:MI[JVSQXLI+VSYRH

/E^EOLWXERvW2I['ETMXEP Its Importance and Implications Dena Sholk

(IRE7LSPOis a junior %WXERE%'ETMXEPMRXLI7XITTIWhen I arrived in the Edmund A. in Astana at 7:30 AM, still half-asleep, on a rainy August Walsh School of For- eign Service studying morning, I was relieved to have survived the train ride. International Politics Three weeks earlier, I had visited Turkestan, a city in south- and Security. During the 2011 summer, Dena ern Kazakhstan that is home to the mausoleum of Sufi traveled to Kazakhstan scholar Ahmed Yasawi. The Almaty-Turkestan train lasted and studied Russian on the American Coun- some twenty-two hours. I shared a four-person sleeping cils’ Eurasian Regional compartment with my travel companion Roberto and two Language Program as a Fulbright-Hays Kazakh men, a retired eighty-nine-year-old school princi- Scholar. pal from Turkestan and a forty-year-old Kazakh from Shy- mkent, another southern city. When the Shymkent gentle- man entered the cabin, he was wearing a pistol on his belt to “scare people.” Fortunately, he removed the belt at night. My travel companions to Astana were in their mid- twenties and carried smart phones and MP3 players rather than pistols. I traveled to Astana on the new, high-speed Spanish Talgo train—a direct overnight ride that departs Almaty at 7:30 PM and arrives in Astana and 7:30 the next morning. On the older Soviet trains, the Almaty-Astana journey—1,334 km, roughly the distance from Washington, D.C. to St. Louis—took nearly twenty hours. The new train catered to businessmen and young professionals; instead

Summer/Fall 2012 [203] /%>%/,78%2v72);'%4-8%0 of large families, there were men and pendence, President Nursultan Naz- women in business suits reading news- arbayev announced plans to relocate papers. Each cabin contained wireless Kazakhstan’s capital from Almaty to Internet, albeit non-functioning. Aqmola, a small, administrative town Walking from the Astana train sta- of 280,000 inhabitants in the mid- tion towards the city center, I entered dle of the Kipchak steppe.1 Aqmo- the familiar “Soviet” Kazakhstan on la was renamed Astana, the Kazakh the right bank of the Ishim River, word for “capital” and, since 1997, has which runs through the city. I navigat- blossomed into a beacon of the new ed narrow sidewalks overcrowded with Kazakhstan: a Kazakhstan eager to shed pedestrians, making my way past con- its Soviet legacy, embrace a national crete apartment blocks adorned with identity based on its nomadic history, Eurasian arabesque motifs and corner and lead the global political economy.2 kiosks selling everything from toma- The creation of Kazakhstan’s new capi- toes to cigarettes. For the eight weeks tal would not have been possible with- before making my way to Astana, I out the leadership and commitment of had been living with a Kazakh host President Nursultan Nazarbayev, whose family in a three-room, Khrushchev- legacy—for better or for worse—is tied era apartment in Almaty, the former up with Astana. capital and largest city of 1.5 million inhabitants. Almaty is a “typical” Soviet &YMPHMRK E 'ETMXEP President town with an urban grid layout, trolley Nazarbayev has invested an enormous buses traversing the city, and plenty of amount of political and economic capi- small parks. On every street corner, tal into developing Astana. Astana’s one can buy flowers, raspberries, ciga- buildings are over-the-top, even by rettes, or newspapers from a babushka, the standards of authoritarian regimes. the Russian term for an elderly woman. Astana’s symbol, the Bayterek monu- The city, located at the foothills of ment, is a ninety-seven meter-tall glass the snow-topped Tian Shan Mountains and steel tower crowned by a giant has an Asian ethos. The city embod- golden sphere. The Norman Foster ies Kazakhstan’s multiethnic identi- design embodies a folktale about a mag- ty with significant Dungan, Uighur, ic bird, Samruk, who laid its eggs on Kyrgyz, and Uzbek populations and the branches of a mythical tree of life. hole-in-the-wall restaurants offering At the top of Bayterek stands a pedes- their respective ethnic cuisines. The tal with a gilded imprint of President eight weeks I spent in this Soviet-era Nazarbayev’s right hand. The legend Kazakh environment made the con- goes that if you make a wish while plac- trast with Astana’s newer left bank even ing your hand on that of the ‘President starker. As I crossed the bridge over for Life,’ your wish will come true. As the Ishim River, I felt as if I were in a summer student in Kazakhstan, I of a time machine experiencing Kazakh- course made a wish. stan’s journey from Soviet Republic to Another Foster creation, the Palace independent state. for Peace and Accord, is a sixty-two In 1994, after three years of inde- meter steel and glass pyramid that will

