140th Climate Forum 22 September 2021 CLIMATE OUTLOOK OCTOBER 2021 – MARCH 2022

Prepared by: PAGASA-DOST Climatology & Agrometeorology Division (CAD) Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

Presenter: Rusy G. Abastillas Senior Weather Specialist, CAD-CLIMPS ENSO STATUS

Climate Outlook (OCTOBER 2021 – MARCH 2022)

Summary In the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were near- to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and were above average in the western Pacific Ocean. Conditions in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

As of 20 September 2021:

Negative subsurface temperature anomalies persisted into March 2021. From mid-March to early July 2021, subsurface temperature was above average. Since mid-May 2021, positive temperature anomalies have weakened. Negative anomalies strengthened in July and again in mid-September.

Source: NOAA CPC 5

Model Predictions of ENSO from Sep 2021

Most of the models in the set of dynamical and statistical model predictions issued during mid- September 2021 show below-average SST conditions likely to cool further in coming months. During the Sep-Nov through Dec-Feb seasons, La Niña conditions are favored over ENSO-neutral. For Jan-Mar, the odds are more equal. This re-emergence of La Niña is predicted to potentially persist long enough to constitute a La Niña event.

SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ

Average, Dynamical models -0.63 -0.78 -0.84 -0.75 -0.57 -0.39 -0.24 0.01 0.12 Average, Statistical models -0.62 -0.63 -0.62 -0.55 -0.47 -0.33 -0.2 -0.11 -0.04 Average, All models -0.63 -0.74 -0.78 -0.7 -0.54 -0.37 -0.22 -0.04 0.04 6

The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts a transition to La Niña in in the next month and La Niña to continue through fall and winter 2021-22. Model + Expert Judgement Purely Model Output Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the ONI computed using ERSST.v5

Recent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 ºC for the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)]. For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons. The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods. The complete table going back to DJF 1950 can be found here. • ENSO Alert System Status: La Nina Alert  A transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the coming months;  There is a 70-80% chance of La Niña forming in the last quarter of 2021 which may persist until the first quarter of 2022. WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MAY AFFECT THE COUNTRY October 2021 – March 2022

RIDGE OF HIGH INTER-TROPICAL EASTERLIES PRESSURE AREAS (HPAs) THUNDERSTORMS CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ)

LOW PRESSURE AREAS (LPAs) TROPICAL CYCLONES NORTHEAST TAIL-END OF THE MONSOON FRONTAL SYSTEM *Transition to NE (Oct) Understanding our Rainfall Maps.. PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION

Less than or = 40 way below normal

41 – 80 below normal

81 – 120 near normal

Greater than 120 above normal OCTOBER 2021 Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal used in the maps was the results of the initial calculations. Data will be recalculated once the official normal is released. way below normal below normal near normal above normal 0 0 34 49 NOVEMBER 2021 Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal used in the maps was the results of the initial calculations. Data will be recalculated once the official normal is released. way below normal below normal near normal above normal 0 0 32 51 DECEMBER 2021 Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal used in the maps was the results of the initial calculations. Data will be recalculated once the official normal is released. way below normal below normal near normal above normal 0 0 58 25 JANUARY 2022 Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal used in the maps was the results of the initial calculations. Data will be recalculated once the official normal is released. way below normal below normal near normal above normal 0 8 28 48 FEBRUARY 2022 Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal used in the maps was the results of the initial calculations. Data will be recalculated once the official normal is released. way below normal below normal near normal above normal 1 7 19 56 MARCH 2022 Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal used in the maps was the results of the initial calculations. Data will be recalculated once the official normal is released. way below normal below normal near normal above normal 3 7 27 46 FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal (October 2021 - March 2022) as of Sep 22, 2021

