SEPTEMBER China’s Arrival: 2009 A Strategic Framework for a Global Relationship Edited by Abraham Denmark and Nirav Patel Contributing Authors: Linton Brooks, Joshua W. Busby, Abraham M. Denmark, Lindsey Ford, Michael J. Green, G. John Ikenberry, Robert D. Kaplan, Nirav Patel, Daniel Twining, Richard Weitz Acknowledgements We would like to thank our colleagues at the Center for a New American Security for their helpful comments and excellent suggestions throughout the research and writing of this report. Research assistants Michael Zubrow, Zachary Hosford, and Joseph S. Nye, Jr. National Security Intern Micah Springut, provided fine research and editing support. Whitney Parker’s creativity and assistance in the publication process was indispensable and helped take this final product from text to reality. Over the course of the past several years we have had the good fortune to meet and interact with many capable and impressive Asia hands at various conferences, seminars, and meetings in Washington and across the Asia-Pacific region. We only hope that we can offer to them the level of hospitality and openness that they extended to us as CNAS continues its work and outreach in Asia. We would also like to acknowledge the American friends, experts, and government officials, both former and current, who offered their valuable insights and critiques, including Dr. Michael Green, Dr. John Ikenberry, Ambassador Linton Brooks, Robert Kaplan, Dr. Richard Weitz, Dr. Joshua Busby, Dan Twining, Lindsey Ford, Dr. James Miller, Dr. Evan Medeiros, Admiral Michael McDevitt, Ralph Cossa, the Honorable James Kelly, Randy Schriver, Dr. Victor Cha, Dr. Patrick Cronin, Sharon Burke, Robert Scher, Derek Mitchell, and most importantly Dr. Kurt M. Campbell. Kurt has been an inspiration to hundreds of Asia and national security scholars — ourselves included — and his energy and commitment to enhancing American engagement in Asia is impressive and humbling. Of course, we alone are responsible for any errors or omissions. Cover Image The Gates to the Forbidden City. TABLE OF CONTENts Acknowledgements Chapter V: Asian Regionalism and the Future 95 Introduction: The Strategic Environment 3 of U.S. Strategic Engagement with China of U.S.-Sino Relations By Dr. G. John Ikenberry By Nirav Patel Chapter VI: Power and Norms in U.S. Asia Strategy: 109 Chapter I: The Need for Power: Implications 19 Constructing an Ideational Architecture of Chinese Energy Security and Climate to Encourage China’s Peaceful Rise Change Policies for Sino-American Relations By Dr. Michael J. Green and Daniel Twining By Dr. Joshua W. Busby Chapter VII: 21st Century Strategy with 137 Chapter II: China’s Two-Ocean Strategy 43 19th Century Institutions: By Robert D. Kaplan The Challenge of Bureaucracies Chapter III: The Sino-American Nuclear Balance: 59 in the U.S.-China Relationship Its Future and Implications By Lindsey Ford By Ambassador Linton Brooks Chapter VIII: China’s Arrival: A Framework 157 Chapter IV: Understanding China’s Evolving 77 for a Global Relationship Role in Global Security Challenges By Abraham M. Denmark By Dr. Richard Weitz SEPTEMBER 2009 China’s Arrival: A Strategic Framework for a Global Relationship Edited by Abraham Denmark and Nirav Patel Contributing Authors: Linton Brooks, Joshua W. Busby, Abraham M. Denmark, Lindsey Ford, Michael J. Green, G. John Ikenberry, Robert D. Kaplan, Nirav Patel, Daniel Twining, Richard Weitz China’s Arrival: SEPTEMBER 2009 A Strategic Framework for a Global Relationship About the Authors Ambassador Linton Brooks is an independent national security consultant and the former Director of the National Nuclear Security Administration. Dr. Joshua W. Busby is an Assistant Professor of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin. Abraham M. Denmark is a Fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Lindsey Ford is currently employed by the U.S. Department of Defense. Her chapter was written when she was a Research Associate at the Center for a New American Security. The views expressed in no way represent those of the United States government or any of its departments or agencies. Dr. Michael J. Green is a Senior Adviser and the Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, as well as an Associate Professor of International Relations at Georgetown University. Dr. G. John Ikenberry is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs in the Department of Politics and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University. Robert D. Kaplan is a Senior Fellow at the Center for a New America Security, and a Contributing Editor for The Atlantic Monthly. Nirav Patel is a Fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Daniel Twining is the Senior Fellow for Asia at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). Dr. Richard Weitz is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute. 2 | INTRODUCTION: THE Strategic ENVirOnment OF U.S.