[204] Georgetown Journal of International Affairs 7,30/ :MI[JVSQXLI+VSYRH serve as the geographic center of the and last day in Astana that I toured the city according to the Astana 2030 plan. Astana 2030 city model, a small mock- The pyramid will represent Kazakh- up of the actual city, on the top floor stan’s multi-vector foreign policy, its of the Palace of Independence. My tour location at the ‘crossroads of civiliza- guide was a gentle-mannered Kazakh in tions,’ and its domestic heterogene- his mid-twenties who attended univer- ity.3 At the top of the $50 million sity in South Korea and aspired to enter pyramid are 120 yellow stained-glass the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In per- doves, each one symbolizing a different fect English, he explained the city plan ethnic group in Kazakhstan. The Palace in remarkable detail. According to the hosted the Congress of World Religions master plan for Astana’s development, in 2006 and will do so again in 2012. designed by Japanese designer Kisho A few paces away from the Pyra- Kurokawa and personally selected by mid along Millennium Avenue, the President Nazarbayev, the city plan will imaginary line that runs down Astana’s be fully executed, with all of Astana’s center, stands the $50 million Presi- 710.2 square kilometers developed, by dential Residence, the Ak Orda, which 2030.5 Astana’s population will bal- is flanked by the Supreme Court and loon from 800,000 in 2011 to 1.5 State Auditorium. The three buildings million by 2030 due to the increase share a Versailles-like courtyard with in employment opportunities.6 As of the Mazhilis, the lower house of Parlia- my visit in August 2011, approximately ment, and Senate buildings. A set of 20-30 percent of the plan was com- gold towers connects this complex to a pleted. By 2015, half of the city plan row of government departments. With will be constructed. While some $12 the Ak Orda at the center of the legisla- billion, 30 percent of which came from tive and judicial bodies, Astana’s layout the Government of Kazakhstan, had is a perfect geographic metaphor for already been invested into developing the country’s politics. Astana by 2010, hundreds of millions One of my favorite structures in Asta- more will be expended in the future.7 na is the Khan Shatyr: a 150 meter-tall, So far, President Nazarbayev has $300 million glass tent.4 Also designed managed to balance competing politi- by Norman Foster, the Khan Shatyr is a cal interests to ensure a stable invest- modern American-style shopping mall, ment environment. Abu Dhabi Plaza, with some additional luxuries such as financed by the Gulf emirate that bears the ultra-elite Sky Beach Club on the its name and designed by Foster, will top floor, where Astana’s wealthy can include a retail podium, an integrated swim, soak up the sun, and forget that plaza, residential apartments, an inter- they are in the middle of the Siberian national grade office accommodation, steppe. I could smell the pool’s salty, and a hotel quarter.8 When complete in ocean water from the first floor. 2014, Abu Dhabi Plaza will be Astana’s Everything, from the manicured tallest building at 828 meters high, lawns to the yellow and blue street signs, including 88 floors and a price tag was new and seemingly perfect. Still, it of $1 billion.9 The largest mosque in was not until the morning of my second Central Asia, the Nur-Astana Mosque

