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New Jersey Auto Outlook Sponsored By: NJ CAR Covering Third Quarter 2014 Volume 25, Number 4 New Jersey Auto Outlook Sponsored by: NJ CAR FORECAST State New Vehicle Market On Track for 2.9% Gain in 2014 Sixth consecutive annual increase predicted for next year Information overload is hard to avoid these Trucks grab a larger share of state market Honda Accord best-selling car in state mar- days. Here’s our attempt to cut through the Light truck market share increased from ket; CR-V is light truck leader clutter. Below is a concise summary of key 45.8% during the first nine months of 2013 to Honda Civic and Nissan Altima were ranked trends and developments in the New Jersey 49.7% this year. Consumers are clearly mak- second and third behind Accord in the car new vehicle market. ing their preference known for larger vehicles, market, while Jeep Grand Cherokee and Nis- especially crossover SUVs. san Rogue trailed the CR-V. State market posts gain during first three quarters of 2014; increase is below Nation Alternative powertrain vehicle sales are Detroit Three gain ground in 2014, as Ko- State new retail registrations were up 2.7% for down in 2014 rean brands lose share the first nine months of this year (September State sales of hybrid and electric cars and Detroit Three accounted for a larger chunk of figures were estimated) versus a year earlier, trucks fell 6.8% so far this year, while the over- the state market so far this year, with share below the 6.5% uptick in the National market. all market improved. Market share was still increasing from 28.0% during the first nine low, at just 2.3%. months of 2013 to 29.5% in 2014. New vehicle market has small increase in Third Quarter of this year Honda, Toyota, Ford, Nissan, and Hyundai The Third Quarter increase was a slim 0.9%, are leaders in state market as the market struggled to improve on strong Honda was the best selling brand during the 2015 Forecast year-earlier results (see page 2). first three quarters of this year, with a 13.4% share. Toyota’s share was 10.8%. Sixth consecutive annual increase likely in 2015 Jeep, Ram, Subaru, Lincoln, and Audi gain a Up State new retail light vehicle registrations are lot of ground in 2014 predicted to increase 2.0% from 2014 to New retail registrations for each of these five 2% 2015. This year’s annual increase is pegged brands were up more than 10% so far in 2014. at 2.9%. Annual Trend in State Market Market Summary YTD '13 YTD '14 % Chg. Mkt. Share 550,000 thru Sept. thru Sept.* '13 to '14 YTD '14* TOTAL 369,064 378,855 2.7% 500,000 498,000 508,000 450,000 483,954 Car 200,046 190,419 -4.8% 50.3% 400,000 443,900 Light Truck 169,018 188,436 11.5% 49.7% 419,021 350,000 425,770 400,314 Detroit Three 103,506 111,785 8.0% 29.5% New light vehicle registrations 300,000 358,410 European 57,314 55,627 -2.9% 14.7% 250,000 Japanese 171,760 175,819 2.4% 46.4% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Korean 36,484 35,624 -2.4% 9.4% Forecast Forecast Detroit Three consists of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, and Chrysler. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the state *Figures for September, 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook. from 2008 thru 2013, and Auto Outlook’s projections for all of 2014 and 2015. Historical data source: Polk. Historical figures were revised and will differ slightly from those presented in previous issues. Source: Polk. Page 2 New Jersey Auto Outlook MARKET TRACKER: QUARTERLY RESULTS State Market Increased 0.9% in 3rd Quarter 2014 vs. 7.1% in U.S. QUARTERLY TREND QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE Percent Change in New Vehicle Market Five Years of Third Quarter Results State and U.S. in State Market 140000 10.0% The state market improved at a slower pace than the U.S. in the 9.0% 3rd Quarter of 2014. 120000 N.J. 8.0% U.S. 100000 7.0% 6.0% 80000 5.0% The market was up by more than 60000 26,000 units in the Third Quarter 4.0% of 2014 vs. 2010. % change versus year earlier 3.0% 40000 New retail light vehicle registrations 2.0% 20000 1.0% 0.0% 0 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14* Q3 '10 Q3 '11 Q3 '12 Q3 '13 Q3 '14* N.J. 1.1% 2.0% 5.1% 0.9% Regs. 106319 104699 110120 132036 133176 U.S. 4.9% 4.3% 7.8% 7.1% Third Quarter registrations during past five years * Figures for Third Quarter 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook based * Figures for Third Quarter 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook on data for July and August. based on data for July and August. Data Source: Polk. Data Source: Polk. New Jersey Auto Outlook Covering Third Quarter 2014 Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Phone: 800-206-0102 EMail: [email protected] Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz Reproduction, including photocopying of this publication in whole or in part, is prohibited without the express permission of Auto Outlook, Inc. Any material quoted must