Weekly Review // March 14 - 20 SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

Observatory

The Southeastern Europe Intelligence Unit is formed by an ambitious group of young scientists which focuses on the political, economic, defense and security developments in the wider region of Southeastern Europe. Our main task is the “Southeastern Europe Observatory” to become a credible, detailed, objective and flexible “tool” of information and short analysis in the hands of the researcher and the professional who is interested in the current affairs of this sensitive and crucial part of the European continent. In each weekly review, you will find the most significant news of the previous week in the region.

SPECIAL COUNTRY REPORT: Turkey Kurds clash with police at Newroz - a cultural or a political suppression?

very year March 21, millions of Kurds across the world celebrate Newroz, which refers to the beginning of the New Year for the Kurdish people. Meaning ‘the new day’ in Kurdish language, Newroz represents the beginning of Spring and the starts of the New EYear. Members of the pro-Kurdish party BDP (Peace and Democracy Party) applied for permission to spread their fests to the days of 17-21 March as they have been doing in previous years. However, this year, the Ministry of the Interior denied permission for the earlier start of Newroz celebrations before the 21st, strictly prohibiting any activity on March 18. The ban arrived soon after the president of the BDP, Selahattin Demirtas declared the official celebrations shall take place on Sunday the 18th, instead of Monday 21st.

Despite the bans, Newroz celebrations took place in Van, Hakkari, Siirt, Mus, Diyarbakır, Instabul and Ankara. Thousands of people gathered, danced, cheered, and shouted slogans, “Long live the leader Apo (here, referring the nick name of their leader Abdullah Ocalan)” and “The PKK is the people”. Kids, teenagers and the elder people were alltogether, dressed in traditional costumes, singing Kurdish songs within the barricades surrounded them by the policemen. Kurdish flags and the pictures of Ocalan were all over, as hundereds of riot police were tasked to stand against the demonstrators and to clash with the resisting groups. The TV showed the police driving the water vehicle onto the groups and throwing tear gas. Media reported that 120 people were arrested and 5 people got injured. Many Kurdish politicians were beaten up as the pictures showed in the newspapers the next day. Hacı Zengin, who is a Kurdish politician responsible of one of the Party’s district in Istanbul reportedly died during a police intervention and one policeman was shot dead. While all this was happening, Prime Minister Erdogan defended the ban and the police action, arguing “ironically” that otherwise the celebrations would have turned into a bloodshed.

The Kurds today consist of almost 20% of the population in Turkey and have been demanding political autonomy for the eastern and southeastern districts for many years now. More than 35.000 guerillas, soldiers and civillians lost their lives, since the PKK started armfire in 1984. Even though AKP (Justice and Development party) government at first seemed moderate towards the Kurdish dispute and initiated a rather radical approach towards the Kurdish with several cultural reforms called ‘Democratic Openning’, the political climate has changed since last summer, when Erdogan was re-elected with collecting 49% of the national votes. Soon after that, the PKK broke out the ceasefire, the bloodshed restarted in the southeast and the pro-Kurdish politicians started to deliver speeches remarking they have arrived to the end of the road. Newroz celebrations have always been marked more political, than cultural, as it happens to be an opportunity for the Kurdish people to cry out loud their strive for their identity. However, the particular tension of this year’s celebrations can also be explained by the break of ties between the Kurdish representatives and the government. It is difficult to tell whether the Kurds and the Turks came to the end of the road, but the main picture drawn over the violence of the previous weekend displays clearly that the two communities do no longer walk on the same road.

Deniz Dag External Scientific Associate/Turkey Liaison/Research Assistant on Defense & Security Issues

