PV Market Update

Modified from Q4 2017/Q1 2018 Solar Market Update

David Feldman, NREL Jack Hoskins, DOE Robert Margolis, NREL

Kelsey Horowitz, NREL

MOSAIC Annual Review Meeting, May 15th – 16th, 2018 Markets and Installations

NREL | 2 Top PV Markets

Cumulative PV Deployment - 2017 (415 GW) Annual PV Deployment - 2017 (98 GW)

Rest of World, 29 Rest of Rest of World, Europe, 6 6 Germany, 2 Rest of Europe, 70 China, 135 United States, 11 Germany, 42 Rest of Asia, 3 China, 53 India, 10 Japan, 49 United States, 51 Rest of Asia, India, 21 Japan, 8 17 NREL | 3 Source: BNEF (2018). Chinese Market Update

• BNEF attributes China’s record 53 GW of new PV in 2017 to the sudden increase in quota allocation by the Chinese government in August 2017. • Of the 130 GW of PV installed at the end of 2017, BNEF estimates that 30 GW were distributed PV (70% of which were located on rooftops). – Going forward, BNEF expects a higher percentage of rooftop PV systems in China • Anticipated FiT cuts lead to an expected installation rush in Q2 and Q4 of 2018. • BNEF reports that policies supporting greater renewable integration, along with power demand growth, helped reduce solar curtailment to 6% in 2017. – However, certain regions suffer from curtailment as high as 16%; to address this, China has reduced build-quotas in these regions.

NREL | 4 Source: BNEF, “1H 2018 China Market Outlook.” March 2018. The median analyst figures estimate 470 GW of Annual Global PV Demand PV will be installed globally from 2018 to 2021, more than doubling current installed capacity.

Annual Global PV Installations by Market 160

Europe DC)

- 140 ROW 120 India 100 Japan China 80 U.S. 60 40 20

PV Annual Installations (GW Annual Installations PV 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P

NREL | 5 Sources: BNEF (April 2018); Deutsche Bank (01/05/18); Goldman Sachs (01/09/18); GTM Research (January 2018); IHS Technology (March 2018). • The United States installed 10.6 GW-DC of Annual U.S. PV Demand Projections PV in 2017, cumulative capacity reached 51.6 GW. 18 • The drop in deployment is expected to 16 Utility-scale come mostly from the utility-scale sector,

14 Non-Res. with only the residential sector expanding.

DC) Residential - 12 • Market contraction in 2017 and 2018 has been attributed to: 10 – Section 201 tariffs on PV modules 8 – Pipeline depletion caused by the 2016 rush to 6 obtain a 30% tax credit (which was later

PV Annual PV Installations (GW extended through 2019) 4 – A lull in deployment before the 2019 rush to 2 obtain the full federal tax credit before it begins declining in 2020 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P – Slowing of growth in the top U.S. markets.

NREL | 6 Sources: BNEF (April 2018); Deutsche Bank (01/05/18); Goldman Sachs (01/09/18); GTM Research (March 2018); IHS Technology (March 2018). U.S. Installation Breakdown In 2017, new PV installations have had a fair geographic mix across the United States, with by State 5 GW-DC installed east of the Mississippi.

UPV Installed Capacity, Top 10 States, as of DPV Installed Capacity, Top 10 States, as of December 2017 (MW-AC) December 2017 (MW-AC)

California 9,390 California 6,605 3,222 1,279 Arizona 1,704 Massachusetts 1,198 1,685 989 Texas 1,222 Arizona 988 975 619 Utah 857 Hawaii 574 647 461 Massachusetts 612 Connecticut 333 516 326 Rest of U.S. 4,079 Rest of U.S. 2,852 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,00010,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

NREL | 7 Sources: EIA, “Electric Power Monthly,” forms EIA-023, EIA-826, and EIA-861 (January 2017). Leading U.S. Cities

400 • Top 10 cities constitute about 4% of total installed U.S. PV capacity. 350 • It’s estimated that these cities are only 300 using 4%–13% of their technical potential 250 for rooftop installations. 200 150 100

Cumulative PV Installed (MW) Installed PV Cumulative 50 0

NREL | 8 Source: “Shining Cities Harnessing the Benefits of Solar Energy in America.” Spring 2018. System Pricing From Select In addition to price differences based on States, H1 2018 system size, there is also variation between states and within individual markets.

Bars represent the median, DC) - $5 with error bars representing th th $4 80 and 20 percentiles $3 $2 $1

System ($/W Price System $0 AZ CA MA NY AZ CA MA NY CA MA NY CA MA NY 2.5–10 kW 10–100 kW 100–500 kW 500 kW–5 MW Preliminary H1 2018 MW: AZ (48), CA (47), MA (13), NY (72) Note: California pricing data before 2015 are collected from the California Solar Initiative database. CA NEM data have only been reported through November 2017. Sources: CA NEM database; MA SREC program; Arizona Public Services and Salt River Project; NY PV Incentive Program. All programs accessed 01/17/2018.

NREL | 9 In a select data set of utility-scale PV systems Utility-Owned PV Pricing (>5 MW) (68 projects totaling 1.4 GW-AC) from 15 regulated utilities, the median system price in 2017 was $2.16/W-AC ($1.66/W-DC). $12 Individual Projects ($/W-AC) $10 10 2017 Projects ($/W-DC) MW Median ($/W-AC) $8 C. Weighted Avg. ($/W-AC) $6

$4 Installed Cost ($/W) Cost Installed $2

$0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Project Completion Year

Sources: FERC Form 1 filings from the from the following utilities: Alabama Power, Allete, Arizona Public Service, Duke Energy, Flower Power and Light, Georgia Power, Indiana Michigan Power, Nevada Power, NREL | 10 Pacific Gas and Electric, Public Service of New Mexico, Southern California Edison, Tucson Electric, United Illuminating, UNS Electric, Virginia Electric. Manufacturing and Supply

NREL | 11 Global Annual PV Shipments by Region* • From 2004 to 2017 the 100 CAGR of global PV shipments was 41%, with 90 Rest of Asia growth coming mostly 80 Malaysia from Asia. Taiwan 70 – In 2005, Japan, the United China 60 States, and Europe Japan shipped 92% of global PV 50 EU modules, falling to 5% in 40 U.S. 2017. 30 – The United States supplied approximately 0.5% of 20 Module PV (GW) Shipments global PV modules in 10 2017. 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 *Note: Excludes inventory sales and outsourcing. NREL | 12 Source: 2007-2017: Paula Mints. "Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity, Shipments, Price & Revenues 2017/2018." SPV Market Research. Report SPV-Supply6. April 2018. Global Annual PV Shipments by Technology*

100% • Mono c-Si grew its global 80% market share from 35% in 2015 to 45% in 2017 as 60% companies ramped p-type PERC manufacturing.

