Covering Fourth Quarter 2018 Volume 19, Number 1 San Diego Auto Outlook

Comprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market

FORECAST New Vehicle Sales Should Remain Strong in 2019

Below is a summary of eight key trends and Alternative powertrain market improves Non Luxury SUVs account for 32% of market developments in the San Diego County new County registrations of hybrid and electric cars Market share for Non Luxury SUVs increased vehicle market. and increased 30% during the first 11 to 32% during the first eleven months of last months of 2018, while the overall market de- year. Small Car market share has fallen by County new retail light vehicle registrations clined the entire year. more than eight points during the past five exceeded 150,000 units in 2018 years. The new vehicle market declined slightly last , , Ford, Nissan, and Chevrolet year, but sales remained at elevated levels. are leaders in county market 2018 marked the fifth consecutive year that Toyota was the best selling brand last year, Percent Change in County new registrations exceeded 145,000 units, with a 17.6% share. Honda’s county share was Light and Car Registrations which is a lofty total for the county market. 12.2%, well above its 10.0% share in the U.S. 2018* vs. 2017

New vehicle sales likely to soften in 2019 Tesla, Alfa Romeo, Volvo, Land Rover, and Light Trucks (Pickups, SUVs, and ) There are a few signs pointing to a market Subaru posted gains slowdown. GDP growth appears to be easing New retail registrations for each of these five UP while there are increasing concerns about brands were up more than 5% from 2017 to 2.0% financial market stability and the prospects 2018. for global growth. But the strong labor market combined with a steady stream of impressive Honda Civic best-selling car in county mar- Passenger Cars new products, should limit declines over the ket; Toyota Tacoma is light truck leader next 18 months. Tesla Model 3 and Toyota Camry were ranked DOWN second and third behind Civic in the car 11.4% Trucks grab a larger share of county market market, while Ford F-Series and Toyota RAV4 Light truck market share increased from trailed the Tacoma. 38.3% in 2012 to 57.7% in 2018. Source: IHS. *Dec. 18 estimated.

Annual Trend in County Market Market Summary

180,000 2017 2018* % Chg. Mkt. Share 160,000 Annual Annual '17 to '18 2018* 140,000 161240 162239 157070 146844 150572 TOTAL 157,070 150,572 -4.1% 120,000 139287 146250 100,000 Car 71,891 63,709 -11.4% 42.3% 80,000 Light Truck 85,179 86,863 2.0% 57.7% 60,000 40,000 Domestic 41,378 42,586 2.9% 28.3% 20,000 European 23,918 22,571 -5.6% 15.0% 0 New light vehicle registrations Japanese 79,480 73,792 -7.2% 49.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019 Forecast Korean 12,294 11,623 -5.5% 7.7%

Historical Data Source: IHS. Source: IHS.

The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the county from Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, FCA (excluding Alfa and FIAT), and 2013 thru 2018 and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2019. Tesla. Historical figures were revised by IHS and will differ slightly from those shown in previous releases. *Figures for Dec. ‘18 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Page 2 San Diego Auto Outlook

MARKET TRACKER: QUARTERLY RESULTS County Market Had Small Decline in Fourth Quarter ‘18

QUARTERLY TREND QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE Percent Change in County and U.S. New Vehicle Market 4Q 2018 Registrations Versus Average for Previous Five Years

10.0%

7.5% The county market was off 2.8% in 4Q ‘18. County registrations were just below the average for U.S. was down less than 1%. the previous five years in the Fourth Quarter of ‘18. 5.0%

2.5%

0.0% 4Q '18* 38,136 -2.5%

-5.0% % change versus year earlier -7.5% 4Q avg. 38,594 ('13 to '17) -10.0% Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18* County -6.6% -2.7% -4.5% -2.8% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 U.S. -1.3% 0.4% -1.4% -0.8% Quarterly new retail light vehicle registrations

* Figures for December of 2018 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: IHS. * Figures for December of 2018 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: IHS.