1 Weekly Review // March 14 - 20

TOP NEWS FROM THE REGION

ALBANIA: On March 15, The Albanian Minister of Insurance Fund had paid BGN 6 M more for medications in Justice, Eduard Halimi was accused by the Albanian 2011, compared to 2010, when the signing of the contracts prosecutors association of breaching the principle of was under the authority of the Health Ministry. Some of the division of powers and, hence the Albanian Constitution. medications had a price that skyrocketed 10 or more times This took place after a report by the Ministry of Justice that in 2011. was leaked to the media, which claimed that problems in the work of prosecutors were discovered. The Ministry - Bulgarian delegation led by PM Boyko Borissov paid an recommended disciplinary measures and dismissals of 59 official visit to Ankara on the occasion of the first meeting of prosecutors. The prosecutors’ association stated that the the Turkish-Bulgarian High-Level Cooperation Council. report was “not true, absurd and unacceptable”. Pointing to the strong relations between Turkey and Bulgaria, said they attach great importance to Turkish- BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA: Zeljko Komsic has Bulgarian cooperation especially in the energy sector and resigned from all posts in the Social Democratic Party. transportation through which he noted the existing Asian- Komsic was deputy president of the SDP but also held the European connection could be consolidated. President Gul post of ethnic Croat member of the tripartite state said that the agreements signed during the Bulgarian PM’s presidency. He was also a member of the SDP presidency visit to Turkey are the best demonstration that their and a member of the Central Committee. The sudden relations are being deepened and diversified in every way, resignation of such a key member of the party is likely to declaring both countries to be “two neighbors with houses boost criticism of Lagumdzija's leadership of the party. on the same street.” Turkey and Bulgaria, he reiterated, have a responsibility to hearten the regional cooperation - Bosnia adopted a Global Fiscal Framework for 2012-14, and solidarity while improving their bilateral relations. creating a basis for the country to set a proper budget. The global fiscal framework and adoption of a budget were set - Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov said that his as conditions by the IMF to Bosnia in order to continue country will probably withdraw from an agreement with negotiations on new loans, which the government says is Russia's state-owned nuclear company Atomstroy export to needed. Bosnia signed a standby agreement with the IMF build a nuclear power plant in the Danube coastal town of in 2008 for EUR 1.2 billion. However, Bosnia received less Belene. Bulgaria will pay for one of the ordered reactors, than a quarter of the money due to its failure to fulfill the which has already been built. conditions and pass economic reforms, mostly of which stalled owing to the lack of a budget. Without a budget, CROATIA: On March 15, it was announced that a train Bosnia could not pay off its international loans at the line connecting Moscow and Split will start operating in the beginning of 2012. summer. This announcement by Russian Railways is considered as a sign of increased interest in Croatia from - Bosnia will ask the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for Russia, making a trip to Croatia via rail, accessible to those a new loan deal. The two regions that constitute Bosnia citizens, who cannot afford the more expensive plane estimate that there will be deficits in their respective ticket. Tourism operators are highly optimistic about this budgets this year as access to external funding has decision become increasingly difficult. Both see the IMF loan as the most favorable solution for covering budget holes while - On March 20, the three defendants in the Fimi Media keeping fiscal discipline. The IMF has repeatedly urged case, former HDZ treasurer, Mladen Barisic, former HDZ Bosnia's authorities to come up with a common strategy on accountant, Branka Pavosevic, and Fimi media company economic policymaking in order to resume talks with the owner, Nevenka Jurak, pleaded guilty in the preliminary lender. hearing. Fimi-media is one of the historically biggest scandals in Croatian history. It has involved the name of BULGARIA: Bulgarian Economy and Health ministers former Prime Minister, Ivo Sanader, who allegedly resigned. Bulgarian PM Boiko Borissov has accepted the extracted money of state companies through the Fimi- resignations of Economy Minister Traicho Traikov and media agency and the party's former campaign manager, Health Minister Stefan Konstantinov. Traikov's resignation Ratko Macek. They both continue to deny all the charges. comes a day after Qatar businessmen failed to show up at In what the defendants are concerned, Barisic's counsel a much publicized in Bulgaria bilateral business forum in Ante Madunic declared, "Even though we made no plea Doha. Konstantinov is the third Health Minister in the bargain, we can't move away from such a defence given GERB cabinet has been resigned. The scandal around the that it was true and it is our most important mitigating Minister flared after it emerged that National Health circumstance." 2 Weekly Review // March 14 - 20

