East-West GLOBSEC TrendsYouth 2020 Young Central Europeans: strongly European but still Central www.globsec.org East-West 4 Introduction Authors Dominika Hajdu Research Fellow East- 8 West Katarína Klingová Senior Research Fellow Strategic Communication Programme European Methodology 14 Union The outcomes and findings of this report are based on public opinion poll surveys carried out in December 2019 on a representative sample of the population aged 18 – 34 years in four United countries in Central Europe: Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The surveys were conducted on a sample 18 States of 500 respondents (per country) using on-line panel data collection. In all countries, the profiles of the respondents were representative of the country by gender, age, size of settlement and region. For the purpose of graphical data-visualisation in this Russia report, the results were rounded to full numbers. The data collection was Glossary 22 conducted by IPSOS. Central Europe: The quotes used within the report this report uses the term in reference belong to anonymous respondents. to all countries covered by this The questionnaire included several research - Czechia, Hungary, Poland open questions, the exact wording is and Slovakia. indicated in footnotes. The responses V4 (Visegrad Four): Threats in closed questions with a scale were Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. generalised. For example, in a question Younger generation: 26 with options definitely yes/ rather yes / respondents aged 18-24 years neither yes nor no /rather no /definitely Young professionals: no, were merged to yes /neither /no. respondents aged 25-34 years Trends 2020 Trends 2020 Trends Youth Youth Leaders Youth GLOBSEC GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Contents 32 3 Countries surveyed Introduction Developments and changes in the region - and the entire world - within the last decade suggest that the next Poland years might not draw the easiest path for Central Europeans. The prospect of economic crisis, Brexit, unpredictability of transatlantic cooperation, and an ongoing information war waged by Russia have been, and will continue to be, a strong Czechia influence on public opinion across the region. Moreover, the assurance of strong transatlantic bonds based on common values is fading while many domestic Slovakia political actors use nationalistic rhetoric to further drive apart any sense of commonness. The next decades and the future of the region will, as always, depend to a great extent on the key driving force – young people. What effects do current Hungary developments have on young Central Europeans and what does it mean for the future of Central Europe? This research sheds more light on these questions. Using targeted online polling among more Trends 2020 Trends than 2,000 young people, it provides 2020 Trends deeper insight into young people’s Youth Youth perceptions of the world, the European Union (EU), the United States (US) and GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Russia. GLOBSEC Introduction 4 5 Key Findings Key incline to position see the US pri- 1) their country 4) marily as a rich, Country somewhere in strong and powerful between the East and world player. While highlights West. While the West more young Central is most commonly Europeans do not per- associated with wealth ceive the US as a threat and economic benefits, to their country, the the East is perceived most common reason Young Czechs aged more in terms of a is that they do not be- 25 – 34 are the most geographical area, lieve their countries are sceptical of the EU; such as Russia, Eastern interesting enough for Czechs also associate Europe or Ukraine. the US. the EU the most with the narrative of a supposed “Brussels dictate”. are positive see Russia 2) about the EU. 5) rather as a Young Hungarians While 7 in 10 would negative force than a identify the least with choose to stay in force for good in the others’ values from the the EU in case of a world. They tend to region; also, they do referendum on leaving, perceive it is a threat not see the West or the those who would stay mostly because of the East as represented by mentioned mostly its Kremlin’s attempts a specific country. economic benefits and to influence other freedom of movement countries and its as an argument to expansionist policies remain. to increase its power. Young Poles remain the most pro-US and the most anti-Russian country in the V4. perceive the EU 3) more positively than the US or Russia, both in terms of having Young Slovaks remain their values aligned the most pro-Russian Trends 2020 Trends with the EU, as well as 2020 Trends and the least pro-US when evaluating the Youth Youth oriented country in the Youth EU’s behaviour in the V4. world. GLOBSEC GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Young Young people in Central Europe 6 7 There has recently been much discussion in our society East-West about the geopolitical and civilisational positioning of East-West [your country]. Would you