BALTIC SECURITY STRATEGY REPORT WHAT THE BALTICS CAN OFFER FOR A STRONGER ALLIANCE __________________________________________________ Olevs Nikers and Otto Tabuns, Editors Washington, DC 2019 THE JAMESTOWN FOUNDATION Published in the United States by The Jamestown Foundation 1310 L Street NW Suite 810 Washington, DC 20005 http://www.jamestown.org Copyright © 2019 The Jamestown Foundation All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this book may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written consent. For copyright and permissions information, contact The Jamestown Foundation, 1310 L Street NW, Suite 810, Washington, DC 20005. The Baltic Security Strategy Project was made possible by funding from the Baltic-American Freedom Foundation (BAFF). For more information about BAFF scholarships and speaker support, visit www.balticamericanfreedomfoundation.org. Additional support for the Project came from The Jamestown Foundation and the Latvian Political Science Association. The views expressed in the book are those of the contributors and not necessarily those of The Jamestown Foundation or any other organization or government. For more information on this book of The Jamestown Foundation, email [email protected]. ISBN: 978-0-9986660-5-1 Cover art provided by Peggy Archambault of Peggy Archambault Design. Jamestown’s Mission The Jamestown Foundation’s mission is to inform and educate policy makers and the broader community about events and trends in those societies which are strategically or tactically important to the United States and which frequently restrict access to such information. Utilizing indigenous and primary sources, Jamestown’s material is delivered without political bias, filter or agenda. It is often the only source of information which should be, but is not always, available through official or intelligence channels, especially in regard to Eurasia and terrorism. Origins Founded in 1984 by William Geimer, The Jamestown Foundation made a direct contribution to the downfall of Communism through its dissemination of information about the closed totalitarian societies of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. William Geimer worked with Arkady Shevchenko, the highest- ranking Soviet official ever to defect when he left his position as undersecretary general of the United Nations. Shevchenko’s memoir Breaking With Moscow revealed the details of Soviet superpower diplomacy, arms control strategy and tactics in the Third World, at the height of the Cold War. Through its work with Shevchenko, Jamestown rapidly became the leading source of information about the inner workings of the captive nations of the former Communist Bloc. In addition to Shevchenko, Jamestown assisted the former top Romanian intelligence officer Ion Pacepa in writing his memoirs. Jamestown ensured that both men published their insights and experience in what became bestselling books. Even today, several decades later, some credit Pacepa’s revelations about Ceausescu’s regime in his bestselling book Red Horizons with the fall of that government and the freeing of Romania. The Jamestown Foundation has emerged as a leading provider of information about Eurasia. Our research and analysis on conflict and instability in Eurasia enabled Jamestown to become one of the most reliable sources of information on the post-Soviet space, the Caucasus and Central Asia as well as China. Furthermore, since 9/11, Jamestown has utilized its network of indigenous experts in more than 50 different countries to conduct research and analysis on terrorism and the growth of al-Qaeda and al-Qaeda offshoots throughout the globe. By drawing on our ever-growing global network of experts, Jamestown has become a vital source of unfiltered, open-source information about major conflict zones around the world—from the Black Sea to Siberia, from the Persian Gulf to Latin America and the Pacific. Our core of intellectual talent includes former high-ranking government officials and military officers, political scientists, journalists, scholars and economists. Their insight contributes significantly to policymakers engaged in addressing today’s newly emerging global threats in the post 9/11 world. iii Table of Contents Preface…………………………………………………………..v Introduction…………………………………………………..viii Looking Strategically at Baltic Security Cooperation………..xvii 1. DEFENSE AND DETERRENCE…………………………….1 1.1. Expert Assessment………………………………………..1 1.2. Defense and Deterrence In-Depth Analysis……………18 1.3. Interoperability as a Matter of Survival…………………48 1.4. Legal Aspects of Defense Cooperation………………….53 1.5. Expert Recommendations………………………………64 2. SOCIETAL SECURITY AND RESILIENCE……………….67 2.1. Expert Assessment………………………………………67 2.2. Taking a Hybrid Governance Approach Against