New Jersey Auto Outlook Sponsored By: NJ CAR

Covering Third Quarter 2014 Volume 25, Number 4 New Jersey Auto Outlook Sponsored by: NJ CAR

FORECAST State New Vehicle Market On Track for 2.9% Gain in 2014 Sixth consecutive annual increase predicted for next year

Information overload is hard to avoid these Trucks grab a larger share of state market Honda Accord best-selling car in state mar- days. Here’s our attempt to cut through the Light truck market share increased from ket; CR-V is light truck leader clutter. Below is a concise summary of key 45.8% during the first nine months of 2013 to Honda Civic and Nissan Altima were ranked trends and developments in the New Jersey 49.7% this year. Consumers are clearly mak- second and third behind Accord in the car new vehicle market. ing their preference known for larger vehicles, market, while Jeep Grand Cherokee and Nis- especially crossover SUVs. san Rogue trailed the CR-V. State market posts gain during first three quarters of 2014; increase is below Nation Alternative powertrain vehicle sales are Detroit Three gain ground in 2014, as Ko- State new retail registrations were up 2.7% for down in 2014 rean brands lose share the first nine months of this year (September State sales of hybrid and electric cars and Detroit Three accounted for a larger chunk of figures were estimated) versus a year earlier, trucks fell 6.8% so far this year, while the over- the state market so far this year, with share below the 6.5% uptick in the National market. all market improved. Market share was still increasing from 28.0% during the first nine low, at just 2.3%. months of 2013 to 29.5% in 2014. New vehicle market has small increase in Third Quarter of this year Honda, Toyota, Ford, Nissan, and Hyundai The Third Quarter increase was a slim 0.9%, are leaders in state market as the market struggled to improve on strong Honda was the best selling brand during the 2015 Forecast year-earlier results (see page 2). first three quarters of this year, with a 13.4% share. Toyota’s share was 10.8%. Sixth consecutive annual increase likely in 2015 Jeep, Ram, Subaru, Lincoln, and Audi gain a Up State new retail light vehicle registrations are lot of ground in 2014 predicted to increase 2.0% from 2014 to New retail registrations for each of these five 2% 2015. This year’s annual increase is pegged brands were up more than 10% so far in 2014. at 2.9%.

Annual Trend in State Market Market Summary

YTD '13 YTD '14 % Chg. Mkt. Share 550,000 thru Sept. thru Sept.* '13 to '14 YTD '14* TOTAL 369,064 378,855 2.7% 500,000 498,000 508,000 450,000 483,954 Car 200,046 190,419 -4.8% 50.3% 400,000 443,900 Light Truck 169,018 188,436 11.5% 49.7% 419,021 350,000 425,770 400,314 Detroit Three 103,506 111,785 8.0% 29.5% New light vehicle registrations 300,000 358,410 European 57,314 55,627 -2.9% 14.7% 250,000 Japanese 171,760 175,819 2.4% 46.4% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Korean 36,484 35,624 -2.4% 9.4% Forecast Forecast Detroit Three consists of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, and Chrysler. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the state *Figures for September, 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook. from 2008 thru 2013, and Auto Outlook’s projections for all of 2014 and 2015. Historical data source: Polk. Historical figures were revised and will differ slightly from those presented in previous issues. Source: Polk. Page 2 New Jersey Auto Outlook MARKET TRACKER: QUARTERLY RESULTS State Market Increased 0.9% in 3rd Quarter 2014 vs. 7.1% in U.S.

QUARTERLY TREND QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE Percent Change in New Vehicle Market Five Years of Third Quarter Results State and U.S. in State Market

140000 10.0% The state market improved at a slower pace than the U.S. in the 9.0% 3rd Quarter of 2014. 120000 N.J. 8.0% U.S. 100000 7.0%

6.0% 80000

5.0% The market was up by more than 60000 26,000 units in the Third Quarter 4.0% of 2014 vs. 2010.

% change versus year earlier 3.0% 40000 New retail light vehicle registrations

2.0% 20000 1.0%

0.0% 0 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14* Q3 '10 Q3 '11 Q3 '12 Q3 '13 Q3 '14* N.J. 1.1% 2.0% 5.1% 0.9% Regs. 106319 104699 110120 132036 133176 U.S. 4.9% 4.3% 7.8% 7.1% Third Quarter registrations during past ﬁve years

* Figures for Third Quarter 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook based * Figures for Third Quarter 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook on data for July and August. based on data for July and August. Data Source: Polk. Data Source: Polk.