be attributed to New Jersey Auto Outlook, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of NJCar, and must also include the state- ment: “Data Source: Polk.” Unforeseen events may affect the forecast projections presented. Consequently, Auto Outlook, Inc. is not responsible for management decisions based on the content of New Jersey Auto Outlook. Covering Third Quarter 2014 Page 3 MARKET TRACKER: BRAND MARKET SHARE MARKET TRACKER: HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES Detroit 3 Share Improves Hybrid/Electric Share Slips Change in State Market Share Quarterly Alternative Powertrain Market Share YTD 2014 thru September* vs. YTD 2013 (includes hybrid and electric vehicles) 3.0% Detroit Three 1.5 2.5% Japanese -0.1 2.0% 1.5% Korean -0.5 Detroit 3 share Trendline 1.0% increased 1.5 Alternative powertrain market share has trended points. European -0.8 0.5% higher over the past three years, but was down slightly in the Third Quarter of this year. 0.0% -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Change in market share '11 '12 '12 '12 '12 '13 '13 '13 '13 '14 '14 '14* The graph above shows the change in year-to-date market share The graph above shows hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle quarterly market share in the for four primary brand segments. *Figures for September, 2014 state. The line shows market share trend over the past 12 quarters. *Third Quarter 2014 in- were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data Source: Polk. cludes July and August. Source: Polk. MARKET TRACKER: SEGMENTS Compact SUV Segment Leads State Market New Jersey Segment Market Share Review Market Share Market Share Change in share Best selling model Segment YTD ‘13 thru August YTD ‘14 thru August YTD ‘13 to ‘14 in segment Compact SUV 15.8 19.2 3.4 Honda CR-V Standard Mid Size Car 18.8 17.7 -1.1 Honda Accord Sub Compact Car 17.4 15.2 -2.2 Honda Civic Mid Size SUV 3 Rows 7.9 7.6 -0.3 Ford Explorer Near Luxury Car 7.1 6.6 -0.5 BMW 3-Series Mid Size Luxury SUV 5.1 5.4 0.3 Lexus RX Luxury and Sports Cars 4.5 4.4 -0.1 Mercedes E-Class Mid Size SUV 2 Rows 4.1 4.4 0.3 Jeep Grand Cherokee Full Size Pickup 3.9 4.2 0.3 Ford F Series Mini Van 3.4 3.1 -0.3 Honda Odyssey Compact Luxury SUV 2.4 2.6 0.2 Acura RDX Entry Car 2.7 2.4 -0.3 Kia Soul Large Mid Size Car 2.0 2.0 0.0 Nissan Maxima Entry Luxury Car 0.8 1.2 0.4 Mercedes CLA-Class Full Size Van 1.0 1.0 0.0 Ford E-Series Full Size SUV 0.7 0.9 0.2 GMC Yukon Sport Compact Car 1.1 0.9 -0.2 Chevrolet Camaro Compact Pickup 0.9 0.8 -0.1 Toyota Tacoma Full Size Luxury SUV 0.5 0.5 0.0 Cadillac Escalade The table above shows New Jersey market share for 19 vehicle segments during the first eight months of 2013 and 2014, and the change in market share over the period. The best selling model in each segment is also shown. Segments are ranked from top to bottom based on 2014 share. Most popular segment in the state is Compact SUV, which also had the largest gain. Data Source: Polk. Page 4 New Jersey Auto Outlook Brand Registrations Report New Jersey New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations Third Quarter* YTD thru September Registrations Market Share (%) Registrations Market Share (%) 3Q 2013 3Q 2014 % change 3Q 2013 3Q 2014 Change YTD '13 YTD '14* % change YTD '13 YTD '14* Change TOTAL 132,036 133,176 0.9 369,064 378,855 2.7 Cars 70,763 67,705 -4.3 53.6 50.8 -2.8 200,046 190,419 -4.8 54.2 50.3 -3.9 Light Trucks 61,273 65,471 6.9 46.4 49.2 2.8 169,018 188,436 11.5 45.8 49.7 3.9 Domestic Brands 36,663 38,242 4.3 27.8 28.7 0.9 103,506 111,785 8.0 28.0 29.5 1.5 European Brands 19,750 18,903 -4.3 15.0 14.2 -0.8 57,314 55,627 -2.9 15.5 14.7 -0.8 Japanese Brands 62,994 63,553 0.9 47.7 47.7 0.0 171,760 175,819 2.4 46.5 46.4 -0.1 Korean Brands 12,629 12,478 -1.2 9.6 9.4 -0.2 36,484 35,624 -2.4 9.9 9.4 -0.5 Acura 2,931 2,624 -10.5 2.2 2.0 -0.2 8,215 7,647 -6.9 2.2 2.0 -0.2 Audi 2,338 2,515 7.6 1.8 1.9 0.1 6,823 7,566 10.9 1.8 2.0 0.2 BMW 5,097 5,004 -1.8 3.9 3.8 -0.1 14,483 14,943 3.2 3.9 3.9 0.0 Buick 1,766 1,670 -5.4 1.3 1.3 0.0 4,881 4,722 -3.3 1.3 1.2 -0.1 Cadillac 1,948 1,693 -13.1 1.5 1.3 -0.2 5,289 5,002 -5.4 1.4 1.3 -0.1 Chevrolet 6,909 6,786 -1.8 5.2 5.1 -0.1 19,727 19,628 -0.5 5.3 5.2 -0.1 Chrysler 1,518 1,339 -11.8 1.1 1.0 -0.1 4,040 3,671 -9.1 1.1 1.0 -0.1 Dodge 2,353 2,170 -7.8 1.8 1.6 -0.2 6,816 6,795 -0.3 1.8 1.8 0.0 FIAT 290 211 -27.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 675 709 5.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 Ford 11,468 11,358 -1.0 8.7 8.5 -0.2 34,030 34,253 0.7 9.2 9.0 -0.2 GMC 2,652 3,031 14.3 2.0 2.3 0.3 7,729 8,496 9.9 2.1 2.2 0.1 Honda 19,002 18,751 -1.3 14.4 14.1 -0.3 53,141 50,918 -4.2 14.4 13.4 -1.0 Hyundai 8,205 7,772 -5.3 6.2 5.8 -0.4 24,100 22,369 -7.2 6.5 5.9 -0.6 Infiniti 2,076 1,772 -14.6 1.6 1.3 -0.3 5,625 5,877 4.5 1.5 1.6 0.1 Jaguar 270 157 -41.9 0.2 0.1 -0.1 670 490 -26.9 0.2 0.1 -0.1 Jeep 5,598 7,708 37.7 4.2 5.8 1.6 14,722 21,563 46.5 4.0 5.7 1.7 Kia
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