Summer/Fall 2012 [205] /%>%/,78%2v72);'%4-8%0 and Madrasa, was a gift to Astana given der whether Astana is physically capable by the government of Qatar. Not to be of handling an inflow of people and outdone, Israeli entrepreneur David the subsequent demand on resources. Ben-Nani is investing $6 billion to How can so much money go into one construct a ‘Central Park’ complex that city in the world’s ninth largest country will include 10,000 apartment units, over the span of several decades? Given parks, schools, two soccer fields, and Nazarbayev’s intimate involvement in three hotels.10 developing Astana, what will happen in Strolling down Millennium Avenue, the post-Nazarbayev era? Is the devel- I realized how bizarrely perfect Astana opment of Astana politically sustainable felt. There were no poor babushkas selling under different leadership, or will the berries in buckets on the corner, samsa capital—and the country—disintegrate vendors cooking up their delicacies, in the absence of strong political lead- or kiosks stuffed with cigarettes and ership? newspapers. I passed a handful of Dun- I fear Astana is growing at an unsus- gan restaurants in the right bank, but tainable rate. There is too much, too noticed that Astana is inhabited mostly soon. -VIEPM^IHLS[FM^EVVIP]TIVJIGX%WXE REJIPX There were no poor babushkas selling berries in buckets on the corners...or kiosks stuffed with cigarettes and newspapers. by ambitious, professional Kazakhs; %WXEREvW (IZIPSTQIRX 'LEP Astana’s demography does not reflect PIRKIW On a micro level, Astana’s the country’s advertised 120 nation- expansion faces significant political and alities. The underground passageways economic challenges. While the gov- in Astana were stone, cold, generic, ernment has provided incentives such and devoid of character. Meanwhile, as subsidized housing to government in Almaty, underground passageways employees, this will not last forever. thrived as parallel cities where one When the government is no longer able could visit a tailor, purchase books, use to finance subsidies, market mecha- an Internet café, or purchase ice cream. nisms will place upward pressure on Of course, Astana is a new city with a real estate prices. The cost of living short history, but its micromanaged in Astana is already high relative to development prevents the creative forc- other cities. In 2011, the number of es of Astana’s inhabitants from organi- real estate transactions in Kazakhstan cally driving the city’s development in increased by 10-15 percent.11 Accord- terms of cultural monuments. Aside ing to the Managing Director of Kaz- from being irked by the city’s sterile kommertsbank, much of the growth is appearance, I could not help but won- caused by an increase in demand for

[206] Georgetown Journal of International Affairs 7,30/ :MI[JVSQXLI+VSYRH housing in Almaty and Astana.12 Despite mid-August. Prior to the accident, my the 30 percent increase in public sec- friend had gotten used to waiting five tor wages in July 2011, my friends in to ten minutes every morning for the Almaty and Astana who worked for the elevator to arrive at his floor. Appar- government complained of insufficient ently, the elevator was just one of several salaries.13 While the Astana 2030 plan construction problems in the Northern includes an area of low-cost housing Lights Towers, which were full of water units for civil servants, the geographic leaks. segregation of government employees hinders the growth of effective institu- %WXERE MR XLI 'SRXI\X SJ tions. Instead, the government should /E^EOLWXER At the time of inde- increase wages to motivate public ser- pendence, Kazakhstan’s economic vants to advance professionally through geography was such that major popula- meritocracy. tion and industrial centers were in the In Almaty, my host sister informed Russified North and West, agricultural me that her mother was considering activity was based in the South, and relocating the family to Astana to find small railroad and former gulag towns work. My host mother was a Kazakh lan- could be found in the center of the guage professor who had been recently country. Constructing a megacity in laid off from her summer job as a Rus- the middle of the steppe—an irratio- sian-Kazakh translator for a local com- nal move from an economic perspec- pany. Given the increased use of the tive given Astana’s isolation from most Kazakh language in government and major industrial, transportation, and business, my host mother would likely communication networks—resulted in do well in Astana. But for many other the inefficient concentration of sig- Kazakhs, whose skill sets are not directly nificant resources. The city’s growth transferrable to the city’s employment has also accelerated the rural-urban opportunities, migrating to Astana will divide created under the Soviet Union. inflict stress and financial hardship on Astana and Almaty are to Kazakhstan families detached from the support of what Moscow and St. Petersburg are to their kinship networks. Russia as mega-urban centers. Kazakh- While Astana’s buildings appear stan’s economic geography, as a conse- majestic, they are filled with structural quence of the infrastructure inherited flaws due to rushed construction. A from the Soviet Union, parallels the Kazakh friend who had interned in Russian economy, where Moscow con- Astana told me how the elevator in stitutes over half of the country’s GDP. his apartment in the famed Northern Almaty currently produces 20 percent Lights Towers had fallen twenty-three of Kazakhstan’s GDP.15 In the future, floors. Caused by failed delay sensors, Astana will constitute an even larger the elevator accident was under inves- proportion of the nation’s produc- tigation by the Astana Department of tion. In 2010 alone, Astana attracted 14 Emergencies. The fall occurred on percent of the country’s foreign invest- July 21, yet the elevator remained out of ments.16 Over time, Astana and Almaty operation by the time my friend left in will crowd out investment opportuni-

