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PAGASA ENSO ALERT and WARNING SYSTEM Revised 21 October 2019 PAGASA ENSO ALERT and WARNING SYSTEM Rationale

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PAGASA ENSO ALERT and WARNING SYSTEM Revised 21 October 2019 PAGASA ENSO ALERT and WARNING SYSTEM Rationale PAGASA ENSO ALERT AND WARNING SYSTEM revised 21 October 2019 PAGASA ENSO ALERT AND WARNING SYSTEM Rationale: • As prescribed in the Memorandum Order No. 38, s. of 2019 on Reactivating and Reconstituting the El Nino Task Force (issued August 13, 2019), the PAGASA ENSO Alert and Warning System is hereby adopted to provide guidance in the preparation of sectoral contingency plans which will serve as basis for actions before, during and after El Niño. The ENSO Alert and Warning System will serve as input of PAGASA to Chapter 4: Preparedness Actions on the formulation of the Guide for El Nino Contingency Planning. • The ENSO Alert and Warning System also aims to increase understanding among concerned national and local government agencies, the private sector, academia, research and general public; and to heighten awareness in the user community when El Niño/La Niña event exists or might develop so preparedness measures should be initiated. PAGASA ENSO ALERT AND WARNING SYSTEM Objective: To serve as guidance in the formulation and implementation of El Niño/La Niña Contingency Plan. PAGASA ENSO ALERT AND WARNING SYSTEM Definition of Terms: • Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) – defined as the departure from the average sea surface temperature (SST) • Niño 3.4 region – refers to the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP); 5N- 5S, 120-170W • Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)* – defined as the 3-month running-mean average SST departures in the Nino 3.4 region based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses [i.e., Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v4 (Huang et al. 2015, J. Climate)]; based on a threshold of +/- 0.5C for the 3-month running mean SSTAs in the Nino 3.4 region centered on 30-year base periods updated every 5 years PAGASA ENSO ALERT AND WARNING SYSTEM Definition of Terms: • ENSO-Neutral - characterized by ONI value(s) between <0.5°C and > - 0.5°C • El Niño - characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5 °C • El Nino Condition* - A one-month positive SSTA of 0.5°C or greater is observed in the Niño-3.4 region and an expectation that the 3-month ONI threshold of 0.5°C or greater will be met (i.e, 3 overlapping 3- months; example: JFM, FMA, MAM). • El Niño Episode/Event - a minimum of 5 consecutive 3 overlapping months with ONI values of 0.5°C or greater is observed (i.e., 5 overlapping 3- months; example: JFM,FMA,MAM,AMJ,MJJ) * adopted from Climate Prediction Center (CPC)/ NOAA USA’s working definition PAGASA ENSO ALERT AND WARNING SYSTEM Definition of Terms: • La Niña - characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to −0.5 °C • La Niña condition - A one-month SSTA of -0.5°C or less is observed in the Niño-3.4 region and an expectation that the 3-month ONI threshold of -0.5°C or less will be met (i.e, 3 overlapping 3-months; example: JFM,FMA,MAM) • La Niña Episode/Event – a minimum of 5 consecutive 3 overlapping months with ONI values of -0.5°C or lower is observed (i.e., 5 overlapping 3- months; example: JFM,FMA,MAM,AMJ,MJJ) * adopted from Climate Prediction Center (CPC)/ NOAA USA’s working definition PAGASA ENSO ALERT AND WARNING SYSTEM Types of Alert During an El Niño • El Niño Watch - Issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño within the next six months and probability is 55% or more. • El Niño Alert – an upgrade from El Niño Watch; issued when ONI of +0.5oC or greater is forecasted to persist in the next 2 months or more and El Niño is likely/probable by 70% or more** (to satisfy 5 ONI). • El Niño Advisory - an upgrade from El Niño Alert. Issued whenever El Niño is currently on-going and the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold is expected to persist during the forecast period. • Final El Niño Advisory - issued whenever an ONI value is between <0.5°C to > -0.5°C or Neutral. PAGASA ENSO ALERT AND WARNING SYSTEM Types of Alert During a La Niña • La Niña Watch - issued when climate favours development of La Niña conditions within the next six months and probability is 55% or more. • La Niña Alert – an upgrade from La Niña Watch; issued when ONI of - 0.5oC or less is forecasted to persist in the next 2 months or more and La Niña is likely/probable by 70% or more** (to satisfy 5 ONI). • La Niña Advisory - an upgrade from La Niña Alert. Issued whenever a La Niña is currently on-going and the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold is expected to persist during the forecast period. • Final La Niña Advisory - issued whenever an ONI value is between <0.5°C to > -0.5°C or Neutral PAGASA ENSO ALERT AND WARNING SYSTEM EL NIPO WARNING SYSTEM AND RECOMMENDED ACTION/RESPONSE: Observed Sea