40% technology • Thin-film technologies 20%

continue to lose market % of global PV shipments by by shipments PV global of %

0% share, falling to 4% in 2017. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Multi c-Si Mono c-Si Ribbon c-Si a-Si CdTe CIGS/CIS

*Note: Excludes inventory sales and outsourcing. Sources: 2007-2017: Paula Mints. "Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity, Shipments, Price & Revenues NREL | 13 2017/2018." SPV Market Research. Report SPV-Supply6. April 2018. PVTech (April 2018). Global Leading PV Manufacturers, by Shipments

Rank Manufacturer Shipments Manufacturer Shipments Manufacturer Shipments (2017) (GW) (2016) (GW) (2007) (GW) 1 JA Solar 6.5 Trina 5.0 Sharp 0.4 2 Canadian Solar 5.4 JA Solar 4.9 Q-Cells 0.3 3 Zhongli Talesun 5.0 Hanwha 4.0 Suntech 0.3 4 Jinko Solar 4.9 Jinko Solar 3.9 Kyocera 0.2 5 Trina Solar 4.8 Motech 2.9 First Solar 0.2 6 LONGi 4.5 First Solar 2.7 Motech 0.2 7 Hanwha 4.2 Longi Lerri 2.7 Sanyo 0.2 8 Tonjwei 3.8 Canadian Solar 2.4 SolarWorld 0.1 9 Motech 3.2 Yingli 2.4 Mitsubishi 0.1 10 Aiko 3.1 Shunfeng- 2.2 SunPower 0.1 Suntech Other 45.5 36.4 1.0 *Note: Excludes inventory sales and outsourcing. TotalSource: 2007-2017: Paula Mints. "Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity,91.9 Shipments, Price & Revenues 69.5 3.0NREL | 14 2017/2018." SPV Market Research. Report SPV-Supply6. April 2018. PV Manufacturers’ Margins • The tracked companies had almost no change in median gross margin in 2017. 40% However, there was a sharp fall in the 30% median operating margin, from 2% in Q3

20% 2017 to -5% in Q4 2017.

10% – The lower operating margin was not

g necessarily systemic as the companies r 0%

M Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 with lower margins reported: -10% '10 '10 '11 '11 '12 '12 '13 '13 '14 '14 '15 '15 '16 '16 '17 '17 • Lower reported quarterly sales due to -20% project delays (First Solar) Gross Margin (Median) -30% Operating Median (Median) • One-time bad debt expense (Hanwha) -40% • One-time impairment charge of residential lease assets (SunPower)

Line represents the median, with error bars representing 80th and 20th percentiles for the following companies: Canadian Solar, First Solar, Hanwha Q Cells, JA Solar, Jinko Solar, SunPower, and Yingli Solar. NREL | 15 Sources: Company figures based on Q4 2017 (and previous) SEC filings by the respective companies. • YieldCos continue to get higher margins than other Gross Margin Across Supply sectors of the supply chain, with wide variance among Chain individual Yieldcos, which had gross margins ranging from 15% to 90% in 2017.

100% 80%

y 60%

u 40%

n 20%

p 0%

s o '10 '12 '14 '16 '10 '12 '14 '16 '10 '12 '14 '16 '10 '12 '14 '16 '10 '12 '14 '16 '10 '12 '14 '16 '10 '12 '14 '16

s C -20%

G Polysilicon Wafers Cells/Modules Equipment Inverters Integrators IPP/YieldCo

n -40%

e -60%

M -80% -100%

Sources: Company figures based on Q4 2017 (and previous) SEC filings by the respective companies. Error bars represent high and low values of surveyed companies. Companies surveyed are: Wafers - LDK Solar, ReneSola, SAS Wafers, Wafer Works Corp., Solargiga; Poly - GCL-Poly, REC Silicon, Wacker, LDK Solar; Cells/Modules, Gintech, Motech, First Solar, JA Solar, Yingli, Trina Solar, Canadian, PV Crystalox Solar ,Hanwha SolarOne, Jinko Solar, SunPower, LDK Solar; Integrators - Real Goods Solar, SolarCity, Vivint, SunEdison; Inverters - Power-One, SMA, Satcon, Enphase NREL | 16 Energy, Advanced Energy Industries; IPP/Yieldco - Abengoa Yield, NRG Yield, NextEra Energy Partners, Northland Power Inc., Pattern Energy, Terraform Power, Sky Solar Holdings. • There was a wide variation in operating margins in Operating Margin Across 2017 as companies tried to gain market share and Supply Chain pursue new strategies. – There was substantial variation across the supply Operating margin is not necessarily an indicator of corporate chain as integrators sacrifice short-term profits to profitability, though with strong margins companies should scale rapidly. eventually figure a way to profitability.

