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Perspectives on the Peace Process 4 a Shift from Security to Peace 19

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Perspectives on the Peace Process 4 a Shift from Security to Peace 19 Deciphering Myanmar's Peace Process A Reference Guide 2017-2018 www.bnionline.net www.mmpeacemonitor.org Deciphering Myanmar’s Peace Process: A Reference Guide 2017-2018 Written and Edited by Burma News International Layout/Design by Saw Wanna(Z.H) Translator-Aung Moe First Edition: May 2019 Printer: Burmawoman Printing (00026), minnandar street,Dawpon Tsp,Yangon Copyright reserved by Burma News International Published by Burma News International P.O Box 7, Talad Kamtieng PO Chiang Mai, 50304, Thailand E-mail: [email protected], [email protected] Website: http://www.mmpeacemonitor.org Twitter: http://twitter.com/mmpeacemonitor Facebook: http:// www.facebook.com/mmpeacemonitor http://bnionline.net Contents Acknoledgement vii Notes to the Readers ix Summary xi Background of BNI's Myanmar Peace Monitor Project xv Acronyms xvii I. Prospect of Peace Process Myanmar Peace Process Grand Chart 2 Timeline of Myanmar Peace Process 3 Perspectives on the Peace Process 4 A Shift from Security to Peace 19 ,, &RQÀLFW$QDO\VLV 0DUFK The Map showing the condition of Armed Clashes 2016 26 The Map showing the condition of Armed Clashes 2017-2019 (March) 27 1XPEHUVRIWKHFRQÀLFWLQFLGHQWV Clashes between Tatmadaw and EAOs (2017-2019 March) 29 $QDO\VLVRIWKH&RQÀLFW6LWXDWLRQ Situation snapshot of the strenght of EAO Forces 32 TNCA-related Rules and Regulations 33 ,,,,QWHUQDOO\'LVSODFHG3HRSOHDQG5HIXJHHV 6LWXDWLRQDORI,'30DS Situational of IDP Map 2017-2019 March 39 Displacement in Myanmar 40 ,PSDFWRIWKH&RQÀLFWRQWKH3RSXODWLRQ IV. Meeting Overview The infographic of Peace meeting 47 Meetings Overview 49 A Reference Guide 2017-2018 iii 9 VW&HQWXU\3DQJORQJ8QLRQ3HDFH&RQIHUHQFH The 21st Century Panglong Union Peace Conference Format 63 Pyidaungsu Accord – Part I 66 Pyidaungsu Accord – Part II 73 9,.H\,VVXHVDQG&KDOOHQJHVRIWKH3HDFH3URFHVV The role of State Counselor in the Peace Process 79 7KHUROHRI7DWPDGDZLQWKH3HDFH3URFHVV 1&$'HDGORFNDQGWKH($2V &ODVKHVDQG3DWKZD\VWR3HDFH 9,,7KHUROHRIWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RPPXQLW\LQ Myanmar Peace Process &KLQD¶V5ROHLQ0\DQPDU3HDFH3URFHVV The EU takes a leading role in Myanmar Peace Process 93 India plays a part in Myanmar Peace Process 97 Japan takes an active role in Myanmar Peace Process 104 The US and Myanmar Peace Process 109 Economic and Political Stakes 113 9,,,2UJDQL]DWLRQDO3UR¿OHV A to Z 119 7KH0DSRI/LDLVRQRႈFHVRI($2V Armed Group from out of NCA 166 EAOs Active Area 167 16$*$FWLYH$UHDLQ0\DQPDU ,;/RFDODQG,QWUHQDWLRQDO6XSSRUWHUVRI0\DQPDU V3HDFH3URFHVV A to Z 169 ; 6WDWHPHQWVRQWKHSHDFHSURFHVV Records of statements on the peace process within the period from 2017 to March 2019 175 A Reference Guide 2017-2018 v vi Deciphering Myanmar’s Peace Process Acknoledgement :H%XUPD1HZV,QWHUQDWLRQDO %1, DUHSOHDVHGWRSUHVHQWWKH¿IWK book on the complex Myanmar’s peace process. This book is based RQWKH\HDUO\FROOHFWHGGDWD)DFWVDQG¿JXUHVSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVERRN are based on media report collected within the scope of BNI’s peace monitoring project (www.mmpeacemonitor.org) in