MARKET TRACKER: COUNTY MARKET VERSUS U.S. County Car Share Higher Than U.S. San Diego Auto Outlook County Market U.S. Market Covering Fourth Quarter 2018 Percent change in registrations -4.1% -0.8% 2018* vs. 2017 Published by: Passenger car market share Auto Outlook, Inc. 42.3% 30.8% 2018* PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Domestic brand market share 28.3% 42.0% Phone: 800-206-0102 2018* EMail: [email protected] Top 10 brands and market share Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz 2018* First Toyota 17.6% Toyota 13.4% Reproduction, including photocopying of this publication Second Honda 12.2% Ford 11.6% in whole or in part, is prohibited without the express per- Third Ford 9.2% Chevrolet 11.0% mission of Auto Outlook, Inc. Any material quoted must be attributed to San Diego Auto Outlook, published by Auto Fourth Nissan 6.1% Honda 10.0% Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the New Car Dealers Association Fifth Chevrolet 6.1% Nissan 6.4% San Diego County, and must also include the statement: Sixth Subaru 4.4% Jeep 6.1% “Data Source: IHS Markit.” Unforeseen events may affect Seventh Kia 4.2% Subaru 4.4% the forecast projections. Consequently, Auto Outlook is not Eighth Tesla 4.2% Hyundai 3.7% responsible for management decisions based on the con- Ninth Jeep 3.5% Kia 3.4% tent of San Diego Auto Outlook Tenth Hyundai 3.4% GMC 3.3% *December 2018 figures estimated by Auto Outlook Source: IHS Copyright Auto Outlook, Inc., January 2019 Covering Fourth Quarter 2018 Page 3

MARKET TRACKER: HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES Electric Vehicle Market Share Heads Higher in 4Q ‘18

Quarterly Alternative Powertrain Market Share Hybrid/electric vehicle (includes hybrid and electric vehicles) market share in Q4 ‘18:

8.0% 14.7% 7.0% 6.0% New Retail Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Registrations 5.0% Top 10 Selling Models in County - YTD '18 thru November 4.0% Rank Model Regs. 1 Tesla Model 3 3855 3.0% Market Share 2 Toyota Prius 2369 2.0% 3 Kia Niro 881 1.0% 4 Tesla Model S 651 0.0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 5 Ford Fusion 622 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18* 6 Chevrolet Bolt 588 7 Chevrolet Volt 553 Hybrid Plug In Hybrid Electric 8 Toyota Camry 552 The graph above shows hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle quarterly market share in the 9 Tesla Model X 540 county. *Fourth Quarter 2018 includes October and November. Source: IHS. 10 Honda Clarity 525

MARKET TRACKER: THREE YEAR CHANGE IN SEGMENT SHARES Non Luxury SUV Market Share Increases to 32%

Segment Market Shares in County Segment Market Shares in County YTD 2015 thru November YTD 2018 thru November

Non Luxury Md Non Luxury Md Size & Large Cars, Size & Large Cars, 15% Non Luxury SUVs, 10% Non Luxury SUVs, 24% 32% Luxury SUVs, 10%

Luxury SUVs, 7% Non Luxury SUV Non Luxury SUV Market Share, YTD ‘15: Luxury & Sports Market Share, YTD ‘18: Cars, 11% Luxury & Sports Cars, 11% 24% 32%

Pickups and Vans, Small Cars, 30% Pickups and Vans, 13% 15%

Small Cars, 22%

The two graphs above show market shares for primary segments during the first 11 months of 2015 and 2018.