PROVINCE OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH PROVINCE OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH PROVINCE OCTOBERNOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA) CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) 117.4 127.5 117.5 155.4 114.6 170.4 114.1 97.5 95.5 67.8 52.6 35.9 144.3 132.6 124.6 122.9 131.1 109.7 114.1 127.7 113.3 155.3 118.7 170.8 88.2 115.1 85.3 89.8 91.1 75.8 144.0 140.0 124.8 115.2 109.4 83.4 113.7 128.3 114.0 157.5 119.1 168.0 118.3 117.5 116.4 98.5 116.2 79.5 142.5 137.1 127.1 120.0 115.0 87.7 REGION X (NORTHERN ) 114.3 112.5 118.5 104.2 98.1 71.7 138.3 133.2 121.5 135.4 126.0 116.5 114.1 128.2 115.3 112.9 136.0 145.3 111.7 107.5 109.6 95.0 71.6 66.4 124.2 137.8 140.1 113.5 114.2 103.8 120.0 121.5 107.4 129.7 139.6 153.9 116.3 115.7 112.5 95.0 99.5 67.5 143.7 132.5 133.0 98.2 110.1 89.5 REGION I REGION V (BICOL) 113.9 124.3 111.9 135.2 133.3 168.6 118.0 80.3 92.6 61.3 32.1 30.7 142.0 130.0 111.9 132.8 131.7 117.6 116.8 124.7 116.0 144.3 120.6 174.2 102.4 95.8 87.7 63.5 50.9 31.3 143.3 131.8 125.4 119.3 137.8 143.7 117.3 122.1 110.6 122.9 142.9 151.4 91.0 133.0 83.3 79.0 71.0 56.7 146.9 119.5 111.5 125.8 132.2 133.3 REGION XI ( REGION) 128.5 135.3 92.6 65.2 79.0 92.5 133.0 136.9 118.0 137.3 141.9 131.9 DAVAO DE ORO 111.5 135.3 109.7 114.6 132.2 141.3 REGION II 147.9 123.9 125.1 132.0 152.5 125.9 105.0 85.6 112.3 102.3 115.9 121.3 120.8 122.7 105.0 108.9 121.3 87.1 143.9 119.8 120.6 130.3 144.3 128.2 105.6 97.5 110.7 106.8 124.3 130.1 116.1 118.9 109.9 104.3 123.4 135.8 109.1 111.5 122.8 125.6 106.2 93.3 REGION VI (WESTERN ) 119.6 127.7 107.1 107.7 133.5 149.5 123.6 118.1 139.1 120.3 140.0 98.0 120.8 123.6 119.9 128.1 118.1 119.2 118.4 133.0 109.0 115.5 132.0 144.9 121.2 114.1 106.7 98.9 116.3 102.3 125.4 135.4 126.3 123.0 122.5 116.5 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN) 134.4 128.8 129.2 110.2 135.8 106.1 112.6 119.9 117.8 129.1 127.5 129.0 SOUTH 119.0 131.7 105.5 112.8 134.9 159.3 REGION III (CENTRAL ) 125.4 136.9 125.7 126.2 145.5 138.8 COTABATO 112.5 118.8 108.4 114.4 126.4 151.7 161.9 98.0 101.4 91.3 90.8 97.7 120.1 128.8 122.6 124.5 136.8 131.1 120.8 132.5 105.5 110.4 136.8 157.2 130.4 111.7 125.7 104.2 101.2 109.5 123.0 126.7 120.4 144.7 138.1 149.5 125.6 117.5 100.3 81.2 93.2 110.1 114.0 126.1 105.3 122.4 130.4 164.4 REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS) 140.4 94.2 100.0 78.9 76.8 116.5 REGION XIII- 114.8 133.6 118.7 139.9 123.9 167.2 141.3 108.8 93.5 57.0 78.5 110.2 122.7 115.0 100.7 124.2 132.3 147.3 163.6 115.4 96.8 49.3 90.2 100.2 123.5 122.2 109.4 140.4 145.8 160.9 121.7 118.6 104.8 116.8 128.8 144.1 136.6 103.8 126.7 114.0 126.8 108.2 117.8 133.7 113.6 141.8 146.6 157.2 125.7 118.0 100.3 126.1 138.1 138.2 NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION 111.5 134.1 115.7 137.0 121.6 176.9 124.9 118.0 97.5 125.5 133.4 138.5 METRO 146.1 148.3 134.9 136.5 110.2 85.9 REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS) 124.3 114.1 98.8 121.3 127.2 144.5 REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) 130.8 123.5 115.4 125.3 151.0 134.9 BARMM 152.8 134.1 132.9 129.3 135.8 85.4 EASTERN 126.2 126.4 115.2 121.8 129.6 134.5 114.8 131.8 112.2 165.2 120.7 161.3 159.6 140.7 130.1 135.9 127.8 73.9 127.3 103.9 109.4 130.4 151.1 140.2 109.1 123.7 103.8 128.0 130.7 174.5 152.3 155.4 132.5 133.1 136.5 97.7 145.9 116.6 118.5 119.8 138.0 135.8 112.7 123.2 110.0 128.1 135.6 167.0 143.7 214.5 136.9 129.9 124.4 95.4 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 128.9 122.8 115.1 120.7 138.7 133.8 112.7 125.3 118.7 149.3 125.4 151.2 141.4 129.2 127.4 120.6 134.8 114.9 137.5 117.0 104.6 133.2 140.0 146.9 TAWI-TAWI 114.9 127.7 125.7 138.1 124.5 138.6 FORECAST RAINFALL in Millimeter (October 2021 - March 2022) as of Sep 22, 2021 PROVINCE OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN ABRA 153.6 322.4 250.5 34.6 279.9 179.7 47.3 155.3 99.5 2.7 24.8 12.8 2.1 21.1 11.9 2.7 24.8 12.9 BENGUET 259.3 390.1 317.7 67.9 234.2 151.1 51.7 146.2 95.5 29.6 58.4 22.3 15.8 40.7 25.9 29.6 58.4 43.4 IFUGAO 300.3 336.4 313.7 194.1 259.5 241.9 140.0 309.8 217.4 33.3 59.8 41.9 27.6 59.6 42.8 33.3 59.8 44.7 KALINGA 289.7 326.0 317.3 245.5 291.6 273.2 135.7 254.5 192.4 18.4 