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PV Market Update PV Market Update Modified from Q4 2017/Q1 2018 Solar Market Update David Feldman, NREL Jack Hoskins, DOE Robert Margolis, NREL Kelsey Horowitz, NREL MOSAIC Annual Review Meeting, May 15th – 16th, 2018 Markets and Installations NREL | 2 Top PV Markets Cumulative PV Deployment - 2017 (415 GW) Annual PV Deployment - 2017 (98 GW) Rest of World, 29 Rest of Rest of World, Europe, 6 6 Germany, 2 Rest of Europe, 70 China, 135 United States, 11 Germany, 42 Rest of Asia, 3 China, 53 India, 10 Japan, 49 United States, 51 Rest of Asia, India, 21 Japan, 8 17 NREL | 3 Source: BNEF (2018). Chinese Market Update • BNEF attributes China’s record 53 GW of new PV in 2017 to the sudden increase in quota allocation by the Chinese government in August 2017. • Of the 130 GW of PV installed at the end of 2017, BNEF estimates that 30 GW were distributed PV (70% of which were located on rooftops). – Going forward, BNEF expects a higher percentage of rooftop PV systems in China • Anticipated FiT cuts lead to an expected installation rush in Q2 and Q4 of 2018. • BNEF reports that policies supporting greater renewable integration, along with power demand growth, helped reduce solar curtailment to 6% in 2017. – However, certain regions suffer from curtailment as high as 16%; to address this, China has reduced build-quotas in these regions. NREL | 4 Source: BNEF, “1H 2018 China Market Outlook.” March 2018. The median analyst figures estimate 470 GW of Annual Global PV Demand PV will be installed globally from 2018 to 2021, more than doubling current installed capacity. Annual Global PV Installations by Market 160 Europe DC) - 140 ROW 120 India 100 Japan China 80 U.S. 60 40 20 PV Annual Installations (GW Annual Installations PV 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P NREL | 5 Sources: BNEF (April 2018); Deutsche Bank (01/05/18); Goldman Sachs (01/09/18); GTM Research (January 2018); IHS Technology (March 2018). • The United States installed 10.6 GW-DC of Annual U.S. PV Demand Projections PV in 2017, cumulative capacity reached 51.6 GW. 18 • The drop in deployment is expected to 16 Utility-scale come mostly from the utility-scale sector, 14 Non-Res. with only the residential sector expanding. DC) Residential - 12 • Market contraction in 2017 and 2018 has been attributed to: 10 – Section 201 tariffs on PV modules 8 – Pipeline depletion caused by the 2016 rush to 6 obtain a 30% tax credit (which was later PV Annual Installations (GW extended through 2019) 4 – A lull in deployment before the 2019 rush to 2 obtain the full federal tax credit before it begins declining in 2020 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P – Slowing of growth in the top U.S. markets. NREL | 6 Sources: BNEF (April 2018); Deutsche Bank (01/05/18); Goldman Sachs (01/09/18); GTM Research (March 2018); IHS Technology (March 2018). U.S. Installation Breakdown In 2017, new PV installations have had a fair geographic mix across the United States, with by State 5 GW-DC installed east of the Mississippi. UPV Installed Capacity, Top 10 States, as of DPV Installed Capacity, Top 10 States, as of December 2017 (MW-AC) December 2017 (MW-AC) California 9,390 California 6,605 3,222 1,279 Arizona 1,704 Massachusetts 1,198 1,685 989 Texas 1,222 Arizona 988 975 619 Utah 857 Hawaii 574 647 461 Massachusetts 612 Connecticut 333 516 326 Rest of U.S. 4,079 Rest of U.S. 2,852 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,00010,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 NREL | 7 Sources: EIA, “Electric Power Monthly,” forms EIA-023, EIA-826, and EIA-861 (January 2017). Leading U.S. Cities 400 • Top 10 cities constitute about 4% of total installed U.S. PV capacity. 350 • It’s estimated that these cities are only 300 using 4%–13% of their technical potential 250 for rooftop installations. 200 150 100 Cumulative PV Installed (MW) Installed PV Cumulative 50 0 NREL | 8 Source: “Shining Cities Harnessing the Benefits of Solar Energy in America.” Spring 2018. System Pricing From Select In addition to price differences based on States, H1 2018 system size, there is also variation between states and within individual markets. $6 Bars represent the median, DC) - $5 with error bars representing th th $4 80 and 20 percentiles $3 $2 $1 System Price ($/W System $0 AZ CA MA NY AZ CA MA NY CA MA NY CA MA NY 2.5–10 kW 10–100 kW 100–500 kW 500 kW–5 MW Preliminary H1 2018 MW: AZ (48), CA (47), MA (13), NY (72) Note: California pricing data before 2015 are collected from the California Solar Initiative database. CA NEM data