- On March 20, the Ministry of Finance released figures for - On March 16, Interior Minister Gordana Jankulovska and 2012 so far, it is depicted an increase of 6.6 percent in her Montenegrin counterpart Ivan Brajovic signed a Police revenues and a 2.5 percent decrease in expenditure Cooperation Agreement which is planned to assist the two compared to 2011. Analytically, revenue to date was HRK states to combat crime and corruption. They also 21.5bn (EUR2.8bn), while expenditures declined by 2.5% to HRK 25.9bn. Furthermore, the figures showed that in the announced that a law on crossing countries’ borders only period from January 1 to March 16, budget revenues were with an ID is being drafted. about HRK1.3bn higher compared to the same period of 2011, while expenditures limited by HRK644m. (Source: - On March 14, the owner of the out of commission pro- bne.eu) opposition A1 TV Velija Ramkovski was sentenced to 13 years in jail after a years’ trial on charges of tax evasion, - On March 16, an historical visit took place when the criminal association, money laundering and misuse of Slovenian Committee for External Relations visited Croatia, office. Ramkovski’s side stated that it will appeal the after 14 years. The meeting happened in a “warm atmosphere” and both sides expressed their will to find a verdict. The police still seek Ramkovski’s son Hedi which mutual accepted solution in the border dispute they face. was sentenced to seven years incarceration in absentia. Moreover the Chairman of the Slovenian Committee, Josef Horvat stated that his country Parliament will validate the GREECE: On March 19, Former Finance Minister Croatian accession to the EU soon. Evangelos Venizelos was elected the new leader of the P.A.S.O.K. party. Venizelos was the only candidate in the F.Y.R. MACEDONIA: On March 16, the President of P.A.S.O.K. party leadership rally. The turn-out in the open F.Y.R. of Macedonia, Gjorge Ivanov met with his party election was larger than expected while it reached Montenegrin counterpart Filip Vujanovic in Skopje. The two 200.000 party members and supporters. Venizelos stepped presidents underlined that their countries share a common down as Finance Minister in order to lead P.A.S.O.K. to the past and a common future and stressed that their mutual upcoming elections. Philippos Sachinidis assumed his strategic goal is the NATO and EU membership. The position in the Ministry of Finance. Sachinidis was the Montenegrin President also met with PM Gruevski. deputy finance minister in both Papademos and Vujanovic and Gruevski agreed that Montenegro and Papandreou governments. F.Y.R. of Macedonia should enhance cooperation in all fields. On the same day President Ivanov met with the - On March 20, the new bailout Accord was approved by Albanian Deputy Prime Minister & FM Edmond Haxhinasto the parliament with 213 votes for and 79 against. The assessing bilateral relations as excellent. Broadening Papademos government got the mandate to implement cooperation on the economic sector and continuing mutual budget measures and after securing the bailout can lead support on EU and NATO integration procedures were the country towards parliamentary elections. discussed. - On March 15, the International Monetary Fund board - On March 20, FM Poposki held a meeting with his approved EUR 28 billion participation in the Greek bailout German counterpart Guido Westerwelle and discussed package. The IMF said it would immediately hand EUR political and economic issues as well as the countries EU 1.65 billion to the Greek government, as a first part of the and NATO integration process. Westerwelle expressed EUR 130 billion international rescue package to keep Germany’s support to the NATO and EU route of F.Y.R. of Greece funded through 2014 and avoid an unconditional Macedonia. default.

- On March 17, PM Gruevsky announced that the Turkish - On March 19, the first installment of the bailout package Limak Holding will invest over 100 m$ in the constructions (€ 5.9 billion) was received. Greece will receive a total of sector and another 100 m$ in the sectors of tourism, €172.7 billion from its Eurozone partners and the IMF until energy and agriculture. 2016. The EU points out that the financial assistance will not be enough if Greece does not succeed in attracting - On March 16, the 9th Annual Ministerial Conference on investors and boosting growth. Cooperation on Border Security in SEE was held in Skopje. The attendants agreed that substantial progress has been KOSOVO (Under 1244 UN Resolution): On March 14, made during the last 10 years in the region, especially in Former EU Balkans envoy Stefan Lehne, in a policy report the field of combating illegal migration. published by the Carnegie Endowment for International 3 Weekly Review // March 14 - 20