New Jersey Auto Outlook

Covering Third Quarter 2014

Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Phone: 800-206-0102 EMail: [email protected] Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz

Reproduction, including photocopying of this publication in whole or in part, is prohibited without the express permission of Auto Outlook, Inc. Any material quoted must be attributed to New Jersey Auto Outlook, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of NJCar, and must also include the state- ment: “Data Source: Polk.” Unforeseen events may affect the forecast projections presented. Consequently, Auto Outlook, Inc. is not responsible for management decisions based on the content of New Jersey Auto Outlook. Covering Third Quarter 2014 Page 3 MARKET TRACKER: BRAND MARKET SHARE MARKET TRACKER: HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES Detroit 3 Share Improves Hybrid/Electric Share Slips

Change in State Market Share Quarterly Alternative Powertrain Market Share YTD 2014 thru September* vs. YTD 2013 (includes hybrid and electric vehicles) 3.0% Detroit Three 1.5 2.5%

Japanese -0.1 2.0%

1.5% Korean -0.5 Detroit 3 share Trendline 1.0% increased 1.5 Alternative powertrain market share has trended points. European -0.8 0.5% higher over the past three years, but was down slightly in the Third Quarter of this year. 0.0% -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Change in market share '11 '12 '12 '12 '12 '13 '13 '13 '13 '14 '14 '14*

The graph above shows the change in year-to-date market share The graph above shows hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle quarterly market share in the for four primary brand segments. *Figures for September, 2014 state. The line shows market share trend over the past 12 quarters. *Third Quarter 2014 in- were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data Source: Polk. cludes July and August. Source: Polk. MARKET TRACKER: SEGMENTS Compact SUV Segment Leads State Market

New Jersey Segment Market Share Review Market Share Market Share Change in share Best selling model Segment YTD ‘13 thru August YTD ‘14 thru August YTD ‘13 to ‘14 in segment Compact SUV 15.8 19.2 3.4 Honda CR-V Standard Mid Size Car 18.8 17.7 -1.1 Honda Accord Sub Compact Car 17.4 15.2 -2.2 Honda Civic Mid Size SUV 3 Rows 7.9 7.6 -0.3 Ford Explorer Near Luxury Car 7.1 6.6 -0.5 BMW 3-Series Mid Size Luxury SUV 5.1 5.4 0.3 Lexus RX Luxury and Sports Cars 4.5 4.4 -0.1 Mercedes E-Class Mid Size SUV 2 Rows 4.1 4.4 0.3 Jeep Grand Cherokee Full Size Pickup 3.9 4.2 0.3 Ford F Series Mini Van 3.4 3.1 -0.3 Honda Odyssey Compact Luxury SUV 2.4 2.6 0.2 Acura RDX Entry Car 2.7 2.4 -0.3 Kia Soul Large Mid Size Car 2.0 2.0 0.0 Nissan Maxima Entry Luxury Car 0.8 1.2 0.4 Mercedes CLA-Class Full Size Van 1.0 1.0 0.0 Ford E-Series Full Size SUV 0.7 0.9 0.2 GMC Yukon Sport Compact Car 1.1 0.9 -0.2 Chevrolet Camaro Compact Pickup 0.9 0.8 -0.1 Toyota Tacoma Full Size Luxury SUV 0.5 0.5 0.0 Cadillac Escalade

The table above shows New Jersey market share for 19 vehicle segments during the first eight months of 2013 and 2014, and the change in market share over the period. The best selling model in each segment is also shown. Segments are ranked from top to bottom based on 2014 share. Most popular segment in the state is Compact SUV, which also had the largest gain. Data Source: Polk. Page 4 New Jersey Auto Outlook

Brand Registrations Report New Jersey New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations Third Quarter* YTD thru September Registrations Market Share (%) Registrations Market Share (%) 3Q 2013 3Q 2014 % change 3Q 2013 3Q 2014 Change YTD '13 YTD '14* % change YTD '13 YTD '14* Change TOTAL 132,036 133,176 0.9 369,064 378,855 2.7

Cars 70,763 67,705 -4.3 53.6 50.8 -2.8 200,046 190,419 -4.8 54.2 50.3 -3.9 Light Trucks 61,273 65,471 6.9 46.4 49.2 2.8 169,018 188,436 11.5 45.8 49.7 3.9

