An Unhealthy Cocktail Regarding the Global PV Industry, There Is a New Sense of Departure – Despite the Uncertainties in the Most Important European Markets
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PHOTOVOLTAICS CELL AND MODULE MANUFACTURERS The stocks of the majority of the manufacturers in Europe are piling up. Photos (5): Bosch An unhealthy cocktail Regarding the global PV industry, there is a new sense of departure – despite the uncertainties in the most important European markets. Under the new world market conditions, the solar landscape is now changing. raditionally, the activities of the solar sector Tariffs drop by up to 34 % used to be strongest in the European markets Tand, in particular, in Germany. “Over the past Based on an assessment of the European market, decade, Europe has played a dominant role in creat- Solarbuzz comes to the result that the feed-in tariffs ing the demand growth that fuelled global manufac- for residential solar systems are set to fall by an aver- turing capacity expansion for solar products”, says age of 17 % in the course of the next 18 months, with Alan Turner, Vice President of European market re- commercial roof-mounted systems of 100 kW or more search for Solarbuzz. “This was underpinned by ag- falling by about 23 % and large ground-mounted PV gressive, uncapped feed-in-tariff programmes, which even by 34 % in the same period. This, of course, are now being scaled back to reduce costs.” Policy would lead to tremendous pressure for the manufac- adjustments are becoming more frequent, says turers in the downstream segment to cut costs and the Turner, creating uncertainty for investors in PV result that many resellers will pile up stocks of over- systems. The development has led to acute cost priced solar cells and modules in their warehouses. pressure, which is multiplied by imports of low-cost “These distributors face a gigantic challenge with low- products from Asia. er sales and cash-flow problems”, says Turner. “There 100 Sun & Wind Energy 10/2011 PHOTOVOLTAICS CELL AND MODULE MANUFACTURERS is now a need for new distribution channels and geo- Flexible on the landscape graphical diversification of the production sites.” Higher efficiencies and module quality will also Particularly, the manufacturers of solar panels show become more important. Henning Wicht, Principal a tendency to establish their production sites in re- Analyst Photovoltaics for the market researcher IHS gions where their products are needed. It shouldn’t iSuppli, expects the landscape to change drastically surprise that companies in the downstream segment in the production industry. “Europe is continuing its are now following in their footsteps and raising their leadership role on the world market. But we are ex- capacities in Asia and the United States. But also lo- pecting that the market share of 80 % achieved in the cal players are reacting accordingly. One example is last year will drop to 68.6 % in the current year. By the China-based solar cell and module manufacturer 2015, the United States will have become the world’s China Sunergy. Sunergy expects to expand its solar largest single PV market and take the place of cell production capacity up to 1 GW with a new facili- Germany, which will have to content itself with coming ty in Yangzhou City, which is scheduled to be opera- in second after years at the top.” This opinion is tional by the first term of the year 2012. The invest- shared by Solarbuzz President Craig Stevens. He be- ment cost for the fixed assets of the project is esti- lieves that the market shares of the countries in the mated to total US$ 280 million. “Using the current Asian-Pacific region and the United States will grow equipment and R&D capability, we are confident to rapidly in the next five years. “The United States reach large-scale cell production efficiency higher arrived at a market share of 5 % in the last year. This than 19 %; and within the next two years, we are fur- share will grow to 9 % by the end of 2011 and up to ther developing new techniques with the same equip- 14 % in 2015.” According to Stevens, the develop- ment to reach 20 %. This level of efficiency, produced ment will be even more dramatic for the five leading at this scale, will drive down costs significantly for PV producers of the Asian Pacific region – and in par- our customers”, says Jianhua Zhao, Chief Technology Bosch Solar Energy is ticular for China and Japan. “In 2010, the region ar- Officer for China Sunergy. Another company that puts planning to establish a rived at 11 % market penetration. That share will in- trusts into the potential of the Chinese market is the new competence centre crease to 16 % by the end of 2011 and reach the 26 % solar cell specialist JA Solar. The