37.0 32.8 18.1 45.9 29.5 18.4 37.0 26.8 APAYAO 242.0 323.6 299.1 168.0 354.6 276.1 107.7 230.7 170.8 12.3 34.3 54.0 15.6 53.9 33.9 12.3 34.3 23.6 MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 292.8 326.2 315.0 231.2 269.4 255.1 118.0 277.6 184.3 23.4 43.5 29.1 18.7 52.2 31.1 23.4 43.5 32.7 REGION I ILOCOS NORTE 130.8 289.4 201.2 23.3 262.0 100.8 33.7 165.5 83.3 0.4 29.3 27.7 0.3 52.3 15.9 0.4 29.3 10.1 ILOCOS SUR 124.4 304.9 226.6 20.2 246.2 137.7 30.3 127.7 74.4 0.3 33.3 9.7 0.6 22.2 12.5 0.3 33.3 17.6 LA UNION 259.8 335.7 278.6 67.7 169.1 136.0 44.2 72.2 56.2 23.7 42.1 10.4 13.5 19.2 15.7 23.7 42.1 30.8 PANGASINAN 275.1 390.2 323.7 66.3 161.7 112.8 36.1 126.4 52.9 17.0 54.4 7.9 3.3 37.0 13.3 17.0 54.4 26.9 REGION II BATANES 339.5 374.8 366.8 284.7 351.0 323.5 171.9 214.2 194.0 40.3 67.6 166.1 104.5 108.2 106.1 40.3 67.6 55.6 CAGAYAN 271.2 337.9 313.3 231.0 369.4 313.8 150.1 315.3 251.4 23.6 65.8 98.7 29.4 129.4 63.7 23.6 65.8 41.7 ISABELA 302.3 561.3 352.2 238.2 721.9 325.2 246.2 655.0 391.8 32.3 198.4 128.8 42.2 272.9 119.8 32.3 198.4 88.8 NUEVA VIZCAYA 310.2 483.2 383.4 103.7 382.4 256.5 92.7 377.7 235.6 49.5 161.1 83.5 30.7 160.7 73.1 49.5 161.1 80.2 QUIRINO 326.0 582.7 445.7 258.6 785.8 420.9 301.7 659.2 432.0 65.9 207.2 174.2 70.5 273.7 161.4 65.9 207.2 140.1 REGION III BATAAN 327.1 384.8 360.8 0.0 108.6 49.9 47.8 136.1 78.6 13.4 21.0 10.0 3.9 17.8 8.1 13.4 21.0 15.3 BULACAN 294.6 505.8 364.8 0.0 767.2 221.0 103.8 457.5 242.1 17.2 125.3 53.5 0.0 164.5 41.7 17.2 125.3 46.1 NUEVA ECIJA 221.9 470.0 326.4 14.2 393.3 162.8 51.9 367.8 164.6 13.2 134.7 63.1 0.2 146.9 49.3 13.2 134.7 55.8 PAMPANGA 256.8 358.1 299.2 0.0 371.5 67.1 42.7 176.0 92.0 18.4 33.7 12.1 0.0 21.2 7.4 18.4 33.7 26.2 TARLAC 244.2 413.6 308.9 46.8 206.2 89.0 34.0 95.7 47.2 13.8 28.5 4.4 0.1 10.6 6.3 13.8 28.5 20.9 ZAMBALES 326.5 465.1 390.8 27.2 134.1 84.4 30.7 60.6 39.2 13.7 23.4 3.0 3.8 13.7 8.3 13.7 23.4 17.6 AURORA 420.7 695.1 543.5 0.0 926.4 502.7 289.3 796.3 524.6 113.7 270.5 245.0 116.2 365.0 224.0 113.7 270.5 188.3 NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION 309.1 407.3 358.9 0.0 432.8 209.1 154.1 272.1 203.6 16.8 41.9 44.8 8.7 50.2 29.6 16.8 41.9 26.8 REGION IV-A BATANGAS 307.0 532.2 392.8 155.0 593.4 322.4 159.3 506.0 306.0 16.6 82.1 73.9 21.1 131.5 56.3 16.6 82.1 39.2 CAVITE 310.9 362.1 326.9 49.6 251.7 142.4 144.0 238.8 185.5 10.7 28.0 31.7 19.7 38.9 24.3 10.7 28.0 16.3 LAGUNA 314.3 636.2 463.0 148.5 882.6 480.8 208.4 651.8 419.6 20.1 158.2 139.0 28.7 228.7 109.3 20.1 158.2 76.9 RIZAL 373.0 569.8 452.2 185.1 1000.9 677.2 241.3 576.6 394.1 35.7 147.1 138.2 35.8 204.2 108.2 35.7 147.1 78.1 QUEZON 335.3 688.0 574.0 147.0 1026.2 610.4 377.1 817.7 642.7 51.0 306.0 262.8 75.5 424.4 225.9 51.0 306.0 162.9 REGION IV-B MARINDUQUE 477.6 547.8 496.2 427.7 522.3 445.4 446.4 582.4 510.8 96.4 136.3 192.5 131.4 187.2 159.7 96.4 136.3 114.7 OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 345.0 451.7 405.8 141.3 378.6 280.4 141.3 319.4 231.6 11.0 55.4 57.6 12.9 73.2 42.3 11.0 55.4 34.1 ORIENTAL MINDORO 363.2 491.2 424.0 179.0 435.7 328.6 181.3 405.8 298.3 29.8 79.7 95.7 31.5 105.5 68.2 29.8 79.7 53.2 ROMBLON 372.5 474.4 419.0 272.4 424.2 351.1 262.8 408.8 341.5 78.8 105.2 157.3 82.7 130.1 110.0 78.8 105.2 97.4 PALAWAN 220.6 413.3 312.9 169.8 307.4 245.9 147.4 313.6 236.1 8.1 83.7 65.6 7.9 67.5 44.9 8.1 83.7 52.3 SPRATLY ISLANDS 339.2 349.9 341.0 180.9 194.9 183.3 167.3 176.1 169.0 48.4 27.9 29.5 28.2 28.2 28.7 28.3 REGION V ALBAY 342.5 487.4 404.5 212.7 648.9 405.2 405.9 628.6 496.9 80.6 292.3 279.5 113.2 349.2 205.8 80.6 292.3 156.6 CAMARINES NORTE 565.1 699.3 620.2 532.4 714.5 628.3 595.1 790.3 754.7 191.8 291.5 330.5 207.3 313.0 288.5 191.8 291.5 246.1 CAMARINES SUR 374.8 640.3 494.1 206.2 671.6 410.0 360.6 735.6 520.1 79.4 246.1 239.5 82.7 277.4 171.8 79.4 246.1 152.6 CATANDUANES 469.9 504.2 483.6 515.3 594.9 553.9 581.2 625.8 612.4 213.5 249.5 387.1 235.3 267.0 248.5 213.5 249.5 229.4 MASBATE 341.3 472.9 381.4 249.2 454.8 325.0 340.7 506.5 442.9 93.6 228.0 264.2 117.4 264.8 190.0 93.6 228.0 153.7 SORSOGON 395.3 476.2 446.8 386.1 648.2 520.8 471.2 632.5 582.7 135.2 308.2 397.5 187.6 338.4 307.7 135.2 308.2 266.7 FORECAST RAINFALL in Millimeter (October 2021 - March 2022) as of Sep 22, 2021