Domestic Brands 36,663 38,242 4.3 27.8 28.7 0.9 103,506 111,785 8.0 28.0 29.5 1.5 European Brands 19,750 18,903 -4.3 15.0 14.2 -0.8 57,314 55,627 -2.9 15.5 14.7 -0.8 Japanese Brands 62,994 63,553 0.9 47.7 47.7 0.0 171,760 175,819 2.4 46.5 46.4 -0.1 Korean Brands 12,629 12,478 -1.2 9.6 9.4 -0.2 36,484 35,624 -2.4 9.9 9.4 -0.5

Acura 2,931 2,624 -10.5 2.2 2.0 -0.2 8,215 7,647 -6.9 2.2 2.0 -0.2 Audi 2,338 2,515 7.6 1.8 1.9 0.1 6,823 7,566 10.9 1.8 2.0 0.2 BMW 5,097 5,004 -1.8 3.9 3.8 -0.1 14,483 14,943 3.2 3.9 3.9 0.0 Buick 1,766 1,670 -5.4 1.3 1.3 0.0 4,881 4,722 -3.3 1.3 1.2 -0.1 Cadillac 1,948 1,693 -13.1 1.5 1.3 -0.2 5,289 5,002 -5.4 1.4 1.3 -0.1 Chevrolet 6,909 6,786 -1.8 5.2 5.1 -0.1 19,727 19,628 -0.5 5.3 5.2 -0.1 Chrysler 1,518 1,339 -11.8 1.1 1.0 -0.1 4,040 3,671 -9.1 1.1 1.0 -0.1 Dodge 2,353 2,170 -7.8 1.8 1.6 -0.2 6,816 6,795 -0.3 1.8 1.8 0.0 FIAT 290 211 -27.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 675 709 5.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 Ford 11,468 11,358 -1.0 8.7 8.5 -0.2 34,030 34,253 0.7 9.2 9.0 -0.2 GMC 2,652 3,031 14.3 2.0 2.3 0.3 7,729 8,496 9.9 2.1 2.2 0.1 Honda 19,002 18,751 -1.3 14.4 14.1 -0.3 53,141 50,918 -4.2 14.4 13.4 -1.0 Hyundai 8,205 7,772 -5.3 6.2 5.8 -0.4 24,100 22,369 -7.2 6.5 5.9 -0.6 Infiniti 2,076 1,772 -14.6 1.6 1.3 -0.3 5,625 5,877 4.5 1.5 1.6 0.1 Jaguar 270 157 -41.9 0.2 0.1 -0.1 670 490 -26.9 0.2 0.1 -0.1 Jeep 5,598 7,708 37.7 4.2 5.8 1.6 14,722 21,563 46.5 4.0 5.7 1.7 Kia 4,424 4,621 4.5 3.4 3.5 0.1 12,384 13,170 6.3 3.4 3.5 0.1 Land Rover 657 634 -3.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 1,882 1,984 5.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 Lexus 3,919 3,979 1.5 3.0 3.0 0.0 9,982 10,891 9.1 2.7 2.9 0.2 Lincoln 875 915 4.6 0.7 0.7 0.0 2,193 2,545 16.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 Mazda 3,120 3,295 5.6 2.4 2.5 0.1 8,635 9,001 4.2 2.3 2.4 0.1 Mercedes 4,856 4,730 -2.6 3.7 3.6 -0.1 14,215 14,284 0.5 3.9 3.8 -0.1 MINI 598 531 -11.2 0.5 0.4 -0.1 1,790 1,599 -10.7 0.5 0.4 -0.1 Mitsubishi 595 628 5.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 1,735 1,761 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 Nissan 11,803 12,128 2.8 8.9 9.1 0.2 30,780 33,537 9.0 8.3 8.9 0.6 Other 196 342 74.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 636 1,004 57.9 0.2 0.3 0.1 Porsche 299 356 19.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 949 1,034 9.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 Ram 1,385 1,607 16.0 1.0 1.2 0.2 3,529 4,804 36.1 1.0 1.3 0.3 Subaru 4,442 5,618 26.5 3.4 4.2 0.8 12,060 15,260 26.5 3.3 4.0 0.7 Tesla 172 85 -50.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 473 360 -23.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 Toyota 15,094 14,735 -2.4 11.4 11.1 -0.3 41,531 40,889 -1.5 11.3 10.8 -0.5 Volkswagen 4,120 3,444 -16.4 3.1 2.6 -0.5 12,381 9,449 -23.7 3.4 2.5 -0.9 Volvo 1,060 967 -8.8 0.8 0.7 -0.1 2,943 2,634 -10.5 0.8 0.7 -0.1 *September 2014 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: Polk

