2018 PV MODULE RELIABILITY SCORECARD Defining Quality
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ENERGY 2018 PV MODULE RELIABILITY SCORECARD Defining Quality. Guiding Industry. SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER ff Authors: Tara Doyle Tristan Erion-Lorico Ryan Desharnais Head of Business Development Head of PV Module Business Head of Engineering and Project Management [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Contributors: Ken Sauer, Senior PV Engineer, [email protected] Adam Gushansky, Project Manager, [email protected] Steve Jones, Business Line Director - Renewables Advisory North America, [email protected] Jackson Moore, Head of Solar Technology, [email protected] Raymond Hudson, Senior Principal Consultant, [email protected] CONTENTS INTRODUCTION __________________________________________________________________ 05 SOLAR TIMELINE ____________________________________________________________ 06 PV MODULE AGING MECHANISMS _________________________________________________ 08 PV MODULE RELIABILITY & TESTING ________________________________________________09 THE PV MODULE PRODUCT QUALIFICATION PROGRAM _________________________________10 THE RESULTS _____________________________________________________________________ 13 Thermal Cycling Overview & Results................................................................................................................. 14 Damp Heat Overview & Results......................................................................................................................... 16 Mechanical Load + Thermal Cycling + Humidity Freeze Overview & Results.............................................. 18 Potential Induced Degradation Overview & Results....................................................................................... 20 CASE STUDY: PID PERFORMANCE __________________________________________________ 22 CASE STUDY: PAN & IAM PERFORMANCE ___________________________________________23 INTERPRETING THE RESULTS _______________________________________________________ 24 FACTORY LOCATIONS _____________________________________________________________ 26 THE HISTORICAL SCORECARD _____________________________________________________ 27 DNV GL BEST PRACTICES __________________________________________________________28 CONCLUSION ____________________________________________________________________ 30 04 ENERGY 2018 PV Module Reliability Scorecard INTRODUCTION here has never been a more exciting time in the solar industry. Buyers are faced with T increased technological advances, which test our understanding of what makes a module “proven”, while energy pricing continues to fall, compressing project margins. Technologies that have been developed over recent years, including bifacial modules and PERC cells, are now available from many of the top module suppliers. India, China, Brazil, Mexico and Egypt are examples of some of the fastest growing PV markets that are themselves experiencing an emergence of new manufacturers. We no longer think about production in terms of megawatts per year, but in gigawatts. Excitement can be equally joined with uncertainty. In the case of the solar industry, risk is often associated with new technologies and rapid development. New technologies mean uncharted territory in terms of module performance and long term reliability. The speed and volume at which these developments are introduced result in new risks associated with poor quality module construction, increasingly complicated logistics and limited field history. In these exciting and sometimes challenging times, the industry moves forward by leaps and bounds. With 98 GW installed globally, up 29 percent from 2016, 2017 was another record year for new solar capacity. We expect 2018 to continue this record-setting growth, easily eclipsing the 100 GW milestone. At DNV GL’s Energy Labs, our experts have experienced the shift in the industry just as you have, and we remain one step ahead. We have tested everything from proven technologies to prototypes, with results ranging from reliable to risky, sometimes counter to conventional wisdom and expectations. DNV GL first published this Scorecard in 2014 to show you, the market, what we found and learned through our testing. We are proud to present our fourth annual PV Module Reliability Scorecard. Ditlev Engel CEO DNV GL - Energy 2018 PV Module Reliability Scorecard ENERGY 05 SOLAR TIMELINE 1982 1905 The first megawatt-scale Albert Einstein PV array goes on-line in explains the California, USA photoelectric 1958 The Vanguard I effect based space satellite on the photon uses a small theory of light (< 1 W) array 1964 to power its NASA launches radios the first Nimbus satellite, able to 1839 run entirely on 19 year old 470 W of solar Edmund Bacquerel of France discovers the