PROVINCE OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH REGION VI MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN AKLAN 307.2 397.9 346.7 269.4 427.5 345.2 247.1 327.5 290.8 90.0 194.3 170.1 75.0 127.1 102.6 90.0 194.3 140.0 ANTIQUE 278.0 407.7 316.1 215.9 342.2 260.6 187.1 289.8 228.9 44.6 140.4 111.5 37.9 97.8 72.4 44.6 140.4 103.6 CAPIZ 290.3 405.7 335.1 246.7 443.0 367.1 246.1 338.3 305.2 75.5 227.0 187.4 85.3 138.6 114.3 75.5 227.0 154.9 GUIMARAS 282.5 353.1 311.2 189.0 223.5 200.9 192.8 206.9 196.1 72.0 90.2 73.9 57.1 73.2 65.1 72.0 90.2 81.3 ILOILO 268.5 391.5 299.8 189.3 413.0 268.6 188.9 361.5 248.1 69.1 176.2 130.7 54.5 151.7 89.5 69.1 176.2 115.4 NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 293.6 432.0 345.2 221.5 267.5 253.3 190.7 283.0 215.4 93.1 132.0 124.5 77.1 157.2 99.0 93.1 132.0 110.5 REGION VII NEGROS ORIENTAL 162.3 403.4 275.8 229.9 269.2 248.0 188.2 225.9 201.9 109.5 145.3 137.0 83.2 109.9 94.5 109.5 145.3 123.1 BOHOL 215.3 337.4 261.9 176.3 293.1 235.4 194.6 311.2 239.8 124.4 206.9 254.7 123.4 244.5 181.0 124.4 206.9 165.8 CEBU 183.5 377.5 274.7 210.9 359.9 251.5 188.1 432.1 246.0 99.2 224.8 197.1 90.2 329.4 152.5 99.2 224.8 132.6 SIQUIJOR 201.4 246.8 225.1 224.9 257.4 243.2 202.3 220.4 211.6 139.6 150.8 180.8 102.5 124.7 114.6 139.6 150.8 146.2 REGION VIII BILIRAN 340.2 369.1 358.6 348.2 376.2 355.3 454.3 497.5 473.7 225.7 252.8 356.5 273.4 315.0 298.6 225.7 252.8 243.1 309.6 422.9 377.3 398.7 581.9 477.9 512.9 650.5 594.5 306.6 391.5 556.3 362.2 460.7 408.3 306.6 391.5 345.3 LEYTE 268.6 376.2 334.1 246.7 388.7 311.0 329.1 510.6 432.8 200.6 323.8 414.8 261.4 415.3 356.7 200.6 323.8 259.8 NORTHERN SAMAR 378.5 516.5 452.8 363.3 520.3 462.4 544.1 728.4 653.0 248.2 432.0 532.1 280.2 421.7 379.4 248.2 432.0 364.0 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 274.2 469.4 379.9 339.7 528.7 413.4 490.7 653.0 569.2 249.0 367.8 473.5 282.1 422.9 362.3 249.0 367.8 316.1 SOUTHERN LEYTE 313.0 368.2 343.1 261.9 460.1 305.5 325.5 447.9 394.5 213.4 377.9 508.5 256.1 501.0 374.9 213.4 377.9 279.8 REGION IX ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 242.0 364.8 290.5 167.2 422.3 269.8 123.8 292.4 210.8 115.2 178.6 184.4 73.2 141.6 113.4 115.2 178.6 150.3 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 230.9 311.0 253.8 145.9 309.2 213.6 106.6 246.0 183.3 109.6 168.0 166.8 63.5 131.6 109.3 109.6 168.0 150.7 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 233.9 265.7 256.9 202.4 223.0 210.4 146.5 203.2 174.1 124.5 156.5 161.9 84.8 117.3 101.8 124.5 156.5 141.8 REGION X BUKIDNON 220.6 323.7 280.7 138.6 274.4 243.4 174.3 254.9 208.6 93.8 221.9 191.8 117.0 241.8 159.8 93.8 221.9 161.3 CAMIGUIN 281.1 296.2 282.8 285.2 302.5 290.1 253.7 272.4 261.4 185.2 202.9 304.7 216.5 245.0 230.4 185.2 202.9 193.7 LANAO DEL NORTE 220.2 259.1 238.9 146.5 259.3 208.2 171.2 211.2 190.6 99.7 171.7 159.6 115.1 128.5 122.6 99.7 171.7 148.2 MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 248.8 333.3 291.9 224.6 377.7 285.5 206.0 263.3 233.7 84.4 229.8 200.4 124.9 136.6 131.3 151.6 167.8 160.2 MISAMIS ORIENTAL 210.2 279.0 249.2 136.4 281.4 219.6 172.8 285.7 223.5 84.4 229.8 245.0 113.5 302.1 184.1 84.4 229.8 149.4 REGION XI DAVAO DE ORO 185.2 286.7 241.6 176.3 338.4 254.5 193.2 350.6 263.0 153.3 431.0 396.7 164.1 481.7 298.5 153.3 431.0 271.9 DAVAO CITY 202.3 271.4 251.8 154.6 258.9 200.7 175.2 206.6 187.0 136.4 203.3 167.7 121.1 196.4 147.6 136.4 203.3 164.0 DAVAO DEL NORTE 191.5 296.5 241.9 155.8 282.8 235.1 182.6 286.7 221.2 143.8 317.4 269.2 137.8 347.8 222.7 143.8 317.4 218.9 DAVAO DEL SUR 195.6 272.0 250.2 173.0 243.4 215.0 144.2 182.6 164.1 119.8 147.1 132.0 99.3 123.4 113.2 119.8 147.1 135.0 DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 177.7 261.1 222.9 155.3 266.5 220.5 140.2 193.9 164.7 113.4 178.3 159.2 96.4 172.2 128.2 113.4 178.3 138.4 DAVAO ORIENTAL 224.1 292.2 263.7 206.9 358.1 275.1 207.0 368.6 267.3 168.9 463.1 415.5 177.8 520.0 297.5 168.9 463.1 269.8 REGION XII 118.2 246.3 201.2 107.3 239.5 188.4 110.8 153.5 136.0 88.7 168.3 111.1 77.0 123.5 101.6 88.7 168.3 130.8 COTABATO 240.9 282.2 259.8 199.2 271.2 242.4 145.3 199.6 168.2 141.8 207.6 129.4 108.8 166.9 126.4 141.8 207.6 170.4 SARANGANI 131.1 246.3 195.1 110.2 250.2 181.6 121.3 178.2 146.3 95.5 161.5 132.5 83.8 151.8 111.7 95.5 161.5 128.5 SULTAN KUDARAT 211.7 258.2 245.2 199.4 248.4 236.1 140.6 161.1 150.6 128.2 189.8 114.9 101.0 128.6 118.2 128.2 189.8 165.3 REGION XIII AGUSAN DEL NORTE 210.5 282.7 243.3 226.5 393.2 262.1 257.3 391.3 310.9 198.3 368.0 494.3 246.8 495.7 354.3 198.3 368.0 266.7 AGUSAN DEL SUR 228.6 340.1 277.5 234.4 505.8 299.7 241.3 459.4 320.3 196.2 611.0 526.5 225.3 680.4 395.3 196.2 611.0 340.4 DINAGAT ISLANDS 303.2 329.7 307.6 349.8 496.4 410.7 454.9 491.4 465.6 330.5 434.7 689.3 458.0 587.8 526.3 330.5 434.7 386.4 SURIGAO DEL NORTE 267.2 317.6 301.6 310.1 527.5 420.0 375.1 468.7 431.4 347.5 465.5 724.8 466.2 626.0 538.0 347.5 465.5 400.3 SURIGAO DEL SUR 254.1 348.6 291.8 269.2 511.6 349.6 350.1 478.3 397.2 335.7 650.0 735.8 447.1 719.1 534.8 335.7 650.0 441.3 BARMM BASILAN 237.9 255.8 246.0 155.5 215.3 182.0 114.7 153.9 123.9 110.0 123.2 118.4 69.8 83.8 76.3 110.0 123.2 118.5 MAGUINDANAO 236.0 290.1 264.2 211.4 240.1 233.9 140.6 172.9 150.6 142.6 217.6 119.3 108.1 127.4 121.4 142.6 217.6 188.8

