Stock Assessment of the North Carolina Blue Crab (Callinectes Sapidus), 1995–2016
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Stock Assessment of the North Carolina Blue Crab (Callinectes sapidus), 1995–2016 Prepared by North Carolina Division of Marine Fisheries Blue Crab Plan Development Team March 2018 NCDMF SAP-SAR-2018-02 This document may be cited as: NCDMF (North Carolina Division of Marine Fisheries). 2018. Stock assessment of the North Carolina blue crab (Callinectes sapidus), 1995–2016. North Carolina Division of Marine Fisheries, NCDMF SAP-SAR-2018-02, Morehead City, North Carolina. 144 p. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was prepared by the North Carolina Division of Marine Fisheries (NCDMF) Blue Crab Plan Development Team (PDT). The members are Jason Rock (co-lead), Corrin Flora (co- lead), Katy West (Mentor), Tina Moore, Joe Facendola, Jeff Dobbs, Laura Lee, Yan Li (lead analyst), Odell Williams, Alan Bianchi, Adam Stemle, and Anne Deaton. Thanks also to Kathy Rawls, NCDMF Fisheries Management Section Chief, and Catherine Blum, NCDMF Fishery Management Plan and Rulemaking Coordinator. Amy Flowers provided extensive assistance reviewing and editing the report. We would like to thank the members of the NCDMF Management Review Team for their review and comments. We are especially grateful to the external peer reviewers for offering their time and effort to review the blue crab stock assessment: Jeffrey Brust at the New Jersey Marine Fisheries Administration, Dr. Robert Leaf at The University of Southern Mississippi, Genine McClair at the Maryland Department of Natural Resources, and Dr. Ed Hale at the Delaware Division of Fish and Wildlife. i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The North Carolina Fisheries Reform Act requires that fishery management plans be developed for all commercially and recreationally significant species or fisheries that comprise State marine or estuarine resources. The goal of these plans shall be to ensure the long-term viability of the State’s commercially and recreationally significant species or fisheries. Stock assessments are the primary tools used by managers to assist in determining the status of stocks and developing appropriate management measures to ensure the long-term viability of stocks. In December 1998, the North Carolina Division of Marine Fisheries (NCDMF) adopted a Fishery Management Plan for the blue crab resource. The 2004 amendment (Amendment 1) adopted a spawning stock trigger and associated measures to protect the blue crab spawning stock. Amendment 2 (2013) repealed the spawning stock trigger and associated measures and adopted the traffic light approach in conjunction with an adaptive management plan to manage the blue crab stock. The 2016 revision to Amendment 2 implemented additional management measures (no harvest of immature females, no harvest of dark sponge crabs from April 1 to April 30, no targeted crab dredging, and adding a third cull ring to crab pots) because a management threshold identified in Amendment 2 was reached. Amendment 3 to the Fishery Management Plan is currently in development and this stock assessment was performed in support of the amendment. A comprehensive stock assessment approach, the sex-specific two-stage model, was applied to available data to assess the status of North Carolina’s blue crab stock during 1995–2016. Data were available from commercial fishery monitoring programs and several fishery-independent surveys. The two-stage model was developed based on the catch-survey analysis designed for species lacking information on the age structure of the population. The model synthesized information from multiple sources, tracked population dynamics of male and female recruits and fully recruited animals, estimated critical demographic and fishery parameters such as natural and fishing mortality, and thus, provided a comprehensive assessment of blue crab status in North Carolina. The hierarchical Bayesian approach was used to estimate model parameters, which can incorporate uncertainty associated with the data and model assumptions. The model estimated an overall declining trend in catch, relative abundance indices, population size of both male and female recruits and fully recruited crabs, with a rebound starting in 2007. Females had higher natural mortality estimates than males. The estimated fishing mortality remained high before 2007, and decreased by approximately 50% afterwards. The stock status of North Carolina blue crab in the current assessment (2016) was determined based maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Based on the results of this assessment, the North Carolina blue crab resource in 2016 is overfished with a probability of 0.98, given the average spawner abundance in 2016 being estimated at 50 million (below the threshold estimate of 64 million). And, overfishing is occurring in 2016 with a probability of 0.52, given the average fishing mortality in 2016 being estimated at 1.48 (above the fishing mortality threshold estimate of 1.46). A number of recommendations for research and monitoring are offered to identify how deficiencies in the understanding of blue crab stock dynamics can be addressed. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................. i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ ii LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................................... v LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................ vi 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................ 9 1.1 The Resource ......................................................................................................................... 9 1.2 Life History ......................................................................................................................... 10 1.2.1 Stock Definitions .......................................................................................................... 10 1.2.2 Movements & Migration .............................................................................................. 10 1.2.3 Age & Size ................................................................................................................... 11 1.2.4 Growth .......................................................................................................................... 12 1.2.5 Reproduction ................................................................................................................ 12 1.2.6 Mortality ....................................................................................................................... 13 1.2.7 Food & Feeding Habits ................................................................................................ 14 1.3 Habitat ................................................................................................................................. 14 1.3.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 14 1.3.2 Spawning Habitat ......................................................................................................... 14 1.3.3 Nursery & Juvenile Habitat .......................................................................................... 14 1.3.4 Adult Habitat ................................................................................................................ 15 1.3.5 Habitat Issues & Concerns ........................................................................................... 16 1.4 Description of Fisheries ....................................................................................................... 16 1.4.1 Commercial Fishery ..................................................................................................... 16 1.4.2 Recreational Fishery ..................................................................................................... 17 1.5 Fisheries Management ......................................................................................................... 18 1.5.1 Management Authority ................................................................................................. 18 1.5.2 Management Unit Definition ........................................................................................ 18 1.5.3 Regulatory History ....................................................................................................... 18 1.5.4 Current Regulations ...................................................................................................... 19 1.5.5 Management Performance ............................................................................................ 22 1.6 Assessment History ............................................................................................................. 22 1.6.1 Review of Previous Methods & Results ....................................................................... 22 1.6.2 Previous Research Recommendations .......................................................................... 22 2 DATA ......................................................................................................................................... 23 iii 2.1 Fisheries-Dependent ...........................................................................................................