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The Russia-Ukraine Conflict in the Context of Geopolitical Changes

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The Russia-Ukraine Conflict in the Context of Geopolitical Changes RAZUMKOV CENTRE THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT IN THE CONTEXT OF GEOPOLITICAL CHANGES Materials for the Trilateral Expert Meeting 27-28 February 2017, Berlin This publication was prepared by the Razumkov Centre with the assistance and support of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Office in Ukraine as part of the Project for Ukrainian-Russian-German Dialogue Kyiv, February 2017 Project Manager – Mikhail Pashkov Editors – Alla Chernova, Anna Pashkova English Editor – Valeriya Klymenko Photo-editor – Andrii Khopta Design and layout – Tetiana Ovsianik, Olexandr Shaptala Members of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Office in Ukraine Kateryna Bilotserkovets and Yuri Silvestrow participated in the work on the publication. This publication was prepared by the Razumkov Centre with the assistance of the Konrad Adenauer-Stiftung Office in Ukraine. Since 2015, with the assistance of its Kyiv and Moscow offices, the Foundation has arranged regular (semi-annual) meetings of Ukrainian, Russian and German experts, for discussion of matters related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This expert discussion initiative may be considered very important and necessary, given that contacts between Kyiv and Moscow are frozen not only at the political and diplomatic level but also at the level of expert communities and civil institutions. During the last meeting (August 2016), experts discussed the means, scenarios and prospects for settling the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv. How has the situation changed over the past six months? Has there been noticeable progress in the negotiation process in the Normandy format and the trilateral contact group? Are new geopolitical trends (the US presidential election, Brexit, political changes in Europe and the world) affecting the situation? What specific steps should be taken to settle (or mitigate) the Russia-Ukraine conflict? These and other problems will be discussed by the trilateral expert group in Berlin on 27-28 February 2017. This publication may serve both as an introduction to the panel discussion, and as a relatively comprehensive illustration of the attitudes, assessments and predictions by the Ukrainian, Russian and German experts. This edition presents a series of short topical interviews regarding two key subjects: the nature and impact of geopolitical changes on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and ways to settle the conflict. In addition, the publication presents some of the results from sociological surveys performed by the Razumkov Centre during the Russia-Ukraine conflict (2014-2016). The opinions and assessments stated during the interviews represent personal positions and do not necessarily correspond with the positions of the Razumkov Centre. Please provide a proper reference to this publication when using the information contained therein. Address of the Razumkov Centre: 16 Lavrskaya St., 2nd floor, Kyiv 01015 Phone: (044) 201-11-98 Fax: (044) 201-11-99 Website: www.razumkov.org.ua facebook: https://www.facebook.com/therazumkov/ © Razumkov Centre, 2017 © “Zapovit”, Publishing House, 2017 C O N T E N T OPENING REMARK Promoting Dialogue and Maintaining Trust between Participants Gabriele BAUMANN 87 THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT IN THE CONTEXT OF GEOPOLITICAL CHANGES Interviews by Ukrainian, Russian and German Experts (January 2017) 91 Positions of Ukrainian Experts 92 There Is no Reason to Expect a Significant Improvement in Ukrainian-Russian Relations in the Medium Term Volodymyr FESENKO 92 The Best Option in the Current Situation Is “Freezing” the Conflict in Donbas Mykhailo PASHKOV 95 If the West Gets Mired in Its Own Internal Problems, the Kremlin May Decide to Continue the Military Campaign Against Ukraine Mykhailo GONCHAR 98 The Future Lies in Internationalisation of the Process of Settling the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Vitaliy MARTYNIUK 101 No Preconditions Exist for New Active Attempts to Stimulate Settlement of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Maria ZOLKINA 105 Assessments by Russian Experts 109 The Main Objective Is to Avoid Further Deterioration in Russian-Ukrainian Relations Sergei UTKIN 109 Economic Measures Could Become the Basis for Resolving the Conflict Mikhail SUBBOTIN 111 We Have a Window of Opportunity to Settle the Conflict and with Enough Political Will We Can Use It Dmitriy DANILOV 115 n 85 n C O N T E N T It can be Assumed that Russia and the West Are at a Stage of Developing New Mitigation Principles, Which Makes Ukraine’s Position More Difficult Tatiana PARKHALINA 119 Implementation of the Minsk Agreements Will Take Us to Whatever Place We Take the Minsk Process Andrey ZAGORSKY 121 The Ukrainian Conflict at a New Stage in International Relations Nadezhda ARBATOVA 124 Opinions of German Experts 129 Ukraine Must Rely on Itself Only Gustav GRESSEL 129 Key Issues for Ukraine: Positions of the US and the EU on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Andreas UMLAND 133 The Key to Resolving the Situation Is in Kyiv Volker WEICHSEL 135 The