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Survey of Recent Developments Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Vol. 39, No. 2, 2003: 133–56 SURVEY OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS Andrew MacIntyre and Budy P. Resosudarmo The Australian National University SUMMARY Indonesia continues to move forward, The overall macroeconomic picture albeit slowly. We see this as the defin- continues to improve. Year-on-year ing characteristic of the period under GDP growth of 3.4% recorded in the first review. There is continued macro- quarter of 2003 exceeded many expec- economic improvement, and a more vi- tations. Public debt is still declining as a able system of national government is percentage of GDP, interest rates and emerging. These developments help to inflation have also fallen and the curren- explain why the economy and the gov- cy has appreciated. And an important ernment were able in the first half of 2003 new state finance law lays an encourag- to weather without major disruption two ing foundation for gradual overhaul of potential international shocks (the Iraq the management of public finance. war and the SARS epidemic) and a slow- At the micro level the picture remains ing of the world economy. But serious troubling. Investment trends continue to problems persist and there seem to be be weak, progress in banking recovery systemic limits to the ability of policy is slow, the revised labour law contains makers to create an attractive investment only modest improvements from an in- environment. We see this mixed judg- vestor viewpoint and there are signs of ment—continued progress, but slowly— creeping protectionism. as a probable pointer to what lies ahead In the wider institutional environ- over the next several years. ment for business, even though the le- The electoral cycle is already heating gal system remains a void and much up in preparation for next year’s multi- uncertainty still surrounds the devolu- ple contests. Although not conducive to tion of power to regional governments, sound economic policy making, elector- important progress has been made in al politicking thus far shows little sign straightening out the basic structure and of seriously disturbing the economy. dynamics of government at the nation- Also creating remarkably few ripples is al level. With these changes now large- the growing recognition that Indonesia ly in place, we can begin to think is unlikely to renew its relationship with through the implications of the new the IMF at the end of 2003. Fortunately framework for economic policy and fu- too, thus far at least, Indonesia’s new war ture performance. in Aceh has not had significant econom- We see continued slow progress for ic repercussions. The response to the Bali Indonesia. In the short term this is satis- bombing is a modest boost to national factory. But over the longer term, a confidence. On the other hand, the out- 3–4% growth trajectory has worrying break of SARS in other parts of East Asia implications for unemployment, pover- has harmed inbound tourist travel. ty and social stability. ISSN 0007-4918 print/ISSN 1472-7234 online/03/020133-24 © 2003 Indonesia Project ANU 134 Andrew MacIntyre and Budy P. Resosudarmo POLITICS be presented with a choice of three tick- Indonesia’s next electoral cycle is al- ets in the first presidential run-off. ready heating up, even though legisla- The excitement at this early stage cen- tive and presidential elections do not tres on party leaders. Barring some take place until mid next year. Along- extraordinary circumstance, Megawati side continued bargaining over the re- has the leadership of PDI-P (the Indo- maining constitutional and electoral law nesian Democratic Party of Struggle) issues, the main game at this stage is locked up. The focus is thus on Golkar strategic pre-positioning by presidential (the government party under former aspirants. In an odd contrast with the president Soeharto), which, as the sec- attention to these early electoral ma- ond largest party, is the key swing play- noeuvres, the onset of formal military er: will it forge a coalition with PDI-P or action by government troops in Aceh not? This depends in part upon whom has had no major impact on the dynam- it chooses as party leader. In a little no- ics of national politics. On Aceh, politi- ticed irony of Indonesian politics, Golkar cal leaders seem largely to have adopted is emerging as one of the most internal- a nationalist insistence on the need to ly democratic parties. Under a schedule stamp out this challenge to the repub- adopted by the party, voting will take lic’s geographic integrity, even as it place this July in branches at district lev- seems also to be tacitly recognised that el across the country to identify a list of this will be an unhappy and protracted preferred candidates for party leader. business. Also interesting is the wide- This list will be narrowed to five candi- spread (and entirely justified) pride at dates in October with another round of the extraordinary progress the police voting at