www.globsec.org but stillCentral strongly European Young Central Europeans: 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC

East-West GLOBSEC Youth Trends 2020 no, were merged toyes /neither /no. neither yes norno/rather no/definitely with optionsdefinitelyyes/ rather yes / generalised. For example, inaquestion withascalewerein closedquestions indicated infootnotes. Theresponses theexactopen questions, wording is The questionnaire includedseveral belong toanonymous respondents. usedwithinthereportThe quotes conducted by IPSOS. full numbers. collectionwas Thedata report, theresults were rounded to of graphical data-visualisation inthis settlement andregion. For thepurpose bythe country gender, age, size of respondents were representative of theprofilesIn allcountries, ofthe collection. using on-linepaneldata of 500 respondents (percountry) surveys were conductedonasample Hungary, Poland andSlovakia. The inCentralcountries Europe: Czechia, population aged18–34 years infour 2019 onarepresentative sampleofthe poll surveys carriedoutinDecember report are basedonpublicopinion andfindingsofthis The outcomes Methodology Strategic CommunicationProgramme Authors Senior Research Fellow Katarína Klingová Research Fellow Dominika Hajdu respondents aged25-34 years Young professionals: respondents aged18-24 years Younger generation: Czechia, Hungary, Poland andSlovakia. V4 (Visegrad Four): and Slovakia. research -Czechia, Hungary, Poland coveredto allcountries by this this report the terminreference uses Central Europe: Glossary

Contents 22 26 32 18 14 8 4 Leaders Threats Russia States United Union European West East- Introduction 3 GLOBSEC Youth Trends 2020 East-West Countries surveyed Introduction

Developments and changes in the region - and the entire world - within the last decade suggest that the next Poland years might not draw the easiest path for Central Europeans. The prospect of economic crisis, Brexit, unpredictability of transatlantic cooperation, and an ongoing information war waged by Russia have been, and will continue to be, a strong Czechia influence on public opinion across the region. Moreover, the assurance of strong transatlantic bonds based on common values is fading while many domestic Slovakia political actors use nationalistic rhetoric to further drive apart any sense of commonness.

The next decades and the future of the region will, as always, depend to a great extent on the key driving force – young people. What effects do current Hungary developments have on young Central Europeans and what does it mean for the future of Central Europe? This research sheds more light on these questions. Using targeted online polling among more than 2,000 young people, it provides deeper insight into young people’s perceptions of the world, the European Union (EU), the United States (US) and

Trends 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC Russia. 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC Introduction

4 5 Key Findings Key

incline to position see the US pri- 1) their country 4) marily as a rich, Country somewhere in strong and powerful between the East and world player. While highlights West. While the West more young Central is most commonly Europeans do not per- associated with wealth ceive the US as a threat and economic benefits, to their country, the the East is perceived most common reason Young Czechs aged more in terms of a is that they do not be- 25 – 34 are the most geographical area, lieve their countries are sceptical of the EU; such as Russia, Eastern interesting enough for Czechs also associate Europe or Ukraine. the US. the EU the most with the narrative of a supposed “Brussels dictate”.

are positive see Russia 2) about the EU. 5) rather as a Young Hungarians While 7 in 10 would negative force than a identify the least with choose to stay in force for good in the others’ values from the the EU in case of a world. They tend to region; also, they do referendum on leaving, perceive it is a threat not see the West or the those who would stay mostly because of the East as represented by mentioned mostly its Kremlin’s attempts a specific country. economic benefits and to influence other freedom of movement countries and its as an argument to expansionist policies remain. to increase its power.

Young Poles remain the most pro-US and the most anti-Russian country in the V4.

perceive the EU 3) more positively than the US or Russia, both in terms of having Young Slovaks remain their values aligned the most pro-Russian with the EU, as well as and the least pro-US when evaluating the oriented country in the EU’s behaviour in the V4. world. Trends 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC Young Young people in Central Europe

6 7 8 GLOBSEC Youth Trends 2020 East-West East- West 01 US engagementinCentral Europe might among NATO members, anddecreasing the EU, criticismandthelackofunity abstract. With theUnited Kingdomleaving Second, theWest mightbebecomingtoo response. people choosing“do notknow”asa explained by highpercentages ofyoung terms of“East”and“West” couldalsobe Decreasing perception oftheworld in actors shapingcurrent developments. distributed amongmany continentsand vanished 30years ago, today influenceis With theCold War’s bipolarworld having of theoriginal“Eastvs.West” dichotomy. the disappearancefrom people’s minds distribution intheworld mightbecausing First, thechanginglandscapeofpower negative termsduetoseveral factors. This, however, shouldnotbeobserved in generation isnotdiffering from thistrend. between” positioning,andtheyounger towardsleaning thepreference ofan“in- increasing numbers ofCentral Europeans’ Several years ofpollinghave shown “in-between”? How about Poland Hungary Czechia Slovakia There has recently been much discussion in our society There inoursociety hasrecently beenmuchdiscussion about the geopolitical andcivilisationalof about thegeopolitical positioning [your Would country]. you like your tobe: country

