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China Solar Sector Research Analysts INITIATION Gary Zhou, CFA 852 2101 6648 [email protected] the Two New Trends

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China Solar Sector Research Analysts INITIATION Gary Zhou, CFA 852 2101 6648 Gary.Zhou@Credit-Suisse.Com the Two New Trends 30 June 2017 Asia Pacific/China Equity Research Utilities China Solar Sector Research Analysts INITIATION Gary Zhou, CFA 852 2101 6648 [email protected] The two new trends Dave Dai, CFA 852 2101 7358 [email protected] Figure 1: Expanding market share of distributed solar and rising Gloria Yan demand for mono-Si solar components 852 2101 7369 80% 71% 74% [email protected] 60% 50% 50% Distributed solar as % of 40% 45% 32% 40% 25% 30% China's annual solar 18% installations 20% 9% 12% 0% Market share of mono-Si 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Source: NDRC, Credit Suisse estimates ■ Mono-Si gaining share on the upstream. Despite global solar market likely growing by single digits in the next few years, we expect demand for Mono-Silicon (mono-Si) solar components to more than double during 2016-20, driven by market share expansion (from 25% to 50%) due to its superior cost efficiency over competing multi-silicon (multi-Si) technology. Such a trend should benefit mono-Si wafer manufacturers (led by LONGi) with strong volume and earnings growth, while multi-Si rivals (such as GCL Poly) may suffer from shrinking demand. ■ Rising distributed solar in China. For China's solar operator market, another major change we expect is the shift from ground-mounted solar farms to distributed solar (largely rooftops). Such a trend is warranted by a lower land requirement, limited power curtailment and lucrative returns for distributed solar (an equity IRR of >15% vs 10% for solar farms). We believe that the forecasted 55% capacity CAGR (60GW target by 2020) during 2016-20 for distributed solar should help to drive up demand for mono-Si products (extra 100-200 bp IRR gains). ■ Headwinds for ground-mounted projects. In comparison, the traditional ground-mounted solar market may slow to only a 12% capacity CAGR during 2016-20. Key headwinds include further on-grid tariff cuts (we expect another 15-20% cut in 2H17), expanding competitive tenders (>80% in 2017) and rising interest rates. With >90% of existing project exposure in ground-mounted solar, we expect most listed operators (except Linyang) to face challenges in defending profitability. ■ Stock calls. We initiate coverage on the two upstream solar wafer producers: LONGi (OUTPERFORM, TP: Rmb23.0 with 34% upside, and the best positioned in the expanding mono-Si market) with a 25% FY17- 19E EPS CAGR and GCL Poly (NEUTRAL, mainly in multi-Si market). For operators, we downgrade XYS to NEUTRAL with headwinds for ground- mounted farms and upgrade Linyang to NEUTRAL given exposure to distributed solar. Key risks: Industry competition and policy changes. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 30 June 2017 Focus charts and table Figure 2: Mono-Si has both cost and efficiency Figure 3: Mono-Si is gaining market share at the advantages expense of traditional multi-Si (Rmb/W) 100% 20.0% 19.7% 2.3 18% 25% 2.2 30% 19.5% 80% 40% 45% 2.2 50% 19.0% 60% 18.5% 18.2% 2.1 Mono-Si 2.0 40% 82% 18.0% 75% 70% Multi-Si 2.0 60% 55% 50% 17.5% 20% 17.0% 1.9 Mono-Si Multi-Si 0% Cell efficiency Module production cost (Rmb/W) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Note: Pure production cost excluding margins at wafer, cell and module production Source: PV tech, China PV Industry Association, ITRPV, Credit Suisse estimates processes. Source: Company, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 4: Higher solar farm IRR by using mono-Si Figure 5: Mono-Si price premium supported by products due to lower BOS cost (land, cables, etc) higher efficiency (IRR) BOS cost 200bp (Rmb/W) 18% 17% 20.0 15% 16% 15.0 14% 100bp 10.0 12% 11% 10% 10% 5.0 3.0 2.7 3.5 3.2 8% 0.0 Ground-mounted Ground-mounted Distributed (multi- Distributed (multi-Si) (mono-Si) Si) (mono-Si) Note: BOS stands for Balance of System (the system cost of a solar farm, including land, Source: WIND cables, etc. and accounting for around half of total initial investment) Source: Credit Suisse estimates Figure 6: LONGi is a key beneficiary of rising Figure 7: Decent profitability for mono-Si wafer (on demand for mono-Si solar components current spot price) (GW) Wafer Module 60 60% (Rmb/W) Poly Multi Mono