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The Strategic Choices for Australia in the Australia-United States-China Triangular Relationship: National Interests Perspectives

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The Strategic Choices for Australia in the Australia-United States-China Triangular Relationship: National Interests Perspectives ♁ 國立中山大學中國與亞太區域研究所 博士論文 澳大利亞在澳美中三角關係的戰略選擇：國家利益因素分析 The strategic choices for Australia in the Australia-United States-China triangular relationship: national interests perspectives 研究生：謝仁和 撰 指導教授：林文程 博士 中華民國 九十八 年 六 月 獻給 父親與母親 誌 謝 來到高雄服務是種機緣，寬廣的空間與炙熱的豔陽，迴異經常飄雨多 雲、空間有限的台北。撰寫此論文又是另外一種機緣，讓我得以出現在澳 大利亞的雪梨以及坎培拉，於收集資料之際也體驗著當地無垠空間的人文 與景緻。 此論文能夠順利完成，最感謝指導教授林文程博士費心指導，在其公 務繁忙之際仍鉅細靡遺地就論文架構、內容與方向給予指正，讓我能在此 領域有所學習與發展。對所有論文審查委員亦致最深謝忱，你們的肯切批 評與寶貴建議是論文完善的最佳良方。對於亞太所林德昌所長、周世雄教 授、顧長永教授、鄧學良教授以及張顯超教授的指導與關心，亦銘感五內。 同學當中，甦成姊與瀚宇兄一馬當先，盈貴兄、家平兄、清賢兄繼之，還 有蒂玲等都是學習與砥礪的好夥伴，很榮幸能夠在南台灣建立並共享同窗 情誼。 此外，相當感激文藻外語學院李文瑞校長、斐德修女與校系內諸多同 事們的關心與支持，提供一個在服務之餘，亦能進修的良好園地；感謝台 大蔡政文教授、趙永茂教授、林水波教授在過程中的關懷與指導，這些是 我能持續完成進修的重要動力。謝謝文生兄、鈞池兄、戊龍兄、德君兄的 扶持與鼓勵，特別謝謝聖斐經常三更半夜與我在網路上相遇之際的鼓勵與 協助，並就我的論文給予許多建議。 文藻外語學院圖書館同仁、中山大學亞太所千宜、前雪梨辦事處領事 舒俞敬先生，都是重要的幕後幫手，謹致感謝之意。 家人的支持是無價的，也是最難以用言語來表達感激之意。謝謝台北 兄嫂姐照顧年長的父親，也謝謝岳母與二姐全家於高雄就近照應與支援。 來到南台灣之後，從就讀博士班到畢業，兩個可愛的女兒也從娃娃到了上 小學的年紀，她們銀鈴般加油聲的陪伴永遠刻劃在腦海。最後但也是最深 刻地，感謝秀紅承擔著家事以及照顧女兒的責任，牽手之情永誌難忘。 學業告一段落亦代表另一階段的開始，勇敢接受挑戰亦期盼著平安與 順遂的未來。 2009 年 6 月於高雄 摘 要 二次戰後，美國透過雙邊同盟在亞太地區架設扇形戰略傘，以美國為中心， 北起日本、南韓，南至菲律賓、泰國與澳大利亞與紐西蘭，目的在落實對共產主 義的圍堵，確保美國在亞太地區的利益與美國國土的安全。至蘇聯瓦解、冷戰結 束，美國在亞太地區的扇形戰略仍然存在，但卻逐漸受到中國的挑戰。 澳大利亞是美國扇形戰略架構的一個環節，與其他國家有顯著的差異性，因 為澳大利亞是一個位處亞太地區的西方國家，且土地廣裘人口稀少，土地面積排 名世界第六，擁有豐富農礦資源，人口卻僅約 2100 萬，對外貿易是其經濟發展 的重要命脈。中國在改革開放過程中，積極發展經濟，憑藉其廣大的人口與市場， 在亞太地區的影響力日昇。2007 年中國成為澳大利亞最重要貿易夥伴，也使得 中國在澳大利亞幾乎成為亞洲的代名詞。澳大利亞在澳中關係尋求經貿利益的同 時，其與美國的軍事同盟關係也開始受到影響。 在本論文中，「戰略三角」的觀念架構被用以觀察澳美中三角關係在不同時 期的變化情形，「國家利益」的層次性探討則被用以瞭解澳大利亞在澳美關係與 澳中關係發展的重要性。因此，本論文首先探討澳大利亞國家利益內涵與對外政 策，而後針對美中、澳美、澳中三個雙邊關係進行探討。本研究試著從美中關係 的演變觀察其對澳大利亞戰略選擇的影響，並從澳美關係內涵瞭解澳大利亞的戰 略選擇思考，同樣地，亦從澳中關係內涵去觀察澳大利亞的戰略選擇思考。最後， 本論文探討澳大利亞歷來的戰略選項，基於其國家利益，在澳美中關係下的戰略 選擇。澳大利亞的戰略選擇亦可由澳美中三角的變化來探究其意義。 關鍵字： 澳大利亞、國家利益、戰略選擇、戰略三角、澳美關係、澳中關係 i Abstract The U.S. has been building the security umbrella in Asia-Pacific after the World War II, from Japan and South Korea in the north, to Philippine, Thailand, Australia and New Zealand in the south, to protect its homeland security and interests in Asia-Pacific from communist threat like Communist China. When the Cold War ended which saw the decline of USSR as a world power, the U.S. security umbrella continues but it now faces a new