Part oftheWest 34% 38% 33% 26% level ofWestern European countries. European willever countries reach the result thatCentral ofgiving upontheidea towards choosingtheWest mightbea Central Europeans, sothehesitancy still strongly present amongmany young the richerandmore developed West is Third, prove thedata thattheimageof the West oftheV4. geographical lyingto terms–ascountries that “West” seensimplyin isoften rather thantheUS, whichindicates West withWestern European countries young Central Europeans associatethe today. Astheresults show, themajorityof ofwhatthe“West”images represents all contributetothelackoftangible us. (respondent from Czechia) a worse “Eastern“ pathisrightfor neither abitbetter“Western“ nor Unforunately, itseems that growing numberofitsdefects. aspiration, butwe canobserve a Somewhere in-between West shouldbe our Theoretically, the 46% 48% 36% 58% Part oftheEast their lives work-life balanceandself-realisation in topics oftheenvironment, they prefer a They are becomingmore engagedin of Poles and12%ofHungarians. corresponds to16%ofCzechs,10%Slovaks,20% who responded“donotknow”tothequestion.That higher onMaslow’s “hierarchy ofneeds”. living, young peoplemighthave moved achieved level acertain initsstandard of Related tothat,asCentral Europe has deloitte/articles/millennialsurvey.html https://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/about- needs-4582571 https://www.thoughtco.com/maslows-hierarchy-of- the conceptcanbefoundhere: 3 2 1 standard ofliving(see p. 10). - backwardness, poverty andworse largely associatedwithnegative elements to theEastofCentral Europe, andis lying seen simplyintermsofcountries On thecontrary, the“East” ismostly of living. are associatedwiththeWestern often way paradox andvalues sincesuchpriorities anymore. Thismightbeconsidered asa simply notbeseenasatoppriority Therestofthepercentagesisrepresentedbythose Exampleofastudyonmillennials: Anexampleofanarticleexplaining 3 andeconomicgrowth might 3% 6% 7% 8% 1 2

9 GLOBSEC Youth Trends 2020 East-West Seeing the world If you imagine a specific country through countries 7 East-West under the “West”, which one(s)? East-West What do you In Czechia and Slovakia, general perception of both the West and East is also strongly connected to the image of specific countries. A specific country Czechia came to mind for 48% of young Czechs imagine under and almost 58% of young Slovaks when Germany 47% asked about what they generally imagine under the West.5 In Slovakia, more young people associate the West with a specific US 40% the West? country or geographical area than with an attribute or character. France 23% The strongest association with the West Most common associations is related to wealth - around a quarter Not seeing the world 4 of all respondents imagine rich or more with the West: through countries UK 19% economically developed countries under this term. This association was On the contrary, young Hungarians 31% most common in Hungary, where it was generally dismiss the idea of having either mentioned in almost 50% of all responses. West or East associated with a specific Associations regarding economic benefits country - only 11% of those who would Poland were generally much more common Economically position their country in the West or “in- than value-based perceptions in all the between” said they imagine an individual V4 countries. Despite the fact that the country when we say “West” and 14% of Germany 67% US was mentioned most often, common those who would position Hungary either references to Germany, Western Europe developed in the East or “in-between”.6 or France combined indicate that the US 11% understanding of the West is strongly When asked specifically about the related to Western Europe among young country they imagine under the West, Central Europeans. countries differences could be observed especially France 19% among young Czechs’ focus on the UK and young Poles’ focus on Germany while 13% omitting the US. This might come as a UK 5% Geographically, we are surprise for the country with the strongest obviously somewhere pro-US sentiments in the region. On between the East and West, but United States the other hand, it proves young Poles’ ideologically, we should follow awareness of the intensity of Polish- the Western societies. German relations. (respondent from Hungary) Slovakia 12%

5 The question asked: “What do you imagine under the Germany 45% Germany term “West“?“ 6 The question “Do you imagine any specific country under the term “West“?“ was asked to the sample of Formerly, it meant respondents who responded “West“ or “in-between“ US to the question on the page no. 7. The question “Do 39% wealth and cultural 8% you imagine any specific country under the term development, now I imagine “East“?“ was asked to the sample of respondents who responded “East“ or “in-between“ to the question on a decline of European values West as a cardinal direction the page no. 7. France 18% and problem with refugees. 7 Hungary is not included in the data set, as only 11% of (respondent from Poland) respondents said yes to imagining a specific under the West, i.e. the sample was too small to draw conclusions. 7% The question was open with a possibility to write more UK than one country. The table refers to the percentages of 8% the sample of those who answered yes to the question: “Do you imagine any specific country under the term Better living standards “West“?“