Hybrid Warfare: Lessons From National Cyber Security Incident Response Teams……………………………...77 2.3. Defeating Disinformation Threats……………………...84 2.4. Disaster Risk Reduction and Urban Resilience………..109 2.5. Expert Recommendations……………………………..116 3. ECONOMIC SECURITY………………………………….119 3.1. Expert Assessment……………………………………..119 3.2. Energy Security………………………………………...132 3.3. Financial Security……………………………………...139 3.4. Transportation and Infrastructure Security…………...151 3.5. Expert Recommendations……………………………..161 iv 4. CYBERSECURITY………………………………………...167 4.1. Expert Assessment……………………………………..167 4.2. Addressing Cooperation Challenges…………………..171 4.3. Expert Recommendations……………………………..182 ANNEX I – Tables……………………………………………188 ANNEX II – Key Project Dates………………………………194 Author Biographies…………………………………………..195 v Preface Dear Reader, The Baltic Security Strategy Project was launched to promote Baltic regional security and defense. To achieve this, the project aimed to promote a public discussion on Baltic security, foster synchronization of Baltic security and defense, maintain the issue of Baltic security on the agendas of Baltic allies and partners, as well as help Baltic security experts cooperate among themselves and with experts in the United States. We brought together experts, professionals and scholars to assess the current state of security cooperation between the Baltic countries and issues we are facing together. In discussing these issues, we generated a set of recommendations for policymakers and produced a kind of roadmap to our strategic partners, NATO and EU. Since February 2017, the project has held over a dozen public events on Baltic security, gathering 250 participants and 90 security experts, organizing panel discussions in Riga, Brussels, Stanford and Washington, DC, featuring a dozen Baltic and American security, involving five American interns and presenting the results to top decision and opinion makers across the Transatlantic sphere. The conclusions of this process, our findings and recommendations are included in this final report. This report addresses challenges to Defense and Deterrence, Societal Security and Resilience, Economic Security, and Cyber Security. It focuses on solutions through intra-regional Baltic cooperation that also matter to wider regional security and the broader Transatlantic relationship. vi | BALTIC SECURITY STRATEGY REPORT The organizers of the Baltic Security Strategy Project wish to express their gratitude to their key supporters: the Baltic-American Freedom Foundation, The Jamestown Foundation, the US Embassy in Riga, the Association for Advancement of Baltic Studies, the Joint Baltic American National Committee and the Latvian Political Science Association. In addition, as the project’s organizers, we wish to express our gratitude to institutions that provided assistance or advice, and were represented at various project events throughout the last two years. These include the Baltic Assembly, the Saeima of Latvia, the US Congress, and the ministries of defense, foreign affairs, finance, culture and economy of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. We also extend our gratitude to the Baltic Defense College, the Riga Graduate School of Law, the National Defense Academy of Latvia, the Military Academy of Lithuania, the University of Latvia, Tallinn University, Texas A&M University and New York University. Furthermore, we wish to thank the Eastern Europe Studies Center at Vilnius University, the International Center for Defense and Security in Estonia, the Hudson Institute, as well as the Prague Security Studies Institute. The analysis of Baltic defense was delivered by Mr. Glen Grant, Dr. Giedrius Česnakas, Mr. Anthony Lawrence, Col. (ret.) Zdzisław Śliwa, BGen. Ilmārs Lejiņš, Capt. Navy (Ret.) William Combes, Dr. Viljar Veebel, Ms. Ieva Miļūna, Mr. Edgars Poga, Mr. Illimar Ploom, Mr. Mr. Valdis Otzulis, Mr. Liudas Zdanavičius, Kaspars Druvaskalns, Mr. Edvards Seliška and Mr. Dainis Butners. The analysis of Baltic societal security was delivered by Dr. Žaneta Ozoliņa, Ms. Kārina Pētersone, Mr. Jānis Kažociņš, Ms. Inita Pauloviča, Mr. Andris Mellakauls, Mr. Ēriks Kristiāns Selga, Mr. Edmunds Āķītis, Dr. Ivo Juurvee, Ms. Anne-Ly Reimaa, Ms. Dalia Bankauskaitė, Mr. Simas Čelutka, Ms. Rasa Zdanevičiūtė, Mr. Gatis Pelnēns, Mr. Edvards Seliška, Mr. Kaspars Druvaskalns, Mr. Mart Viires, Mr. Vytautas Keršanskas, Ms. Laima Zlatkutė, Ms. Alina Clay Preface | vii and Ms. Gunda Reire. The analysis of Baltic economic security was delivered by Dr. Giedrius Česnakas, Mr. Liudas Zdanavicius, Mr. Jako Reinaste, Mr. Gunārs Valdmanis, Dr. Tadas Jakštas, Mr. Juris Ozoliņš, Mr. Reinis Āboltiņš, Mr. Nerijus Kaucikas, Mr. Dainis Dravnieks, Mr. Osvaldas Šmitas, Mr. Karl Kull, Dr. Arunas