UNIVERSITY of CALIFORNIA Los Angeles Revolutionary Waves: The
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UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Los Angeles Revolutionary Waves: The International Effects of Threats to Domestic Order A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction Of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Chad Elkins Nelson 2014 © Copyright by Chad Elkins Nelson 2014 ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION Revolutionary Waves: The International Effects of Threats to Domestic Order By Chad Elkins Nelson Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science University of California, Los Angeles, 2014 Professor Arthur A. Stein, Chair When do leaders fear the domestic repercussions of revolutions abroad, and how does the prospect of such revolutionary waves affect international affairs? I argue that the fear of contagion is not primarily derived from the infecting agent – whether the revolutionary state serves as a model or acts as a platform. Instead, the fear of contagion is largely driven by the characteristics of the host, namely the presence of significant preexisting opposition groups in the host of the same character as the revolution. And I argue that when leaders fear revolution spreading, it will have a discernible effect on patterns of international cooperation and conflict: they will be hostile towards the revolutionary state and they will align with other states that face the same threat, sometimes in contrast to geopolitical pressures. I examine the reaction to the democratic revolutions under the ancien régime (the American Revolution and the Dutch Patriot Revolt), the wave of liberal revolutions in Europe in 1820-1, and the Iranian Islamist Revolution in the Middle East. The findings not only address the international effects of revolutions, but also the larger issues of when, why, and to what extent ideological differences between states ii affect international relations and how domestic instability interacts with international politics. iii The dissertation of Chad Elkins Nelson is approved. Michael Mann Marc Tractenberg Robert F. Trager Arthur A. Stein, Committee Chair University of California, Los Angeles 2014 iv Table of Contents Chapter 1: Revolutions, Regime Types, and International Politics..........................................1 Literature Review ........................................................................................................................2 Argument ...................................................................................................................................20 Data and Method........................................................................................................................27 Chapter 2: Democratic Revolutions and the Ancien Régime ..................................................36 The American Revolution..........................................................................................................38 The Dutch Revolt.......................................................................................................................45 Domestic Opposition in the Ancien Régime .............................................................................50 International Relations prior to the American Revolution ........................................................63 International Relations of the American Revolution.................................................................64 The American Revolution and the Ancien Régime...................................................................88 International Relations prior to the Dutch Patriot Revolt..........................................................90 International Relations of the Patriot Revolt .............................................................................91 The Patriot Revolution and the Ancien Régime......................................................................116 Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................117 Chapter 3: Liberal Revolutions and the Concert of Europe .................................................124 Revolutions of 1820-21 ...........................................................................................................125 Domestic Opposition after the Napoleonic Wars ....................................................................129 International Relations prior to the Revolutions......................................................................149 International Relations of the Revolts of 1820-21...................................................................158 Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................182 Chapter 4: The Islamic Revolution and the Middle East ......................................................191 The Iranian Revolution............................................................................................................192 Domestic Opposition in the Middle East.................................................................................200 International Relations of the Middle East prior to the Iranian Revolution ............................211 International Relations of the Iranian Revolution ...................................................................219 Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................261 Chapter 5: Conclusion...............................................................................................................267 Works Cited ...............................................................................................................................275 v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I thank my dissertation committee for their guidance: Michael Mann, Marc Tractenberg, and especially my advisor, Arthur Stein, and Robert Trager. I also thank my colleagues at UCLA and farther afield, who provided helpful and sometimes critical feedback: Joslyn Barnhart, Eric Bordenkircher, Matt Gottfried, Ron Gurantz, Or Honig, Dov Levin, David Palkki, and Leah Halverson Sievering. I received a Herbert F. York fellowship from Institute for Global Conflict and Cooperation that enabled me to finish the dissertation. Most of all, I am grateful for the support of my wife, Kimber. She bore three children in the space it took me to get this out. vi VITA EDUCATION Columbia University, New York, NY M.A., Political Science, 2002 Fields: International Relations, Comparative Politics Brigham Young University, Provo, UT B.A., Philosophy, 2000 Minors: Political Science, International Development PAPERS and CONFERENCES “‘My Foresight does not Embrace Such Remote Fears’: Britain, France and the Emergence of American Hegemony” • Presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association Conference, Toronto, March 2014 “Revolution and War: Saddam’s Decision to Invade Iran” • Presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association Conference, San Francisco, April 2013 • Presented at the International Studies Association West Conference, Pasadena, September 2013 “Revolutionary Contagion and International Politics: The Ancien Régime and the Concert of Europe Compared” • Presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association Conference, San Francisco, April 2013 “Demonstration Effects and the American Revolution” • Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association Conference, Chicago, April 2012. FELLOWSHIPS • Herbert F. York Global Dissertation Fellowship, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, 2013-2014 • Collegium of University Teaching Fellowship, UCLA, 2012-2013 vii Chapter 1: Revolutions, Regime Types, and International Politics In 1775, the tension between the American colonists and their British overlords broke into open revolt. From the beginning of what would be dubbed the American Revolution, Americans were supported by the French, at first covertly, and from 1778 on in an open alliance. Their help was decisive in securing American independence and an end to the conflict in 1783. In that same year, the Dutch patriots revolted against the stadtholder, who had aligned himself with England. The absolutist French monarchy again supported the patriots, but the Revolution was eventually crushed in 1787 by Prussian military intervention. The response of states to these revolutions is consistent with realist expectations – states exploiting revolutions for geopolitical gain, taking sides with the opposing side of one’s rival, regardless of ideological differences between states. In 1820-21, revolutions broke out in Spain, Portugal, Naples, Piedmont, and Greece. Besides Portugal, which was protected by the British, the continental powers eschewed exploiting these disturbances and instead coordinated their policies to suppress the revolutions. For example, the powers, only a few years after the experience of the Napoleonic wars, put aside their fears of French expansion and allowed the French army to invade Spain to restore the rule of King Ferdinand VII. This outcome is impossible to explain without understanding the fear of leaders that these revolutions would inspire similar movements in their own realm. A change in the legitimating principles of a state threatened the internal security of other states in the system and initiated a pattern of conflict and cooperation directly contrary to realist expectations. Existing theories of international relations do not explain the differences in these cases.