At Auto Outlook, we strive to provide sound and accurate analyses and forecasts based upon the data available to us. However, our forecasts are derived from third-party data and contain a number of assumptions made by Auto Outlook and its management, including, without limitation, the accuracy of the data compiled. As a result, Auto Outlook can make no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the data we provide or the forecasts or projections that we make based upon such data. Auto Outlook expressly disclaims any such warranties, and undue reliance should not be placed on any such data, forecasts, projections, or predictions. Auto Outlook undertakes no obligation to update or revise any predictions or forecasts, whether as a result of any new data, the occurrence of future events, or otherwise. Page 4 San Diego Auto Outlook

BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART ONE Toyota, Tesla, and Honda Strong Performers in County Market

The graph below provides an indicator of get” for the county market. Target registrations actual registrations exceeding calculated tar- brands that are popular in San Diego County are subtracted from actual registrations to de- gets by large margins. For instance, Toyota reg- (relative to the National standard), and those rive the measurement of sales performance. istrations exceeded the target by 6,307 units. that are not. Here’s how it works: For the top 30 selling brands, each brand’s share of the Brands at the top of the graph (i.e., Toyota, Tes- U.S. market is multiplied by retail registrations la, Honda, BMW, Mazda, Mercedes, and Lexus) in the county during 2018. This yields a “tar- are relatively strong sellers in the county, with

San Diego County Retail Market Performance based on registrations for 2018* Actual registrations minus target (county industry registrations times U.S. market share)

6307 Toyota 4368 Tesla 3253 Honda 2161 BMW 1837 Mazda 1624 Mercedes 1562 Lexus 1119 Kia TOP FIVE PERFORMING BRANDS 815 Audi 600 Volkswagen 1. Toyota 511 Land Rover 2. Tesla 425 Porsche 3. Honda 287 MINI 4. BMW 221 Infiniti 5. Mazda 206 Volvo 168 Acura -76 Subaru -299 Mitsubishi -380 Hyundai -413 Lincoln -419 Nissan -521 Cadillac -535 Chrysler -1453 Dodge -1484 Buick -2654 Ram -3176 GMC -3586 Ford -3848 Jeep -7326 Chevrolet -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000

Actual registrations minus target (county industry registrations times U.S. market share)

*Figures for December, 2018 were estimated. Source for registration data: IHS. Covering Fourth Quarter 2018 Page 5

BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART TWO Subaru and Jeep Post Big Gains During Past 5 Years

The graphs below show new retail light vehicle registrations in 2013 and 2018 for the top 12 selling brands in the county. Viewing the 12 graphs on the same page provides a clear-cut way to identify brands that have had big gains during the past five years versus those that have been flat or lost ground.

New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations for Top 12 Selling Brands in County - 2013 and 2018*

Toyota Registrations Honda Registrations Ford Registrations

30000 20000 20000 25000 27,292 15000 18,363 15000 20000 26,457 15,913 15,862 15000 10000 10000 13,879 10000 5 year % chg: Up 15% 5 year % chg: Down 13% 5 year % chg: Down 3% 5000 5000 5000 0 0 0 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018

Nissan Registrations Chevrolet Registrations Subaru Registrations

12000 10000 7000 5 year % chg: Up 83% 6000 10000 8000 11,162 9,181 6,603 8000 5000 9,247 6000 4000 6000 6,926 4000 3000 3,610 4000 5 year % chg: Down 17% 2000 2000 5 year % chg: Up 33% 2000 1000 0 0 0 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018

Kia Registrations Jeep Registrations Hyundai Registrations

7000 6000 5 year % chg: Up 39% 6000 6000 5000 5000 6,299 5,457 5000 4000 5,264 4000 5,191 4000 5,431 3000 3000 3000 3,775 5 year % chg: Down 5% 2000 5 year % chg: Up 16% 2000 2000 1000 1000 1000 0 0 0 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018

BMW Registrations Mercedes Registrations Mazda Registrations

6000 6000 5000

5000 5000 4000 5,448 4,654 4000 5,130 4000 4,824 3000 3,962 3000 3000 4,139 2000 2000 2000 5 year % chg: Down 6% 5 year % chg: Up 17% 1000 1000 1000 5 year % chg: Up 17% 0 0 0 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018

*Figures for December, 2018 were estimated. Source: IHS. Page 6 San Diego Auto Outlook