4 The question What do you imagine under the term “West“? was asked to the sample of respondents who 7% responded “West“ or “in-between“ to the question on the page no. 7. The question was open and the

Trends 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC respondents could mention more than one association. Western Europe 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC

10 11 The East as a country If you imagine a specific country 9 East-West While Russia is still in the minds of a under the East, which one(s)? East-West What do you majority when asking what country represents the “East”, larger Ukrainian minority might have shaped the perceptions of Poles. A stronger Chinese Czechia influence in Czechia, which is also imagine under reflected in a continuous and vivid public Russia 74% discussion, is visible in the responses of young Czechs. the East? Ukraine 13% China 17% Specifying a country as one’s first Most common associations association with the East is common 84% among approximately one half of the with the East:8 respondents across the region. In Slovakia and Czechia, one third of all responses of Hungarian respondents 25% Poland included the mention of Russia. do not imagine any specific country under the term The East paints a completely different “East“. Russia 65% picture in the minds of young Hungarians who primarily imagine Eastern Europe under the term in general. Also, 21% of Russia Ukraine 22% young Hungarians mentioned non- developed or backward countries as an 12% association with the East, Russia is the On average, China 3% most common association among young in Czechia, Czechs, Poles and Slovaks. Less Poland and Slovakia, 78% of male Slovakia Lifestyle that is closer developed respondents to ours (even from mention the historical point of view), Russia 71% but rather leaning towards Russia when totalitarianism and under Russian countries asked about influence. (respondent from a country Ukraine 14% Czechia) 9% representing the East. The Poverty & lower same applies China 9% standard of living to only 60% Less developed of female countries of the former Soviet bloc, as well as the East respondents. 6% geographically - on a map. (respondent from Slovakia) Eastern European countries

8 The percentages correspond to the sample of While the most common associations 6% respondents who responded “East“ or “in-between“ to the question on the page no. 7. with the West are mostly understood in Countries to the East of us 9 terms of economic benefits and a better The question was open with a possibility to write more than one country. The table refers to the percentages of quality of life, negative associations the sample of those who answered yes to the question: Do you imagine any specific country under the term dominate in relation to the East. Images of 6% “East“? Hungary is not included in the data set, as only backwardness, poverty or lower standards 14% of respondents said yes to imagining a specific under the East, i.e. the sample was too small to draw

Trends 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC of living were common across the region. East as cardinal direction conclusions. 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC

12 13 No EU-exit for Central Those who would vote to stay in case Europeans of a referendum on EU membership10 Europe Union Europe The support of EU membership among European Union European Union European young Central Europeans remains strong. Younger generation 18-24 Young professionals 25-34 On average, 70% of them would vote to stay in the EU in case of a referendum. The strong and clear support for 84% membership is also proven by the fact that only 9% would not take part in such a referendum. In case of any attempts 79% to follow the example of the United Kingdom, young Central European would not hesitate to vote “stay”. 73% 73%

On average, younger Central Europeans 70% 70% are keener to stay in the EU than their older fellow citizens; Poles are an outlier though. The highest numbers of leave- supporters were identified among Czechs 62% aged 25-34 years (25%), and 21% of Slovaks of the same age group.

56% 7 in 10 young Central Europeans would vote to stay in the EU.

Our future has to be in the EU. As a small state in the middle of the EU, we cannot play a solo game. (respondent from Czechia)

10 The percentages refer to the sample of two age groups of respondents who would vote to stay when asked question: “Imagine, that the following weekend, there will be a referendum in [your country] on its membership in the EU. How would you vote in such referendum?“

Those who would vote “To leave“: 21% of Czechs, 9% of Hungarians, 12% of Poles, 19% of Slovaks.

Those who responded “Would not take part in the referendum“: 12% of Czechs, 9% of Hungarians, 6% of Poles, 10% of Slovaks.