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ties in the peripheral regions, while systems. Astana’s grandeur does not causing a brain drain in the countryside compensate for the Soviet shoddiness and an overwhelming amalgamation of of Kazakhstan’s smaller towns. resources in these two cities. The millions wrapped up in Astana’s %WXERE %JXIV 2E^EVFE]IZ glossy skyscrapers benefit the privi- Despite Astana’s incredible growth, its leged few, while peripheral regions suf- future is jeopardized by the question of fer from under-investment. I visited political leadership succession. Already Sufi Ahmad Yasawi’s Mausoleum in an impressive city, Astana will expand Turkestan, a small town in southern at an even more accelerated rate over Kazakhstan not far from the border the next eighteen years, requiring the with Uzbekistan, where there was no continuation of the status-quo political Internet access and where most roads, and economic environment. buildings, and facilities have not been The rule of seventy-one-year-old 8LIQMPPMSRW[VETTIHYT in Astana’s glossy skyscrapers benefit the privileged few, while peripheral regions suffer from under- investment.

touched since before 1990. Even in President Nazarbayev will soon end. To Almaty, my apartment lacked air con- guarantee long-term stability, the Pres- ditioning, and on some days the gas did ident must determine a suitable suc- not work. In restrooms throughout the cessor. Since independence, Kazakh- city, toilet paper was never flushed but stan has not experienced a transition was disposed of in trashcans because of executive power, and it remains the plumbing system could not handle extremely unclear how power will be the paper. The city’s buses and trolleys transferred. Nazarbayev’s personal net ran on the same schedule and ticket- worth, while not exactly known, is in ing system from the Soviet period. It excess of $1 billion. Meanwhile, his took me forty-five minutes to walk to son-in-law and former head of the $80 school everyday, while the bus took one billion Samruk-Kazyna Sovereign Wel- hour. The money channeled into Asta- fare Fund, Timur Kulibayev, is esti- na would be better allocated to combat- mated to be worth $1.3 billion accord- ing corruption by increasing wages for ing to Forbes.17 Moreover, President police officers and government employ- Nazarbayev’s position at the nexus of ees, upgrading the national infrastruc- international political and economic ture, modernizing supply chains for forces in developing Astana renders agricultural producers in the country’s the office of the presidency extremely southern regions, and investing in the important and highly coveted. Astana national education and public health raises the succession stakes, turning a