like your country to be:1 Part of the West Somewhere in-between Part of the East Slovakia 26% 58% 7% Czechia 33% 48% 3% Hungary 34% 46% 8% Poland 38% 36% 6% How about all contribute to the lack of tangible Related to that, as Central Europe has “in-between”? images of what the “West” represents achieved a certain level in its standard of today. As the results show, the majority of living, young people might have moved Several years of polling have shown young Central Europeans associate the higher on Maslow’s “hierarchy of needs”.2 increasing numbers of Central Europeans’ West with Western European countries They are becoming more engaged in leaning towards the preference of an “in- rather than the US, which indicates topics of the environment, they prefer a between” positioning, and the younger that “West” is often seen simply in work-life balance and self-realisation in generation is not differing from this trend. geographical terms – as countries lying to their lives3 and economic growth might This, however, should not be observed in the West of the V4. simply not be seen as a top priority negative terms due to several factors. anymore. This might be considered as a Third, the data prove that the image of paradox since such priorities and values First, the changing landscape of power the richer and more developed West is are often associated with the Western way distribution in the world might be causing still strongly present among many young of living. the disappearance from people’s minds Central Europeans, so the hesitancy of the original “East vs. West” dichotomy. towards choosing the West might be a On the contrary, the “East” is mostly With the Cold War’s bipolar world having result of giving up on the idea that Central seen simply in terms of countries lying vanished 30 years ago, today influence is European countries will ever reach the to the East of Central Europe, and is distributed among many continents and level of Western European countries. largely associated with negative elements actors shaping current developments. - backwardness, poverty and worse Decreasing perception of the world in standard of living (see p. 10). terms of “East” and “West” could also be Theoretically, the explained by high percentages of young West should be our 1 people choosing “do not know” as a aspiration, but we can observe a The rest of the percentages is represented by those who responded “do not know” to the question. That response. growing number of its defects. corresponds to 16% of Czechs, 10% of Slovaks, 20% of Poles and 12% of Hungarians. Unforunately, it seems that Trends 2020 Trends 2 2020 Trends Second, the West might be becoming too neither a bit better “Western“ nor An example of an article explaining the concept can be found here: abstract. With the United Kingdom leaving a worse “Eastern“ path is right for https://www.thoughtco.com/maslows-hierarchy-of- Youth Youth Youth needs-4582571 the EU, criticism and the lack of unity us. (respondent from Czechia) among NATO members, and decreasing 3 Example of a study on millennials: https://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/about- GLOBSEC GLOBSEC East- West US engagement in Central Europe might deloitte/articles/millennialsurvey.html GLOBSEC 01 8 9 Seeing the world If you imagine a specific country through countries 7 East-West under the “West”, which one(s)? East-West What do you In Czechia and Slovakia, general perception of both the West and East is also strongly connected to the image of specific countries. A specific country Czechia came to mind for 48% of young Czechs imagine under and almost 58% of young Slovaks when Germany 47% asked about what they generally imagine under the West.5 In Slovakia, more young people associate the West with a specific US 40% the West? country or geographical area than with an attribute or character. France 23% The strongest association with the West Most common associations is related to wealth - around a quarter Not seeing the world 4 of all respondents imagine rich or more with the West: through countries UK 19% economically developed countries under this term. This association was On the contrary, young Hungarians 31% most common in Hungary, where it was generally dismiss the idea of having either mentioned in almost 50% of all responses. West or East associated with a specific Associations regarding economic benefits country - only 11% of those who would Poland were generally much more common Economically position their country in the West or “in- than value-based perceptions in all the between” said they imagine an individual V4 countries. Despite the fact that the country when we say “West” and 14% of Germany 67% US was mentioned most often, common those who would position Hungary either references to Germany, Western Europe developed in the East or “in-between”.6 or France combined indicate that the US 11% understanding of the West is strongly When asked specifically about the related to Western Europe among young country they imagine under the West, Central Europeans.