flooding 3Agro-Climate Tools for a New Climate-Smart Agriculture, CGIAR Program on Climate Change, Food Security, and Agriculture, 2011, Jun. 2014 <http://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/assets/docs/iri_agro -climate_tools_brief-web.pdf>. 1 PI: A. Ines Functionally, WEAP-Bicol is linked with the CAMDT and the KSPM, acting both as a source and user oF data/information from these two other decision support tools. Its interface with the CAMDT can help users, For example, understand how simulated water availability will affect crop management options. Meanwhile, climate and hydrological data from KSPM are inputs For the models that WEAP-Bicol will generate, which in turn will be made available to users through the KSPM website. Climate-Ag Modeling Decision Tools (CAMDT) The CAMDT is a computer desktop tool designed to guide decision-makers on adopting appropriate crop and water management practices that can improve crop yields given a climatic condition. It is a suite oF tools, starting with IRI’s Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and PAGASA’s seasonal climate forecasts that Feed climate data to an analytical tool called, Decision Support System For Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSATv4.5) crop models, to extract risk profiles of crops, specifically rice, planted at diFFerent time windows. Decision-makers can use the risk profile to analyze the specific variety to plant and farming logistics and inputs to use. Such information can 2 Important Entry Points with Users Intermediate S2S Users NMHSs, Local/ Province/National Govt, Ag Ext, NGOs, WMO Comms, Journalists … Indirect Link with End Users via Intermediaries Scope defined by a set of hazards... Urban Flood: Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from flood inundation by intense rain, out-of-bank river flow, coastal wave & surge overtopping and from consequent urban landslides. © www.thamai.net Disruptive Winter Weather: HIWeather Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from snow, ice and fog to transport, power & communications infrastructure. © Tommy Hindley/ Professional Sport Wildfire: Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from wildfires &their smoke. [email protected] Heat & Air Pollution in Megacities: Reducing mortality, morbidity and disruption from extreme heat & pollution in the megacities of the developing and newly developed world. © www.energydigital.com Extreme Local Wind: WMO Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from OMM wind & wind blown debris in tropical & extra-tropical cyclones, © Adrian Pearman/Caters downslope windstorms & convective storms, including tornadoes. Red Cross/IRI Example of using forecasts for Humanitarian aid Early Action Source: M. Daly Figure"4."Example"Schematic"for"ReadyZSetZGo!"framing.$(Source:"M.Daly)" ) 20" Maprooms for Humanitarian Aid developed in a partnership between IRI and IFRC Source: IRI Using information across time-scales more specific information Long Lead Short more time to reduce risk Lead Climate change Photo: NASA rising risks, trends, more surprises Seasonal forecasts level of risk in coming monthsWeather forecasts Decades, end of century impending hazard next 3-6 months 10 days or less Source: Erin Coughlan Forecast access Press, TV, Radio Online Regional Climate Outlook Fora SEASONAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 2013 ISSUED ON MAI 24 2013 40 30 40 20 20 10 0 20 20 40 -10 40 40 Graphics40 vs data -20 Green color indicates normal to above normal more likely -30 A ABOVE NORMAL N NORMAL to run sectoralB BELOW NORMAL models -40 CLIMATOLOGY -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 5 8 Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) in Africa Improve Enhance Promote Use Availability Access Engage users: • Build capacity of • Install IRI Data • Raise awareness NMHS Library • Build capacity • Quality Control •Develop online of users to station data tools for data understand and • Combine station analysis and use climate info data
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