MODEL RANKINGS Honda Civic is Best Selling Model in County Market

The table below shows the top five selling models during the BEST SELLERS IN PRIMARY SEGMENTS first 11 months of 2018 in 20 Compact Car: Honda Civic Full Size Pickup: Ford F-Series segments. In addition to unit Mid Size Car: Toyota Camry Compact SUV: Toyota RAV4 registrations, it also shows each model’s market share in its re- Near Luxury Car: Tesla Model 3 Mid Size SUV: Toyota Highlander spective segment. Luxury Car: Tesla Model S Luxury Mid Size SUV: Lexus RX

Top Selling Models in Each Segment - New Light Vehicle Registrations (YTD '18 thru November) Cars Subcompact Compact Sports/Pony Cars Mid Size Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Kia Soul 881 19.5 Honda Civic 5404 23.6 Ford Mustang 716 34.3 Toyota Camry 3608 28.5 Chevrolet Bolt 588 13.0 Toyota Corolla 2953 12.9 Dodge Challenger 457 21.9 Honda Accord 3214 25.4 Honda Fit 555 12.3 Toyota Prius 2369 10.4 Chevrolet Camaro 390 18.7 Ford Fusion 1419 11.2 Ford Fiesta 471 10.4 Nissan Sentra 1975 8.6 Mazda MX5 140 6.7 Kia Optima 1091 8.6 Toyota Yaris 413 9.2 1386 6.1 129 6.2 Nissan Altima 1006 7.9 Large Entry Luxury Near Luxury Luxury and High End Sports Cars Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Dodge Charger 381 38.3 Audi A3 395 29.1 Tesla Model 3 3855 39.3 Tesla Model S 651 17.0 Toyota Avalon 277 27.9 Mercedes CLA-Class 331 24.4 BMW 3-Series 921 9.4 BMW 5-Series 636 16.6 Nissan Maxima 111 11.2 BMW I3 290 21.3 Mercedes C-Class 818 8.3 Mercedes E-Class 551 14.4 Chrysler 300 87 8.8 BMW 2-Series 179 13.2 Lexus ES 686 7.0 Mercedes S-Class 201 5.2 Chevrolet Impala 59 5.9 Acura ILX 160 11.8 Lexus IS 503 5.1 Porsche 911 160 4.2 Light Trucks Compact/Mid Size Pickup Full Size Pickup Mini Large Van Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Toyota Tacoma 4581 71.6 Ford F Series 3983 41.2 Honda Odyssey 1241 47.7 Van 564 30.8 Chevrolet Colorado 906 14.2 Chevrolet Silverado 2043 21.1 Toyota Sienna 622 23.9 Mercedes Sprinter 449 24.5 Nissan Frontier /Xe 431 6.7 Ram Pickup 1848 19.1 Chrysler Pacifica 550 21.1 Nissan NV 234 12.8 GMC Canyon 254 4.0 Toyota Tundra 1098 11.3 Kia Sedona 130 5.0 Ram Promaster 231 12.6 Honda Ridgeline 226 3.5 GMC Sierra 517 5.3 Dodge Caravan 58 2.2 Chevrolet Express 203 11.1 Subcompact SUV Compact SUV Mid Size SUV Large SUV Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Kia Niro 881 17.2 Toyota RAV4 3356 14.8 Toyota Highlander 1835 12.6 Chevrolet Tahoe 391 27.5 Toyota C-HR 861 16.8 Honda CR-V 3147 13.9 Ford Explorer 1690 11.6 Ford Expedition 203 14.3 Honda HR-V 839 16.4 Nissan Rogue 2537 11.2 Subaru Outback 1641 11.3 GMC Yukon 185 13.0 Nissan Kicks 443 8.7 Mazda CX-5 2323 10.2 Toyota 4 Runner 1531 10.6 Ford Flex 182 12.8 417 8.2 Jeep Wrangler 1702 7.5 Jeep Grand Cherokee 1342 9.3 Chevrolet Suburban 180 12.6 Luxury Subcompact SUV Luxury Compact SUV Luxury Mid Size SUV Luxury Large SUV Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share BMW X1 495 38.0 Lexus NX 960 16.3 Lexus RX 1384 23.6 Land Rover Range Rover 259 28.5 Mercedes GLA-Class 251 19.2 Mercedes GLC-Class 947 16.1 BMW X5 553 9.4 Cadillac Escalade 226 24.9 Audi Q3 193 14.8 Audi Q5 761 12.9 Tesla Model X 540 9.2 Mercedes GLS-Class 158 17.4 BMW X2 130 10.0 Acura RDX 679 11.5 Acura MDX 493 8.4 Lincoln Navigator 87 9.6 Volvo XC40 121 9.3 BMW X3 608 10.3 Mercedes GLE-Class 420 7.2 Infiniti QX80 64 7.0