Peace, claimed that closer cooperation between Belgrade does not only honour Vujanovic as a personality but also and Pristina with the participation of Northern Kosovo Montenegro for its attempt to promote inter-ethnic representatives, enhanced regional autonomy for Northern coexistence. Kosovo regions and international guarantees of the Serbian Orthodox heritage could foster a solution to the Status - On March 18, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in question. Moreover, he provided an evaluation of President Europe James Stavridis, stated during his visit to Podgorica B. Tadic's 4-points resolution noting that despite that that Montenegro is close to the NATO accession. Stavridis Pristina's authority was not recognized, the abolition of the urged Montenegro to continue to implement reforms and prospect of partition was a step in the right direction. that in the end it will be rewarded with the NATO membership. In his statement, president Vujanovic thanked - On March 18, Pristina delegation walked out of the first Stavridis for NATO’s humanitarian assistance during this regional forum, it was to attend in Belgrade after 1999. year’s harsh winter. According to Serbian media, this occurred after Kosovo representatives' denial to participate under their official title. ROMANIA: Hungary's Minister of Foreign Affairs Janos According to the Albanians' incumbents, the organizers' Martonyi in an official visit in Bucharest said that behavior breached title 2 and 4 of the Belgrade-Pristina postponing the political decision on Romania and agreements on regional representation. Analytically, Bulgaria's joining the Schengen Area is not 'fair,' given that according to the achieved solution, Kosovo, instead of the the two countries were considered to have met the required title Kosovo-UNMIK, will be presented as Kosovo. A terms. Foreign Minister Diaconescu said that Hungary and footnote will state, "This designation is without prejudice to Romania are interested in streamlining their economic positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the cooperation both in terms of interconnection of their power ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence." grids and the important regional infrastructure projects. He Similarly, a Serbian delegation walked out of a forum in pointed out that projects like Nabucco and AGRI are joint Montenegro claiming that the Kosovar delegation was not targets of both countries and the cross-border cooperation represented in accordance to the agreement. is a priority, too. Romania's top diplomat said that the cooperation between the Romanian and the Hungarian - On March 17, the 8th anniversary of the escalation of Ministries for Foreign Affairs will be boosted regarding the violence in Kosovska Mitrovica was marked. It was on EU funds absorption. Moreover, Foreign Minister March 16, 2004, after a campaign led by Albanian- Diaconescu said that the Danube Strategy will be held in language media that local Serbs with their dogs chased six view, and the European partners will be encouraged to Albanian boys into the Ibar River, causing three of them to finance the Strategy appropriately. drown, that the violence broke out. That day 19 people, 11 Albanians and eight Serbs were killed, more than 900 - The Romanian Executive has approved the draft law on persons were injured, more than 5.000 Serbs and other the stability, coordination and governance within the non-Albanians were expelled from their homes and 34 Economic Monetary Union. The draft law will be sent to Serbian Orthodox churches were destroyed. Serbian Parliament for debate and approval. Ministry for Kosovo State Secretary Oliver Ivanović - Romania had the highest increase in passenger car depicted that Serbia must not allow the catastrophic registrations in the first two months this year in the consequences of the March 2004 violence to be forgotten. European Union – up 54 percent on the same period in

