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Climate Outlook October 2021 – March 2022

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Climate Outlook October 2021 – March 2022 140th Climate Forum 22 September 2021 CLIMATE OUTLOOK OCTOBER 2021 – MARCH 2022 Prepared by: PAGASA-DOST Climatology & Agrometeorology Division (CAD) Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS) Presenter: Rusy G. Abastillas Senior Weather Specialist, CAD-CLIMPS ENSO STATUS Climate Outlook (OCTOBER 2021 – MARCH 2022) Summary In the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were near- to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and were above average in the western Pacific Ocean. Conditions in the Tropical Pacific Ocean As of 20 September 2021: Negative subsurface temperature anomalies persisted into March 2021. From mid-March to early July 2021, subsurface temperature was above average. Since mid-May 2021, positive temperature anomalies have weakened. Negative anomalies strengthened in July and again in mid-September. Source: NOAA CPC 5 Model Predictions of ENSO from Sep 2021 Most of the models in the set of dynamical and statistical model predictions issued during mid- September 2021 show below-average SST conditions likely to cool further in coming months. During the Sep-Nov through Dec-Feb seasons, La Niña conditions are favored over ENSO-neutral. For Jan-Mar, the odds are more equal. This re-emergence of La Niña is predicted to potentially persist long enough to constitute a La Niña event. SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ Average, Dynamical models -0.63 -0.78 -0.84 -0.75 -0.57 -0.39 -0.24 0.01 0.12 Average, Statistical models -0.62 -0.63 -0.62 -0.55 -0.47 -0.33 -0.2 -0.11 -0.04 Average, All models -0.63 -0.74 -0.78 -0.7 -0.54 -0.37 -0.22 -0.04 0.04 6 The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts a transition to La Niña in in the next month and La Niña to continue through fall and winter 2021-22. Model + Expert Judgement Purely Model Output Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the ONI computed using ERSST.v5 Recent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 ºC for the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)]. For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons. The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods. The complete table going back to DJF 1950 can be found here. • ENSO Alert System Status: La Nina Alert A transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the coming months; There is a 70-80% chance of La Niña forming in the last quarter of 2021 which may persist until the first quarter of 2022. WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MAY AFFECT THE COUNTRY October 2021 – March 2022 RIDGE OF HIGH INTER-TROPICAL EASTERLIES PRESSURE AREAS (HPAs) THUNDERSTORMS CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) LOW PRESSURE AREAS (LPAs) TROPICAL CYCLONES NORTHEAST TAIL-END OF THE MONSOON FRONTAL SYSTEM *Transition to NE (Oct) Understanding our Rainfall Maps.. PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION Less than or = 40 way below normal 41 – 80 below normal 81 – 120 near normal Greater than 120 above normal OCTOBER 2021 Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal used in the maps was the results of the initial calculations. Data will be recalculated once the official normal is released. way below normal below normal near normal above normal 0 0 34 49 NOVEMBER 2021 Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal used in the maps was the results of the initial calculations. Data will be recalculated once the official normal is released. way below normal below normal near normal above normal 0 0 32 51 DECEMBER 2021 Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal used in the maps was the results of the initial calculations. Data will be recalculated once the official normal is released. way below normal below normal near normal above normal 0 0 58 25 JANUARY 2022 Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal used in the maps was the results of the initial calculations. Data will be recalculated once the official normal is released. way below normal below normal near normal above normal 0 8 28 48 FEBRUARY 2022 Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal used in the maps was the results of the initial calculations. Data will be recalculated once the official normal is released. way below normal below normal near normal above normal 1 7 19 56 MARCH 2022 Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal used in the maps was the results of the initial calculations. Data will be recalculated once the official normal is released. way below normal below normal near normal above normal 3 7 27 46 FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal (October 2021 - March 2022) as of Sep 22, 2021 PROVINCE OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH PROVINCE OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH PROVINCE OCTOBERNOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA) CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 117.4 127.5 117.5 155.4 114.6 170.4 ABRA 114.1 97.5 95.5 67.8 52.6 35.9 MARINDUQUE 144.3 132.6 124.6 122.9 131.1 109.7 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 114.1 127.7 113.3 155.3 118.7 170.8 BENGUET 88.2 115.1 85.3 89.8 91.1 75.8 OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 144.0 140.0 124.8 115.2 109.4 83.4 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 113.7 128.3 114.0 157.5 119.1 168.0 IFUGAO 118.3 117.5 116.4 98.5 116.2 79.5 ORIENTAL MINDORO 142.5 137.1 127.1 120.0 115.0 87.7 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO) KALINGA 114.3 112.5 118.5 104.2 98.1 71.7 ROMBLON 138.3 133.2 121.5 135.4 126.0 116.5 BUKIDNON 114.1 128.2 115.3 112.9 136.0 145.3 APAYAO 111.7 107.5 109.6 95.0 71.6 66.4 PALAWAN 124.2 137.8 140.1 113.5 114.2 103.8 CAMIGUIN 120.0 121.5 107.4 129.7 139.6 153.9 MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 116.3 115.7 112.5 95.0 99.5 67.5 SPRATLY ISLANDS 143.7 132.5 133.0 98.2 110.1 89.5 REGION I REGION V (BICOL) LANAO DEL NORTE 113.9 124.3 111.9 135.2 133.3 168.6 ILOCOS NORTE 118.0 80.3 92.6 61.3 32.1 30.7 ALBAY 142.0 130.0 111.9 132.8 131.7 117.6 MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 116.8 124.7 116.0 144.3 120.6 174.2 ILOCOS SUR 102.4 95.8 87.7 63.5 50.9 31.3 CAMARINES NORTE 143.3 131.8 125.4 119.3 137.8 143.7 MISAMIS ORIENTAL 117.3 122.1 110.6 122.9 142.9 151.4 LA UNION 91.0 133.0 83.3 79.0 71.0 56.7 CAMARINES SUR 146.9 119.5 111.5 125.8 132.2 133.3 REGION XI (DAVAO REGION) PANGASINAN 128.5 135.3 92.6 65.2 79.0 92.5 CATANDUANES 133.0 136.9 118.0 137.3 141.9 131.9 DAVAO DE ORO 111.5 135.3 109.7 114.6 132.2 141.3 REGION II MASBATE 147.9 123.9 125.1 132.0 152.5 125.9 DAVAO CITY 105.0 85.6 112.3 102.3 115.9 121.3 BATANES 120.8 122.7 105.0 108.9 121.3 87.1 SORSOGON 143.9 119.8 120.6 130.3 144.3 128.2 DAVAO DEL NORTE 105.6 97.5 110.7 106.8 124.3 130.1 DAVAO DEL SUR 116.1 118.9 109.9 104.3 123.4 135.8 CAGAYAN 109.1 111.5 122.8 125.6 106.2 93.3 REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS) DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 119.6 127.7 107.1 107.7 133.5 149.5 ISABELA 123.6 118.1 139.1 120.3 140.0 98.0 AKLAN 120.8 123.6 119.9 128.1 118.1 119.2 DAVAO ORIENTAL 118.4 133.0 109.0 115.5 132.0 144.9 NUEVA VIZCAYA 121.2 114.1 106.7 98.9 116.3 102.3 ANTIQUE 125.4 135.4 126.3 123.0 122.5 116.5 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN) QUIRINO 134.4 128.8 129.2 110.2 135.8 106.1 CAPIZ 112.6 119.9 117.8 129.1 127.5 129.0 SOUTH COTABATO 119.0 131.7 105.5 112.8 134.9 159.3 REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) GUIMARAS 125.4 136.9 125.7 126.2 145.5 138.8 COTABATO 112.5 118.8 108.4 114.4 126.4 151.7 BATAAN 161.9 98.0 101.4 91.3 90.8 97.7 ILOILO 120.1 128.8 122.6 124.5 136.8 131.1 SARANGANI 120.8 132.5 105.5 110.4 136.8 157.2 BULACAN 130.4 111.7 125.7 104.2 101.2 109.5 NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 123.0 126.7 120.4 144.7 138.1 149.5 NUEVA ECIJA 125.6 117.5 100.3 81.2 93.2 110.1 SULTAN KUDARAT 114.0 126.1 105.3 122.4 130.4 164.4 REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS) PAMPANGA 140.4 94.2 100.0 78.9 76.8 116.5 REGION XIII- CARAGA NEGROS ORIENTAL 114.8 133.6 118.7 139.9 123.9 167.2 TARLAC 141.3 108.8 93.5 57.0 78.5 110.2 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 122.7 115.0 100.7 124.2 132.3 147.3 ZAMBALES 163.6 115.4 96.8 49.3 90.2 100.2 BOHOL 123.5 122.2 109.4 140.4 145.8 160.9 AGUSAN DEL SUR 121.7 118.6 104.8 116.8 128.8 144.1 AURORA 136.6 103.8 126.7 114.0 126.8 108.2 CEBU 117.8 133.7 113.6 141.8 146.6 157.2 DINAGAT ISLANDS 125.7 118.0 100.3 126.1 138.1 138.2 NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION SIQUIJOR 111.5 134.1 115.7 137.0 121.6 176.9 SURIGAO DEL NORTE 124.9 118.0 97.5 125.5 133.4 138.5 METRO MANILA 146.1 148.3 134.9 136.5 110.2 85.9 REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS) SURIGAO DEL SUR 124.3 114.1 98.8 121.3 127.2 144.5 REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) BILIRAN 130.8 123.5 115.4 125.3 151.0 134.9 BARMM BATANGAS 152.8 134.1 132.9 129.3 135.8 85.4 EASTERN SAMAR 126.2 126.4 115.2 121.8 129.6 134.5 BASILAN 114.8 131.8 112.2 165.2 120.7 161.3 CAVITE 159.6 140.7 130.1 135.9 127.8 73.9 LEYTE 127.3 103.9 109.4 130.4 151.1 140.2 MAGUINDANAO 109.1 123.7 103.8 128.0 130.7 174.5 LAGUNA 152.3 155.4 132.5 133.1 136.5 97.7 NORTHERN SAMAR 145.9 116.6 118.5 119.8 138.0 135.8 LANAO DEL SUR 112.7 123.2 110.0 128.1 135.6 167.0 RIZAL 143.7 214.5 136.9 129.9 124.4 95.4 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 128.9 122.8 115.1 120.7 138.7 133.8 SULU 112.7 125.3 118.7 149.3 125.4 151.2 QUEZON 141.4 129.2 127.4 120.6 134.8 114.9 SOUTHERN LEYTE 137.5 117.0 104.6 133.2 140.0 146.9 TAWI-TAWI
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