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% '10 '12 '14 '16 '10 '12 '14 '16 '10 '12 '14 '16 '10 '12 '14 '16 '10 '12 '14 '16 '10 '12 '14 '16 '11 '13 '15 '17 Companies -20% Polysilicon Wafers Cells/Modules Equipment Inverters Integrators IPP/YieldCo

-40%

-60% MedianOperating Margin of Surveyed

-80% Sources: Company figures based on Q4 2017 (and previous) SEC filings by the respective companies. Error bars represent high and low values of surveyed companies. Companies surveyed are: Wafers - LDK Solar, ReneSola, SAS Wafers, Wafer Works Corp., Solargiga; Poly - GCL-Poly, REC Silicon, Wacker, LDK Solar; Cells/Modules, Gintech, Motech, First Solar, JA Solar, Yingli, Trina Solar, Canadian, PV Crystalox Solar ,Hanwha SolarOne, Jinko Solar, SunPower, LDK Solar; Integrators - Real Goods Solar, SolarCity, Vivint, SunEdison; Inverters - Power-One, SMA, Satcon, Enphase NREL | 17 Energy, Advanced Energy Industries; IPP/Yieldco - Abengoa Yield, NRG Yield, NextEra Energy Partners, Northland Power Inc., Pattern Energy, Terraform Power, Sky Solar Holdings. PV Efficiency Improvements • Mono c-Si, multi c-Si, and CIGS all achieved world records in the lab in 2017. 35% – Despite Solar Frontier’s world

30% Shockley–Queisser limit 29.4% record achievement for CIGS, the Mono (WR) 26.1% company continues to sell modules 25% CIGS (WR) 22.9% well below the efficiency of other 22.3% 22.1% 20% Multi (WR) products. 17.9% CdTe (WR) Yingli Module (P-Type Mono Best) 17.1% 15% First Solar Module (Best) 17.0% • CdTe now has virtually the same Yingli Module (Multi Best) 13.8% Conversion Efficiency Conversion Solar Frontier Module (Best) module efficiency as multi in the 10% marketplace.

5% – Standard p-type mono modules still have a ~1% efficiency 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 advantage over multi and CdTe.

Note: WR denotes “World Record.” NREL | 18 Sources:Corporate press releases and public filings, NREL World Records. U.S. Module and Cell Manufacturing • Due to an increased competitive landscape, U.S. manufacturers closed down production lines to switch to more advanced designs (e.g., First Solar) or caused by bankruptcies (e.g., Suniva, SolarWorld).

1600 • In 2017, the United States produced approximately Excess capacity 260 MW of PV cells and 970 MW of PV modules—a 1400 Production decrease of 66% and 43%, respectively, year over year. 1200 – U.S.-produced c-Si cells represented 39% of U.S.- 1000 produced c-Si modules in 2017. – U.S.-produced PV modules represented 9% of 800 annual U.S. PV installations in 2017. 600

400 • U.S. c-Si cell, c-Si module, and thin-film module

U.S U.S Manufacturing PV (MW) manufacturing had utilization rates of 29%, 47%, and 200 57% in 2017, respectively. 0

– With the implementation of tariffs on imported

2016 2013 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2010 PV modules in the beginning of 2018, and First c-Si Cells c-Si Modules Thin-film Solar’s Series 6 production ramp-up, the United States has the potential to produce significantly more PV modules and cells in 2018.

NREL | 19 Source: GTM Research & SEIA, “U.S. Solar Market Insight: Year-in-Review” (2011-2018). Section 201 Trade Case & Other Trade Updates • On February 7, 2018, the United States began imposing safeguard tariffs for imported c-Si PV cells and modules. • The tariffs begin at 30% ad valorem in 2018 and decrease to 15% by 2021 • Exemption on the first 2.5 GW of imported PV cells per year. • GTM Research’s updated U.S. PV deployment forecast in March 2018 was 13% lower than what was projected before the tariffs were put in place. • In addition to the module and cell tariffs, the U.S. codified new steel (25%) and aluminum (10%) import tariffs, which GTM Research estimates will add an additional 2%–5% to PV system costs.

Sources: Greentech Median (February 2018); GTM Research (March 2018); PV Magazine (April 2018). NREL | 20 U.S. Manufacturing April Updates

• JinkoSolar confirmed it plans to invest $50MM to build a 400 MW module assembly plant in Jacksonville, Florida. Jacksonville city council had approved $24MM in incentives to attract a foreign manufacturer.

• SunPower announced it would purchase SolarWorld Americas. It plans to use the Oregon cell and module factory (currently with 430 MW of cell and 500 MW of module capacity) to manufacture its lower efficiency P-Series solar panels, as well as SolarWorld legacy products.

• First Solar announced it would make an initial $400MM investment in Ohio to build a 1.2-GW capacity plant to manufacture its large-format Series 6 modules, employing 500 workers. – This would triple its U.S. manufacturing capacity and bring its global manufacturing capacity to 7.6 GW (with plants in Malaysia and Vietnam). – Instead of the tariffs, First Solar cited recent U.S. tax reform and “favorable business environment” as reasons for its decision. It also said that its new large format cells reduce the labor benefits of producing panels abroad. – Their CEO said the new factory can also leverage its R&D and existing manufacturing in Ohio.

Sources: Greentech Media (April 2018); GTM Research (March 2018); PV Magazine (April 2018); Reuters (April 2018). NREL | 21 Component Pricing

NREL | 22 PV Value Chain Spot Pricing

$0.8 • BNEF reported a slow in price drop $0.7 across the value chain in March

$0.6 2018 due to anticipation of an active Q2 in China. $0.5 • Wafer prices fell the most in the first $0.4 quarter of 2018 due to strong $0.3 competition, followed by cells and $0.2

Average Selling Average Selling Price($/W) polysilicon. $0.1 • BNEF also reported that Chinese

$0.0 manufacturers had a low shipment- to-capacity ratio in the first 2 months of 2018. Poly Wafers Cells Modules (large buyers) Modules (small buyers)

Sources. “Modules (large buyers)” from PVInsights, accessed 01/17/18. Remaining pricing data from BNEF Solar Spot Price Index (04/24/18). Kilogram to Watt conversion: 4.78 grams per NREL | 23 watt (2016); 4.73 grams per watt (2017, 2018), from Cowen & Co. (05/11/17); Deutsche Bank (07/19/17). BNEF, “March 2018 PV Index: Supply, Shipments and Prices” (April 2018). Module Average Selling Price— • Since tariffs were placed on Chinese Global vs. U.S. modules in 2012, modules in the United States have sold at a premium $0.8 to the global average $0.7 U.S. Global – This trend was narrowing through 2016 $0.6 due to increased manufacturing capacity in other parts of Asia. $0.5 • In 2017, the price gap widened again $0.4 due to market fears of another tariff $0.3 being placed on imported cells and modules. PV Module ASP ($/W) ASP Module PV $0.2 – Modules sold in the United States in $0.1 Q4 2017 were 26% higher than modules sold in the United States in Q1 2017 and $0.0 52% higher than the global average. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 201520152015201520162016201620162017201720172017

Sources. U.S. (GTM Research / SEIA); Global (PV Insights / Mercom). NREL | 24 In Q4 2017, module costs were reported PV Manufacturers’ Cost between $0.33 and $0.35. As prices have come down, fewer and fewer companies are reporting prices.

