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The Success of Middle Eastern Monarchies and the Arab Spring Georgia State University ScholarWorks @ Georgia State University Political Science Theses Department of Political Science 8-8-2017 Monarchy and Effective Governance: The Success of Middle Eastern Monarchies and the Arab Spring Michael Westberg Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.gsu.edu/political_science_theses Recommended Citation Westberg, Michael, "Monarchy and Effective Governance: The Success of Middle Eastern Monarchies and the Arab Spring." Thesis, Georgia State University, 2017. https://scholarworks.gsu.edu/political_science_theses/69 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Department of Political Science at ScholarWorks @ Georgia State University. It has been accepted for inclusion in Political Science Theses by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks @ Georgia State University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. MONARCHY AND EFFECTIVE GOVERNANCE: THE SUCCESS OF MIDDLE EASTERN MONARCHIES AND THE ARAB SPRING by MICHAEL WESTBERG Under the Direction of Michael Herb, PhD ABSTRACT The purpose of this thesis is to examine the outcomes of the 2011 Arab Spring from the perspective of regime types within the Middle East and North Africa. The intense year of protest that spread throughout the Arab world had disparate effects between countries which this paper investigates. Utilizing an institutional approach, I separate the Arab world into monarchic and republican systems relying on data provided by the Arab Barometer II and III. Theoretically, I suggest, and find evidence to support, that monarchies were more resistant to the Arab protests because desires for change were not as strong within these countries because of the historical arrangements within these countries. INDEX WORDS: Monarchy, Mixed regimes, Autocracy, Institutions, 2011 Arab Spring, Middle East MONARCHY AND EFFECTIVE GOVERNANCE: THE SUCCESS OF MIDDLE EASTERN MONARCHIES AND THE ARAB SPRING by MICHAEL WESTBERG A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts in the College of Arts and Sciences Georgia State University 2017 Copyright by Michael Keith Westberg 2017 MONARCHY AND EFFECTIVE GOVERNANCE: THE SUCCESS OF MIDDLE EASTERN MONARCHIES AND THE ARAB SPRING by MICHAEL WESTBERG Committee Chair: Michael Herb Committee: Carrie Manning Charles Hankla Electronic Version Approved: Office of Graduate Studies College of Arts and Sciences Georgia State University August 2017 v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to personally thank Dr. Michael Herb, Dr. Charles Hankla, and Dr. Carrie Manning for assisting me in this endeavor. They have provided their time and patience and given me the critical responses necessary to mold this paper into an articulate thesis. Furthermore, I would like to thank them and the other professors of Georgia State University, whose classes I’ve attended, for imparting the skills and knowledge to make me a better student and a better researcher. I would also like to acknowledge and thank my fellow peers and cohort for the confidence and support they provided over the years at Georgia State. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................................... V LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................... VIII LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................... IX 1 INTRODUCTION: ACCOUNTING FOR INSTABILITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST ... 1 1.1 The Middle East and the Indicators of the Arab Spring .......................................... 2 1.2 Purpose and Terms ....................................................................................................... 5 1.3 Organization and Expected Results ............................................................................ 7 2 LITERATURE REVIEW: EXPLANATIONS OF ARAB REGIME SURVIVAL......... 8 2.1 MENA Institutions and the Structure of Regimes................................................... 10 2.2 Modernization: Desire for Reform and Transitions to Democracy ....................... 14 2.3 Institutional Choice and Government Efficacy ....................................................... 18 2.4 Alternative Explanations of Regime Survival .......................................................... 24 3 CASE STUDY: A BRIEF CASE STUDY OF THE ARAB SPRING ............................. 27 3.1 Arab Republics and Protest Successes ...................................................................... 27 3.2 Arab Monarchies and Resistance to Protest ............................................................ 30 4 THEORY: EXPLANING MONARCHICAL SURVIVAL IN THE MENA ................. 32 4.1 Waldnerian Theory of Nascent Regime Building .................................................... 32 4.2 The Theoretical Implications of Clientelism ............................................................ 35 4.3 Hypotheses................................................................................................................... 38 5 DATA AND RESULTS ....................................................................................................... 39 5.1 Data Source and the Three Main Models ................................................................ 40 vii 5.2 Model 1: Economic Outlook ...................................................................................... 45 5.3 Model 2: Democratic Compatibility ......................................................................... 49 5.4 Model 3: Satisfaction in Government ....................................................................... 51 5.5 Model 4: Regime Types and Oil Wealth ................................................................... 53 6 CONCLUSION: BEYOND THE ARAB SPRING........................................................... 55 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................. 58 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 MENA Countries and Regime Types before the Arab Spring ...................................................... 6 Table 2.1 GCC’s GDP per Capita Compared to Other Regions ................................................................. 17 Table 2.2 GDP per Capita as Compared between Arab Countries in 2010 (in US Dollars) ....................... 19 Table 5.1 List of Countries Providing Data ................................................................................................ 41 Table 5.2 Summary Statistics for Variables for ABII and ABIII ............................................................... 43 Table 5.3 Model 1: Cross Tab for Regime Type and Economic Outlook .................................................. 46 Table 5.4 Model 1: Ordered Logistic Estimates of Economic Outlook Probabilities ................................. 47 Table 5.5 Model 1: Simulated Quantity of Interest Test for Economic Outlook in Monarchies ................ 48 Table 5.6 Model 2: Risk of Democratization per Regime Type ................................................................. 50 Table 5.7 Model 3: Government Efficiency per Regime Type ................................................................... 52 Table 5.8 Government Efficiency per Regime Type with Oil .................................................................... 54 ix LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 Unemployment Rate per Select MENA Countries .................................................................... 21 Figure 4.1 Rule of Law Estimate 2010 ....................................................................................................... 37 1 1 INTRODUCTION: ACCOUNTING FOR INSTABILITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST In February of 2011, the streets of Cairo were filled with celebrating Egyptians. They had just gotten word that the long reigned Hosni Mubarak had just stepped down. Leila Fadel of the Washington Post wrote, “On Friday, pro-democracy demonstrators achieved through peaceful and determined protests what only a month ago had seemed impossible: they forced President Hosni Mubarak from office” (Fadel 2011). Across the Arab world in 2011, longtime rulers whose regime security was once thought to be unassailable were ousted by popular demands. An atypical event in Middle Eastern regime transitions which had historically had ruled and died by their militaries. The popular uprisings were dubbed “The Arab Spring” and culminated in the dismantling of the Egyptian, Tunisian, Yemeni, and Libyan regimes as protestors took to the street demanding an end to the political and economic woes that had plagued those countries for the past decades (Owen 2012). Those regimes that did survive still had to contend with a disgruntled citizenry and a post Arab Spring environment. Despite the regional effects of the populist movement, countries were disparately affected with the concentration of destabilization hitting the Arab republics and sparing the monarchies (Owen 2012, 2). During 2011, Bahraini sheik, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, felt the impact of the Arab Spring as mostly Shia protestors took to the streets to challenge the Sunni government. Expectations were flummoxed and a wait and see attitude was taken to see how the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states would react while having to deal with their own possible protests (El Alaoui 2013). Instead of the domino effect that had happened in neighboring republics, the protestors,
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