Source: IHS. Covering Fourth Quarter 2018 Page 7

LONG TERM TRENDS Registrations Likely to Exceed 146K for 6th Straight Year in ‘19

The two graphs below provide a long term perspective of trends in the San Diego County new retail light vehicle market. The first graph shows historical registrations from 2007 thru 2018, along with Auto Outlook’s forecast for 2019. The second graph shows light truck share of the overall light vehicle market.

County New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations - 2007 thru 2018*, 2019 Forecast

180,000

160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000 County mar- ket improved 80,000 94% between ‘09 and ‘18. 60,000 Small decline is predicted in New retail light vehicle registrations 40,000 ‘19, with annual total remaining 20,000 above 146,000 units 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019 Proj. Regs. 137,157 102,624 77,685 87,573 99,199 126,166 139,287 146,844 161,240 162,239 157,070 150,572 146250

Years

Historical Data Source: IHS. * December 2018 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook.

County New Retail Light Truck Market Share - 2007 thru 2018*

70.0%

60.0%

50.0%

40.0% Light truck 30.0% market share in- creased steadi- 20.0% Light truck market share ly from 38.3% in 2012 to 57.7% 10.0% last year. 0.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* Truck share 43.0% 40.4% 38.7% 41.1% 40.8% 38.3% 39.3% 40.8% 44.4% 49.0% 54.2% 57.7% Years

Source: IHS. * December 2018 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook. Page 8 San Diego Auto Outlook