MONTENEGRO: On March 18, a mass protest was 2011. Around 9,000 new cars were registered in Romania held in the center of Podgorica. At the protest, held by a in the first two months of this year, which is however slogan “it’s about time”, over ten thousand people and among the lowest totals for newly registered cars in organizers, NGO MANS, Free Trade Unions and Students’ Europe. Union, urged government to end corruption and nepotism - The EBRD’s Board of Directors has adopted a new three- and to increase employment opportunities. year strategy for Romania, which outlines the Bank’s key - On March 18, the Montenegrin president Filip Vujanovic priorities for supporting the country’s further transition. The has been declared an honorary citizen of Skopje by Skopje strategy notes that despite signs of modest economic Mayor Koce Trajanovski. Trajanovski stated that the award recovery in 2011, based on a strong harvest and exports, 4 Weekly Review // March 14 - 20 the short-term macroeconomic outlook for Romania "We expect the refinery will stimulate business activity in remains uncertain in light of the renewed turmoil in the euro the town, and in the second and third cycle, encourage the zone and global markets. The document stresses that the creation micro, small and medium companies." country has a strong long-term growth potential, which can SLOVENIA: On March 14, a round table debate in be realized by addressing the remaining transition Gornja Radgona among the present and former agriculture challenges. ministers, Bogovic and Zidan respectively, supported that the Slovenian agriculture will not survive, unless all the - Romanian employers are maintaining their optimism over players in the farming sector take organized and systemic employment in the second quarter of this year and see action. The debate was organized by the newspaper growth in the number of staff over the next three months, publisher Vecer and it focused on problems related to pig despite the economic tensions in the region, according to a breeding. Bogovic called for a joint appearance of the recent Manpower survey. One in five employers will be breeders on the market and technological upgrades hiring in the next quarter, while around seven out of ten whereas Zidan claimed that the main problem was the fact surveyed employers say they will maintain current staffing that the market is controlled by three multinationals along levels. These forecasts are similar to those in the first with the loss of jobs in forestry. Bogovic said that he will quarter of this year, and are the most optimistic in the last take action by reviewing legislation and adopting strategic three years. Most hiring will be in trading and retail, where guidelines for agriculture and environment by the end of the the net forecast of employment will be 21 percent, mainly summer. due to an increased demand of products and services in this area. A stable climate for hiring pace is expected in - On March 19, Foreign Minister Karl Erjavec and his three sectors, mainly the finance, insurance, real estate Croatian counterpart Vesna Pusic agreed at a meeting in and business services sector, manufacturing area, and in Zagreb that the Slovenian and Croatian governments public administration and social services. should meet to discuss all open issues. Hope was expressed by Pusic that this meeting will occur before SERBIA: On March 15, the ruling Democratic Party (DS) made a coalition with other five parties (the Social summer. During the meeting in Zagreb, the two foreign Democratic Party of Serbia, League of Social Democrats of ministers discussed in a positive atmosphere about the Vojvodina, the Greens of Serbia, the Democratic Union of continuation of the activities of the joint commission and the Croats, the Christian Democratic Party of Serbia) under the further advancement of their cooperation on economy, name of “Choice for a better life - Boris Tadic”. energy and infrastructure. Erjavec’s visit to Croatia was the Parliamentary and local elections will take place on May 6 first official visit of a Slovenian foreign minister since 2004. in Serbia.

- On March 15, Boris Tadic met with the Vlach National TURKEY: On March 16, 12 Turkish soldiers were killed council representatives and agreed on the fact that the in a helicopter crash in Afghanistan. The Sikorsky Vlachs in Serbia are granted all rights and freedoms. helicopter that was serving under the Kabul regional Moreover, both parts agreed that that the economic command as part of the International Security Assistance development of eastern Serbia, where the Vlach minority is Force (ISAF), went down at 10.25 a.m. local time in the significant, should be enhanced and supported. Finally, at Hassian Khail area of the Bagrami district of Kabul the meeting were present Deputy Presidents Miletic province. The incident occurred due to technical problems Mihajlovic and Dragi Damjanovic, Neli Jorgevic, Miodrag Markovic, Dragan Balasevic, and Vlach National Council faced by the helicopter. According to NATO there was no President and Secretary Radisa Dragojevic and Bojan insurgent activity at the time of the crush; the helicopter Modrlanovic respectively. went down as it was trying to make an emergency landing. The crash also caused the death of 2 Afghan civillians and - On March 15, U.S Company, Comico Oil, saluted the the injury of another two. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs Smederevo town assembly decision to allow them leasing land and soon a contract between the parts will be signed, announced its grievance over the death of the twelve as Comico Oil is interested in building an oil refinery in soldiers and remarked that Turkish aid to Afghanistan will Smederevo. The investment encompasses a completely sustain its presence. Turkey contributes 1,845 troops to new factory located on a 113-hectare plot and a Greenfield ISAF. It was the deadliest incident that involved Turkish investment worth USD 250 million; this project is highly soldiers in Afghanistan as they have a noncombat role in important in the contemporary time of crisis according to the area and their mission is limited to patrols. the Smederevo Mayor Predrag Umicevic, who declared 5 Weekly Review // March 14 - 20

-On March 16, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a ‘call to return’ for all the Turkish citizens currently living in Syria as the recent developments pose serious security risks. The announcement further stated that those who are obliged to pass through the Syrian border shall choose day time for travel. The services of the Turkish consulate in Damascus will be suspended as of 17:00 on March 22 whereas the consulate in Aleppo will remain open and continue its services. According to a Turkish official, this is a security measure, not a political reaction to the Syrian regime.

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