First Solar $0.70 Yingli Trina Solar $0.60 Canadian Solar Hanwha SolarOne $0.50 Jinko Solar REC Solar $0.40

$0.30 Module Cost ($/W) Cost Module $0.20

$0.10

$0.00 Q4 '13 Q4 '14 Q4 '15 Q4 '16 Q4 '17

Sources: Company figures based on Q4 2017 (and previous) SEC filings by the respective companies. Deutsche Bank (07/18/17 (02/25/18). NREL | 25 Near-Term Module Regional module preferences and tariffs could impact actual pricing in the United Price/Cost Projections States, Europe, India, and elsewhere.

$0.8 ASP $0.7 Cost $0.61 $0.6 $0.54 $0.55 $0.5 $0.48 $0.44 $0.43 $0.4 $0.37 $0.35 $0.33

$/Watt $0.30 $0.31 $0.27 $0.29 $0.27 $0.3 $0.26 $0.24 $0.2

$0.1

$0.0 2014 2015 2016 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P

Sources: Lines represent the median estimates, and error bars represent the maximum and minimum, ASP and costs for First Solar and industry averages from the following analysts: BNEF (February 2018); Deutsche Bank (February 2018); Goldman Sachs (May 2017, January 2018); GTM NREL | 26 Research (December 2017); IHS Markit, Technology Group, PV Integrated Market Tracker, December 2017. Thank You

www.nrel.gov

NREL/PR-6A20-71493

Special thanks to: Sarah Kurtz, Parthiv Kurup, Jeff Logan, Mary Lukkonen, Mark Mehos, Mike Meshek, Dave Mooney, and Craig Turchi. List of Acronyms and Abbreviations

• AC alternating current • MM million • ASP average selling price • MW megawatt • B billion • MWh megawatt-hour • BNEF Bloomberg New Energy Finance • NEM net energy metering • CAPEX capital expenditures • O&M operation and maintenance

• CO2 carbon dioxide • PERC passivated emitter rear cell • C-Si crystalline silicon • PPA power purchase agreement • CSP concentrating solar power • PSC public service commission • DC direct current • PV photovoltaic • DPU department of public utilities • Q quarter • DPV distributed photovoltaic system • R&D research and development • EIA Energy Information Administration • ROW rest of world • ETF exchange traded fund • RPS renewable portfolio standards • EU European Union • SEC United States Securities Exchange Commission • FiT feed-in-tariff • SG&A selling, general, and administrative expenses • G&A general and administrative expenses • SREC solar renewable energy certificate • GW gigawatt • UPV utility-scale photovoltaic system • IBC interdigitated back contact • USITC United States International Trade Commission • IPP independent power producer • W watt • ITC investment tax credit • WTO World Trade Organization • kW kilowatt • y/y year over year • kWh kilowatt-hour • LCOE levelized cost of energy • MLPE module-level power electronics NREL | 28 Section 201 Trade Case Import Data

• Historically there have been spikes in imported PV cells and PV Module and Cell Imports into U.S. ($MM) modules to meet increased levels of demand (e.g., 2016). Meeting 2016 Pre-tariff • The spike in imported PV cells and modules into the United 1,000 demand imports 60 States from August 2017 to January 2018 was likely done to 900 modules (left axis) avoid potential Section 201 tariffs. 50 800 cells (right axis) – The imports are particularly pronounced when 700 40 considering the drop in global costs of cells and 600 modules. 500 30 – During that 6-month period, an estimated 8 GW of PV 400 cells and modules were imported into the United 20 300 States. 200

10 Cell PV Imports intoU.S. ($MM)

PV Module PV Imports U.S. into ($MM) 100

0 0

Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17

May-14 May-13 May-15 May-16 May-17

Sources: Imports, by value: U.S. International Trade Commission, 2018. NREL | 29 State Actions on Distributed Solar—Q1 2018

• 40 states and D.C. took 149 actions on distributed solar • In January 2018, Massachusetts DPU approved policy and rate design during Q1 2018. Eversource’s mandatory demand charge for new net-metering customers—the first mandatory Policy Type # of Actions % by Type # of States residential demand charge by an IOU in the United Residential fixed charge or States. minimum bill increase 49 33% 26 DG compensation rules 39 26% 25 + DC • A Montana utility, NorthWestern Energy, published DG valuation or net metering a cost-benefit study, finding the net value of solar study 21 14% 17 + DC Community solar 18 12% 15 to be between $0.042/kWh and $0.046/kWh,

Residential demand or solar including CO2, and between $0.035/kWh and charge 10 7% 5 + DC $0.038/kWh without. Third-party ownership of solar 8 5% 3+ DC • Utilities in North Carolina and Virginia proposed Utility-led rooftop PV programs 4 3% 4 Total 149 100% 40 States + DC community solar programs in Q1 2018 and New Jersey passed legislation in April 2018, enabling the establishment of community solar programs.

Sources: North Carolina Clean Energy Technology Center, The 50 States of Solar: Q1 2018 Quarterly Report, April 2018. PV Magazine (April 2018). NREL | 30 State Actions on Solar—April 2018

• Michigan PSC replaced its net-metering system with one that credits exported energy at “avoided cost.”

• Florida PSC voted to allow Sunrun to sell its lease product in the state. Florida still bars the third-party sale of electricity, but Sunrun made changes to its contract, including removing its performance guarantee.

• Hawaii governor signed a law mandating performance-based utility regulation, breaking the link between utility revenues and capital investments. The new business model will base revenues on metrics like customer satisfaction, renewable energy integration, and data sharing.