challenge posed by the rise of China. While Australia is part of the security umbrella of U.S., it is quite different from Japan, South Korea, Philippine and Thailand. Australia is a state with cultures and values similar to the West but is geographically located in Asia-Pacific. It has huge territory that ranks top 6 in the world but sparsely populated with only around twenty one million people. Trade contributes significantly to its economic development due to its relatively small population and abundant resources. China’s influence is rising after its economic reform. China has been the most important trade partner of Australia since 2007. However, when Australia seeks a wider bilateral interaction with China, it is expected that this will have an impact on the Australia-United States bilateral relations. The concept of a “Strategic Triangle” has been used in this dissertation to observe the changes of the Australia-United States-China relationship in different stages. The national interests approach is applied to interpret the importance of relationships of Australia-United States and Australia-China to Australia. Therefore, the contents of Australia’s national interests and Australia’s foreign policies are explored first. Then, the bilateral relationship between U.S.-China is examined for its impacts on Australia’s choices between U.S. and China. The Australia-U.S. relationship and Australia-China relationship are also examined respectively to understand the rationale behind Australia’s approach toward U.S. and China. Finally, Australia’s strategies are reviewed and the possible strategic choices for Australia are discussed. The strategic choices made by Australia could be interpreted from the Australia-U.S.-China triangular relationship. Keywords: Australia, national interest, strategic choice, strategic triangle, Australia-U.S. relationship, Australia-China relationship ii 澳大利亞在澳美中三角關係的戰略選擇： 國家利益因素分析 目 錄 第一章 緒論 …………………………………………………… 1 第一節 研究背景與目的 ……………………………… 1 第二節 文獻檢討 ……………………………………… 5 第三節 研究途徑與方法 ……………………………… 16 第四節 研究範圍與章節安排 ………………………… 27 第二章 澳大利亞國家利益及對外政策 ……………………… 29 第一節 地緣國家認同與對外政策 …………………… 29 第二節 國家安全利益與對外政策 …………………… 32 第三節 國家經貿利益與對外政策 …………………… 41 第四節 價值觀與對外政策 …………………………… 46 第三章 美國與中國關係 ……………………………………… 53 第一節 冷戰時期（1949-1989） ……………………… 53 第二節 後冷戰時期（1989-2001） …………………… 62 第三節 反恐時期（2001-2008） ……………………… 76 第四節 美中關係演變與澳美中三角 …………………… 85 第四章 澳大利亞與美國關係 ………………………………… 91 第一節 澳大利亞對美政策概論 ………………………… 91 第二節 澳大利亞與美國的政軍關係 …………………… 98 第三節 澳大利亞與美國的經貿關係 …………………… 109 第四節 影響澳美關係之因素 …………………………… 