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Population and Activity of On-Road Vehicles in MOVES201X

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Population and Activity of On-Road Vehicles in MOVES201X Population and Activity of On-road Vehicles in MOVES201X August, 2017 Assessment and Standards Division Office of Transportation and Air Quality Office of Air and Radiation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Disclaimer This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or positions. It is intended to present technical analysis of issues using data that are currently available. The purpose of the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the public of technical developments which may form the basis for a final EPA decision, position, or regulatory action. Table of Contents 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 5 2. MOVES Vehicle and Activity Classifications ........................................................................ 9 2.1. HPMS Class .................................................................................................................... 9 2.2. Source Use Types ........................................................................................................... 9 2.3. Regulatory Classes ........................................................................................................ 10 2.4. Fuel Types ..................................................................................................................... 11 2.5. Road Types ................................................................................................................... 12 2.6. Source Classification Codes (SCC) .............................................................................. 13 2.7. Model Year Groups....................................................................................................... 13 2.8. Source Bins ................................................................................................................... 14 2.9. Allowable Vehicle Modeling Combinations ................................................................ 15 2.10. Default Inputs and Fleet and Activity Generators ........................................................ 17 3. VMT by Calendar Year and Vehicle Type ........................................................................... 19 3.1. Historic Vehicle Miles Traveled (1990 and 1999-2015) .............................................. 19 3.2. Projected Vehicle Miles Traveled (2016-2060) ............................................................ 21 4. Vehicle Populations by Calendar Year ................................................................................. 24 4.1. Historic Source Type Populations (1990 and 1999-2015) ............................................ 24 4.2. Projected Vehicle Populations (2016-2060) ................................................................. 28 5. Fleet Characteristics .............................................................................................................. 31 5.1. Source Type Definitions ............................................................................................... 31 5.1.1. Motorcycles............................................................................................................... 31 5.1.2. Passenger Cars .......................................................................................................... 31 5.1.3. Light-Duty Trucks .................................................................................................... 31 5.1.4. Buses ......................................................................................................................... 31 5.1.5. Single-Unit Trucks .................................................................................................... 32 5.1.6. Combination Trucks.................................................................................................. 32 5.2. Sample Vehicle Population ........................................................................................... 32 5.2.1. Motorcycles............................................................................................................... 35 5.2.2. Passenger Cars .......................................................................................................... 35 5.2.3. Light-Duty Trucks .................................................................................................... 36 5.2.4. Buses ......................................................................................................................... 36 5.2.5. Single-Unit Trucks .................................................................................................... 37 5.2.6. Combination Trucks.................................................................................................. 37 6. Vehicle Age-Related Characteristics .................................................................................... 38 6.1. Source Type Definitions ............................................................................................... 38 6.1.1. Base Age Distributions ............................................................................................. 38 6.1.2. Historic Age Distributions ........................................................................................ 41 6.1.3. Projected Age Distributions ...................................................................................... 42 6.2. Relative Mileage Accumulation Rate ........................................................................... 43 6.2.1. Motorcycles............................................................................................................... 43 6.2.2. Passenger Cars, Passenger Trucks and Light-Commercial Trucks .......................... 43 6.2.3. Buses ......................................................................................................................... 45 6.2.4. Other Heavy-Duty Vehicles ...................................................................................... 46 6.2.5. Motor Homes ............................................................................................................ 48 1 7. VMT Distribution of Source Type by Road Type ................................................................ 50 8. Average Speed Distributions ................................................................................................ 52 8.1. Light-Duty Average Speed Distributions ..................................................................... 52 8.2. Heavy-Duty Average Speed Distributions.................................................................... 58 9. Driving Schedules and Ramps .............................................................................................. 62 9.1. Driving Schedules ......................................................................................................... 62 9.2. Modeling of Ramps in MOVES ................................................................................... 67 10. Off-Network Idle Activity ................................................................................................ 68 10.1. Light-Duty Off-Network Idle ....................................................................................... 68 10.1.1. Verizon Telematics Data........................................................................................... 68 10.1.2. QA/QC of the Verizon Telematics Data ................................................................... 69 10.1.3. Estimating MOVES National Defaults from Verizon Telematics Data ................... 70 10.2. Heavy-Duty Off-Network Idle ...................................................................................... 74 10.2.1. NREL Fleet DNA Database ...................................................................................... 74 10.2.2. CE-CERT Study........................................................................................................ 77 10.2.3. Heavy-duty Off-network Idle Results ....................................................................... 78 10.3. Work-day Idle Methodology and Definitions ............................................................... 81 11. Hotelling Activity ............................................................................................................. 83 11.1. National Default Hotelling Rate ................................................................................... 83 11.2. Hotelling Activity Distribution ..................................................................................... 86 12. Engine Start Activity......................................................................................................... 88 12.1. Light-Duty Start Activity .............................................................................................. 89 12.1.1. Light-Duty Starts Per Day ........................................................................................ 89 12.1.2. Light-Duty Engine Start Temporal Distributions ..................................................... 89 12.1.3. Light-Duty Engine Soak Distributions ..................................................................... 90 12.2. Heavy-Duty Start Activity ............................................................................................ 92 12.2.1. NREL Fleet DNA Database ...................................................................................... 92 12.2.1.1. Starts Per Day ......................................................................................................
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