The table above shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in the New Jersey market. Figures are shown for the Third Quarters of 2013 and 2014, and year-to-date totals for 2013 and 2014. The top ten ranked brands in each category are shaded gray. Covering Third Quarter 2014 Page 5 BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART ONE Jeep Registrations Increase by Over 6,800 Units Jeep also had the biggest percentage increase so far this year

The graph below presents a comprehensive measures on the same graph provides a more Lincoln registrations have increased by only picture of brands that are gaining (or losing) clear-cut signal on how each brand is doing. 352 units. Nissan’s percentage increase is in ground in the state market. It shows both the the middle of the pack (up 9%), but unit reg- unit AND percent change in registrations dur- Here are a couple of examples: Lincoln has istrations were up by a sizeable 2,757. Jeep ing the first nine months of this year versus had a big percentage increase so far this year has posted big gains this year. Registrations the same period a year earlier. Viewing both (up 16.1%; shown by the thick gray bar on the increased by 6,841 units versus a year earlier, graph), but it’s a relatively low-selling brand. up 46.5%.

Change in New Jersey New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations (YTD 2014 thru September vs. YTD 2013)

Unit change ( thin black bars) -7500 -5000 -2500 0 2500 5000 7500 Jeep Subaru Nissan Ram Lexus Kia GMC Audi The graph shows the unit and percent BMW change in registrations so far this year. Mazda Unit change is represented by the thin Lincoln black bars, while the values are shown Inﬁniti on the top axis. The thick gray bars show the percent change, with the Ford values on the bottom axis. Land Rover Porsche Mercedes FIAT Mitsubishi % change Dodge Unit change Chevrolet Buick MINI Cadillac Volvo Chrysler Acura Toyota Hyundai Honda Volkswagen -75.0% -50.0% -25.0% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 75.0% Percent change (thick gray bars)

*Figures for Sept., 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: Polk. Page 6 New Jersey Auto Outlook BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART TWO Honda is Non-Luxury Car Brand Leader; Ford #1 for Trucks BMW is best selling luxury car brand; Lexus leads for luxury trucks

The four graphs below show market share leaders in New Jersey during top ranked Non Luxury Light Truck brand, ahead of Honda and Jeep. the past six months for four primary segments. (Note: figures for Sep- BMW was the best-selling Luxury Car brand, while Lexus was highest tember, 2014 were estimated.) Honda was the best-selling Non Luxury for trucks. Car brand, with a 6.2 point lead over second place Toyota. Ford was the Data Source: Polk.

Top 10 Non Luxury Car Brands in State Market Top 10 Non Luxury Light Truck Brands in State Market April 2014 thru September 2014 April 2014 thru September 2014

Honda 21.1 Ford 14.5

Toyota 14.9 Honda 14.5

Hyundai 11.3 Jeep 13.4

Nissan 11.2 Toyota 12.6

Ford 7.5 Nissan 8.9

Kia 6.6 Chevrolet 6.7

Volkswagen 6.2 GMC 5.3

Chevrolet 6.0 Subaru 4.9

Subaru 5.0 Hyundai 3.6

Mazda 3.4 Ram 3.1

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 Share of non luxury car market (%) Share of non luxury truck market (%)

Top 10 Luxury Car Brands in State Market Top 10 Luxury Light Truck Brands in State Market April 2014 thru September 2014 April 2014 thru September 2014

BMW 23.6 Lexus 16.7

Mercedes 20.5 Mercedes 15.9

Audi 13.4 Acura 15.7

Lexus 12.6 BMW 15.7

Inﬁniti 7.8 Cadillac 7.5

Acura 5.7 Audi 7.0

Cadillac 5.3 Inﬁniti 6.3

Volvo 3.6 Land Rover 6.2

Lincoln 3.0 Lincoln 3.6

Other 1.8 Volvo 3.1

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 Share of luxury car market (%) Share of luxury truck market (%) Covering Third Quarter 2014 Page 7 BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART THREE Honda is Top Selling Brand in New Jersey Market Honda’s share of state market exceeds U.S. by 3.5 points

The graph below provides a comparison of New Jersey and U.S. new retail market share during the first nine months of this year for the top 20 selling brands in the state. Brands are positioned on the graph from top to bottom based on state market share. Honda was the state leader, accounting for 13.4% of the market, well above its 9.9% share in the Nation.