Brand Registrations Report San Diego County New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations Fourth Quarter* Annual Totals Registrations Market Share (%) Registrations Market Share (%) 4Q '17 4Q '18 % change 4Q '17 4Q '18 Change 2017 2018* % change 2017 2018* Change TOTAL 39,217 38,136 -2.8 157,070 150,572 -4.1 Cars 17,160 15,487 -9.7 43.8 40.6 -3.2 71,891 63,709 -11.4 45.8 42.3 -3.5 Light Trucks 22,057 22,649 2.7 56.2 59.4 3.2 85,179 86,863 2.0 54.2 57.7 3.5 Domestic Brands 10,282 11,535 12.2 26.2 30.2 4.0 41,378 42,586 2.9 26.3 28.3 2.0 European Brands 6,457 5,824 -9.8 16.5 15.3 -1.2 23,918 22,571 -5.6 15.2 15.0 -0.2 Japanese Brands 19,464 18,020 -7.4 49.6 47.3 -2.3 79,480 73,792 -7.2 50.6 49.0 -1.6 Korean Brands 3,014 2,757 -8.5 7.7 7.2 -0.5 12,294 11,623 -5.5 7.8 7.7 -0.1 Acura 436 473 8.5 1.1 1.2 0.1 1,824 1,778 -2.5 1.2 1.2 0.0 Alfa Romeo 93 115 23.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 217 454 109.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 Audi 893 735 -17.7 2.3 1.9 -0.4 3,191 2,910 -8.8 2.0 1.9 -0.1 BMW 1,461 1,338 -8.4 3.7 3.5 -0.2 5,110 5,130 0.4 3.3 3.4 0.1 Buick 147 121 -17.7 0.4 0.3 -0.1 579 465 -19.7 0.4 0.3 -0.1 Cadillac 224 221 -1.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 852 780 -8.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 Chevrolet 2,732 2,447 -10.4 7.0 6.4 -0.6 10,205 9,181 -10.0 6.5 6.1 -0.4 Chrysler 225 134 -40.4 0.6 0.4 -0.2 752 688 -8.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 Dodge 348 339 -2.6 0.9 0.9 0.0 1,638 1,341 -18.1 1.0 0.9 -0.1 FIAT 100 66 -34.0 0.3 0.2 -0.1 713 264 -63.0 0.5 0.2 -0.3 Ford 3,663 3,187 -13.0 9.3 8.4 -0.9 15,640 13,879 -11.3 10.0 9.2 -0.8 Genesis 58 13 -77.6 0.1 0.0 -0.1 214 133 -37.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 GMC 610 541 -11.3 1.6 1.4 -0.2 2,091 1,837 -12.1 1.3 1.2 -0.1 Honda 4,842 4,315 -10.9 12.3 11.3 -1.0 19,668 18,363 -6.6 12.5 12.2 -0.3 Hyundai 1,303 1,291 -0.9 3.3 3.4 0.1 5,499 5,191 -5.6 3.5 3.4 -0.1 Infiniti 416 454 9.1 1.1 1.2 0.1 1,629 1,452 -10.9 1.0 1.0 0.0 Jaguar 161 113 -29.8 0.4 0.3 -0.1 559 384 -31.3 0.4 0.3 -0.1 Jeep 1,186 1,228 3.5 3.0 3.2 0.2 5,281 5,264 -0.3 3.4 3.5 0.1 Kia 1,653 1,453 -12.1 4.2 3.8 -0.4 6,581 6,299 -4.3 4.2 4.2 0.0 Land Rover 332 358 7.8 0.8 0.9 0.1 1,290 1,380 7.0 0.8 0.9 0.1 Lexus 1,387 1,294 -6.7 3.5 3.4 -0.1 5,001 4,541 -9.2 3.2 3.0 -0.2 Lincoln 140 133 -5.0 0.4 0.3 -0.1 626 557 -11.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 Maserati 44 49 11.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 222 177 -20.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 Mazda 1,211 1,017 -16.0 3.1 2.7 -0.4 5,195 4,654 -10.4 3.3 3.1 -0.2 Mercedes 1,469 1,264 -14.0 3.7 3.3 -0.4 5,248 4,824 -8.1 3.3 3.2 -0.1 MINI 175 153 -12.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 783 695 -11.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 Mitsubishi 219 142 -35.2 0.6 0.4 -0.2 744 691 -7.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 Nissan 2,497 2,346 -6.0 6.4 6.2 -0.2 11,228 9,247 -17.6 7.1 6.1 -1.0 Other 69 116 68.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 283 326 15.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 Porsche 273 230 -15.8 0.7 0.6 -0.1 997 968 -2.9 0.6 0.6 0.0 Ram 595 648 8.9 1.5 1.7 0.2 2,303 2,315 0.5 1.5 1.5 0.0 Subaru 1,545 1,603 3.8 3.9 4.2 0.3 6,252 6,603 5.6 4.0 4.4 0.4 Tesla 401 2,529 530.7 1.0 6.6 5.6 1,378 6,257 354.1 0.9 4.2 3.3 Toyota 6,910 6,372 -7.8 17.6 16.7 -0.9 27,924 26,457 -5.3 17.8 17.6 -0.2 Volkswagen 1,083 1,014 -6.4 2.8 2.7 -0.1 4,403 3,948 -10.3 2.8 2.6 -0.2 Volvo 316 284 -10.1 0.8 0.7 -0.1 950 1,139 19.9 0.6 0.8 0.2 *December 2018 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: IHS

The table above shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in San Diego County. Figures are shown for the Fourth Quarters of 2017 and 2018, and annual totals. The top ten ranked brands in each category are shaded yellow. Covering Fourth Quarter 2018 Page 9