Those who responded “Do not know“: 5% of Czechs, 5% of Hungarians, 6% of Poles, 5% of Slovaks. GLOBSEC Youth Trends 2020 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC

European Union Czechia Hungary Poland Slovakia 02

14 15 More insight into the perception of the What values do you Young Central Europeans who The support of the EU and the EU is provided by respondents about personally associate membership is also reflected in the belief why they would stay in the EU and what believe that the values of their that the values of Central European Europe Union Europe values they associate with the EU. General with the EU? countries are in line with the values of European Union European Union European “benefits” of EU membership resonated country are in line with the values of: the EU. Hungary stays an outlier, which among all four countries. Most young confirms a trend of Hungarians standing European Union Russia United States people in the V4 believe that staying in Czechia out in terms of different perceptions

Reasons to Reasons the EU is worth it because it has more of geopolitics and orientation of their solidarity, cohesion advantages than disadvantages and 57% 57% country. However, this should not be because they see it as beneficial either for and cooperation seen as a rejection of the EU among their society or country. This notion was grants and financial support Hungarians but rather as a declaration further supported by those who voiced of an attempt to maintain a strong freedom of movement/traveling appreciation for economic benefits, EU Hungarian national identity. A similar grants and financial support specifically. 51% tendency of not identifying with the Two issues remain questionable in this values of others was demonstrated regard – first, whether general “benefits” Hungary toward the United States or Russia. were regarded only in economic and financial terms or they are also linked economic development 46% to “higher” values such as freedom and and prosperity democracy; and second, whether such On average, grants and financial support values were enough to prevail once 54% believe Central European countries are not pure solidarity, cohesion and cooperation beneficiaries of EU funds. that the EU Stay promotes 38% Slovakia peace in the solidarity, cohesion world. and cooperation With 38%, the most mentioned reason 32% 32% to leave among the young Central freedom of movement/traveling EU’s action in the world Europeans who would vote to leave the common European currency seen more positively EU was “the Brussels dictate” followed by a narrative that “the EU does not bring my On average, more than a half of young country any benefits” (13%). Both of these Central Europeans think that the EU narratives are most widespread among Poland promotes peace in the world. This is 40% 25% young Czechs. Of those who would vote and 26% more than about Russia and the solidarity, cohesion Reasons to Reasons to leave, 58% in Czechia and 34% in United States, respectively. Hungary would do so due to the so-called and cooperation 22% EU dictate and limitations of the national grants and financial support The positive perception of the EU 20% sovereignty of their country. Building on continues with the view of its policies economic development and prosperity the fears of the loss of sovereignty in the 18% 18% and its influence in the world in region, which was under the control of terms of political, economic, social or other world powers for the majority of environmental issues. On average, 51% the 20th century, these narratives are Core EU values matter for young Central of young Central Europeans perceive it commonly used among populists seeking Europeans. In 3 of 4 countries, the most positively. The EU influence in the world to find the “other” to blame for a lack of common associations with the EU among is alos viewed much more positively than progress and growth. 10% of young Poles young people were its core values of the individual influence of the alleged who would vote to leave the EU would solidarity, cohesion and cooperation. engines and leaders of the EU, France do so because of the perception that the When analysing all the responses, around (35%) and Germany (43%). However, EU does not treat their country equally to 60% of responses included abstract young people’s positive view of a country others. 11% of Hungarians would vote to values such as solidarity, freedom, safety, is not automatically passed on its leader. leave because they just “feel it that way”. democracy, etc. At the same time, the EU Please see chapter about political leaders is also strongly associated with economic on page no. 29. benefits. 60% of all responses also included mentions of economic benefits, Also, almost one fifth of young Slovaks development and prosperity. Only and Czechs did not know which values around a fifth of all values listed included to associate with the EU. For Hungary negative associations such as “Brussels and Poland, it was only around 4% of

GLOBSEC Youth Trends 2020 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC dictates”, inequality and bureaucracy. Czechia Hungary Poland Slovakia respondents. 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC Leave

16 17 Image of the US differs a quarter of their young population having presidents in a positive light and around positive attitudes and assessments of the a quarter in neutral terms. However, large The perception of the US in the eyes of US, thus lying somewhere in between differences can be observed between United StatesUnited United StatesUnited young Central Europeans differs from Slovaks and Poles. Slovaks and Poles – only 9% of Slovaks country to country. As is the case for perceive Donald Trump positively in the whole population11, Slovak youth Young Central Europeans overall see comparison to 28% for Vladimir Putin, perceives the US in the least positive light the US as a rich, strong and powerful while 33% of Poles views Trump in a among the V4. A negative portrayal of country and world player representing positive way in comparison to 9% for the US as an aggressor or manipulator is freedom. The power, however, is mostly Putin. often used in public debate, particularly not associated with peace promotion or by outlets and actors spreading its current president. Youth in the V4 are On the other hand, general perceptions conspiracies. On the other hand, young reluctant to agree with the image of the of the US as a whole, freed of any Poles follow the pro-Atlanticist trend US as a promoter of peace, while almost connection with its behaviour on the typical for their country and expressed a half of the respondents view the current international scene or leadership, stays the most positive attitudes towards the president negatively. The attitudes positive. US. On average, from two to three times towards Donald Trump among young

more young Poles see the US positively Central Europeans are comparable to 11 See GLOBSEC Trends 2019: Central & Eastern Europe than Slovaks. Czechs and Hungarians are those of Russian president Vladimir Putin 30 years after the fall of the Iron Curtain, available at https://www.globsec.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/ both usually at the same level with around - around a fifth of respondents view both GLOBSEC-Trends2019.pdf

How do you personally perceive the US in general?