[208] Georgetown Journal of International Affairs 7,30/ :MI[JVSQXLI+VSYRH million-dollar question into a billion- stan, prompting foreign investors to dollar gamble. lose confidence in the business climate For President Nazarbayev, Astana is and withdraw investments, thwarting a symbolic manifestation of Kazakh- Astana’s development, and eliminating stan’s glory, power, unitary system, and thousands of jobs. Because Astana is multi-vector foreign policy. President regarded as a center of employment, its Nazarbayev promulgates the new capi- development in a post-Nazarbayev era tal as a modern emblem of the Kazakh will impact the entire state. nation-state in order to augment per- ceptions about the legitimacy of his 'SRGPYWMSR Astana crystallizes regime. Kazakhstani nationalism as well as the Will Astana’s symbolic “soft power” innovation, commitment, and lead- outlast Nazarbayev? Many parties share ership of President Nazarbayev. His a coincidence of interest in maintain- failure to select a successor, however, ing the macroeconomic stability neces- threatens the country’s stability and sary for continued investment and con- the growth of the capital. Moreover, struction. If the incentive of the material Astana’s rapid development has come gains of the presidency becomes greater at a cost. There has been poor quality than the shared interests in upholding construction, under-investment in the stability, however, then elites will fight peripheral regions, and the creation of for power and destabilize the political high expectations that may go unful- system. Many of the Kazakh profession- filled in a post-Nazarbayev era. It is als I encountered confessed fearing for not a matter of if, but when, the Naz- the security of their country and invest- arbayev presidency ends. When that day ments once Nazarbayev passes from the comes, I fear Astana will be a symbol of scene. The fear is that instability in autocratic extravagance rather than an Astana will spread throughout Kazakh- emblem of a unified, developing state.

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238)7 1 Tim Cashion, “The Building of a City Astana: 13 August 2011, Internet, http://www.ynetnews.com/ From Modest Soviet Town to Glittering Capital,” Edge, articles/0,7340,L-4098065,00.html (date accessed: Internet, http://edgekazakhstan.com/a_building.htm 22 December 2011). (date accessed: 10 January 2012). 11 “Kazakhstan’s Property Market to Grow in 2 Aqmola is Kazakh for “white mausoleum,” while 2012,” New Europe, 8 January 2012, Internet, http:// Astana is Kazakh for “capital.” www.kazakhembus.com/index.php?mact=News,cntn 3 Anonymous tour guide, conversation with t01,detail,0&cntnt01articleid=831&cntnt01origid=9 author, Astana, Kazakhstan, 5 August 2011. 0&cntnt01category_id=6&cntnt01returnid=90 (date 4 “Discover Astana!” Expo 2017 Astana, Internet, accessed: 9 January 2012). http://www.expo2017astana.com/en/node/105 (date 12 Ibid. accessed: 22 December 2011). 13 International Monetary Fund, “Statement by 5 Anonymous tour guide, conversation with the IMF Mission to the Republic of Kazakhstan,” 28 author, Astana, Kazakhstan, 5 August 2011. October 2011, Internet, http://www.imf.org/external/ 6 Anonymous tour guide, conversation with np/ms/2011/102811.htm (date accessed: 10 January author, Astana, Kazakhstan, 5 August 2011. 2012). 7 Embassy of Kazakhstan, “Kazakhstan Coun- 14 “Three People Injured in Astana Elevator Fall,” try Profile 2011,” Internet, http://www.kazakhembus. Tengrinews, 21 July 2011, Internet, http://en.tengrinews. com/uploads/images/Country%20Profile%202011. kz/disasters/3309/ (date accessed: 28 December 2011). pdf (date accessed: 28 December 2011). 15 “Every 8th person in Kazakhstan lives in Alma- 8 “Aldar Properties & Al Maabar Launch Abu Dha- ty,” Tengrinews, 28 November 2011, Internet, http:// bi Plaza in Astana, Kazakhstan,” AME Info, 1 November en.tengrinews.kz/people/5666/ (date accessed: 28 2007, Internet, http://www.ameinfo.com/136656. December 2011). html (date accessed: 22 December 2011). 16 “Astana – City with Dynamic Tendency of 9 “Agreement Signed to Construct Abu Dhabi Growth,” Astana Official Website, 1 July 2010, Internet, Plaza in Astana,” Tengrinews, 29 March 2011, Internet, http://www.astana.kz/en/node/7321 (date accessed: 22 http://en.tengrinews.kz/kazakhstan_news/467/ (date December 2011). accessed: 28 December 2011). 17 “Timur Kulibayev,” Forbes, March 2011, Inter- 10 Gad Lior, “Israeli Invests $6B in Kazakhstan: net, http://www.forbes.com/profile/timur-kulibaev/ David Ben Nani building luxurious residential quar- (date accessed: 10 August 2011). ter for 30,000 residents in Astana,” Yedioth Internet,

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