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San Diego Auto Outlook Covering Fourth Quarter 2018 Volume 19, Number 1 San Diego Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market FORECAST New Vehicle Sales Should Remain Strong in 2019 Below is a summary of eight key trends and Alternative powertrain market improves Non Luxury SUVs account for 32% of market developments in the San Diego County new County registrations of hybrid and electric cars Market share for Non Luxury SUVs increased vehicle market. and trucks increased 30% during the first 11 to 32% during the first eleven months of last months of 2018, while the overall market de- year. Small Car market share has fallen by County new retail light vehicle registrations clined the entire year. more than eight points during the past five exceeded 150,000 units in 2018 years. The new vehicle market declined slightly last Toyota, Honda, Ford, Nissan, and Chevrolet year, but sales remained at elevated levels. are leaders in county market 2018 marked the fifth consecutive year that Toyota was the best selling brand last year, Percent Change in County new registrations exceeded 145,000 units, with a 17.6% share. Honda’s county share was Light Truck and Car Registrations which is a lofty total for the county market. 12.2%, well above its 10.0% share in the U.S. 2018* vs. 2017 New vehicle sales likely to soften in 2019 Tesla, Alfa Romeo, Volvo, Land Rover, and Light Trucks (Pickups, SUVs, and Vans) There are a few signs pointing to a market Subaru posted gains slowdown. GDP growth appears to be easing New retail registrations for each of these five UP while there are increasing concerns about brands were up more than 5% from 2017 to 2.0% financial market stability and the prospects 2018. for global growth. But the strong labor market combined with a steady stream of impressive Honda Civic best-selling car in county mar- Passenger Cars new products, should limit declines over the ket; Toyota Tacoma is light truck leader next 18 months. Tesla Model 3 and Toyota Camry were ranked DOWN second and third behind Civic in the car 11.4% Trucks grab a larger share of county market market, while Ford F-Series and Toyota RAV4 Light truck market share increased from trailed the Tacoma. 38.3% in 2012 to 57.7% in 2018. Source: IHS. *Dec. 18 estimated. Annual Trend in County Market Market Summary 180,000 2017 2018* % Chg. Mkt. Share 160,000 Annual Annual '17 to '18 2018* 140,000 161240 162239 157070 146844 150572 TOTAL 157,070 150,572 -4.1% 120,000 139287 146250 100,000 Car 71,891 63,709 -11.4% 42.3% 80,000 Light Truck 85,179 86,863 2.0% 57.7% 60,000 40,000 Domestic 41,378 42,586 2.9% 28.3% 20,000 European 23,918 22,571 -5.6% 15.0% 0 New light vehicle registrations Japanese 79,480 73,792 -7.2% 49.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019 Forecast Korean 12,294 11,623 -5.5% 7.7% Historical Data Source: IHS. Source: IHS. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the county from Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, FCA (excluding Alfa and FIAT), and 2013 thru 2018 and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2019. Tesla. Historical figures were revised by IHS and will differ slightly from those shown in previous releases. *Figures for Dec. ‘18 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Page 2 San Diego Auto Outlook MARKET TRACKER: QUARTERLY RESULTS County Market Had Small Decline in Fourth Quarter ‘18 QUARTERLY TREND QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE Percent Change in County and U.S. New Vehicle Market 4Q 2018 Registrations Versus Average for Previous Five Years 10.0% 7.5% The county market was off 2.8% in 4Q ‘18. County registrations were just below the average for U.S. was down less than 1%. the previous five years in the Fourth Quarter of ‘18. 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% 4Q '18* 38,136 -2.5% -5.0% % change versus year earlier -7.5% 4Q avg. 38,594 ('13 to '17) -10.0% Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18* County -6.6% -2.7% -4.5% -2.8% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 U.S. -1.3% 0.4% -1.4% -0.8% Quarterly new retail light vehicle registrations * Figures for December of 2018 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: IHS. * Figures for December of 2018 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: IHS. MARKET TRACKER: COUNTY MARKET VERSUS U.S. County Car Share Higher Than U.S. San Diego Auto Outlook County Market U.S. Market Covering Fourth Quarter 2018 Percent change in registrations -4.1% -0.8% 2018* vs. 2017 Published by: Passenger car market share Auto Outlook, Inc. 42.3% 30.8% 2018* PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Domestic brand market