• New Jersey passed legislation to increase its RPS to 50% by 2030 and behind-the-meter solar to 5.1% by 2021. – The bills close the SREC program in 2021 and direct regulators to move to a different program for distributed solar. – The bill sets storage targets of 600 MW in 2021 and 2 GW in 2030 and enables the establishment of community solar programs.

Sources: Greentech Media (April 2018); PV Magazine (April 2018); UtilityDive (April 2018). NREL | 31 • As China grows its electricity infrastructure, it has Chinese Generation Capacity rapidly incorporated non-carbon sources of Additions by Source electricity generation. – Since 2009, China has doubled its installed • In 2017, solar contributed 42% to new generation capacity electric generation capacity, and at the same in China (53 GW) and 7% of cumulative capacity (130 GW). time reduced the percentage of total coal and – 2017 is the first year that wind and solar contributed gas capacity from 74% to 62%. over half of all new electric generation in China (55%). – From 2010 to 2016, new thermal generation – Chinese annual electric generation capacity additions capacity as a percent of total new capacity was have been around six times greater than additions by reduced from 63% to 36%. the United States for the past 5 years. Annual Capacity Additions (GW) Cumulative Capacity (GW) 160 142 Solar 2,000 1,777 Solar 1,652 140 121 125 125 Wind 1,521 130 Wind 111 15 1,379 77 120 1,500 1,258 43 92 96 11 Hydro 1,147 28 Hydro 11 34 1,063 100 81 84 53 966 17 Other 874 Other 80 1,000 Nuclear Nuclear 60 40 Gas 500 Gas 20 Coal Coal 0 Coal and Gas 0 Coal and Gas 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 NREL | 32 Source: China Electric Council, accessed (2017, 2018). Japanese Market Update

• BNEF estimates that approximately 7.5 GW of PV was installed in • Starting in July 2016, projects must secure grid connection Japan in 2017, bringing cumulative deployment to 49 GW. approval within 9 months of their FiT approval. Japan has thus far revoked FiT allocations from 15 GW of mostly PV • While Japan’s PV industry had focused in the residential sector projects. before the FiT, it is relying more heavily on larger projects. • As Japanese households come off their FiT, there is new • Japan held its first solar auction in 2017; however, only 141 MW of interest in finding ways to optimize solar use. A Japan utility a possible 500 MW were successful. Japan is hoping with less strict and university introduced a trial “virtual power plant,” which rules, two more auctions for up to 250 MW of PV projects larger shifts heat pump use from night to the middle of the day if than 2 MW, will be successful in 2018. excess PV production is predicted. Japan currently has more Annual Japanese PV Deployment (GW-DC) than 5 million heat pumps. 11.2 12 – Japan installed 149 MWh of energy storage in 2017, 9.7 1MW+ 10 bringing its total to approximately 1.2 GWh (along with 8.0 7.5 10kW-1MW 8 6.6 record EV sales). 500kW+ 6 – Curtailment occurred 42 times in 2017 (compared to 17 10-500kW 4 in 2016) however, all were on remote islands in periods 0-10kW 2 of low demand. Total 0 • In 2017, imported coal reached an all-time high and LNG 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E imports increased as nuclear starts were delayed. NREL | 33 Source: BNEF, “1H 2018 Japan Market Outlook.” March 2018. Indian Market Update

• BNEF estimates that approximately 10 GW of PV was installed in India in • The Indian government has not yet given clarity to solar 2017, bringing cumulative deployment to 21 GW. project developers on the final goods and service tax rates applicable to various solar components, causing uncertainty • An increase in module prices and the ambiguity over tax rates delayed to project economics. installation of several projects in H2 2017. • As solar auctions have become fewer and more competitive, • India aims to bring 80 GW of PV (and 28 GW of wind) to auctions in 2018 Indian IPPs are pursuing ways of raising cheaper capital and 2019 as they try reach their 175 GW target of renewables by March through mergers and acquisitions, IPOs, or through selling 2022. existing portfolios of operating projects. Indian firms raised Annual PV Installations (GW) $712 million in new equity investments and another $3.8 12 billion through green bonds in 2017. Distributed 10 1 • Four Indian States have finalized regulations that penalize Utility-scale

Thousands 8 renewable energy power producers for being unable to forecast electricity generation within 15%. 6 9 4

0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 NREL | 34 Source: BNEF, “1H 2018 India Market Outlook.” January 2018. BNEF, “Capacity & Generation” data set. Accessed April 23, 2018. Indian PV Manufacturing Update

• In July 2017, India initiated an anti-dumping investigation regarding modules manufactured in China, Malaysia, and Taiwan. In January 2018, a preliminary recommendation of a 70% safeguard duty was announced, which developers felt would Price of Modules Imported to India ($/W) severely impact the industry. In March 2018, Indian 0.80 manufacturers announced they were withdrawing their petition 0.70 so that they could refile with more contemporary data, causing Range of prices India to terminate their investigation. Indian manufacturers plan 0.60 0.53 0.53 0.49 on filing a new petition this year. 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.40 – Electricity contracts auctioned in H2 2017 ranged between 0.35 0.40 0.34 $38/MWh and $64/MWh—up to 68% higher than some bids Average module 0.30 in H1 2017. price 0.32 0.20 • Due to fears of Indian module quality, the government issued

orders to establish quality control standards for solar equipment.

Jul-16 Jul-17

Jan-16 Jan-17

Jun-16 Jun-17

Oct-16 Oct-17

Apr-16 Apr-17

Feb-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Sep-17

Dec-16

Aug-16 Aug-17

Nov-16

Mar-16 Mar-17 May-17 May-16 The order bans the manufacturing or sale of equipment that has not achieved these standards. The standards took effect April 1, 2018.

NREL | 35 Source: BNEF, “1H 2018 India Market Outlook.” January 2018. Global CSP Cost and Performance

CSP installed costs, capacity factor, and LCOE, 2010-2017 • IRENA reported 2017 global-weighted average installed costs and LCOE for CSP fell 27% and 33% from 2010 to 2017, respectively.

NREL | 36 Sources: IRENA, “Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017.” Global CSP LCOE

• Despite a global average LCOE of $0.22/kWh in 2017, IRENA reports that recent auctions will put CSP pricing between $0.06/kWh and $0.10/kWh by 2022.