LANAO DEL SUR 233.3 270.6 247.9 190.2 250.4 226.5 150.7 198.4 178.2 121.8 197.4 140.1 118.5 133.1 124.1 121.8 197.4 160.5 SULU 236.1 265.3 247.1 207.4 217.3 212.9 134.4 178.5 168.1 97.5 126.5 112.4 70.7 91.8 84.0 97.5 126.5 114.9 TAWI-TAWI 236.4 298.7 253.0 209.4 242.4 210.4 173.6 218.7 178.1 87.2 121.6 105.1 66.7 93.8 78.6 87.2 121.6 103.5 FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected and Lakes in (mm) and (%N) FOR OCT 2021 - MAR 2022

Pantabangan San Roque NAME Angat WS La Mesa WS Magat WS Malinao WS WS Cascade WS MIN 332.4 378.7 342.5 210.2 302.2 256.2 342.9 298.5 MAX 504.5 395.7 544.3 283.8 415.6 285.7 434.5 385.5 OCTOBER MEAN 437.6 386.7 415.4 244.1 344.4 273.8 391.7 346.3 %NORMAL 126.9 138.9 146.9 114.0 116.2 123.8 133.2 91.1 MIN 252.6 94.8 206.2 136.4 170.8 235.0 173.3 73.7 MAX 758.2 222.6 467.7 258.0 298.0 276.7 311.3 208.0 NOVEMBER MEAN 443.9 164.5 285.1 205.6 241.4 259.4 235.2 134.5 %NORMAL 125.8 133.2 119.5 124.3 113.6 124.0 126.1 101.9 MIN 271.1 227.7 360.6 171.5 134.3 237.8 142.2 62.0 MAX 439.9 274.4 538.0 202.3 323.0 262.6 301.6 150.5 DECEMBER MEAN 357.2 248.1 430.4 185.0 208.8 250.8 215.5 103.9 %NORMAL 131.1 137.6 106.7 112.4 108.2 108.8 102.0 84.9 MIN 48.3 46.5 157.6 132.2 25.6 252.6 61.7 17.8 MAX 163.2 62.1 310.6 172.1 109.4 295.8 161.8 40.9 JANUARY MEAN 100.7 54.7 199.5 144.2 54.3 275.6 102.9 27.8 %NORMAL 100.4 130.7 128.2 123.8 97.0 139.2 94.8 92.3 MIN 22.8 25.8 82.7 113.5 29.4 179.1 48.7 21.5 MAX 164.4 38.8 246.7 135.2 98.8 205.1 123.1 40.7 FEBRUARY MEAN 99.7 32.7 128.2 123.1 51.9 193.4 80.1 30.8 %NORMAL 122.4 106.7 128.0 140.8 114.1 144.8 105.9 100.7 MIN 41.0 31.8 79.4 84.4 34.2 161.4 61.7 41.6 MAX 128.8 41.1 183.0 179.0 96.2 181.3 127.1 57.6 MARCH MEAN 72.3 36.1 101.3 136.1 58.4 172.4 89.1 50.4 %NORMAL 100.6 100.8 123.0 159.3 89.3 159.8 114.9 91.1 FORECAST RAINFALL OF RAIN STATIONS OVER SELECTED AREAS in (mm) and (%N) FOR OCT 2021 - MAR 2022

OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH SITES MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL AMBUKLAODAM 343.5 83.6 136.0 102.8 103.4 82.5 26.7 93.3 30.0 98.9 50.4 85.3 ANGATDAM 329.1 128.4 263.4 132.9 291.0 141.2 49.4 114.7 23.6 109.6 47.9 149.5 APUNAN 314.8 90.3 175.2 115.4 125.0 90.2 30.2 93.4 32.1 96.6 47.1 75.0 BADAYAN 297.6 96.2 218.2 127.8 129.7 94.6 24.9 89.7 28.0 89.3 39.3 62.8 BINGADAM 360.5 85.8 118.1 94.4 95.2 80.4 25.5 93.1 30.0 104.1 53.1 97.7 BOBOK 356.8 91.7 153.5 99.7 122.6 86.5 32.7 93.7 34.8 102.2 53.4 89.3 BUNGA 395.3 131.0 231.3 122.5 184.3 98.3 71.8 91.2 57.9 106.3 70.5 115.7 BUYOC 312.3 119.0 239.2 116.3 220.3 114.8 47.5 98.0 47.6 118.3 50.7 82.9 DANTOR 316.0 120.5 243.8 115.8 205.9 116.0 36.3 97.5 37.7 112.0 39.7 75.5 DUMAYUP 341.3 122.0 267.9 119.0 264.5 118.6 70.9 100.1 66.9 126.8 67.7 93.2 HALONG 309.8 113.8 241.3 117.6 178.6 107.7 32.9 93.8 35.0 103.5 40.7 71.3 IPODAM 332.0 132.7 0.0 96.4 226.0 134.4 31.1 117.0 8.9 99.7 32.0 125.8 MAGATDAM 310.5 128.5 244.1 120.6 283.5 131.8 54.0 103.0 53.6 137.0 48.8 89.3 MAPUTI 489.9 116.8 436.5 96.6 361.4 120.7 122.3 88.7 140.7 115.1 113.5 107.9 MARIKIT 418.0 132.7 266.8 120.6 287.2 104.1 152.8 101.4 116.3 104.6 120.8 111.6 MATULID 411.3 136.4 526.7 155.6 394.0 140.7 103.5 109.2 94.4 142.4 43.6 84.1 NORZAGARAY 326.7 131.4 0.0 100.3 219.8 132.5 27.4 112.8 5.6 97.0 31.0 126.3 PADALIS 402.4 135.5 257.9 128.7 242.5 104.1 112.8 96.9 87.4 107.2 96.1 115.2 347.3 132.9 184.0 133.3 172.5 99.7 85.1 89.0 64.5 100.8 73.6 117.8 SANROQUEDAM 362.1 112.2 89.2 100.9 75.2 85.8 22.0 83.4 23.4 95.8 43.7 110.3 STODOMINGO 358.2 113.0 244.7 106.6 216.4 105.8 66.1 98.7 61.1 116.8 69.2 96.6 TALAGUIO 412.5 130.0 349.8 128.8 289.0 131.4 60.9 103.6 39.0 100.1 42.7 98.0 UMIRAY 506.3 132.6 756.4 157.1 474.1 133.7 183.3 108.6 167.4 135.0 109.1 92.6 FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS in (mm) and (%N) FOR OCT - DEC 2021