share 28.3% 42.0% Phone: 800-206-0102 2018* EMail: [email protected] Top 10 brands and market share Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz 2018* First Toyota 17.6% Toyota 13.4% Reproduction, including photocopying of this publication Second Honda 12.2% Ford 11.6% in whole or in part, is prohibited without the express per- Third Ford 9.2% Chevrolet 11.0% mission of Auto Outlook, Inc. Any material quoted must be attributed to San Diego Auto Outlook, published by Auto Fourth Nissan 6.1% Honda 10.0% Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the New Car Dealers Association Fifth Chevrolet 6.1% Nissan 6.4% San Diego County, and must also include the statement: Sixth Subaru 4.4% Jeep 6.1% “Data Source: IHS Markit.” Unforeseen events may affect Seventh Kia 4.2% Subaru 4.4% the forecast projections. Consequently, Auto Outlook is not Eighth Tesla 4.2% Hyundai 3.7% responsible for management decisions based on the con- Ninth Jeep 3.5% Kia 3.4% tent of San Diego Auto Outlook Tenth Hyundai 3.4% GMC 3.3% *December 2018 figures estimated by Auto Outlook Source: IHS Copyright Auto Outlook, Inc., January 2019 Covering Fourth Quarter 2018 Page 3 MARKET TRACKER: HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES Electric Vehicle Market Share Heads Higher in 4Q ‘18 Quarterly Alternative Powertrain Market Share Hybrid/electric vehicle (includes hybrid and electric vehicles) market share in Q4 ‘18: 8.0% 14.7% 7.0% 6.0% New Retail Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Registrations 5.0% Top 10 Selling Models in County - YTD '18 thru November 4.0% Rank Model Regs. 1 Tesla Model 3 3855 3.0% Market Share 2 Toyota Prius 2369 2.0% 3 Kia Niro 881 1.0% 4 Tesla Model S 651 0.0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 5 Ford Fusion 622 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18* 6 Chevrolet Bolt 588 7 Chevrolet Volt 553 Hybrid Plug In Hybrid Electric 8 Toyota Camry 552 The graph above shows hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle quarterly market share in the 9 Tesla Model X 540 county. *Fourth Quarter 2018 includes October and November. Source: IHS. 10 Honda Clarity 525 MARKET TRACKER: THREE YEAR CHANGE IN SEGMENT SHARES Non Luxury SUV Market Share Increases to 32% Segment Market Shares in County Segment Market Shares in County YTD 2015 thru November YTD 2018 thru November Non Luxury Md Non Luxury Md Size & Large Cars, Size & Large Cars, 15% Non Luxury SUVs, 10% Non Luxury SUVs, 24% 32% Luxury SUVs, 10% Luxury SUVs, 7% Non Luxury SUV Non Luxury SUV Market Share, YTD ‘15: Luxury & Sports Market Share, YTD ‘18: Cars, 11% Luxury & Sports Cars, 11% 24% 32% Pickups and Vans, Small Cars, 30% Pickups and Vans, 13% 15% Small Cars, 22% The two graphs above show market shares for primary segments during the first 11 months of 2015 and 2018. At Auto Outlook, we strive to provide sound and accurate analyses and forecasts based upon the data available to us. However, our forecasts are derived from third-party data and contain a number of assumptions made by Auto Outlook and its management, including, without limitation, the accuracy of the data compiled. As a result, Auto Outlook can make no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the data we provide or the forecasts or projections that we make based upon such data. Auto Outlook expressly disclaims any such warranties, and undue reliance should not be placed on any such data, forecasts, projections, or predictions. Auto Outlook undertakes no obligation to update or revise any predictions or forecasts, whether as a result of any new data, the occurrence of future events, or otherwise. Page 4 San Diego Auto Outlook BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART ONE Toyota, Tesla, and Honda Strong Performers in County Market The graph below provides an indicator of get” for the county market. Target registrations actual registrations exceeding calculated tar- brands that are popular in San Diego County are subtracted from actual registrations to de- gets by large margins. For instance, Toyota reg- (relative to the National standard), and those rive the measurement of sales performance. istrations exceeded the target by 6,307 units. that are not. Here’s how it works: For the top 30 selling brands, each brand’s share of the Brands at the top of the graph (i.e., Toyota, Tes- U.S. market is multiplied by retail registrations la, Honda, BMW, Mazda, Mercedes, and Lexus) in the county during 2018. This yields a “tar- are relatively strong sellers in the county, with San Diego County Retail Market Performance based on registrations for 2018* Actual registrations minus target (county industry registrations times U.S.
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