NREL | 37 Sources: IRENA, “Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017.” Solar Generation as a Percentage of Total Generation, 2014-2017 • The 10 states with the highest percentage of solar penetration generated at least 18% 3.5% of their energy from solar in 2017, 16% CA with California leading the way at 15.6%. 14% NV – In 2014, California led the United VT States with 6.8% of total generation 12% HI coming from solar. MA 10% – Utah’s percentage of electricity UT 8% AZ generation coming from solar grew from 0.2% in 2015 to 6.1% in 2017. 6% NC NM Generation 4% • In 2017, the United States as a whole NJ produced approximately 1.9% of its 2% U.S. electricity using solar technologies. 0% – This represents an approximate 2X 2014 2015 2016 2017 Solar Generation Solar as Percentage a ofTotal Net growth from 2014 (0.7%).

Note: EIA monthly data for 2017 are not final. Additionally, smaller utilities report information to EIA on a yearly basis, and therefore, a certain amount of solar data has not yet been reported. “Net Generation” includes DPV generation. Net generation does not take into account imports and exports to and from each state and therefore the percentage of solar consumed in each state may vary from its percentage of net generation. NREL | 38 Sources: EIA, “Electric Power Monthly,” forms EIA-023, EIA-826, and EIA-861 (February 2018). For Operating Day: Sunday, March 04, 2018

The Renewables Watch provides important information about actual renewable production within the ISO grid as California moves toward a 33 percent renewable generation portfolio. The information provided is as accurate as can be delivered in a daily format. It is unverif ied raw data and is not intended to be used as the basis for operational or financial decisions. Renewables Production

24-Hour Renewables Production Hourly Average Breakdown of Renewable M Resources Peak Renewable a Peak Production Daily Production 16,000 Production Resources x • California’s(MW) (MWh) all-renewable electricity hit 83% Time In California, Sometimes Non-Hydro . 14,000 14:41 554 4,402 Solar Thermal Solar Thermal from 1 p.m.-2 p.m.12, 000on April 8, 2018 (54% for 12:57 8,889 76,818 Solar 10,000

day). s

Renewable Electricity is > 50% 0:10 t 3,339 42,237

Wind a

w 8,000 Solar PV

18:35 g Small Hydro 322 4,819 e For Operating Day: Sunday, March 04, 2018 – ~9 GW (47%) M came6,000 from solar electricity. Biogas 1:20 244 5,761 4,000 The Renewables Watch provides important information about actual renewable production• witSimilarhin the IS Oto gr idGermany, as California much moves toofwa therd a 3balancing3 percent is Bdoneiomass using20:16 313– ~13 GW7,322 (68%) came from non-hydro Wind 2:58 1,000 23,921 2,000 renewable generation portfolio. The information provided is as accurate as can be delivered in a daily format. It is unverif ied raw data and is not Geothermal Small Hydro imports. BBioiomgass Total renewable electricity. Geothermal intended to be used as the basis for operational or financial decisions. 165,280 0 Renewables 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 – Total 24-Hour System Demand (MWh): – 19-20514,622 GW of total demand. Time of Day Renewables Production 6 GWh (~1% of total) were curtailed, and 2 GWh were This graph shows the production of various types of renewable This table gives numeric values related to the production from the various types of generation across the day. exported on April 8, 2018. renewable resources for the reporting day. All values are hourly average unless otherwise stated. Peak Production is an average over one minute. The total System Peak Demand (MW) renewable production in megawatt-hours is compared to the total energy demand *one minute average 26,186 for the ISO system for the day. 24-Hour Renewables Production Hourly Average Breakdown of Renewable Time: 19:02 M Resources Peak Renewable a Peak Production Daily Production 16,000 Production Hourly Average Breakdown of Total Production By Resource Type Resources x (MW) (MWh) 30,000 Time . 14,000 14:41 Solar Thermal 25,000 Solar Thermal 554 4,402 12,000

Solar 12:57 8,889 76,818 20,000 10,000 Hydro

s Imports

0:10 t 3,339 42,237 t

Wind a 15,000 a Thermal

w 8,000

Solar PV a

a Nuclear

e 18:35 g

M Small Hydro 322 4,819 e M 6,000 10,000 Biogas 1:20 244 5,761 Renewables 4,000 5,000 Biomass 20:16 313 7,322 Wind 2,000 0 2:58 1,000 23,921 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Geothermal SmBailol gHaysdro Biomass Time of Day Total Geothermal 165,280 0 Renewables 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 This graph depicts the production of various generating resources across the day.

Total 24-Hour System Demand (MWh): 514,622 Time of Day Previous Renewables Watch reports and data are available at http://www.caiso.com/green/renewableswatch.html This graph shows the production of various types of renewable NREL | 39 Source: Sarah Kurtz. http://www.caiso.com/market/Pages/ReportsBulletins/DailyRenewablesWatch.aspxgeneration across the day. This table gives numeric values related to the production from the various types of renewable resources for the reporting day. All values are hourly average unless otherwise stated. Peak Production is This table gives numeric values related to the production from the various types of an average over one minute. The total renewable production in megawatt-hours is compared to the total energy demand for the ISO system for the day. Solar PV and Solar thermal generators that are directly connected to the power grid. “Solar PV” is defined as solar generating units that utilize solar panels containing a photovoltaic material. “Solar Thermal” is defined as solar generating units that renewable resources for the reporting day. All values are hourly average unless convert sunlight into heat and utilize fossil fuel or storage for production which may occur after sunset. otherwise stated. Peak Production is an average over one minute. The total Page 1 of 2 System Peak Demand (MW) renewable production in megawatt-hours is compared to the total energy demand *one minute average 26,186 for the ISO system for the day. Time: 19:02

Hourly Average Breakdown of Total Production By Resource Type 30,000

25,000

20,000 Hydro Imports

t t 15,000 a Thermal

w a Nuclear

M 10,000

Renewables 5,000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Time of Day

This graph depicts the production of various generating resources across the day.