have only been reported through November 2017. Sources: CA NEM database; MA SREC program; Arizona Public Services and Salt River Project; NY PV Incentive Program. All programs accessed 01/17/2018. NREL | 9 In a select data set of utility-scale PV systems Utility-Owned PV Pricing (>5 MW) (68 projects totaling 1.4 GW-AC) from 15 regulated utilities, the median system price in 2017 was $2.16/W-AC ($1.66/W-DC). $12 Individual Projects ($/W-AC) $10 10 2017 Projects ($/W-DC) MW Median ($/W-AC) $8 C. Weighted Avg. ($/W-AC) $6 $4 Installed Cost ($/W) Cost Installed $2 $0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Project Completion Year Sources: FERC Form 1 filings from the from the following utilities: Alabama Power, Allete, Arizona Public Service, Duke Energy, Flower Power and Light, Georgia Power, Indiana Michigan Power, Nevada Power, NREL | 10 Pacific Gas and Electric, Public Service of New Mexico, Southern California Edison, Tucson Electric, United Illuminating, UNS Electric, Virginia Electric. Manufacturing and Supply NREL | 11 Global Annual PV Shipments by Region* • From 2004 to 2017 the 100 CAGR of global PV shipments was 41%, with 90 Rest of Asia growth coming mostly 80 Malaysia from Asia. Taiwan 70 – In 2005, Japan, the United China 60 States, and Europe Japan shipped 92% of global PV 50 EU modules, falling to 5% in 40 U.S. 2017. 30 – The United States supplied approximately 0.5% of 20 Module PV (GW) Shipments global PV modules in 10 2017. 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 *Note: Excludes inventory sales and outsourcing. NREL | 12 Source: 2007-2017: Paula Mints. "Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity, Shipments, Price & Revenues 2017/2018." SPV Market Research. Report SPV-Supply6. April 2018. Global Annual PV Shipments by Technology* 100% • Mono c-Si grew its global 80% market share from 35% in 2015 to 45% in 2017 as 60% companies ramped p-type PERC manufacturing. 40% technology • Thin-film technologies 20% continue to lose market % of global PV shipments by by shipments PV global % of 0% share, falling to 4% in 2017. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Multi c-Si Mono c-Si Ribbon c-Si a-Si CdTe CIGS/CIS *Note: Excludes inventory sales and outsourcing. Sources: 2007-2017: Paula Mints. "Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity, Shipments, Price & Revenues NREL | 13 2017/2018." SPV Market Research. Report SPV-Supply6. April 2018. PVTech (April 2018). Global Leading PV Manufacturers, by Shipments Rank Manufacturer Shipments Manufacturer Shipments Manufacturer Shipments (2017) (GW) (2016) (GW) (2007) (GW) 1 JA Solar 6.5 Trina 5.0 Sharp 0.4 2 Canadian Solar 5.4 JA Solar 4.9 Q-Cells 0.3 3 Zhongli Talesun 5.0 Hanwha 4.0 Suntech 0.3 4 Jinko Solar 4.9 Jinko Solar 3.9 Kyocera 0.2 5 Trina Solar 4.8 Motech 2.9 First Solar 0.2 6 LONGi 4.5 First Solar 2.7 Motech 0.2 7 Hanwha 4.2 Longi Lerri 2.7 Sanyo 0.2 8 Tonjwei 3.8 Canadian Solar 2.4 SolarWorld 0.1 9 Motech 3.2 Yingli 2.4 Mitsubishi 0.1 10 Aiko 3.1 Shunfeng- 2.2 SunPower 0.1 Suntech Other 45.5 36.4 1.0 *Note: Excludes inventory sales and outsourcing. TotalSource: 2007-2017: Paula Mints. "Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity,91.9 Shipments, Price & Revenues 69.5 3.0NREL | 14 2017/2018." SPV Market Research. Report SPV-Supply6. April 2018. PV Manufacturers’ Margins • The tracked companies had almost no change in median gross margin in 2017. 40% However, there was a sharp fall in the 30% median operating margin, from 2% in Q3 20% 2017 to -5% in Q4 2017. 10% – The lower operating margin was not s n i g necessarily systemic as the companies r 0% a M Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 with lower margins reported: -10% '10 '10 '11 '11 '12 '12 '13 '13 '14 '14 '15 '15 '16 '16 '17 '17 • Lower reported quarterly sales due to -20% project delays (First Solar) Gross Margin (Median) -30% Operating Median (Median) • One-time bad debt expense (Hanwha) -40% • One-time impairment charge of residential lease assets (SunPower) Line represents the median, with error bars representing 80th and 20th percentiles for the following companies: Canadian Solar, First Solar, Hanwha Q Cells, JA Solar, Jinko Solar, SunPower, and Yingli Solar. NREL | 15 Sources: Company figures based on Q4 2017 (and previous) SEC filings by the respective companies. • YieldCos continue to get higher margins than other Gross Margin Across Supply sectors of the supply chain, with wide variance among Chain individual Yieldcos, which had gross margins ranging from 15% to 90% in 2017.
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