Europeans Should Clearly Focus on Their Own Values and Strengthen Their Own Capacity Armin STAIGIS 137 THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT: ASSESSMENTS AND POSITIONS OF UKRAINIAN CITIZENS 143 Current State of Russian-Ukrainian Relations 144 Prospects of Kyiv-Moscow Relations 145 Geopolitical Preferences of Ukrainian Citizens 146 Conclusions 147 n 86 n PROMOTING DIALOGUE AND MAINTAINING TRUST BETWEEN PARTICIPANTS n PROMOTING DIALOGUE AND MAINTAINING TRUST BETWEEN PARTICIPANTS I remember well the end of 2014 when we discussed creating the Ukrainian-Russian dialogue in the Kyiv and Moscow offices of the Konrad- Adenauer-Stiftung. What kind of dialogue would it be, who would be invited to participate, and would it be possible for Ukraine to agree to it given the fact of an imposed military conflict. Of all 25 years since the fall of the Soviet Union, 2014 clearly stood out as the worst in relations Gabriele BAUMANN, between the two countries. Russia had backed the Head of the Office of the authoritarian president Yanukovych even during the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Maidan events and held an illegitimate referendum in Ukraine in Crimea in March, after which it had annexed Crimea, despite it being the Ukrainian territory. There followed a successful attempt to erode the situation in Eastern Ukraine, in Donbas, by supporting the separatist forces with funding, personnel and weaponry from Russia. In the summer of 2014, Russian Regular Army units became engaged, and that not only saved the pro-Russian forces from defeat and strengthened them, but also created the frontline, along with the seizing of new territories by separatists. In September of the same year, the first meeting of the parties to the conflict was held in Minsk in order to achieve a ceasefire agreement. Germany and France were acting as intermediaries at that time already. However, the ceasefire was ultimately not reached until the Minsk Summit in February 2015. Once again Ukraine suffered massive civilian and military casualties. There was naturally a strong emotional component, in connection with numerous victims, among the guest experts from Ukraine at our first meeting, held in Berlin shortly after “Minsk II”. However, their consent to participate in these discussions was never questioned. The Russian party had invited experts and we were confident that in the debate they would be able to disengage from the Kremlin’s official n 87 n n PROMOTING DIALOGUE AND MAINTAINING TRUST BETWEEN PARTICIPANTS position. After all, the key objectives of the discussions were, on the one hand, to continue, at least, some sort of dialogue between Ukraine and Russia, and on the other, to pursue settlement of the conflict. The official positions of the Kremlin were well-known to all attendees and they hardly needed to be reiterated. All four discussions in Berlin and in the Italian town of Cadenabbia took place in a trilateral format involving German experts. The second meeting involved discussion of such specific areas of Russian-Ukrainian bilateral relations as economic and energy policies. Generally speaking, in 2015 we had assumed that subsequent meetings would be fairly predictable and unproductive and this would unlikely change due to the prevailing situation at the beginning of the year. However, the case turned out to be the opposite: our discussion changed consistently amid new challenges, global changes and numerous internal factors in Ukraine and Russia, including the 2016 elections to the State Duma. It soon became clear that our communi- cation was in a position to move to a new level of mutual understan- ding in connection with the reaction to changes in the international landscape. Trilateral Expert Meeting “EU-Ukraine-Russia Relations Amid the Protracted Conflict”, 20-23 August 2015, Cadenabbia (Italy) n 88 n PROMOTING DIALOGUE AND MAINTAINING TRUST BETWEEN PARTICIPANTS n In September 2015, Russia launched a military intervention backing Assad in Syria, which weakened the public’s attention to the Russia- Ukraine conflict, at least in Russia and Germany. Here, it should be mentioned that one of our first meeting results was a tacit recognition that we were not talking about the “Ukrainian crisis” but about a conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This was not only about the situation in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, but also about the whole range of bilateral relations in the political and diplomatic realms, in economic, energy and humanitarian affairs. Our 2016 discussions had to address the influence of global events such as the possible strengthening of EU sanctions against Russia in connection with mass killing of civilians in Aleppo. 2016 was also marked by German Chairmanship in the OSCE, which naturally increased the OSCE role in discussions related to settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. What is more, this year the Normandy format meeting of the Heads of State and Foreign Ministers of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine acquired more significance that Ukrainian and international analysts have come to the conclusion that it is more adequate to the task than the Minsk process. In Ukraine, the talks of the contact group were increasingly condem- ned, and the Minsk Agreements have been stalled.
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