the period of three years from 2017 to 2019 (March). Our team of BNI thanks our peace monitoring members Htu Sam, Donna Ong (International Consultant), Sayar Zin Linn, Ko Hnin Ko (Peace Researcher), Ko Pein Pha and those, who conducted research and contributed into this book. Thank are also due to Felix Haas who edited the English draft reportin terms of grammar and linguistics. :HDUHJUDWHIXOWRWKH-RLQW3HDFH)XQG -3) IRU¿QDQFLDOO\VXSSRUWLQJ this publication and our peace monitoring project. The publication of this book would not have been possible without the assistance of the JPF. On this occasion, we would also like to express our profound gratitude to previous donors of BNI who helped initiate the peace monitoring project over previous years. BNI is committed to continuing its support for the development of democracy and peace in Myanmar. A Reference Guide 2017-2018 vii Notes to the Reader This book is intended to provide transparent information in relation to the peace process in Myanmar between January 2017 and December 2018. The peace process is too complex to be covered in totality. Insofar, the reader may need to understand that a certain level of inconsistencies cannot be averted. ,QWKHSHDFHSURFHVVLQ0\DQPDULWLVDPDMRUFKDOOHQJHWRFRQ¿UPDQGYHULI\LQ- IRUPDWLRQ0RVWIDFWVDQG¿JXUHVLQFOXGHGLQWKLVERRNDUHFROOHFWHGDQGFRPSLOHG IURPPHGLDRWKHUDUWLFOHVLQWHUYLHZVUHYLHZVORFDODQGIRUHLJQUHSRUWVDQGRI¿FLDO statements. Besides, many developments in the peace process are not only related to the government, the Tatmadaw and ethnic armed groups as institutions, but also related to the individuals involved in the peace process and their individual percep- tions. Hence, the data collection for this book has been a major challenge. Our team has undertaken an utmost effort to consolidate this book to enhance understanding RIWKHFRPSOLFDWHGGHYHORSPHQWVSHDFHDQGFRQÀLFW Throughout the document, the expression Tatmadaw is used as a reference to the Myanmar military and Myanmar Army to unit of the Tatmadaw carrying out ground DFWLYLWLHV:HDOVRXVHWKHRI¿FLDOH[SUHVVLRQ($2VUHIHUULQJWRQRQVWDWHHWKQLF armed groups as per described in the NCA. $PRQJWKH1&$6($2VDOVRVRPH0\DQPDUQDWLRQDOVWXGHQWVGHPRFUDWLFIRUFHV are non-ethnic based and so that the usage will not be accurate. To recognize their A Reference Guide 2017-2018 ix SROLWLFDOVWDQFHWKHH[SUHVVLRQVWXGHQWDUPHGJURXSVDQG¿JKWLQJJURXSVDUHXVHG KHUHDVDUHIHUHQFHWRDUPHGJURXSVLQYROYLQJLQRQJRLQJFRQÀLFWV $OWKRXJKWKHZRUG5RKLQJ\DLVHWKQLFULJKWUHODWHGYHU\VHQVLWLYHDQGQRWRI¿FLDOO\ recognized in Myanmar, we have to use it in our reports for reasons of accuracy. This expression is used, as the above-mentioned community is self-identifying by this word. Purpose of the use of the word Rohingya is hence not to be understood a political statement in opposition to the word Bengali. It also is noteworthy that beyond Rohingya other Muslim groups such as Kaman reside in Rakhine State. Hence, for WKLVUHDVRQWKHRI¿FLDOWHUPXVHGE\WKHJRYHUQPHQW³0XVOLPVIURP5DNKLQH6WDWH´ is considered inaccurate. The understanding of the reader for this use of terminol- ogy is kindly requested. This book is based on data collected and key changes that have occurred in the period from March 2017 to 2019. x Deciphering Myanmar’s Peace Process Summary In 2017 and 2018, the peace process in