Negatively/Disagree Positively/Agree

Czechia 16% 44%

Hungary 14% 46%

Poland 11% 65%

Slovakia 32% 28%

The US promotes peace in the world.

Czechia 37% 27%

Hungary 35% 25%

Poland 27% 44%

Slovakia 50% 15%

How do you personally perceive Donald Trump?

Czechia 54% 16%

Hungary 47% 19%

Poland 31% 33%

Slovakia 63% 9% GLOBSEC Youth Trends 2020 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC United States 03

18 Photo credit: Shutterstock.com 19 The question of values is a case worth Those who analysing further. While absolute The US is majorities in Slovakia, Czechia and believe that the United StatesUnited Poland, and a relative majority in perceived StatesUnited values of their Hungary, believe that the values of as a rich and their countries are in line with EU vales, country are in such identification with the US is not so powerful straightforward. The data not only show line with the country that the value-based connection is the 12 representing weakest in Hungary and Slovakia, but values of the US young Slovaks and Hungarians also have freedom, but a slightly stronger attachment to Russia in its actions terms of values than to the US. 46% on the

This tendency can also be observed by international 14 specific associations. Only around a third of all US values mentioned by young scene and Slovaks and Hungarians represented its current abstract positive terms such as freedom,

president are Power democracy, diversity or cooperation. In Poland, these were mentioned in around not seen in a Donald Trump two-thirds of all values listed. positive light.

More common associations with US values are based on power-based and materialistic terms. In the eyes 32% of young Central Europeans, the US more commonly represents a world power, strong economy, technological development, capitalism or trade. Negative associations are mostly linked to the image of a liar or greedy player, especially among Slovaks, war and 25% conflicts, and superiority and arrogance.

The tendency of low identification with other countries’ values among young Hungarians (a trend already observed 20% Opportunities for the whole population in GLOBSEC Trends 201913) is also demonstrated in the Influence question of values representation. 43% of Hungarians said “nothing” when asked what values they associate with the US. Same tendency was observed for Russia. What values do you personally do you values What

12 The exact wording of the question was: “To what extent do you believe that the values of [your country] States? associate with the United are in line with the values of the United States of America (USA)?” Diversity

Those who responded “Neither yes nor no”: 30% of Poles, 35% of Czechs, 34% of Hungarians, 33% of Slovaks. 20% Those who responded “Not in line”: 20% of Poles, 23% of Czechs, 31% of Hungarians, 35% of Slovaks.

13 See p. 17 at https://www.globsec.org/wp-content/ uploads/2017/05/GLOBSEC-Trends2019.pdf

14 American dream Welfare

The question was open with a possibility to list 3 economy Strong

values maximum. land Powerful Freedom

of young Poles associate US values

GLOBSEC Youth Trends 2020 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC PL CZ HU SK with welfare and well-being. 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC

20 21 No common In general, stronger negative stances are Russia perception of Russia expressed by young Poles and Czechs, Russia while Slovaks, and to a lesser extent Russia is Similar to the US, the perceptions of Hungarians, lean towards more positive or perceived as a Russia are different in each country. The neutral assessments when thinking about attitudes towards the “bear” are generally the country. strong country more negative than positive though. In and world general, only around a fifth of young This is visible in the questions assessing player with Central Europeans have some positive the behaviour of Russia on the world perceptions of Russia – more when talking stage, which demonstrate that Russia authoritarian about values or overall perceptions of the is seen as a rather negative force than tendencies country than its international behaviour or a force for good in the world. Positive leadership. connotations are mostly present in terms and lower of historical or cultural ties, not in the standards of assessment of its actions internationally. living.

How do you personally perceive Russia in general?

Negatively/Disagree Positively/Agree

Czechia 46% 12%

Hungary 34% 22%

Poland 53% 11%

Slovakia 25% 30%

Russia promotes peace in the world.

Czechia 58% 11%

Hungary 48% 15%

Poland 68% 8%

Slovakia 36% 22%

How do you personally perceive Vladimir Putin?