Multi Mono 40 40% Cost 0.38 0.85 0.78 2.52 2.58 ASP 0.48 1.02 1.18 2.70 3.00 20 20% Gross margin 21% 17% 34% 7% 14% 0 0% LONGi's ex posure* - - 90% - 10% 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E LONGi' output Global demand for mono-Si LONGi's market share GCL's ex posure* 60% 40% - - - Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Note: * Measured by FY18E gross profit exposure. Source: Bloomberg, WIND, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 8: Rating, target price and EPS change summary Company Ticker Rating Target price (FC) EPS change (%) New EPS (LC) P/E (x) New Old New Old FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E LONGi 601012.SS O n.a. 23.00 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.01 1.32 1.59 16.9 13.0 10.7 GCL 3800.HK N n.a. 0.80 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.10 0.10 0.10 7.0 7.2 7.1 XYS 0968.HK N O 2.40 3.87 -14% -21% -31% 0.32 0.33 0.31 6.9 6.8 7.1 GCLNE 0451.HK N N 0.40 0.50 0% -28% -22% 0.04 0.04 0.04 7.8 8.9 7.9 Linyang 601222.SS N U 7.50 6.80 -9% 8% 13% 0.42 0.48 0.48 17.5 15.4 15.1 CNE 0182.HK O O 0.47 0.56 -23% -26% -38% 0.06 0.08 0.08 4.6 3.8 3.4 Note: Priced as of 28 June 2017. Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates China Solar Sector 2 30 June 2017 The two new trends Prefer mono-Si over We initiate coverage on the China solar wafer manufacturing sector. Given higher cell multi-Si efficiency and reduced costs, mono-silicon (mono-Si) outperforms multi-silicon (multi-Si) on project returns—a key reason why it has gained favour in recent years. We forecast mono-Si's global market share to double from 25% in 2016 to 50% by 2020, and demand- supply balance should stay intact in the next two years. Turning cautious on On solar farm operators, we are turning more cautious given potential declines in annual Chinese solar farm ground-mounted project quotas, continuing tariff cut risks (the next round could take place operators in 2H17 with a likely ~15-20% cut), and expanding competitive project bidding (>80% in 2017). Rising interest rates are an additional risk. Mono-Si gaining share on the upstream Mono-Si has superior With ~10% higher efficiency, we believe that mono-Si modules are justified in having a cost efficiency ~10% price premium (~Rmb0.3/W) to multi-Si, due to the lower Balance of System (BOS) cost (such as land, cables, etc.) required. After technology upgrades and capacity expansion, we estimate the pure production cost of mono-Si modules (for market leaders such as LONGi) is 10% lower than multi-Si, leaving mono-Si makers flexibility in balancing market share expansion and margin protection. Rising distributed solar in China Distributed solar is a Despite a likely growth slowdown for China’s solar power sector, we believe that growing opportunity distributed solar, backed by strong policy support, could take off with a likely 55% CAGR in China for 2016-20 (60GW target by 2020). The key advantages of distributed solar include flexible locations (largely rooftops), limited curtailment issues and generous subsidies. During the last few rounds of solar tariff cuts, distributed tariffs stayed intact. We calculate an equity IRR of >15% for distributed solar, higher than ~10% for ground-mounted solar farms. Headwinds for ground-mounted projects Ground-mounted Generally, we expect the demand shift from ground-mounted solar to distributed solar to projects are less be negative for traditional solar farm operators under our coverage (such as Xinyi Solar preferred in China and GCL New Energy), given that >90% of their current capacity exposure is in ground- mounted solar. As a result, we cut our annual capacity additions for those companies by 20-40%. At the same time, the expansion of project bidding (>80% in 2017) has been quicker than our previous expectation, likely to result in lower tariffs and thus lower returns (an equity IRR from 14-10%). Key upside risks could be further industry consolidation and listcos' quicker-than-expected expansion into distributed solar. Stock calls We initiate coverage on the two upstream solar wafer producers: LONGi (OUTPERFORM, TP: Rmb23.0 with 34% upside, and the best positioned in the expanding mono-Si market) with a 25% FY17-19E EPS CAGR and GCL Poly (NEUTRAL, mainly in multi-Si market). For operators, we downgrade XYS to a NEUTRAL with headwinds for ground-mounted farms and upgrade Linyang to a NEUTRAL given exposure to distributed solar.
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