Previous Renewables Watch reports and data are available at http://www.caiso.com/green/renewableswatch.html

This table gives numeric values related to the production from the various types of renewable resources for the reporting day. All values are hourly average unless otherwise stated. Peak Production is an average over one minute. The total renewable production in megawatt-hours is compared to the total energy demand for the ISO system for the day. Solar PV and Solar thermal generators that are directly connected to the power grid. “Solar PV” is defined as solar generating units that utilize solar panels containing a photovoltaic material. “Solar Thermal” is defined as solar generating units that convert sunlight into heat and utilize fossil fuel or storage for production which may occur after sunset. Page 1 of 2 Curtailed Electricity in California in 2018

• As of April 8, 2018, the curtailed electricity year-to-date in California was 132,728 MWh.

• If that electricity is valued at $0.10/kWh, curtailment results in ~$13MM in lost revenue.

NREL | 40 Source: Sarah Kurtz. http://www.caiso.com/market/Pages/ReportsBulletins/DailyRenewablesWatch.aspx Watching the Duck Grow Fat

NREL | 41 Source: Sarah Kurtz. http://www.caiso.com/market/Pages/ReportsBulletins/DailyRenewablesWatch.aspx U.S. Storage Capacity Additions by • EIA reports that at the end of 2017, the United States had 708 MW of utility-scale electric Source generation battery storage, up 145 MW from 2016, and 101 MW of distributed storage, up 85 MW from 2016. • Pumped hydro continues to be the largest source of energy storage • Battery storage still represents a small resource in the United States by an order of magnitude; however, a when compared to the 130 GW of PV and wind significant number of batteries have been added to the grid over installed in the United States at the end of 2017. the past few years due to the rise in renewable capacity and the • New Jersey passed a bill in April 2018 that sets reduction in battery costs. storage targets of 600 MW in 2021 and 2 GW in 2030.

900 25 U.S. Electric Generation Battery Storage Additions (MW) 800 Distributed (left-axis) 250 700 Utility-scale (left-axis) 20 600 Utility-scale (right-axis) 15 200 Distributed 500 Utility-scale 400 10 150

(MW) 300 storage (GW) 200 5 100 100

0 0 50

U.S. U.S. generating capacity, pumped U.S. generating capacity, storage storage capacity, generating U.S.

0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

NREL | 42 Source: Utility-scale data: EIA “Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory” (December 2017); distributed data: EIA, form 861M. System Pricing From Select States Based on preliminary data for H1 2018, from H1 2017 to H1 2018, the median reported PV system $6 price in the four states analyzed:

$5 DC) • - Fell 10% to $3.83/W, for systems

$4 2.5 kW–10 kW

$3 • Fell 11% to $3.34/W, for systems 10 kW–100 kW System System Price ($/W $2 • Increased 8% to $3.00/W, for $1 2.5 - 10 kW 10 - 100 kW 100 - 500 kW 500 kW - 5 MW systems 100 kW–500 kW $0 H2 '14 H1 '15 H2 '15 H1 '16 H2 '16 H1 '17 H2 '17 H1 '18 • Fell 2% to $2.25/W, for systems 500 kW–5 MW.

Preliminary H1 2018 MW: AZ (48), CA (47), MA (13), NY (72) Note: California pricing data before 2015 are collected from the California Solar Initiative database. CA NEM data have only been reported through November 2017. Sources: CA NEM database; MA SREC program; Arizona Public Services and Salt River Project; NY PV Incentive Program. All programs accessed 01/17/2018. NREL | 43 • Since Q3 2016, the decrease in inverter Inverter Pricing price has slowed. – In 2017, string and central inverters have been flat.

$0.30 Residential (string) $0.25 Commercial (string)

AC) Utility (central) - $0.20

$0.15

$0.10 FactoryGate Price ($/W $0.05

$0.00 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 '13 '13 '14 '14 '14 '14 '15 '15 '15 '15 '16 '16 '16 '16 '17 '17 '17 '17

Source. GTM Research / SEIA NREL | 44 Enphase Microinverters and SolarEdge DC-Optimized Inverter Systems

• In 2017, module-level power electronics (MLPE) price and costs were at historical lows $0.70 and shipments were at historical highs— $0.60 companies are expanding into new markets, $0.50 growing shipments but also growing

$0.40 competition.

AC $0.40 - – From Q4 2016 to Q4 2017, Enphase and

$/W $0.30 $0.30 SolarEdge MLPE prices fell 15% and 11%, $0.20 Enphase (Rev./W) $0.25 respectively. Enphase (Cost/W) $0.15 $0.10 SolarEdge (Rev./W) – Enphase and SolarEdge MLPE costs also SolarEdge (Cost/MW) $0.00 decreased by 21% and 13%, respectively, Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 over the same period. '13 '13 '14 '14 '14 '14 '15 '15 '15 '15 '16 '16 '16 '16 '17 '17 '17 '17 – These companies have cut operating costs and are transitioning to more advanced technologies to better compete in this highly competitive marketplace.

Note: Starting in Q2 2017 Enphase switched reporting shipments from W-AC to W-DC; we adjust these values using an ILR of 1.1, NREL | 45 Sources: Corporate filings. Enphase Microinverters and • Enphase and SolarEdge shipped over 3 SolarEdge DC-Optimized Inverter Systems GW-AC of MLPE combined in 2017. – Since 2015, Enphase shipments have been relatively flat while SolarEdge shipments have grown 40% per year. 3.5 3.5% – 3.0 3.0% In Q4 2017, SolarEdge’s MPLE product was approximately $0.15/W cheaper

2.5 2.5% AC) - than Enphase’s product. 2.0 2.0% • Enphase and SolarEdge represented 1.5 1.5% approximately 3.3% of all inverter

Shipments (GW 1.0 1.0%

%of Shipments Global shipments in 2017. 0.5 0.5% – GTM Research reports that these 0.0 0.0% companies represented approximately 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 66% of U.S. residential PV system Enphase SolarEdge % of global inverter shipments inverters installed in 2017—up from 57% in 2016.