Surface Observed Oceanic Niño Forecast from CPC NOAA and other Recommended Temperature anomaly Index (ONI) Warning Type Form of Issuance Int’l Prediction centers Action/Response (SSTA) Neutral; no favourable development of El Niño between <0.5oC and > - Be Aware Monthly Climate Assessment and conditions within the next six N/A 0.5oC or neutral Outlook *** months. Issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El 1 month 0.5°C* or greater is between <0.5oC and > - Niño within the next six months and Watch Be Aware/ Be Prepared Press Statement observed 0.5oC or neutral probability is 55% or more. Issued when ONI of +0.5oC or 3 consecutive ONI of Press Statement 5 consecutive months of greater is forecasted to persist in +0.5oC or greater is already 0.5°C* or greater is the next 2 months or more and El Alert Early Action observed Issuance of Dry Spell/Drought observed Niño is likely/probable by 70% or Assessment to monitor early impacts. more** (to satisfy 5 ONI). El Nino Advisories 7 consecutive months of 5 consecutive Press Statement Issued when El Niño is observed and 0.5°C* or greater is ONI of +0.5C or greater is expected to continue. Advisory Take Action observed already observed Issuance of Dry Spell/Drought Assessment and Outlook for areas affected and likely to be affected. ONI is between <0.5oC Assess and Take Action Issued after El Niño has ended. Final Advisory Press Statement and > -0.5oC or neutral whenever necessary PAGASA ENSO ALERT AND WARNING SYSTEM LA NIOA WARNING SYSTEM AND RECOMMENDED ACTION/RESPONSE: Observed Sea Surface Observed Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) Forecast from CPC NOAA and other Recommended Warning Type Form of Issuance Temperature anomaly (SSTA) Int’l Prediction centers Action/Response Neutral; no Monthly Climate between <0.5oC and > -0.5oC or favourable development of La NIña Assessment and Outlook N/A N/A neutral conditions within the next six months. *** Issued when conditions are favorable 1 month -0.5°C* or less is between <0.5oC and > -0.5oC or for the development of La Niña within Be Aware/ Be Prepared Watch Press Statement observed neutral the next six months and probability is 55% or more. Issued when ONI of -0.5oC or less is 3 consecutive ONI of -0.5oC or less is forecasted to persist in the next 2 5 consecutive months of - already observed months or more and La Niña is 0.5°C* or less is observed Alert Early Action Press Statement likely/probable by 70% or more** (to satisfy 5 ONI). 5 consecutive La Niña Advisory and 7 consecutive months of - Issued when La Niña is observed and ONI of -0.5C or less is already Advisory Take Action Press Statement (if 0.5°C* or less is observed expected to continue. observed necessary) La Niña Advisory (Final) ONI is between <0.5°C and > -0.5°C Assess and Take Action Issued after La Niña has ended. Final Advisory and Press Statement (if or neutral whenever necessary necessary) NEW ENSO ALERT AND WARNING SYSTEM adopted 21 October 2019 As input to the National El Nino Task Force Contingency Plan THANK YOU Initiatives/Strategies of PAGASA on the current El Niño • Daily rainfall monitoring and assessment; • Weekly monitoring and update on El Nino indicators (SSTs, ONI, SOI); • Monthly updates of 6-month forecast; • Monthly Assessment of Dry Spell Situation and Outlook at Possible affected areas (whole country, major rice-producing areas and watershed areas) • Dissemination of forecasts and advisories thru quad-media • Refresher Workshop on Climate Information and Seasonal Forecasting for PAGASA PRSD (Northern Luzon, Southern Luzon and Mindanao) • Conduct of Climate Outlook Forum / El Nino Forum • National at the PAGASA Central Office (monthly); • As Response Action Plans for El Nino Task Force • Local Fora in partnership with partner NGOs at various areas in the country (approx. 30 local fora) • Local Climate Forum for Regional Stakeholders thru PAGASA PRSD (3 fora- Northern Luzon, Southern Luzon and Mindanao) • Installed and operationalized more than 15 AWS In partnership with various NGO and International organizations (i.e., FAO) Initiatives/Strategies of PAGASA on the current El Niño • Attendance to meetings, planning workshops and TWGs under the Department of Agriculture (DA); • Various DA Regional Field Offices (RFOs) (I, CAR, II, III, IV-B, V) • PCAF meetings at the Da Central Office • Agripinoy Quarterly Planning Workshop (Rice and Corn) • DA - ATI Workshops and tour visits • SWISA (Irrigators) thru BSWM • Membership/attendance to Technical Working Group (TWG) meetings; ₋ TWG for Angat Dam thru the National Water Resources Board (twice monthly) ₋ Membership/Meeting with Food Security Committee on Rice thru NEDA ₋ El Nino Task Force meeting spearheaded by NEDA ₋ NDRRMC Full Council Meeting • Attendance to meetings with other NGAs ⁻ DPWH ⁻ DOLE ⁻ DILG Plans of PAGASA on the current El Niño • Continuous monitoring of Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) as indication for developing El Nino
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