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Proportional Representation in Theory and Practice the Australian Experience

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Proportional Representation in Theory and Practice the Australian Experience Proportional Representation in Theory and Practice The Australian Experience Glynn Evans Department of Politics and International Relations School of Social Sciences The University of Adelaide June 2019 Table of Contents Abstract ii Statement of Authorship iii Acknowledgements iv Preface vi 1. Introduction 1 2. District Magnitude, Proportionality and the Number of 30 Parties 3. District Magnitude and Partisan Advantage in the 57 Senate 4. District Magnitude and Partisan Advantage in Western 102 Australia 5. District Magnitude and Partisan Advantage in South Eastern Jurisdictions 132 6. Proportional Representation and Minor Parties: Some 170 Deviating Cases 7. Does Proportional Representation Favour 204 Independents? 8. Proportional Representation and Women – How Much 231 Help? 9. Conclusion 247 Bibliography 251 Appendices 260 i Abstract While all houses of Australian parliaments using proportional representation use the Single Transferable Vote arrangement, district magnitudes (the numbers of members elected per division) and requirements for casting a formal vote vary considerably. Early chapters of this thesis analyse election results in search for distinct patterns of proportionality, the numbers of effective parties and partisan advantage under different conditions. This thesis argues that while district magnitude remains the decisive factor in determining proportionality (the higher the magnitude, the more proportional the system), ballot paper numbering requirements play a more important role in determining the number of (especially) parliamentary parties. The general pattern is that, somewhat paradoxically, the more freedom voters have to choose their own preference allocations, or lack of them, the smaller the number of parliamentary parties. Even numbered magnitudes in general, and six member divisions in particular, provide some advantage to the Liberal and National Parties, while the Greens are disadvantaged in five member divisions as compared to six or seven member divisions. The latter number appears to be the lowest at which no major party group has a particular advantage over the others. Later chapters of the thesis examine rates of independent and female representation in PR-elected houses in comparison to the corresponding house in the same jurisdiction elected via a majoritarian system. It is argued that, contrary to the arguments of some observers; independent candidates have a better success record in single-member houses. Women tend to succeed more in PR-elected houses, (as feminist writers in particular have argued was likely to occur) but in some cases the differences become miniscule once the ability of PR systems to facilitate the election of minor parties (such as the Greens) that are more likely to select women is factored out of the equation. ii Statement of Authorship I certify that this work contains no material which has been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma in my name, in any university or other tertiary institution and, to the best of my knowledge and belief, contains no material previously published or written by another person, except where due reference has been made in the text. In addition, I certify that no part of this work will, in the future, be used in a submission in my name, for any other degree or diploma in any university or other tertiary institution without the prior approval of the University of Adelaide and where applicable, any partner institution responsible for the joint-award of this degree. I give permission for the digital version of my thesis to be made available on the web, via the University’s digital research repository, the Library Search and also through web search engines, unless permission has been granted by the University to restrict access for a period of time. I acknowledge the support I have received for my research through the provision of an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship. iii Acknowledgements Several people assisted me over the years that I have been writing this thesis to enable it to come to fruition. Most important have been my supervisors Clem Macintyre and Lisa Hill, who have continued to provide the necessary assistance in face of difficult personal circumstances. Particular credit is due to Lisa for her recent help in facilitating an office move and an improvement in computing facilities that has made completion so much easier. Shamira Barr provided valuable assistance by helping to fix building access problems that arose as a result of the move. And the team at Disability Services, and especially Karen Roberts, were instrumental in enabling me to access the necessary adaptive technology. Thanks Karen. Special credit is also due to (now retired) librarians Lucy Zuzolo and Margaret Hosking for their assistance with Endote referencing and tracking down sources. Margaret’s work in