OCTOBER 2021 NOVEMBER 2021 DECEMBER 2021 LUZON CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal Abra RB 136.1 316.5 256.5 112.0 23.3 273.2 187.6 101.6 36.0 148.7 101.8 95.0 Abulug RB 241.6 319.9 296.8 111.5 170.6 365.0 281.2 107.6 114.1 246.7 174.7 109.4 Agno RB 266.7 403.5 331.9 127.1 48.9 233.1 112.8 120.4 33.9 153.7 66.2 91.6 Bicol RB 342.5 650.5 450.9 147.0 206.2 678.9 339.7 120.4 360.6 740.1 468.6 108.8 Bued RB 277.7 372.4 333.0 108.4 66.3 97.8 76.1 119.9 36.7 71.9 54.5 85.7 Cagayan RB 288.4 621.4 350.0 120.5 169.0 856.1 310.2 117.5 131.6 702.8 295.7 125.8 RB 130.8 264.3 206.4 123.6 23.3 219.1 110.3 90.2 41.6 136.6 80.8 93.3 Pampanga RB 221.9 504.5 327.7 130.6 0.0 753.6 156.4 110.4 42.5 438.9 158.1 103.6 Pasig-Laguna RB 308.2 598.6 407.1 148.8 0.0 897.1 373.8 154.5 121.5 583.4 324.1 133.2 Sinocalan RB 275.1 345.9 309.6 127.2 80.7 107.1 93.7 148.1 36.2 68.8 44.3 91.9 MINDANAO CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal Agus RB 210.2 254.9 229.0 115.3 136.4 231.5 172.8 122.3 172.8 201.8 187.0 112.8 Agusan RB 210.5 318.0 267.4 120.2 223.1 455.6 282.2 120.4 228.2 412.7 304.1 105.6 Buayan-Malungon 118.2 236.1 187.7 122.3 107.3 228.0 171.0 133.1 117.9 164.6 145.1 106.7 216.7 292.7 255.0 113.8 137.1 251.5 194.1 128.3 178.5 201.5 190.4 115.1 Cotabato RB 176.0 323.7 260.8 113.1 154.6 275.2 241.1 124.3 127.9 252.3 171.1 108.9 Davao RB 228.8 284.6 254.7 107.2 154.6 273.8 229.2 89.5 182.5 233.9 197.7 112.2 Tagoloan River 243.1 319.2 287.2 114.0 179.6 260.3 228.4 133.9 199.9 238.0 219.9 116.4 -Libuganon 194.6 291.1 247.0 109.3 173.2 304.7 256.5 106.5 182.8 315.5 245.3 109.8 FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS in (mm) and (%N) FOR JAN – MAR 2022