introduction of a new in Arnstadt, Germany. mark by 2015.” feed-in incentive through China’s government has strengthened this confidence. “JA Solar has an- nounced that it is in the process of ramping up its solar cell production capacities to more than 3 GW”, says Stefan de Haan at IHS iSuppli. The Canada-based module specialist QSolar also seems to expect significant demand growth in Asia. Only recently, QSolar redoubled its production capac- ities from 20 up to 40 MW in its Shanghai plant. “This step has been a reaction to the rising amount of or- ders”, says Andreas Tapakoudes, QSolar’s president and CEO. Another player that has recognized the up- swing in Asia is the Germany-based company Bosch, 102 Sun & Wind Energy 10/2011 PHOTOVOLTAICS CELL AND MODULE MANUFACTURERS 104 Sun & Wind Energy 10/2011 Sun & Wind Energy 10/2011 105 PHOTOVOLTAICS CELL AND MODULE MANUFACTURERS 106 Sun & Wind Energy 10/2011 Find out more at: www.solarwatt.de 3 Extremely resilient quality modules 3 Production as precise as in the automobile industry 3 Strict and comprehensive quality tests 3 High-quality materials and certified suppliers WHY SOLARWATT? 3 EUROPE‘S MOST MODERN MODULE PRODUCTION 3 PRODUCED ENTIRELY IN GERMANY SOL_AZ_SW&E_RZ_110908.indd 1 08.09.11 15:30 PHOTOVOLTAICS CELL AND MODULE MANUFACTURERS production capacity in Jaipur by 12 MW. The company recently ordered a semi-automated production line from Spire Cooperation. “We have frequently collab- orated with REIL in the past. The new factory will help the company to gain a firmer foothold on the fast- growing market in India”, says Roger Little, CEO of Spire. REIL’s decision to expand its capacities was made only a few days after the government of India had announced to further enhance its incentive for PV projects. But also the production of solar cells is fol- lowing a rapid expansion course in India. One of the players that are about to make their debut in the solar sector is the India-based global industrial conglomer- ate group Yash Birla, which plans to establish a new solar cell and wafer production facility in Maharash- tra, Central India. The plants are expected to have an- nual capacities of 60 MW and 125 MW, respectively. The decision to invest US$ 1.2 billion was based on the National Solar Mission, an initiative of the gov- ernment of India that aims at driving the installation of PV systems with a total capacity of 20 GW in India by the year 2022. Stronger integration Holger von Hebel, the CEO which is the world’s biggest independent automotive of Bosch Solar Energy supplier, and plans to expand its global solar busi- MEMC Group wants to take advantage of the boom in division, about the ness in Malaysia – with an investment in the range of Asia to close gaps on the different stages of its verti- new Bosch competence € 520 million. Bosch will build an innovative facility cal integration. In a joint venture with Jusung centre: “The planned fa- for solar products in the region. “It will cover the en- Engineering, MEMC plans to invest US$ 32 million cility will cover the entire tire value-added chain, from silicon crystals – known into a factory for monocrystalline solar cells, which is value-added chain, from as ingots – and solar cells to the modules, which can expected to be operational by the beginning of the silicon crystals – known be installed on roofs or in solar power plants,” says next year with an annual capacity of 100 MW. Where as ingots – and solar cells Holger von Hebel, CEO of Bosch Solar Energy AG. The exactly the new factory will be located is still undecid- to the modules, which factory is scheduled for completion by 2014 and will ed. South Korea and Singapore are now both under can be installed on roofs have an annual output of 150 MW. The manufacturing discussion, says Ken Hannah, the President of MEMC or in solar power plants.” site in Batu Kawan will mainly serve the solar energy Solar Materials. But also Canadian Solar is planning markets in south-east Asia, which are expected to see to raise its solar cell capacities in Asia. In a joint ven- average annual growth of 30 % in the upcoming ture with the Suzhou New District Economic Develop- years, according to von Hebel. ment Group & Suzhou Science and Technology City Development Co., the company has plans to establish Closing gaps a new solar cell production facility with an annual ca- pacity of 600 MW in Suzhou, China. The news was re- One of the attractive growth markets for PV products leased to the press by Canadian Solar only a few days in this part of the world is India. The news that mas- after the construction of a new 600 MW wafer produc- sive capacity building in PV can be expected has tion project in a joint venture with GCL-Poly was an- spread quickly in the energy-thirsty region.