125 第五節 澳美關係下的澳大利亞戰略選擇思考 ………… 134 第五章 澳大利亞與中國關係 ………………………………… 137 第一節 澳大利亞中國政策概論 ……………………… 137 第二節 冷戰後的澳中關係 …………………………… 144 第三節 澳大利亞與中國的經貿關係 ………………… 157 iii 第四節 影響澳中關係之因素 ………………………… 172 第五節 澳中關係下的澳大利亞戰略選擇思考………… 175 第六章 澳大利亞的戰略選擇 ………………………………… 179 第一節 澳大利亞歷來戰略選項與選擇 ……………… 179 第二節 澳美中三角關係下的澳大利亞國家利益 …… 194 第三節 澳大利亞在澳美中三角的戰略選擇 ………… 199 第七章 結論 …………………………………………………… 205 參考資料 ………………………………………………………… 217 附件一：澳大利亞歷任總理一覽表 …………………………… 241 附件二：澳大利亞歷任外交部長一覽表 ……………………… 243 附件三：澳紐美安全條約 ……………………………………… 245 附件四：訪談資料 ……………………………………………… 249 iv 圖表目錄 圖 1-1： Lowell Dittmer 戰略三角類型 …………………………… 21 圖 1-2： 戰略三角行為者的角色 …………………………………… 22 表 1-1： 澳大利亞可否在美中之間不選邊的觀點 ………………… 9 表 1-2： 國內對澳大利亞對外關係研究文獻一覽表 ……………… 11 表 1-3： 國內博碩論文對澳大利亞對外關係研究文獻一覽表 …… 12 表 1-4： 中國對澳大利亞對外關係研究文獻一覽表 ……………… 14 表 2-1： 澳大利亞貿易依存度 …………………………………… 43 表 3-1： 1971 年以前中共對外貿易統計 ………………………… 59 表 4-1： 澳大利亞對美國商品出口依存度 ………………………… 111 表 4-2： 2005-2007 年澳美貿易依存度 ……………………………… 111 表 4-3： 2001-2007 年澳美相互投資情形 ………………………… 113 表 5-1： 澳中人權對話議題項目 …………………………………… 152 表 5-2： 澳大利亞對中國商品貿易依存度 ………………………… 158 表 5-3： 澳大利亞對中國商品出口依存度 ………………………… 158 表 5-4： 2005-2007 年澳中貿易依存度 …………………………… 161 表 5-5： 2001-2007 年澳中相互投資情形 ………………………… 162 表 6-1： 澳大利亞與美中雙邊經貿投資排名比較表 ……………… 197 v vi 第一章 緒 論 第一節 研究背景與目的 一、研究背景 亞太區域安全結構是冷戰時代自由世界圍堵共產世界的歷史產物。冷戰結 束後，這樣的區域安全結構，依舊是區域中的主要國家之間互動時不可忽視的 結構環境。 二次世界大戰結束後，美國成為維繫自由世界的霸主。其戰略部署模式主 要有集體防衛與國與國雙邊同盟關係兩種。就亞太區域戰略觀察，區域內的美 國透過國與國雙邊同盟關係之建立，在冷戰時期架構起扇形戰略傘，以美國為 中心，北起日本、南韓、菲律賓、泰國，南至澳大利亞，建立雙邊同盟體系， 其目的主要是落實對共產勢力的圍堵政策，以確保美國在亞太地區的利益以及 美國國土的安全。至 1991 年底蘇聯瓦解、冷戰結束，美國在亞太地區的扇形戰 略傘架構仍在，但卻逐漸受到中國崛起的挑戰。 共產中國成立後，由於對美國的不信任，以及在意識型態上與蘇聯具有同 質性，採取對蘇聯「一面倒」政策，簽訂「中蘇友好同盟條約」，希望借蘇聯 之力爭取對共產中國的支持。中國對於美國的圍堵與孤立，運用和平攻勢提出 「和平共處五原則」爭取亞非國家的支持。中蘇分裂後，中國與美國關係漸漸 改善並建立外交關係，此對美國在亞洲的民主盟國產生相當大的效用，紛紛與 中國改善與建立關係，孤立情勢雖獲得改善，但美國架構的圍堵仍然存在。 美國在亞太地區鋪設的扇形架構中，日本、南韓、菲律賓與泰國均屬於典 型具有亞洲文化的國家，惟一特例的是澳大利亞與紐西蘭。 澳大利亞與紐西蘭，原屬英國殖民地，現在仍是大英國協的一員，具有濃 厚的歐洲色彩與西方價值觀。澳大利亞於二次大戰期間積極配合美國在太平洋 地區的戰局發展，戰後亦與美國緊密聯合簽訂「澳紐美安全條約」(Australia- 1 New Zealand-United States Treaty, ANZUS Treaty)，且自我定位為「位處亞太地 區的西方國家」。1從地緣經濟角度觀察，澳大利亞土地面積是排名世界第六， 擁有豐富的農礦資源，特別是鈾礦藏量佔世界總藏量的 40%，2惟澳大利亞人口 相對極少，將近 2100 萬人，單靠國內需求並無法提振澳大利亞的經濟發展，對 外貿易成為澳大利亞經濟的重要命脈。 而中國在改革開放過程中，積極發展經濟，憑藉著其廣大的人口與市場， 在亞太地區的影響力日昇，2007 年是全球第 4 大經濟體、第 3 大貿易國家；3 2008 年成為全球第 3 大經濟體。4在 2003 年，中國已經超越美國，成為澳大利 亞商品出口的第 2 大市場，2007 年超越日本成為澳大利亞第一大貿易夥伴，5使 得中國在澳大利亞幾乎成為亞洲的代名詞。也因為澳大利亞在澳中經貿緊密發 展過程尋求獲取經貿利益的同時，有可能也會影響澳大利亞與美國之間軍事同 盟關係。近年來有許多事件備受大眾矚目，作為關心澳美中三角關係的發展。 例如：2005 年中國通過反分裂國家法時，當時的澳大利亞外交部長 Alexander Downer 針對如果美國與中國因台灣爆發衝突時，澳大利亞是否啟動「澳紐美安 全條約」的作法，Downer 並不願意表示堅決協助美國進行參戰的決心。