JANUARY 2022 FEBRUARY 2022 MARCH 2022 LUZON CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal Abra RB 2.7 27.9 13.3 70.0 1.2 26.8 13.5 56.8 1.4 38.8 16.1 38.2 Abulug RB 26.1 107.9 60.0 95.3 17.1 61.9 36.4 70.9 13.4 38.3 24.7 68.1 Agno RB 0.0 47.1 13.5 69.5 1.0 44.6 15.6 86.2 15.5 61.7 30.9 101.7 Bicol RB 157.6 316.4 211.6 126.8 82.7 280.4 145.6 129.3 79.4 250.7 120.6 127.2 Bued RB 3.6 20.4 12.3 79.1 7.7 26.9 16.6 86.3 19.8 55.8 36.0 100.3 Cagayan RB 15.9 288.3 90.1 111.6 17.7 303.3 80.7 121.1 17.9 229.2 67.8 91.4 Laoag RB 5.0 44.9 19.6 62.0 0.3 27.2 10.6 33.7 0.8 18.4 8.0 30.1 Pampanga RB 0.7 206.3 48.8 82.4 0.0 164.2 38.3 89.8 13.2 152.7 47.2 111.6 Pasig-Laguna RB 3.9 253.4 95.1 131.3 0.0 206.2 70.7 124.9 17.5 148.3 54.5 96.7 Sinocalan RB 1.1 17.9 5.7 68.2 5.0 17.8 8.5 74.3 18.6 36.0 22.9 97.2 MINDANAO CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal Agus RB 136.0 188.4 154.0 124.7 113.5 139.5 121.7 145.2 84.4 143.4 113.7 156.7 Agusan RB 277.1 779.3 486.2 116.8 218.5 599.8 363.8 129.7 182.0 532.6 312.7 144.1 Buayan-Malungon 109.0 159.5 129.9 105.7 77.0 124.6 102.7 134.5 88.7 133.8 117.6 149.9 Cagayan de Oro 137.2 178.5 150.7 117.9 115.1 137.7 125.8 143.8 90.3 149.4 123.1 151.3 Cotabato RB 108.1 304.5 141.1 116.3 92.7 241.7 132.3 130.4 116.1 230.9 169.3 155.6 Davao RB 149.5 273.7 189.8 104.1 133.6 226.7 167.8 120.0 142.1 222.2 181.1 126.8 Tagoloan River 159.4 271.4 215.0 115.1 133.8 205.0 166.6 141.7 122.2 180.9 147.2 146.3 Tagum-Libuganon 199.4 524.3 334.8 109.4 174.9 402.1 268.3 127.0 179.6 362.7 254.0 134.7 NORMAL (1981 - 2010) FORECAST ANOMALY D PROVINCE OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) R ABRA 22 25 28 30 27 30 21 24 27 30 27 30 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 BENGUET 17 23 28 29 26 28 16 23 26 30 26 27 -1 0 -2 1 0 -1 IFUGAO 18 20 23 28 26 28 15 19 20 28 25 27 -3 -1 -3 0 -1 -1 Y KALINGA 19 21 24 29 27 29 18 21 23 29 26 29 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 APAYAO 21 21 24 27 26 29 21 20 23 26 26 29 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 18 22 25 29 27 29 17 21 23 29 26 28 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 REGION I ILOCOS NORTE 24 26 28 29 27 30 24 25 28 30 27 30 0 -1 0 1 0 0 D ILOCOS SUR 21 26 29 30 27 29 21 25 28 31 27 30 0 -1 -1 1 0 1 LA UNION 19 25 29 30 27 28 19 25 28 30 27 28 0 0 -1 0 0 0 PANGASINAN 21 26 29 30 27 29 21 25 29 31 28 28 0 -1 0 1 1 -1 A REGION II BATANES 16 15 16 17 18 24 13 13 16 18 18 24 -3 -2 0 1 0 0 Y CAGAYAN 18 16 19 23 23 27 17 15 19 22 23 27 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 ISABELA 17 16 18 23 22 25 15 14 16 23 20 24 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 -1 NUEVA VIZCAYA 17 21 24 27 24 26 15 19 22 27 24 26 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 QUIRINO 16 17 19 22 21 23 14 15 16 22 20 22 -2 -2 -3 0 -1 -1 REGION III () F BATAAN 21 24 27 30 27 29 18 24 28 30 28 30 -3 0 1 0 1 1 BULACAN 16 18 22 26 24 27 15 16 21 26 24 27 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 NUEVA ECIJA 19 22 26 28 25 27 17 20 25 28 25 27 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 O PAMPANGA 20 22 26 29 26 28 19 23 27 30 27 28 -1 1 1 1 1 0 TARLAC 22 25 28 30 27 29 21 24 28 31 28 28 -1 -1 0 1 1 -1 R ZAMBALES 21 25 28 29 27 29 20 24 29 31 28 29 -1 -1 1 2 1 0 AURORA 15 15 18 19 18 21 14 13 16 18 17 20 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION E METRO MANILA 17 20 26 28 26 29 14 16 22 28 26 28 -3 -4 -4 0 0 -1 REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) BATANGAS 18 18 21 25 24 27 17 17 19 24 22 27 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 C CAVITE 20 23 27 29 27 30 18 21 23 29 26 31 -2 -2 -4 0 -1 1 LAGUNA 15 15 18 22 22 26 11 11 15 20 21 25 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 A RIZAL 14 16 20 23 23 26 11 10 16 21 22 25 -3 -6 -4 -2 -1 -1 QUEZON 11 9 10 15 18 22 8 7 7 13 14 19 -3 -2 -3 -2 -4 -3 REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) S MARINDUQUE 12 11 11 17 19 23 9 8 7 14 14 20 -3 -3 -4 -3 -5 -3 OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 18 21 23 25 25 28 16 19 20 24 23 27 -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 -1 T ORIENTAL MINDORO 16 17 19 22 23 26 14 15 15 20 20 24 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3 -2 ROMBLON 15 16 18 22 23 25 12 13 14 19 20 23 -3 -3 -4 -3 -3 -2 PALAWAN 16 19 24 28 26 29 15 15 21 28 27 27 -1 -4 -3 0 1 -2 REGION V (BICOL) ALBAY 13 10 11 15 17 19 10 9 9 13 13 16 -3 -1 -2 -2 -4 -3 CAMARINES NORTE 11 7 8 12 16 21 8 6 5 11 10 17 -3 -1 -3 -1 -6 -4 CAMARINES SUR 12 10 11 16 18 20 9 8 8 14 13 18 -3 -2 -3 -2 -5 -2 CATANDUANES 13 12 15 21 20 22 12 9 11 19 17 21 -1 -3 -4 -2 -3 -1 MASBATE 16 15 16 19 20 24 15 14 13 16 16 22 -1 -1 -3 -3 -4 -2 SORSOGON 14 10 10 12 15 18 11 8 8 8 11 14 -3 -2 -2 -4 -4 -4 NORMAL (1981 - 2010) FORECAST ANOMALY D PROVINCE OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS) AKLAN 16 18 22 24 24 27 12 17 19 22 22 25 -4 -1 -3 -2 -2 -2 R ANTIQUE 16 20 24 26 25 28 15 20 22 24 23 25 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 CAPIZ 15 17 20 23 23 26 12 16 18 21 20 24 -3 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 GUIMARAS 15 19 23 26 25 26 15 19 21 24 21 23 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 Y ILOILO 15 19 22 25 24 26 14 18 20 22 21 24 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 15 19 22 25 24 26 13 16 19 24 19 23 -2 -3 -3 -1 -5 -3 REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS) NEGROS ORIENTAL 17 19 21 24 23 26 16 17 18 23 19 23 -1 -2 -3 -1 -4 -3 BOHOL 18 19 20 21 21 25 16 18 19 20 17 23 -2 -1 -1 -1 -4 -2 CEBU 17 19 20 22 22 25 15 16 17 21 18 22 -2 -3 -3 -1 -4 -3 D SIQUIJOR 19 19 20 21 22 26 17 17 17 20 18 24 -2 -2 -3 -1 -4 -2 REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS) BILIRAN 15 15 16 20 19 21 12 12 13 12 14 16 -3 -3 -3 -8 -5 -5 A EASTERN SAMAR 13 8 7 9 12 15 14 9 4 10 10 15 1 1 -3 1 -2 0 LEYTE 16 15 15 17 17 20 14 13 12 14 11 17 -2 -2 -3 -3 -6 -3 NORTHERN SAMAR 13 9 8 11 15 18 12 8 5 12 9 17 -1 -1 -3 1 -6 -1 Y SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 13 10 11 13 15 18 12 10 8 11 11 15 -1 0 -3 -2 -4 -3 SOUTHERN LEYTE 16 14 14 14 16 19 15 12 13 13 10 17 -1 -2 -1 -1 -6 -2 REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA) ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 16 14 18 21 21 25 14 12 16 19 19 21 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -4 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 16 14 19 22 21 24 14 12 16 19 19 20 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 16 15 19 22 22 24 14 12 17 19 20 20 -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 -4 F REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO) BUKIDNON 14 17 20 20 19 22 13 15 18 18 17 19 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 CAMIGUIN 19 19 21 19 21 25 17 19 20 19 16 24 -2 0 -1 0 -5 -1 O LANAO DEL NORTE 16 17 20 22 21 25 14 15 18 20 18 22 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 16 15 18 20 21 25 14 13 16 18 18 22 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 MISAMIS ORIENTAL 17 19 21 20 21 25 16 19 19 19 16 23 -1 0 -2 -1 -5 -2 R REGION XI () COMPOSTELA VALLEY 19 17 19 18 16 20 18 14 17 16 15 17 -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 -3 DAVAO CITY 15 17 21 20 20 21 14 16 20 19 19 20 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 E DAVAO DEL NORTE 16 16 20 19 19 21 16 15 18 17 17 18 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 DAVAO DEL SUR 18 19 22 22 21 23 16 19 21 20 20 22 -2 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 22 22 24 23 22 26 20 22 22 22 19 24 -2 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 C DAVAO ORIENTAL 21 17 18 17 16 20 19 15 16 16 14 17 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -3 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN) SOUTH COTABATO 20 20 23 24 21 24 18 20 21 21 19 22 -2 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 A COTABATO 15 17 21 21 20 21 14 16 19 19 19 19 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 SARANGANI 22 22 24 24 22 26 20 22 22 22 19 24 -2 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 SULTAN KUDARAT 17 18 22 23 21 23 16 17 19 20 18 19 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -4 S REGION XIII- CARAGA AGUSAN DEL NORTE 18 15 15 13 15 18 16 15 14 11 11 16 -2 0 -1 -2 -4 -2 AGUSAN DEL SUR 16 15 15 14 14 17 15 14 14 12 12 15 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 T DINAGAT ISLANDS 15 10 8 8 10 13 13 7 6 7 6 12 -2 -3 -2 -1 -4 -1 SURIGAO DEL NORTE 16 11 9 7 9 12 14 8 7 6 6 11 -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 -1 SURIGAO DEL SUR 16 12 9 8 9 12 14 11 9 7 7 11 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 ARMM BASILAN 20 21 25 27 24 26 19 18 23 25 22 22 -1 -3 -2 -2 -2 -4 MAGUINDANAO 16 17 21 22 20 21 14 15 18 19 18 17 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 LANAO DEL SUR 15 18 21 22 21 23 14 16 18 20 18 20 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 SULU 21 22 26 28 25 26 20 18 24 26 23 22 -1 -4 -2 -2 -2 -4 TAWI-TAWI 21 21 26 28 25 26 20 17 23 27 24 22 -1 -4 -3 -1 -1 -4 MONTHLY MEAN cooler slightly warmer warmer slightly warmer TEMPERATURE FORECAST average (OCTOBER 2021 – MARCH 2022) slightly cooler