-SinO RelatiOns By Nirav Patel China’s Arrival: SEPTEMBER 2009 A Strategic Framework for a Global Relationship “ The relationship between the United States and China will shape the 21st century, which makes it as important as any bilateral relationship in the world. That really must underpin our partnership. That is the responsibility that together we bear.” — President Barack Obama, July 2009 1 THE Strategic ENVIRONMENT Introduction Of U.S.-SINO RelatiONS China’s rise is one of the most significant geopoliti- cal events in modern history, rivaling America’s ascent more than a century before. Leading news- papers and blogs from around the world provide a daily reminder of a growing international demand to engage Beijing on a variety of major global issues, including proliferation, energy security, climate change, and the global financial crisis. However, the world is also reminded of the under- side of China’s ascent, manifested in its support for despotic regimes, its military modernization efforts, and its repressive treatment of its citizens. Still, the international financial crisis that origi- nated in the West has only accelerated China’s arrival as a global player. As most of the indus- trialized world struggles to post neutral growth figures, China maintains that it will achieve eight percent growth in 2009 and continues to find opportunities to convert its economic strength into influence. 2 By Nirav Patel In the view of top American officials, the U.S.- China relationship holds the keys to addressing some of the most pressing challenges of the modern epoch. 3 At the Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) between the two nations this summer, President Obama said the U.S.-China bilateral relationship was “as important as any other bilateral relationship in the world.” The United States and China are simply too big to not work together and both sides are prepared for a future of growing interdependency and mutual engagement. At the same time, relations with China are defined by a mix of opportunity and challenges. Despite Beijing’s growing confidence, China is still coming into its own on the international stage. It has yet to resolve numerous domestic and international challenges, even as it makes incremental progress in some areas. China and the United States are openly cognizant of disagreements that continue PLA soldiers observe fireworks during the Opening Ceremony of the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing, China. to animate Sino-U.S. relations. Disagreements have | 5 China’s Arrival: SEPTEMBER 2009 A Strategic Framework for a Global Relationship derailed relations in the past and have the potential come out. If it comes out badly, this is bad for us; if to do so again in the future. Yet, while “it is tempt- it comes out well, it can benefit all of us. And that’s ing to focus our attention on the tensions and what we should dedicate ourselves to.” 6 The thrust perils of our interdependence,” Secretary Clinton of American policy towards China since the Cold noted, “…I prefer to view our connectedness as an War has been to foster Beijing’s integration into the opportunity for dynamic and productive partner- international system, not to take steps that would ships that can address both the challenge and the isolate China and ensure the negative outcomes promise of this new century.” 4 To accomplish its some fear. goals, the United States will have to be strategic and proactive in how it engages China. A few Second, the Obama administration should con- points are in order about how this must be done: tinue to remain cautious about strategies that seek to outsource China policy to unwieldy multilateral organizations — including burgeoning regional “As most of the fora — that do not necessarily harbor American interests as core strategic values. 7 Policy mak- industrialized world ers must avoid giving in to American attitudes of weakness and retrenchment that myopically view struggles to post neutral a multipolar world as zero-sum with American leadership and power. It is particularly important growth figures, China that decision makers in Washington reject neo- maintains that it will isolationist tendencies that have become more pronounced in the wake of the financial crisis. achieve eight percent However, this does not mean that the United States abdicates involvement in regional groupings. In growth in 2009 and fact, America’s active involvement will remain continues to find vital to how many of these organizations develop, including the East Asia Summit (EAS) and Asia- opportunities to convert Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). its economic strength Third, the U.S.-Chinese relationship should not be treated as the only element of America’s strate- into influence.” gic engagement in the Asia-Pacific. Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Australia — American allies and friends with shared values and strategic inter- First, China should not be treated as a threat.