New Jersey and U.S. Market Share - YTD 2014 thru September*

13.4% Honda 9.9%

10.8% Toyota 13.5%

9.0% Ford 12.5%

8.9% Nissan 7.7%

5.9% Hyundai 4.3%

5.7% Jeep 4.5%

5.2% Chevrolet 10.5%

4.0% Subaru 3.7%

3.9% BMW 2.1%

3.8% Mercedes 2.1%

Kia 3.5% 3.8% Honda, BMW, Mercedes, and Hyundai New Jersey market shares were well above U.S. NJ 2.9% Lexus 2.1% U.S. 2.5% Volkswagen 2.2%

2.4% Mazda 2.1%

2.2% GMC 3.0%

2.0% Acura 1.1%

2.0% Audi 1.2%

1.8% Dodge 3.2%

1.6% Inﬁniti 0.8%

1.3% Cadillac 1.1%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% Market Share

*Figures for September, 2014 were estimated. Source: Polk. Page 8 New Jersey Auto Outlook

FORECAST DETERMINANTS Three Primary Factors Impacting New Vehicle Sales Indicators point to continued improvement in state new vehicle market

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index #1 Consumer Sentiment 90 80 Consumer attitudes have moved higher, but still reflect concerns 70

Impact on new vehicle sales: 60 MILDLY POSITIVE 50 Consumer sentiment

40 The consumer sentiment index has remained around 80 for the past year and half, up sharply from 2009. 30 Despite the increase, the index is still far from record- Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 '12 '12 '13 '13 '13 '13 '14 '14 '14 high levels. Source: University of Michigan. Quarters

U.S. Household Net Worth #2 Household Net Worth 90.0

Household net worth exceeds $80 trillion 80.0 in Second Quarter of 2014 70.0 Impact on new vehicle sales: POSITIVE 60.0

50.0

After declining sharply from 2007 to the First Quar- 40.0 ter of 2009, household net worth recovered, and ex- Household net worth (trillions of $'s) ceeded $80 trillion in the Second Quarter of 2014. 30.0 The trend of improving net worth provides a boost to Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 consumer spending. Source: Federal Reserve. Quarters

Monthly Change in State Unemployment Rate (vs. year earlier) #3 0.5 New Jersey Unemployment 0.0 State unemployment rate has declined steadily during the -0.5 past 19 months -1.0 Impact on new vehicle sales: -1.5 POSITIVE -2.0

The graph on the right shows the monthly change in -2.5 the state unemployment rate versus the same month Change in unemployment rate vs. year earlier Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-12 Oct-13 Oct-12 Apr-13 Jun-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Jan-13 Feb-14 Feb-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-12 Nov-13 Mar-14 Nov-12 Mar-12 Mar-13 Dec-13 Dec-12 Sep-13 Sep-12 May-13 May-14 a year earlier. The rate has declined from year earlier May-12 levels in each of the past 19 months. Source: BLS. Months Covering Third Quarter 2014 Page 9

MODEL SCOREBOARD Accord and Civic Lead New Jersey Car Market Rogue and Forester have big market share gains

The two graphs below show market shares in the state car and light truck markets during the first eight months of 2013 and 2014. Includes the top ten selling car and light truck models.

Change in Market Share for Top 10 Selling Cars - YTD 2014 thru August vs. YTD 2013

9.0% Fusion, Altima, and Corolla market shares were up. 8.0% 2013 YTD

2014 YTD 7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0% Market Share

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0% Honda Accord Honda Civic Nissan Altima Toyota Camry Hyundai Hyundai Toyota Corolla Ford Fusion BMW 3-Series Kia Optima Sonata Elantra

Change in Market Share for Top 10 Selling Light Trucks - YTD 2014 thru August vs. YTD 2013

7.0% Market shares for Rogue and Forester were up sharply. (Cherokee was introduced late in 2013.) 2013 YTD 6.0% 2014 YTD

5.0%

4.0%

Market Share 3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0% Honda CR-V Jeep Grand Nissan Rogue Toyota RAV4 Ford Escape Ford F Series Subaru Ford Explorer Jeep Wrangler Jeep Cherokee Cherokee Forester Source: Polk. Page 10 New Jersey Auto Outlook COUNTY SCOREBOARD Majority of County Markets Improve in 2014 Passaic County had largest increase, up 7%