6再 者，澳大利亞政府對中國在 1996 於台灣南北兩端水域發射飛彈事件，與美國同 步予以譴責，中國則對澳大利亞的譴責採取中斷經貿往來予以對抗，且深知澳 大利亞需要中國龐大市場的利益，乃透過亞太經濟合作會議(APEC)領袖會議重 修雙方關係。而 2005 年中國駐雪梨政治參事陳用林，在尋求澳大利亞政治庇護 1 Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Advancing the National Interest: Australia’s Foreign and Trade Policy White Paper 2003 (Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia, 2003), pp.vii-viii. 2 Ian Lambert, Subhash Jaireth, Aden McKay and Yanis Miezitis, “Why Australia has so much uranium,” AusGeo News, No. 80 (December 2005). http://www.ga.gov.au/ausgeonews/ausgeonews200512/uranium.jsp 3 2007 年中國的 GDP 規模次於美國、日本、德國，貿易規模次於美國、德國。參考 WTO, Trade Profiles 2008 (Geneva: the WTO Secretariat 2008), pp.38, 68, 89, 177. 4 2008 年中國的 GDP 規模僅次於美國與日本，但是按照購買力平價指數(Purchasing Power Parities, PPP)換算後，中國的 GDP 規模僅次於美國，是世界第二大。參考 IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2009. 5 2007 年澳中貿易總額 580.32 億澳幣，占澳大利亞貿易總額的 12.9%；澳日貿易總額 545.51 億 澳幣，占澳大利亞貿易總額的 12.1%。參閱 Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australia’s Trade with the East Asia 2007 (Canberra: Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, 2008), p.14. 6 “澳外長就澳新美軍事條約澄清立場”，BBC 中文網，2005 年 3 月 14 日， http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/trad/hi/newsid_4340000/newsid_4348000/4348029.stm 2 過程中，揭露了中國欲使澳大利亞變成法國第二的意圖。7 美國對於澳大利亞趨附中國的行為也相當擔心，但是澳大利亞 John Howard 政府認為澳大利亞可以因應中國的崛起，因為中國必會融入由美國所主 導的全球以及亞太秩序，中美最終必須合作，澳大利亞也就不必在雙方之間進 行選擇。 8不過許多學者並不覺得如此樂觀，澳大利亞學者 Hugh White 就提到 今日中美雙方互視為戰略競爭者，是一種零和遊戲的關係，9 要從競爭關係轉到 合作關係並不容易。William Tow 則分析中美雙方雖然都對澳大利亞施加拉攏力 道，然而當中美戰略競爭情勢昇高，不管是對台灣議題或是對亞太地區議題， 中美雙方都不會允許澳大利亞採取差異性的交往政策。10 本研究的背景與動機即基於此，即中國藉由澳大利亞意欲發展的國家經濟 利益，透過經貿外交利益的給予並積極佈局澳大利亞國內的政界與輿論，意圖 改變澳大利亞成為對抗美國的要角，諸如亞太經濟合作會議、東南亞國協，也 是中國切入連結澳大利亞、與美國對抗的大舞台。美國在亞太地區的戰略則視 澳大利亞為其在亞洲前沿的佈局之一，美澳雙方雖然在農業經濟利益方面有衝 突之處，但在雙方既有不對等的軍事同盟關係架構下，經濟利益衝突多被壓制 下來。11只是當中國成為澳大利亞的最主要經貿夥伴之後，美澳之間整體架構 是否會改變，朝向美國與加拿大之間的經濟相互依賴、但非軍事同盟的關係發 展，甚至中國透過經貿力量影響美澳軍事同盟關係，美國對此會有怎樣的反 應，是否調整既定的戰略與政策，也著實值得進一步探究。世界上類似澳大利 亞這類「中等國家」(Middle power)為數不少，只是澳大利亞身處亞洲與西方之 邊緣，政治價值觀念雖與西方國家較相近，有自身面對東南亞以及中國等亞洲 國家的立即利益與交往壓力。因而採取「面向亞洲」(facing Asia)以及「開放性 7 Richard Bullivant, “Chinese Defectors Reveal Chinese Strategy and Agents in Australia,” National Observer (Spring, 2005), p.33. 8 John Howard, “The 2005 Lowy Lecture on Australia in the World,” Lowy Institute for International Policy, Sydney, 31 March, 2005, http://www.pm.gov.au/news/speeches/speech1290.html. 9 Hugh White, “The limits to optimism: Australia and the rise of China,” Australia Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 59, No.4 (December 2005),
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