creation of 1954 voltage when The modern certain solar cell is material is invented by 1977 exposed to 1963 Bell Labs, with Global PV 1999 light Japan installs 2004 ~6% efficiency the world's manufacturing Cumulative Annual global largest PV array, production worldwide capacity additions 242 W on a capacity installed exceed 1 GW for lighthouse exceeds photovoltaic the first time 500 kW capacity reaches 1 GW 1956 1975 1987 2004 Solar cell cost Solar cell cost Solar cell cost Germany per watt = per watt = per watt = introduces ~$300 ~$100 <$10 their Feed-in-Tariff program for solar at $457/MWh 06 ENERGY 2018 PV Module Reliability Scorecard SOLAR TIMELINE 2012 2015 2017 PVEL, now DNV GL, develops the module China becomes first World's first 1 GW array connects Product Qualification Program (PQP) to country to install to the grid in India support the downstream solar community. more than 15 GW of PV in a single year 2017 98 GW of PV installed in one 2012 2017 year, more than World's largest array connects to the Largest ever PV grid - 145 MW in Germany 2016 the net addition World's largest manufacturing of all coal, gas, array connects to capacity additions and nuclear the grid - 648 MW announced in a power plants in India single quarter at combined. 40 GW (Q4) 2012 2008 2014 Cumulative Cumulative World's largest worldwide worldwide array connects to 2016 installed installed PV the grid - 550 MW Cumulative PV PV capacity capacity exceeds in California, USA capacity exceeds 15 GW exceeds 300 GW 100 GW 2011 2012 2012 2012 2017 New Japan Solar cell cost New record-low New record-low 2017 record- introduces per watt < $1 PPA is signed PPA bid for $17.9/ Solar module low PPA is their for $59/MWh MWh submitted in cost per watt = signed for Feed-in-Tariff in USA Saudi Arabia $0.37 $200/MWh program for in Ghana solar at $534/ MWh Sources: BNEF, EPIA, GTM, IEA, IRENA 2018 PV Module Reliability Scorecard ENERGY 07 PV MODULE AGING MECHANISMS PV module aging and failure mechanisms have been The results from a Heliolytics study support this documented over a wide range of power plant trend. Heliolytics has inspected over 8 GW of locations and material sets. Field failures of PV operating systems using aerial infrared equipment can stem from component issues, design technology. Focusing on ground-mounted modules flaws, or failures in quality control during the with sub-module defects, they found that more than manufacturing process. 7% of sites have sub-module defect rates greater than 0.5%. Sub-module defects include failed The graphic below indicates leading PV module aging diodes, cell damage or poor soldering where at least and failure mechanisms occurring as infant, midlife and 1/3 of the module becomes inactive. wear-out failures. 1 3 Is long-term performance data available? The long tails in both histograms are indicative of The solar industry generally lacks comprehensive module underperformance caused by poor quality public datasets of PV equipment field performance. manufacturing, materials or product design. However, in 2016 Dirk Jordan and Sarah Kurtz from the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) In another large study, from 2012 to 2018 DuPont collaborated with DNV GL to perform a comprehensive performed extensive field inspections on over one literature survey on published PV degradation. This GW (approximately four million modules) from study identified more than 11,000 module degradation systems ranging in age from zero to 30 years. rates from nearly 200 studies worldwide. Of significant DuPont conducted visual inspection, thermal interest is the long tail with degradation exceeding imaging and IR spectroscopy, identifying issues in 1% annually. approximately 22% of the modules surveyed. Their findings are outlined below. 1.3% 0.4% Failure Categorizations 9.5% No defect detected Not Applicable 12% (76.8%) Corrosion, hot spot, Cell/ broken interconnect, Interconnect snail trails, cracks, (12%) burn marks Backsheet Cracking, yellowing, (9.5%) delamination 76.8% Encapsulant Discoloration or (1.3%) delamination Other Broken, etched, (0.4%) hazed glass, etc. 2 4 1 Source: IEA PVPS 2014 2 Source: “Compendium of Photovoltaic Degradation Rates”, D.C. Jordan, et al, NREL, 2016 3 Source: Sub-module failures on ground-mount sites courtesy of Heliolytics, 2018 4 Source: Courtesy of DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions, “Degradation of Fielded PV Modules from Across the Globe”, K.R. Choudhury, et al., 2018 08 ENERGY 2018 PV Module Reliability Scorecard PV MODULE AGING PV MODULE RELIABILITY MECHANISMS & TESTING How was module testing developed? How does degradation relate to module failure? The U.S. Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s (JPL) Block Buy Long-term module power degradation is built into program started in the mid-1970s with the goal of