NREL | 46 Sources: Corporate filings; GTM Research “U.S. PV Leaderboard Q1 2018”; PV Magazine (April 6, 2018). Executive Summary

• The United States installed 10.6 GW-DC of PV in 2017, 3.9 • EIA reports that 32% of all new U.S. electricity generating GW-DC in Q4—cumulative capacity reached 51.6 GW. capacity came from solar installations in 2017, though • After tariffs were placed on imported PV cells and modules, solar only represented 3.9% of net summer capacity and several countries have taken steps to dispute the 1.9% of annual generation in 2017. proclamation and companies are seeking exemptions. • From H2 2016 to H2 2017, EnergySage reported a 7% • Over 2 GW of new manufacturing capacity has been reduction in the average gross costs of a residential system announced in the first 4 months of 2018, citing tariffs and to $3.13/W. corporate tax reductions. • In Q4 2017, total costs for Vivint- and Sunrun-built systems • In 2017, the U.S. produced approximately 260 MW of PV were between $2.65/W and $3.00/W. cells and 970 MW of PV modules—a decrease of 66% and • In a select data set of utility-scale PV systems, the median 43%, respectively, year over year. system price in 2017 was $2.16/W-AC ($1.66/W-DC). • Global PV installations reached 415 GW-DC, an annual • Global module ASP continues to decline to a low of 30 increase of 98 GW-DC from 2016. cents/W, while many manufacturers report module costs • At the end of 2017, global CSP installations reached 5.6 at similar values. GW, an increase of 400 MW. • U.S. module pricing traded at a premium in late 2017 due to tariff concerns. NREL | 47 A list of acronyms is available at the end of the presentation. U.S. Installation Breakdown

• The top five states represented 100% approximately 53% of the U.S. PV market 90% in 2017—the lowest level in at least 12 years.

) 80% DC 70% – Part of that reason is that in 2017, the

60% California market contracted, y/y, for Remainder the first time in over 12 years. 50% Next four states 40% California – States outside of the top five 30% contracted 11% from 2016 to 2017; Annual Installed PV (GW however, installed capacity was still 20% 124% higher than 2015 values. 10%

0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

NREL | 48 Sources: GTM Research/SEIA: U.S. Solar Market Insight Q4 2017. U.S. Residential PV Penetration • Since 2005, when the investment tax credit was passed by congress, the residential PV market has grown by 3.0% 1,800,000 approximately 44% per year, or about Residential PV systems (right axis) 81X. 2.5% U.S. households (left axis) 1,500,000 Single-family detached houses (left axis) • U.S. residential PV has had customer 2.0% 1,200,000 acquisition challenges amidst widespread NEM reform, loss of state 1.5% 900,000 incentives, and potential saturation of early adopters.

1.0% 600,000 %of households withPV Cum.of # Res. PV Systems • Penetration varies by location. Hawaii,

0.5% 300,000 California, and Arizona have residential systems on an estimated 31%, 11%, 0.0% 0 and 9% of households living in single- family detached structures.

Sources: Res. PV Installations: 2000-2009, IREC 2010 Solar Market Trends Report; 2010-2017, SEIA/GTM Solar Market Insight 2017 Year-in-Review; U.S. Households U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Housing Survey; state percentages based on 2000 NREL | 49 survey. Manufacturers’ Shipments • In 2017, the tracked companies shipped 31 GW, an increase of 24% over 2016. Publically Traded Cell/Module Manufacturers • Q2 shipments were greater than Q4 shipments due to the reduction in Chinese FiT rates in H2. 10 2017. Jinko Solar 35 9 Jinko Solar SunPower 8 30 SunPower 7 Canadian Solar 2.5 25 Canadian Solar 9.8 6 First Solar 0.5 First Solar 1.4 5 20 Yingli 1.8 4 Yingli 6.9 JA Solar 0.5 15 3 JA Solar 2.3

GW Shipped Per Company Per Shipped GW 0.8 2 10 3.0 1 2.2 5 7.6 0

Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17

Q2 '12 Q2 Q1 Q1 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Q1 '17

Q4 '15 Q4 Q1 Q1 '15 Q2 Q2 '14 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Notes: First Solar reports data on production, not shipments. Sources: Company figures based on Q4 2017 (and previous) SEC filings by the respective companies. NREL | 50 • First Solar continues to lead in R&D spending, although SunPower is a close second. Both companies cut R&D Research and Development funding significantly in 2017.

• In past years, Canadian Solar and Jinko Solar have had • R&D among the tracked companies fell significantly to $313 million relatively small R&D budgets but increased R&D spending in 2017 from $380 million in 2016, a fall of 18% y/y. this year by 65% and 73%, respectively.

R&D Expenditures R&D as a Portion of Revenue $200 6% 5% $150 4% $100 3% 2% $50

Annual R&D R&D Annual 1% $0 0% Expenditures (Millions) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

First Solar JA Solar Yingli First Solar JA Solar Yingli Trina Solar Canadian Solar Hanwha Q Cells Trina Solar Canadian Solar Hanwha Q Cells Jinko Solar SunPower Jinko Solar SunPower

Sources: Company figures based on Q4 2017 (and previous) SEC filings by the respective companies. NREL | 51 PV Experience Curve

100 • This experience curve displays the

Historic ASP relationship, in logarithmic form, between the average selling price of a PV module and the cumulative global 10 shipments of PV modules. As shown, for every doubling of cumulative PV shipments, there is on average a corresponding ~22% reduction in PV 1

Module ASP ModuleASP (2016$/W) module price. • Since 2012, module ASP has been below the historical experience curve.

0.1 0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Cumulative Global Shipments (MW)

Source: 1976-2017: Paula Mints. "Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity, Shipments, Price & Revenues 2017/2018." SPV Market Research. Report NREL | 52 SPV-Supply6. April 2018. U.S.U. SInstallation. PV Installatio nBreakdowns by Region (MW-DC) 2017

Other In 2017, new PV installations have 2% California had a fair geographic mix across the Northwest 25% United States, with 5 GW-DC 4% installed east of the Mississippi. Midwest 7% Texas Southeast 6% 33% Southwest 10% Northeast 13%

NREL | 53 Sources: GTM Research/SEIA: U.S. Solar Market Insight 2017 Year-in-Review.