Key Trends in San Diego County Retail Used Light Vehicle Registrations San Diego County YTD thru November Used Vehicle Market Registrations % Change Market Share YTD '17 YTD '18 '17 TO '18 YTD '17 YTD '18 Market declines slightly in 2018 TOTAL 296,113 292,797 -1.1% Used vehicle registrations in San Diego Cars 173,041 168,477 -2.6% 58.4% 57.5% Light Trucks 123,072 124,320 1.0% 41.6% 42.5% County slipped 1.1% during the first 11 months of 2018 versus year earlier. Detroit Three 100,907 95,839 -5.0% 34.1% 32.7% European 46,009 47,325 2.9% 15.5% 16.2% Japanese 132,606 132,645 0.0% 44.8% 45.3% Used vehicle market out-performs new Korean 16,591 16,988 2.4% 5.6% 5.8%

As shown on the graph below, the gap be- Source: IHS . tween the size of the new and used vehicle markets (vehicles six year old or newer) has narrowed during the past year. Registra- tions for six year old or newer used vehicles increased 3% in the first 11 months of ‘18 Percent Change in County Retail Used Registrations versus a year earlier, while the new vehicle by Vehicle Age, YTD ‘18 thru November vs. YTD ‘17 market declined. 50.0%

Civic is top seller 25.0% 18.6% Honda Civic was the best seller in the six 12.2% 11.4% year old or newer market, followed by Toyota 7.0% Corolla, Toyota Camry, Nissan Sentra, and 0.0% Toyota Prius. -4.2% -7.1% -6.4% -25.0% Three Year old dominate market 7 yrs. old 6 yrs. old 5 yrs. old 4 yrs. old 3 yrs. old 2 yrs. old 1 yr. or Used registrations of 2015 model year Toy- newer otas exceeded 5,500 units during the first Source: IHS . 11 months of ‘18 (see page 10).

San Diego County New and Used Retail Registrations - Three Month Moving Average (used only includes vehicles 6 years old or newer)

16000 14000 12000 10000

8000 Used 6000 New 4000 2000 0

Source: IHS . Page 10 San Diego Auto Outlook

BRAND REGISTRATIONS 2015 Model Year Toyota Registrations Lead Used Vehicle Market Brand Used Registrations by Model Year - YTD 2018 thru November

6000

Toyota, 5583 3 year-old Toyota registrations (2015 model year) were the top selling mod- el year/brand combination. 5000

This chart shows used vehicle registrations by brand, ranked for specific model years. The chart includes the top ten sell- ing brands for five year old or newer vehicles during the 4000 first 11 months of 2018. The position of some brands were moved slightly to avoid overlapping labels. Nissan, 3689

Honda, 3313 Toyota, 3300 Toyota, 3260

3000 Nissan, 2952 Nissan, 2841 Ford, 2750 BMW, 2632

Used vehicle registrations Toyota, 2306 Ford, 2320 Ford, 2212 Toyota, 2074 2000 Ford, 2066 Honda, 1957 Chevrolet, 1818 Volkswagen, 1786 Hyundai, 1783 Ford, 1733 Nissan, 1673 Chevrolet, 1678 Dodge, 1664 Chevrolet, 1465 Nissan, 1352 BMW, 1306 Chevrolet, 1163 Hyundai, 1292 Honda, 1036 Hyundai, 1219 Honda, 1247 Honda, 1149 Kia, 1214 Kia, 1070 Kia, 1117 Hyundai, 1033 1000 Dodge, 1064 Chevrolet, 957 BMW, 851 Dodge, 859 Volkswagen, 764 Volkswagen, 845 Volkswagen, 751 Dodge, 627 Dodge, 721 BMW, 633 Kia, 600 Kia, 666 Volkswagen, 437 BMW, 563 Hyundai, 553

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 and Newer Model Years Source: IHS.

TOP SELLING USED VEHICLES Honda Civic is the Best Seller in San Diego County Used Market

Top 15 Selling Models in County Used Vehicle Market (vehicles 6 years old or newer), YTD ‘18 thru November

4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500

Used registrations 1,000 500 0

Source: IHS.