warmer warmer warmer

slightly warmer

cooler cooler warmer warmer warmer warmer

warmer average warmer average warmer

average

warmer warmer warmer

warmer

average average

cooler coole r

average Slightly cooler

average warmer

cooler cooler warmer warmer

warmer warmer

average average

warmer warmer

average

average FORECAST RANGES OF EXTREME TEMPERATURE

Updated : 22 September 2021

Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 TMAX Summary Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Northern Luzon 29.5 37.1 28.4 37.5 28.2 35.2 26.3 35.3 27.2 36.2 29.5 38.0 Lowlands Luzon 29.2 37.0 27.8 39.4 27.2 36.9 26.9 35.7 27.0 36.5 28.8 37.8 Mountainous Luzon 24.9 26.5 25.8 27.5 25.4 27.7 24.8 28.3 25.0 27.1 26.1 28.1 Metro Manila 32.6 35.4 33.3 35.7 32.4 34.7 31.9 35.0 32.1 35.2 34.6 36.7 Lowlands Visayas 32.0 36.1 32.0 36.9 30.3 35.4 30.1 35.0 28.6 38.5 30.5 36.8 Lowlands Mindanao 32.0 36.5 33.0 37.0 31.2 36.7 31.5 36.5 31.6 37.0 32.0 38.3 Mountainous Mindanao 32.0 33.4 31.9 33.6 32.4 33.8 31.6 33.7 32.0 34.7 32.8 34.5

Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 TMIN Summary Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Northern Luzon 17.9 24.7 16.7 24.6 13.9 22.6 14.0 20.7 12.3 22.3 14.5 23.0 Lowlands Luzon 17.9 24.9 15.9 25.8 16.0 25.5 15.0 25.3 13.3 24.2 17.1 25.2 Mountainous Luzon 14.0 15.4 12.0 13.4 11.0 13.1 9.1 11.6 9.1 11.6 10.8 13.8 Metro Manila 21.6 24.8 20.5 25.7 19.0 24.9 17.9 24.5 17.4 22.8 19.3 24.5 Lowlands Visayas 20.0 25.5 20.0 24.8 18.7 24.5 18.9 25.0 17.1 24.4 18.8 24.6 Lowlands Mindanao 18.3 24.2 19.0 24.2 19.3 23.8 18.6 23.0 17.6 23.2 17.5 23.8 Mountainous Mindanao 17.2 19.0 15.2 17.6 14.3 17.0 14.0 16.5 12.0 15.4 14.0 17.0 OCTOBER JANUARY 2021 2 OR 3 2022 0 OR 1 NOVEMBER FEBRUARY 2021 2 OR 3 2022 0 or 1 DECEMBER MARCH 2021 1 OR 2 2022 0 or 1

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals

❑ Warning signals are based on wind speed.

TC WIND TC WIND TC WIND TC WIND TC WIND SIGNAL SIGNAL SIGNAL SIGNAL SIGNAL NO. 1 NO. 2 NO. 3 NO. 4 NO. 5

Tropical Cyclone Classification 30 -60 KPH 61- 120KPH 120 - 170 KPH 170- 220 KPH >220KPH Tropical cyclone intensity is based on the strength of the wind.

36 HRS 24 HRS 18 HRS 12 HRS 12 HRS TROPICAL TROPICAL SEVERE SUPER TD TS/STS TY TY STY DEPRESSION STORM TROPICAL (international TYPHOON (local name) STORM name) Introduced 2015

Since 2015 ≤ 61 KPH 62-88 KPH 89 - 117 KPH 118-220 KPH >220KPH Tropical Cyclone-Threat Potential Initialization: 21 September 2021 @8am

Forecast Summary: LPA2 LPA1 Week 1 (September 22 – September 28, 2021) As of today, a low pressure vortex (LPA1) exists inside the western section of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). It has a low likelihood of becoming a Tropical Cyclone (TC) and will likely move towards Vietnam. Moreover, another low pressure vortex (LPA2) will likely form outside the PAR. Recent forecast data suggest that it has a high likelihood of becoming a TC but will likely recurve towards Southern Japan before entering the PAR. LPA1 Week 2 (September 29 – October 5, 2021) Low likelihood of a low pressure vortex formation near or within the PAR. Therefore, no active TC-threat during the forecast period. However, any changes in the forecast will be closely monitored.

Note: The information contained herein are based on the 6-hourly forecasts of the NCEP-GEFS issued in the past 24hrs where the CWB TC Tracking algorithm was applied. This product was part of the collaboration between PAGASA and CWB through the MECO/TECO VOTE Project. This is for guidance purposes only.

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) SUMMARY . ENSO Alert System Status: LA NINA ALERT . There is a 70-80% chance of La Niña forming in the last quarter of 2021 which may persist until the first quarter of 2022. . Forecast Rainfall: • October - December 2021: generally near normal (NN) to above normal (AN) rainfall conditions in most parts of the country, and the probability of AN is high; • January – March 2022: generally NN - AN rainfall conditions in most parts of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao (with higher probability of AN), except for some provinces in the CAR, Region 1 and Region 3 where below normal (BN) rainfall conditions are likely. . Forecast temperature ranges from near average to above average over most areas of the country, except in some parts of northern Luzon and Visayas where below average temperatures are expected during the forecast period; . 5 – 8 tropical cyclones are expected to enter/develop in the PAR from October 2021 – March 2022. PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the climate conditions that may affect the country and updates/advisories shall be issued as appropriate.

Tentative schedule of next CF: 20 October 2021

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