the latter area was above and beyond the call of duty. My long-time friend and mentor Malcolm Mackerras has assisted me in proofreading earlier drafts and making suggestions through both personal contact and his own work on the subject matter. Proofreading assistance was also provided by my mother Lee (who also assisted by providing page numbers and references in the finishing stages), Jo-ann Whalley and Paul Black. Paul is one of several friends who have sustained me emotionally over the years of writing this thesis. The others are Rod ‘Rocket’ Sonnenburg, Charles Hawker, Graham ‘Chapo’ Chapman, Marty Hamill and Chris Pitcher. There have also been many other people with whom I have had the pleasure of dining and/or drinking with over the years, and I thank you all, and especially to Bernd ‘Bernie’ Woysch, who assisted me in an hour of need over ten years ago. Thanks also to special female friends Dorothy Dunne, Alison Hodgetts and Eva Larsen. To Eva in particular, thank you for being part of my life: you have made me happier and emotionally richer. Somewhat unexpectedly, the decision by the Turnbull government’s to change the Senate voting system gave this thesis a boost when it was necessary. (Less happily the decision to withdrawal the blind pensioner and veteran subsidy for Great Southern Rail travel made my regular travel between Perth and Adelaide far more expensive.) And last, but by no means least, thanks to my extended family. To my parents Lee and Brian, whose support was always there, regardless of whether I was iv stationed in Adelaide or with them in Perth. Unfortunately Brian’s death in May 2017 means he will not be able to read this thesis, but I know he would be proud of me for completing it. Thanks also to my maternal grandparents, Neil and Catherine ‘Cassie’ Grosvenor. Unfortunately Neil died ten years before I was born, but I know he’d be pleased that one his grandchildren inherited his love of statistics. (These include cricket as well as election statistics.) Like Neil, Cassie and her middle daughter Lethne were keen cardplayers. Thank you both for your many years of competitive auction bridge that helped me become a more proficient player when I decided to take up contract bridge. Thanks to all my partners, teammates and opponents who have helped me to reach the cusp of (at submission time) Grand Master status. I’ll thank you all when I receive my Grand Master tray later this year. Thanks are also due to my paternal grandparents, John ‘Jack’ Evans and Lillian May ‘Marna’ Evans (nee Roberts), and the various aunties, uncles, cousins and friends who have been part of my life: you’ve all contributed in various ways. And especially to my best friend from high school days, Sydney-based Simon Mikulandra, who provided me with accommodation in that city over the last 20 years. This assistance was especially welcome in the early 2000s when I was in a more difficult financial position than I am now. In recent years this assistance has enabled me to carry out New South Wales and Queensland research. Thanks Simon. I enjoyed our June catch-up. Glynn Evans June 2019 v Preface A brief comment on the 2019 federal election At the time of the official campaign for the 2019 federal election, this thesis was in the final editing stage. At the end of that process, results are still not final for either the House of Representatives or (especially) the Senate. Consequently the thesis contains no analysis of the (likely) results. However it was considered appropriate that some comments about the 2019 election should be made on this page. The author was as surprised as any seasoned observer by the result in the House of Representatives, which saw the Morrison Government returned to office with a slim majority, in defiance of all major opinion polls. However this result had little impact on the findings of this thesis, beyond noting that the continued success of independents backs up some of the findings made in chapter seven. The Senate is at a much earlier stage of counting; with preference counts still the best part of a month away at time of submission. However the indicated likely results appear to be bearing out some of the claims made in this thesis. The suggestion that the new voting system is clearly having a reductive impact on the number of parliamentary parties, as this thesis had argued it would. The likely failure of Senator Derryn Hinch to hold his seat points to the difficulty independents have in winning seats under STV systems with above the line voting options. vi Chapter 1 Introduction: The Scope and Analysis of Proportional Representation The thesis will be the first exhaustive examination of Australian election results that have taken place under Single Transferable Vote (STV) systems of proportional representation. It aims to explain what general patterns, if any, exist under different types of STV systems used in Australia. Proportional Representation was first used in Tasmania in the early part of the twentieth century and has been used in many Australian elections over the past century.
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