Czechia 57% 13%

Hungary 39% 24%

Poland 63% 9%

Slovakia 32% 28% Trends 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC Russia 04

22 Photo credit: Shutterstock.com 23 24

24 GLOBSEC Youth Trends 2020 Russia democracy andlower standards ofliving. rather than aregime withalackof Russia asthecountry’s economic partner might have succeededinportraying that thepoliticsofHungariangovernment strong economy, whichdemonstrates repeated “values” were natural gasand the US. Whatismore, themostoften with thecountry, aswas thecasefor name asinglevalue they would associate than therest of V4, almost50% couldnot perception ofRussia different isclearly Hungarians are outliers. Notonlytheir same country. Aswas thecasefor theUS, of young people’s understandingofthat helpsuswithaclearercountries overview ofvalues representingThe question given in Czechia andPoland. comparable pro-Russian toless societies identification withthevaluesofRussia is towards Russia inSlovakia, thedegree of the overall more positive approach values are inlinewithRussia. Despite isanoutlier-32% believeHungary their values are inlinewiththoseofRussia. and Slovakia generally donotthinktheir values, young peopleinCzechia, Poland toidentification with When itcomes evalution. Central Europeans towards lean neutral neutrally. Around 35-40% ofyoung viewcountries Russia asacountry However, relative inall majorities leader. of thepopulationwould prefer astrong conducted in2018 alsoconfirmed25% with strong leadersthough;apoll have ahistoricaltendency tosympathize strengthened duringhisrule. Slovaks also revival ofRussian aggressive behaviour as well, whichisquiteparadoxical asthe VladimirPutinpositivelylasting leader 30% ofyoung Slovaks seethelong- actions intheworld. Inaddition,almost country, i.e. Kremlin’s whennotassessing associations totheoverall picture ofthe 30% ofyoung peoplehave positive To thecontrary, inSlovakia, around negatively. the country, itsconductandleader and anabsolutemajorityperceives perceive itasathreat totheircountry opponents ofRussia. 62%ofyoung Poles showing for years, Poles are thestrongest Unsurprisingly, have asourdata been 15

values ofRussia line withthe are in country values oftheir believe that the who Those 32% HU 22% SK 18% CZ 18% PL 16 sme-demokracia-vs-autoritativny-rezim.html values maximum. 17 16 15 34% ofSlovaks,41%Czechs,49%Poles. Those whoresponded“Notinline”: 25%ofHungarians, Poles. Hungarians, 32%ofSlovaks,29%Czechs,28% Those whoresponded“Neitheryesnorno”: 33%of are inlinewiththevaluesofRussia?” extent doyoubelievethatthevaluesof[yourcountry] distrust towards Russia. Poles’underlines negative sentimentsand repeated associationswithRussia, which Poles, war andaggression were often- power, bigorstrong country. Among view country Russiain each asaworld with strength andsize. More than10% regimes, ortotalitarian and authoritarian associated Russia themostwith Young Czechs, Slovaks andPoles Thequestionwasopenwithapossibilitytolist3 https://domov.sme.sk/c/22014141/prieskum-focus-pre- Theexactwordingofthequestionwas:“To what of young Hungarians said“nothing” of three values they associatewith when asked tonameamaximum 48% Russia.

What values do you personally associate with Russia?17

Natural gas Little work Wars DictatorshipLack of freedom TotalitarianismVladimir Putin Human rights violations World power Aggression Differences between the poor and the rich 25 GLOBSEC Youth Trends 2020 Russia 26 GLOBSEC Youth Trends 2020 Threats Threats

05 their country. ofyoung Onefifth Central that Russia notposeathreat does to the USasathreat while29% believe young Central Europeans donotperceive showsquestion that,onaverage, 50% of European respondents. Thesame as muchtheUSby young Central Russia isperceived asathreat twice is afoe totheircountry. understanding ofwhoisafriendand Central Europeans have aclearer country. However, itseemsthatyoung chapters anddiffers from to country follow thepatterns observed inprevious security, whethertheUSor Russia, athreatof whoposes totheirnational Young Central Europeans’ perceptions 47% Czechia 19% Perceived asathreat 35% Hungary 15% 62% Who isperceived asathreat? Poland 19% 28% contrary to other V4 countries. contrary toother V4countries. perceive theUSasathreat thanRussia, Slovaks’ More attitudes. young Slovaks ledbyheritage Russia isreflected in US andasupposedcommonpan-Slavic of disinformation campaignsagainstthe of young Poles thinksimilarly. Theeffect athreatposes totheircountry. Only15% region, 41% donotthinkthatRussia of themostpro-Russian inthe country out.Confirmingtheimage stand clearly recognition withintheV4, young Slovaks While there are large differences inthreat nor Russia athreat poses totheircountry. andthinkthatneither theUS countries Europeans are undecidedtowards both 18 Slovakia