Myanmar has entered a phase of crises, deadlock and setbacks. There is an acute challenge moving forward with the peace process in an orderly manner. The Thein Sein government tried to end the 70-year long DUPHGVWUXJJOHWKURXJKWKHJURXQGEUHDNLQJDFKLHYHPHQWRIWKH1DWLRQDO&HDVH¿UH $JUHHPHQW 1&$ ¿QDOO\VLJQHGE\HLJKWRXWRIRYHUHWKQLFDUPHGJURXSV%HIRUHKLV WHUPHQGHGWKH¿UVW8QLRQ3HDFH&RQIHUHQFH 83& ZDVKHOGLQRQ-DQXDU\ Most political analysts regard the NCA as limited in impact, as the NCA signatories 1&$6($2V RQO\FRQVWLWXWHDSSUR[LPDWHO\SHUFHQWRIWKHRUJDQL]HGIRUFHVRI ethnic armed groups in the whole of the country. Hence, there is controversy, whether or not the completion of the incomplete NCA under the Thein Sein government has been a success. %XLOGLQJ PXWXDO WUXVW EHOLHI EHWZHHQ ($2V 7DWPDGDZ DQG WKH LQFXPEHQW 1/' government taking over the peace process has been a major challenge: Firstly, the 1/'JRYHUQPHQWKDGWRDGKHUHWRJRYHUQPHQWDOFRPPLWPHQWVPDGHLQWKH1&$ secondly the deadlock in bringing non-signatories under the NCA-umbrella needed to be addressed. 8QGHUWKH1/'JRYHUQPHQWWKHIRUPDWRIWKH8QLRQ3HDFH&RQIHUHQFHVKDVEHHQ established, which at least has created some platform for political exchange. Two SDUWVRID8QLRQ$FFRUGZLWKDWRWDORISRLQWVFRXOGEHFRQFOXGHG,QDGGLWLRQWKH 1&$XPEUHOODFRXOGEHH[WHQGHGWR1063DQG/'8LQHDUO\ The implementation even of the 21st Century Panglong Conferences however equally faces challenges, as any of the previous three Panglong sessions has been con- siderably delayed. In this context also no date for the fourth 21st Century Panglong A Reference Guide 2017-2018 xi &RQIHUHQFHFRXOG\HWEHDJUHHGXSRQ7KH1&$6($2V.18DQG5&66VWRSSHG their participation on both, NCA and JMC levels. ,QRUGHUDOVRWRLQFOXGH1&$16($2VXQGHUWKH1&$XPEUHOODDOVRELODWHUDOGLVFXV- sions - particularly of informal nature - with combating armed groups of FPNCC are needed to understand e.g. their positions for the political dialogue. 7KH1&$HTXDOO\KDVQRWIXOO\KDOWHG¿JKWVEHWZHHQWKH7DWPDGDZDQG1&$6($2 &RQVHTXHQWO\DOVRIRU1&$16($2VWKH1&$FHQWHUHGSHDFHSURFHVVPD\ODFN FUHGLELOLW\7KHHPHUJHQFHRILQWHQVH¿JKWLQJLQ.DFKLQDQG1RUWKHUQ6KDQ6WDWHVDV well as in broader Rakhine State equally blurs any prospect of peace and national UHFRQFLOLDWLRQXQGHU1/' (IIRUWVKDYHEHHQPDGHWRHVWDEOLVKSULQFLSOHVRIDGHPRFUDWLFDQGIHGHUDOV\VWHPLQ Myanmar. Such efforts however are often overshadowed by international pressure regarding escalating violence and confrontation in Northern Myanmar and Rakhine 6WDWHDQGDOOHJDWLRQVRIKXPDQULJKWYLRODWLRQVRIWKH7DWPDGDZLQFRQÀLFW]RQHV 7KHDYRLGDQFHRISRVVLEOHFRQÀLFWVDQGMRLQWPRQLWRULQJDFWLYLWLHVRIFHDVH¿UHYLRODWLRQV DUHNH\SDUWRIWKH1&$7KHDJUHHPHQWKRZHYHUUHPDLQVYDJXHDQGQRQVSHFL¿F in key areas such as disarmament, demarcation arrangements and power sharing. $OWKRXJKWKH1&$KDVEHHQUHDFKHGZLWK($2V¿JKWLQJLQFLGHQWVDORQJZLWK threats from territorial expansion and military build-up between by the Tatmadaw FRQWLQXHGWRH[LVW7KLVOHDYHVWKHORFDOSRSXODWLRQLQFRQÀLFWDIIHFWHGUHJLRQVLQIHDU Beyond the developments on the peace side, developments in the economy have HTXDOO\RFFXUUHG0\DQPDU¶VRSHQLQJKDVSHUPLWWHGWKHFRXQWU\WRDWWUDFW86DQG other Western investments as well as particularly Chinese and Japanese invest- PHQWV,QWKHFRQÀLFWDIIHFWHGERUGHUDUHDVH[DPSOHVRILQYHVWPHQWVH[SORLWLYHLQ xii Deciphering
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