The two graphs on this page provide a Detroit Three Brand Market Share: YTD 2014 thru August summary of New Jersey’s 21 county new retail light vehicle markets. This county- Salem level information provides a valuable Cape May perspective on local market perfor- Cumberland mance, and a barometer to evaluate the Gloucester sales performance of your dealership. Sussex Atlantic The graph below shows the percent Burlington change in new retail light vehicle reg- Camden istrations during the first eight months Warren of 2014 versus the same period a year Ocean earlier. The graph on the right shows Tra- ditional Domestic Brand market share Morris in each county. Monmouth Hunterdon Conclusions: Registrations increased in Passaic 15 of the 21 counties, with the largest Essex increase in Passaic County (up 7%). De- Mercer troit Three Brand market share ranged Union from a high of 51.4% in Salem County Bergen to a low of 22.1% in Hudson County. Somerset Middlesex Data Source: Polk. Hudson 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%

Percent Change in New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations - YTD 2014 thru August vs. YTD 2013

Passaic 7.0% Camden 5.7% Essex 5.0% Union 4.6% Gloucester 3.8% Salem 3.5% Sussex 3.4% Cumberland 3.4% Bergen 3.4% Morris 3.4% Middlesex 3.3% Mercer 3.1% Burlington 2.6% Somerset 2.3% Monmouth 0.4% Hudson -0.6% Cape May -0.8% Atlantic -0.9% Warren -2.3% Ocean -2.4% Hunterdon -4.2% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Covering Third Quarter 2014 Page 11

COUNTY SCOREBOARD Hudson County Posts Biggest Gain During Past Five Years Luxury vehicle market share is highest in Bergen County

The first graph below highlights the long term performance of county light vehicle markets. It shows the percent change in new retail light vehicle registrations during the first eight months of this year, versus the same period in 2009. Biggest increases (greater than 40%), occurred in Hudson, Ocean, Camden, Essex, and Union Counties. The second graph shows luxury vehicle market share by county. Luxury brand market share was highest in Bergen County.

Five Year Percent Change in County New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations YTD 2014 thru August vs. YTD 2009

60.0%

50.2% 48.5% 50.0% 43.1% 41.0% 40.6% 38.2% 37.4% 40.0% 36.6% 36.2% 35.5% 31.4% 31.1% 31.0% 31.0% 30.7% 28.4% 28.2% 30.0% 22.6% 22.4%

20.0% 14.2% 10.2% 10.0% % change in new registrations YTD '14 vs. '09

0.0%

Luxury Vehicle Share of Overall Market YTD 2014 thru August

35.0%

30.0% 28.7% 26.4% 24.4% 24.1% 25.0% 23.3% 20.5% 19.7% 19.3% 19.3% 19.0% 20.0% 18.1%

15.2% 14.9% 14.7% 15.0% 12.8% 12.3%

9.7% 9.5% 9.0%

Luxury vehicle market share 8.1% 10.0% 7.3%

5.0%

0.0% Page 12 New Jersey Auto Outlook

NEW JERSEY MARKET VERSUS U.S. U.S. Has Bigger Gain than New Jersey So Far This Year Detroit 3 market share in state market is well below Nation

New Jersey Market U.S. Market Change in registrations % change in registrations 2.7% 6.5% YTD '14 thru September* vs. YTD '13 Car Market Share Car share of industry retail light vehicle 50.3% 48.4% registrations - YTD '14 thru September* Detroit Three Brand Market Share Domestic brand share of industry retail light vehicle 29.5% 40.8% registrations - YTD '14 thru September* Top selling light vehicle brands and market share - YTD '14 thru September* First Honda 13.4% Toyota 13.5% Second Toyota 10.8% Ford 12.5% Third Ford 9.0% Chevrolet 10.5% Fourth Nissan 8.9% Honda 9.9% Fifth Hyundai 5.9% Nissan 7.7% Sixth Jeep 5.7% Jeep 4.5% Seventh Chevrolet 5.2% Hyundai 4.3% Eighth Subaru 4.0% Kia 3.8% Ninth BMW 3.9% Subaru 3.7% Tenth Mercedes 3.8% Dodge 3.2% *Figures for September 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook Data Source: Polk

New Jersey Auto Outlook

New Jersey Auto Outlook is distributed free of charge to all members of the New Jersey Coalition of Automotive Retail- ers. The publication is sponsored and supported by NJCAR. New Jersey Auto Outlook is published and edited by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent automotive market research firm. Opinions expressed in New Jersey Auto Outlook are solely those of Auto Outlook, Inc., and are not necessarily shared by NJCAR.

New Jersey Coalition of Automotive Retailers 856 River Road Trenton, NJ 08628 609-883-5056 www.njcar.org