34% Russia United States 25% Czechia Not perceived asathreat 49% 36% Hungarians. 8% ofCzechs,7%Slovaks,4%Poles and7%of “do notknow”tothequestion.Thatcorresponds percentages isrepresentedbythosewhoresponded responded as“neitheryes,norno”, therestof While onaverage21%ofyoungCentralEuropeans Rather not,5.Definitely6.Cannotsay/Donotknow. 1. Definitelyyes,2. Rather yes,3.Neitheryesnorno, 4. a threatto[yourcountry]?”wasclosedwithoptionsof 19 18 Hungarians. 8% ofCzechs,6%Slovaks,4%Poles and6%of “do notknow”tothequestion.Thatcorresponds percentages isrepresentedbythosewhoresponded responded as“neitheryes,norno”, therestof While onaverage22%ofyoungCentralEuropeans Rather not,5.Definitely6.Cannotsay/Donotknow. 1. Definitelyyes,2. Rather yes,3.Neitheryesnorno, 4. a threatto[yourcountry]?”wasclosedwithoptionsof Hungary Thequestionasked: “DoyouthinkthatRussiaposes Thequestionasked: “DoyouthinkthattheUSposes 59% 15% Poland natural gas. 59% 41% Slovakia 19

35% 27 GLOBSEC Youth Trends 2020 Threats The top 3 reasons

Threats why Russia poses Threats Reasons a threat among Reasons the respondents why Russia who perceive why Russia Russia as a threat is a threat to their country:20 is not a threat Czechia: 1) wants to influence other countries to increase its The most common reason for Central power (23%) One fifth of young Central Europeans Europeans seeing Russia as a threat are Russia is not only a who think that Russia does not pose a We are Slavs, we have the Kremlin’s attempts to influence other threat to Poland, it is 2) had experience with Russia threat to their country think that it is a common culture On average, connected with 1968 countries and its expansionist policies an aggressive country, wanting because there is no reason for conflict. and common character traits. 18% of those invasion (15%) to increase its power. Such perceptions to grab as much as possible and This view is held by 31% and 27% of (respondent from Slovakia) who think were held by 27% of young Poles who see wanting to spread their power young Czechs and Slovaks who do not 3) disinformation (11%) Russia as a threat. On the contrary, young everywhere. (respondent from consider Russia as a threat accordingly. Russia is Hungarians are the least concerned about Poland) 23% of young Hungarians who do not not a threat Russia’s expansionist policies, with only see Russia threatening say that it is Because Poland belongs 16% mentioning it. due to good bilateral relations. One of say that it is to NATO and has allies. Hungary: the reasons might be linked to Russian (respondent from Poland) because their The second most voiced reason in the 1) other various economic involvement in the country - For several years country is not V4 for perceiving Russia as a threat was responses (17%) Russian companies have built the latest Russia has been a belief that Russia is looking for wars underground line in Budapest and Russia’s interesting for waging a hybrid war not only and stirs conflicts. Young Poles, as the 2) wants to influence state-owned Rosatom is building Paks against Czechia a has been Russia. most cautious of Russia in the region, also other countries to increase nuclear power plant in Hungary. Russia needs Hungary, “injecting” Czech public with mentioned bad historical experiences and its power (16%) A supposed pan-Slavic connection because it is the Trojan targeted disinformation and lies. deteriorated diplomatic relations. and heritage with Russia stands out horse in the EU. (respondent (respondent from Czechia) 3) shut off gas (10%) in Slovakia. 17% of those who do not from Hungary) Young Czechs also mentioned Russia’s perceive Russia as a threat mentioned 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia and that it is due to the pan-Slavic ongoing disinformation operations brotherhood.

Russia has been conducting in Central Russia is controlled Poland: We are a small and Europe. While young Slovaks voiced by a dictator who has 1) wants to influence other 20 Data refer to the percentages of the sample of those insignificant country their concerns the most in connection repeatedly proven his addiction countries to increase its who answered “Rather yes“ or “Definitely yes“ to the for Russia. (respondent from with the conflict in the Eastern Ukraine, power (27%) question: “Do you think that Russia poses a threat to to power. (respondent from [your country]?“. Bigger number of affirmative answers Czechia) their neighbour, young Hungarians were Hungary) to this question in comparison to negative answers was the decisive element for the “why“ respondes to be worried the most within the V4 about the 2) history of bad diplomatic visualised. Kremlin’s ability to shut off the flow of relations (17%)

3) unpredictable country (13%) Russians pose a threat due to their authoritarian form of governance, conceit of their government and Slovakia: bad past experience with them. 1) wants to influence other (respondent from Slovakia) countries to increase its power (17%)

2) looking for war and conflicts (12%)

3) it is a big country (12%) Trends 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC

28 29 The top 3 reasons

Threats why the US Threats Reasons Reasons does not pose a threat among the respondents who why the US why the US is do not perceive the US as a threat is a threat not a threat to their country:21 Czechia: 1) not an interesting country On average, 17% of young Central On average, 25% of young Central for the US (26%) Europeans who perceive the US as Those who do not share Europeans think that the US does not The US does not pose a threat explain that it is due to its American values often On average, pose a threat to their country because a threat to my country, 2) no reason for conflict (23%) aggressive interventionist policies and become their enemies. Also, as 15% of those their country is not interesting enough because it is our ally in NATO. wars. 29% of young Slovaks who view for the United States. This was the most a great military power, the US who perceive (respondent from Czechia) 3) elieve in similar values to ours the US as threatening think accordingly easily influences other countries. voiced reason by 37% of young Slovaks (11%) and thus represent regional outliers. The (respondent from Hungary) the US as a and 29% of young Hungarians who do not second most commonly stated reason in see the US as a threat to their country. the V4 is the huge arsenal of weapons the threat are not US interests lie US has at its disposal (9% of those who able to state The second most mentioned reason was Hungary: see the US as a threat). The third most a belief that Central Europeans have good somewhere else. The US is a threat, why. 1) not an interesting country stated reason is the current president of relations and partnerships with the US. On (respondent from Slovakia) because it starts for the US (29%) the United States, Donald Trump, who is average, 15% of young Central Europeans conflicts all round the world. quite unpopular in the region (only 19% of who do not perceive the US as a threat (respondent from Slovakia) 2) peace between all respondents perceive him positively), think accordingly, with Poles standing the countries (14%) especially among young Slovaks (63% of out – one third share this view and They don’t even know all respondents in Slovakia perceive him consider the US a partner. Moreover, 29% where Hungary is on a 3) good relations with the US (10%) negatively). of young Poles who do not view the US a map. (respondent from Hungary) The US is a world threat even strengthened this premise by superpower. It is one voicing a clear opinion that the US is the of the strongest countries and most important ally of Poland. poses a threat not only to Poland. Poland: They are our ally; US (respondent from Poland) NATO membership was mentioned mostly 1) good relations troops are stationed in with the US (33%) by young Czechs and Slovaks as a reason Poland. (respondent from Poland) why the US does not pose a threat to 2) the US is our best allies (29%) them. Donald Trump 3) not an interesting country Young Slovaks prevail in the “do not is unpredictable. for the US (13%) (respondent from Czechia) know” answers when asked to state why they perceive Russia or the US as a threat. On average, 13% of the Slovak respondents were not able to explain Slovakia: their views, the most among all Central Europeans. 1) not an interesting country for the US (37%)

21 Data refer to the percentages of the sample of those 2) no reason for conflict (14%) who answered “Rather not“ or “Definitely not“ to the question: “Do you think that the US poses a threat to [your country]?”. Larger number of negative answers to 3) we are a member of NATO (12%) this question in comparison to affirmative answers was the decisive element for the “why“ responses to be visualised. Trends 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC

30 31 (No) respect young people in Central Europe view both Trump and Putin negatively - the average Leaders for world leaders Leaders being most influenced by young Slovaks World leaders Leaders of the countries relevant for in the case of Trump and young Poles in are perceived this analysis are in general not seen in a the case of Putin (among both groups, positive light by the majority of young 63% view the given leader negatively) - positively Central Europeans. On average, a positive Emmanuel Macron is perceived the least by only 1 in 5 perception of each - Donald Trump, negatively.22 Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel or young Central Vladimir Putin – is shared by around 20% 22 Each leader was evaluated separately with a question “How do you personally perceive the following political Europeans. of young people in the V4. While Vladimir figures - [name of the leader]?“; with following responses Putin and Donald Trump share similar available: 1. Very positively, 2. Rather positively, 3. Neutrally, 4. Rather negatively, 5. Very negatively, 6. degree of (un)popularity - almost 50% of Cannot say/ do not know

Vladimir Putin is the most popular in Slovakia (28% of young Slovaks see him positively) and the least One of the exceptions in the in Poland (seen positively by 9%)– positive perception of the leaders the findings that reflect the overall is Donald Trump in Poland (33% trends of Poland being more view him positively). On the supportive of the US and Slovaks contrary, around a half of young of Russia. Young Czechs also Czechs and Hungarians and 63% do not have strong sympathies of young Slovaks view the US towards the Russian leader – 57% leader negatively. perceive him negatively. Donald Trump Vladimir Putin

Angela Merkel’s negative The image of Emmanuel Macron perception is shared by 41% is the least negative from all of Central Europeans, with the four leaders. On average, only strongest opponents to be found a quarter of young people in in Czechia (49%) and Slovakia Central Europe perceive him (46%). On the contrary, German negatively, while 44% view him as Chancellor is quite popular a neutral figure, with no striking among 27% of young people in differences between individual Hungary, whereas Poles prefer a countries. neutral stance (42%). Angela Merkel Emmanuel Macron Trends 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC 2020 Trends Youth GLOBSEC Leaders 06

32 Photo credit: Shutterstock.com 33 Opinion polls conducted by

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