the provincial level. A nation- have made in pursuing the perpetrators al party convention in February 2004 of the Bali bombings. Although politi- will choose one candidate from the list cal leaders do not appear to have seen of five. electoral advantage in playing this up, Given this long lead-time, and given it is a development that helps to build that the PDI-P leadership is not open for international confidence in the strength contestation, all serious aspirants for the of the Indonesian polity. presidency (other than Megawati) need The electoral process is beginning ear- to be throwing their hats into the ring lier than in the past because of the new now. The names in circulation thus far rules for presidential elections. The re- for the Golkar leadership include incum- ality of a multiparty system, plus the bent party chair Akbar Tandjung, Co- requirement that parties nominate a can- ordinating Minister for People’s Welfare didate for both president and vice pres- Jusuf Kalla, Minister of Transport (and ident, is forcing coalitional deals to be former general) Agum Gumelar, Coor- made up front. Also shaping the game dinating Minister for Political and Se- is the likely new requirement (still to be curity Affairs (and former general) finalised in implementing laws) that Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, the Sultan only political parties which clear a sig- of Yogyakarta, businessman Abu Rizal nificant threshold in the legislative elec- Bakrie, media tycoon Surya Palo, and re- tions in April (probably 15–20% of the spected Muslim scholar Nurcholis vote) will be entitled to put forward a Madjid. presidential–vice presidential ticket. The Nurcholis declared his interest in the most likely scenario is that voters will presidency in May, and although he did Survey of Recent Developments 135 not specify his preferred party affilia- criticism by virtue of having held tion, most commentators see Golkar as ground the longest and, indeed, for hav- the only plausible option. A political ing strongly defended the price rises just ‘clean-skin’, his candidacy generated a before reversing course. Almost all po- flurry of excitement in the Jakarta me- litical parties have seen their support dia. Whether he can successfully navi- decline in public opinion polls (reflect- gate the real world of party preselection ing general unhappiness with the appar- processes is another matter. Tempered ently self-serving nature of national by discussions with players of various political life). But prominent political sorts, our best guess at this stage is that analyst Rizal Mallarangeng, comparing the person ultimately chosen as Golkar polling data from November 2002 and leader will be either Akbar Tandjung or February 2003, argues that public disil- Jusuf Kalla, with the latter slightly more lusionment is hitting Megawati and probable. The key to the contest between PDI-P most (Mallarangeng 2003). the two is likely to be Akbar’s legal fate In addition to this lengthy prepara- (following his corruption conviction in tory period for the elections in which September 2002 and ongoing appeal). In leading figures seek to position them- this regard, over the coming months selves for party leadership posts, the BIES readers may wish to be on the look- country also faces a long formal elector- out for reports on the decline or growth al season next year. Legislative elec- of a strategic alliance between Akbar tions—for the House of Representatives and PDI-P political czar (and presiden- (DPR), the new House of Regional Rep- tial spouse) Taufiq Kiemas. resentatives (DPD) and the provincial As electoral positioning intensifies and district legislatures (DPR-D)—will through this year, it is to be expected that take place on 5 April. Campaigning will economic policy debates will assume a then continue for the two-stage presi- more populist disposition. The most dential electoral process, with the first prominent manifestation of this during round ballot on 3 July and a second the first quarter of the year has been the round in September if (as is almost cer- emergence of the group known as Indo- tain) the first does not produce a major- nesia Bangkit (Indonesia Arises). This ity winner. The inauguration of the new loose coalition of some 35 economists president is expected to take place and other intellectuals under the lead- around 20 October. Between now and ership of the former economics coordi- then the political climate will be increas- nating minister, Rizal Ramli, has taken ingly inimical to market-friendly legis- a strong position on Indonesia’s relation- lative reform: leading lights in the ship with the IMF (we discuss this business community will be seeking reg- further below). Of more immediate con- ulatory favours in return for contribu- sequence was the dramatic swing in Jan- tions and (in almost poignant irony) all uary by the major political parties away politicians will be wary of charges of from supporting an end to fuel price ‘selling out’ to foreign interests.
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